The Focus Group Podcast

S6 Ep29: Illinois Senate Race: Daaaa Dems (with David Axelrod)
Date: March 14, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: David Axelrod (CNN, University of Chicago Institute of Politics)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the high-stakes Illinois Democratic Senate primary triggered by Senator Dick Durbin’s retirement. Though Illinois is a solidly blue state, the race has become a fascinating battleground among three major Democratic candidates: Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, and Rep. Robin Kelly. Host Sarah Longwell and guest David Axelrod delve into what’s resonating with real Democratic voters via fresh focus group findings—especially around new styles of political communication, authenticity vs. aggression, and the Democratic Party's response to the post-Trump era. The conversation ranges from candidate strategy and messaging to the larger generational and systemic issues sweeping through Democratic politics.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Why the Illinois Primary Matters

• Low National Attention, High Local Stakes

  • Most national eyes are off this race as Illinois is nearly certain to elect a Democrat, but the real contest is in the primary.
  • Sarah chose to highlight this "competitive primary" because it reflects key debates on party direction and messaging.
  • (03:33) Sarah: “I like intra party Democratic skirmishes. I’m interested in how you think those have changed during the Obama years…”

• Race Characteristics

  • Raja Krishnamoorthi—establishment, heavily funded, long-time frontrunner.
  • Juliana Stratton—endorsed by major Illinois figures, pitching herself as an aggressive progressive.
  • Robin Kelly—respected, mainstream, but polling far behind.

2. Focus Group Findings on Raja Krishnamoorthi

Theme: Does Heavy Media Presence Pay Off or Backfire?

• Voters’ Mixed Sentiments (06:16–08:57)

  • Initial support for Raja driven by visibility and his moderate stance, but concerns grew about his fundraising sources (e.g., ties to ICE contractors, AIPAC).
  • Criticism of his frequent TV appearances: “he comes on all the time… politicians [like that] are media whores…”
  • Distrust about whether he’s “just another striver” or genuinely distinct.

• Quote:

  • Voter: “He wears nice suits and he speaks nicely and he thinks about… reasonable campaign positions. But then… he’s taking money from people with massive contracts with ICE and DHS. I’m very concerned…” (07:14)
  • Voter: “[He] just seems like the kid that wants to get in with the cool kids, like, he’s gonna do or say whatever...” (08:47)

• Axelrod’s Analysis

  • (10:27) “He’s capable, but his ambition is pretty obvious… you better tell a consistent story about why you're doing it, who you are… in neither of those groups could anyone say, ‘oh, he did this, or he believes that.’”
  • Media saturation can hurt if there’s no resonant personal narrative.

3. Messaging and Authenticity in a New Era

Theme: Voters Want Aggression, Not “Regular Politician” Vibes

• Sarah’s Observation

  • (12:24) “You can call it offense, but if you can’t give voters just a clear sense of who you are… they don’t attach to anything.”
  • Trying “too hard” comes off as “regular politician energy,” which is now a liability.

• Axelrod’s Broader Point

  • (13:47) “There is a pervasive sense… that the system is rigged… big money has intruded… so if you look like a standard issue politician… it screams, ‘I’m part of the system.’”

• AIPAC’s Role as a Litmus Test

  • Growing controversy about AIPAC’s influence and funding has become a generational wedge—especially among Gen Z Democrats.
  • (15:05) Axelrod: “AIPAC [is] involved in all [major Illinois races]… spending millions… at a time there’s a great deal of controversy.”

4. Juliana Stratton: Breaking Through with Boldness (or Going Too Far?)

Theme: Does Profanity and Outrage Win or Repel?

• The “F* Trump” Ad**

  • Stratton’s viral ad features repeated unbleeped expletives from voters (and Sen. Duckworth) directly attacking Trump.
  • (22:30–22:55) [Plays ad]
  • Polarizing even among Democrats: some see it as a refreshing fight; others as lacking substance or professionalism.

• Focus Group Reactions

  • (25:47–29:58)
    • Several voters say the ad made them laugh, was memorable and "stuck out," reaching “urban” audiences and appealing to those tired of polite politics.
    • But others are “so tired” of negativity and want more on “what she’s for, not what she’s against.”
    • Mixed feelings on her actual experience or clarity of platform.

