← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:00]
Sarah Longwell
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Peter Hamby
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Sarah Longwell
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Peter Hamby
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Sarah Longwell
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- [00:49]
Peter Hamby
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- [00:52]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
Call 1-800-granger.
- [00:53]
Peter Hamby
Visit granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. When you live in the real world and people come to California, they're always like, oh, this place is pretty sick. Like it is. If everyone could afford to live in California, you would. You definitely would.
- [01:15]
Sarah Longwell
Hello, everyone, and welcome to the focus group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we are going to California, where everybody loves the economy, the weather and the scenery. But a lot of people, even Democrats, are kind of meh about the state government soon to be presidential Candidate Gavin Newsom is term Limited out of office, and my guest calls the state's politics this year the purest distillation of the progressive ID that includes the crowded race to replace Newsom. The two front runners are a billionaire backed by people who hate billionaires and a milquetoast passive candidate seeking the approval of a party that wants exciting fighters, leaders, at least at the national level. We'll see about California. My guest today is Peter Hamby, founder of Puck News and a handsome, sophisticated Californian. What's up, Peter?
- [02:08]
Peter Hamby
Hey. My focus groupie mug is in the wash, so forgive me. It's good to see you, though.
- [02:12]
Sarah Longwell
Okay.
- [02:13]
Peter Hamby
Reporting from the Venice bureau for the focus group and the Bulwark.
- [02:16]
Sarah Longwell
We were out there last week and so we got all. We got a good taste of what's happening out in California. But you know California because you're out there. It's a frequent recurring theme in your writing for Puck. But why should someone who doesn't live in California care about its elections?
- [02:33]
Peter Hamby
It's a great question. And by the way, that piece that I wrote that you mentioned, I wrote A few weeks ago or months ago, before Eric Swalwell's implosion, which I think got to something else we're talking about. Put aside the Los Angeles mayors race, which I hope we can talk about, because the Spencer Pratt phenomenon isn't just about, you know, his politics and his attentional powers. It's also about, I think this would be something you and I would be interested in, sort of failure of certain Democratic politicians to seize the moment. But the governor's race, it was interesting when Swalwell was in it for a variety of reasons. One, he was kind of running when I wrote that piece on sort of a version of what Gavin Newsom did his Prop 50 campaign on, which was a complicated sort of ballot measure about redistricting, maybe not that complicated, but for everyday voters. And so Gavin Newsom, with many millions of dollars, turned that race into a statement against Donald Trump. So stop the ICE raids, stop the chaos. You know, Trump is anti democratic, etc. And so when Swalwell jumped in the race, his campaign, in a state that has many challenges, shaky budget crisis despite a lot of AI revenue coming in, homelessness, crime, affordability, and housing chief among them, probably, you know, Swalwell wasn't running too much on that, despite being the nominal front runner for a while in the governor's race, he was running on just sort of like resistance stuff. And, you know, you can call it lib slop, but it was just like, I'm going to stand up to Donald Trump. I was part of, of the, you know, the House panel that ran his impeachment. Just Trump, Trump, Trump video content.
- [04:17]
Sarah Longwell
But we should note that was getting him to the top of the field.
- [04:19]
Peter Hamby
Yes, exactly. And so when I wrote that piece about the distillation of Democratic politics, it's not Michigan or Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, where your favorite governor lives. It is a obviously liberal left state. But if you think about the ID of the Democratic voter that does participate in primaries and caucuses in 2028 even, it's just sort of a good temperature check about where they're at. And I should also mention, you know, California's electoral makeup looks a little different. You know, it's the. The electorate in the state is about 30% Latino. There's more Latino voters than black voters in the state. So it's not necessarily like a state like Michigan or South Carolina, but you had two Latino candidates. This is the governor's race. Have Javier Becerra, who's currently winning, who's sort of carving out a pro business moderate. Stay the course Lane while also having a serious charisma deficit. Antonio Villa Rugosa also sort of in that moderate lane, former mayor of la. But then you got Tom Steyer, who is spending over $200 million of his own money and is carving out the leftist progressive lane with the help of consultants who worked for Zoron and Graham Platner. And it's a little bit of an awkward fit because he's a billionaire and he's an old guy. And then you got like Katie Porter, the, you know, resistance mom who is also good on affordability issues, the Elizabeth Warren protege. You had Matt Mahan, who's been fizzling and probably won't make the runoff, who's backed by Silicon Valley tech money and a lot of sort of moderate pragmatists in the state who want plans for more housing and plans to deal with street homelessness in the state. And he had them. But there just wasn't really a lane for a moderate for him to take off anyway. That's a long way of saying if you're a Democrat, there was something for everybody in this primary. And, you know, all of them, by the way, are running on fighting Trump, fighting Trump, fighting Trump. But everyone's got a little bit of a different carve out in this space. And, you know, after Swalwell left, voters including Latinos, kind of moved to Becerra and that was about what, six weeks ago and just kind of stayed there. And he's in the driver's seat heading into the primary on Tuesday. And as people know, hope they know California has a top two system. So the top two advance. The other thing is Donald Trump endorsed Steve Hilton, the Fox News guy who has a British accent over a sheriff from Riverside County. And so Republicans kind of consolidated around Hilton, who will probably get one of those top two slots. And so it's coming down to Becerra, who has a lot of Newsom's people working for him and by the way, has a lot of just sort of the California establishment business community realtors who don't want to be taxed more. You have medical associations, the power utilities, oil companies are all giving money to independent groups supporting Becerra, whereas Stire is self funding and he's the progressive. Both of them are not super exciting to voters, but I think only one of them, if the polls hold, will move on to the general election. So that is my summary of the race before we get to your focus groups.
- [07:28]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that was incredible. That was a. You've got that thing on lock. I can't wait for you to do the LA mayor's race. So we did a focus group of California Democrats for this show, and some of the Democrats from last week's show with Adam Jenelson were also from California. So you may hear some familiar voices later in the show. We start every focus group with the same question. How do you think things are going in the country? And with Californians, we also started it with, you know, how are things going in the country? And how do you think things are going in California? So let's listen to what they told us just to set the table.
- [08:02]
Peter Hamby
Cost of living is higher than I'd
- [08:04]
Sarah Longwell
like, but I know I pay to live in the best state in the union.
- [08:09]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
They're still not great because, you know, everything is still, you know, very expensive, you know, from gas to cost of living to food. So, yeah, I mean, definitely room, room for improvement in California, but I don't think, like, it's getting any worse.
- [08:21]
Sarah Longwell
The only way I can describe it is dumpster fire. Both here in California and across the nation.
- [08:29]
Peter Hamby
I'm more optimistic about California, but it's. It's always been an expensive place to live.
- [08:33]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
There's always been a lot of wealth disparity.
- [08:37]
Peter Hamby
You know, at least we're led democratically. So some of those ideals are very much in hand with my, my beliefs. Still a difficult place to live and make it and thrive.
