S6 Ep41: Greg Bluestein: Georgia's Root Canal Primary

Summary

The Focus Group Podcast

Episode: S6 Ep41: Greg Bluestein: Georgia's Root Canal Primary
Date: May 16, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (The Bulwark)
Guest: Greg Bluestein (Politically Georgia Podcast, author)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into Georgia's 2026 election primaries, described as a “root canal” for voters of both parties due to crowded candidate fields, relentless negative ads, and widespread voter fatigue. Host Sarah Longwell and Georgia political expert Greg Bluestein dissect the context, candidates, and mood of Georgia’s voters using illuminating focus group excerpts. Through these real voter testimonies, they explore the disconnect between political insiders and average Georgians, the "swing state" transformation, the Senate and governor’s races on both sides of the aisle, and the broader implications for American politics.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Georgia's Swing State Evolution & Voter Fatigue

• Georgia's Transformation: Historically uncompetitive, Georgia is now a national battleground thanks to shifting suburban demographics and a surge in intensely fought races since Trump’s 2016 rise.
  • “We were used to being ignored… and the last, I don’t know, eight years, kind of coinciding with Donald Trump’s rise, maybe 2016 and on, Georgia’s become this competitive battleground.”
    —Greg Bluestein [03:23]
• Exhausted Electorate: Voters are burned out by non-stop political ads and the feeling of never-ending campaigns.
  • “If you think America as a whole is worn out on politics, man, Georgians are doubly worn out.”
    —Sarah Longwell [01:14]

2. The Reality of Georgia Swing Voters

• Swing Voters Matter: Despite cynicism, Georgia's split-ticket voters (e.g., those who voted Kemp for Governor and Warnock for Senate) often decide statewide outcomes.
• Candidate Strategy: Success hinges on appealing to persuadable, metro Atlanta suburbanites, not just the party’s base.
  • “That’s the reason why you have a Governor Kemp right now and a Senator Warnock. Without those swing voters, there wouldn’t be any of either of those politicians…”
    —Greg Bluestein [05:49]

3. Republican Senate Primary: Lackluster Choices & Fatalism

• Undecided, Unenthused GOP Voters: Focus group participants express disappointment and fatalism about their party’s Senate field (Mike Collins, Buddy Carter, Derek Dooley) and skepticism about defeating incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff.
  • “It’s a sorry state of affairs when… Ossoff is, is solidly in control and we can’t muster a candidate… the two congressmen are not shining lights or a total outsider…”
    —Focus Group Participant [10:00]
• Ossoff's Unexpected Strength: Despite disliking him, many acknowledge Ossoff’s strong constituent service and incumbent advantage.
• Kemp’s Absence: Many believe if Governor Brian Kemp had run, the race would look different. His non-candidacy left a vacuum no other candidate has filled.
  • “If Governor Kemp was in this race, I bet… that focus group would sound very different.”
    —Greg Bluestein [13:34]

4. Republican Gubernatorial Primary: Negative Ads, Mistrust, MAGA vs. Old Guard

• Ads and Mudslinging: Voters are fatigued and confused by constant negative advertising, making it hard to discern actual policy differences or believe any promises.
  • “If you go by commercials, we ain’t gonna pick anybody.”
    —Focus Group Participant [17:44]
  • “I don’t know who to believe anymore, to be honest with you.”
    —Focus Group Participant [18:52]
• Bert Jones vs. Rick Jackson:
  • Bert Jones: Trump-endorsed, former “fake elector,” perceived as the establishment/MAGA pick.
  • Rick Jackson: Billionaire outsider, spending upwards of $80 million, running as a self-made, tough-talking alternative.
• Central Issues: Tax cuts (especially eliminating income tax), property tax reduction, and affordability dominate voter concerns.
  • “Republicans think one of the issues—because they’re all backing it—is cutting more taxes.”
    —Greg Bluestein [30:13]
  • “There’s not a single group that I do right now that doesn’t start out with… ‘Everything’s too expensive. I can’t afford this…’”
    —Sarah Longwell [31:05]

5. The MAGA/Anti-Trump Divide

• Hardline MAGA Faction: GOP voters deeply split over figures like Brad Raffensperger (vilified for refusing to back Trump’s election fraud claims) and skeptical of mainstream establishment ties.
  • “There’s certainly a big giant MAGA core of Republicans who do think something went wrong in 2020, even though there’s no evidence…”
    —Greg Bluestein [21:39]
• Trump’s Endorsement Dynamics: Trump remains a kingmaker, but his support is not a guaranteed ticket—Jackson competes for his favor; Jones claims Trump loyalty.

6. Democratic Gubernatorial Primary: A Search for Electability

• Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Lead (but Lukewarm): The former Atlanta Mayor is favored to win, but voters express doubts about her ability to win statewide and describe her candidacy as uninspiring (“meh”).
  • “I see her as a good candidate, but just not as one that would be able to appeal to the masses… I’m a little uneasy about it.”
    —Focus Group Participant [44:06]
• Comparison to Kamala Harris: Focus group participants note a perceived gendered disadvantage among black male voters and skepticism of her national profile.
• Challengers:
  • Jason Estevez (progressive legislator),
  • Michael Thurmond (former DeKalb CEO), and
  • Jeff Duncan (ex-Republican, Never Trumper, now running as a Democrat).
• Electability vs. Ideology: Some Democrats are tempted by Duncan’s crossover appeal for statewide races but remain wary of his Republican history and sincerity.
  • “There are a lot of Democrats who want those types of folks to start voting with them, but don’t believe that they should be the ones holding the party banner.”
    —Greg Bluestein [54:00]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Voter Exhaustion:
  “In a poll, you cannot hear voters do these dejected sighs. The like. I mean, Ossoff is just gonna…”
  —Sarah Longwell [01:00, 11:31]

• On Rick Jackson’s Impact:
  “To say that he upended the Georgia Republican race for governor is like an understatement… he just completely, unbelievably overhauled it.”
  —Greg Bluestein [26:37]

• On the Culture Wars and Old Guard:
  “Maybe Georgia’s the last place where like the old school Republicans still… believe in that old rock group, conservative stuff.”
  —Sarah Longwell [32:18]

• On Never Trumpers Running for Office:
  “There’s a lot of Democrats who want those never Trumpers to vote for Democrats, but not to run for office, I guess.”
  —Greg Bluestein [53:09]

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Notable Focus Group Exchanges (Timestamps)

• [09:17] Senate Primary: Voters sound resigned, struggle to get excited about GOP candidates, many default to anti-Ossoff positions.
• [17:15] Governor’s Race: Overwhelmed by negative ads, multiple are undecided, “I just don’t know who to believe anymore.”
• [24:20] Jackson Curiosity: Rick Jackson’s wealth didn’t turn off voters as expected—outside status intrigues them.
• [36:04] Trump Endorsement: Some see Trump’s support for Bert Jones as reason enough to vote for him, others are skeptical of Jones’ independence.
• [43:25] Democratic Primary – Keisha Lance Bottoms: Concerns about her electability, past mayoral record, and Atlanta reputation.
• [50:18] On Jeff Duncan: Some Democratic voters appreciate his anti-Trump stance, others worry about his Republican roots (“Trojan horse”).
• [54:00] Never Trumpers as Democrats: “They want those types of folks to start voting with them, but don’t believe that they should be the ones holding the party banner.”

