← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:01]
Sarah Longwell
You know what they say. Early bird gets the ultimate vacation home. Book early and save over $120 with VRBO because early gets you closer to the action, whether it's waves lapping at
- [00:14]
David Axelrod
the shore or snoozing in a hammock that overlooks.
- [00:17]
Sarah Longwell
Well, whatever you want it to, so you can all enjoy the payoff come summer with Vrbo's early booking deals. Rise and shine. Average savings $141 select homes only support is available 24. 7 with Vrbo Care. We're here day or night, ready whenever you need help. Because a great trip starts with the right support. Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week, we're taking you to Illinois, home of Abraham, Abraham Lincoln, deep dish pizza, debars Barack Obama, and a fascinating primary for an open Senate seat. Senator Dick Durbin is retiring, and Illinois is blue enough that one of the three main candidates we talk about today is going to be their next senator. Those are Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthy, Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, and Congresswoman Robin Kelly. For the past year, I've been saying that Democratic voters don't care as much about the elite debate that's been going on that says we gotta, you know, Dems need to be more moderate. Dems need to be more progressive. The voters really just want their leaders to be more aggressive. But on this count, one candidate is clearly distinguishing herself in this group, and it turns out from the voters we listen to, she may be distinguishing herself a bit too much, which we'll get into. My guest today started out in politics in Chicago and is still in Chicago.
- [01:59]
David Axelrod
Yep.
- [01:59]
Sarah Longwell
Yep. David Axelrod, senior political commentator at CNN and distinguished fellow at the University of Chicago's Institute of Politics, where I admittedly was also a fellow. Welcome back and thanks for being here, David.
- [02:10]
David Axelrod
Well, don't make it sound like a crime. That's a distinction. That's something you should.
- [02:14]
Sarah Longwell
It was.
- [02:15]
David Axelrod
Yeah. You were a great fellow, and it was a great time at the Institute of Politics and in the great city of Chicago. You named just a few of the virtues of. Of Chicago there.
- [02:25]
Sarah Longwell
What's two big ones I missed?
- [02:27]
David Axelrod
Well, you missed the Cubs and the White Sox.
- [02:29]
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
- [02:30]
David Axelrod
No, no. But you missed the lakefront. You missed the restaurants, great food scene and a good music scene, too. So you know what, Sarah, and I know I'm going far afield here, but you asked for me, so you get what you get. I grew up in the city of New York, and I Went to college in Chicago. And I always. And when I got out there, I thought, boy, this is a sleepy little town. And I never went because what I discovered was Chicago is a big city with a kind of small town sense of community that you don't really get in New York. And I mean, I lived in Manhattan. It was like foreign travel for me to go to the boroughs, you know.
- [03:11]
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
- [03:11]
David Axelrod
At that time. It's still a little different now. Brooklyn is sort of a adjunct to Manhattan now. But anyway, we digress. Let's get down to. Chicago's great.
- [03:20]
Sarah Longwell
Chicago's great. We get it. And I enjoyed my time there. Can't wait to get back. So just on this, I think it's not getting a ton of attention in part because it's not a competitive seat. So it's really just a competitive primary.
- [03:33]
David Axelrod
Right.
- [03:33]
Sarah Longwell
But I like intra party Democratic skirmishes. I'm interested in how you think those might have changed during the Obama years and just maybe set the scene for us about this primary. I assume you're sort of deep in it there.
- [03:47]
David Axelrod
Yeah. You know, listen, I think this is unlike any Senate race that I've seen in Illinois because of the sort of low key nature of it. There's not a great deal of interest in it. You had one candidate, Raja Krishnan Morthy, and good for you for pronouncing it right on the first try.
- [04:08]
Sarah Longwell
I practiced.
- [04:09]
David Axelrod
I know you did. I know you did. You prepare. But he's prepared for this race for years and years and he's just fundraised and fundraised and he started the race with $20 million in the. He started running ads in July and he's been on the air since July. And the other candidates, Juliana Stratton, the lieutenant governor just recently got on the air. Robin Kelly, who's another member of Congress, has barely gotten on the air. So I think that the race has sort of limped along for a long time. It's not like the Texas race with vivid personalities who, you know, draw national attention and so on. And so it's interesting to hear these groups and hear how much people knew and what they took away from these candidates. As you point out, there was one ad that got a great deal of attention, but it's hard to divine from these groups where this is going. For months and months and months it looked like Raja would run away with it because he was on the air and he was the only candidate people were hearing from. Now there's some doubt. I still think he's the frontrunner, but there Seems to be some doubt about it and we should let the people speak here.
- [05:31]
Sarah Longwell
I guess we will let the people speak. But just to be clear, the reason I wanted to do this race, even though it's not one of the sort of top tier races that people are paying a lot of attention to, is that there is a phenomenon that has occurred in this race that I think actually gives us quite a bit to chew on around Democrats and communications and the things that break through and what it means in this new media environment to get voters attention. And I want to wrestle with that because that's an interesting.
- [05:57]
David Axelrod
It is.
