Adrian Carrasquillo (2:42)

I was just having the conversation with the producer right before this, and it's like, some of this stuff can feel like, okay, we want to do these check ins, maybe quarterly or like, there's a similar shape to some of these conversations. And I'll never forget the first time that I was hearing Latino Trump supporters was when I was doing the prep for the first focus group. And it was after Guantanamo Bay. And these were people saying, like, hey, look, you know, immigrants take our jobs, or using some of these talking points, you know, from Magger on the right. But then they were saying, but this Guantanamo thing's not cool. This is dictatorship. And they were using, you know, words like Nazi and stuff like that. And that was like, okay. And then we saw it again with Venezuela, and we saw them just shipping people without due process and people being like, actually, it's not okay to ruin someone's life just, just because of an administrative error. So this is the stuff that I think is super important. And now checking in a few months later, as the summer's coming to an end, folks are saying, like, delta border was out of control, we needed to fix that. But then the way he's doing it is so dramatic. The way he's doing it is inhumane. And they just go down the line because it's going into their communities. This is easy to have these conversations, theoretically, or maybe you're watching Fox News and you're just like, we gotta tone that down. And it's a harder conversation when it's your neighbor, when the kids in school. So that's the stuff that I've really seen that Americans have been confronted. A lot of us that do this every day, we've been hearing for years on the left and the right, the immigration system's broken. And everybody pretty much agrees that that's the case. But what we've done now is Americans are getting it in their face to seeing what a broken immigration system looks like.

Sarah Longwell (4:11)

To dig in on that just slightly. When you say that it's broken and people know it's broken, is it like, stemmed astern? It's broken in the sense that we don't seem to have a way to know who's in the country, who's coming through, like an orderly system to process people. Because I do think, having listened to voters talk about immigration so long, people always say the same thing, right? They want people to come the right way. And that assumes that there's like a super easy, normal way to gain citizenship in this country. Something that is, it takes a reasonable amount of time and that, you know, an average person could get through and be vetted and whatnot. But, like, what do people think is the broken part?

Adrian Carrasquillo (4:52)

I mean, Sarah, you know this when people have talked for like a couple decades, but certainly over the last decade about a broken immigration system, and that was agreed to by folks on the left and on the right, it was because people said, hey, it's not fair. Like, I've been on this so called line forever and there's people they feel are cutting or they feel like what you just said, that this system, there's something wrong with the way that we process people and how do we get from, you know, people understanding that we need legal immigration, we need labor wanting to sort of stem some of the illegal immigration stuff. So I fully always admit that that's part of that conversation that you'll have with voters. And I think the other part that people are seeing when I talk about broken is also like, we see it so much. Whoa, whoa, whoa, wait. This guy's my neighbor. He goes to my church. He's been here 15 years. He's been here 25 years. One of the focus group people said, it's not my family, but it's my kids, friends and they took their dad. And so that's where people are like, whoa, I didn't sign up for that. Or I didn't think that this was what was going to happen when he took control.

Sarah Longwell (5:49)

Yeah. All right. I want to get into the focus group, especially what I alluded to at the top, which is the Hispanic Trump voters who disapprove of his job performance. We'll get into immigration in a minute, but I first just want to listen to their general assessment of the Trump presidency. Let's listen. I wanted to kind of feel pride in being American again because, you know, when you think of America, you think of something big and bad and strong and, you know, like respect it. I don't know, it seemed like it was kind of going the opposite.

Adrian Carrasquillo (6:16)

And under Trump, you know, you do.

Sarah Longwell (6:18)

Feel power, you do feel presence. To me, he, he's a big baby with a bigger button. So it's either him or Conlan. I chose him by such a slight margin.

Adrian Carrasquillo (6:26)

I was very concerned with the extreme leftist woke what they say woke culture. I have a 12 year old who's a competitive swimmer, travels everywhere and there was all these things going on with the new culture and men swimming in girls sports and men's. And there was such an extreme on the leftist with this That I began to get concerned because I'm like, I'm.

Sarah Longwell (6:54)

All for equal rights, but no way.

Adrian Carrasquillo (6:56)

In hell am I going to have my daughter competing against a boy, a.

Sarah Longwell (7:01)

Biological male, for swim.

Adrian Carrasquillo (7:05)

I would be mortified if she told me that a male is using a restroom with her. It seems that there was no longer common sense. And I just really felt that Trump was going to put a stop to this. I thought that the economy would just get better. And I personally know so many people that have lost jobs that it's insane. I live on the East Coast. There's a lot of federal workers. And the other day I called the dentist and he said, oh, yeah, you know, we've had a lot of these workers who no longer have the federal insurance. And I'm like, wow. So it's a lot more rampant than the news. I think the news doesn't really say what's really going going on. They've gotten rid of all these big people who are experts in fields, and Trump has just eliminated them. And I'm like, this is really scary. What's the reality TV show on today? Today is vaccines. You can't, according to the media, you can no longer go into CVS and get vaccinated if you choose to.

Sarah Longwell (8:12)

So we had the left, which was extreme, and now we have the right.

Adrian Carrasquillo (8:18)

Who'S on another complete extreme. And it's just like, there's no balance.

Sarah Longwell (8:23)

I thought, well, let's just give him another try.

Adrian Carrasquillo (8:26)

Even though there was a lot of.