- [08:48]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
I also agree that California is in a better place than the rest of the US But I'm also of the mind that like, well, just because like one area is better than the rest of the U.S. doesn't, like, you know, it's like a band aid to like the entire issue or just because some people are thriving doesn't mean that everyone's thriving. And for me, in San Jose, I'm in a very primarily Latino Hispanic area. And this is bad. I think education is absolutely abysmal, like across the whole US right now. And that's kind of my passion and where I come from, I think I
- [09:24]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
agree that things aren't great, but certainly better than the rest of the country. But I think that I agree with the point that it still doesn't excuse us not trying to improve conditions within our own state. I live in San Francisco and it feels like recently the wealth disparity is extra apparent with a lot of AI companies coming in and then comparing that to the growing unhoused community.
- [09:53]
Peter Hamby
We're now the fourth largest economy in the world, so doing okay there and feels like there is opportunity. But of course, California has always been and continues to be a very expensive place to live.
- [10:06]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
Generally speaking, like, I'm happy to be living here versus most other states in the country.
- [10:14]
Sarah Longwell
There's always room for improvement.
- [10:16]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
Of course, I've been in California most of my life, but I don't think that California, even as someone who is like. Who has, like, a high income and works in tech and everything, it's still. Still feels unaffordable here. And I don't see myself making a life in California. My plan is to live in California for as long as I need to to make money. But then when the moment comes, I think. I think I'm going to go somewhere more affordable.
- [10:45]
Sarah Longwell
Okay. So I have a slight temptation to raise the dichotomy between voters saying that they love California and they love the fact that it's always governed by liberals, while also lamenting that the costs are too high and it's like an unaffordable place to live. But instead of that, I actually want to answer my own question from before around why California matters to a national audience, not just a California one. And to me, one of the implications is that both Gavin Newsom and potentially Kamala Harris are going to run for president, and especially Gavin Newsom will likely be a front runner. People right now are talking about Kamala being a front runner. I think that will not last based on what I hear from voters. Just because she's at the top of the polls. That's this really name recognition.
- [11:36]
Peter Hamby
Yes, that's correct.
- [11:37]
Sarah Longwell
We're far from. From being into that race. Also, I would just say for Kamala Harris, had she wanted to and had she decided to run for the governor of California, she would have immediately been the governor of California and feels like kind of a swing and a miss on that would have solved a lot of problems. Here's the question. Gavin Newsom should have an interest in the next person running California because it is tough. And I think it's hard for people who don't really realize that people in other states do not look at California the way that Californians look at California. Californians, even with the criticisms, they're like, we love California. It's great here. But other people look at California and say, I don't want to be like California. Especially people in Midwest states, like, they look at California as, like, a cautionary tale. And so for a guy like Newsom, what's it going to be like for him running for president when the fourth largest economy that he wants to preside over, like, is in kind of a rut economically?
- [12:34]
Peter Hamby
Yeah, no, I think there's, there's three things I want to pull out there that you said that are very interesting. So one, if you do live in the Midwest and you look at California, and if you watch Fox News and the way they talk about California, like, ew, gross. A cautionary tale. This like mono party state where it's so expensive and people poop on the street and it's Gamora, it's like the socialist republic of California. But when you live in the real world and people come to California, they're always like, oh, this place is pretty sick. Like it is. The problem is California's the best. If everyone could afford to live in California, you would, you definitely would. Okay, here's the problem. Every year, and this goes back, I just looked it up to 2001, but more, it's accelerated more recently. About a quarter million people are leaving the state every year. That's true. Like that's a Republican narrative that's also based in fact, because people are going to places that are easier to live with lower tax burdens, including property tax burdens, which are really high, you know, even despite the Prop 13 revolution back in the day, you know, and this by the way, speaking of the Palisades fires, one reason that was so devastating, yes, rich people lived in the Palisades, but so did many middle class people who just had their houses forever and the property values just went up, up,
- [13:49]
Sarah Longwell
up, up, up, up, up.
- [13:50]
Peter Hamby
And so now if you're rebuilding a house or you're trying to move one with interest rates the way they are, but two, California property taxes, suddenly with your kitty gone, you can't afford to build a new house or move to a new house in California. Because over the last 20, 30 years, it's just become so expensive with property values. Um, the people that are afford, can afford to stay here are wealthy people. The Public Policy Institute of California studied this. Like most people leaving the state are middle and low income people. And that's especially true in the Bay Area. In Los Angeles, someone mentioned San Jose. And yeah, you can move out to the Valley or something, but it's still expensive. You gotta move to Arizona or Wyoming or maybe Texas or whatever. And it's not like the Ben Shapiro, Joe Rogan, Elon Musk narrative where everyone's moving to Texas. You know, the guys who host the all in podcast, you know, aren't actually going to move from California. They're rich, they're fine. And so anyway, if you're Gavin Newsom and you're running for president, you're exactly right. You want the state that is central to your narrative. And if you listen to Gavin Newsom talk and talk and talk and talk, you know, he talks about innovation, education, climate investments, you know, protections around abortion, civil rights, all the things he's done. And there's a voluminous number of legislation that, that he's passed in, you know, single party control Sacramento, and also executive orders that he's done. And California leads the nation in a lot of things. You know, car companies look to California tailpipe emissions, because what people do regulating cars in California, you know, the car companies have to build cars for the rest of the country. And the rest of the countries or states, many of them typically follow. So all of that said, he has not endorsed in the governor's race for a successor. Yes, some of his people were working for Swalwell and were now working for Becerra, kind of like the hired gun mercenaries. But Newsom staying away from it, and I think smartly. But there are things in California that happen. Donald Trump targets California all the time. And yeah, he might only be there for two more years, but he's going to continue targeting California for a variety of reasons, either through his US Attorneys or the Justice Department or with National Guard, whatever. There's also wildfires and earthquakes and then the affordability crisis and things you can't control. And so if Newsom is posted up in South Carolina talking to people and whoever's governor back home is doing things, one, differently than Newsom, like, like erasing parts of his record or two, you know, Donald Trump is trying to make California look like a chaotic socialist hellhole using whatever tools he has in his toolkit. That's not going to help nome in some of these primary states, maybe with like, liberal progressive voters. But, you know, I, and I always say this, having lived in South Carolina and covered so many Democratic primaries there, that will either be the first state or one of them. You know, a lot of the electorates in these states are actually kind of pragmatic and moderate. That's why Bernie Sanders was never the nominee. And so, you know, they might have concerns about Gavin Newsom being too much of a liberal. And, and we could do a whole podcast with me going 100 miles an hour in this direction saying why Newsom is the best nominee and 100 miles in this direction saying why he's the worst nominee. It's really a confusing, confounding, interesting conversation to have. But I talked to some Joe Biden people the other day who anonymously, some of them publicly Susan Rice have been very critical of Javier Becerra, saying he was kind of an empty suit as HHS secretary, hasn't really didn't bring any strategic thinking to his role in the Biden administration. And one of them said to me, look like if Becerra wins, which seems likely, Gavin is going to have to make sure that he's got good people around him because this person was saying I wouldn't trust him to run the enormous state of California in an emergency because he's not a nimble person. Again, that's their criticism. Other people defend Becerra, but it's a, it is a huge question for Newsom. Absolutely.
