The Focus Group Podcast – S6 Ep21: The Heebie Jeebie GOP (with Will Sommer)
Date: January 24, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark Publisher)
Guest: Will Sommer (Right-Wing Media Reporter, Author of the False Flag newsletter)
Episode Overview
In this episode, Sarah Longwell and right-wing commentator/tracker Will Sommer delve into the evolving factions within the GOP as the party looks beyond Trump to 2028. The discussion pivots around new generational divides, the influencer-to-politician pipeline, and the role of right-wing media personalities in shaping grassroots attitudes. Specific focus groups provide insight into what swing and Gen Z voters are thinking—particularly about likely 2028 candidates like JD Vance and Marco Rubio, as well as the rising influence (and normalization) of extreme online personalities like Nick Fuentes and James Fishback.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Evolution of the Right: MAGA Establishment vs. America First
- Sarah Longwell sets the stage by outlining two main currents: uncritical MAGA "establishment" types and the more "America First" camp (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes).
- Will Sommer agrees with this framing:
"It's a time of tumult on the right, certainly at the right-wing media level... Trump himself is just seen as less relevant than he was in terms of what the direction of the party is going to be in a few years." [03:00]
- Recent events—including the "Charlie Kirk assassination" and the Epstein files—have left a power vacuum that influencers are racing to fill.
Influencers and Right-Wing Media Personalities
- There's a notable shift where media personalities aspire to be kingmakers or candidates themselves.
"I think a lot about maybe what is the potential podcast to politician pipeline... We saw that with Dan Bongino. We certainly see a lot of the people who've become right wing celebrities go on for roles in the Trump administration." —Sarah Longwell [03:49]
- Per Sommer, MAGA's agenda seems "driftless" with unmet expectations (e.g., no "deep state prosecutions"), opening the door for new personalities to define the movement.
Focus Group Reactions: JD Vance vs. Marco Rubio
JD Vance's Image
- Swing voters express unease:
"There's something that I can't put my finger on, but he's, like, a little bit weird and maybe boring or something." [07:22] "He gives me the heebie jeebies." —Female focus group participant [07:59]
- IVF opposition and past remarks on women are especially off-putting for some.
- Vance's hard online right credentials (Bronze Age Pervert, Nick Fuentes followers) are noted by Sommer as both an asset ("face of the new right...doesn't care about hypocritical freedom or niceties like the Bill of Rights") and liability (too weird/rigid for some insane rightists, racism against his Indian wife).
Marco Rubio's Rehabilitation
- Unexpected respect among both swing voters and the MAGA base:
"I used to think Marco was a clown...But I actually think he's doing a great job now in his new position." [12:40] "Rubio, Vance—those two were probably my favorites. Vance and Rubio have really surprised me with the intelligence energy." [13:21]
- Rubio's tenure as Secretary of State puts him "jetting around, you get the pictures in the Situation Room… but no one's saying, well, geez, Marco Rubio, it's your fault that the eggs cost X amount." —Will Sommer [13:33]
- The memeification of Rubio as "the one Trump gives everything to" bolsters his image among the base and moderates.
2028 Outlook
- Sommer: If Trump is unpopular by 2028, Rubio's lighter Trump association (via foreign policy) could give him greater crossover appeal than Vance, who is tightly tethered to MAGA.
- Longwell: Female swing voters, in particular, hold Vance's "childless cat ladies" comment against him:
"That childless cat lady [remark] has stuck in the craw of female voters…" [16:46] "No Riz. And so these groups have been pretty illuminating for me..." [16:46]
Gen Z Trump Voters on Israel and Anti-Semitism
Evolving Attitudes on Israel
- Gen Z Trump voters express skepticism and discomfort with Israel:
"Israel is kind of always a big talking point with the Republicans...The way Israel conducts itself when addressing Palestine, I feel like it's a little immoral..." [20:51] "I just don't believe in that death is justifiable in any way." [22:38]
- Host and guest agree the shift is bipartisan but note the right is more tolerant of anti-Semitic ideation, fueled in part by influencers like Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes.
Sommer’s Analysis
- Much of the Gen Z critique is substantive, observing "actual things" (Gaza, conduct of aid), not just conspiracy.