- [05:57]
Sarah Longwell
So we're going to start out. We conducted two groups of Illinois Democrats for this show. One of the groups was all women. Not on purpose. That just happened to be the people that responded. So we had one group of all women and then another group that was mixed. So this first candidate, as you say, Raja Krishnamurthy, but I may just call him Raja for the.
- [06:16]
David Axelrod
He would advise you to do that.
- [06:18]
Sarah Longwell
Yes, yes. Like you said, he's been on TV a ton. Like, he has spent a lot of money. He's been the front runner in most polls, but kind of until now, like, it is tightening up. He's from the Chicago suburbs and you can think of him as the more moderate or the more establishment guy in the race. Let's listen to how the voters talked about Raja. I think of myself as a good judge of character. I don't like where his money is coming from. I am trying to sort out what I read on social media about his donors versus, you know, what? I thought I believed in him, so I just ended up disappointed. And it may be my fault because I didn't. I had a little bit more of a glow around him, which is making it hard as I, as I go forward because I would say even three months ago I assumed he was my first choice and now I'm. I'm not there. I haven't made a decision yet. You know, he wears nice suits and he speaks nicely and he thinks about, you know, he talks about reasonable campaign positions. But then when I read, you know, that he's taking money from, you know, people with massive contracts with ICE and dhs. I'm very concerned about apac, so try not to step on anybody's toes here. But I'm concerned and I didn't expect to be concerned. I sound like Susan Collins, right?
- [07:54]
David Axelrod
I pretty much like what he does. I do not like the fact that, you know, he is possibly leaving that seat open for someone else, even though I Know, we, Illinois, and we are
- [08:10]
Sarah Longwell
probably predominantly Democratic, but I want.
- [08:16]
David Axelrod
I really want you to see exactly where you are. Why are you moving to that other position? Why don't you just propel yourself right there where you are and keep doing
- [08:28]
Sarah Longwell
the good things that you are doing? He voted for thanking ice. I'm not a fan of ice, so. And I just can't see why you would do that. And being a Democrat or definitely not a progressive, just seems like the. The kid that wants to get in
- [08:48]
David Axelrod
with the cool kids, like, he's gonna
- [08:50]
Sarah Longwell
do or say whatever he wants to
- [08:51]
David Axelrod
go hang out with the cool kids, and then he's gonna go do what they want to do. You know, that's kind of where I'm at with Rock.
- [08:58]
Sarah Longwell
I mean, I may be wrong, but that's just the impression I gave it them. I actually voted for him. And I'll tell you why. I. I had mixed feelings, too. I remember when he first ran, seeing his commercials, you know, just call me Raja. I didn't know much about him, but I watch a lot of cable political shows he comes on all the time. And on the one hand, that kind of rubs me the wrong way, because I call those politicians, they're like media whores, you know, they can't get enough of the tv. There's certain ones are always on the cable shows, you know, but yet, you know, he made sense. You know, he seemed to be fighting for the right things. And then I heard he was going to, you know, run for Durban seat, but the two ladies have just kind of left me cold. And I guess it's. It's kind of what we were. What you were talking about, what everyone was saying about the negativity with Trump. I mean, there are commercials that seem so harsh, and the one where it's, you know, people screaming f you, but they block it out. I just thought that's so, like, amateurish to me that they just lost me. So I'm not crazy about him, but it was kind of like, well, of the three, I think he's probably our best hope. So this was really interesting. Raja got cast as sort of like, trying too hard because he's on TV a lot, he's running a lot of TV ads. And I guess I wondered from you, is there a fine line between going on offense and trying too hard?
- [10:27]
David Axelrod
Well, I mean, it depends what you define as going on offense. I mean, he's been on the air for July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February. Eight months.
- [10:39]
Sarah Longwell
Was that too early? Like, did he fatigue people on Him?
- [10:42]
David Axelrod
No, I mean, look, let me just say for just disclosure purposes, I've known Raja for 22 years. He was Barack Obama's policy director. He was a lawyer and he took time off to be Obama's policy director when he ran for the Senate. I've known him for a very long time. He's a very bright guy, he's a very ambitious guy. He's run for various offices and I think he had his sights set on this office. So he's able, he's capable, but his ambition is pretty obvious. And the biggest thing that I think you can run an eight month media campaign, but you better tell a consistent story about why you're doing it, who you are. He did have some biographical spots, but there was never, in my view, there's not been a coherent sort of like, what makes this guy tick, what's in his soul, what does he care about? They've reacted to the issues of the moment. They've done the affordability stuff. When ICE was in town, they did the ice. But what was striking to me that you did two groups, and in neither of those groups could anyone say, oh, he did this, or he believes that. Well, if you're running media for eight months and people can't answer that question, I would be really concerned about that. So these groups were a revelation to me. I mean, he may overpower the other two because he's on the air, but not just longer, but in more places than they can be on the air in the state and so on. But I think that's a message failure, and it may flow from the candidate, but they haven't told a consistent story.
