The Focus Group Podcast – S6 Ep19: "What a Difference a Year Makes" (with Jonathan Chait)

Date: January 10, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: Jonathan Chait (The Atlantic)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Sarah Longwell and her guest Jonathan Chait dig into the latest attitudes of swing voters toward Donald Trump’s second term, following focus groups with two key types of voters: disapproving 2024 Trump voters, and voters who switched from Biden to Trump in 2024. The episode centers on the dramatic changes in public perception of Trump over the past year, vivid voter frustration with the Venezuela war and economic inequality, and shifting myths about Trump as a populist billionaire. Chait and Longwell parse swing voter responses and the deeper political and policy dynamics that underpin them, with special attention to the supposed "America First" foreign policy and the realities of economic populism.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Surprises and Dynamics of Trump’s Second Term

• Escalation and Unexpected Moves

  • Venezuela War: Chait and Longwell both cite surprise at the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, which they had not predicted despite believing a second Trump term would be turbulent.
    • Chait (03:13): “War in Venezuela…was maybe not worse than my worst expectations, but just outside of my expectations.”
    • Motives behind Venezuela intervention (anger at losing Nobel Peace Prize, oil interests, domestic political quirks) are discussed with incredulity.
  • RFK Jr. at HHS: Unexpected that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would be put in charge of the Department of Health and Human Services.
  • Tariffs and Immigration: Trump’s escalation of tariffs went beyond predictions. No surprise at his overreach on immigration.

• Dismantling Alliances and "America First" Contradictions

  • Efforts to undermine NATO and global order were expected, but the particular focus on Venezuela was not.
  • Trump's actions undercut his own "peacetime president" rhetoric and isolationist branding.

2. Focus Group Reactions – Disapproving Trump Voters

Key Voter Sentiments (07:43–12:11)

• Polarization, Economic Discontent, and Systemic Mistrust

  • Civil discourse is dead; economic recovery feels exclusionary ("Netflix is thriving, regular people are hurting").
  • Focus on wealth concentration: “Americans have lost over $1 trillion in their wealth in the last year, while...the top 1% has gained over $10 trillion.” (08:26)
  • Trump accused of media manipulation and empowering the ultra-wealthy.

• Betrayed Expectations and Erosion of Trust

  • “Every single thing [the never Trumpers] told me is happening.” (09:22)
  • Discontent with his handling of issues like the Epstein files, open profanity, and rhetoric.
  • Former Trump supporters feel less safe, especially Jewish voters who saw Trump as bulwark against antisemitism — but now perceive increased danger.
    • “I just wanted to be safe. And I thought Trump would be able to send a message that he wasn’t going to put up with any of that nonsense. And it doesn’t feel like it’s panned out.” (11:14)

Host/Guest Analysis

• Chait finds it notable how swing voter concerns lack ideological consistency but register a general sense of decline and unease.
• Longwell highlights the "big business is thriving, regular people are screwed" narrative now attaching directly to Trump's leadership — a shift from discontent with Biden.
• Chait points out that Trump no longer bothers to even pretend to champion the working class, unlike earlier political positioning.

3. Focus Group Reactions – 2024 Biden-to-Trump Voters

Key Voter Sentiments (21:49–25:37)

• Economic Anxiety and Social Program Cutbacks
  • Fears over job loss, stricter food stamp (SNAP) requalification, impact on children and families.
    • “I keep hearing this thing about the food stamp program...got people like nervous and scared. I think we going in the wrong direction…” (21:49)
  • Disillusionment with Trump favoring the wealthy (“galas at Mar-a-Lago…so unbelievably ostentatious”) while regular people struggle.
    • “There’s just two extremes of wealth now...stock market’s flying, the wealthy are getting wealthier, and what’s happening to the rest of us…?” (25:00)
• Growing Cynicism Towards Trump’s Motives
  • Perception that “he’s really doing things just to satisfy himself…not really looking out for the average person.” (22:29)
  • Venezuela intervention seen as caring more about "pomp and circumstance" and foreign oil than Americans.
    • “Looking at the Venezuela thing...his interests are not really on Americans at all. It seems like you’re handing out money to other countries when you should be focusing on us.” (25:37)

Host/Guest Analysis

• Longwell emphasizes the collapse of the "Trump is immune to corruption because he’s rich" myth — a foundational belief for many swing voters.
  • “That facade is falling away...part of the end of a central mythology of Trump, 100%.” (27:41)
• Chait: “He just talks about all the Democrats he wants to put in jail and he’s just completely interdirected in his public messaging.” (27:41)

4. The Policy Void and Populist Opportunity

• Health care, Taxes, and Economic Populism

  • Both host and guest agree the core voter demand is simple economic populism: “Tax the rich. Talk about taxing the rich. Everyone should do that. You should talk about it and you should implement it.” (29:19)
  • Voters are feeling direct pain from higher health care costs and want restoration—even simple rollback of Trump cuts would be popular.
    • “We’re just going to fix all the stuff that Trump has broken. That’s our job.” — Chait (31:42)

• Universal Health Care?

  • Longwell wonders if the moment is ripe for a bigger swing at health care reform.
  • Chait is skeptical: People are risk-averse and fear losing even imperfect employer insurance; backlash likely.