- [17:49]
Sarah Longwell
That's interesting. Well, let's, let's get into it. Okay, look, you already laid out the top two. I was going to do that, but you, you, you put it out there clearly and like for a minute there was this slim chance it was going to be two Republicans, which is why Democrats were needed to like, hurry up and find somebody to make sure that they're in a runoff. Because once you're in the runoff, the chance that the Democrat wins 60, 40 is pretty, pretty locked. Yeah.
- [18:12]
Peter Hamby
Yeah. I mean, at the state is, I mean, here's the actual registration data from a data nerd I know in, in the Bay Area. So in the state, the, the state is 45% Democrat, 25% Republican and then the rest 30% no party preference. So yeah, I mean, like typically what happens here, at least in recent years there has been a Republican governor since Schwarzenegger, one that yes, Republican voters will consolidate around the Republican, but there's just too many registered Democrats to over to for Republicans to really overcome that. And by the way, the other thing is with Trump, it's kind of eliminated the like the bulwark style candidates who did exist here. You know, obviously you had Meg Whitman run for governor and miss back in 2010. But you know, there is a tradition of moderate Republicanism in this state. There's obviously the cradle of conservatism in Orange county can be more right wing. But you know, the moderate mayor of San Diego who might theoretically run, the Rick Caruso who might theoretically run it gets that Matt Mayhem thing I was mentioning earlier, like the business friendly moderate Republican and the business friendly moderate Democrat just get pulled apart into their corners by the choices on the ballot in this top two primary system. And it doesn't really leave any room for a sort of moderate Republican. And so you have, you know, Steve Hilton, by the way, is trying to pivot already to being a Moderate Republican and maybe hoping he can win, but he just can't. He's got an R next to his name. He's been endorsed by Donald Trump.
- [19:43]
Sarah Longwell
He's on Fox News. It's funny, I did know he had that show on Fox News, and somehow I had forgotten it.
- [19:49]
Peter Hamby
Was it a weekend show? I kind of forgot, too.
- [19:51]
Sarah Longwell
It's not like I watched it, but I would occasionally catch clips, you know, scrolling by when I was watching the debate and he opened his mouth the first time and I was like, oh, oh, yeah, it's that guy. And that guy's British. And. And listen, I love people who come to this country and want to serve it as elected officials, but, you know, not him.
- [20:11]
Peter Hamby
Schwarzenegger had an accent, which he invokes every now and then, but that was, again, a different election and a whole different. Different person. Yeah.
- [20:20]
Sarah Longwell
So I want to talk about sort of Becerra, who was Joe Biden's HHS secretary and California's Attorney general, and Tom Steyer, because it really is coming down to those two, I think, in the polling. Tom Stier, of course, a billionaire climate activist who ran for president in 2020. And so since Swalwell dropped out, they've essentially been the front runners. So let's hear how the groups talked
- [20:42]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 5
about each of them.
- [20:43]
Sarah Longwell
And we'll start with Becerra.
- [20:44]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
I kind of like Becerra, but I'm not going to vote early. I'm going to wait until the last minute and support whoever's got the momentum.
- [20:54]
Sarah Longwell
I think, for this primary, I think I'd probably put my two between Styr and Becerra, because I feel like with Becerra, he has, like, the experience of,
- [21:05]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
like, working with, like, a government.
- [21:07]
Sarah Longwell
So. And I think with Steyer, I think he has, like, really, like, clear policies. But, like, again, I feel like for this election, overall, the Democrat candidates, they haven't really been, like, super, like, exciting.
- [21:23]
Peter Hamby
I was looking into Becerra, Jaime 0.
- [21:25]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
But like Frederick mentioned, you know, I've
- [21:28]
Peter Hamby
seen the dirt that he has on the shoulders regarding the kids that went missing.
- [21:31]
Sarah Longwell
And to me, that's a big no. You know, it's. It's like everybody says, you know, we
- [21:35]
Peter Hamby
have to do everything, work for the kids. You know, it's the future of America and all of other generations.
- [21:41]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
You know, I get the impression from his past role, you know, where he, you know, I think he did a good job, and maybe he had some hiccups and he didn't. He wasn't that notable. It didn't seem to Me. So I kind of feel like he would be maybe probably a okay governor, but not a. A great governor.
- [21:59]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
I know that the Biden administration endorsed him, so he might. He's probably my second or third pick. But it was that incident that Freddie brought up, and I brought it up, too, with the big fumble Becerra had that kind of was like, no, I can't vote for this guy. But otherwise, I do see him as. He could get the job done and he could easily replace like. Like a new. The thing is, like, I don't want just a new Gavin Newson. I don't want things to keep going as they're going. I want change.
- [22:32]
Sarah Longwell
He does seem very much like a professional politician, which is something that bothers me. I want someone who really is out there becoming someone that's more of a servant to serve the community rather than a professional. You know, that, hey, look, this is the next step. There's an opening here. It felt to me very much like he saw, you know, literally an opening. Like, you know what? I think I can do this. I can get in there. Rather than something he had been working towards or wanting to improve. So what I heard in the groups was that Becerra has real regular politician energy, although I think as an observer, I would say he's not even that great as a regular politician. But for the voters who. Who catch these sort of. Sort of the vibes off these candidates, there's nothing about him that's exciting or interesting. But. And you did, the piece that, that you wrote is like, is Becerra the best California can do? And this is my question, like, why is the California bench so weak? There are so many people in California and so many Democrats. It feels like it would field a strong bench, but that hasn't been the case.
- [23:44]
Peter Hamby
A big answer to that is, you're right. And like I said, the Democrats have a super majority in Sacramento. They run the cities, most of them, you know, city council members. You've also got a lot of rich people, but that gets the point. Probably costs about $4 million a week to run a credible statewide television campaign. And by the way, that's beyond digital and beyond Tom Steyer paying influencers and whatever. But it is really expensive. And this gets the Matt Mahan thing. He came into the race with a lot of elite establishment. Maybe not establishment, but like elite media buzz tech people. But he's still the mayor of San Jose, which is the fourth largest city in California. It's a big deal. But he would have had to put in a Lot of spade work in Southern California, you know, beyond just the Bay Area and also, you know, among Latinos who don't know him in other parts of the state. It's just very expensive. And so that's a big hurdle. You know, Buffy Wicks, who's a state legislator up in Sacramento, worked for Obama, a lot of people like her. Sears, a problem solver, has done some cool legislation in the Democratic Party. She was thinking about it, and she's like a millennial, like us. But the amount of money you would have to put into fundraising and then building your name ID over time is really hard. And that's one reason Swalwell was popping early on, Sarah, is, you know, beyond the local media stuff, Swallow was such a common face on CNN and msnbc, you know, and say what you will about the reach of linear television now and cable specifically, but, you know, high information. Democratic voters knew at least notionally who he was, and so he had something to build on. Yeah, that gets to the Becerra question, which is, he's been a member of Congress from Los Angeles for 20 years. He was on the ballot statewide here as attorney general, and he was on the news during the first Trump administration, suing the Trump administration, and then he was HHS secretary under Biden. And so voters after Swalwell imploded and were looking for somewhere to go. A lot of Latinos, by the way, moved to him. And the Public Policy Institute released a poll on Thursday at the Public Policy Institute of California. Becerra is winning in every key subgroup. He's winning among Democrats.
