The Focus Group Podcast
S6 Ep3: "Secure Borders...At What Cost?"
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: Adrian Carrasquillo
Date: September 20, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode dissects the deep, evolving complexities surrounding immigration policy in the U.S.—especially as it relates to the Hispanic electorate, shifting attitudes among Trump voters, and the practical and moral costs of "securing the border." Drawing from recent focus groups of Hispanic Trump voters expressing regret, as well as broader conversations with voters, host Sarah Longwell and guest Adrian Carrasquillo explore how personal experiences, cultural issues, political extremism, and the broken immigration system intersect.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Enduring “Ace”: Immigration, and the Hispanic Vote

• (03:20) Sarah frames immigration as Trump’s core political strength—even when his overall approval is low, he retains relative support on handling immigration.
• (05:55) The focus: Why are sizable numbers of Hispanic Trump voters disaffected? How are communities reconciling Trump’s tough policies with their lived realities?

2. On the “Broken” Immigration System: Theory Collides with Reality

• (04:11–05:49) Both parties and the public broadly agree the system is broken. But “broken” means different things: difficulty getting legal status, lack of fairness (“line cutting”), and the human cost when neighbors and families are suddenly deported.
• Adrian: “Americans are getting it in their face, seeing what a broken immigration system looks like.” (03:35)

3. Focus Group Voices: Buyers’ Remorse and Voter Alienation

• (06:16-11:34) Hispanic Trump voters’ candid feedback revealed:
  • Regret about voting for Trump, citing extremism, broken promises, and a loss of American global stature.
  • Disillusionment with both parties—most would not have voted for Harris or Biden if given the option.
  • Frustrations that cultural issues ("woke," trans issues) had been weaponized, influencing their vote but now eclipsed by disappointment with results and methods.
• Memorable quotes:
  • “He’s a big baby with a bigger button.” (06:18)
  • “Now I see that he’s starting to see his citizens and the citizens of other countries as less human, more as statistics.” (09:17)
  • “I can't remember one where we've had a number of Trump voters express this much buyer's remorse. It was genuinely somewhat surprising..." – Sarah (10:17)

4. Why Don’t Disillusioned Voters Flock to Democrats?

• (11:34–15:51) Adrian notes that while Trump support has eroded, these voters still don’t trust or feel drawn to Democrats, often citing weak leadership or lack of cultural connection.
• “There's this tremendous, obvious opportunity where all these voters have soured on Trump, but they're not flocking to the Democratic Party.” – Adrian (13:47)
• Both hosts reflect that, under focus-group scrutiny, social issues (especially transgender rights) matter—but ultimately, "prices" (cost of living) and the economy drive the deepest anxieties.

5. The Role of Cultural Issues in Hispanic Political Behavior

• (15:51–17:18) Both acknowledge that “woke”/transgender debates still resonate and can be coded as proxies for bigger frustrations with perceived Democratic extremism or disconnect.
• Adrian: “This is an economic argument… they're focused on this extreme thing and I'm focused on bread and butter economy, etc.” (16:08)
• Sarah: “These social issues have always mattered to Hispanics, but… people will be like, but I'm glad he got rid of transgender stuff for kids.” (15:21)

6. Personal Cost of Immigration Enforcement: “At What Cost?”

• (19:09–22:11) Hispanic Trump voters describe real, local impacts:
  • Feelings of increased safety with stricter border enforcement, but distress at children separated from parents, friends’ families torn apart, and the ethnic targeting of Hispanic communities.
  • “We got that [border control]. But at what cost? Many innocent people have been taken away.” (22:00)
  • Community anxiety: school letters reassuring parents ICE can’t enter, neighborhood warnings, direct experiences of ICE detentions.
• “I want the border secure, but at what cost refrain is instructive.” – Sarah (23:17)

7. Democratic Response & The Future of Immigration Debate

• (23:18–26:08)
  • “Democrats now start from square one,” with the system “crippled” by harsh policies—giving them latitude to propose more moderate, compassionate alternatives.
  • Adrian explains how close-to-home impacts shift perceptions: “Cubans, Venezuelans, Colombians… thought they were on Team Trump, but now realize Team Trump's not on their side.” (24:12)
  • Sarah: “When there are personal consequences, people feel differently.” (24:58)

8. How Did Hispanic Voters Not Foresee Harsh Immigration Crackdowns?

• (26:08-27:21) Many saw it as a choice between two unsatisfying extremes—the “lesser of two evils.” Economic hopes outweighed fears over method or rhetoric.
• Adrian: “I think they just thought better of these two evils… and now they're confronted with this reality, they're being smacked in the face.” (26:26)
• Sarah: “If we had a drinking game where... someone said 'lesser of two evils,' we'd be dead.” (27:21)

9. Race, Gender, and Political Choice (Kamala Harris)

• (28:24–29:57) Adrian and Sarah discuss the possibility of sexism/racism affecting attitudes toward Harris, with Adrian noting that polling rarely captures private biases, but cultural barriers are real.
• Adrian: “We are a pretty racist nation and pretty sexist, but we're more sexist.” (28:44)

