S6 Ep46: Patrick Svitek: Texas & Maine Swing Voters Sound Off

Summary

The Focus Group Podcast – S6 Ep46: Patrick Svitek: Texas & Maine Swing Voters Sound Off

Date: June 20, 2026
Host: Sarah Longwell (Publisher, The Bulwark)
Guest: Patrick Svitek (National Political Reporter, CNN)
Link: The Focus Group Podcast Episode

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EPISODE OVERVIEW

This episode offers a deep dive into two of the highest-stakes Senate races of 2026—in Texas and Maine—through the rarely heard voices of actual swing voters. Host Sarah Longwell and guest Patrick Svitek break down what matters to these voters, how "character" and "baggage" are being weighed versus party loyalty, and the growing trend of voters holding their noses to back nominees they're ambivalent or even deeply skeptical about. The conversation also explores the changing standards both parties have for their own candidates, and why both Texas and Maine races now feature uniquely vulnerable front-runners.

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KEY DISCUSSION POINTS & INSIGHTS

1. Upcoming Congressional Primaries: The National Context

(02:20–06:14)

• Svitek highlights competitive House primaries in New York (with Mayor Zoran Mamdani's outsider endorsements), a big-spending Maryland Democratic primary (David Trone vs. April McClain Delaney), and ideological divides sharpening around issues like Israel.
  • "Mamdani... is clearly trying to put his ideological imprint on the New York City House delegation..." — Patrick Svitek, (02:47)
• Notable tension between DSA-aligned progressives and establishment incumbents.
• AI industry flooding certain races with outside money is also flagged as a new dynamic.

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2. Texas Senate Race: Swing Voters Disillusioned With the GOP Options

(06:14–13:49, 16:46–25:15)

Trump Disapprovers & Republican Malaise

• The Texas focus group included 2024 Trump voters who now express disappointment with his presidency and are skeptical of Republican governance.
  • "He's been there too long... we need new leadership." — Texas Voter 4 (09:40)
• Genuine 'change fatigue' with Greg Abbott; disapproval is not deeply policy-based, but emotional and about leadership longevity.

Ken Paxton: Scandals, Cynicism, & Reluctant Support

• Voters voice shock and resignation over Paxton’s primary win, seeing him as corrupt but perceiving their options as poor.
  • “Are you kidding me? I'm not a fan of either of them, but... what's your options here?" — Texas Voter 3 (09:17–09:18)
• For some, even with discomfort, Paxton's conservatism is a default draw; others are frustrated but adrift.
• GOP in Texas is largely rallying around Paxton, with notable exception of John Cornyn, whose limited dissent might matter to a very small bloc of party donors or independents.

James Talarico: The 'Lesser Evil' Democratic Option

• Talarico is heavily defined by Republican attacks, especially over his views on transgender issues ("God is non-binary"), which have penetrated even among anti-Paxton swing voters.
  • "He just kind of makes himself seem like a better person... but I would agree that he's probably the lesser of two evils if you had to choose." — Texas Voter 2 (14:21)
• Host notes: The Republican messaging "has land. It is imprinted like ducklings on their mother. Like it is imprinted in people’s brains." — Sarah Longwell (16:46)
• Yet, many in the group say they will vote for Talarico anyway, for lack of a better alternative.

*Electoral Dynamics:

• Talarico’s "baggage" has become baked-in much earlier than Beto O’Rourke’s was in 2018, partially due to a hard-fought Democratic primary and aggressive GOP messaging.
• Paxton’s legal and ethical troubles might depress GOP turnout, but the party plans aggressive, negative attacks to activate their base and prominent backing from Trump.

“It’s all about issue salience... For some, [trans issues] is maybe number 15 on their list.” — Patrick Svitek (20:22)

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3. Maine Senate Race: Voters Torn Between Disillusionment and Disgust

(26:16–35:00, 40:48–55:07)

Susan Collins: From Trusted Moderate to Out-of-Touch Incumbent

• Focus group includes past Collins voters now feeling betrayed—citing her Supreme Court votes (notably for Kavanaugh), perceived bipartisanship, and personal stories that once bound them to her.
  • "She acted like that was not necessarily going to be her vote... and then, all of a sudden, she did vote for him." — Maine Voter 7 (31:28)
• Many have only recently shifted away from her, and cite the need for a change and anger at the state of national politics and Trumpian excesses.
  • "They only just now have decided that her experience or the votes that she's taken... they are mad about that in a new way." — Sarah Longwell (33:40)

Graham Platner: Baggage, Desperation, and Reluctant Support

• Platner faces a drumbeat of negative stories: tattoo with controversial symbols, toxic social media posts, allegations of personal misconduct, and a damning NYT report on violent behavior.
• Many voters are aware of his past, some aren’t—but the consensus is anxiety about what shoe may drop next.
  • "As long as nothing comes out that's prosecutable against him, then you know what? He has my vote and I wish him well." — Maine Voter 1 (43:02)
  • "It's crazy to me how ... when somebody like this comes out and tries to do good... all of a sudden, like, everything just comes ping. All comes piling behind them." — Maine Voter 5 (47:36)
• However, most show willingness to overlook scandals because they want a check on Trump, are angry at Collins, and see this as an exceptional political moment.
• For some, Platner’s willingness to own up to (some) past misconduct and stories of "change" are slightly redeeming; others perceive him as a "bad person" and are grudging in support.