- [12:25]
Sarah Longwell
So. David, one of the reasons I actually quite like this race is that it gives us an opportunity to talk about a couple things that I think are really important for voters. One is, I do think that and this was an issue for Kamala too, she spent a lot of money on a lot of spots, right?
- [12:40]
David Axelrod
Yeah. A lot of donors still complaining about that.
- [12:43]
Sarah Longwell
I know, but at the end of the day, when I listened to the focus groups and even after she lost, I went back and I listened to them now with like the benefit of hindsight. And the thing that was all over them wasn't, I didn't like this position. I didn't like this position, any of that. It wasn't, oh, she was too moderate, oh, she was too progressive. It was, I don't know who she is, I don't know what she stands for. I don't know anything about her, which is sort of funny. Because people did know stuff about her, but it was the inability. And this is it. It's like, this guy's on the air a lot. He's spending a lot of money. You can call it offense, but if you can't give voters just a clear sense of who you are, where they're like, I understand you, I know where you're coming from. I see you, guy. They don't attach to anything. And we live in a time now where seeming like a regular politician is actually a huge liability. When I say trying too hard, what it is is that they've got the scent of striver striving, has regular politician energy. They don't want regular politicians. They want things where people are gonna go shake things up that have sense of urgency, don't do just the same old thing.
- [13:48]
David Axelrod
And well, also, Sarah, let me just add to that. The system itself is under scrutiny and attack. Not just Donald Trump, not just the Republican Party, but the Democratic Party as well. Because there is a pervasive sense, and you see it in poll after poll, you hear it in focus groups, that the system is rigged against everyday people, that big money has intruded to such a degree in our politics that it's crowded out the voices of everyday people. And so if you look like a standard issue politician and you're on television all the time and that sort of, it screams, you know, I'm part of the system, I'm not going to challenge or change the system. Even if you say you're going to.
- [14:37]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. And speaking of which, what did you make of sort of the litmus test that AIPAC has become in Democratic primaries? Because, you know, I watched closely former Representative Tom Malinowski, he lost his primary in New Jersey and basically blamed AIPAC for his defeat. He wrote about it in the Bulwark, actually, like as a warning both to AIPAC and to his fellow Democrats. And so this has been a particular wedge against Raja in this race. And you heard it in some of the groups, like, what are Democrats going to do about this particular thing?
- [15:06]
David Axelrod
There are a handful of congressional races. There's a big generational change in Illinois politics this year. So in the 9th district, where Jan Schakowski, who's a longtime reliable progressive, is retiring after almost 30 years, Danny Davis, who's been there for almost 30 years on the west side, Robin Kelly, who's running for the Senate, retiring from her seat, and Raja is giving up his seat. So there are four congressional races and AIPAC's involved in all of them. So this has raised its Profile in these Illinois races and in all of these races, they don't identify themselves as aipac. They create vehicles, Chicago Women for Progress or whatever it is, and they fund campaigns that way. But they're spending millions of dollars on these races at a time when there's a great deal of controversy about, particularly within the Democratic Party, but I think generally, but certainly within the Democratic Party about Israeli policy, about the wars, about Netanyahu. And aipac, of course, is a reliable agent and has been for generations. That's why they were created, to support the Israeli government and its policies and to promote American support for them. So they're diving into these races trying to get the friendliest Democrats they can get. And that of course creates a reaction. In Malinowski's case, the thing that was really outrageous was he's a pretty moderate guy and he simply said, I'm not going to blank check funding to Israel. And I think they wanted to teach him a lesson in others. And I also think they feared that if he got reelected, he's an expert on national security and foreign policy, that he would become a voice that people would follow. So unless he was willing to pledge himself to be with them down the line, they were going to send a message.
- [17:09]
Sarah Longwell
What happens when it becomes a liability? Or is it a liability?
- [17:12]
David Axelrod
Well, we'll find out. We don't know. I mean, I think that you, because you are such a perspicacious viewer of politics, observer of politics. This is probably one of the more interesting questions in these Illinois races writ large. Will the AIPAC backed candidates win? Or for example, in that 9th district, there is a young progressive running. There are a bunch of candidates. She's not the front runner. The mayor of Evanston is. There's a state senator who AIPAC is backing. And I'm wondering how that young progressive candidate's gonna do as the other two tussle because they're more regular candidates and she's a more outspoken critic of Israel and aipac. So I think that's a fascinating piece of this Illinois election. Well, the degree to which it spills into the Senate race, I don't know because the Senate race weirdly has gotten less attention in some ways than some of these congressional races.
- [18:13]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, the thing you said about generational change is really real. I mean, I just. It's all over the focus groups when we do Gen Z stuff. Yeah, they really care about AIPAC funding. They really care about whether or not they feel like the candidates are going to be responsive to Israel as a foreign policy Leader.
- [18:30]
David Axelrod
It'll be interesting to see how the current war affects all of this too. I mean, this has added another log, potentially another log to the fire. But listen, let me just say on behalf of Gen Z, are you an
- [18:44]
Sarah Longwell
ambassador for Gen Z?
