← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:00]
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- [02:07]
Sarah Longwell
Hello everyone and welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we are going back to Texas. We did the Republicans last week and this week we are going to do the Democrats. The Democratic Senate primary in Texas has become just about the most toxic online turf war since actually whatever Candace Owens did last week. But it's certainly one of the worst ones in the Democratic Party in the last few years. You've got James Talrico, the state representative and seminarian, and Representative Jasmine Crockett, who's been a darling of Democratic focus groups pretty much since she got to Congress three years ago. The voters we talked to did not get the memo that this race is a toxic online cesspool. People like both of them just fine. In fact, they like them both quite a bit. But I am still wondering, can either of these people actually flip Texas this year? Because Democrats have wanted to do that for a very long time. And we're gonna talk about whether either of these folks has got the goods to do it. My guest today is Elaine Godfrey, staff writer at the Atlantic, who's fresh off reporting in Texas and also has a little bit of controversy going on there. Elaine, thanks for being here.
- [03:23]
Elaine Godfrey
Thanks for having me, Sarah. Appreciate it.
- [03:25]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, so you were just in Texas and you managed to get yourself kicked out of a Jasmine Crockett campaign event. Tell us what happened.
- [03:33]
Elaine Godfrey
I did. I did. So I spent the last three or four days traveling across Texas talking to voters, supporters of both candidates. I was at a rally for Jasmine Crockett in Lubbock, West Texas, and I attended the whole rally. I interviewed supporters. It was a great rally. I mean, it was the kind of rally that candidates want reporters to be there for because people there were so hyped up, and people really were giving me great quotes about Jasmine Crockett. But at the end, there was a chance to go scrum, to go surround Crockett and ask her questions. So I approached to join in, and her press aide, one of her. Her press aides said, who are you? And I said, I'm Elaine with the Atlantic. They had let me in. I had registered. It was, you know, not a secret thing that I was there. And they said, you can't come in. It's too late to join the press gaggle. So I said, okay. Kept interviewing people. A few minutes later, a woman came up to me and said, are you Elaine? Jasmine's team wants you to leave. And I said, why? And she said she looked at her phone like someone had texted her what to say or had texted her or something. She said, elaine's a top notch hater. She will spin. She needs to leave. So I was escorted from the rally by several security guards, including one who was armed, which was a wild. That's never happened to me before as a reporter. And I think, why Are you a top notch hater? Let's get into it. So I don't know if I would call myself a top notch hater. I've never thought of myself that way. I'm a little flattered, but I had written a profile of Jasmine Crockett that came out last summer that I think was pretty fair. I'm biased, of course, but I think it was a fair piece. It did contain some criticism of her that from fellow Democrats. Before that story had gone to publication three or four days before, she had called me and said she heard the story was going to be bad. She was upset that I had reached out to some of her Democratic colleagues without telling her first. And she was revoking permissions and shutting down the profile, which, as we all know, is not how journalism works. So, of course, we published the profile. I never heard from her after that. I assumed she wasn't happy with it, but I assume that this is the basis for me being thrown out of the rally.
- [05:55]
Sarah Longwell
So, yeah, actually, I remember that profile in part because, full disclosure, you interviewed me for that profile.
- [06:01]
Elaine Godfrey
I did.
- [06:02]
Sarah Longwell
And also because I remember talking to you about Jasmine Crockett, because I feel sort of conflicted about Crockett, partially because of listening to voters in the focus groups for so long. I know voters really like her voters, Democratic voters, are really in the mood for what I'll just use broadly the. The term of the moment, which is a fighter. And they view Jasmine Crockett as a fighter. They like that she gets up in people's chili and is outspoken. And as a result, it has made her a bit of a star in the Democratic Party sort of nationally, not just, you know, in this race. But I also, you know, I look at these races and think, man, that Texas Senate seat would be an enormous thing for Democrats to have to rein in Donald Trump. And Jasmine Crockett, in being such a fighter, you know, has also said a bunch of things that make her raise some real questions about her electability prospects, which were things like calling the governor of the state governor hot wheels. She has said, I can't remember what the quotation was, but it was something mean about all white men or all
- [07:10]
Elaine Godfrey
men in general, white men, mediocre white
- [07:13]
Sarah Longwell
men, which to me, I'm always just like, you know, when it comes to getting elected, anytime you just sort of say a whole group of people is bad. It doesn't matter which group of people. But if you are trying to run for elected office, those types of statements really come back to haunt you. I was like, Sort of reluctant to be too hard on her, though, just because I do think, as much as I object to the political wisdom of that, I also know what voters are just in the mood for.
- [07:44]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah. I think the thrust of my profile of Crockett was exactly that. People love her. They do. It's so clear. And they love her for the very reason that a lot of other people hate her. She has really put her foot in her mouth. She's called Latinos. She said that Latinos who vote for Trump have a slave mentality.
- [08:01]
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
- [08:02]
Elaine Godfrey
Like, the more you put yourself out there, the more risks you take and the more embarrassing or more gaffes you're going to make. Although I don't believe she's actually apologized for any of those things or admitted that they're gaffes of any kind. But the flip side of that is Democrats, like, an unapologetic leader. Right. Like, they feel like she is perfectly matched for this moment. So I'm totally with you. She's a. She's a real, like, conundrum.