10. National Guard Deployments, ICE Raids, and “Law and Order”

• (31:15–34:49) Mixed feelings about National Guard presence in cities: some see it as “government overreach,” others as necessary in gang-plagued areas. Most express concern it’s a temporary or excessive fix; a few see it as “cleaning up” but feel uncomfortable with the optics.
• “I just feel like it's government overreach... taking power away from the state, the city, and going immediately to the federal government...” (32:51)

11. Tactics of Community Fear: Reporting from Chicago

• (34:49–38:35) Adrian details how activists in cities like Chicago are bracing, learning from L.A., and focusing on non-confrontation as Trump’s playbook seeks to provoke—and justify—militarized crackdowns.
• Human stories: beloved community members suddenly deported after decades, families upended.
• “A beloved flower guy was picked up on Sunday, deported by Tuesday.” (36:25)

12. Experiences Beyond the Hispanic Community: Broader Trump Voter Reactions

• (40:21–45:20) Non-Hispanic Trump voters were sometimes less personally affected, but some express unease at blanket raids, constitutional overreach, and racial profiling.
• “If these roles were reversed and it was happening to all the white people, there'd be hell to pay.” (43:41)

13. Has the Overton Window Moved? Is There Room for a Compromise?

• (46:41–48:57) Hosts consider whether the public will ever again accept a “compassionate middle.” Economic insecurity and border security will still shape the debate, but personal stories of inhumanity may shift public sentiment over time.

14. The Path Forward—Or Out of the Maze?

• (51:40–57:19; 52:31–55:03) Both discuss the challenges and potential avenues for a common-sense immigration framework: streamline legal immigration, increase resources for courts, create worker-first plans, and move beyond the Rube Goldberg complexity of current law.
• “Immigration is American culture.” – Sarah (49:05)
• “They want our labor, but they don't want us... they want our food, or our music, but they don't want us.” – Adrian (56:35)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Immigration is American culture. I am very pro immigration… we put ourselves together in this great stew, and we try to sort it out.” – Sarah Longwell (49:05)
• "We got that [stricter borders]. But at what cost? Many innocent people have been taken away." – Focus Group participant (22:00)
• "A beloved flower guy was picked up on Sunday, deported by Tuesday." – Adrian Carrasquillo (36:25)
• "If these roles were reversed and it was happening to all the white people, there'd be hell to pay." – Focus Group participant (43:41)
• "There's a lot of this feeling... they want our labor, but they don't want us. They want our food, or our music, but they don't want us." – Adrian (56:35)
• "There's this tremendous, obvious opportunity where all these voters have soured on Trump, but they're not flocking to the Democratic Party." – Adrian (13:47)

Segments & Timestamps

(Note: Topical ad reads skipped)

| Segment Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------|----------------------| | Introduction & Trump’s immigration “ace” | 00:32–03:20 | | Defining “broken” immigration system | 04:11–05:49 | | Hispanic Trump voter focus group—regrets | 06:16–11:34 | | Why not Democrats? Buyer’s remorse dynamics | 11:34–15:51 | | Social/cultural issues and their role | 15:51–17:18 | | Immigration “at what cost” and local impacts | 19:09–22:11 | | The challenge for Democrats and close-to-home effect | 23:18–26:08 | | How did voters miss Trump’s immigration extremism? | 26:08–27:21 | | Race, gender and attitudes toward Kamala Harris | 28:24–29:57 | | National Guard, ICE raids & “law and order” | 31:15–34:49 | | Community fear, reporting from Chicago | 34:49–38:35 | | Non-Hispanic voter focus groups on immigration | 40:21–45:20 | | Overton window, consequences for compromise | 46:41–48:57 | | The challenge (and hope) for a new immigration debate | 51:40–57:19 |

Tone & Style

The episode is marked by candid, sober analysis—balancing empathy for real people’s struggles with a willingness to critique both sides’ failures. Sarah and Adrian maintain a conversational, accessible style, grounded in direct focus group testimony and Adrian’s on-the-ground reporting.

Summary Takeaways

• Personal experience is reshaping the immigration debate—as policies play out in local communities, “theoretical” support for hardline enforcement is colliding with the pain of friends, family, and neighbors being detained or deported.
• A growing number of Hispanic Trump voters now express regret—but many remain alienated from the Democratic Party, perceiving cultural disconnect or insufficient leadership.
• Social issues (‘woke’/trans rights) remain salient among Hispanics—often surfacing in focus groups as a rationale for GOP votes, even as those issues fade beneath economic and immigration anxieties.
• Practical consequences, including National Guard deployments and ICE raids, are creating a culture of fear in immigrant-heavy areas, with long-term community impacts.
• There is a significant opening for a pragmatic, compassionate, and broadly supported immigration compromise—but both parties remain stuck, either too extreme or too diffident.
• Economic arguments—labor needs, business impacts—may provide a political bridge, but only if paired with dignity and full integration of immigrants into American life.

The debate is not static: as the border “crisis” ebbs and flows, the key political question will be, "At what cost?"—not just to policy goals, but to people, communities, and the American social fabric.