- [18:45]
David Axelrod
No, I am a self loathing baby boomer who is here to say we ought to get the hell out of the way. It's time for a new generation of leadership in this country that is less wedded to the way things have been done and more wedded to finding ways that are more appropriate to the 21st century. You know, Trump is fighting for the, I think, wrong headed ideas of the 19th century. There are a lot of Democrats who are very wedded to the policies of the 20th century. We're in the 21st century. We've got a new set of problems, a new set of tools. Let's bring in new energy. I think after Trump and after Biden and looking at the gerontocracy that is Congress, there's gonna be a revolt in 26 and 28 and you're gonna see younger leadership. And I say thank God for that.
- [19:38]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, well, so, you know, I'm just gonna stop on your perspicacious and just quickly tell you that one of the most embarrassing things that has ever happened to me was when I was with you on Hacks on Tap and I used a word that I had used my whole life was, which was diphthera, which I always thought. And I used it in the context of the absence of like the opposite of plethora. So if you didn't have a plethora, there's a depthora of interest, of enthusiasm. And you said, that's not a word. I've not heard that word. And I said, oh yeah, it means this. And I explained it to you, I explained its context and then for the first time, you're the first person to ever call me on it. And I googled it while I was on there and realized it was not in fact a word. And then I said as much on the show. I said, guys, you're going to have to cut that out. It's not actually a word. I don't know, I've been using it for so long. And not only did you keep me using it in, you kept in the part where I realized that it wasn't a word.
- [20:35]
David Axelrod
This is why I haven't been invited back to this podcast in a long time. But top five most perspicacious is a word. It means wise. I do know whether an A.P. diphthora was a word or not. There are a plethora of very impressive words that you know that I have heard. So let me attest to your perspicacity and let's move on.
- [20:57]
Sarah Longwell
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- [21:41]
David Axelrod
measure at no cost.
- [21:42]
Sarah Longwell
Rules and restrictions apply. The candidate who got the most buzz in the focus groups for good or for ill, was Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, who's been endorsed by Governor Pritzker and Senator Tammy Duckworth and has been heavy on the abolish ICE side of things.
- [21:57]
David Axelrod
Yes.
- [21:58]
Sarah Longwell
Which she has really made a wedge against Raja in this race. And one of the voters just alluded to in the in the previous set of sound an ad that she's running that our focus groups had lots of opinions about. And I gotta say, to the extent that I knew anything about this race, it was from that ad because it got a lot of national attention. Before we play it, though, because we're going to play the ad. If you've got kids in the car, I want you to skip ahead 60 seconds. And if you don't like the F word, you should also skip ahead 60 seconds. You've been warned. Here's the ad.
- [22:26]
David Axelrod
Also, get a new president if you feel that way, but go ahead.
- [22:30]
Sarah Longwell
Fuck Trump. Vote Giuliana. Fuck Trump. Vote Giuliana. Fuck Trump.
- [22:36]
David Axelrod
Vote Giuliana.
- [22:37]
Sarah Longwell
They said it, not me. I'm Juliana Stratton and I'm proud to have lived my whole life on the south side of Chicago. I'm not scared of a wannabe dictator. I'm running for Senate to stand up to Donald Trump. I'll abolish ICE and hold Trump accountable for the crimes he's committed, just like they said. Oh, fuck Trump.
- [22:56]
David Axelrod
Fuck Trump.
- [22:56]
Sarah Longwell
Fuck Trump. Vote Giuliana. That's why I approve this message. Good ad, David. Bad ad, David.
- [23:04]
David Axelrod
What do you think we should point out, because people can't see the images. But the last F. Trump testimonial came from Senator Duckworth herself. Yes, yes. Who as a decorated war veteran, probably has used that word more than once in her life, given everything that she went through. I had two reactions when I saw that. One was like an old world reaction that, like, yeah, there are kids in the room. But on the other, I had a strong feeling that it would cut through, because I think that's the attitude of a lot of, particularly a lot of Democratic voters. She is speaking to something real, which is that there is an element of the Democratic electorate that wants fighters who will take Trump on frontally and so on. There are others who want to win and govern. And probably, I think increasingly this argument is going to be less effective because as Trump's years wane down, the question is going to be what comes next? And this isn't an attack on anyone, not on Giuliano, who I thought delivered well in that ad. But, but, you know, the old expression that I think John Nance Garner started, Harry Truman picked up was, you know, any jackass can kick down the barn. It takes a carpenter to build one. Yeah, people are gonna be looking for carpenters at the end of Trump's four years. But right now, in a Democratic primary, this has currency and we'll see whether it's enough to win an election. But it certainly has animated what was a moribund campaign.
- [24:42]
Sarah Longwell
Yes. I will just say, for my part on this, I think things are funnier with bleeps. I think a well placed bleep can get your point across and is funnier, but that's just me.
- [24:53]
David Axelrod
No, you're right.