Democratic Standards, GOP Tolerance, and Voter Psychology

• Deep discussion on Democratic voters’ internal struggle to accept flawed candidates, often referencing how the GOP has normalized much worse.
  • "They're just not going to be shamed by Republicans calling out someone's baggage." — Sarah Longwell (38:56)
• National Democrats, including Chuck Schumer, remain cautious in their backing of Platner, fearing further revelations.
  • "He didn't even say Graham Platner’s name. He just said, 'We're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate majority.'" — Patrick Svitek (50:36)
• Both Sarah and Patrick agree that the longstanding 'when they go low, we go high’ philosophy among Democrats is eroding, prompted by a perceived double standard: “Republicans have certainly... put on a tutorial for Democrats on how to swallow reservations about candidates and unify for the sake of the general election.” — Patrick Svitek (54:50)

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MEMORABLE MOMENTS & QUOTES

• "There was just a feeling of like, he's been there too long. Yeah, I'm over the new leadership...it's just, this guy's been there too long and we need new leadership." — Patrick Svitek on Texas anti-Abbott sentiment (06:40)
• “One could argue that in the case of Paxton, who claims to be a devout Christian...versus Graham Platner, who's basically like, yeah, guys, I was a bad guy...” — Sarah Longwell (53:54)
• “I do think something that I've been picking up from voters is...he's still got my vote, but I'm nervous about what else might be out there.” — Sarah Longwell (43:46)
• "He seems genuinely kind of like he could be a bad person." — Maine Voter 7 on Platner (48:16)
• “For the individual candidates, whether it is a sweet guy like Talarico or a very damaged, full of baggage guy like Platner, they kind of have this like, not only is it not a normal time, but they're like, do you see what's happening? Why won't somebody stand up and do something about that?” — Sarah Longwell (36:40)

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TIMESTAMPS FOR KEY SECTIONS

• NY, MD, & National Primary Races: 02:18–06:14
• Texas Voters on Paxton: 08:23–11:30
• Attitudes toward Talarico: 13:49–16:46
• Defining issues: Transgender policy, ‘normalcy’ test: 16:46–20:22
• Comparing Talarico to Beto O'Rourke: 20:53–23:35
• Base turnout, Paxton's vulnerabilities & GOP strategy: 24:10–25:15
• Maine Voters on Susan Collins: 27:14–32:22
• Maine Voters on Graham Platner (general views): 41:10–43:46
• Focus on Platner’s personal scandals: 45:28–50:04
• Hypocrisy, standards, and the new partisan calculus: 51:36–55:07

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CONCLUSION: WHAT SWING VOTERS REVEAL IN 2026

Both the Texas and Maine focus groups lay bare a crashing of partisan norms:

• Scandal and “baggage” are no longer disqualifying; voters are picking what they see as the lesser evil—or simply the candidate who will check the party they most distrust.
• Democratic voters are, for the first time, beginning to match the collective tolerance for flawed candidates that Republicans have exercised since Trump’s rise.
• Voter anger at “the system,” their own parties, and a feeling that “these are not normal times” are driving the willingness to overlook past behavior in favor of what feels like the urgent work of checking the other side’s power.
• Yet, with both Platner and Paxton, many voters express worry about what future scandals might surface—a persistent sense of unease, even when making a decision they feel is necessary.

This episode serves as a clear window into the rationalizations, resentments, and calculations being made by the swing voters who will decide the 2026 midterms—a shift driven more by emotional fatigue and existential dread than by traditional “issues.”

Transcript

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[Sarah Longwell]

Amazon.com I do think something that I've been picking up from voters is like in Maine specifically is a he's still got my vote, but I'm nervous about what else might be out there.

[Maine Voter 1]

As long as nothing comes out that's prosecutable against him, then you know what? He has my vote and and and I and I wish him well.

[Sarah Longwell]

Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus Group podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark and this week we're covering two of the most talked about races this year, both because of their massive implications for the country and because of the massive personalities on the ballot talking about the Senate races in Texas and Maine. The this is the episode you've been waiting for. So we've been talking about these races for a while, but for the first time you're going to hear from the kinds of voters in Texas and Maine who are actually going to decide these elections. But you got to stick around to the end for the main stuff. I also want to survey the landscape on some other quirky down ballot primaries. My guest today is Patrick Zvitek, national political reporter at cnn, who was previously at the Washington Post and Texas Tribune, so as well plugged into what is going on in Texas. Patrick, thanks for being here.

[Patrick Zvitek]

Thanks for having me, Sarah.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm pumped for this conversation. A couple days after the show airs, there's going to be some very interesting primaries for Congress in New York, Utah, Maryland, as well as a runoff in South Carolina. You're a national political reporter. Which races are you excited to cover in the upcoming primaries.