- [08:28]
Focus Group Participant 1
Yeah.
- [08:28]
Sarah Longwell
Like a complicated figure. But very much of this time, like, I really like talking about this Democratic primary, and I'm excited to get into it with you because I think that it. It's a bit of a microcosm for all of the things that Democrats are really wrestling with, which is questions around who is the most electable in this moment, but also who seems most authentic, who it looks like they're gonna take Trump on. And one of the things about this moment is that Trump has broken down so many taboos, so many norms that statements that used to get you. I don't want to use the word canceled, but that would make people say, like, this person's not really electable. You know, everybody's watched Trump brazen through all kinds of insane statements, hateful statements, saying awful things, past behavior. And so there's a lot of people now who are like, yeah, okay, does saying a mean thing, like, is that. Is that disqualifying? Because it doesn't seem like it is. And James Talrico is interesting because he. He presents just a totally different profile of a Democrat, not just in contrast to Jasmine Crockett, but in contrast to Democrats in general. Right. He is somebody who, like, leads with his faith, which there's only a few candidates, like, sort of across the Democratic ecosystem that are really like that. Like, Pete Buttigieg is kind of like that. He's somebody who really knows himself. And I think both of them are like this. Like, he also is authentic to Himself, but just like a very different type of person. So I'm excited to get into this with you, and obviously, I'm excited to. To see the outcome, because also, whoever wins, anybody who listened to the show last week, where we did the Republican side of this race, the chances are decent that whoever wins the Democratic primary is up against Ken Paxton, who himself then has some real electability issues. And in a wave election, Texas looks like it could be in play for Democrats. And so the electability, you know, it would be one thing if everyone's like, wow, this is just our lamb to the slaughter, or, you know, but this time, people are like, no, no, we could get this seat if we just nominate the right person, but who is that right person? So I want to get into what the voters said they're looking for as they make up their minds. And a lot of people still have not made up their minds because they do like both candidates. And what you're going to hear from a lot of these voters, it just sounds so different from the online discourse around the two candidates, which is why I do this podcast. Because what I really like for people to see is how often the big national conversations, especially the online ones, how they can be from what's happening on the ground. So let's start by just getting a sense from these Texas Democrats what they're looking for in candidates. Let's listen. I haven't decided yet because I'm, you know, I really like both of them
- [11:10]
Focus Group Participant 2
a lot, and I like that they stand up for something and they're not
- [11:15]
Sarah Longwell
just, like, laying over to us. The most important thing is a Democrat winning this particular election, and we haven't really made the decision which one to vote for yet. I think you have to kind of read the room, and if the end result is you want a Democrat in that seat, I think it has to be telo. While I would vote for women, minority or otherwise, I don't think the majority of Texas is ready for that. I think they're kind of a little bit archaic in their thinking, and if it comes down to a woman and a man, they're going to pick the man. I feel like a lot of Texas thinks that way. Unfortunately.
- [12:01]
Focus Group Participant 2
I am excited for the opportunity to push against the status quo. I think there are good things about Crockett. I think there are good things about Talarico.
- [12:16]
Focus Group Participant 3
What I'm looking for is enthusiasm. And if the person's track record, it lines up with what they're saying, like they. They are genuine. And I'm looking for actual Change and, like, seeing the policies that people vote for or what they vote against or, you know, for. And it is scary with, like, what's going on for people who are pro choice.
- [12:44]
Focus Group Participant 1
I want somebody who will go and be charismatic, but can reach across and get some of those voters. Because I know the last Senate election, it was really close when it was Cruz and Beto, you know, so people do want to change. I don't think they're happy with the status quo, but we need to get those. A few more people to switch over and realize what we've been doing for the last 30 years doesn't work.
- [13:10]
Sarah Longwell
This is great table setting from the voters. One was, I was surprised by how much, as close as we are, right early voting's been going on, still a lot of people undecided, and they really are weighing the electability. The person who said, you know, I'm worried about Texas voting for a black woman. They watched both Biden, like, they don't want people who are old and they're nervous about anyone who's not a straight white man. Because after Kamala, a lot of people have told themselves, like, I just don't think America's ready for a black woman. Like, people are too racist. And then, especially in a place like Texas, right, People are like, I just don't know that they would elect a black woman. I'm so worried about it. So tell me, as you've been out on the trail hearing from people, does that line up with what you're hearing from the people you talk to as they're weighing this decision in the primary?