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Key Segment Timestamps

• Intro, Georgia’s Political Landscape: [01:00]–[05:46]
• Republican Senate Primary Focus Groups: [09:08]–[11:28], [12:52]–[16:49]
• Republican Governor’s Race – Voter Mistrust: [17:00]–[20:39], [23:39]–[26:28]
• Bert Jones vs. Rick Jackson & GOP Infighting: [36:04]–[41:50]
• Democratic Governor’s Race – Keisha Lance Bottoms: [43:25]–[49:43]
• Jeff Duncan as a Democrat: [50:18]–[54:00]

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Conclusion

This episode captures the malaise and confusion in Georgia’s crucial primaries—voters: exhausted, skeptical, sometimes amused, but always aware that their choices matter in the national picture. Insights from focus groups reveal a disconnect between political operatives and regular folks, a complex Georgia electorate, and the tangled fate of candidates contending with Trump’s shadow, shifting party coalitions, and a fundamentally “worn out” political culture.

For ongoing Georgia political analysis, follow Greg Bluestein’s Politically Georgia podcast and social feeds.

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Listen to The Focus Group Podcast for more episodes and real voter voices at: https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast/focus-group/

Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

I want to tell you why I love focus groups. Because in a poll, you cannot hear voters do these dejected sighs. The like. I mean, Ossoff is just gonna like, hello everyone, and welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we are going to Georgia, which has a bunch of bunch of fun and interesting primaries coming up on Tuesday, May 19, which is very soon. Now, look, I say fun and interesting, but I think this, this episode is going to be a really funny window into the disconnect between the kinds of, like, political nerds who listen to this show and how regular voters process these kinds of elections. Because there's like a really crowded Republican primary for U.S. senate there in Georgia and crowded primary fields for governor in both parties. It's a political nerd's dre. But the focus groups made it clear that these primaries felt like a root canal for Republicans and Democrats alike. Because if you think America as a whole is worn out on politics, man, Georgians are doubly worn out. The exception is my guest today. He's one of the most plugged in reporters in Georgia, Greg Bluestein, co host of the Politically Georgia Podcast and author of Flipped How Georgia Turned Purple and Broke the Monopoly on Republican Power. Greg, thanks for coming back and doing this again.

[Greg Bluestein]

I'm honored to be with you.

[Sarah Longwell]

I was telling Greg, I was like, you got a face for podcasts, man. This guy's a scribbler. Look at this. Look how handsome. All right, before we get into the show and I tease Greg Moore, go get your tickets to the Bulw works live shows next week in San Diego on May 20, in Los Angeles on May 21. I'm going to be there with Tim Miller, Sam Stein. Go to the bulwark.com events and come hang out with us.

[Greg Bluestein]

I want to come.

[Sarah Longwell]

Come. You should fly out. It'll be a good time, I guarantee it. So I want to talk about Georgia's new status as a swing state because it's making Georgia very interesting. You're like the guy, the person who knows the most about Georgia politics at a time when Georgia is one of the most important political states. And so how has Georgia's status as a swing state affected the political culture? Are people's brains just, like, fried by the constant political advertising?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yes. We were used to being ignored.

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Right.

[Greg Bluestein]

We're used to a lot of these races being over in the primaries for decades, really. And the last, I don't know, eight years, kind of coinciding with Donald Trump's rise, maybe 2016. And on Georgia's become this competitive battleground.

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Right.

[Greg Bluestein]

I view it as the premier battleground state in the nation. And Republicans and Democrats think that that status is not going away. They differ on how competitive it is. Right. Republicans still say it's a red state. Democrats are like, it might not be purple, periwinkle crimson, you know, shades of purple. But I think the biggest factor other than Donald Trump, you can track the suburbs of metro Atlanta going from Republican bastions to democratic strongholds from 2016 to right now. Right. And now they're the cornerstone of the Democratic coalition in Georgia. There's these folks, we call them the deciding factor, the deciders in Georgia, there's the few hundred thousand, maybe three or four hundred thousand voters who split their tickets, who in 2022 voted for both Brian Kemp, the Republican governor, and Rafael Warnock, the Democratic U.S. senator. But in some elections, they go all Republican, and some they're more willing to go and vote for more Democrats, and they're going to help decide this election, too.

[Sarah Longwell]

When you talk about politics publicly all the time, you put yourself in a position to be yelled at by a lot of people who do not like it. Who they just, they don't. They think your analysis is, is incorrect. And one of the things people do not like to hear is one that swing voters exist. For some reason, people sort of object to the idea that swing voters are really a thing. I, of course, believe that they are, especially in very specific places. Georgia being like swing voters in a swing state like Georgia are some of the most critical people. And so I endeavor to understand them. But there's also this sense. And so people don't like to believe that they're split ticket voters, which of course there are. Georgia is a place where they, they're really important. But there's also this debate about whether the Democratic Party, in order to win more voters, needs to be more moderate or more progressive. And I kind of hate that argument because it often flattens the conversation that is very distinct in different places. So in a place like Georgia, how do you think about swing voters and the kind of candidates that attract these swing voters? Like, what do you need to be like in Georgia to win over those complicated, swingier people?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, well, I can attest those swing voters do exist, and they're all over, all over Georgia, but they're really all over, like the metro Atlanta suburbs. And that's the reason why you have a Governor Kemp right now and a Senator Warnock. Right. Without those swing voters, there wouldn't be any of either of those politicians, or at least one of those politicians wouldn't be in office. But, you know, that debate has been raging in the Democratic Party for a long time because when Democrats held power in Georgia, and they did a, until the early 2000s, they were very conservative for the most part. There were some liberal Democrats, but, you know, there, there's this unique coalition of white, more conservative rural Democrats and, and, and black voters who tended to be a little bit more liberal, but, you know, more moderate over the years. And sometimes you'd have a more liberal candidate kind of shake things up. But the, the, the races ended in the primaries and, you know, we had name brand candidates running for governor as Democrats, running as NRA Democrats, running as, you know, focusing on middle of the road issues like education funding and, you know, important issues, but not focusing on some of the issues that are now like, in the fabric of Democratic politics. And I think that started really changing back in 2018 when Stacey Abrams ran for governor here and said, look, Democrats shouldn't run as Democrat lights. You should embrace those issues. Right. Talk about limiting gun expansions, talk about abortion rights, talk about LGBTQ rights. These are all normal things now for Democrats to talk about. But in Georgia, they really kind of were, at least for statewide candidates up until her candidacy. And so I think she helps show that there is a path. Although she, of course, did not win, but she came within a point and a half. But again, that election 2018, the real takeaway beyond that was that Democrats started making these giant inroads in the, in the Atlanta suburbs. And while she lost. Lucy McBath is a congresswoman from the north Atlanta suburbs. She won, she flipped. The same suburban district where I actually live that Jon Ossoff had lost in the special election just a few months before. So start carving out that path. And then of course in 2020 and 2021, Senators Warnock, Ossoff win those epic runoffs. Joe Biden captures Georgia for the first time since 92 by even make building a further lane in with those independent minded swing voters.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, look, we've got a jam packed show here, so we're going to get into it just because of all the races I alluded to at the top. And even if you're not following Georgia politics super closely, I still think you're going to love this episode because there are a lot of races, a bunch of things that matter that maybe you're not paying attention to, but people should be because they are going to matter. There's a lot of stuff though that to me is a signal about politics in general that I think are worth turning over. So let's start with the U.S. senate race. And I gotta tell you, I wasn't following this super closely on the Republican side. I, I will admit to a little bit of Ossoff curiosity, but I just hadn't been following the Republican side, which is different world for me these days. But okay, so you've got Derek Dooley, the former University of Tennessee head football coach. Just we love in our football coaches in the Republican Party these days. And two congressmen, Mike Collins and Buddy Carter. Okay, so most of the polling has shown Mike Collins in the lead, but he's likely to end up in a runoff with either Carter or Dooley. Does that sound right?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yep.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, the voters in our focus groups did not seem particularly jazzed about their choices or about the Republicans chances against John Ossoff. Let's listen.