[Patrick Zvitek]

There's a lot of really notable primaries coming up, I think in the New York House primaries, where the new mayor there, Zoran Momdani, has endorsed candidates that are more ideologically aligned with him than the incumbents, at least in two of those races. He's endorsed primary challengers in two of those races. And so he's clearly trying to put his ideological imprint on the New York City House delegation with those primaries. And so I'm watching those pretty closely. And then in the Maryland primary, you have just a mega expensive battle going on right now between Congresswoman April McClain Delaney and a primary challenger, David Trone, who many of us have probably known from his last few races, including a Senate race. And he has loaned himself, I believe, as of recording this, at least $25 million. And so he is running hard at her, challenging her from the left, you know, trying to attack her over her vote for the Lake and Riley act, which has become a political vulnerability for House Democrats all over the map right now as they've run in primaries. And the Democratic Party has kind express regret in some cases for how they voted on that or how they positioned themselves around that. So those are some of the primaries coming up that I'm most interested in.

[Sarah Longwell]

What's the one with George Conway and Schlossberg and some of the local guys? How's that one shaping up?

[Patrick Zvitek]

That's a really competitive one. I mean, there hasn't been a lot of public polling that I've seen. You know, you see the private polls every now and then get leaked out, but you got to take them with a grain of salt. But you have three or four very serious contenders there, all of them raising significant money on their own. And there's also so massive amounts of outside spending in that race. The AI industry is heavily engaged in that race. Different factions within the AI industry are engaged in that race. And you have. Michael Lasher is a former aide to Jerry Nadler, who's the retiring congressman that district. He's one of the leading candidates in that race. And it's just an all out battle. But I would say that the primaries, the separate primaries I mentioned, where Mamdani is engaged, they kind of strike me as more about like the ideological, you know, fissures inside the party right now. The one that you mentioned, you know, lot of money, a lot of back and forth, but, you know, the candidates all seem relatively ideologically aligned. The ones that Mamdani are in seemed a little. Seem to strike a little more at the heart of where the party is at ideologically right now.

[Sarah Longwell]

And when you say strike at the heart of where the party is ideologically, do you mean that there are sort of DSA progressives or people who identify as more Democratic socialists?

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Yes.

[Sarah Longwell]

And is that basically who he's endorsed? Actually haven't focused on this as much. So I'm interested. He is focusing primarily on endorsing DSA candidates. And are they faring well, I don't

[Patrick Zvitek]

want to say all three of the candidates he's endorsed are the DSA pick because I think there are maybe some differences with the local DSA chapter in New York. But there's no doubt that the candidates he's back in these three races are running to the left of other candidates. You know, and so you're seeing more, I think, pronounced divides in those races on issues like Israel, for example. I mean, especially with, you know, Brad Lander running against Congressman Dan golden, who's been a relatively reliable pro Israel voice in Congress, you know, who talks about being supported by AIPAC but not agreeing with every position on aipac. And so it is, you know, it is those races that strike me as a little more potent ideological right now in New York.

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm going to tap in on those. That is interesting. Okay. So for this show, we went down to Texas and we convened. And by that I mean we did a zoom with a bunch of voters from Texas. And you watched the footage of the focus group. But these are 2024 Trump voters who disapprove of his job performance. Was there anything that jumped out at you about the group overall?

[Patrick Zvitek]

Yeah, I mean, the extent of the disapproval, definitely. I mean, we're seeing this across the map, even in red states like Texas, where people who voted for Trump in 2024 just feel like he has not made a lot of progress on his campaign promises, on getting down the cost of living campaign promises, on avoiding foreign entanglements. Obviously, Trump, I think in many people's account, has gone in the opposite direction of that with the war in Iran. But more broadly, looking at the group, I think that I was struck by how, you know, it wasn't necessarily any particular policy issue that was driving their opinions. There was a lot of them. There were a lot of them who just said they want to change. Some of their responses on the governor's race, for example, I thought were really interesting for the people who were kind of sour on Greg Abbott. They didn't necessarily seem to have any, you know, acute policy concern. There was just a feeling of like, he's been there too Long. Yeah, I'm over the new leadership, you know, and I don't care. It almost seems like they were saying, like, I don't care if the new leadership is Republican or democr. It's just this guy's been there too long and we need new leadership. That stood out to me. In addition to just the extent of disapproval of Trump.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I would say for this group, they were sort of roughly the median voter in Texas because Trump won 56% of the vote there in 2024. But his approval rating now is split about evenly. And so I want to start by playing how these voters talked about Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate, who you may remember for getting impeached, having a big situation with his wife, who's divorcing him for biblical reasons, and for using his office to help out his friends. And I don't mean in a good way. I mean in a corrupt way. So let's listen to how Texans in our focus group talked about him.

[Texas Voter 1]

I was frankly shocked when I heard that Paxton won the primary. I feel like there was such a strong negative impression that his trial made

[Patrick Zvitek]

on a lot of people.