- [26:03]
Sarah Longwell
Yes.
- [26:03]
Peter Hamby
He's winning women, he's winning whites, and he's cruising with Latinos who make up again, like, about 30% of the electorate. It'll probably be a low turnout election, but there was a guy in that focus group who said, I'm waiting till the last minute before submitting my ballot. And you're seeing that Republicans have mostly you can vote early here in the state, return their ballots at higher rates than Democrats, and also here in the LA mayors race, and it's because they're not enamored with all of these choices, and they want to see in the end who can win. And that's why polls are so valuable here. A lot of this stuff kind of reminds me of the 2020 Democratic primaries. People like in Iowa, for example, like, Elizabeth Warren was winning, and then the New York Times Sienna poll came out showing her, you know, maybe down a little bit. And then she went down. Like, people were, like, looking around like, who can win? And they searched and they searched. And one Democratic operative out here told me this like two months ago. He was like, kind of like serious is kind of like Biden back then. And obviously the question wasn't like, it isn't California, because they're probably going to win whoever Democrats push into the runoff. The 2020 election was like, who can be Trump? But they eventually just looked around at all the candidates, they shopped around, they dated around and settled on the guy who was safe, had experience, by the way, had appealed to non white communities, unlike these other candidates in the race like Biden. And that's what Becerra feels like. Just like they're settling. No one's excited, right? It's hard to find people who are excited. It really is. And people are just sort of like, he seems like he'd at least be a steady hand. The thing with Steyer that's interesting because he's the other Democrat in the hunt in the end is people think of those Fox News viewers probably think this out in the Ohio, that California is a leftist socialist republic. I talked to one smart veteran the other day who was like, California is not a leftist state, it is a liberal state. And that might have been a miscalculation on Sty's part. Not just because he's a billionaire to run as a leftist, but that's a little clunky anyway. But you know, you have a lot of liberal Biden voting Democrats in the Berkeley hills parts of LA who are homeowners. You know, you've got non college Latinos who are skeptical of the promises of lefty politics, even though Joe Bernie Sanders did well with a lot of them back in the day here. And so, you know, it's more of a liberal state than a, you know, Bernie Sanders, Zoran Mamdani state. And that gets to why some of Steyer's, you know, promises might either seem highfalutin, you know, single payer, health care, whatever. Can you really do that? But also, you know, raising taxes on a lot of people that even for Democratic voters out here, that's like, are you really going to do that? So I think that's an interesting dynamic at play as well.
- [28:55]
Sarah Longwell
Well, I want to talk about Tom Steyer because I was again, if I was a betting woman and I'm look, I think your assessment of Becerra being somewhat like Biden, that people kind of just put up their hands and say, like, I don't know, it looks like this guy could be the consensus candidate feels about right. On the other hand, What I did hear in the group was a lot of like, I am holding back and waiting to vote or if I voted, many of them were sty voters. And they really reckon with the fact that the, like, these are the most progressive Democrats in the group. Like, you could hear them, they sounded very progressive. And they're voting for the billionaire hedge fund guy, which they talk through. So, you know, he's been endorsed by our revolution Bernie Sanders advocacy group, a bunch of the unions, progressives. Let's listen to what they said when as they explain why they've either already voted for Steyer or are considering him strongly.
- [29:51]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
The person that I'm leaning towards is Tom Steyer. Even though he's a billionaire and does have certain things in his past that, like investing in prisons and certain things like that he has come out and addressed those and said that that was 30 years ago and that he's trying to be more progressive and trying to be more for the people. Like, I would like to see.
- [30:18]
Peter Hamby
I've already voted in this primary.
- [30:19]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
I voted for Tom Steyer, which is kind of surprising to find myself voting for a billionaire.
- [30:25]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
But
- [30:27]
Sarah Longwell
just based on everything I've read,
- [30:29]
Peter Hamby
it kind of seems like he might be the best shot.
- [30:32]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
I don't have full confidence, if I'm being honest.
- [30:35]
Peter Hamby
It's kind of like you, you, you
- [30:37]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
make the best of what you have.
- [30:39]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
It just to me seems to me like Tom Steyer is actually, if you look at his history, what he's done with his money, there's some good in there. So that's kind of where I'm leaning at.
- [30:46]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
I too was. I was kind of shocked at the big list of like 60 plus candidates. I was like, I don't understand what you need to do to get on that list. But I also voted for Tom Steyer. At first I was on the fence. He was a billionaire. But I kind of thought about it and he had a lot of the endorsements of progressive voting guides, which I usually like. That's kind of like what I go off of as like the shortcut for me personally try to vote for the most progressive people. Starting to come around to this idea that if you have wealth, it does actually allow you to maybe be a little more impartial or act a little bit less dirty politician. Like, I think I've started to come around to the idea that, you know, the wealth might not actually be a bad thing. Like, what I care most about is output and like what you do with the power that you're given.
- [31:37]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
I'm not the Biggest fan of Gavin Newsom. So it's nice to see some people that are coming in that at least channel some good vibes and good energy. I was also weary that he is a billionaire. But you know what, at the same time, it's kind of in my mind that like, well, Trump has all this money. This guy, he also talks a lot of business, but it seems like he's doing, he's using his money for overall good. So maybe it's kind of like the mindset like, okay, well, maybe this guy can, like, he can get stuff done and he knows money hopefully better than Trump.
- [32:13]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
I'm still kind of deciding right now. I do like a lot of what Katie Porter has done. I'm not really stoked on Tom Steyer being another billionaire trying to run for governor of the state, but at this point, it's going to be between obviously one of the Democrat candidates, but still kind of doing my, my research on that Tom Steyer.
- [32:33]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 5
I agree with what other people have said. I don't trust a billionaire to be like, you don't know what it's like to be just a normal ass person living in California, like, shut the up.
- [32:43]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
I definitely think like the big things, you know, it, it seems like, you know, he's really trying to help like, like the, you know, the little people, you know, it's just like normal, average, you know, California citizens rather than trying to, you know, really benefit off like, big business, you know, a really big thing that, that I thought is that the UAE is really trying to help housing. Like where I live, there definitely needs to be like a lot more houses, a lot more apartments built. And also you also trying to, trying to fix homeless problem. Again, where I live, there's definitely a big homeless issue.
- [33:19]
Sarah Longwell
All right, so are you surprised as I was because I was surprised going into this group how much people who think billionaires shouldn't exist were kind of talking themselves into Tom Steyer.