Sarah Longwell (8:28)

Hateful things that were happening the first time around, I just kind of tried to look past that, and I think it just kind of went to his head. So now he's like, oh, I got away with it. They did reelect me, so now I can do whatever I want. And his little guard that he might have had is down, and he's just power hungry. I don't know. I don't really agree with anything he's done. So I really questioned why I even made the choice to vote for him. This is the President of peace, right? That was a bunch of B.S. right? Now it's worse than it was five years ago. Okay? I don't know anything that's going to stop this war in Gaza at this moment, especially after the Doha attack yesterday, you know, you would think that one of the big reasons also was I voted, was like, okay, this guy's gonna actually do something about Israel and Gaza, right? So Palestinians deserve a break. I'm sick of it. I've been in this country for what, 45 years now and I love America, but I'm just getting depressed here, you know what I mean? You kind of just get all the negative. My wife is Colombian. Every time we go to Colombia, people like, oh, I hate America. Like, nobody wants to come here. You know, I mean, it's kind of sad, right? We're not the country like we used to be. People love this country. They wanted to come here and it's just going the wrong direction. And I don't know what's going to change it. I don't know. Is he really going to make a difference in the next three years, three months, God knows. But right now it's just he hasn't lived up to any of my expectations. But I look at it now and I see such a level of extremism. I always knew he was always like a madman, a man who would always, you know, go on the offense, lesson, defense. But now I see that he's starting to see his citizens and the citizens of other country as less human, more as statistics. Not only has he not lived up to his promises, where we've barely seen any change compared to, you know, that 50 drought that we were going to thinking he was going to bring those 2016, 2020 statistics that he had brought and the economy that he had before to now we see that he is super extremist and ignoring history. He's taking down government history websites, he's changing to the Department of War. It seems that power has stayed in control of his mind. So, Adrian, I gotta say we do a lot of focus groups. I can't remember one where we've had a number of Trump voters express this much buyers remorse. It was genuinely somewhat surprising to me. So about 43% of Hispanic voters voted for Trump in 2024, which was up from about 35% in 2020. But Trump's approval rating with Hispanics, I was talking about this at the top. Is down as low as 32% in some polls. So how are Democrats seeing the way forward with the Hispanic vote? And is there disagreement with the way forward? But like, clearly there's an opportun, this group of people where they voted for Trump, but they don't necessarily feel locked in forever to Republicans.

Adrian Carrasquillo (11:34)

Yeah, there's so much good stuff there. There are so many great quotes there too. First of all, I kind of do love when people are like, and the media just not doing this job. And I'm like, well then that's how you got the story of the vaccines. You literally just said that. Later the media told me that but anyway, I love the media is always going to get hit. I found actually interesting from New Jersey was talking about right before we lead into her getting into transition, she was talking about open borders and she was just like from open borders to trans issues. Like I was not down with the, the woke left and all the stuff she was talking about. And that also made me think about how MAGA and Trump really like grabbed hold of that narrative from stuff that I think was you couldn't argue that the border that had to get under control. And a lot of people also Democrats knew that that was an issue to the way that they were able to make trans like one of the top issues in the election, you know, which a lot of people now would prob they that's not one of the top things they're thinking about. So that stuff is interesting when I think about Democrats and I was actually thinking earlier for my newsletter, I want to find this quote that I got from a Democratic aide we were talking about. There's always this like buyer's remorse that we start getting into these conversations. So I remember when we did a focus group earlier this year, half of the Hispanics in Arizona were regretting their vote, but it was still early. So they were kind of like, I'm upset. But only half of them were willing to say, I regret the vote. In this one, they all said they regret the vote. The part for Democrats that's challenging is none of them said they would have voted for Harris. They said they either wouldn't have voted or they would have voted third party or something. So there's this tremendous obvious opportunity where now all these voters have completely soured on Trump and there's these opportunities for 2026, 2028, and what are Democrats going to do? And when I spoke to this Democratic aide, he was just like, because there's so much anger at like Schumer and Jeffries and they were just like Democrats focus group stuff to hell, like poll stuff, but also sort of don't stand for anything. They're so scared to say something. They're still worried about the November results. And I think that's what people are looking for, like leadership. To answer your question, I constantly am sort of checking on that. And I don't know that much has changed. I do know that people say how are we going to deal with another three plus years of this? You know, and so there is that immense fear there. And I think Democrats are still finding their way. We see people like Gallego and we see people who are saying we can Be sensible on immigration. Like, people understand that we need certain things like labor and we need some level of immigration. And we can still, without using the words America first, we can still take care of our workers and we can still take care of the people here and not make it feel like people are cutting a line. There's people who are trying, you know, and it's, it's not like it has 100 approval rating either. But that's the big question because there appears to be all these people who are just like over Trump, but they're not flocking to the Democratic Party.

Sarah Longwell (14:17)

Yeah. And I would say you rarely get a full group of people saying that they regret their vote. I will say when you ever, you do encounter people who either they regret or they're just like, not happy with how things are going, and you're like, well, would you have rather voted for Kamala? And people say no. They don't say they want to vote for Democrats. They wouldn't have voted for Biden either. Btw, it is a show me somebody else. You did just say something that I want to push back on a little bit, which is you were saying she got into the trans stuff and, and that people aren't talking about that as much anymore. What I would say is that they do care about the trans stuff. And obviously because of the Charlie Kirk stuff, it is back in the news. Like, they very much wanted a transgender angle because it is something. I actually hear it in lots of focus groups. It animates things in a way where somebody's talking about the extremism of the right. Someone will immediately pivot to, well, Democrats don't even know the difference between a man and a woman. And so like, they use that sort of thing where they'll say like, they don't even understand this most fundamental thing. And I can see that with Hispanics. These social issues have always mattered to Hispanics, but they don't matter the way, like when you hear people right now, where they jump in, in the beginning, they'll say, the thing I'm most upset about is prices. Right. Like, you do hear people talking about the excessive nature of the way people are being deported. But a lot of times people will be like, but I'm glad he got rid of transgender stuff for kids. You know, like, they'll like point to that as one of the good things. Talk to me about the way that that issue in particular, you think maybe impacted Hispanic voters.

Adrian Carrasquillo (15:51)

One of my longest time sources that I always check in on, he does a lot of work with Hispanic voters. And he made the argument that that big ad that everybody talked about, the New York Times wrote about that it was like Trump's big, like trans ad.

Sarah Longwell (16:06)

You know, Kamala's for they, them. Trump is for you.