• Memorable Moment

  • “When I first saw it, I thought it was a spoof. I was, like, shocked that they would actually put that on… But it definitely stuck out. It was very memorable.” (28:34)

• Analysis

  • Axelrod: “She was smart enough not to use the word herself. But it comes off as artifice. If she doesn’t win, it’s because there was no other information about her…”
  • Sarah: “I have a slight fear that this kind of gimmicky stuff will catch on…” (32:22)

5. Robin Kelly: Experience vs. Excitement

Theme: Is Being Mainstream a Liability Now?

• Voters Respect but Don’t Gravitate

  • She’s the only one “I’ve heard policy stuff [from],” but age and “mainstreamness” make her less compelling.
  • Attack on her for “performative” moves (impeachment efforts seen as futile).
  • “I appreciate that [about Kelly], but when she let [the drive to impeach] override other things... I saw that as very disingenuous.” (36:48)

• Sarah and David’s View

  • Democratic divisions are less about progressive vs. moderate, more about whether to “imitate Trump’s style or do something different.”
  • Axelrod: “Increasingly, there’s going to be a hunger for a different kind of politics. I think Democratic voters… want someone who represents a refreshing difference from status quo politics.” (37:49)

6. J.B. Pritzker: On the Ballot and Beyond

Theme: Is the Governor’s Next Step the Presidency?

• Focus Group Reaction to Pritzker

  • Many began skeptical about a billionaire governor but grew to “trust” him for “just doing the work.”
  • Supporters feel his wealth makes him un-buyable: “his money frees him up… he’s devoted himself to a life of service.” (42:15)
  • Concerns remain about his reach in more conservative parts of Illinois and electability nationwide.

• Sarah and David on Electability

  • Echoes heard from Trump voters about wealth = independence.
  • Pritzker’s authenticity and performance during crises (e.g., ICE raids, COVID) praised.
  • Speculation on whether being Jewish will matter in ‘28; consensus is it could be an asset if combined with critique of Netanyahu/Israeli policy.
  • “The difference is [with Trump] that doesn't mean he’s not for sale, though.” (45:18)

• Larger Takeaway

  • Axelrod: "Forget about who you are, what you look like, where you come from... The question is, do you have humility? Integrity? Honesty? Do you have empathy? Do you have competence? Are you from outside the system and in a position to assail the problems in the system, not just the problems with Trump?" (51:39)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Raja’s Media Saturation:
  • Axelrod: “If you're running media for eight months and people can't answer [what you stand for], I would be really concerned.” (10:27)
• On the F* Trump Ad:**
  • Voter: “Part of me was like, yeah, F him, but then I’m like, girl, this is so not professional. And you don't have to say F him for us, it's okay. We say F him every day on our own.” (29:12)
• On Generational Change:
  • Axelrod: “I am a self-loathing baby boomer who is here to say we ought to get the hell out of the way. It’s time for a new generation of leadership in this country…” (18:45)
• On “Imitating Trump”:
  • Sarah: “There are things to learn from what he did in communications. But mimicking him… is not the path forward.” (54:29)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:33 – Illinois primary context and candidate overview
• 06:16–08:57 – Voter feedback on Raja Krishnamoorthi
• 10:27, 13:47 – Axelrod’s analysis of Raja’s campaign
• 15:05–18:12 – AIPAC’s role & generational wedge issues
• 22:30–22:55 – Juliana Stratton’s “F*** Trump” ad
• 25:47–29:58 – Focus group reactions to Stratton, media/strategy analysis
• 34:12–36:48 – Voter reactions to Robin Kelly
• 37:49 – Axelrod on what’s dividing Democrats now
• 42:15–45:10 – Focus group on Pritzker, discussion on billionaire politicians
• 51:39 – “Forget about who you are…” Axelrod on the coming realignment

Conclusion

This episode offers both a microcosm of a quirky, under-the-radar Senate primary and a broader meditation on where Democratic politics—and voters—are headed in the post-Trump era. The focus groups reveal that aggressive, pugilistic communication breaks through, but may not be enough. Voters hunger for authenticity and policy substance, not just anti-Trump swagger or establishment politicking. Key questions loom for ‘28: Will new faces step up? Will Democrats choose counter-Trump pugnacity or a cleansing, forward-looking leadership? The Illinois race is an early test of which direction resonates most.