- [33:32]
Peter Hamby
Yeah, that is interesting, actually. And by the way, this focus group stuff is so rich because we get these polls and it's hard to get like on the ground, man on the street reporting in California because the state's so big. Like, you know, in the Iowa caucuses, there's a million reporters walking around just talking about to people and getting this kind of color and this is valuable. So I think that suggests that Sty's spending is working first of all, that people have been able to reckon with the idea that they're queasy about billionaires but willing to vote for him. Two people that don't think billionaires should exist, by the way, who have not weighed in or Bernie Sanders and AOC who have not endorsed. But one thing, I actually have some mail pieces here which I think the people on YouTube and you dorks would like. The I think Steyer, when he jumped in the race, it was, I'm a progressive, I'm going to bring radical systemic change. But people knew he's a billionaire. As the race has kind of shifted toward the end where you have Becerra and Stier as the choice, I think it's kind of helped Steyer shape a little bit of a closing argument in the last month. Because, and you see this because of California's pretty rigorous campaign disclosure laws. You watch the TV ads, streaming ads, at the end of them, it says in big text, paid for by. And so you'll see an attack ad from a Becerra independent expenditure attacking Tom Steyer. And it says, funded by PG&E, the big power utility that Steyr wants to break up, funded by Chevron, funded by the association of Realtors. And so voters, while they're seeing the attack negative messaging, they're also seeing that these big corporations are paying for it. You know, Steyer is a billionaire, but just as paid for by Tom Steyer. And so anyway, this, I got one, by the way, mail piece, not that Sire's not going negative, this mail piece attacking Becerra as corrupt, incompetent. It uses Susan Rice calling him an idiot on Twitter and it says he's the problem because he's funded by these corporate interests. And Steyer is out there saying, I might be a billionaire, but the billionaires want Javier Becerra. And there's an argument to be made there. I mean, all of the sort of institutional, corporate big business players in California are want Becerra to win and are funding his campaign and are funding his ies. And then you've got Steyer now with this messaging basically, like you can tell a lot about someone by looking at who's for them and who's against them. It was pretty good messaging. And it says for Tom, teachers, nurses, environmental leaders against Tom, Big Oil, big Utilities, Trump. And then as you said, like all the endorsements are here on the back. It's like, you know, the Teachers association, huge union endorsement here, Unite Here, Federation of Labor, aflco, AFSCME and then environmental groups, obviously, because he's a big time climate activist, the Jane Fonda climate pack. And so all these stamps of approval are actually really valuable in California. And in part because the Ballot is so long too. And so people don't. There's just so much on the ballot. No matter where you live. The, the mayor, judges, the lieutenant governor, no one knows who's running for lg. I do, but no one else does. Attorney General. And so people walk into the ballot booth and they read the LA Times endorsements or they look at the mail that, the last piece of mail that came and said, oh, the teachers are for Styer, I'll vote for Styr. So that stuff is valuable. But the polls down the, down the stretch still show becerra with a 5, 6, 7 point lead. We'll see if Steyer's money can help with the GOTV operation and get some of those ballots in for people like that in that focus group who seem to like it.
- [37:09]
Sarah Longwell
I do not treat the focus groups like polls. I try really hard. Yeah, but I do, when I get a full group, you know, or a full couple of groups, and the vast majority of them prefer Styer, I do go, okay, well, maybe he's going to make a late surge here and have a little upset or I'll at least keep an eye on it. I'm not predicting it, but I'm going to keep an eye on it. I one, one last thing on this before we move on to Katie Porter. To me, it is interesting, especially because here in D.C. national Democrats are really going hard at billionaires. But listening to voters sort of rationalize it sounds to me like the way Republican voters talk about Donald Trump. Because one of the things that Republican voters say all the time about Trump is he's already rich. And so he's doing this job out of the goodness of his heart. Like the, and this is, this is, this is the way a lot of them sounded. Right? He's a billionaire and that's good because then people can't, he can't be bought or he won't be corrupt. And that's what people said about Donald Trump. Now, I'm not saying Steyer will be like that. I just think people have the ability, no matter how much people say they hate billionaires, people will always defend the billionaires. They're good. They're good billionaires on their side if like the options given and they have sort of ways in their head of making peace with it. All right, so I want to talk about Katie Porter just because I'm sort of fascinated by the, the rise and fall of Katie Porter, the former congresswoman from Orange county, who's currently the third highest polling Democrat because she was such a big Resistance star in Trump 1.0. And there were some, though, unfortunately, the polls suggest not enough appetite for her campaign, including in this focus group. Let's listen.
- [38:58]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
I like Porter, actually, but I realized that she sort of shot herself in the foot a little bit with this video that showed her temper. I don't happen to believe that a bad temper should be disqualifying if you're running a state the size of California. I mean, it's the country, you know, and she's very, very well informed and very good on the fiscal side.
- [39:24]
Sarah Longwell
I think that's a great example of sexism that exists in politics. I think if that were a man doing this, like Governor Newsom, that wouldn't
- [39:33]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 5
be in the news at all.
- [39:34]
Peter Hamby
I think we reached it tough on our women.
- [39:37]
Sarah Longwell
I think having strong women who are expressing their thoughts eloquently is more important than looking at a moment where somebody has a moment with their staff.
- [39:45]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
I ended up voting for Katie Porter, but it was a complete tie in my mind in a way. I kind of regret not voting the Tom Steyer because I think he has a better chance of winning, really. But I just went with my gut at the time. I think both of those candidates, they give me a sense that they're genuine. You know, I went through the whole billionaire thing, but, you know, I mean,
- [40:10]
Peter Hamby
you look at a guy like Trump
- [40:11]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
who's a billionaire, and it's. It's obvious in two seconds that he's, you know, complete con artist, and you can't trust them.
- [40:19]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 1
Katie Porter was in my top three as well. She kind of felt like almost like a female Trump, but not. Not Trump. At the same time, like, she seemed like someone who would really speak her mind, tell things how she sees it. Big, like, soccer mom attitude. And she does feel like someone who would get things done, whether. Whether I thought she's the best for California or not. That was my debate. But I did see her as an overall positive candidate who perhaps could get things done.
- [40:52]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 5
I think it would be great to have a female in charge for once. She's not a raper. So, like, that's good news as far as we know, right? I don't know what to believe anymore. I do. Like, she's from Orange county, if I remember correctly. I looked into a lot of a record, but I know that she has been pretty fierce against Republicans and not just to be combative. I know that she is trying to push some stuff over the line. I don't remember anything recently because all the other fires in front of the House Right. Although that video came out with her like yelling and screaming at people that I wasn't that fond of. But all things considered, if all she does is yell and scream at interns every once in a while and is not a raper, then I mean, that's a good start, right?
- [41:40]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
I paid attention roughly to Katie Porter for a while. She's been around and I think that her message of really wanting to cut income tax to middle income earners and really kind of taxing big businesses, taxing more of the wealthy, I think it was great. And it seems like kind of like what Rachel was saying. She has been kind of fighting this fight, going against the Republicans, really trying to keep what I think the majority of Californian values are. So, I mean, she's kind of front runner for me at this point. But again, I'm still kind of doing all the research.
- [42:11]
Sarah Longwell
Before we move on to the LA mayoral race, I just want to ask, why does Katie Porter, who was such a resistance star and had her whiteboard. I mean, I remember the rise of Katie Porter and I remember being like, I like the way that she's being, you know, make doing a good job of explaining this stuff to people. But now, you know, she's on the verge of losing her second statewide run. Why is that?