Adrian Carrasquillo (16:08)

Exactly. And he was just like, this is an economic argument and this is an argument that is saying they don't get it. Like, they don't get you. They're focused on this extreme thing and I'm focused on bread and butter economy, etc. And it's like a pretty simple argument. And so we're having these conversations again recently and he's talking about how Democrats in the Obama era understood cultural stuff and that now they're adrift and they don't understand cultural stuff. But I think it gets into that comparison of like, no, you're absolutely right. People bring up the woke stuff and they bring up the trans stuff. But then that's butting up against now the economy stuff and the things where they're like, actually, this is more important. And now that you can make that conversation, yeah, Democrats have messed up, but what are Trump folks doing with the extremism that's going on there? What I've realized in this year is when we see these focus groups and people are like, where do you get your news? X so the way that the media narrative is just so different from 10 years ago and where people are getting their news, it helps you understand the way that people rank certain issues. But again, as we always know, when there's this buyer's remorse about prices, some of that other stuff can go away a little bit.

Sarah Longwell (17:18)

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Adrian Carrasquillo (19:09)

I do like that our borders are secure now.

Sarah Longwell (19:12)

Do I agree with how it's been.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:14)

Done and you know, the process? You know, absolutely not. But yeah, I, I feel more safe now that the borders are closed and not completely wide open as if when.

Sarah Longwell (19:26)

It was Biden's administration basically I going.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:30)

Into schools and I honestly, I just.

Sarah Longwell (19:34)

Think it's just at home, the kids go home and their parents aren't there. You know, they expect them to be.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:40)

There and they're just not there.

Sarah Longwell (19:41)

And then I also want to go.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:43)

Back to that question that you asked before.

Sarah Longwell (19:46)

What was it that I was looking for in 2025 January regarding the immigration.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:52)

I just didn't think that he was.

Sarah Longwell (19:53)

Going to go ahead and change basically.

Adrian Carrasquillo (19:55)

Like, you know, the kids that were born here, ending the birth rate, I feel like if they were already born here, why change it?

Sarah Longwell (20:03)

I personally had a friend who his dad got taken away, didn't hear from him for two months even when he asked like local governments like hey, have you heard about my dad? What information do you have about like reports? There was no information about him being in detention center and he told me personally that he hadn't heard from her for two months until he called him from Mexico where he got sent personally where I live. It's been a lot of action that has made a lot of people uncomfortable. And recently, you know, Desantis got the commodore of Florida really sided with Trump. But saying Alligator Alcatraz was an attempt to be made to put a detention center in the Everglades. All that feels really close to home because it is close to home, it is near to my house, near to where I go to school and you to where I work. I've even seen them come to Wawa where I work. They've gone in there and, you know, they bought stuff. Being on the west coast and California and whatnot, there is problems, right? We see it in front of us. So that has gotten better in that sense. But then you see the other flip side where you see families being ripped apart, right? I didn't think it was going to be that dramatic where it's going to be hurtful in that sense. So that kind of changed your, your mood from like, okay, the country is getting better on that immigration part. You know, the borders are getting more strict, but you know, at what cost, right? So reason I voted for Trump. Like I said, I live in New York. The immigration crisis here was getting out of hands.

Adrian Carrasquillo (21:29)

We're all being targeted as well, you.

Sarah Longwell (21:31)

Know, like the actual hard working migrants that came here, they're being grouped together.

Adrian Carrasquillo (21:35)

Like the violent ones.

Sarah Longwell (21:36)

I am ethnically Venezuelan. I was born here, but I'm ethically Venezuelan. We have a really, really bad name now. It's terrible. People hate us now. It's extremely unfair. They think we're all gang members, stuff like that.

Adrian Carrasquillo (21:46)

So I think it's important to have that divide.

Sarah Longwell (21:49)

And there's this gang from Venezuela that came here. I wanted them gone. They were terrorizing Times Square. I'm for immigration. People want to come for better lives and that's fine. But at the same time, there has to be much better border control.

Adrian Carrasquillo (22:00)

And we got that. But at what cost? Many innocent people have been taken away. I just feel like, you know, as soon as he started, it was almost.

Sarah Longwell (22:08)

Like, I'm in charge again. I'm dictator.

Adrian Carrasquillo (22:11)

I'm going to do stuff like I've never done it before without taking any thought and consideration about the American people. And that's just one topic.

Sarah Longwell (22:21)

We live in a highly Hispanic area. My kids will get letters home saying we won't let ICE come in. And you know, they can't come into the kids school to get the kids. Or sometimes like a week or so.

Adrian Carrasquillo (22:32)

Ago, somebody in our area, in our.

Sarah Longwell (22:34)

Neighborhood got picked up from ice. And I mean, it's just like, you see it more and more. And there's like, in our neighborhood they have like announcements like, ICE is here.

Adrian Carrasquillo (22:43)

Today and it's just a big thing.

Sarah Longwell (22:46)

My family is not worried about it, but my kids go to school here and they have friends that they're, they're worried about it. And for kids that that's not okay to be worried that they're going to come home and not have their parents home. I think the I want the border secure, but at what cost refrain is instructive. How do you think the immigration debate in future Democratic primaries will be different from how it was in 2019? You know, what are the different schools of thought on how to handle immigration policy in the future from Democrats?

Adrian Carrasquillo (23:18)

Oh, it's going to be completely different. I mean, we could talk about Julian Castro in 2020 primary, wanted to, like, decriminalize crossing the border. We've reached such a place where now that he shut everything down and now that he got rid of legal programs for refugees, all this, everything is just completely been crippled. Democrats start from there, and they can now choose. Honestly, I don't think they're sitting there saying, like, they're happy this happened. I think it could benefit them politically because Trump has just like, crushed so much stuff in terms of immigration. They can now decide what to stand up and say, you know, what, if somebody was helping us in Afghanistan, we can bring them here and this is messed up. But then they can also say, you know what, we're not exactly going to open up all the asylum stuff the way it was. By no means are Democrats going to go back to the immigration stuff they used to support. And in that way, Trump has perhaps enabled them to be able to pick and choose a little bit. And look, we're seeing what happens when they talk about ICE going into schools, when they talk about Alligator Alcatraz. He said it's literally hitting close to home. I talked to an immigration activist in Florida. There's Cubans, there's other South Florida Latinos, Venezuelans, Colombians who thought that, like, they were on Team Trump, but now they realize Team Trump's not on their side. And so, like, that stuff hitting close to home. I go to Chicago, I go to Belmont, Craig, and I go to an 80% Latino area. There's a community enrichment program for parents where they signed up. But guess what? When they're threatening that ICE is coming, none of the parents are showing up to these programs, mental health programs and programs to help them with their children. So this is what happens when communities are under siege in this way. And that's definitely now, this opportunity that has been flipped for Democrats on immigration.

