The Focus Group Podcast

S6 Ep20: Playing Stupid Games, Winning Stupid Prizes

Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Bill Kristol
Date: January 17, 2026
Theme: Examining key Trump-era news stories, the shifting nature of conservatism, and Americans' reactions through focus groups, with insights into accountability, shifting attitudes, and the influence of elite behavior on public trust.

Episode Overview

This episode dives into three polarizing recent news stories in Trump’s America:

• The killing of a US citizen by an ICE officer in Minneapolis
• The ongoing saga of the Epstein files and who is being protected
• The criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol discuss how public outrage—or lack thereof—emerges around these stories, what the focus group participants reveal about American voters’ attitudes, and how conservatism itself has changed over the Trump era. Memorable focus group moments and their implications are analyzed, all against the backdrop of what it means to live in an era where outrage fatigue, misinformation, and elite insulation shape perceptions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflections on Ten Years with Trump

[03:01]–[08:15]

• Sarah and Bill reflect on how much has changed since Trump’s rise, both personally and in the conservative movement.
• Bill Kristol muses on how the world’s radical changes forced reevaluation:

  "It's a little weird for the world to change as radically as it has...it'd be kind of crazy to just obstinately say, well, the world has changed. But I was exactly right where I was." — Bill Kristol [04:28]

• Both admit some policy shifts, with Bill focusing on underestimating the persistence of racial, gender, and nativist prejudices.

  “I underestimated the stickiness of the old prejudices...and their ability to be flamed up once again.” — Bill Kristol [06:08]

• Sarah details moving from reflexive pro-police/pro-border-security stances to real alarm at the state’s role under Trump, including a newfound support for more progressive taxation of billionaires, given their political influence.

2. ICE, Policing, and Shifting Attitudes

[08:15]–[11:59]

• Both discuss how radicalized ICE behavior under Trump’s direction fundamentally alters what “law enforcement” means, and how centrist/conservative resistance to “abolish ICE” rhetoric now meets uncomfortable reality.

  “You could be pro-police and anti-ICE. This is where I get slightly annoyed at our centrist friends...the situation is different.” — Bill Kristol [11:02]

• Sarah questions the growing paramilitary character of ICE, and how it blurs the boundaries between legitimate border enforcement and political intimidation.

3. Focus Group Insights: The Renee Good Shooting by ICE

[11:59]–[19:26]

• Focus group of Biden-to-Trump voters reveals confusion and ambivalence:
  • Many are unsure what to believe amid AI/media-fueled uncertainty.
  • Some default to victim-blaming or “play stupid games, win stupid prizes” sentiment.

    “My parents always told me, you…you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.” — Focus group participant [14:10]

  • Others question excessive force and ICE’s escalating role.
• Sarah and Bill’s reactions:

  “He shot her in the face three times. And people didn’t actually want to say that in the focus group...they don’t want to confront the fact [of what Trump’s policies incentivize].” — Bill Kristol [16:56]

• The killing and its official cover-up represent for both hosts a terrifying blend of dehumanization, lack of accountability, and the chilling normalization of authoritarian tactics.

4. The Power and Importance of Public Reaction

[24:17]–[24:59]

• Sarah notes that mass public reaction can still shape outcomes, referencing how the video of the ICE shooting broke through to a majority of Americans and raising the example of Black Lives Matter’s impact on police scrutiny.

5. The Epstein Files: Distrust, Outrage, & Elite Impunity

[27:47]–[36:54]

• Focus group participants show deep bipartisan anger, not just at crimes but at the cover-up:

  “We all know women, girls are brought to the island and taken advantage of. We just want to know the names. It doesn’t seem that complicated.” — Focus group participant [29:47]

• Sarah and Bill express frustration at political media’s tepid pursuit of the story, given persistent voter anger.

  “I continue to believe [Epstein] has unleveraged political utility. It is underappreciated how big a difference it could make.” — Sarah Longwell [34:51]

• Bill: “Cover ups don't work when you're sort of part way, you know, down the cover up...There's no logical argument now at this point for, like, well, we've seen some of it but we're not going to see the rest.” [33:05]
• Discussion of how the “Epstein class” serves as a symbol for voters’ sense that both parties protect powerful abusers, undermining all trust.

6. MAGA First vs. GOP First: The Paradox of Republican Identity

[41:03]–[46:18]

• Focus group with “MAGA first” Republicans is asked whom in the GOP they dislike; they mention Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene (before her exit), reflecting ongoing internal fractures.