- [13:56]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah, completely. It's, like, shocking how similar some of those people sound to the people that I talk to, the first thing I noticed was, like, when I asked about some of the drama around this primary that I've seen from a distance, having not been in Texas till recently, nobody had any idea what I was talking about. Like, the allegation that Talarico said that Colin Allred was a mediocre black man that had, like, barely penetrated. Like, people were just. Just coming around to realizing who was in the primary. And I think that's always surprising. As a politics watcher, that's always surprising. But the other thing was they loved, like, both of these candidates so much. I didn't talk to anyone who said, like, I really don't like this other person. Some were less enthused about Talarico or Crockett, but, like, all of them liked and respected them, which I just, you know, it's like, Democrats have this abundance of choices, and they're not used to it. And, like, a bunch of people said, I wish they weren't in the same race. Like, I wish I could vote for both of them. I wish one was running for, you know, something else, which. That was drama, too, how this primary came to be. But, yeah, a lot of this has echoes of the 2020 primary, when I remember Democrats in Iowa specifically just talking about electability, especially when it came to Elizabeth Warren at the time. I remember the. The, you know, she's a woman. Can she beat Trump? Like, it was all about electability. And I remember being frustrated at the time with voters, like, just pick who you like. Why are you playing chess in your head? But I totally understand now. This is a perfect opportunity, really. It's an ideal opportunity for Democrats to win statewide in Texas, especially if Paxton is the nominee on the Republican side. So I understand the math that they're doing right now. It's. They're desperate to win, so. So they're trying to figure out the perfect candidate. So, yeah, very much the exact same thing on the ground.
- [15:53]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And when people ask me, they're like, well, what do voters. What do Democratic voters in the focus groups, like, want from a candidate? And I'm like, they want someone who can win. They want to win.
- [16:01]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah.
- [16:01]
Sarah Longwell
And, like, yes, they want a fighter, but part of the wanting a fighter is about wanting somebody who is, like, charismatic and authentic and all of the things that they think leads to winning. It is hard for me to explain, I think, to some people how calculated voters are being now about, like, I might like this person, but if I think this other person can win. And I hear this in focus groups a lot, where people, like, interpret other people's biases. Like, there's a lot of, I would vote for a black woman, or I would vote for a woman, or I would vote for a gay guy. I mean, I hear this about Pete all the time. People really love Pete often. But do not think that voters will elect a gay man. Yeah. Whether that's true or not, it is like, the way that they assess their neighbors.
- [16:45]
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- [17:46]
Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell
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- [18:14]
Focus Group Participant 1
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- [18:17]
Sarah Longwell
I want to get into the candidates, both candidates, and how the Democratic voters talked about them. So let's do Jasmine Crockett first. Here's how the voters talked about her. Let's listen. Yeah, Jasmine is the one. I'm tell you that right now. We done bend down the road with these other people.
- [18:34]
Focus Group Participant 2
Like, you know, Beto, he came close
- [18:37]
Sarah Longwell
and then calling already, he was kind of close, not too close against Ted Cruz. But you got to do something. Like somebody said, you got to fight fire on fire. Jasmine is at fire. I don't see fire in James. I see him in something else, but not the Senate race.
- [18:55]
Focus Group Participant 1
I just love her because she's fiery and she's not afraid. However, I think that might backfire on some of the older people. You know, they don't, you know, they don't like it when women get too fiery. Um, that's a discussion for another day. But, you know, I love both of them. It's actually the first time in a long time that I have loved both candidates. And it's actually, you know, going to be hard for me to weigh out. Who do I want?
- [19:23]
Focus Group Participant 4
I love watching Jasmine Crockett, and I love her stirring things up. My concern would be that she might be a little to the other side. She might be considered a little divisive. And I would be concerned that the people, the Republicans would not be willing to work, come across the aisle and have conversations and try to come to consensus on things.
- [19:52]
Focus Group Participant 2
Talarico is actually the more progressive voice. Jasmine Crockett is taking money from aipac, which is hands down a non starter for me. Taking money from the Israel lobby to push the agenda of needing to support Israel's war and genocide on Gaza, on Palestine is a hell no to me. Anyone who is keeping up for genocide is a no for me. So I think on, even though that's not a Texas issue, that tells me a lot about the candidates that Crockett is bought and sold like a majority of the Democratic Party.
- [20:54]
Sarah Longwell
I feel like that was a rumor and not true.
- [20:57]
Focus Group Participant 2
But if.
- [20:58]
Sarah Longwell
If it was true, I would say it was a negative. But I know she voted against giving Israel aid or more money, and I think that was something that was circulating online and not actually true. But I could be wrong.
- [21:14]
Focus Group Participant 5
Like both candidates almost equally.
- [21:16]
Sarah Longwell
But.
- [21:16]
Focus Group Participant 5
But if I had to just tip the scale in one direction or the other, I guess I would have to say Jasmine Crockett because she kind of reminds me of back when, back during the civil rights movement, when people were willing to put themselves out there, even at their own expense or at the expense of their own safety. She's mentioned multiple times about having to have a protection detail and wear bulletproof vests because of the threats and stuff she gets as a result of speaking her mind out and because she disagrees with a lot of the policies and stuff that have been put in place by the Republicans. So that. That hearkens to me, a time where people would just, you know, not even think about their own safety, would put their own safety to the side for the. The greater good of everyone else they're fighting for. And that's what really resonates with me as far as she's concerned.
- [22:16]
Focus Group Participant 3
I think it's not necessarily bad if a woman is a firecracker and to be assertive, but, you know, it has to be in a way that is diplomatic and almost, I want to say, strategic. Like, careful, tread carefully. I really like Jasmine Crockett. She was, I think, a representative in the House for a while. So I think it's good that she's going for the Senate. And I feel like she has a lot of passion and she still has the drive.