Sarah Longwell (24:58)

I think, yeah, I have two thoughts in response to that. The first one is I do think that if I were Democrats, I would start everything from a, let's just whiteboard this thing. Let's start over. Let's clear off the desk. Like, if Trump's going to burn it all down, that means we get a chance to sort of build from scratch in a place that is more meets this moment and where Americans are. And so I do think that where we feel like we've gone too far in some places where they'll think Trump has been too extreme. And I feel like Democrats really have an opportunity to stake out sort of a broad, compassionate middle, which is where I think a lot of Americans are. The second thing is this close to home element. I just know this, listening to voters, that when there are personal consequences, people feel differently. But I guess I want to ask you as like a stand in for the audience for a question that I get all the time, which is, how could they not know that Trump was going to behave like this and that Trump was going to come for them? Like, what about poisoning the blood of our country? Is it just that these voters don't hear that stuff as much? Like, why did Hispanic voters not think this was where it was going?

Adrian Carrasquillo (26:08)

Such a good question. Honestly, I, a lot of times think about, and this is really simplistic, but like, we have two parties. So if you have decided that Kamala or Democrats or Biden are too extreme, I mean, I think one of the women in the focus group literally said, yeah, I didn't really like anything that he did in his first term, but I figured give him another chance. Why? What are you talking about? You know, and so people are making these choices and now they're confronted with this reality, they're being smacked in the face. You know, I know that there's a strain of a lot of Americans who, like, don't really want to hear, oh, other countries don't like us. But there's also people that are like, we've been respected. We've been this beacon. And this guy's saying, like, he goes to Colombia and his wife's Colombian and Columbus are like, people don't like America. What is our posture? What have we done? Well, of course that would be the case, like in the way that one guy said that we're treating people sort of like subhuman from other countries. Other countries are watching what we're doing. So that does fold in. And look, I think it's always still the economy, number one. But how we got here, how Hispanics believe that, I think they just thought better of these two evils, which I think someone said in the focus group, actually. And they just wanted the economy to improve and they really Thought he was going to do that. And now they found again that, you know, it's Lucy with the football kind of thing.

Sarah Longwell (27:21)

Yeah. I mean, it's very frustrating for listeners, I think, to sort of get their hands around this. But I got to tell you, I always say this. If we had a drinking game where we had to drink every time somebody in a focus group said the lesser of two evils, we'd be dead. Because people are making these choices based on a bunch of inputs where they sort of think both sides are bad. But maybe Trump, because he's a business guy, will at least do something about the economy. It's not simplistic. That is how a lot of people think. But I do want to ask you one sensitive question. There is this sort of way about talking about Kamala that's like, well, obviously, I wasn't going to vote for Kamala. And I was wondering, you know, obviously after the election, there was just a real sense from people about like, this is because she's black. It's because she's a woman. There's misogyny, there's racism. Was there something specifically, do you think, about Kamala being a black woman that led so many people to vote in that, like, narrow margin where they're like, oh, I have to choose between these two things. I don't like. Do you think racism and sexism played a role in that?

Adrian Carrasquillo (28:24)

I've been covering this for over a decade, and I know that there was a pollster that got in trouble because years ago, they said, like, oh, Latinos might not vote for a black guy in Obama. And then a bunch of people pushed back and were like, what are you talking about? And then he got some of the highest support. I'm sure you have things that you say publicly and privately, and maybe some you don't want to say, like on a focus group thing. One that I think is just true is like, we are a pretty racist nation and pretty sexist, but we're more sexist. A woman comes around, and I think a lot of voters are just sort of like, I don't know, like, oh, I like this guy. He's strong. I did one of the first stories ever on Hispanic Trump supporters in, like, 2016, and they were literally like, he's a strong man. And, you know, which also has the whole dictator strongman connotation. And obviously a lot of people were not feeling Hillary. So there's always these excuses for women candidates. And so I think that that does make you wonder. I just remember hearing when she was getting Chosen of folks being like, oh, well, of course Biden's got to go. This guy's got a fork sticking out of his back. But then they were like, oh, what? She doesn't stand for anything. I think there's people who agree that like good faith think that that's the case. But then also people who are just like, see her and just see her as like empty suit or whatever the case may be. So I don't know. I mean, I haven't seen that in ways that are like sort of measurable polling. But I did see Hispanic man and I did see conversations around Clinton years ago that were like, oh, is, are we going to start a war every 30 days because of, you know, like a period like stuff that's just insane.

Sarah Longwell (29:50)

Oh, yeah, you know, we get some of that in the groups. Like, but what happens when she's on the rag, guys? It's tough, tough out there.

Adrian Carrasquillo (29:57)

Yeah.

Sarah Longwell (29:59)

I want to say a quick word about the Bulwarks upcoming live shows. You all know one of my favorite parts of this thing we've built here is that it is a real community. And when you come to these shows, you get to see what that community looks like and you guys look great. We've got a live show in Toronto later this month, but unfortunately that's already sold out. We've added another kind of meet and greet session. We did not realize how big the Canadian audience was going to be, but we also have an upcoming show in America. Join Tim, JBL and me on October 8th in D.C. to show that you're not afraid to show your face in our nation's occupied capital. As JBL has been saying, one of the best ways we can combat the darkness is to experience it together. So I hope you will come join us. And if you really want to get all the time with us that you can, VIP tickets are included in the sale that will give you an earlier entry to the show to sit in the audience for an intimate Q and a with jbl, Tim and myself where you can flip the script and ask us your questions. Check out thebullwork.com events for more information and we will see you there. I hope you. I hope come hang out. Okay. Speaking of tough out there, I want to get to the Hispanic Trump voters takes on both the National Guard presence in Washington D.C. where I live. Where are you?