- The right, like the left, is seeing young voters turn against traditional pro-Israel orthodoxy:
"There is this sense...why is the Republican Party so supportive of Israel when it seems like a non sequitur to the broader America First agenda." [23:39, 24:46]
Influencer Culture: Nick Fuentes & James Fishback
Nick Fuentes' Influence
- Many Trump-voting young men know and consume Fuentes’ "funny" content, but disclaim the most egregious bits:
"I think 75% of what he says is normal and right, and the 25% that goes viral—stuff that's, I think, a little bit ridiculous...But I think that's his brand." [27:01] "It's like shock humor, I guess...I've only seen him in unserious scenarios." [27:38]
- Longwell warns: Jokes or not, the ideas "are getting planted in their heads and aren't harmful… there's a demand issue for it." [27:49, 32:00]
The Fuentes/Ironic Detachment Phenomenon
- Sommer: Even people who don’t “support” Fuentes parrot his tropes; he's part of the “pantheon of right wing characters who are getting a lot of attention,” boding poorly for MAGA’s future. [28:34]
- Both hosts lament the "Streisand effect": fighting against these figures often amplifies them, but ignoring them is not an option when their reach is so vast.
James Fishback: The First Griper Candidate
- Fishback (FL gubernatorial candidate) is discussed for his social media strategy, bigotry, and proposals like the "Hoe Tax" (on OnlyFans/sex work)—a hit with young online men:
"I feel like that's creative. It brings people talking. He's nice and young and he's stirring up conversation." [34:11]
- Sommer details Fishback’s lack of real-world accomplishment but astonishing resonance online, especially with synthetic controversies.
- The "Hoe Tax" reflects a broader incel/anti-women animus among right-wing young men.
- Sommer: "I think there's just this anger among young men about OnlyFans...the idea, you can't find a nice girl anymore because all the girls are on OnlyFans." [38:17]
- This segment exemplifies how online outrage (and influencer feuding) is on track to drive the GOP's future.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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"I think that's his brand though. So I don't necessarily follow (Nick Fuentes) to be like, look to him for political advice." – Young Gen Z Trump voter [27:01]
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"That childless cat lady [remark] has stuck in the craw of female voters… He gives me the heebie jeebies." – Sarah Longwell [16:46; quoting focus group]
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"I think there's just this anger among young men, I think particularly on the right, about OnlyFans...the idea, you can't find a nice girl anymore because all the girls are on OnlyFans. I mean it's honestly not true, but..." – Will Sommer [38:17]
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"There's basically no way to understand where the right is headed without understanding these crazy influencers. Like, if you'd like to ignore them, they have massive audiences because there is an appetite for what they are doing." – Sarah Longwell [32:00]
Timestamps for Important Segments
- Right-wing crackup and party structure: [03:00]
- Influencer-to-politician pipeline: [03:49]
- Focus group—JD Vance discussion: [06:46–08:44]
- Focus group—Marco Rubio’s image: [12:40–13:33]
- JD Vance vs. Rubio 2028 dynamics: [14:24–19:31]
- Young Trump voters and Israel: [20:32–25:36]
- Nick Fuentes’ influence and Gen Z detachment: [26:38–29:14]
- James Fishback/“Hoe Tax” & OnlyFans: [33:30–39:15]
- Influencer feuds, future GOP trajectory: [41:09–44:00]
- Advice for Democrats, battling negative attention economy: [44:00–45:01]
Flow & Takeaways
The episode offers a sobering look at the right’s next chapter—where online personalities wield outsized influence and the populist MAGA tide is fragmented but radicalizing. Focus groups reveal that, despite surface-level similarities, swing voters and MAGA bases are diverging in their appetite for post-Trump leadership, with some surprising flexibility in candidate impressions (Rubio, Vance). Meanwhile, the normalization of figures like Nick Fuentes—framed as "funny" or "ironic"—is sowing the seeds for further radicalization, especially among young men.
Key conclusion: Understanding the future GOP requires tracking its influencers—because the party’s base, especially younger voters, is shaped by and receptive to their brand of politics and shock content. Mainstreaming bigotry, misogyny, and anti-establishment mania isn’t just a phase; it's the new normal, and the Democratic opposition needs to adapt to this attention economy accordingly.