[Focus Group Participant 1]

Haven't done enough research on them, but just like Osoft's just gotta go. I mean my wife's Jewish and she doesn't even like him.

[Focus Group Participant 2]

I definitely want to do more homework on my Collins and Buddy Carter. I do find with Derek Dooley, the first thing I thought was, are we really going with a UGA person again? I know they already tried that with Herschel.

[Sarah Longwell]

Not gonna work.

[Focus Group Participant 2]

You know, they're really believing that this football stuff is gonna sway people.

[Greg Bluestein]

I don't know enough about any of them, but I do know about that Ozoff dude.

[Sarah Longwell]

And yeah, I don't want to vote for him.

[Focus Group Participant 3]

You know why I'd vote for Buddy Carter? Because he looks like past Ajak.

[Focus Group Participant 4]

It's a sorry state of affairs when we feel, when basically Ossoff is, is solidly in control and we can't muster a candidate. I think of three the folks have talked about. The two congressmen are not shining lights. And so the choice is the two, two congressmen who aren't shining lights or a total outsider who, despite Kemp going with him all over the place, doesn't seem to have rallied much support or any public presence from my understanding. Basically, Collins is a crook. So that's in my circle of people. He's perceived as the ethics violation that he's being charged with around, I guess, using campaign money for personal gain and thing. He's refused to respond to the congressional investigators and so he's got a stench around him that's not going to help him be elected. And I think Buddy Carter is an okay guy, but these are two insider Congress guys. And so two insider, not particularly well known Congress guys versus Ossoff with a huge war chest, recognition and good constituent services. That's, that's a long shot. So that's why by process of elimination, I find myself saying, what the heck, Hail Mary, you know, get the outsider guy and, you know, maybe that would at least change the dynamics of the office or the dynamics of the election.

[Sarah Longwell]

All right, Greg, I want to tell you why I love focus groups.

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah.

[Sarah Longwell]

Because in a poll, you cannot hear voters do these dejected sighs. The like. I mean, Ossoff is just gonna, like. I mean, I was, I was genuinely a little surprised listening to this one. And this is why, just for the listeners, why I think this is a really important episode because it goes to the psychology of how Republicans are feeling.

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[Sarah Longwell]

Now this is specific to these races where they don't love any of these candidates. But I also think it's just part. And also they're like, I hate Ossoff, but also he's kind of good at this and, like, people seem to like him. So are people in the state, like, are Republicans just kind of giving up on this one? What's the vibe there?

[Greg Bluestein]

I mean, they're not giving up, but you can hear there's that fatalism in their voices, like, oh, this is doomed. And they're also resounding opposition to Ossoff. Right. I mean, that came through too. Even the folks who, you know, complimented him for connecting with voters and finding ways to, you know, stay on message. And all the many kudos that go Ossoff's way from those folks, they're, you know, they want him out of office, but they're worried about their chances. And partly it's because of the field. Right. If Governor Kemp was in this race, I bet this, that focus group would sound very different. But he decided not to run. And he was sort of a consensus Republican candidate who Trump was going to get behind and the party power brokers are going to get behind, and the Senate leaders of Washington were getting behind. And then out of all things, not only did he not run, but then he recruited someone who was not on anyone's list. Derek Dooley. You know, he's a famous name in Georgia. Dooley, because his, his dad was the UGA football coach. He's from Athens. He actually grew up with the governor in, in Athens, Georgia. But he's not remotely someone who is seen as a potential candidate. And he's, he's come into his own in the last year. He's been on the campaign trail non stop and he's learned a lot about being a candidate. But you can tell from those voters that most of them are still undecided. Our poll just, just a few weeks ago showed that more than half of likely Republican voters are undecided in the Senate race. So you can definitely sense that in those comments. And they don't feel like there is this great alternative to Ossoff, you know, a Kemp like alternative or even like a second tier Kemp like alternative. Mike Collins is the front runner, but there are deep worries and you can hear it from folks who worry that he'll get, he'll be clobbered among those swing voters, among those suburbanites. You know, he's like a MAGA warrior. Tough talking, brash, you know, provocative. He's all over Twitter with all these incendiary statements over his congressional career. But is that going to play well? And in. In Sandy Springs, Georgia. Right. These, these formerly Republican bastions that have now gone blue, where Republicans are going to need to make inroads. And that's the concern right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

Wait, you just said something, though, that, that caught my attention. Would Trump have endorsed Kemp if Kemp ran? Because that is because he endorsed Purdue, like his opposition last time, and he hates Kemp. I don't know if he hates Kemp, but that they have famously feuded because Kemp has been one of the few Republicans to not totally bend the knee in the way so many other people have.

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah. And their feud goes Even before that 2020 election, there was stuff about whether he read Trump in over Senator Kelly Leffler's appointment, all these other things during the pandemic. But, you know, things have settled down. There was a flame up on 2024 at the campaign trail, like near the end of the campaign. And then kind of both sides got together and said, let's call a truce. And that truce up until this taping, as far as I know, has lasted. The governor told me just a few days ago that he talks to President Trump fairly regularly. They've stayed on good accord. And, yeah, I think that. I think the White House would have gotten behind Kemp had he decided to run.