- [24:54]
Sarah Longwell
Let's listen to what the voters think. I think she's the one that has that commercial with people saying f Trump, and I just thought that that was unfortunate. That's not the way to go. You know, like people have said, I'm not hearing what she's going to do. So it's great to say f Trump, but so what? What are you gonna do? I watched that ad and I have no idea, like, what she stands for, what are her goals, what is her platform? And even as her being Lieutenant governor, I can't really tell you about initiatives or things that she's done or, you know, work that's been completed under her time as Lieutenant governor. So I just feel like, even though I should know more about her being in the public, public position that she's in now, I know a lot about what she's against, but I Don't really know what her plan would be. I saw something that.
- [25:48]
David Axelrod
It tickled me.
- [25:50]
Sarah Longwell
It made me laugh.
- [25:52]
David Axelrod
But it was right on point because in. In my opinion, it reached a lot of people in the urban community that talk. Like that commercial that she had where they were editing the word of. Well, I just said, frankly, f Trump. And I'm like, what.
- [26:22]
Sarah Longwell
Wait a minute.
- [26:23]
David Axelrod
Let me pull my glasses off.
- [26:25]
Sarah Longwell
What did she really say? And it said, f Trump, Trump. Vote for me. They.
- [26:33]
David Axelrod
They ran a commercial for about a whole week, and I just kept laughing, laughing, laughing, laughing. I was asking everybody, did you see that?
- [26:42]
Sarah Longwell
You should have never pulled it down. I got a kick out of it. I was so tickled because I was like, well, commercials have changed. In that debate that I went to, there wasn't a lot of substance to what she was saying, which was very frustrating to me, but also not to minimize her experience. But she was in the State House for two years and then was lieutenant Governor. And to me, Robin has more experience. And so I just. Yeah, I didn't love the ad with the Trump. Like, I'm sick of it. I don't want to hear about it anymore. I'm so tired. I don't know what Juliana Stratton's for. Like, I don't. I'm sitting here thinking, you're right. I don't know anything about her. All I know about her is that Pritzker's big on her and Duckworth endorsed her. Juliana kind of just attacks opponents in general, so I know what she's against, not really what she's for. And I think I've even said that when seeing an ad, I was like, I watched that ad, and I have no idea, like, what she stands for, what are her goals, what is her platform? And even as her being lieutenant governor, I can't really tell you about initiatives or things that she's done or, you know, work that's been completed under her time as Lieutenant governor. I'm used to old school Republicans like John McCain. You know, I'm not used to MAGA. They're a different beast. And sometimes I just wish you do have more candidates. That's not playing nice. So her commercial was cute, and she wasn't playing nice, and I like that. When I first saw it, I thought it was a spoof. I was, like, shocked that they would actually put that on, But, I mean,
- [28:34]
David Axelrod
it definitely stuck out.
- [28:35]
Sarah Longwell
It was very memorable.
- [28:37]
David Axelrod
And I agreed with her, you know, in that sense.
- [28:40]
Sarah Longwell
But, yeah, I was, like, completely like, oh, my God, I cannot believe that we're actually in this in today's day and age. I think she's the most forceful and also has, like, the most progressive as compared to Raja. Immediately I thought, oh, you got the same energy as him. No, like, that's immediately what I thought. Like, even though part of me was like, yeah, F him, but then I'm like, girl, this is so not professional. And that you don't have to say F him for us, it's okay. We say F him every day on our own. I found this conversation really interesting and partly because I think it gets the limits of our qualitative methods a little bit, because lots of people say that they hate political ads. Like, people can be a little bit unreliable sometimes on these types of things. But if there's one thing people know about Julia Hannah Stratton, it is the F Trump at, I don't know, they're sort of like worse pieces of information for low information, meaning just like not terminally political voters to have about you as they go vote in a Democratic primary. And obviously the polls have been showing Stratton closing in on Raja because he'd been leading every poll up until very recently. And there was a Public Policy Polling survey that had stratton leading Raja 33 to 30.
- [30:02]
David Axelrod
Yeah.
- [30:03]
Sarah Longwell
With Kelly back at 11. So it did something. And I struggle with it because it feels kind of both like kind of the punchy thing where that I would go for. I'm like, you got to do things that break through, guys. But also, I don't care actually for expletives Like, I don't even like Josh Shapiro's when he says, like, let's get shit done. I don't love it. I don't like swearing as a stand in for authenticity. I think it's like people try to use it as a shortcut and I don't care for it. But what do you make of all of it?
- [30:31]
David Axelrod
I think it was a Hail Mary from a candidate who was buried under a sea of media. As I said, I don't like it. I think you're right. A bleep would have been just as effective and everybody would have known what it meant. To me, what was interesting was this tug and pull between people who say, yeah, but who is she? What is she? And the people who said, yeah, I like that. I like taking it right to them. And as we said earlier, that's what this race is going to be about. But everybody in politics is struggling with a new media environment in which authenticity and grittiness and vertical Videos and all that are sort of what cut through that somehow you certify your authenticity by being profane or talking as you would privately or in a locker room or whatever. I think you're going to see more of it. And sometimes it comes off as artifice. She was smart enough not to use the word herself.
