The Focus Group Podcast (The Bulwark)

Episode: S6 Ep28: BONUS POD: Iran Fears &...Focus Groups Love The Bulwark?
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Bill Kristol

Overview

This episode delves into American public opinion regarding the recent war with Iran, the mainstreaming of conspiracy theories (especially surrounding the Epstein files and U.S.-Israel relations), and an unexpected moment: praise for The Bulwark from focus group participants. Sarah Longwell and Bill Kristol analyze swing voter reactions, discuss the political ramifications of foreign and domestic events, and reflect on the troubling normalization of conspiratorial thinking on both the left and right.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War with Iran: Voter Anxiety and Confusion

Setting the Stage: The U.S. is newly and ambiguously at war with Iran, in alliance with Israel. The public is nervous, with the topic dominating recent focus groups.
Trump and Public Opinion: Both Longwell and Kristol note that Trump is unusually unresponsive to general public opinion, acting more in response to threats to himself personally.
Administration Secrecy: Unlike past wars, Trump launched the campaign abruptly, without informing Congress or giving a major public address. This led to initial voter confusion—some weren't even sure the U.S. was at war at all.
Ambivalence Across the Spectrum: There’s skepticism about foreign interventions, particularly in the Middle East, among all types of swing voters.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[06:49] Swing Voter 1: “We're already in a bad economy and going into another war...It's going to hurt our economy as well as our troops. ...Maybe this war is also the catalyst to somehow allow midterm elections to not happen because of us going into war.”
[10:40] Bill Kristol: “They're...hostile to foreign wars. I think we knew that...but the public as a whole, and a very jaundiced view of our efforts over the last 20 years.”
[13:35] Kristol: “I'm very struck by what he's done, and I assume there is some attempted cunning behind it....We don't want to treat this that way. We don't want a Trump Oval Office address...Let's treat it as a...special military operation.”
[15:13] Longwell: “We're basically only getting updates on his personal...LLC, a business of his, is how the American people are getting their information about the updates on this war that he doesn't want to call a war, which I find really odd.”

Key Segment

Initial Swing Voter Reactions (06:49 – 10:19):
- War viewed as costly and unnecessary.
- Several evoke past disasters (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan).
- Worries about Trump using war to manipulate elections.
- Some think war might help the economy, though the hosts contest this.

2. The Epstein Files and Israel-Related Conspiracy Theories

Epstein Files Disillusionment: Many Trump voters cite his promise to release the full Epstein list as a reason for their support—and are now angry at his failure to do so.
Conspiracy Thinking Becomes Mainstream: Participants openly identify as conspiracy theorists, and treat conspiratorial speculation as regular political analysis.
Israel at the Center: Several link Epstein, U.S. elites, and Israel (especially Mossad), suggesting shadowy Israeli influence behind U.S. policy and media coverups.
Candace Owens’ Influence: Her promotion of conspiratorial narratives, especially around the death of Charlie Kirk and Israel, deeply shapes the information diets of younger voters across the spectrum.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[25:11] Swing Voter 3: “My most controversial take is that I think the Epstein list is controlled by Israel. And that's a big reason, like, why we end up shoveling billions of our dollars over to Israel...But we don't get any of that here.”
[25:50] Swing Voter 5 (referencing Ghislaine Maxwell and her father): “Who is really controlling the country? And why does everything keep coming back to Israel?”
[26:05] Kristol: “I'm old enough to remember when people who were conspiracy theorists...would deny they were conspiracy theorists. Today it says, ‘I'm a conspiracy theorist. Let me tell you my favorite conspiracy.’”
[27:39] Kristol: “The conspiracy thing is so important. I think I've consistently underestimated it...for most of my adult life it was around...but it was on the fringe. The establishment...worked pretty hard...to keep it on the fringe.”

Key Segment

Mainstreaming of Conspiracy Thinking (23:07–29:09):
- Trump supporters express frustration over unreleased Epstein files.
- Baseless theories connecting Israel, Epstein, and U.S. policy abound.
- Swing voters now self-identify as conspiracy theorists even in mixed company.

3. The Role of Influencers and the Israel Debate

Candace Owens in Focus Groups: Swing voters mention her repeatedly as a key information source, especially regarding skepticism of official narratives on Israel and the Kirk case.
Generational Divide: Older participants are more pro-Israel, but under-40 voters express skepticism, sometimes drifting into anti-Semitic tropes or blaming Israel for U.S. troubles.
Danger of Blurred Lines: The hosts discuss how legitimate criticism of Israeli policy is being dangerously mingled with conspiracy and anti-Semitic rhetoric.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[34:21] Swing Voter 5: “I'm interested in this Bride of Charlie, so I listen. Watching Candace Owens, I've had it. Joe Rogan is also sometimes informative.”
[36:23] Swing Voter 4: “She [Candace Owens] just seemed to turn real conspiracy theory extreme recently to me. I mean, she's always had a little. ...But just the way she's approaching her broadcasting...she's a different person on her shows than she was a month ago."
[38:17] Kristol: “I'm a little personally spooked by hearing those people who seem like relatively normal people...willingness to go not...they just...Biden to Trump voters...so I'm a little freaked out by their willingness to go there…”

Key Segment

Candace Owens’ Reach and Israel Discourse (34:21–44:03):
- Discussion of how young voters, both left and right, increasingly distrust Israel and cite conspiracy explanations.
- Hosts lament the absence of “responsible adults” leading open debates, allowing grifters and radical voices to define the conversation.