[Texas Voter 1]

I remember working at a law firm and working on a lot of lawyers at that time who were watching the trial and who were just, like, shaking their heads because it was just wild that he was able to get out of that pretty much scot free.

[Texas Voter 2]

Whether I agree with who Ken Paxton is as a human being, I hate to say, yes, it affects my opinion, but it can affect on what you think he can or do for the state.

[Texas Voter 3]

I wasn't the biggest fan of Ken Paxton, and I know it's going to sound really feminine, I guess, because I guess when the reports started coming out of the affair, the money laundering, all of that, and I was like, that's

[Sarah Longwell]

who we have in office.

[Texas Voter 3]

Are you kidding me? I'm not a fan of either of them, but it's. What's your options here? You don't have very many options. You got two candidates. Here's this one that's under money laundering affairs, all that extra stuff. And then here he is, two options. It's either the former, you know, criminal, or this.

[Texas Voter 4]

I feel like I'm. I'm leaning more towards pax and just based solely on. Not deep knowledge, but more so I know that he leans more towards the conservative side. Don't, you know, agree so much with, you know, his hard stance on, on immigration and, you know, some of those smaller issues that we see. Trump, I don't like to call Myself, left or right, I'm somewhere more in the middle, but closer to the right.

[Sarah Longwell]

So you may not know this about me, Patrick, but I do a lot of fighting with conservatives online. My old. My old chums about Ken Paxton and how Republicans have just decided to especially sort of the national pundit class, conservative pundit class, have decided to be like, all right, well, Paxton, yeah, he's really bad, but we're all in. Um, how do you see Republicans in Texas handling the fact that Paxton is on the ticket?

[Patrick Zvitek]

They're mostly rallying around him. They just had their state Republican Party convention over the past several days in Houston. They strove for the overwhelming theme to be unity drives victory. The governor took the lead on that branding. It was a big part of his speech. He paraded an elephant through the convention hall that had this blanket draped on the elephant that had that tagline on it. So they were really trying to bring the party together after this divisive primary primary runoff.

[Sarah Longwell]

Peed on every.

[Patrick Zvitek]

Exactly. You may have seen that a couple of videos showing that. And I do think most, you know, most leading Republicans in Texas have gotten the message and are rallying around Paxton. Now, of course, the major outlier is Cornyn, who has said only that he will support, quote, the Republican ticket and has explicitly said he won't campaign with Paxton. And so Cornyn is the outlier there, no doubt, and that's a very notable outlier. But otherwise, I've seen leading Republican figures really rally around Paxton since the runoff.

[Sarah Longwell]

Does Cornyn have any juice with people who might kind of not love Ken Paxton, like, would they? Are they looking at Cornyn to see what he does?

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think, number one, Cornyn is still very well respected among certain major Republican donors in Texas, the business community in Texas, people who have long been responsible for funding Republican efforts and efforts to keep Texas red. So I think in the donor community, he's an influential voice. And, yeah, there's definitely a relatively small sliver of the Republican base, but a sliver nonetheless that Ken Paxton may not want to leave on the table in the general election. That Corning could be influential with.

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[Sarah Longwell]

N. All right, let's talk about James Talrico, who's going to need no introduction to listeners of the show, but it sounded like the voters in our focus groups, they got a suboptimal introduction to Talarico. Let's listen.

[Texas Voter 2]

I'm not a Talarico fan. It reminds me too much of Beto. Like Abigail said about the transgender issues, the whole God's non binary, I just. I just can't get on board with that. I don't believe that God is non binary.

[Maine Voter 2]

He's.

[Texas Voter 5]

He's.

[Texas Voter 2]

He's talked about all those things, and I have not gone to the depth of looking at YouTube and seeing the entire speech. I've just caught the clips. So I don't know, you know, in what context that was, but it still just doesn't sit right with me.

[Sarah Longwell]

I guess he's, you know, heard that he's like type 1 diabetic and has, you know, you know, he's a former teacher and stuff like that where he just. Just kind of makes himself seem like a better person or like a more real person. But I would agree that he's probably the lesser of two evils if you had to choose.

[Texas Voter 3]

I don't know enough to say all of this about him, so it's just more so of like, hey, you see, you see the commercials, you see the commercials constantly and you're like, okay, I don't want that to make your mind up. But at the same time, you kind of have starting to make thoughts of its own.

[Texas Voter 6]

I will be voting for James Talarico. I like him a lot, even though I disagree with him on some things. I strongly prefer him to Ken Paxton. He supports like, transgender people being in sports with people of their born genders. And he, yeah, he would, he would vote for like kids being able to transition, which I disagree with things that are, that he's famous for, that people are, you know, focusing on about what people have said, like God is non binary. Obviously that's amplified because his opponents think that that will, you know, sway people. To me, whether he's a Christian or not is not a huge deal. That really doesn't influence it me at all. I'm looking for integrity and character. And at this point, I think I really like that he has agreed not to take any PAC money and he has no scandals or like, he seems like a really honest fellow. Not just the way he talks, but his, his record. He doesn't have scandals and he seems very much like he's trying to make the world a better place. Even though, like, I, I disagree with him on the transgender issue. He's, you know, said some things that

[Sarah Longwell]

I'm like, I don't know what you

[Texas Voter 6]

mean by that about God is non binary, but I'm like that, that's not gonna really. I don't think that's gonna make a huge difference in the country of how you vote in the government.