- [42:31]
Peter Hamby
The videos are the reason. And I'm surprised she wasn't able to come back from that actually, because if you've got voters searching around for an option, she is right there. I thought too, she was kind of a cringy resistance person with the whiteboard for a while. And what was the book she was reading at the State of the Union? Remember, she was like photographed reading the Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fuck. And I was like, okay, this is performative. I actually met her in person a couple times. I was doing Alex Michelson's show out here in LA before he was on CNN as their California anchor honcho. And I met her in the green room after the 2024 election. And you know, she really is like a law professor and Elizabeth Warren protege who didn't have a lot of friends in Congress. But that's okay, and is smart, really smart on pocketbook affordability issues at a time when that is called for. The thing that was interesting about the videos was I remember texting someone who was working for her and I was like, you should just reframe your messaging now. Like, we need to send A to Sacramento. Yeah. And like, why not leave it? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, like Lena, whatever. And like, that's not me calling Her a. That's saying, like, this is some messaging that could work. Not that word exactly. The issue is, again, money. And so her fundraising kind of dried up after that. And she is a good fundraiser, by the way. But for her congressional campaigns in Orange County, I think people. She just was not able to recover. If she was able to be on television and be in people's faces and on their screens, on. On social media after that, reminding people of why they liked her in the first place as a candidate, I think it could have happened. She's been really. She's been one of the best people in the debates. She's been more substantive than anyone else.
- [44:22]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
She's.
- [44:23]
Peter Hamby
By the way, she's been calling out Javier Becerra for having no plans. Like, Javier Becerra showed up, and he was like, hello, I'm a Democrat. What's your plan for AI? Well, I'll figure that out. What's your plan for tax policy? I'll figure that out. What's your plan for saving Hollywood? I'll figure that out. Like, Katie Porter has, like, you know, a plan for everything. Or at least like, can. Can talk about a plan for everything. Her and Mayhan, I think, were probably the two most substantive candidates, but you just need money in California. And that has been her challenge since those videos of her screaming at staffers came out.
- [44:54]
Sarah Longwell
I'm not sure if it would have worked or not, but with something like that, you know, people are in the mood for a fighter. And if she did just be like, I would have immediately started being like, I will fight Donald Trump as hard as I fight my interns. Like, I will. I will take that energy right at Republicans. She might have gone somewhere. That's how you got it. You got to do it. All right, so I want to close with a brief sort of sidebar on the Los Angeles mayoral race, which is, I think, the part of this conversation you're the most excited about. Mayor Karen Bass is running for reelection, and she has two credible challengers. One of them is the. My producer here has. Actor. Has said actor. No, no, Young man. He was a reality tv. Even star would be doing it. He is the equivalent of Sha Duffy from the Real World. Okay. Spencer Pratt was on the. The Hills was not. Which. I don't know. It was a reality TV show. Go look it up. And he has the support of many Republicans. Spencer Brat. And he may make the general election against Karen Bass. The California Democrats we talked to were predictably aghast at this. But since he's generating online buzz around the country. In fact, Trump is threatening, offering to support him, endorse him. I want to just play, actually what a group of recent Georgia Republicans, not California, but Georgia Republicans, had to say about Pratt. I don't know if anyone's been noticing Spencer Pratt for the mayor, for LA
- [46:26]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
is. It's pretty freaking awesome, I'll be honest,
- [46:30]
Sarah Longwell
out of left field.
- [46:32]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
But he's very smart and I know, you know, he's not who we all
- [46:36]
Sarah Longwell
remember him, but yeah, I think he's doing great.
- [46:39]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 3
He smoked the debates.
- [46:41]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, he was wonderful.
- [46:42]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 2
Yeah, yeah, he tore her up.
- [46:45]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 5
I get excited about the non traditional
- [46:49]
Sarah Longwell
conservatives, the non traditional Republicans.
- [46:51]
California Democrat Focus Group Participant 4
So I think the disruptor profile, which is fun and interesting and would just cause a little ruckus on the other
- [46:58]
Sarah Longwell
side, that's what I want to happen. All right, Hammy, before I let you cook on Spencer Pratt, I am just going to say I wrote a piece for the Bulwark the other day where I talked about how in the focus groups when I asked people who they'd like to see run for president on the Republican side, a lot of voters throw out Candace Owens. And I got like really dumped on online because people were like, no, I don't believe you. I don't believe your focus groups. And I just want to be like, guys, number one, Donald Trump is the President of the United States. He was the host of the Apprentice and, and an all around scoundrel and Page Six, you know, ridiculous person. And he has been President of the United States twice. And I, if you doubt me on the Candace Owens, I give you as another piece of evidence, Republicans in Georgia watching the California, the LA mayoral debate just because they think Spencer Pratt is a lot of fun to watch do his thing. This, my friends, is the American voter. It's not my fault. But you go ahead, Peter. What, how is the Spencer Pratt thing happening?
- [48:03]
Peter Hamby
Well, that, that's so fascinating. The obviously Spencer Pratt was climbing attentionally, not yet in the polls before the debate where he really had a breakout moment against Karen Bass, the incumbent mayor who's very unpopular, and Nithya Raman, the sort of left sort of DSA city council woman who has really failed to launch, but he was rising because of his social media presence and everyone focuses on the AI videos that his supporters have made that have helped him go mega viral and caught the attention like it's had this network effect where so Spencer Pratt's social media content and the stuff he's been creating, by the way too, he's not just a reality star ever since he was on the hills. He kind of has embraced social media, TikTok, Snapchat, Instagram, X, Twitter over the years, YouTube and has been kind of like a wife, guy, dad. And been posting videos on his Snapchat account about the hummingbirds at his house in the Palisades, but before it burned down, about crystals. Just LA stuff. But the reality thing is important. It taught him early on in his life about causing conflict and attention and how those two are correlated. But his native social media skills are really important. And so the AI videos in his social media about turning a camera onto la, the extremely visible squalor, homelessness, slow police response times, he's. He's not wrong either about a lot of this stuff and that that gets to where this is different than Trump. I think he's more palatable to voters in LA than Donald Trump. And I think there will be people who voted for Kamala Harris and Joe Biden who will vote for Spencer Pratt. Not a ton, but I think there will. And some polling data I can tell you about shows that. But, you know, it's just LA is so spread out and the homelessness thing is, is so endemic that, yeah, you do step over poop and drug addicts at the playground when you're getting coffee. You drive by it every day. It's like a billboard for the failures of Democratic leadership in cities. Just any human being is embodying that. And so the out of state thing is real, though. So most of his donors now are from out of state and there are lots of rich people giving to him. Jeannie Buss, owner of the Lakers, him, Saban and his wife, who are longtime Democratic donors, have given money to Spencer Pratt here in Los Angeles in part because he's