Adrian Carrasquillo (31:15)

I'm in Brooklyn and New York, so I don't know if the National Guard is coming. I guess we'll see.

Sarah Longwell (31:19)

Yeah, I guess we will see. But we do think it's going to spread. It's not coming for you as soon as it's coming, likely for Chicago, Memphis, some of the places that Donald Trump has been talking about. So we heard some mixed views from the group on this. Let's listen. Only if it's approved by the state, slash city. You know, this whole thing with la, that kind of triggered it, right? It started from that. What was that? A month ago, I think, or two months ago. But, you know, neither the governor, nor the Newsom nor Bass knew anything about it. So that kind of just shocked everyone. So, you know, the crime has gotten out of hand in some of these cities. Homelessness, you know, the looting, all that breaking and entering kind of stuff to all these stores. You gotta, you know, just kind of deal with that somehow. Right. I just feel like it's government overreach. You know, it's taking, like Beth said, it's really taking power away from the state, the city and going immediately to the federal government, taking action on a very small area. And I also feel that it's a very temporary solution rather than, you know, funding the police there or making better systems that they can work on in the long term. You're just going to send the National Guard, at some point, they're going to leave and it's going to go back to the way it was. If nothing's actually getting fits, everything feels temporary instead of actually, you know, putting a solution in place. I think, honestly, the only good thing that came out of it was, and I think it was kind of overkill, like they were kind of cleaning up the garbage. They're like literally garbage on the floor. Not like people. The National Guards pick up garbage.

Adrian Carrasquillo (32:51)

I guess that's a very effective way. I guess you could say we're getting rid of trash.

Sarah Longwell (32:55)

It's the only silver lining I see in this. It just, I don't know. Donald Trump started enforcing a police state in dc, which I think is very excessive.

Adrian Carrasquillo (33:03)

You know, I think is labeling it.

Sarah Longwell (33:04)

As, like, for safety, but I just.

Adrian Carrasquillo (33:06)

Don'T see it as safety.

Sarah Longwell (33:07)

Like, it's like a power trip, it seems, I guess it's overkill and it's very hypocritical because he likes to critique a lot of countries and their leaders. But what you're doing right now, it's oddly similar to other dictators and it's a little too similar. And yet you're kind of critiquing them all the time. I don't know. It's excessive.

Adrian Carrasquillo (33:23)

It's not really necessary.

Sarah Longwell (33:25)

I do agree it can be an overstep, but like in my state in Colorado and a few hours away from me is Aurora, and they have this big block of apartment buildings that have been completely overrun with the Venezuelan gangs. And this is real time. This just happened last week or even a couple days ago. I, I don't remember the exact day, but they had all the kids leaving the apartments because the gang members were walking up and down the hallways with guns and they were harassing everyone who lives there. And the cops are trying, but there's just not enough that they can do. So they do need that help. And Trump did say something about an emergency alert or something, but they didn't send in the Guard yet or anything like that. But in that instant, I think they fixed should and that they shouldn't be waiting even longer. Okay, a lot of mixed opinions in there. So you've been in Chicago the last few days as the Trump administration has flirted with the sort of DC style deployment of the National Guard and as ICE has stepped up enforcement and detention operations in the city. One through line in your reporting is the culture of fear that ICE has created in a lot of the country. How are folks in Chicago dealing with that and sort of like preparing for what might be coming?

Adrian Carrasquillo (34:49)

When I knew I was going to go, even before I went, I started reporting and talking to folks and we actually had an exclusive story on the activists, the organizers in D.C. and in LA and in New York, they did this big sort of unreported call where they talked to Chicago leaders and you know, from the teachers union president to just like those organizers that are really tapped in and they were explaining to them how to prepare for this la, you know, in some ways got caught flat footed. And then you had this stuff going on with the LAPD and different things. But now it's very clear that Trump's playbook here, and we know this guy has one playbook for many different things. And here it's like, provoke a blue city, right? And you do this ICE stuff and you have a city like LA or Chicago standing up for their neighbors and being like, these are workers. What are you doing? Provoke some sort of violent altercation. Then you can say, well, I got to sit in the National Guard. I'm the president, I believe in law and order. And so I think what was really well done here was just like they consistently talked behind the scenes about not letting stuff turn violent and making sure that if there are protests, being super careful, this stuff matters, right? Because we know that these are powder keg situations and then suddenly something can get out of control. So first they were just like really prepared. And people told me that L. A probably has the most immigrant, like infrastructure, immigrant rights stuff for years. But they were like, Chicago is probably second or third one of the groups in there. Illinois Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition. They were started after Reagan's, you know, 1986 law. So they've been around Chicago for a long time. They started a hotline for immigrants to call in with any type of issue. Now it's ICE sightings, but normally it could be any type of issue. So I mean, these groups have been around in the community and then sort of like where the culture of fear came from. It's just people know that there are sightings and people have been getting picked up. A beloved flower guy was picked up on Sunday, deported by Tuesday. And there's another guy that I heard about who has a son with a developmental disability and he was deported and he's the breadwinner and he's been here for extreme. A long time of years. I believe it was 22 years. So that kind of stuff where, you know, people told me if he can't do these massive raids which were done maybe at the end of the bush years, beginning of the Obama years, he can just sort of ramp up this fear. And that's been a big part of it.