[Sarah Longwell]

Okay. So we played the full thought process of that last woman because I gotta say, just the way that I have sat and listened to so many Trump disapproving groups and felt like this one was a very strong Trump disapproving group. I was surprised that a number of people in the group, their top line perceptions of Talarico were not the best. And the, the God's non binary stuff, you hear it, that has land. It is imprinted like ducklings on their mother. Like it is imprinted in people's brains. And yet the majority of the group was still going to vote for Talarico anyway.

[Texas Voter 6]

Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

These are Trump voters and they're going to vote for Talarico. Did that surprise you?

[Patrick Zvitek]

Well, it surprised me how much it seems like the messaging on his support for various causes in the transgender community has, has burned in already. And I think that speaks to just how ferocious the GOP messaging against him has been, not just since the primary runoff on their side, but since the March 3 primary, Texas, where he emerged as the nominee. You know, I feel like obviously to an extent, reporters live in a bubble, but I do feel like, you know, in the first 48 hours after that primary, you know, my social media feeds were just filled with Republican accounts tweeting out all these video clips. And I thought maybe I was in a bubble. But you, you hear these focus group participants talk about it and it seems like those clips have really made their way through to them as well. One of them, I think that you just played, said that they would vote for Talarico as the lesser of two evils. Which is pretty amusing to me because I've, I've have followed Talarico's rise through Texas politics and I've seen in the Texas House how, you know, he has been a well regarded but relatively inoffensive player. And so to see him go from that to being someone in a statewide race who's regarded as the lesser of two evils probably shows you just how polarizing this choice has already become for these, these key voters.

[Sarah Longwell]

Well, I want to say a couple things because this is going to matter for the main groups too. One is I've now been through enough cycles of focus groups going into elections to know that as far out as we are, you really have to take people's preferences on the races with a grain of salt.

[Texas Voter 6]

Right?

[Sarah Longwell]

You are really dealing right now with people's first impressions of their own choice that they're going to make. And the second thing is as small of an issue as like trans people in sports is relative to its actual impact on people's lives. The amount that it comes up as either a tipping point issue that is like the thing that tips somebody over when they've got a tough choice to make or the thing that people overcome or overlook in order to vote for a Democrat is like, continues to sort of just surprise me. Not surprising because I hear it so often, but that is not uncommon. It is not. Just like the reason that they are going so hard at Tao Rico at that is that it is an issue that does play a weird tipping point role in voters perceptions of a candidate. Because for voters it seems to go to whether or not they view the candidate as normal. Like, like, right. And then, and that's that I'm using their words, not my own. But like that is a way that people judge them. Whereas she's saying that sort of his more liberal to I'm not taking any PAC money. And you know, I think health care for everybody, like that's what's winning her over. Which was just interesting to me.

[Patrick Zvitek]

It's all about issue salience. And I feel like sometimes in political reporting or analysis, we lose sight of this. We just see that an issue is unpopular. We see a candidate on the unpopular side of that issue, and we think, oh, people cannot vote for them on that based on that issue. It all comes down to where. Where are voters actually ranking that issue on their list of priorities? For some of these voters, they may strongly disagree with him on some of the statements he's made about transgender people, but, you know, their concern about transgender people is Maybe issue number 15 for them on their list of priorities.

[Sarah Longwell]

What's your assessment of this race? Like, sort of irrespective of the groups you just listened to, do you think he's got a better shot than Beto? Because one of the things, and this will go back to my point about how early it is, but I know we were kind of, you know, because we kind of make people choose in these. And there was a couple Paxton people.

[Texas Voter 5]

But.

[Sarah Longwell]

But I do get the sense that actually the. The route to victory for Talarico is really with the, like, Republicans staying home because they're like, eh, this is a sucky choice. I'm not going out there. Do you think that is true? Do you think that Talarico has a better shot than Beto did?