- [22:47]
Sarah Longwell
So a lot of people like her, you know, when it comes to black voters, Black voters, especially not just in, in these groups, but in the groups that I do all the time. And just ask people, like, who do you like in the Democratic Party? Like, she comes up an awful lot. But, you know, I'VE watched the campaign from a distance and I've kind of been like, man, I think she's running kind of a terrible campaign here. Like, she keeps talking about Liz Smith and like, Democratic operatives and I have been like, kind of perplexed as to why she thinks these are good closing arguments, these are good things that voters care about. And yet this is where sort of vibes come in. I did love that there was a person in the group sort of saying, you know, Tul Rico is actually more progressive and Jasmine Crockett is the more. I don't know. I think he was saying establishment, but maybe even moderate, which is true. Like, this is where it gets really vibesy on people or even plays into biases. I think there's a sense that Tao Rico is the more moderate of the two. Maybe just because he's white and like, soft spoken and she is a black woman who is fiery as the progressive one. But it's not true. Like, she just sort of codes that way. Unless you want to correct me if I'm wrong, but in your assessment of watching her campaign, I look at it and I think, God, she's not running a very good campaign. But then she's still. Is she the odds on favorite to win? Like, what do you think?
- [24:08]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah, I mean, I feel like every day I have a different take on who is the odds on favorite. I mean, I don't know. Yeah, she, she. She might have a slight edge in the polling that we've seen in the last couple days. It's not like, necessarily great that Talarico released an internal yesterday showing him up by four. I sort of expected his internal would show him up a little higher than that. So that's not maybe great news for him. But yeah, I think I've talked to so many, you know, Texas politicos who have said they have no idea what kind of operation she's running. Like, she hasn't been in touch. She. She appears to have, you know, a couple of people, maybe just one person who's in charge of comms and is the manager of the campaign. She's doing a lot of the press outreach herself. Now. This is not new. When I was doing my profile on her, she was, I think, her own comms director at that point. She had fired her comms director and sort of said, I heard that she had said, you know, I can do a better job of this myself. And she was the same when she was in the Texas House. Right. Like when she participated in the quorum break of 2021. I think it was she organized press interviews for herself. So she's always been this kind of like scrappy. I'll take care of all the details myself. I'll get my name out there myself person. It's like maybe working like, you know, she has this name ID from doing press. She's kind of coasting on it. She has not raised as much as telo. She has not spent as much. She just put out her first ad like last week. I think in this campaign she's been in it for way less time than him. So like given all of that, it is surprising to me that she's, you know, neck and neck with him. But maybe it shouldn't be because she's all over social media, she's all over television. Right. Like, maybe this campaign is sort of teaching us that a traditional primary campaign doesn't have to look like, you know, having 12 rallies across the state in the last two weeks and having X number of TV ads and A, and a network of, of operatives on the ground. The problem with that is if she wins on Tuesday, becomes the Democratic nominee, how is she going to scale up to make a, a successful, big, expensive Texas wide operation? I mean I talked to so many people for this story and like nobody knows how she's going to do it. There don't appear to be plans in place for doing it. Talarico is already scaling up. So that's what I'm observing. And it is just a totally unconventional approach. I mean to put it nicely, some people said you can call it unconventional. I call it a mess. So hard to say. Yeah, it's the wild west down there.
- [26:52]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, like literally true. Actually, I want this idea she's running her own cops. I mean she's also hostile to the media. I mean not just she kicked you out of a thing. And which is a funny thing mainly because normally the candidates want the press to like them so they will carry their message in favorable ways. And yet she has approached not just you, but like, like she is trying to punish you for writing a profile that she doesn't like. That was what the kicking you out was about, it seems like. But like she does seem to have then this like weird antagonistic relationship with media or anybody who writes negative things about her. Although I am struck by there's a little bit of it that's kind of Trumpian in its way, which is, you know, oh yeah, you want to say something mean about me? Get out. I'm in charge here, you know, whatever. And like the voters kind of like that because they're not that interested actually in having their impressions mediated through the media anymore. They're like, I'm going to make up my own mind based on the things that I see. And so she's got this like sense of self the way that Trump does, which is like, I don't need a lot of advisors telling me what to do. Like, I trust my gut, I trust my instincts and I'm just going to go out there and be myself. And it seems to be, I mean, I'm not positive she'll win. It does feel a little coin flippy, but she's doing fine for having not that big thing. But is she, am I wrong? Is she being antagonistic to the press or do you hold a special place in her heart?
- [28:17]
Elaine Godfrey
I think it's very clear that I hold a special place in her heart. But there was reporting that she had done a similar thing to a CNN reporter. She is Trumpian in that way for sure. She does not like coverage that isn't fawning. She's used to going on Ms. Now and just sort of going off on the news of the day and being sort of a darling of the cable news media, like the liberal media. That's what she's used to. And so I think it surprised her a lot when my piece contained a little criticism of her. And yeah, I don't think she knows how to respond to it. I think her, her MO is is to fight back, is to fight all the time to not be thoughtful about stuff. But like you said, like there is appetite for that. She totally knows who she is or she knows who she wants to project. If you see it from a lens of like she's doing this exactly how she wants. That's why her staff is small. That's why she's kicking out reporters she doesn't like. It makes sense. I will say James Talarico has a similar sense of, of himself. Right? Like he, he may have more advisors and sort of be more traditional in terms of who he surrounds himself with, but he is not really controlled either. There was a New Yorker interview with him this week where they said, we tried to get him to talk about groceries and affordability, but he's focused on talking about spiritual healing and like he's kind of just gotta be him too. So it's a very interesting primary of like two people who appear to be like they're just being their most themselves, which is interesting.