appealing to the Jewish vote out here that has moved a little bit to the right along with the Persian vote. It's kind of interesting. So you've got some traditional Democrats giving you money, but a lot of the attention on social media is from Fox News, from podcasters, from social media and Twitter. And it's reaching people in Georgia who probably would love to see him speak at CPAC in a couple of years. I find that interesting. But what the thing that I want you to think about, Sarah, is, and I have a harder time convincing more purebred Democrats this, but I personally know, I live on the west side of la. I know lots of people who own their houses, who have gardeners and have nannies who are voting for Spencer Pratt. It's a. Seems like a mostly white phenomenon here in la in A city that has a ton of Latino voters. We'll see if Latinos vote for him. But he is talking about a lot of things that Democrats like. Sorry, I don't. Are you Democrat? That never Trump Democrat, whatever moderate types who want government to work and want Democrats to win. He's talking about what Democrats were recommending a lot of them after the 2024 election. We need to be closer to the median voter on salient real world issues like the economy, crime and immigration, and less focused. And this gets. This reminds me of the Simon Bazelon project deciding to win. I just pulled this up voter and he did this long term deep dive study him and some colleagues about getting Democratic candidates closer in their views to the median voter. That's how you win. That's how you win Pennsylvania again. And you know, one of the big outcomes here is that voters see Democrats as insufficiently prioritizing issues like the cost of living, the economy, immigration, taxes and crime. And like crime and public safety are just what local government should do. And Spencer Pratt is not just talking about that. He's using video content to do it in very emotional, powerful way and using storytelling. Say what you will about him, yes, he's a little bit of a huckster. He says controversial things. Is he ready to be mayor of Los Angeles, which is ungovernable by the way, anyway, like probably not. But he has a message and it's about stuff that people can relate to. And it is the story of Spencer Pratt is as much about the failure of his two opponents to demonstrate to voters that Democrats know how to govern a city. One, you have evidence that Karen Bass doesn't know how to do that because she was not here during the fires and left when there were warnings about them and street homelessness. While she points to it being down, other studies show it's up. Violent crime is down, homicides are down. She's not a great storyteller and there's just evidence that she has abandoned the city and she is stuck at like 30 in the polls. She can win the. She can win the general election because she is a Democrat with non white support and labor support. Especially if she runs against Spencer Pratt. Be harder against the other one, Nithya Romney. And then Nithya Raman jumps in the race and she, Sarah is like the kind of Democrat that I don't know you and I might roll their eyes at. Like they're good on social media. She's from Silver Lake. A lot of her support is like the entertainment industry, you know, and she has talked in very academic terms about, you know, abundance stuff, which we need. Our sidewalks in the city are broken and no one can fix them. When she got in the race, she was like, I'll fix the sidewalks. And my wife was like, she's got my vote. But abundance things, social justice, a tolerant approach to homelessness. Not the most talented candidate from a skill perspective, but would be a good mayor, I think. But still, Spencer Pratt is out there grabbing people and pulling them over by just pointing at things that are wrong and visualizing them and be being constantly posting. He is an attention magnet. That's why he's compared to Donald Trump. The thing is different is he's not. Look, he calls Karen Bass, Karen Basura, which is Spanish for garbage. He talks. He talks in nicknames. He can be, you know, can be mean, but he's like, not. He does things with a smile sometimes. He doesn't talk about, like, immigration and national issues. He's not like, divisive. He's really focused on. Sorry, he's divisive, clearly, but he's really focused on Los Angeles and not national social issues. And the. The way to demonstrate this, that I'll say is in 2024, Donald Trump against Kamala Harris in the city of Los Angeles, not the county, got like 24% of the vote. Kamala just rolled. Obviously, it's a liberal city. Spencer Pratt is polling at like 30% now, which means independents and Democrats are. It's not just Republicans that are supporting him. The city is 14% registered Republican. But he's trying to run as like, appealing to more Democrats and independents. Homeowners, moms. Again, it might be a mostly white phenomenon, but he's outperforming Donald Trump already in the polls, and so people are responding to his law and order messaging. Not everyone sees him as maga, despite the fact that Donald Trump said he likes him and his opponents want to want him to be seen as a MAGA person. And by the way, he might end up speaking at CPAC and those Georgia voters might want him to run for president. And maybe he'll go hang out on Candace Owens podcast after this election, which would be very hard for him to win in the general. It's just, I think that Democrats in other parts of the country need to understand that it doesn't feel like Democrats have done enough to fix these obvious problems with police response times, homelessness, and into the vacuum walks Spencer Pratt. If it was Rick Caruso, I think Rick Caruso would be running away with it now. Spencer Pratt is A reality star who is a registered Republican. He's got baggage, and people don't know if he's prepared or not. But the fact that he is competitive with two serious Democrats is an embarrassment to the Democratic Party.
- [56:24]
Sarah Longwell
This is where I'm just going to quickly offer the difference between Sarah Longwell's analysis and Sarah Longwell, the person which people often have. Have difficult time distinguishing. Like, I find Spencer Pratt and the Hills of it all, because I am of a generation. You called me a millennial earlier, and that's nice. I am an elder millennial. I'm actually a Zennial.
- [56:45]
Peter Hamby
Me too. I'm a cusper.
- [56:46]
Sarah Longwell
I. I didn't like, watch. Watch the Hills, but it was so omnipresent.
- [56:50]
Peter Hamby
It was ambient. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [56:52]
Sarah Longwell
So I'm like, get out. I'm. I hate the. The fact that. Look, Theo von Road Rules, Sean Duffy, Rachel Campos Duffy. Different seasons of the Real World, okay? Joe Rogan was on Fear Factor. Like, these people all came from this reality TV world. And I lament that. I lament that. In our politics, however, Donald Trump has unleashed a whole new way of. And. And because we now live in a very different. Somebody should write a book about this. In fact, I did. It's called how to Eat an Elephant. One Voter at a Time. And one of the things I go through is how different this new communications environment is. And so the message, which, by the way, I do craft throughout the book based on what I hear from voters. And the fact is, number one, people care about affordability and their costs, whether that's health care, whether that's, you know, how much they're paying for groceries and gas and everything. Like, that is the number one issue everybody talks about. Second issue everyone talks about is they want to feel safe. And whether that's immigration or crime, voters want to feel safe. They cannot access compassion, whether it's on immigration or whether it is on criminal justice reform or even homelessness. Like, they can feel compassionate toward homeless people, but if they feel unsafe in their city, they will vote for somebody to clean up the homeless problem when they feel like it's reached a point where they feel unsafe. Like, that is just true. They want to deprioritize the things that they care much less about. It's not that they, like, don't like trans people or anything else. Like, they're probably. They're also just like, is this the thing we should be talking about? Like, they're probably. They're pro us being a diverse country and everything else, but they're like, do we have to focus on this all the time? I would like to focus on the other two things, the problem. So Spencer Pratt isn't for me, but I see why what he is doing is resonating.