Sarah Longwell (37:05)

Hey, just as a quick aside. Well, it's germane, but it is not quite in the realm of the focus groups. It's more a point of personal interest. I sometimes think about these people who have been here for 22 years and they get deported. Where do they go? Like their whole life is here. What happens? They get off the plane and then what? They don't have a house. Like, I know this is a big question, but I guess it's so easy to be like, well, they're deported. It's one thing when you're like a bunch of people came here illegally. We picked them up at the border and we send them back because they were in the middle of an active life. Wherever they were, maybe it was bad, maybe they're fleeing something terrible. People have been here for 22 years. Like, what do they do?

Adrian Carrasquillo (37:47)

Yeah, if I was sent to Mexico tomorrow, I'd be pretty like horrified about how to fix my life. I mean, you know, it's an interesting question because we wrote about a TikTok chef that he decided to self deport. So he knew he was going to Oaxaca. He was able to fly out, he was able to plan stuff. What happens if you're just picked up one day doing your job and now suddenly you're in this unfamiliar country, I think there are probably groups that can help. But how do you even get connected? I've written about guys that got sent to Venezuela or Colombia and they, you know, they don't have work authorization papers, they don't have the proper licenses to get a motorcycle to go find a job. You know, just the stuff that's like, we don't even think about it. So, yeah, I think it just completely upends and destroys their life, notwithstanding the fact that their family is now living in the US and they don't have access to them.

Sarah Longwell (38:35)

I mean, just like 22 years, like, you don't know you're here now. Like, you've been here a long time. Everything's here. You won't see the engineer that slams the Nissan Rogue's door 13,920 times, or the corrosive chamber that simulates 15 years of life in five months, or the Rogue heat baked for over 300 combined hours. What you will see is a vehicle that can take punch after punch and keep rolling. Nissan number one in new vehicle quality among mainstream brands by JD Power. We put it through the worst, so you get its best. For J.D. power 2025 U.S. initial Quality Study Award information, visit J.D. power.com awards awards space on 2025 model year. Your newer models may be shown. Shop the Sherwin Williams super sale and get 40% off paints and stains September 19th through the 24th with prices starting at 29.39. It's the perfect time to transform your space with color. Whether you're looking to revamp your interior or exterior, we have you covered with bold hues, soothing neutrals, and everything in between. Visit your neighborhood Sherwin Williams store or shop the sale online. Delivery available on qualifying orders. Click the banner to learn more. Retail sales only some exclusions apply. See Store for details. So we did other focus groups over the summer with 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of him but who weren't all Hispanic. And that led to a very telling mix of views on the immigration issue. For most, but not all of the people you're about to hear, the stakes felt less personal than from some of the Hispanics that we've heard from. Let's listen to Please target people entering the country now and criminals who are here now illegally. I feel like that should be our first point of action, not going into elementary schools and picking kids out of seats.

Adrian Carrasquillo (40:21)

I voted for Trump for a singular reason. Which was immigration. I'm pleased with how things are going regarding that, but I am pleased with the fact that if he says he's going to do something, it's done, whether you like it or not. He stands on business, and that's something that we need. Not sad about the raids. It has happened here in Brooklyn. The Haitians fought back, and no one was detained. So there's lessons to be learned.

Sarah Longwell (40:53)

How you choose to apply them is.

Adrian Carrasquillo (40:55)

Up to the individual. But I'm very pleased with how Trump is governing thus far.

Sarah Longwell (41:01)

I was kind of hoping for, like, what everyone had said, like, illegal immigrant criminals would be targeted. But now there's a bunch of human rights concerns surrounding it as well. And again, a lot of that's probably media coverage, too. I'm not there. I don't know how it's actually being handled, which I feel like is another massive problem right now. You have to dig for hours to actually find sources that are credible on what's actually happening. If you don't live in places like California, where you can see it. I live in Kansas, so nothing politically charged happens in Topeka. I have to get all my stuff from the news. I definitely disagree with, like, inhumane treatment of people. I take a lot of issue with what I hear about the conditions and a lot of the, like, essentially, like, camps, the internment camps that people are being held in. That bothers me a lot. And I am a fan of. I'm a lawyer, so, I mean, I like, like legal process for people. But just what's been going on for, like, the past at least four years during Biden's administration, with granting automatic asylum to people and letting them stay here and wait it out was catastrophically bad. And not just from an economic standpoint, but also from a cultural standpoint. I mean, I think that a certain amount of immigration is good for society. When there's so much immigration that it starts to. To change, like, the cultural fabric and the social fabric. That has real ramifications for, like, what I consider the American identity. The people in California that are here.

Adrian Carrasquillo (42:35)

Illegally, let's say they walked across the border, came in a television, whatever it was they got here, that have been.

Sarah Longwell (42:43)

Here for decades, they do not believe.

Adrian Carrasquillo (42:46)

That they're here illegally. They have a driver's license, they have a Social Security card. They. They've worked here, they pay taxes, they.

Sarah Longwell (42:55)

Believe they are here legally. So to come in and try to.

Adrian Carrasquillo (42:59)

Swoop them up, they've been working, they've been paying taxes. For instance, we had a nanny for 16 years. Taxes paid, had her driver's license, drove around. They will come in and pick her.

Sarah Longwell (43:14)

Up, but she doesn't believe she's here illegally.

Adrian Carrasquillo (43:17)

And tons of her family. And then the other thing is your constitutional rights, having to provide your identification when asked or when demanded, when you're.

Sarah Longwell (43:27)

Not even a suspect in a crime, you've shown no criminal activity, you're washing a car and they roll up, put.

Adrian Carrasquillo (43:36)

You against the car, and demand you identify yourself.

Sarah Longwell (43:41)

If these roles were reversed and it was happening to all the white people, there'd be hell to pay.

Adrian Carrasquillo (43:49)

Like, just no reason.

Sarah Longwell (43:50)

You're just walking down the street and, hey, you're white. Let me see your id. Well, what have I done? I haven't done anything. Give me your id. It's not legal. So. And people say, well, if you haven't.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:01)

Done anything wrong, you got nothing to worry about.