- [29:54]
Sarah Longwell
Before affordability was the watchword of politics, authenticity was. So you do here have two authentic candidates being Themselves, and it's playing people like both of them. But before we move on from Jasmine, then, I want to get to Tal Rico. She entered the race, like, at the last minute, like almost an intentionally purposefully late filing, which I can't even remember why that was, but are you surprised that she's giving up a House seat to run a race as tough as this one? And how does she think about the electability argument that people are throwing around about her?
- [30:28]
Elaine Godfrey
I mean, I was a little surprised when I did my profile on her. The sort of behind the scenes skinny was she was going to probably challenge Ted Cruz when he's up in, you know, a couple years, whatever it is, and that she was just sort of waiting for that. I think, though, that when she lost, you know, she's lost two races now in the House for leadership positions. I think she's tired of the House. I think she thought, you know what? I'm gonna do something different. At least that is what people who work with her in the House have told me, which is like, she wants a bigger stage. She wants to have more action. And I think. I mean, my personal view is if she doesn't win this, she'd be great on television, you know, and I think that that is something she's probably considering very strongly. And so I think it's either she wins here or she goes on to be a media darling. And that is. I think that's always been her plan. I mean, she has talked about not really ever really wanting to get into politics to begin with. And I think, you know, she would be very good at that, actually. Like, maybe putting her fieriness to different use for Democrats might be. Might be a good thing.
- [31:38]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. She just seems quite aware of her own star power.
- [31:41]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah.
- [31:42]
Sarah Longwell
And she, like, wants to kind of harness the star power that she has in some way. That is a bigger platform, whatever that path may be.
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- [33:52]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, I want to talk about James Talrico. The headline on your story about him called him Texas's Pete, which made sense to me. And voters certainly got like, they are doing a lot of the. Yeah, seems like a very nice young man, which is how people talk about Pete. They're like, he seems like a very nice guy and so those like nice young man vibes just kind of come off of him. So let's listen to how these voters talked about t. Rico.
- [34:17]
Focus Group Participant 4
I have heard him talk about, talk about being a preacher, talking about that a little bit. Um, honestly, most candidates, when they would talk about that, that would turn me off, even though I'm a religious person myself, but that would turn me off. That that's not what I'm looking for in politics. And I don't think that that's the key thing. But for some reason, something about him when he talks about doesn't bother me as much as the Christian conservatives on the Republican side and they throw it in your face. And that means I'm a better person than you.
- [34:54]
Focus Group Participant 5
I've heard him speak before. I love his stance. I love his, his measured composure, how he speaks, how he just seems like someone who could really bring balance to what I consider to be an unbalanced situation.
- [35:12]
Focus Group Participant 4
He's so intelligent and personable. He's very personable. They both are. Like I said, I don't think you go wrong with either one.
- [35:23]
Focus Group Participant 6
Puella Rico is very charismatic and I'm looking at it from what would the people of Texas support? And he, he presents himself as a very good Christian. And, and Texas is, is Christian. More Christians, I would say.
- [35:46]
Focus Group Participant 3
And.
- [35:47]
Focus Group Participant 6
But the country is not all Christian and his values are very good. And hopefully people will see that. And, you know, he, he will act on what he says.
- [36:04]
Focus Group Participant 1
I'm a strong believer in separation of church and state. And I usually. It's like a knee jerk reaction. I don't like that because I don't want the church telling me what to do because it might not be my church, it might not be my neighbor's church. However, when Talarico speaks, he is trying to. At least what I get is that, you know, he's trying to live by these guidelines and he doesn't make it religious. He's just like, we're supposed to help the poor people, we're supposed to help kids, we're supposed to help this. That's kind of how I take it. And also, we have to face the fact we're in Texas. We are in the Bible belt. You know, people use this as a crutch to gain, you know, the people that are more on the right.
- [36:51]
Focus Group Participant 6
That's what really bothers me about Telorico is that not everybody is Christian and they don't want, you know, as we discussed, the separation of church and state. So I don't know, it's, it's. But in Texas, I think they're going to vote for him because of it, because it's, it's a Bible belt. And I lived in California, so I can see the difference between. I actually grew up in Midland, Texas. I was, I grew up there. So you know what the Bible belt. I know what the Bible belt is. A lot of my friends in Midland don't talk to me anymore.