[Sarah Longwell]

Why didn't he run?

[Greg Bluestein]

He didn't want to. I mean, I think it boils down to that. He's been in public office now eight years as governor, years before that as secretary of state. Before that, he was a state senator. He's done this for a while. And I think there's a part of him who thinks he could run in 2028 for U.S. senate against Warnock. There's a part of them who might want to explore a presidential run if this was a different mood of a Republican Party. But I think there's also part of them who wants to go back to Athens and do something else.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'd be interested to see how a Kemp would play to a national audience in a post Trump. That's like an interesting experiment I would love to kick the tires on. Just out of interest. Okay, you told us who you think is the strongest candidate there. Who did you say? Collins.

[Greg Bluestein]

Well, Collins is the front runner, but Collins comes with all those. Those setbacks to be interesting to see how he tries to message to those swing voters that don't really matter as much in the Republican primary, but certainly matter in a general.

[Sarah Longwell]

So let's shift to the governor's race. I'm going to break down the key players in a moment. But first, I just want to take a listen to how worn out these Republicans also were about this race and how much trouble they were having making up their minds.

[Focus Group Participant 3]

Let's listen if anyone that's running right now is already in any type of, you know, position, you know, secretary of state, lieutenant governor, whatever. You know, you can look back and see, okay, what have they done? Being there. And then look at the other ones that, that aren't in any type of government position. And then the biggest thing is I don't listen to commercials because they're. They're just going to dog each other out. I mean, if you go by commercials, we ain't gonna pick anybody.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm undecided as well, but I don't. I don't pay attention to the ads. And I certainly. Every piece of mail that I get goes in the garbage.

[Focus Group Participant 5]

I think I know who I'm gonna vote for, and I'm sure this is the guy I'm gonna vote for. And then two days later, I think I can't vote for him based on what this guy and this guy and this guy is saying about him, which totally makes me start thinking, are those things true? I think he really does believe this, this and this. You know, it's all the social media stuff that just pushes you over the edge. And you want to really believe things about one candidate that's going to really do things about your state taxes, but then someone else tells you, no, that isn't true. That isn't what he's going to do with your state taxes. And I honestly just. I don't know who to believe anymore. One guy promises one thing and then the next guy comes up with a commercial that says, he told you this. But then like, no, here's the. He's taking all your money and says he's doing these things, but then he's done. The. The government says he's been stealing your money and taking this. And I'm like, do I trust you or don't I trust you? I just, I. I don't know who to believe anymore, to be honest with you.

[Focus Group Participant 2]

It just seems like they're all. Everything is focused on what the other person's done wrong and not so much about what they're going to do for us. I'm just so tired of. I wish they would actually stop talking about the other guy and talk about yourself and what you are going to do, because dogging the other person just doesn't. I just. I find it just so annoying that that's what we end up getting for months and months on end through political ads. It's just really frustrating. I much prefer the ones where they say, hi, I'm so and so and I'm going to do this, you know, but we have just haven't had a lot of that in our Republican candidates, you know, for governor or the two main ones.

[Sarah Longwell]

Anyway, I'm glad to hear I'm not the only one that is undecided.

[Focus Group Participant 6]

It is tough.

[Sarah Longwell]

I do, I don't like voting for

[Focus Group Participant 6]

incumbents usually because I feel like I

[Sarah Longwell]

don't like politicians that make it a career type thing.

[Focus Group Participant 7]

I've not seen hardly any ads explaining or making the pitch why I should vote for one person or another. I only have, I think I've pretty much only seen ads why someone says I shouldn't vote for somebody else. Although I will say, absolutely, I'm not voting for Office Burger. Never in a million years the way he was handling the state election with I think, the 2020 race. Because at that point it was, there's nothing to see here, there's nothing to see here, everything's fine, we did everything okay, yada yada, yada, and then we come and find out, no, there was a ton of fraud in Fulton County. There was a bunch of stuff going on that was under his purview that somehow he didn't find after several years. But a new government can come in and find it in six months. So to me, that either says he's incompetent, he's negligent, or he just doesn't know what he's doing.

[Sarah Longwell]

Ripping on my boy. Brad Raffensperger, my guy, I know and like Brad Raffensperger, quite a bit nice guy, but he might not be right for this Georgia moment. I got. It was interesting to me as I was listening to the voters talk about Fulton county, because I see this there's a lot of places where I just did Louisiana. And so, you know, Cassidy's vote to impeach Trump is really dogging him. It's probably the reason he's not going to make the runoff, just like Brad Raffensperger is not going to make the runoff in Georgia. And they're just like they hate these people who did anything to stand up to Trump. But I was interested in this idea that, you know, they sent Tulsi Gabbard down there into Fulton county is did voters in Georgia. Do they think now that because Tulsi Gabbard went down there and grabbed all the boxes out of Fulton county that that is proof that something untoward happened in the election, that it's been proven somehow.

[Greg Bluestein]

Well, it's sort of this mirror image thing going on in Georgia because Democrats are saying, oh my God, they're trying to federalize our elections. They're obsessed with 2020, which to a degree is still true. Right. 2020 is still sort of shadowing everything that's happening in Georgia in 2026. And Republicans, you know, they're more split. But there are certainly a big giant MAGA core of Republicans who do think something went wrong in 2020, even though there's no evidence that anything that would have actually affected the election outcome went wrong. And so there are some who we call them never Raffensperger voters. And there's it's hard to poll exactly how many, but there's a lot of Republicans who would never ever, as we heard from one of those panelists, who would never ever vote for Raffensperger under any circumstances. But obviously he still won his 2022 re election bid. So there's a sizable group of Republicans who would. And yeah, he had the power of incumbency at his back. And Trump wasn't as popular in Georgia then as he is, at least with Republicans as he is now. So there's that element too. But he's trailing in third place by double digits in the latest AJC poll. So he has a long way to go if he's making this runoff.

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[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, there's another guy, the attorney General Chris Carr, who's also looks like he might not make the runoff, which is interesting. All right, so there are two main contenders then that I want to talk about, Lieutenant Governor Bert Jones, who was the fake elector when Trump was trying to overturn Georgia's election results in 20. Relatedly, has Trump's endorsement, Jones was looking like the obvious front runner until this past February, when a billionaire healthcare executive named Rick Jackson jumped into the race. There weren't many strongly held opinions in these Republican groups about either of these guys, but I do think they were kind of. Jackson curious. Let's listen.

[Focus Group Participant 1]

He hasn't already been bought. Once he gets in office, that'll, that'll happen. But as it is now, he's going to go in to try to get something done until the swamp absorbs him and turns him into everyone else. As much as a lot of people hated Kemp after the 2020 election, he stood his ground. He did his thing, and he made the state a hell of a lot better than it was before he got here. I don't think he got corrupted as much, but I think by being an outsider, you don't see how it really works. You get in there, but you're going to go in fighting like Trump does every single day, and everyone's going to hate you. But you've got to try to do something different than what's been going on.