4. The Bulwark’s Surprising Popularity

Focus Group Shout-Outs: Swing and Democrat focus group participants name The Bulwark as a favorite media source—praised for its ex-Republican perspective and accessibility.
Public’s Perception of The Bulwark: Some participants appreciate the former GOP background and willingness to critique their old party. Others note the insiders’ strategic analysis, and one describes them as “too egotistical, but often relevant.”
Hosts’ Reaction: Longwell and Kristol are tickled by their accidental focus group fame, joking about planting compliments as a “false flag.”

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[47:47] Democrat Participant: “It's probably my favorite thing I listen to about political commentary. I like the fact that they were former Republicans and to get that perspective of what it took to get them to flip and how they think the people who stayed are insane.”
[49:03] Swing Voter 5: “The Bulwark makes me think of my dad. He was a very liberal Republican...I like staying in touch with them and the Lincoln guys because I think they're super important for how we make our way back to a more balanced system.”
[51:26] Kristol (joking): “Speaking of conspiracy theories, as we were a minute ago, no one will believe that this is legit. No one will ever think we went out of our way...you had one of your guys call up 100 Bulwark actual Bulwark Plus subscribers, seed them into the focus group…”
[52:15] Longwell: “Clearly, our brand as former Republicans is strong with people who, like, know The Bulwark.”

Key Segment

Democratic Voters on The Bulwark (47:47–53:23):
- Multiple participants describe The Bulwark as their favorite or most trusted commentary outlet.
- The hosts reflect (with humor and humility) on the brand’s evolution and what it says about media trust.

5. Elites, Conspiracies, and the Future

Elite Complicity: Kristol criticizes wealthy, powerful Republicans for failing to break with Trump, noting that financial and social interests drive acquiescence even more than among rank-and-file voters.
Conspiracies and Civic Health: Both hosts warn that the normalization of conspiracy—especially those with anti-Semitic roots—poses a unique threat to American democracy, especially when amplified by political leaders and influencers.
Key Takeaway: The focus group participants, both right and left, are deeply unsettled, disillusioned, and increasingly susceptible to conspiratorial explanations. The Bulwark’s unique space as ex-Republicans may offer a rare source of trusted, reality-based analysis for some, but the broader trend is disturbing.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[54:29] Bill Kristol: “We understood what a threat, what a danger Trump was and is. And we saw that right at the beginning. ...We saw what a sort of authoritarian demagogue, how dangerous that would be if he became the nominee, which we failed to prevent him from being. ...But I'm amazed at the stickiness of the elites. ...The MAGA establishment and the willingness of the old Republican establishment to just subordinate itself to the MAGA establishment has really been bad for the country.”
[58:09] Longwell: “Yeah, well, unfortunately, I don't think Jamie Dimon's gonna take our $150 incentive to come sit in a focus group, but lots of regular Americans do. And every week we tell you what they think...”

Memorable Moments

[26:05] Kristol marvels at the way people now self-declare as conspiracy theorists: "Today it says, 'I'm a conspiracy theorist. Let me tell you my favorite conspiracy.'"
[51:26] Kristol jokes about seeding compliments into the focus groups—"Speaking of conspiracy theories..."
[44:03] Longwell laments: “We are allowing the conversation to be had by the wrong people because the responsible people, I think, are not willing to have a big defined conversation in really open and adult ways. And that's allowing for the conspiracy stuff to creep in.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

06:49–10:19: Swing voters respond to the Iran war—fear, suspicion, and early conspiracy theories.
23:07–27:39: Epstein files, why some Trump voters are angry, and the eruption of conspiratorial thinking.
34:21–36:54: Candace Owens and the viralization of conspiratorial content regarding Israel and Kirk.
38:17–44:03: Anti-Semitism, Israel skepticism, and the problems of confusing foreign-policy debate with conspiracy.
47:47–53:23: Focus group participants (mostly Democrats) praise The Bulwark; hosts respond with amusement.
54:29–58:09: Analysis of elite complicity, the perils of normalization, and concerns for the future.