- [37:34]
Focus Group Participant 5
I don't see him as weaponizing Christianity. I want to say weaponizing Christianity like they do on the other side of the aisle. I see it more as him built, using his Christianity, using his faith as a means of establishing his moral compass and then building his base on top
- [37:54]
Sarah Longwell
of that, I find the conversations around Tul Rico and how he is deploying religion to be exceptionally interesting. And you've spent time with Tao Rico on the trail, but you also write a lot about conservatives and evangelicals. What do you make of Tao Rico's frequent invocation of his faith on the campaign trail? And I'll follow up with, do you think it's effective or is it a little bit of the like, I was thinking about, like Tim Walls in the camo hat, where Tim Walls, like a liberal's version of what they thought could appeal to to swingier voters. Does he have that or does he have real cross appeal?
- [38:36]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah, I have thought about this a lot. I think his faith and the way that he talks about it is very authentic. I think it is true for him. I also think the way he talks about religion can sometimes feel, even to voters, like a stretch. Like, you know, he has said that, you know, God is non binary and there are six genders according to the Bible or whatever, something like that. He's just been a little bit like, progressive in his interpretation of scripture in a way that I think does lose some voters and would definitely be a turnoff to some conservative leaning Christians. However, I think just like we heard from those voters, so many people are with him for most of it, right? Like, they love hearing someone on their team talk about God and someone honestly, they like hearing, even if they're not religious, they like religious justification for things that they already believe. And I think that just gives people a lot of comfort that they're on the good side even if they're not religious. I talked to a bunch of Telarico fans who weren't religious who were like, I love the way he talks about his faith. And it makes me feel better. Like, it makes me feel good, like, I want to take care of my neighbor. Something that Talarico talks about all the time is, you know, we are called to love God and love our neighbor. And then, you know, the loving our neighbor is sort of the root of all of the policies that he supports. You know, it all comes back to that commandment. And I think that people love that. People respond really well to that. So where there are those sort of gaps, I mean, he also, he has this funny, and I mentioned it in my piece, he has this funny part of his speech where he talks about the difference between hate and love and how, as Bad Bunny said, the only thing stronger than hate is love. And he loves to say that people love that. He quotes Bad Bunny because it's like, the whitest man on earth quoting a Latino superstar. But he says that, and people go nuts. And then he has this whole section where he talks about all the. The ways that love is powerful and that hate is weak. And it's. It's a little cheesy. Like, at least for me, it's a little much. And I. I think for some voters, perhaps they feel that way, but I think for most of it, yeah, they're on board. I. I think, like, a lot of people, that resonates with them. Whether they're religious or not, it makes them feel good. It just strikes such a different tone than Trump, obviously, but also than Crockett. It's so different from the way that Crockett speaks, even though she, too, is religious.
- [41:21]
Sarah Longwell
So one of the things I know from listening to voters for so long, and this has just become something I'm really fascinated by, which is the way that Republicans, like, when you ask voters, why are you a Republican? Which we do a lot, we ask a lot of times, we just ask people, why are they a Republican? Why are they a Democrat? The number of Republicans who say, I'm a Republican because I'm a Christian is astronomical. Like, it's like, probably the top answer, like, followed shortly by, like, I was raised by my Republican parents, and this has just always been my values. But that is deeply rooted in their identity. But what's crazy is that Democrats are equally religious. Like, I hear Democrats talk about God all the time or talk about religion or talk about faith, but they never lead with it. It, like, comes up much later. It is not when they say why they're a Democrat. It's always, I believe in. You know, I believe we got to do something about climate change. I believe in LGBTQ rights. I believe in, you know, give your policy. And this has struck me as such an interesting difference, because the belief, like, I believe this or that, like, well, then when a candidate doesn't align with you on those things, or, like, even when the world changes and so, like, you know, like, it. It's less durable. The other one is rooted in identity, and it's why people are always like, I don't understand how Christians can vote for Donald Trump. And I'm like, but if your whole identity is, like, Christian and Republican have become intertwined, like, that's a tough thing to move off of. It is very interesting to me to see a Democrat start to foreground religion, because I think the voters, their, like, Spidey sense was up for whether or not it was a manipulation tactic. Right. Is this person trying to talking about God as a, as a political tool because they can smell that and they don't like it. And I think that's one of the reasons Democrats don't do it, because they see Republicans as doing that and they find it to be kind of a repulsive way to do things. I think the reason it's working for Ta Rico and the reason it works for Pete and I think it could work for a lot of other candidates if they tried it is if it's deeply held and it's part of you, that's just what voters want to know. They want to know, like, what lights you up, what makes you you, what roots, your values, where does it come from? And that's why even for people who are non religious, they're not just looking for somebody who like, shares their religion. They actually don't care if someone shares the religion. They do care if somebody shares their values. And they want to know what somebody's values are rooted in. It doesn't matter exactly what it's rooted in, just that it's rooted in something that they can get their arms around so they can locate a person.
- [43:57]
Elaine Godfrey
I mean, the being a good talker is, is the other reason he's similar to Pete Buttigieg, but like, they both come to a conversation about politics with like a deeply rooted theory of the case and, you know, Pete talks about religion a little bit less. He like, actually just has this sort of philosophy of, of politics and, and it is not entirely religion. Telos feels very, you know, I can answer any question and debate anyone because I believe this thing so strongly. I can just bring it back to that always. That gives such confidence to voters. That is what they are looking for, at least in this, you know, case. I don't know, I don't know about Trump voters. I don't know where they're getting that. But yeah, I think it's just the confidence that Talarico brings is like, very refreshing and a different kind of confidence than Crockett brings. It's like just two totally different ways of knowing themselves.