Sarah Longwell (44:03)

Sure, sure, you know, I pay my taxes, but do I want the IRS.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:07)

Breathing over my neck?

Sarah Longwell (44:08)

Like, no, I don't.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:10)

So, you know, that's my opinion. In terms of what's going on with ice, it's reprehensible. I'm here in Southern California.

Sarah Longwell (44:21)

I see it.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:22)

You know, my wife's Mexican, my kids are Mexican or half. And I have family members, hundreds of them, that are Mexican, and they're scared. They're.

Sarah Longwell (44:32)

They're scared to leave their house.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:33)

And I watched a nice raid at the bubble bath car wash, and it was not a raid.

Sarah Longwell (44:38)

It. It was a complete takeover.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:41)

Going after people that were legal citizens. Just because you work at a car.

Sarah Longwell (44:46)

Wash and you're a Mexican doesn't mean.

Adrian Carrasquillo (44:47)

You'Re here illegally and taking people's IDs, lining them up against a wall and taking their IDs and forcing them to show them. Is my wife next?

Sarah Longwell (44:59)

Because she's Hispanic, you know, so right.

Adrian Carrasquillo (45:03)

Now, that's, that's a huge concern for me is someone had mentioned human rights. You know, our constitutional rights, I believe, are being violated. When I say our, I don't have any problem because I'm a, you know, older white Republican walking down the street like, there's, there's just no issue with that.

Sarah Longwell (45:20)

So. But as far as my family, yeah, that's a, it's, it's a very big concern. Just one note on that last guy. He is still pretty conservative, and we asked that group how they'd vote if we reran the 2024 election, and that guy said he would still vote for Trump.

Adrian Carrasquillo (45:39)

So my wife might be next, but listen, I'd still vote for Trump. Yeah.

Sarah Longwell (45:43)

I mean, like, there's a whole genre of news stories at this point, and JBL really loves to bring them up on the next level. He talks about them all the time of people who voted for Trump and. And then have had friends and loved ones deported. Like, in Hazelton, Pennsylvania, with that. It was like somebody that was just, like, very beloved in the community, and they were all like, but not her. And so is the center of this debate going to shift eventually from the state of the border, which is kind of where it's been? Right. Like, you just. We talked about the pendulum, and I think you're right. Like, as conversations shift, the pain points shift. And so the pain point in the 2024 election was the border was too open. But, like, does it shift again to sort of the inhumanity of what's happening? Or is it that the Overton window has moved such that you cannot start a conversation about immigration without first saying, like, we have to solve the crisis. The border. Border's got to be closed.

Adrian Carrasquillo (46:41)

I would love to zoom in on one of the women said. She said, you know, immigration changing the cultural and social fabric of the nation. Right. Because I think that there's places. I did a story once about, like, Wichita, Kansas, like, basically their Hispanic community had doubled. And so when that happens quickly, people are like, what the hell's going on here? This is my neighborhood. It used to be different. One of the reasons SB 1070 didn't work in Arizona was because the Supreme Court had issues with it and there was rampant racial profiling, which now you're.

Sarah Longwell (47:12)

Gonna have to explain what that is.

Adrian Carrasquillo (47:13)

SB yeah, SB 1070 was the, you know, very. People often say draconian immigration law. Show me your papers law. Hey, you're brown. Like, let me, Let me see what's up with your immigration status? And a huge part of that was we don't racial profile in the US because now you're grabbing US citizens, etc. But the Supreme Court just said that racial profiling is cool. I mean, this just happened last week, you know, in relation to this LA case. So now you can do racial profiling. And that also is the social and cultural fabric of the nation. Like, are people going to be uncomfortable with that? Are people going to say, like, hey, that's not okay. This guy just put it so perfectly when he's talking about, like, you know, if they were all white people getting grabbed in the street, show me your id. You'd be like, whoa, wait a second. What is going on? So, I mean, I think that's the like, ultimate question, which is, is this uncomfortable enough? And I think what we've honestly seen in focus groups, too, is like, the economy is number one and immigration is this great hammer, like a second thing. And maybe the ads will not be about immigration. They will be about this guy screwed the economy. But then it's that next thing because a lot of the Hispanic voters also say the economy's a mess, tariffs are not helping. And on top of that, I work in construction and he's taking people and this is not cool. It's the second, like, strong buttressing issue that adds to, like, what the hell is this guy doing? So, you know, maybe not the number one issue, but we've seen that happen. By the way, in 2020, when Biden won Arizona, that was because immigration was no longer a topic, like three or four issue. It always is in Arizona. I remember talking to Chuck Coughlin, one of the pollsters out in Arizona, former Republican, being like, when immigration is not a top issue, Biden has a chance. And then Biden won Arizona. So that's how our politics can shift from election to election.

Sarah Longwell (48:57)