[Focus Group Participant 8]

There's no one that really is standing out to me other than obviously Jackson and Jones. They obviously have the biggest budgets for advertising and things like that. But really, two key issues that I'm

[Focus Group Participant 9]

hearing,

[Focus Group Participant 8]

the elimination of the state income tax and reduction of property taxes. And I think a few candidates, you know, are kind of emphasizing that message a lot more. To me, those are very important.

[Focus Group Participant 10]

I had my candidate picked until he came on the scene, and so now I'm kind of going back and forth. I think he says some things very harshly, but I'm going to say that are very directly, but I'm gonna say I don't disagree with a lot of it. And so, like I said, I had my candidate picked until he came on the scene. And now I'm debating between two.

[Focus Group Participant 3]

Here's a guy that, he's pretty much rags to riches type dude. So. Yeah. Does he. Does he look and sound weird, like kind of, kind of shady? Most of them do, you know, but it's somebody that, you know, has went from nothing to something and built it up, you know, so, I mean, he knows tough times. So that's, you know, not, not bad worth giving him a shot or digging deep, digging in deeper to see more, learn more about him, you know, see what he's about, you know.

[Sarah Longwell]

So tell me about Rick Jackson, because these voters, he's like a billionaire, so I thought they'd, like, really hate him. So they were, like, sort of interested, though. What do you. What do you make of it?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, and I like what you said about Jackson. Curious voters, because, I mean, to say that he upended the. The Georgia Republican race for governor is like an understatement. I mean, he just completely, unbelievably overhauled it, right. With his surprise entrance. And I think he got in back in February because Bert Jones, the. The front runner, the Trump endorsed lieutenant governor, hadn't really walled him off. Right. He was 25, 22 in a lot of polling polls, well ahead of his rivals, but still, like, 60, 70 of undecided voters. He hadn't, like, sealed the deal. So Rick Jackson's on opening. He's been around Georgia politics for a long time, but really in the background, he's been this sort of insider mover and shaker and very involved in healthcare and foster care initiatives and things like that, but never as a candidate and a billionaire. Right. He has a giant campus up in the north Atlanta suburbs. He has this huge house up in the north Atlanta suburbs. And when he got in, it suddenly was this moment where a lot of people who are sort of on that fence were like, okay, I have an alternative to Bert Jones who's. Who's also very. Maggie, Rick Jackson promises to be Trump's favorite governor. And you also have an alternative to the other guys who aren't as pro or seen as that much of a mega force, but who could be like. Like Trump, but also, you know, pursue more mainstream Republican policies as well. So what also helped was that Rick Jackson has already spent more than $80 million of his own money on this race. And that's just what we know of. More than $100 million has been spent just on ads alone from all these candidates. And Rick Jackson makes up the huge. The biggest portion of it. So you can't turn on a screen in Georgia right now without seeing. So even if you don't listen to the ads, they're gonna, like, osmosis. They're gonna permeate you no matter what. And they're all over the place. There are a lot of positive spots. This is what Rick Jackson would do. There's a lot of negative spots, too, attacking Burt Jones, a few out there attacking Brad Raffensperger. But most of that has been Jones on Jackson. Violence. Right? Just mudslinging, negative back and forths. Mostly they. They back the same policies, but they have very, very different approaches and very, very different styles. And if you're Burt Jones, you thought you had this kind of in the bag, might have gone to a runoff against Raffensperger, but you were. You're pretty confident that Trump would come on, come in at the end and help you out and get you over the fence. And now Trump's still backing Bert Jones and Trump. Trump is still, you know, he held the teletown hall kind of for him just the other day. But Rick Jackson's looking to sort of neuter that, neutralize that saying, look, he might be backing Bert Jones, but I will be the guy. I will be. I will get actually get this stuff done.

[Sarah Longwell]

Before we talk about Bert Jones. I, I do want to just. It is all over these focus groups, how many ads they have to see. Yeah, I do feel sort of sorry for them. And I. There's a couple of things, I think, when I hear voters talk about ads. One is they all lament the negative advertising, and yet candidates never stop doing it because it does make a big difference, the negatively defining your opponent. I just like the extent, though, that to which they're like, I don't know what to think. These guys keep saying, you know, this one's bad, this one's bad.

[Rebel.com Advertiser]

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[Sarah Longwell]

But what are the issues that are actually motivating Georgians right now? What do people care about? What are they looking for in a candidate?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, well, Republicans think one of the issues, because they're all backing it, is cutting more taxes.

[Focus Group Participant 11]

Right.

[Greg Bluestein]

Cutting income tax, finding some way to bring down local property taxes as well. Most of them are saying nice things. I think all of them are kind of saying nice things about Governor Kemp and his leadership style. Not the part about Trump in 2020 and all that, but more about, you know, the steady conservative hand. Kemp was the first lifelong Republican governor in Georgia history. Right. The other two Republican governors switched parties and, you know, pursued gun expansions and abortion limits and all that. So they're all. They're all backing those. And of course, they're all talking about bringing affordability. They all seized on the affordability issues that Democrats are also talking about. They just have very different paths towards that affordability. You know, Republican path is cutting taxes.

[Sarah Longwell]

It really did jump out at me listening to these groups. There's just. There's not a single group that I do right now that doesn't start out with when we just say, how do you think things are going in the country? Everyone's like, bad, Everything's too expensive. I can't afford this. I can't afford that. These are the trade offs. I'm making. I'm sort of desperate for politicians to start listening to more voters regularly because I just don't think people realize how bad it is out here for people and how much I just. In every single group, Republican or Democrat, they talk about the actual trade offs, the price of gas, whatever. That being said, you know, they had really different ideas about what they want, what, what should be done to solve it. And they really were returning to these just like very tried and true. We need to cut taxes. We need to cut taxes. Which I gotta say, even in the Republican groups in some other states that are less Georgia reminds me those Republicans sound like Republicans of old in ways that a lot of other MAGA Republican groups don't because they're more populist. In a lot of these other places, they think that cutting taxes is for the elite and for the wealthy. And like what they want is for Trump to just give them more stuff. And so it is, it was interesting to hear how much they were just kind of going to the well on cutting taxes. But maybe Georgia's the last place where like the old school Republicans still kind of the, the actual, I don't even want to call them ideas, but, you know, they, they still believe in that old rock group, conservative stuff.