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think that he has a chance to make it as close as Beto did. I know that's maybe an unsatisfying way of dodging your answer, but I'll. I'll go a little further and say, you know, there's some really key similarities to the 2018 race and some very key differences. So I think key similarities is that the environment nationally is very similar. It's a midterm under Trump. Trump's unpopular Democrats are energized. Independents are siding with Democrats. It's very different to me in that I think people tend to forget that o' Rourke was relatively undefined in his Senate race until basically the summer of 2018. And he remained kind of a blank canvas for Texas voters for really the first year of his Senate campaign. And I think that allowed him, you know, to really become comfortable to all kinds of voters across the political spectrum. In Texas, Ted Cruz also deliberately, you know, chose not to attack him because they saw that he was relatively unknown and they didn't want to elevate him. In retrospect, you know, Texas Republicans probably would say that that was a mistake. This time around, you're seeing really something totally different. Talarico became known to a much wider swath of the Texas electorate early on, not just because of the Republican messaging, but because he went through a very competitive Democratic primary. O' Rourke did not go through a very competitive Democratic primary. So Talarico has become very familiar to Texas voters sooner than Beto O' Rourke ever did in that 2018 race. And you're also seeing Republicans more unified in their commitment to taking this race seriously. You know, in 2018, as I pointed out, Cruz kind of deliberately held off on attacking o'. Rourke and a lot of the rest of the Republican ecosystem in Texas followed his lead and they said, you know, they figured, you know, okay, Cruz does not believe it's worth attacking him right now. You know, we're gonna, we're not gonna spend money against him, we're not gonna incorporate him in our stump speeches. We're going to let him do his thing. But this time around, you are seeing the entire Republican ecosystem in Texas fully engaged in defining Talarico, you know, from the governor on down. So those are some of the key, I think, similarities and differences from 2018 that come to mind when you, when you ask that question.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, I mean, the other difference though is that the, I mean, people don't like Ted Cruz because Ted Cruz sucks. But, like, they don't, they're like, he doesn't have the liabilities that Paxton has. I enjoyed that woman who was like, maybe this is feminine. Like, is it feminine to dislike corruption? And I don't think so. I think, I think everybody can disapprove that. So, yeah, I guess, I guess there's that. The biggest thing that I'm trying to get my arms around in Texas is, is Paxton sort of enough of a scumbag that it does depress Republican enthusiasm at a time where they're already mad at Trump?

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think some Texas Republicans I speak to acknowledge that they will, they are going to have a base mobilization problem in this election. And, you know, how do you combat that? You have these really attention grabbing attacks on the Democratic candidate. Right. You know, they have all these nicknames against Talarico already. They're talking about him being a vegan, even though he isn't a vegan. And so it's actually kind of. Once Cruz decided to engage with her work in 2018, it's really kind of a similar playbook is, you know, the base is sleepy. You gotta wake them up with attacks that really stick and shake them awake. And then you also have to get Trump involved because Trump is, as we know, one of the biggest Republican base motivators in the country, especially in a red state like Texas where he remains very popular with Republican base. And so that's why I think you're already seeing Paxton openly say, yeah, I've talked with the president, he's going to come here and do a bunch of rallies. They've clearly made the calculation that whatever alienation of swing voters or independents comes with Trump getting involved in the race is worth it for the energy that Trump could bring to the turning out the Republican base.

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[Sarah Longwell]

All right, I want to go to Maine, which is also another big critical and probably much more likely of a potential pickup for Democrats. But of course, now you've got the reverse situation there, where the Democrats got all the baggage. I don't think people need me to lay out that this is a race between Susan Collins and Graham Platner. Now, everyone you're going to hear today in the main focus groups voted for Joe Biden and Susan Collins in 2020. And then everybody except one person was a Harris voter in 2024. So these are mostly people who vote nationally for Democrats, except for one guy in one case and vote for Susan Collins. So because these are Susan Collins former voters, let's listen to how they talk about her right now.

[Maine Voter 3]

I voted for Susan Collins since 1996. I will not vote for her again. Period. End of story. In my mind. It's just, you know, she is letting this stuff happen. You know, she let the two Supreme Court justices on. They weren't qualified. We knew that. And what the national pundits are missing is they just don't understand me. Graham Platner is Maine. He's a Mainer. We understand that. We recognize that. We understand what that means, and we're going to vote for him. She's going to lose. Having the history of voting for her, I felt comfortable with her in 2020. I didn't really care for Sarah Gideon. Nothing particular. Just didn't love the package. You know, seeing the results of so many of Susan Collins votes, you know, starting in 2018, really, and, you know, coming in the current day, I cannot possibly support her. I just can't. I mean, the choices that she's making are accelerating the downfall of the United States, in my opinion. Sometimes she'll vote against a Donald Trump initiative, but that's because they've already counted the votes. We all know that. They know they have enough to pass, so they're going to let Susie play the card.

[Maine Voter 4]

I voted for her ever since I was 18 and allowed to vote because back in the 90s, my mother could not walk from Ms. And she got denied her disability. She physically could not walk. So she ended up getting a letter from our family and she helped my mom get there. That. So from that moment on, I was only, like, five or six years old when this happened. Like, she was like, my loyal, like, lady the whole way through. I was like, yeah, this lady's awesome. You know, so. But then, like, that Kavanaugh thing happened. I'm like, wait a minute. Like, where are your values, lady? Like, you know, like, the majority here, what we believe here in Maine, like, what are you doing overall? Like, I guess, like, because what she did for my family, I almost feel like this sort of drive to vote for her because of how much she, like, she did for my mother when I was just a child and I was helpless. So it's kind of like, you know, one of those things where emotionally I didn't feel right about the other choices in comparison to someone who did that, that proved themselves that way. But I am also, you know, pro

[Maine Voter 2]

Choice back in 2020. Honestly, I don't even remember who else was running, but I liked some of the things that she stood for and some of the things she was saying more than anybody else. So that's why I went with her.