- [31:41]
Sarah Longwell
Herself, yeah.
- [31:42]
David Axelrod
But it comes off as artifice. And I think if she doesn't win, it's going to be because there was no other information about her that people could grab onto. And all they know is that she's the most profane and aggressive, or her ads are the most profane, aggressive assaults on Trump, but that she's promising to prosecute Trump and all of that. And we'll see if that's enough. But if it is, it goes back to my first point in this whole discussion, which is it'll be because Raja didn't fill in his own story to the point that it was resilient enough to offer folks something different to grab onto.
- [32:23]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, I am interested in seeing how it turns out, because I think that if she wins, coming from behind and taking on the person who spent tons of money, I have a slight fear, actually, that that kind of gimmicky stuff will catch on a little bit in 2026. And I. I guess I would urge candidates to find other ways of authenticity
- [32:44]
David Axelrod
than just, well, you know, I mean, we just saw a test of it in Texas, you know, with Tallarico versus Jasmine Crockett, who is a much more pointed, combative presence. Now, she was outspent five to one and made it a very close race, so there was a constituency for that. We should point out, too, that, you know, African Americans are a big component of the primary electorate In Illinois, probably 20 to 25%, maybe. And there are primaries in two heavily African American districts. So, you know, she's also trying to consolidate her base here. With that, Safeway and Albertsons have made
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Sarah Longwell
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Sarah Longwell
Well, whatever you want it to, so you can all enjoy the payoff come summer with VRBO's early booking deals. Rise and shine. Average savings, $141. Select homes only. I do want to talk about the third candidate in this race, Congresswoman Robin Kelly, who a lot of people had positive impressions of, but who is mired in third place in every public poll. She's 70 years old, which is notable. She's been basically a regular mainstream Democrat since she was elected in 2013. And I'm not sure if I think that this is exactly sort of a Janet Mills Platner situation, but it is interesting to me that as you listen, one of the things you'll hear is that people like her fine, and yet I think her age and potentially her mainstreamness are actually making her less interesting to voters. Let's listen. It's about the only candidate so far that I've heard policy stuff, what her agenda will be, what her agenda has been, you know, over the years that she's been in Congress, and she answers questions, you know, and it's. It's not just whatever you say. I'm gonna just go to the anti Trump messaging. I feel like maybe she doesn't have as much money, fundraising money as maybe the other. So I haven't seen as many ads from her as well. But I do know that there's been some attacks that she's kind of faced with some things that maybe she has misrepresented or maybe allegedly, like, lied about in the past. And I would need to do my own research about that. She was kind of responding to Juliana Stratton saying that she was going to, like, do take what worked in Illinois to D.C. and Robin said, like, but what works in Illinois does not work in Congress. Like, you can't just repeat that. And so she was saying, like, you do have to work with other people. You can't be antagonistic. And so she was saying that you do have to work with other people. You have to collaborate with people. And normally I'm like, I don't want to hear that, but I do think that it is what we need in that role. Right. You can't be super antagonistic. So I appreciate that about Robin. My only thought on her is, I mean, I think she's done fine in Congress and her votes have been, well, thought out and I've agreed with them. But when she turned me off was she let it drive to impeach someone? I'm thinking maybe it was Kristi Noem. And she even put that in an ad. She was so proud of it. I got 180 Democrats to support me on this and I think thought, what a colossal waste of time. I wouldn't be bragging about that when you're in the minority that votes going nowhere. I mean, because right after that she announced she was running for the Senate. So I think she thought that was going to be her big platform. And I saw that as being very disingenuous. So again, it was kind of the performative thing that like slightly turned people off. And I think right now they're much more interesting to me than the should we be more moderate or more progressive? Is this thing about, like, do we imitate Trump's style or do we do something different? Yes, that to me is actually both a much more interesting and I think more relevant. Like, I actually think that is what seems to be dividing Democratic voters and not policy. All right, hit me with your thoughts then.
- [37:49]
David Axelrod
Well, I couldn't agree with you more. I think that's what the Talarico Crockett race was about in Texas. And I think increasingly, as I said earlier, I think increasingly there's going to be a hunger for a different kind of politics. I think this is the mistake, the potential mistake that Governor Newsom is making because he has concluded that being the biggest, baddest troll on the block, anti Trump, troll on the block, is his ticket to the nomination. And I think by the time that race comes around, that's not gonna be what the market's asking for. They're gonna be, I don't think Democratic voters say we gotta, we have to get our own Trump. They're going to say we need the anti Trump. We need someone who's going to bring a different set of values, a completely different set of values. I think the country's going to be in the mood for a cleansing, not a continuation of the kind of politics that Trump models. So I think you're seeing some of that play out in these discussions here. And it's not, I know there is an element of, and there was in Texas, not so much this notion that, well, let's pick this guy because he has a better chance to win. That works somewhat for Tallarico, but there was also this let's pick this guy because he represents a refreshing difference from the status quo politics that we see today. I think the market for this is going to grow. She is being outspent dramatically by both candidates in this race, and that's a factor. I think if she had more funding, she'd probably be more in the mix here, probably to Stratton's detriment. Pritzker and those backing Stratton desperately wanted to keep her out of the race because they felt her votes would come from Stratton. And again, if Raja wins, that may be part of the reason.