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, the last bastion of old guard Republicanism. I think there are a lot of Republicans here who like that sort of title. Although, you know, there's, there's plenty of Republicans who just want to be talking about election integrity right now too. And there's about to be a special session in Georgia that will tackle not only redistricting but also voting process. And so there's lots of Republicans who want lawmakers to go even further and to move towards paper ballots. And, and a lot of the things that we heard in Georgia after the 2020 election. So there's a stew of issues, but yeah, one of the main ones is income tax cuts. And Bert Jones promises to completely eliminate Georgia's income tax. You know, over, over is going to take a while, but over until 2032, which is more than 13, $14 billion of revenue. Rick Jackson promises to also slash it, but maybe not completely eliminate it. And we're seeing the real world repercussions of it. Just the other day, Governor Kemp took out $300 million of spending from Georgia's budget because you can't shave the income tax and also keep up all the spending without dipping deep into Georgia surplus. So there's that sort of reality, the cold hard reality meets all these promises. But right now that is where Republicans are going for the most part. There's lots of other policies and you still hear culture war stuff. They're still railing against DEI and there's some down ticket races where like sharia laws become an issue. And we haven't really heard about that in Georgia since after 9 11. Right. That's 20 years.

[Sarah Longwell]

Oh my God. It's all over the Texas stuff and in California, like there is tons of this sharia law law stuff that's coming back up. And I guess I know why, but it does feel weird and almost anachronistic and like not of the moment, but somehow Republicans are definitely running on it.

[Greg Bluestein]

I heard from a Democrat yesterday saying, what's next? The flag, like the Georgia flag was the biggest issue in the world in the early 2000s. But it's been a settled issue now and there's even worries that that could come back. But I think one of the reasons you're not hearing as much about culture wars in Georgia is because a lot of those boxes have been checked. They've already passed transgender restrictions and sports bans and a bill we call religious liberty that was a favorite of those sort of evangelical right. Lots of gun expansions in those abortion limits. So like a lot of those issues have been taken care of under Kemp's administration, to the delight of Republicans and the disappointment of Democrats. Now you're getting into new fronts. Whenever they're talking about, they're talking about DEI bans and things like that that might not have been completely addressed by the governor that they're looking to address in the future.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, you know that's tough when they've taken all those off the table. Republicans start to not they're out of ideas, not a lot left to do.

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[Sarah Longwell]

Okay, let's talk about Bert Jones. Let's play this out for Bert Jones and I'll get your take on him on the other side.

[Focus Group Participant 7]

Trump's not stupid. He's a smart man. So if he's endorsed Bert, he has his reasons. I don't necessarily know what they are. I've seen the ads where he, he goes through a couple of bullet points that don't necessarily say a whole lot, but I think to Cliff's point, with what happened in Indiana, you know, that I think alone is going to build some momentum where Trump chosen candidates are going to have better odds now than they did three days ago because of what happened in Indiana. I think that's going to continue. So I think that's going to give Bird a leg up.

[Focus Group Participant 12]

I don't know if he was endorsed before Jackson and if it would have been any different. You know, if that's all, I'm just curious. I do like the endorsement. You know, for the most part, Trump's going to endorse somebody and it's going to piss the Democrats off. So I'm going to vote for him. So, yeah, but I, I just, I don't know because I think that it was vote before he came in. So I don't know how much that means.

[Focus Group Participant 3]

My problem with Jones is, okay, so, you know, his family's the gas stations, right? So they're gonna want to tax the gas tax, they're going to want the higher price gas. They're going to want all that. So I don't see him fighting to lower the prices because then they're not going to make as much money. I don't think him coming in is going to be that person to make something happen. He's going to make, he's not going to, he's not going to ruffle the feathers in General Assembly. He's not going to, you know, you know, stir things up, get things motivated, get things advancing. You know, we're going to stay in the same, you know, pattern we're in. And I mean, Georgia's got a lot of growth in it and it's got, you know, yeah, we have a lot of, you know, a lot growing here. I mean, I live in Gwinnett county, so I mean, we have many people here as it is, whichever sucks, but whatever, you know, I mean, but I don't, I don't see, I don't see him being that fire.

[Focus Group Participant 1]

He's probably my second choice behind Jackson.

[Focus Group Participant 8]

For the Democrats, they're Going to paint him to be more of the, you know, the MAGA conservative crazy, you know, easier to beat. I feel like he's not as palatable to independents, maybe conservatives. You know, Trump supporters are going to love him. They're going to vote for him. I don't feel like he's is going to be as popular with the independents or I think we really need independents to come over and vote, you know, conservative and vote with Republicans.

[Focus Group Participant 10]

He runs a humane society where they stave hundreds and hundreds of animals and I just admire that. And I was at an event for that when I met them and so I was very positive for that.

[Focus Group Participant 13]

Bird Jones, to me as a bulldog, you know, and a bulldog fan, he's one of the first ones I'm going to look into because I don't know anything about him. I've seen his ads. He's not doing negative ads that I've seen. You know, it's more about him being a family man and a fighter and

[Greg Bluestein]

blah, blah, blah, whatever.

[Focus Group Participant 13]

It's too, too general to really tell you anything, but I do want to look into them.

[Sarah Longwell]

What are these two guys attach attacking? It sounds like they're. Even though that guy said I've seen a lot of positive ads. That was not the consensus of the group. It sounds like they're attacking each other quite a bit. What feels like it's going to decide this or and what are the issues that they're attacking each other on that are breaking through or not breaking through to Stew.

[Greg Bluestein]

But there's a lot of issues. Bert Jones is attacking Rick Jackson saying that, you know, his company harbored illegal immigrants and that he basically really the underlying thing is that the guy's a phony. Bert Jones wants to point Rick Jackson as this never Trumper who just came on the Trump bandwagon more recently and now he's trying to be the Trump warrior and he's really not. That's Bert Jones's argument. And there's look, you can look back, you can look at some of his donations to anti Trump figures in the Republican Party over the past decade. Also, he donated a million dollars to Trump, but it wasn't until December of last year, right, as he was presumably thinking about getting in this race. So there's so he's got like numbers and donations and all that to back that up. Rick Jackson's main argument, like if you go to the very. There's lots of things going back and forth and mudslinging about what his gas stations sell and all this, but the very core of it is that Bert Jones is sort of expected to be this guy like that. He's had everything given to him. He's the son of this billionaire gas and petroleum industry leader in Georgia and that he's never had to really work for something and that Rick Jackson's not going to let him just waltz into this office. It would look like it was going to be a coronation. And here comes Rick Jackson and I think there's a part of him that's, that's pissed off about that, this, you know, that Bert wasn't working for it in the same way that, that not just rejects, but other, other Republicans were worried about. I was getting text and you know, all the off the record stuff that we as reporters get all throughout last year saying when's he going to go on the campaign trail? When's he going to do this? And that Rick Jackson's kind of punched him in the mouth and forced him to go and step up his own campaign right now. So there's this one ad where Rick Jackson talks about like, you know, eating Cheetos in the basement or something, something to that effect. And most of Georgia Republican insiders think he's talking about Bert Jones just kind of being lazy about this. And certainly Bert Jones isn't being lazy now. He's on the campaign trail all the time. But I think that goes to the heart of it. The Rick Jackson's had to fight and work for everything. He's a foster care kid with an abusive mom. He talks about that a lot in his campaign ads and on the trail. And he's built himself into this billion, $3billion guy who's putting at least a fraction of that into this race. But he's had to fight for it. And I think there's a part of him that's mad that Bert Jones hasn't. And here he is with Trump's endorsement on the eve of this primary.