- [58:47]
Peter Hamby
I'm glad you said that because like I'm not like rooting for any of these as a citizen. I want my city, my adopted city to be great. By lending this analysis to Spencer Pratt, some people on Twitter have been like, you're rooting for Spencer. I'm not. I think he's a fascinating political figure for the reasons that you mentioned in this era of Democratic politics when Democrats are running away from peak woke 2020 stuff. And and your next. I don't know if you've done this already, but I would love to see your focus groups in, in Texas right now because James Talarico is on camera tonight. All of the things saying all the great, all of the things that Simon Bazelon and deciding to win recommended against talking about how white skin is a virus and you know, people like his campaign is vegan and there are six genders. It feels so removed from the day to day concerns of everyday voters. Nithya Rahman, the DSA sort of Democratic candidate running, she's one of her problems is she's trying to be DSA left but also resistance left and abundance. She doesn't know like who she's programming for sometimes, but she talked about defunding the police in 2020 and has since backed away from that. And so there's that there's the substance of it in the issue thing. But to your earlier point about reality television, after the debate, the one and only debate on NBC4 out here, I was watching it live and Spencer came armed with lots of facts. There were some fact checks that where the like local news was like, Karen Bass is lying. Spencer Pratt's telling the truth. Which like, think about that. Like, like news outfits were saying that Karen Bass was lying about wind speeds and Spencer Pratt was actually the accurate one. So that that's a difference with Donald Trump too I gotta say is like he did bring some like actual factual analysis to the debate. But after the debate ended he did a postgame interview on stage at the debate and then he like broke the fourth wall like a reality guy would. And he looks at the camera and he goes, return your ballots. Spencer Pratt from mayor.compeace. like he just like broke the fourth wall. And you're like, he's so he just gravitates toward the camera in a way that is fascinating and the other post 2024 analysis along with Democrats need to stop talking about radical chic champagne topics on social media and more about everyday life for voters. The other piece of analysis was get away from traditional media and focus on new media. And again, I wrote this in my piece about Spencer Pratt a few weeks ago. He is genuinely, I really think this the first influencer candidate, the first self actualized influencer candidate in full that we have seen on the American political scene. He's emerged directly from the Internet connected phone camera native to vertical video attention magnet attention hacker in full and all the traditional media stuff comes after that. And he's been able to swallow everyone's attention and mind share because of that. And that's really important. When Nithya Raman got in the race, the New York Times somewhat imperfectly called her or said is she the Zoran Mamdani of la? The Zoran Mamdani of LA is Spencer Pratt. And take away the issues, right? Like obviously, ideologically could not be farther apart. Substantively could not be farther apart. But the person who is bringing people to his side of the argument, not that he's going to win, is Spencer Pratt. He's the one doing the digital videos. He's the one constantly making content. He's the one out there talking to voters on their terms and not relying on produced media and not relying on traditional media. And like Zoran has a message and understands the modern information environment and that's why he is likely going to outperform Donald Trump in the primary on Tuesday. Again, if he makes the top two, he'll go to the general. It'll be very hard for him to beat a Democrat if Nithya Raman goes to the general. Karen Bass is so unpopular that she can. Karen Bass can get reelected, which might seem improbable given the fire example from a few years ago, but at the very least Spencer Pratt has made an impression and he, like us, is an xennial and it feels like he's not going anywhere even if he loses this race. Although he did say he's leaving the city if he does lose the race. So maybe he is going somewhere.
- [63:10]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, would not shock me at all if this is, and this is just the last thing I'll say because this is why I sort of wrote the Candace thing was not to suggest that Candace Owens is somehow going to be president United States. I'm just saying voters throw her name out because the world that we are moving into is one for this and I don't like it. But it is what is happening that the new media environment demands the ability to communicate in new ways. Now, sometimes you can get a momdani and people who figured that out in the political context, but a lot of other people are going to do it because they understand the media environment. Donald Trump did this too, right? Donald Trump had been on camera his whole life. He knows how to work the camera. He knows how to do to dominate the attention economy. And you are going to see more and more people from the podcast casting space like I don't think Candace runs, but like Tucker Carlson very well might, Megan Kelly might at some point. Why? Because they know how to talk all the time, communicate all the time, have a position, defend it. And that is increasingly what people are looking for. Also they know how to do light entertainment on top of the politics, which people also want. Now, it's bad, but that's what they want.
- [64:24]
Peter Hamby
It is. And that speaking of California, just to cinch this conversation up, that what you just said is an argument for Gavin Newson because he can talk, talk, talk, talk, talk all the time and do all kinds of content, go in any space and defend his record and talk, talk, talk, talk, talk to the point where he rolls over reporters and interviewers almost like Donald Trump and you can't keep up with what he's saying. He obviously has other baggage. But that is an argument for Gavin Newsom as well.
- [64:46]
Sarah Longwell
That's true. Although he's not the only person who's going to emerge in this field that's going to be a great communicator. I mean, I am watching Pete Buttigieg is going also walks into and I, I personally think he's considerably better than anybody else. Like I think he leaves as a community from a communication standpoint, leaves people in the dust. I think you do have a little bit of a problem with his like to the extent that Gavin's Achilles heel is both, you know, Guilfoyle me once, shame on him. Guilfoyle me twice, shame on Don Jr. Or whatever. But like the bear rug picture of him and Kimberly Guilfoyle will be everywhere. And also just being the governor of California, that is a liability for him. On the other hand, you know, people to judge, you know, Democrats right now, they think that their candidate has to be a straight white man, which is tough because most of the top tier candidates or many of the top tier candidates in the Democratic Party are black, brown women or Pete Buttigieg. And so, you know, that is, that is, that is one of their, one of the things they're going to have to contend with. And Gavin Newsom does meet that particular bar.
- [66:00]
Peter Hamby
Just one thought there. If you look at polling, Gavin Newsom, the people that want a white man are often black voters who want to win. This happened with Biden.
- [66:08]
Sarah Longwell
That is 100% true.
- [66:10]
Peter Hamby
But. But Gavin Newsom, other than Kamala Harris, who. And I think that's a lot in AM I D. If you look at who's doing well in polls with national black voters or in South Carolina, Gavin Newsom's up there and like, part of it's because he's like, he's obviously got some challenges, but like, he's famous. He's been in the public eye, but he knows how to go on in front of every screen. He can talk about sports over here, he can talk about climate over here. He can talk about tech over here. So the, A lot of. I just want to be clear about this, that the people who want a white male candidate are often not like white male liberals in these states. It's voters of color who understand the country we live in and our history. And that's one reason they rallied to Joe Biden, because he was Obama's partner, but they thought him. Thought that he could win elections. And the Warren example in 2020 is another one. There were a lot of women after the Hillary Clinton failure of 2016 in Iowa. I remember when she was peaking who were like, I love her. I just don't think she can win because of the Hillary thing. And so women also, I think, gravitate toward male candidates. Performative white men, however, they love their diverse candidates.
- [67:23]
Sarah Longwell
I will never forget, I will genuinely never forget that when it looked like Joe Biden was going to drop out like we was, it was after the debate and like people preacher and I was testing who did people want to see? How did they want to see it? And I did several groups of black women and they were like, it cannot be Kamala. It can't. We can't. We can't do that. The country's too racist. And also it was like they personally felt that it was going to be like, awful for them and awful to watch what they were going to do to her. And I. That really stuck with me and has stuck with me subsequently. The Democrats do have sort of two minds where they are. They are sure that the country is too racist and sexist to elect anybody, but also think that we need people who are diverse. And so, you know, that's. Democrats can sort that out just like they will in the LA mayoral race. And this governor's race. We will keep watching. Peter Hamby, thank you so much for joining us today. Sorry we went over this was a long, fun conversation. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. We'll be back next week. Don't forget to rate, review, subscribe, do all the things. See you guys.