Yeah, it was about COVID And because we'd shut the border down because of COVID Yeah, it was much less of an issue. You won't see the engineer that slams the Nissan Rogue's door 13,920 times, or the corrosive chamber that simulates 15 years of life in five months, or the Rogue heat baked for over 300 combined hours. What you will see is a vehicle that can take punch after punch and keep rolling. Nissan number one in new vehicle quality among mainstream brands by JD Power. We put it through the worst, so you get its best. For J.D. power 2025 U.S. initial Quality Study Award information, visit JDPower.com Awards Awards based on the 2025 model year and your newer models may be shown. Shop the Sherwin Williams super sale and get 40% off paints and stains. September 19th, 19th through the 24th, with prices starting at $29.39. It's the perfect time to transform your space with color. Whether you're looking to revamp your interior or exterior, we have you covered with bold hues, soothing neutrals, and everything in between. Visit your neighborhood Sherwin Williams store or shop the sale online. Delivery available on qualifying orders. Click the banner to learn more. Retail sales only some exclusions apply. See store for details. So let me ask you the hardest question, which is if somebody asked me how would I solve the immigration issue in this country, I would try to, because this is just me. Much to everybody's annoyances, I would try to strike this balance. It's funny, when people say American culture, it changes with immigration. I'm like, immigration is American culture. I am very pro immigration. Because even when you get stupid things like Ash Patel saying, I'll see you in Valhalla or whatever, to Charlie Kirk, when I'm like, the Indian FBI director talking about the white Christian, like, I don't know, I'm like, this is America. Like, we are a weird hodgepodge of every place else, of everyone who came here or was brought here. And, like, we put ourselves together in this great stew, and we try to sort it out. And so I think that we should still retain a lot of pride in the fact that people want to come here, that we were a big and rich and awesome tapestry, and that's why people want to come here, while also saying, you have to have borders, they have to be secure, because borders are. They are a national security issue. They are about fentanyl and drugs. People are always like, why do people in Ohio care? They don't have lots of immigrants in Ohio. And I'm like, people think that because drugs are getting across the border and they have a ton of fentanyl in Ohio, first of all, they have more Hispanics than you think they do. But more importantly, they see it as a drug issue. And Republicans are very good at, I think, fusing together crime, terrorism, immigration, and turning them all kind of into one big issue that gets people like, I'm afraid of this thing. And so I do think you have to say, look, we're going to secure the border. We're going to figure out how to get people here legally faster, and we're going to have more immigration courts so that we know who's in the country. Because that's a thing that you hear a lot. People want to know the American government knows who's here so that they feel safer. And I think this is sort of like abortion. It's like this incredibly potent issue that actually very much does have a wide, broad middle that you could appeal to if you could ever get out of the primaries, like the super hard, hardcore things. Like, you've done a lot more reporting on this than I have. How would you solve immigration as an issue? Or how would you construct it for the highest, best use of America?

Adrian Carrasquillo (52:31)

I wanted to start talking about common sense immigration and start going into all these industries. Honestly, one of the things that I think Stephen Miller is doing and this administration is doing is, like, kneecapping and destroying stuff so effectively that if a new administration comes in, they're firing all these immigration judges. So it's like, all right, well, I guess when I get in, I got to get a bunch of new immigration judges just to even make these trains run slightly late instead of not run at all. So, okay, if we put that to the side, which I do think is an issue, the way that they have, like, systematically destroyed a lot of legal immigration stuff. A lot of programs, refugee programs, we tell people they can come here legally, and now we're taking away that status and making them here illegally. So those are, like, really robust issues. So I don't want to just say, like, they don't matter, but, I mean, I don't know if a Democrat can effectively message. Because you made a great point, which is that Republicans are good at saying, like, like, they're taking your job or, you know, it's either them or you and that kind of stuff. Can Democrats effectively message common sense stuff? Like, there's a story just out about red state farmers being like, what the hell are you doing? We need workers. We need people so upset with the administration. So from farming, meat packing, and just a lot of these industries where we have immigrants that do this, labor that a lot of Americans don't want to do, this is not a new thing. You can look up stories of these very stringent Alabama law that followed the Arizona law, and I wrote about that earlier this year for the Bulwark, and they tried to get Americans of different races, white and black people, hey, we're going to pay you to come do this. And fruits and vegetables are dying on the vine because no one wants to do these jobs because they're terrible. So if there can be some common sense on some of the industries and some of the business side of this, then you can also start getting to those conversations about, like, I don't know, it seems easy to us to say streamline and make it easier for people to come here. Guess all that stuff is very hard. I know people get upset when they feel that the line is being cut, but now that immigration has been strongly cut at the border, maybe you can start these conversations on common sense stuff. You have a guy like Ruben Gallego. I bring him up because he has openly tried to put out an immigration plan. A lot of other Democrats are sort of waiting to see where chips fall. And I asked him, it sounds like what you're saying is a worker first plan. And he was like, yes. So I think Democrats can have these conversations because now they're not going to be Accused of open border because the border has been so shut down. In many ways, they can say common sense stuff like a worker first immigration plan probably sounds good to a lot of people and just sort of start there.

Sarah Longwell (55:03)

Yeah, there's got to be a way for people to come here legally that is less of a Rube Goldberg insanity. So that this idea that I think most Americans sort of agree with, which is we want people to come. We just want them to come the right way. This is always, to me, one of the big issues is that if you were born here, you've never had any exposure to the American immigration system. And so as a result, you think, like, why would you cross the border instead of just coming legally? Like, you can't do that. And I basically agree, except I also just want people to realize that the process to become an American citizen, it gets so difficult now to go through the immigration process legally that people would rather risk their lives crossing the border than try to do it that way. And, like, we have to find a rational place where people want to come here to work and to live and to experience what was the greatness of America. What could be, again, the greatness of America. There's a way to do it. It's a little late in the pod for me to, like, push back on something you said, but I guess I agree that the economic argument is an important one. And these. You need these business leaders making this. But I also, I guess I just don't want it to be like, boy, we need to, like, exploit immigrant labor to do the shittiest jobs that we can't find any fat, rich Americans to do. Like, I guess they're find that Just a slightly more unsatisfying answer.

Adrian Carrasquillo (56:35)

Yeah, yeah, no, look, I literally said this on a conversation. I forgot which. Which journalist I was having this substack chat with. But there's a lot of this feeling in the immigrant and Latino communities about, like, they want our labor, but they don't want us. They want our food, you know, or our music, but they don't want us. And so I think there's like, a lot of people that. That still can agree that we are a nation of immigrants and that it makes us better. And, you know, there's. The traditional immigration coalition was always like, also faith and law enforcement. So a lot of faith leaders that are just really uncomfortable and not okay with what's going on and are fighting back in their own ways. And I think that that can bubble. Right? So. But yeah, you're right. It's huge, Huge conversation.

Sarah Longwell (57:19)

Adrian Carrasquillo, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to the Bulwark on YouTube, and become a Bulwark plus member at the Bulwark.com so you can get more of Adrian's excellent reporting. See you guys soon. If you've been thinking about getting serious with your money, like actually serious, now's the time.

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