[Maine Voter 1]

I also am a registered independent, so there have been times that I have voted Republican for Susan Collins and also back then in the day, Olympia Snow. But the way that Collins has represented us the past six years has been horrible.

[Maine Voter 5]

I was just so used to seeing her even as a kid growing up, because she's been in office for what, 30 years now. So, like, I don't know, I guess it was just more comfortable things. I'm also an independent, so, you know, I just feel like at 2020, I just feel like maybe she's had some things to offer than the other one other candidates did or something.

[Maine Voter 6]

I voted for her because she gets a lot of funding for veterans, disabled people. She brings a lot of money into Maine, so that's important. And she's supposed to be more bipartisan, but as of recent, she just kind of votes whatever way they want her to sway things. And she's been like, really pro war, which is not great. You know, sending all our money overseas is definitely not going to help us. So I'm kind of on the fence right now about her grand. But previously she'd done good. I guess the money just kind of got to her finally and then can control her now.

[Maine Voter 7]

I didn't think Sarah Gideon really had enough experience to be in that seat. I think Susan Collins is intelligent. Lots of experience. She came across like she was bipartisan. And then, yes, when she went her vote for Kavanaugh, I was really angry and I was like, okay, I would not have voted for her. She acted like that was not necessarily going to be her vote and that, you know, she, you know, she was going to do what she thought was right and, you know, she was going to listen to what he had to say. And I mean, what he had to say didn't change. But then all of a sudden, she did vote for him. I don't love Graham Platner as the choice instead of her. I mean, I definitely want a Democrat. I just wish it wasn't him.

[Maine Voter 2]

Right now. I'm 50. 50, I think who I'm going to go with just because it just doesn't seem like a slam dunk to me. It just doesn't seem like an easy choice. But I'm leaning more towards him only because he's the one in that as a Democrat. And I think it is time for a change. As far as Susan Collins, save on

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[Sarah Longwell]

Hey, it's your ceiling vent. So I'm dripping. Could be the rain, could be the upstairs bathroom.

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[Sarah Longwell]

You could hire the guy your neighbor recommended, but I'm pretty sure that's just his cousin. Do we know if he's licensed or does he just own a ladder?

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[Sarah Longwell]

Today I've been doing a bunch of groups in Maine, and I've got a number of thoughts about just Maine voters in general. One is, you'd think it would be the case in Texas that people would say, like, as Texans, like, be really attached to their Texas identity. But you hear a lot more of that stuff out of Maine voters, like this idea that, like, we're from Maine and people outside of Maine don't understand us or why we have to make the choices that we make. That's one observation that I have from the Maine groups. The other one is, you know, you were talking earlier about how people are done with Greg Abbott, and this is true across the board with a lot of people who are, like, ready to be done with people, like, they're ready for a change. And you just heard that in these groups. But you also hear that that's like a new position that they have for years supported Susan Collins, basically because they're like, yeah, she's fine. She's good. She did this good thing. I heard this good story. I've known her forever. She's been around forever. And so they only just now have decided that her experience or the votes that she's taken have. They are mad about that in a. In a new way. What do you make of that? Why do you think that Graham Platner, with all his baggage, still seems like he might be in a somewhat better position than Sarah Gideon was six years ago?

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think the through line in a lot of those comments was, like, the sense of political inertia. People have felt in favor of Susan Collins up until this election. I mean, people mentioned Kavanaugh, but, you know, Kavanaugh was 2018. They still, despite that, voted for her and voted for Biden in this group in 2020, two years later. So that's clearly not the entire, you know, part of the puzzle. These voters just feel that since Trump returned to power and has shattered so many norms and tested our government and democratic system so dramatically that we are just in a totally different political moment, I think, than when they previously voted for Susan Collins. And to the extent they're still open to voting for Susan Collins, they want to see her up to Trump more, and they're just not getting that. And that's why I think, you know, Platner has such an opening with these voters, even though he has this long list of personal political vulnerabilities that we've all spent the last several weeks going through. And so, you know, he clearly, I think, speaks for the voter who feels like this is not a normal time in our country. I think he is clearly appealing much more to that voter than Susan Collins is. He is kind of the avatar for those Democrats and some of those independents who believe these times are not normal and that it requires a much more urgent and in some cases less collegial politics. And you look at Susan Collins and her political brands, it has been kind of the opposite of that in terms of her style being more understated, trying to pick her battles, whereas Platner is just much more confrontational and again, is running as if this is not a normal time him. And so I think that's why these, these voters are getable for him 100%.