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- [46:23]
Sarah Longwell
Speaking of things that both candidates have in common, they've both found ways to land themselves in hot water. Crockett, you referenced this earlier where Crockett said that Latinos have a slave mentality when they voted for Donald Trump. And Talrico is alleged to have said that former Representative Colin Allred, who was in this race up until a few months ago, was a mediocre black man, as opposed to Crockett being a formidable, intelligent black woman. I think Tao Rico's denied that he said it like that, but there's been these controversies. But the thing that cracks me up and this is I'll tell you, there's no deeper insight for me and doing focus group work than you and I both know these stories, they were all over social media like whatever. These voters in our focus groups, if they knew about them at all, it was just a little bit and they just bend over backwards to give them the benefit of the doubt. Like these things are not not what is stressing them. Let's listen.
- [47:14]
Focus Group Participant 5
I'm sure given opportunity they would most assuredly walk back those statements and maybe maybe presented them in a different way and that speaks to their character. Whereas we have someone in the White House who will not only say disparaging, unpresidential like things to the public and to any segment of the population won't apologize for them, but I take that kind of Stuff with a grain of salt as far as those candidates saying stuff like that. Because, you know, people say stuff like that. But when people genuinely say, you know what, I can. I can take accountability. And I realize that I could have said that in a different way or what have you. I respect that.
- [48:01]
Sarah Longwell
If you just take a snippet, it
- [48:03]
Focus Group Participant 1
sounds really, really bad. But, like, the Talarico one, you know, Colin Aldred, he tried. Man is boring. You know, I mean, I voted for him. I wanted him to do well. He just didn't compare him to Jasmine Crockett. Jasmine Crockett is a rock star. I have been following her for years and years. I love her. So if he would have just said, a mediocre man versus this phenomenal woman. You know, it's like, it is annoying that, like, race came into it, because that shouldn't matter, you know, if they just did. Man, woman. But I don't know, like, when you said the whole thing, it made it not as bad, but then still bad, because the whole race thing, I don't know, that's just, like, stuck in my mind right now.
- [48:48]
Focus Group Participant 2
With Crockett, I'm a bit more like, you know, she sees what's going on and she knows. And about the slave thing or whatever that she made about the Mexicans or whatever, I understand what she means. Like, a lot of the people that I'm from, Mexican descendancy, a lot of those people that actually. That I have in my social circle, they actually voted for him, for Trump, because they were for immigration. They wanted stricter, whatever, which is. I get it. Everyone has. There has to be sense of law and sense of order. But it was so conflicting to me, you know, have to hear that.
- [49:25]
Focus Group Participant 3
I don't think Jasmine meant this statement to be as bad as it. Because there's a difference between intention and impact. Like, her intention could have been there, but the impact was not good of what she said of Latinos. Maybe she means that she feels like people who are minority vote against their rights by voting Republican, but it doesn't come out as well as she intended to. And people should vote who they want to vote, you know, regardless of party.
- [49:54]
Sarah Longwell
So just to be clear, there were, like, black voters defending Tao Rico, and there were Hispanic voters and Latino voters defending Crockett. And just in general, you know, And I think this is so telling about where this race stands and sort of how things are going in the country or how politics is evolving in the country. Because if you're following it online, the discourse, like, about this race has Gotten really crazy. It's like, oh, well, if you question whether Jasmine Crockett can win, you're a racist. But, like, both candidates are really, really popular. Like, I think they both have 70% favorability ratings. People like them. Both Democrats have decided Trump says the most insane, horrible things. We are not going to police our candidates like this. We're just not going to do it to each other. We're not going to police each other on these things. Like, and this is sort of like, when they say they fight, part of what they mean is we're just not going to let ourselves be dragged down by this stuff anymore. We're not going to spend energy on this. Because actually, they're both pretty good candidates. So why do you think there's been such a disconnect between the online discourse about this race and the reality on the ground?
- [50:57]
Elaine Godfrey
I mean, I have always found this to be true when I'm talking to voters on the ground. They're, like, willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Willing to. To, like, assume best intent, I guess.
- [51:10]
Sarah Longwell
Assume positive intent.
- [51:12]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah, assume positive intent. And I think it's also, it's a product of, like, you're talking to someone face to face. It's, like, a lot, like, it's a lot more awkward to accuse someone of being a racist to their face. Right. When you're talking about this stuff online, it's, like, so much easier to do that. And this, this campaign has become like, there's so many online proxies for both candidates, like, influencers, anonymous posters on social media for both candidates who take stories and accuse the other side online. And it's like, it's become big online. And, like, we're, you know, journalists are very aware of it because we are very online. There's just a social media dynamic here that we haven't really seen before. Like, and I think this will probably extend to the midterms of, like, yeah,
- [52:00]
Sarah Longwell
we're going to see more of it, not less.
- [52:01]
Elaine Godfrey
Oh, we're going to see so much more of it. Yeah, yeah.
- [52:03]
Sarah Longwell
Of where it's all going.