[Sarah Longwell]

Any chance that Trump switches his endorsement if it looks like Bert Jones isn't, isn't cutting it?

[Greg Bluestein]

I don't think there's a chance of that. Watch that happen and then have to eat my words. But I think more that there's, there's always this chance that either Trump doubles up and says I like both of them, or I think more likely Trump stays behind Burt Jones, but might say some nice things about Rick Jackson or might say nothing negative about Rick Jackson at all. And I think for Rick Jackson, that's a win. His team sees that a win as long as Trump doesn't go out there and say, that guy is a phony, He's a Never Trumper. They'll take that any day.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, as an OG Never Trumper, I've never seen Jackson at the meetings, so I think it's probably fake news.

[Greg Bluestein]

You might use that. As for his next campaign ad, watch out.

[Sarah Longwell]

I know. Don't put me in an ad. All right, so I want to switch gears, though, and talk about the Democratic primary for governor. We've got former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. She looks like she's going to win the nomination eventually, though she may end up in a June runoff with one of the three different people. One is Jason Estevez, who is a progressive state legislator. Michael thurmond, a former DeKalb County CEO who ran for U.S. senate in 2010, or Jeff Duncan, my guy, Jeff Duncan, speaking of Never Trumpers, who served as lieutenant governor for one term as a Republican and who is now running as a Democrat. So it's interesting. I know a little bit. Keisha Lance Bottoms. She and I taught IOP at the Institute of Politics in Chicago at the same time. She's clearly in the lead, but there also wasn't like a ton of enthusiasm for her in these groups that we talked to. So let's listen.

[Focus Group Participant 9]

I don't think she's winnable.

[Greg Bluestein]

I don't have any issues with her. But, you know, Stacy's my Spelman sister. If she couldn't be governor, can't no sister be governor. That's all I want to say.

[Focus Group Participant 14]

One of my big concerns about Geisha Lance Bottoms is that she will bring us off down. And because she'll be at the top of the ticket, I don't have

[Focus Group Participant 6]

as much experience with Keisha and the other candidates. Everybody else does. But just knowing what I have of her, I was in. I was in Atlanta, made the last two years of her mayoral residency. I just don't see her. I see her as a good candidate, but just not as one that would be able to appeal to the masses. When it comes to getting any Republican votes or blackmail votes, I just don't know how that would go. I'm a little uneasy about it.

[Focus Group Participant 9]

She's pretty similar as Kamala Harris as far as a Democrat and where you heard them doing conversations, like at barbershops where they did a lot of black men just did not vote for her because she was a female.

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A lot of my friends, my neighbor has Jason sign in their yard, and so he's just been doing a lot more campaigning on the ground. And it's just a presence. I haven't seen from Keisha. She had so many, like, wrong time things happened during her candidacy. And I just feel like the press and the, you know, what people took of her, her time was not overall positive. You know, she served one term, and then we saw her go and serve in D.C. and work on Biden's administration. And then so people felt like there was a sense of abandonment and seeking for larger opportunities. So there's that feel, I feel like locally around her perception here. I just feel like she got just a bad draw of the stick.

[Focus Group Participant 6]

It seems like she's very concerned with being a pundit and being a personality on MSNBC and cnn as opposed to being a representative for Atlanta. Again, I'm not a native of Atlanta, but I do know that there is a sense of pride in the city when it comes to the natives. And when it comes to Akisha, I find that most, if not half the city is usually on the fence as to whether or not she's truly for them or not.

[Sarah Longwell]

So what do you think the upsides and downsides are of nominating Keisha Lance Bottoms? Because I will say, listening to voters all the time, comparing her to Kamala, kind of a negative there in Georgia, just. And what I heard is actually quite similar to Kamala, what I hear in focus groups, which is just the meh of it. So tell me what you. You think and hear about her.

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah. Well, first, Georgia Democrats have been dominated by Stacey Abrams.

[Focus Group Participant 1]

Right.

[Greg Bluestein]

Ossoff and Warnock, of course, two are statewide stars in the party, But Abrams has just been the candidate for governor for the last. The previous two terms. So this is like the first time where Democrats have a real giant open race after she decided not to run a third time and other other bigger name candidates decided not to run. Like Jason Carter, the grandson of Jimmy Carter, says he's not running. Lucy McBath, who I mentioned earlier, that flipping that suburban seat, she's not running. So Keisha Lance Bottoms is always looked at as the sort of front runner in this race, and the polls bear that out. But you can hear the, the concerns about electability. Right. Over and over again. And there's negatives and positives with her. Of course, the, the positives are she's got city experience and the biggest bastion of blue votes in Georgia metro Atlanta. She worked for Joe Biden, part of his inner circle.

[Sarah Longwell]

Is that good or bad?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, I mean, to some true blue Democrats, it's still a great thing. Her endorsement. She got his endorsement just a few days ago, and that was that. Sent out ripple effects across, across the Democratic world. But of course, there's the downfalls both of that. She led Atlanta during a really tumultuous time. The pandemic and the protests for, for racial equality. And there's a lot of folks who said that she was sleeping on the job, that she was, she was asleep at the wheel, that she wasn't this constant steady presence in the city at the time, at a time where you really demanded it. She, of course, you know, pushes back on that. But there was the tragic murder of an eight year old girl at one of these sites in south Atlanta that really became a zone of lawlessness on her watch. That has come up in a major way in the campaign. It will continue to come up. If she's the nominee, Republicans will bring that up, too. And then of course, there's her decision not to run for a second term. She became the first Atlanta mayor in modern history not to seek a second term. And so she was branded a quitter by a lot of folks. And it really, it really surprised people here in Atlanta. I mean, there were some signs looking back, breadcrumbs, that she might not have run. But, but if she can't run for a second term, how can she go and serve as Georgia governor for an even bigger job and do it for eight years? Because whoever wins, you know, Democrats are going to hope that they run again. So those are some of the drawbacks. But, you know, she hasn't caught fire yet. She's certainly the front runner in Democrats. But I look back to 2018 and like, there's no Stacey Abrams like figure in this contest that just became like a national star. And that might be partly by design. Right. Because that played against Stacey Abrams, too, becoming this national figure. Republicans, you know, every Republican in Georgia, even folks running for probate judge and dog catcher, will run against Stacey Abrams. So Keisha Lance Bottoms doesn't have those negatives yet, and maybe she won't. But, but you're already seeing Republicans try to run against her. Rick Jackson, Burt Jones, they're all, Brad Raffensberger, they're all invoking her right now. And there's an outside chance she can win this thing without a runoff. But more likely, it looks like, you know, one of those three opponents and neither of them has emerged as the consensus alternative yet, at least in the polling and probably in your focus group, there's not one sort of favorite. But they're all arguing that there could be the, the more electable Democrat come November.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, Estevez Thurmond and Duncan are all hovering around like the 10% mark in the polling, and she may very well break 50% and avoid the runoff, but she might not. And I do want to dig just this is again, never Trumper privilege here. I want to dig in deeper on the Jeff Duncan of it all, because this is an interesting thing, right? I want to know how. I really wanted to know from these Georgia groups how they felt about a former Republican running as a Democrat in one of their primaries. So let's listen.