5. Venezuela War: Motivation, Reaction, and the "America First" Brand

Voter Scepticism and Disquiet (36:35–41:10)

• Mixed or Negative Reactions to Venezuela Intervention
  • Doubts about motives: Is it oil? Is it about Trump's ego (Nobel Prize envy)? Is he just after credit?
  • Scepticism that intervention helps, coupled with concern about civilian costs and U.S. priorities.
    • “I always want to know what’s the motive behind it, what’s in it for him?...he can get the credit or it relates back to him...” (39:17)
  • Some parallels to past failed interventions in Latin America: “Every time the US has gone into these countries, it has been worse for their country.” (38:28)
  • Worry over militarism: “We dropped bombs on eight different countries and he’s only been in office for a year. What’s next year…13 countries?” (39:59)
• Violation of "America First" Promises
  • Many voters thought “America First” meant not spending abroad.
  • As Longwell notes, grassroots want “our tax dollars…to go into American education…to subsidize their health care,” not war.

Chait’s Analysis

• For Trump, "America First" has always been predatory rather than isolationist, about demonstrating strength and extracting resources.

• Chait notes Trump still believes (anachronistically) that wealth comes from controlling resources—despite evidence to the contrary (resource curse).

  • “These are the iron laws that have always determined global power.” (Trump quote) (49:10)
  • Chait: “He thinks it’s a positive tendency. And the reason that most...economists…call it the resource curse…tend to fall into the hands of a kleptocratic elite…” (49:50)

6. The "Resource Curse" and Gilded Age Imagery

• Chait delves into the idea that natural resource wealth often brings corruption and underdevelopment — and Trump’s policies mimic that.
• Trump apparently envisions a new Gilded Age, with billionaires at the center of power.
• Voter anger centers on visible, ostentatious wealth (Mar-a-Lago galas, billionaire friends) while costs for ordinary people spiral.

7. Trump’s Health and Voter Perception

Focus Group Themes (52:27–54:54)

• Both candidates’ ages are a concern, but voters see Trump’s issues as physical, not cognitive, unlike Biden.
• Rumors circulate about Trump’s health (Crohn’s disease, cancer), but voters see this as normal age-related decline; not viewed as mentally unfit.
  • “I don’t think it’s a mental thing with Trump…there is a difference…like, let’s say he got Crohn’s disease and you having, like, dementia or Alzheimer’s.” (54:04)

Chait and Longwell’s Take

• Trump’s explanations about his health and aspirin usage exemplify his odd theories (“I want nice, thin blood pouring through my heart. Does that make sense?” (55:12))
• Chait: Difficult to detect Trump’s decline because his speech and reasoning were always meandering and illogical.
• Longwell reflects that Biden’s decline is obvious because he tries to make sense; Trump simply continues rambling.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Jonathan Chait on Focus Groups (02:04):
  • “Every time I hear the swing voters, I want to first kill myself and then kill them. And I’m excited for a different experience.”
• On Venezuela Motives (05:26):
  • “I’m going to war because I’m angry I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize.”
• Swing Voter Epiphany (12:11):
  • “The sole reason I voted for him this last time was solely because as a Jewish person, I felt unsafe...I thought Trump would be able to send a message that he wasn’t going to put up with any...nonsense. And it doesn’t feel like it’s panned out. I actually feel less safe.”
• Chait’s Shtick (27:41):
  • “He just talks about all the Democrats he wants to put in jail and he’s just completely interdirected in his public messaging.”
• Resource Curse Analysis (49:11):
  • “There’s an inverse relationship between how many resources you have and the wealth of your country. Right. But like Trump isn’t aware of this...He thinks it’s a positive tendency.”
• Host-Guest Banter on Health (55:12):
  • Chait: “They say aspirin is good for thinning out the blood, and I don’t want thick blood pouring through my heart. I want nice, thin blood pouring through my heart. Does that make sense?”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction and Surprises in Trump 2.0: 01:06–06:12
• Disapproving Trump Voters Respond: 07:43–12:11
• Analysis of Economic Discontent: 13:38–15:44
• Biden-to-Trump Voters Speak: 21:49–25:37
• Collapsing Trump Myths and Populist Gaps: 26:03–29:19
• Democratic Messaging and Health Care Debate: 29:19–36:13
• Venezuela Intervention — Voter Response: 36:35–41:10
• Deeper Dive: Trump’s “America First" and Resource Thinking: 45:20–50:15
• Trump’s Health and Cognition: 52:01–54:54

Takeaways

• Growing Swing Voter Disillusionment: Once pliant or hopeful, many former Trump voters now sound distinctly alienated, citing broken promises on the economy, elitism, and foreign entanglements.
• Populist Opportunity for Democrats: Voters’ increasing focus on economic inequality opens a path for tax-the-rich rhetoric and simple reversals of unpopular Trump policies.
• Foreign Policy Fallout: Trump’s “America First” rhetoric is colliding with military interventions that even his base views as betrayals — and old justifications no longer hold sway.
• Health Concerns: Age is an issue for both Biden and Trump, but voters only see cognitive decline as disqualifying; they rationalize Trump’s many oddities as “normal.”
• Shifting Political Myths: The myth of Trump as an outsider immune to donor and oligarch influence is dissolving among critical swing constituencies.

This summary faithfully conveys the flow, tone, and argument of the episode, providing a detailed guide for those who haven’t listened, with ample attribution and integrated timestamps.