Summary

This episode offers a unique, sometimes alarming, look into the American electorate’s unease amid a new war and their growing appetite for conspiracy explanations. Trump’s disregard for transparency and the traditional management of public opinion, paired with the amplification of fringe voices such as Candace Owens, leaves many voters—especially swing voters—adrift, suspicious, and hungry for alternative narratives. Meanwhile, media organizations like The Bulwark, staffed by former Republicans, unwittingly become a trusted voice for some seeking sanity amidst the political tumult. The recurring undercurrent: the urgent civic challenge posed by conspiratorial thinking and the need for more principled, adult debates on policy—before it's too late.

The Focus Group Podcast (The Bulwark)

Episode: S6 Ep28: BONUS POD: Iran Fears &...Focus Groups Love The Bulwark?
Date: March 12, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Bill Kristol

Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War with Iran: Voter Anxiety and Confusion

Setting the Stage: The U.S. is newly and ambiguously at war with Iran, in alliance with Israel. The public is nervous, with the topic dominating recent focus groups.
Trump and Public Opinion: Both Longwell and Kristol note that Trump is unusually unresponsive to general public opinion, acting more in response to threats to himself personally.
Administration Secrecy: Unlike past wars, Trump launched the campaign abruptly, without informing Congress or giving a major public address. This led to initial voter confusion—some weren't even sure the U.S. was at war at all.
Ambivalence Across the Spectrum: There’s skepticism about foreign interventions, particularly in the Middle East, among all types of swing voters.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[06:49] Swing Voter 1: “We're already in a bad economy and going into another war...It's going to hurt our economy as well as our troops. ...Maybe this war is also the catalyst to somehow allow midterm elections to not happen because of us going into war.”
[10:40] Bill Kristol: “They're...hostile to foreign wars. I think we knew that...but the public as a whole, and a very jaundiced view of our efforts over the last 20 years.”
[13:35] Kristol: “I'm very struck by what he's done, and I assume there is some attempted cunning behind it....We don't want to treat this that way. We don't want a Trump Oval Office address...Let's treat it as a...special military operation.”
[15:13] Longwell: “We're basically only getting updates on his personal...LLC, a business of his, is how the American people are getting their information about the updates on this war that he doesn't want to call a war, which I find really odd.”

Key Segment

Initial Swing Voter Reactions (06:49 – 10:19):
- War viewed as costly and unnecessary.
- Several evoke past disasters (e.g., Iraq, Afghanistan).
- Worries about Trump using war to manipulate elections.
- Some think war might help the economy, though the hosts contest this.

2. The Epstein Files and Israel-Related Conspiracy Theories

Epstein Files Disillusionment: Many Trump voters cite his promise to release the full Epstein list as a reason for their support—and are now angry at his failure to do so.
Conspiracy Thinking Becomes Mainstream: Participants openly identify as conspiracy theorists, and treat conspiratorial speculation as regular political analysis.
Israel at the Center: Several link Epstein, U.S. elites, and Israel (especially Mossad), suggesting shadowy Israeli influence behind U.S. policy and media coverups.
Candace Owens’ Influence: Her promotion of conspiratorial narratives, especially around the death of Charlie Kirk and Israel, deeply shapes the information diets of younger voters across the spectrum.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[25:11] Swing Voter 3: “My most controversial take is that I think the Epstein list is controlled by Israel. And that's a big reason, like, why we end up shoveling billions of our dollars over to Israel...But we don't get any of that here.”
[25:50] Swing Voter 5 (referencing Ghislaine Maxwell and her father): “Who is really controlling the country? And why does everything keep coming back to Israel?”
[26:05] Kristol: “I'm old enough to remember when people who were conspiracy theorists...would deny they were conspiracy theorists. Today it says, ‘I'm a conspiracy theorist. Let me tell you my favorite conspiracy.’”
[27:39] Kristol: “The conspiracy thing is so important. I think I've consistently underestimated it...for most of my adult life it was around...but it was on the fringe. The establishment...worked pretty hard...to keep it on the fringe.”

Key Segment

Mainstreaming of Conspiracy Thinking (23:07–29:09):
- Trump supporters express frustration over unreleased Epstein files.
- Baseless theories connecting Israel, Epstein, and U.S. policy abound.
- Swing voters now self-identify as conspiracy theorists even in mixed company.