[Focus Group Participant 14]

My first choice was Jeff Duncan only because he took a moral stand. He showed his character. And as I said at the very beginning, we don't have a lot of people doing that, standing up for what's right. And he stood up against very powerful people, and he lost prestige in his

[Focus Group Participant 7]

office

[Focus Group Participant 14]

because of it. Could run for reelection.

[Focus Group Participant 6]

I'm open to learning more about him as a candidate. I try not to go for the popular kids, as is Kesha. You know, I know what I do know about her, but I do want to give another candidate a chance. I think this vote and our next are really important. And having a candidate that's not only strong in the primaries, but that can go ahead for the big election and win, that is very important. But this is a person that's going to be representing the state and a whole lot of policies that people are keeping their eyes on Georgia for.

[Focus Group Participant 11]

It's not that I dislike him or anything, but I do appreciate the fact that he did stand up to Trump and their illegal behavior. But my worries is that, like so many others, they go back home to the Republican Party and we put him in office. Will he change back over to who he was before? But if it comes down to the general election, it's him for the Democratic Party, I will vote for him.

[Focus Group Participant 9]

You know, some people are just turned off by race. So people in South Georgia might forgive him for the fact that now he's a Democrat because a lot of people are suffering, especially in South Georgia, economically. So those who may have been prejudiced may still vote Democrats. I'm looking for somebody who can win. And so I think he has a good chance that he could cross both sides because a lot of Republicans are frustrated, too.

[Sarah Longwell]

I have a bunch of questions about Duncan.

[Greg Bluestein]

He's so fascinating, isn't he?

[Sarah Longwell]

Again, I know him a little bit as well. He's at a lot of the same stuff that I am. He is at the Never Trump. He was at the Never Trump meetings. He is like a real conservative guy, like he really was, who was trying to run as a Democrat. And it was interesting to me to hear people say that they worry he's going to go back to that. Like they can't quite trust him. Because I would say there's a lot of Democrats over the last 10 years who have viewed never Trumpers as like, good allies in the anti Trump fight. But, like, you guys are not. Nobody's like, oh, you guys aren't real Democrats who are going to actually, you know, care about the same issues. And this was like a pro life guy. So how is he being received by Democrats in Georgia?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, there's a lot of Democrats who want those never Trumpers to vote for Democrats, but not to run for office, I guess. I think that's a decent way to kind of paraphrase it. Jeff Duncan's this fascinating figure because I've known him since he was a backbench Republican state lawmaker who's super conservative. He ran with Trump's endorsement, right. One office did all the things you'd think the Republican lieutenant governor would do, a mainstream Republican lieutenant governor do. And then 2020 happened, and it started slowly, his transformation. I got to basically chronicle it. You know, he'd start picking fights with Republicans a little bit more and more and more and then kind of go whole hog to the point where he got exiled from the Republican Party, threatened with criminal trespass if he attended any state Republican events. And then he spoke at the DNC and then he switched parties formally like a year ago. A lot of the concerns about him are basically two buckets. One is that he's a Trojan horse, that, you know, that he's saying all these things and he'll kind of go back on his word like we heard. The other is not even that he's a Trojan horse. It's just that he did all these things that are like, completely contrary to all the Democratic principles right now. Right. He supported abortion limits, he supported, he opposed Medicaid expansion, he supported expansions of gun rights. He supported conservative evangelical based, you know, religious liberty type bills. And I mean, the list goes on and on. And, and, and yet now he's basically saying I was wrong and all those things. Right? All those things he says he was wrong on. And if you go to any of his campaign events, that's the sort of essential. It's almost like an apology tour. I was wrong about this, I was wrong about that. And here's what I'll do. I'll rectify that. And there are a lot of Democrats who want those types of folks to start voting with them, but don't believe that they should be the ones holding the party banner. And he's, he's about tied with his other two rivals not named Keisha Lentz Bottoms in all the polls. And the reason why he still has significant support is because there are a lot of Democrats, like we heard, who just say, hey, he's the one who can best win statewide because he's done it before recently. You know, he did it in back in 2018. So if he's done it before, he's the one who can band together that coalition of independent voters and core Democrats, and they see him as an effective alternate to Keisha Lance Bottoms. But whether he'll get enough of that support to actually make it to a runoff and turn this into a real, real deep divide, I mean, that would be a staunch contrast between him and Keisha Lyons Bottoms. That's the big question. I think that's, that's one of the many questions in Tuesday's primary. But that might be the one I'm watching most closely.

[Sarah Longwell]

If somebody does get into a runoff with Keisha Lance Bottoms, do you think it's him, or do you think it would be one of these other two guys?

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah, I mean, Esteban is coming on strong as well. He's, he's. His folks feel like he's peaking when he needs to be. And Michael Thurman has always been about the 10% point. Like, he hasn't really moved that much in our polls, but he's always been least a smidgen higher than the other guys. And, you know, he's won statewide, too, before, but that was decades ago. He's been a force. I mean, one of the best things going for him is, of course, like, he's a magnetic speaker. He's very dynamic. But also the fact that he, his base is DeKalb county, which is the most important Democratic stronghold in Georgia. He's won countywide office there multiple times. So if DeKalb county comes out big for him, he's in.

[Sarah Longwell]

I guess we will see. But we will be watching. I'm excited for this Georgia primary. There's a lot. There's actually a lot on the line ultimately. So. Greg Bluestein, thank you so much for joining us. I love talking to you. It's one of my favorites. I think George is such a fascinating state, and you know more about it than anybody. I don't know. Would you have anything you want to promote to the audience? Because everybody should be following you.

[Greg Bluestein]

Yeah. Politically, George is a podcast that I co host. It's every single day politically Georgia. You can find it on anywhere you stream podcast. It's all about Georgia politics. And follow us on social media, ajc.com and I'm Bluestein on Twitter and some variation of that on Blue sky and Substack and all the rest.

[Sarah Longwell]

I follow you all the time. All right. So thanks to you and thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, subscribe. Go to bulwarkplus. Com. Subscribe. We just crossed a million subscribers at the Bulwark. And so we are very happy about that. If you're not one of them, become one of them today. And we'll see you guys next week.

[Greg Bluestein]

Thank you.