- [52:05]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah. Like darkness online and nuance in person. And I think this is the most political influencers I think have ever been involved in a, in a cycle is, like, right now, and especially with this campaign.
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- [53:51]
Sarah Longwell
Does it help that Democrats have had a ton of national attention on this race? Because I feel like depressing turnout might be part of how Democrats eke this race out. Right? It's like Paxton sucks and has all these scandals. And also people are mad about the economy. They're not as hot on Trump right now. The Latinos who voted for Trump, many of them are now sort of the Trump regretters. There were some of the first ones. A lot of the young people who took a flyer on Trump are mad about how prices haven't gone down. And so, you know, I guess, does the nationalizing of this race, is that a benefit to the Democrats? Is it a negative for the Democrats?
- [54:34]
Elaine Godfrey
I mean, it's weird because I feel like the Paxton Cornyn of it all hasn't been as nationalized. You know, Trump hasn't weighed in yet on that race, which I think is very interesting.
- [54:45]
Sarah Longwell
So I think he endorsed all three of them.
- [54:48]
Elaine Godfrey
Okay, great. That's helpful. Yeah. Oh, I forgot Wesley Hunt.
- [54:52]
Sarah Longwell
Wesley Hunt, yeah, sorry.
- [54:54]
Elaine Godfrey
Which actually.
- [54:55]
Sarah Longwell
And he's going to send the whole thing to a runoff. Like he's making a meaningful impact in that race.
- [54:59]
Elaine Godfrey
Yeah, for sure. I do think that race will go to a runoff and that will be interesting because then it will be. If the Dems don't, all eyes will be on that race. That may be, like, turnout for Republicans. It becomes Paxton loses his, like, odds to win. But on the Dem side, I don't know. I think. I think the nationalization of the race has helped Talarico a ton because nobody in Texas knew who that guy was like, six months ago, and a lot of people still don't, and so they're working on that. Also, he's raised tons of money from out of state, like, way more than Jasmine Crockett, which is kind of surprising, actually, because she was such a fundraising barn burner for the House in these past few cycles. And I think, like, turnout has been insane on the Dem side, not the Republican side. It's been a little higher, but. But not insane. Like, like the Dems, like, they're. They're surpassing turnout from the presidential primaries of the last two cycles.
- [55:55]
Sarah Longwell
Wild.
- [55:55]
Elaine Godfrey
Like, they have already surpassed turnout for that early voting turnout, which is crazy. So, yeah, I guess I would say it helps. Although, you know, I don't know. It's never just one thing. So there's. There's gotta be some. Some stuff that hurts. Like, I think a lot of these scandals, like Crockett kicking me out of her event, you know, I wrote a story about it. Like, no Texas voters are going to care about that kind of thing.
- [56:15]
Sarah Longwell
Right. You want to make any predictions? I'm going to. I'm going to put money on this in the prediction markets, you know, so.
- [56:23]
Elaine Godfrey
Well, the prediction markets have had Talarico up for a while, and I think they're being, like, way too, like, confident about that.
- [56:30]
Sarah Longwell
I actually don't like the prediction markets. Actually don't think they're that good. I don't.
- [56:35]
Elaine Godfrey
You know, I don't know. Like, a week ago I probably would have said Talarico. I guess I'll still say Talarico, but Crockett appears to right now maybe have the upper hand. I don't know.
- [56:47]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, it's a tough call. I. I think it's been. I've never been quite sure. Part of me is really. My head gets a little turned just by the fact that I hear her name come up all the time. But I also hear people grapple with the electability concern, and people really do. And this is again, I mean, I said this at the top. I'll say it again. The. The, like fighting the last battle or being worried about the lessons learned. Like Democrats told themselves after Kamala Harris lost, that you just can't nominate a Black woman. Like, we don't live in the kind of country, and they certainly don't think in a state like Texas, they worried about a black woman being able to win. On the other hand, like, the raw star power of her and the, like, enthusiasm needed, like, they're both, in their own way, the answers to what the Democrats have been looking for. How do we have more authenticity? How do we get people more excited? How do we have more dynamic candidates? How do we have fighters? You know, do we have people who talk about religion more different? And also, they're both. They're both basically saying, the Democratic Party doesn't want me here. Like, they're both kind of saying that they're victims of the national Democratic establishment, that they're against them. And so, like, T. Rico's thing with. With Colbert was like, see, they don't want you to see me. And Jasmine kind of has that rap too, with, like, the national Democrats are afraid of me. And I don't know. It's pretty interesting. I don't know which way it's going to go. I'm dying to find out. But you know, when we will know? I think. I'm pretty sure we will know in this race. The Bulwark is coming to Texas, guys. We are gonna be there for live shows. Our Dallas show, unfortunately, is already sold out, but there are still tickets available for our March 19th show in Austin. We have a very big venue in Austin, so go to bulwark.com events. Get tickets for the Austin show before they're sold out. We will certainly be deep in this race when we get down there and we'll know who the candidate is. Elaine Godfrey, thank you so much for joining us and. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. Remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at the Bulwark.com See you guys. Bye, Elaine. Thank you.
- [59:00]
Elaine Godfrey
Bye. Thanks, Sarah.