3. The Role of Influencers and the Israel Debate

Candace Owens in Focus Groups: Swing voters mention her repeatedly as a key information source, especially regarding skepticism of official narratives on Israel and the Kirk case.
Generational Divide: Older participants are more pro-Israel, but under-40 voters express skepticism, sometimes drifting into anti-Semitic tropes or blaming Israel for U.S. troubles.
Danger of Blurred Lines: The hosts discuss how legitimate criticism of Israeli policy is being dangerously mingled with conspiracy and anti-Semitic rhetoric.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[34:21] Swing Voter 5: “I'm interested in this Bride of Charlie, so I listen. Watching Candace Owens, I've had it. Joe Rogan is also sometimes informative.”
[36:23] Swing Voter 4: “She [Candace Owens] just seemed to turn real conspiracy theory extreme recently to me. I mean, she's always had a little. ...But just the way she's approaching her broadcasting...she's a different person on her shows than she was a month ago."
[38:17] Kristol: “I'm a little personally spooked by hearing those people who seem like relatively normal people...willingness to go not...they just...Biden to Trump voters...so I'm a little freaked out by their willingness to go there…”

Key Segment

Candace Owens’ Reach and Israel Discourse (34:21–44:03):
- Discussion of how young voters, both left and right, increasingly distrust Israel and cite conspiracy explanations.
- Hosts lament the absence of “responsible adults” leading open debates, allowing grifters and radical voices to define the conversation.

4. The Bulwark’s Surprising Popularity

Focus Group Shout-Outs: Swing and Democrat focus group participants name The Bulwark as a favorite media source—praised for its ex-Republican perspective and accessibility.
Public’s Perception of The Bulwark: Some participants appreciate the former GOP background and willingness to critique their old party. Others note the insiders’ strategic analysis, and one describes them as “too egotistical, but often relevant.”
Hosts’ Reaction: Longwell and Kristol are tickled by their accidental focus group fame, joking about planting compliments as a “false flag.”

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[47:47] Democrat Participant: “It's probably my favorite thing I listen to about political commentary. I like the fact that they were former Republicans and to get that perspective of what it took to get them to flip and how they think the people who stayed are insane.”
[49:03] Swing Voter 5: “The Bulwark makes me think of my dad. He was a very liberal Republican...I like staying in touch with them and the Lincoln guys because I think they're super important for how we make our way back to a more balanced system.”
[51:26] Kristol (joking): “Speaking of conspiracy theories, as we were a minute ago, no one will believe that this is legit. No one will ever think we went out of our way...you had one of your guys call up 100 Bulwark actual Bulwark Plus subscribers, seed them into the focus group…”
[52:15] Longwell: “Clearly, our brand as former Republicans is strong with people who, like, know The Bulwark.”

Key Segment

Democratic Voters on The Bulwark (47:47–53:23):
- Multiple participants describe The Bulwark as their favorite or most trusted commentary outlet.
- The hosts reflect (with humor and humility) on the brand’s evolution and what it says about media trust.

5. Elites, Conspiracies, and the Future

Elite Complicity: Kristol criticizes wealthy, powerful Republicans for failing to break with Trump, noting that financial and social interests drive acquiescence even more than among rank-and-file voters.
Conspiracies and Civic Health: Both hosts warn that the normalization of conspiracy—especially those with anti-Semitic roots—poses a unique threat to American democracy, especially when amplified by political leaders and influencers.
Key Takeaway: The focus group participants, both right and left, are deeply unsettled, disillusioned, and increasingly susceptible to conspiratorial explanations. The Bulwark’s unique space as ex-Republicans may offer a rare source of trusted, reality-based analysis for some, but the broader trend is disturbing.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

[54:29] Bill Kristol: “We understood what a threat, what a danger Trump was and is. And we saw that right at the beginning. ...We saw what a sort of authoritarian demagogue, how dangerous that would be if he became the nominee, which we failed to prevent him from being. ...But I'm amazed at the stickiness of the elites. ...The MAGA establishment and the willingness of the old Republican establishment to just subordinate itself to the MAGA establishment has really been bad for the country.”
[58:09] Longwell: “Yeah, well, unfortunately, I don't think Jamie Dimon's gonna take our $150 incentive to come sit in a focus group, but lots of regular Americans do. And every week we tell you what they think...”

Memorable Moments

[26:05] Kristol marvels at the way people now self-declare as conspiracy theorists: "Today it says, 'I'm a conspiracy theorist. Let me tell you my favorite conspiracy.'"
[51:26] Kristol jokes about seeding compliments into the focus groups—"Speaking of conspiracy theories..."
[44:03] Longwell laments: “We are allowing the conversation to be had by the wrong people because the responsible people, I think, are not willing to have a big defined conversation in really open and adult ways. And that's allowing for the conspiracy stuff to creep in.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

06:49–10:19: Swing voters respond to the Iran war—fear, suspicion, and early conspiracy theories.
23:07–27:39: Epstein files, why some Trump voters are angry, and the eruption of conspiratorial thinking.
34:21–36:54: Candace Owens and the viralization of conspiratorial content regarding Israel and Kirk.
38:17–44:03: Anti-Semitism, Israel skepticism, and the problems of confusing foreign-policy debate with conspiracy.
47:47–53:23: Focus group participants (mostly Democrats) praise The Bulwark; hosts respond with amusement.
54:29–58:09: Analysis of elite complicity, the perils of normalization, and concerns for the future.