- [39:40]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's interesting.
- [39:42]
David Axelrod
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- [44:38]
David Axelrod
Well, you're talking to a guy. I have a bias here because I helped elect a guy from Chicago president, so I don't know exactly what she was talking about. Look, there are other questions that people raise that I don't know the answer to, which is the billionaire piece. It was interesting to hear them talk about that because they saw it as a plus and not a minus. They felt that he was not a guy who could be bought.
- [45:04]
Sarah Longwell
Do you know who else does that?
- [45:06]
David Axelrod
JB Prince.
- [45:07]
Sarah Longwell
Trump voters.
- [45:07]
David Axelrod
Oh, yeah. No, no, no, no. That's absolutely true.
- [45:10]
Sarah Longwell
I always heard that from Trump voters. Still do about Trump, that the fact that he is rich meant that he couldn't be bought and he didn't have to care about what other billionaires wanted to do.
- [45:18]
David Axelrod
The difference is that doesn't mean that he's not for sale, though.
- [45:21]
Sarah Longwell
That's right.
- [45:22]
David Axelrod
Yes. So that's the difference. Look, I have to tell you, by the way, one woman said, I don't know if he has the fire in the belly. Interestingly, he has less belly these days, and I think he's got plenty of fire. He's lost a ton of weight, which is always, to me, a prelude for a guy who's planning to run for president. Sure, that's the first tell. But he had run for Congress in the 90s. He wasn't really prepared at that time for the race. Schakowski, in fact, beat him in a primary in 1998. And his next foray into politics was when he ran for governor eight years ago. And it was really an open question as to how he would perform. He was starting on a very big stage. And I think he's a really, really good politician. And I mean that in the best sense of the word. He's very comfortable in front of a camera or a microphone. He does seem very authentic and honest when he speaks. And one woman mentioned. I don't know if. I don't remember if that was in that mashup, but one woman mentioned the leadership that he provided when ICE came to town. And it was really, really admirable. I mean, I think everyone in the area appreciated that he was our voice, he was standing up for us and what was right and for people and for humanity. And so I've seen a lot of skills here and a lot of qualities that would serve him well in a presidential race. But the billionaire piece was one question. Interestingly, there are a Lot of Jewish candidates in this, potentially in this race. I was joking with one of them that a few more candidates and they'd have a Minion, you know, 10 of them, that's all they need. But how that plays in this environment, how that plays into the race. I say that as a Jew, you know, we tend to over, over worry about those things, but in this environment, it's not crazy to think about. And Illinois itself, he's done well in many ways. Illinois's still has its challenges. It's one of the highest tax states in the country and so on. So anytime you have a governor, the opposition is going to say this is what Illinois is. Do you want the country to be this? We saw this years ago when Mike Dukakis ran for president in the 80s. That's the campaign the Republicans ran against him. A fundraiser for JB Pritzker is a one keystroke on his cell phone.
- [47:54]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [47:55]
David Axelrod
And he's fully funded. And that is a great advantage. One detriment. I think he was mad at me for saying it publicly. I thought it was a mistake for him to run for reelection because, you know, I think Newsom will have an advantage, Bashir will have an advantage. They'll be able to travel the country unfettered, day after day after day for two years. And you know, when you're a governor, you have responsibilities. It's going to be harder for him. But put that all together and I take him seriously as a candidate and I think being from outside of Washington is a great asset and I think he's a very skilled candidate. If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook
- [48:41]
Sarah Longwell
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David Axelrod
to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time
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Sarah Longwell
left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done with its two juicy beef patties and three slices of melted cheese topped with tangy Big Arch sauce. The Big Arch is what happens when you start making a McDonald's burger and never stop. The Big Arch, the most McDonald's McDonald's burger yet for a limited time. This is my half baked theory for both Pritzker and Shapiro, which is that I don't think being Jewish is gonna be a liability. I think it's gonna be an asset. But here's why I think that the Democrats are gonna find Israel gonna be a huge wedge issue in the Democratic primary. But as a Jewish person who criticizes the way that Israel has been behaving, I believe that you are gonna end up in the sweet spot as opposed to the sour spot where you can feel very authentically yourself. Whereas I think everybody else is going to either be either worried about being anti Semitic or being called anti Semitic. I mean, I think if Kamala were to rerun her election, I think she would handle the Israel question quite differently. I wouldn't be surprised if the candidate's Jewish is my takeaway.