  “They pull out a version of the Constitution and they stand on it and they get on TV and rant...The party comes above the Constitution. Everyone knows that.” — Bill Kristol [45:10]

• Both Longwell and Kristol marvel at the pure personality cult around Trump, which dwarfs even Reagan’s in the 1980s.

  “The degree of the cult of personality...is remarkable. That was like 1/1000th of where we are with Trump though, and it’s not healthy.” — Bill Kristol [45:10]

7. The Republican Party’s Future After Trump

[48:57]–[50:49]

• Kristol doubts anyone will inherit Trump’s grip on the party:

  “Other people just don’t have this same connection. Right. Other people aren’t going to just be like, whatever JD’s Vance says is exactly what I believe.” — Sarah Longwell [48:57]

• Both agree that Trump leaving office deeply unpopular (the “Bush line of 32%”) is essential for any GOP reckoning and possible renewal.

8. Powell Investigation: Erosion of Norms and Elite Accountability

[50:49]–[56:43]

• Focus group participants are generally aware of the Trump administration’s criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell but seem unalarmed—seeing it more as "business as usual" in Trump’s America.

  “There’s a lot of kind of an eye for an eye type stuff...I’m abstaining judgment, at least for now.” — Focus group participant [51:28]

• Sarah and Bill highlight the dangerous normalization of political “lawfare” against independent officials.

  “You cannot have politically motivated investigations of your enemies. It’s very unhealthy for the system.” — Bill Kristol [52:32]

• Both worry about the lack of elite outcry, observing that when elites acquiesce rather than sound the alarm, it diminishes public understanding of threats to democracy.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It's a little weird for the world to change as radically as it has...But I would still defend the Bush, McCain, Romney Republican Party as a very, very, very different thing from Trump.” — Bill Kristol [04:28]
• “You could be a moderate...on a lot of policy issues. That doesn’t mean that in the tactical situation...you might not agree with fairly radical...policies...You do have to think in a fresh way.” — Bill Kristol [06:55]
• “Masked agents walking through American streets...I'm now going to evaluate whether I think Democrats should control the purse strings in such a way to say no, we are not going to fund ICE more.” — Sarah Longwell [08:15]
• “He shot her in the face three times...And now these were Trump voters...you have a psychological incentive to make it much murkier than it is.” — Bill Kristol [16:56]
• “The lies out of the gate...they want you to know she's a lesbian...see what he had to put up with from that mouthy lesbian.” — Sarah Longwell [19:26]
• “It's one of the scariest things...it brings together a bunch of things—Trump having this sort of personal army, them not being particularly well trained, them going in and ratcheting up tensions immediately.” — Sarah Longwell [22:29]
• “I continue to believe [Epstein] has unleveraged political utility...people dismiss it because they're like, oh, well, nobody's ever going to abandon Trump over that. And I'm like, some of them won't. But...when they think about it, they're like, this is insane.” — Sarah Longwell [34:51]
• “People are talking about Epstein at their kitchen table, especially if the kids aren't there. You know, it's a terrible story, but it's a human interest story and a horrible thing.” — Bill Kristol [36:05]
• “The elites are just, they poison people with their silence when their voices are needed...the cowardly elites are a big thing that get me up in the morning as I bounce out of bed filled with rage.” — Sarah Longwell [58:00]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [03:01] Ten years since Trump: Retrospective & personal/political changes
• [06:08] On race, gender, nativism—recognizing the persistence of old prejudices
• [08:15] ICE, policing, and reactionary shifts
• [11:59] Focus group: Reactions to the Renee Good ICE shooting
• [19:26] Administration’s response, media dynamics, and the danger of normalization
• [24:17] The role of public opinion in affecting outcomes
• [27:47] Focus group: Epstein files outrage, cover-ups, and elite impunity
• [34:51] Political/media handling of Epstein, effects on Trump, and the “Epstein class”
• [41:03] Focus group: MAGA first Republicans and intra-GOP fractures
• [45:10] Reflection: The cult of personality in the GOP
• [48:57] The Republican Party’s future after Trump
• [50:49] Focus group: Powell investigation—erosion of accountability, elites, and vibes
• [58:00] The importance of elite leadership and public cues

Conclusion

Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol paint a picture of an America where old political divisions have been scrambled, outrage is dampened by information chaos and elite insulation, and a public yearning for accountability is met mostly with hedging and cover-ups. Focus groups reveal both the confusion and the unspoken moral urgency voters feel. Both hosts ultimately argue that real political change—and healthier conservatism—won’t happen until Trumpism is thoroughly discredited, and elites start taking moral leadership seriously again, lest the outrages of today become the forgotten norms of tomorrow.