- [50:09]
David Axelrod
That's interesting. You talk about Shapiro, you talk about Pritzker, you talk about Rahm Emanuel, another Illinoisan who came up briefly in these groups. And all of them are deeply critical of Netanyahu and the Israeli policy. And so that speaks to what you're talking about. It's very hard to assail a Jewish candidate as anti Semitic if they're attacking the policies of Netanyahu. And look, I'm the son of a Jewish refugee and I have deep, deep, deep concerns about Netanyahu and the policy that Israel has pursued. And I've been outspoken about it and I feel free to do that. Netanyahu once called Rahman me self loathing Jews because we supported a two state solution. So it's interesting what you say and you may be right. I don't know whether it means the candidate will be Jewish. But your point is that that isn't necessarily a hindrance in the process of getting nominated.
- [51:11]
Sarah Longwell
I think that's right. That is what I mean. I think I've heard this a lot. Can it be a black woman? Can the person be gay? Can the person be Jewish? Like that is just so much. And it's not even, that's not even just the pundits. It is the armchair psychology of the voters that have kind of internalized this idea that maybe we're too sexist, maybe we're too racist, maybe we're too homophobic, maybe we're too anti Semitic. Like maybe we're all the things and so these people can't get elected. And I actually think that is not the case.
- [51:40]
David Axelrod
Yeah, I'd say to people, stop calculating so much. Because I think there's something bigger here, which is forget about who you are, what you look like, where you come from. The question is, do you have humility? Do you have integrity? Do you have honesty? Do you have empathy? Do you have competence? Are you from outside the system and in a position to assail the problems in the system, not just the problems with Trump. Do you have a vision for what comes next and not just rebuilding what was, but renewing and building something new and better and more resilient? There are so many more important things that are going to determine this next election. And I think, Sarah, that this is an election that may mirror more than any other to the extent that any elections are alike. 1976, after Watergate, the country just was looking for a cleansing. And I think there's going to be a mood for a cleansing and that's going to. And if, you know, Democratic Party gets very tied up in knots about identity politics and so on, forget about all that. There are bigger things here. There are bigger things.
- [52:58]
Sarah Longwell
That's right. I agree with all of that. David Axelrod, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks for coming back on the show.
- [53:07]
David Axelrod
Always a pleasure, my friend. You're a bright light out there and I appreciate what you are doing. The folks at the Bulwark and I love focus groups. You know that I'm a second generation aficionado because my mother was in the qualitative research business.
- [53:22]
Sarah Longwell
I know.
- [53:23]
David Axelrod
I've been around focus groups all my life. I've eaten more M&Ms. Than you can imagine.
- [53:28]
Sarah Longwell
Well, well, I'll tell you this. I just wrote a book, I don't know if you know this, it's called how to Eat an Elephant One Voter at a Time just went on sale for pre order. It is already a bestseller because the Bulwark audience is the absolute best and they went out and pre ordered it like just animals. They just got after it.
- [53:44]
David Axelrod
You know what you need to do? The way to seal the deal is to come on hacks on tap and get our listeners to pre order as well because I will shamelessly hawk the book for you.
- [53:56]
Sarah Longwell
Well, I love a good plug. But for people who listen to this show, obviously the voters are at the heart of this book. But the one thing I'll say is that very few people that I talk to end up sort of getting at my thesis of the book and my publisher won't like it that I'm talking about it. But I'm just going to say this idea of needing a cleansing and needing to understand which lessons we take from Trump around the communications without taking the lesson of the actual, like the negativity.
- [54:27]
David Axelrod
Like there are things to learn.
- [54:29]
Sarah Longwell
There are things to learn from what he did in communications. But mimicking him, mirroring him is actually not what voters want and is not the path forward.
- [54:39]
David Axelrod
I agree. The one thing I will say about him, and the one thing that is absolutely the coin of the realm in politics is authenticity. And whatever you think about Trump, and yes, he's an inveterate liar and all of that stuff, but no one ever says, gee, I wish he'd speak his mind. That is never a question. You always know what he's thinking. Sometimes you wish that he wouldn't speak his mind and sometimes he speaks his mind and it's horrifying to see and that's why he's comfortable. Like he'll sit down with anybody and he'll just say what's on his mind. That's an important attribute in this modern age. You know, you just hope that what's on your mind is, is wholesome and less self interested than the stuff that occupies him.
- [55:24]
Sarah Longwell
I think that's right. And that is all in the book, my friend. So go pre order it now. Of course I'll come on hacks and tap and plug my book. It's not out for six months though. But I have written it.
- [55:33]
David Axelrod
Well, we will have you on several times and by the time your book comes out, people will be salivating for it. They'll be ordering multiple editions and sending them to their relatives and friends.
- [55:43]
Sarah Longwell
That is my hope. Hope. That is my hope. Okay, everyone, thanks so much for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, go rate us on Apple podcasts. You know, subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube, become a Bulwark plus member at the bullwork.com, do all that stuff by the book and we'll see you next week. With its two juicy beef patties and three slices of melted cheese topped with grilled tangy Big Arch sauce. The Big Arch is what happens when you start making a McDonald's burger and never stop. The Big Arch, the most McDonald's McDonald's burger yet for a limited time.