[Sarah Longwell]

I mean, we're going to get into it because they have more to say on, on Platner and why they kind of overlook it. But there is no doubt, and this is true of groups all over the place where there's sort of a depressed enthusiasm for Trump because he has on the Republicans or right leaning independents, people who voted for him because they wanted him to lower prices, all the things they wanted. They feel like they have not gotten, that things have gotten worse. So there's the depressed enthusiasm there and then there rage bump on the Democratic side that is also directed at Democrats writ large. It's at the dnc and these guys are feckless. But for the individual candidates, whether it is a, a sweet guy like Tal Rico or a very damaged, full of baggage guy like Platner, they kind of have this like, not only is it not a normal time, but they're like, do you see what's happening? Why won't somebody stand up and do something about that? This is so bad. It's not even that. They're like, burn it all down. They're like, somebody has to do something. Someone has to stop this. I want to do Maine and Texas together in part because they've become a little bit Mirrors of each other. Where you do hear, especially on the national side, there's like a hack gap where I feel like national Democrats are struggling with the platner of it all in a way where Republicans are like, let's get an elephant. Let's talk about unity. Even if he pees on the floor, we're all in for Paxton. We know all the baggage, but, like, we're just going to attack, tow Rico and move on, and no one can shame us in that. Whereas Democrats, you feel a real sense of, do I have to support this guy? But at the same time saying the check on Trump, I'll do whatever it takes.

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think the simple answer is that Republicans, both in Texas and nationwide, have just already gone through this with Donald Trump. I mean, they have already gone through this through the psychological, deeply psychological experience of embracing a Republican standard bearer who is, is, has all these vulnerabilities and is, you know, you know, morally compromised and has ethical issues and whatnot. They have that scar tissue on a very national scale. And so I think that's kind of the short answer to why in Texas, you know, Republicans seem to be okay with, with Paxton being their standard bearer overall.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah, to me, that, that part is less interesting. Although it's not just Trump because it's also Herschel Walker and Kerry Lake. And, you know, there a very. Marjorie Taylor Green. You know, there's been a lot of these extremely flawed, said insane things have done insane things, and Republicans made their peace with them. There was the, the black Nazi porn pizza guy, Mark Robinson. And so all of that, I do think, has changed things. I think what is different about this is the, the level of tolerance that Democrats have seen Republicans give to those candidates and decide that they no longer are going to maintain. They're not gonna like on, for character reasons, throw somebody out. They're like, you guys have not done this at any point over any candidate. And so why should we? It's the sort of rejection of the, when they go low, we go high. Which to me has been the shift this time around is like, they're just not going to be shamed by Republicans calling out someone's baggage.

[Patrick Zvitek]

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, like you said, I mean, these Democratic voters are thinking, you know, Republicans for the past several years have not done as much as we think they should do to police their own ranks. Why should we try to, you know, police our ranks when they won't police their ranks? And I think also in Maine, it has helped throughout this whole process that independent public polling has shown that Graham Platner at least keeps the general election against Susan Collins competitive. Now, I know everyone, you know has ptsd. Democrats have PTSD from polls that showed Collins losing her last reelection campaign. So you have to take that with a grain of salt. But, you know, the data continues to consistently show that this remains a competitive general election and that Platner has not been nosediving in the polls as far as his. His general election viability is concerned, and

[Sarah Longwell]

not with these voters, either. All right, I want to talk about Platner. As you may gather from the clips that we listened to before, a lot of the voters in the focus groups are primed to want a Democrat, and some of them had nicer things to say about Platner than others. And we're going to get into his personal baggage in the next batch of sound. But first, let's listen to how this group talked about Platner in general terms.

[Maine Voter 7]

I actually agree with a lot of the things he's interested in changing. And at first I was like, oh, you know, he seems. He seems really good. I mean, I don't love his lack of experience in politics, like, because it definitely could go either way. You know, he could be strong, or he could just end up being more intimidated than what he felt was going to be kind of like a fish out of water. And, you know, either he'll thrive or he won't. I wish he was just someone else with, like, what he wants to change, but just someone else because his background is just kind of disturbing.

[Maine Voter 5]

Collins has a lot of pole in that office at the moment, spending 30 years. But for Graham, I think. I don't know, I think that it could be a good change, but I just feel like he really doesn't know a whole lot about, you know, the Senate seat or even. Even if he tried for, like, governor or something. I think he'd probably be better off in that situation than he would send the.

[Maine Voter 2]

I wish his background wasn't his background because, honestly, I don't go out of my way because I just. Real politics doesn't interest me that much. But I am bombarded, like everybody else, with ads, both on TV and at the post office. I see the physical, this because I'm moving the mail. I've heard way more about his background than obviously from his opponents, than what he stands for. I want to state that as a fact, not as a criticism, because it costs money to get ads out there, whether in print or on TV or the radio. So that's a lot of money. So I'm assuming he doesn't have as much money to put as much out there as the people who do have the money to just put in our face all the negative stuff.

[Maine Voter 1]

I don't see him personally being able to do anything for the state of Maine. He doesn't have the credibility, he doesn't have the experience and he's just going to spend time learning how to do the job because he doesn't have the experience. I hope that his character has improved over the things that he has done in the past. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt as long as nothing comes out that's prosecutable against him. Then you know what? He he has my vote and, and, and I and I wish him well.

[Sarah Longwell]

So a lot of wait and see in there. I do think, I do think something that I've been picking up from voters is like in Maine specifically is a he still got my vote, but I'm nervous about what else might be out there.

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[Sarah Longwell]

In fact, actually, let's just go to the next tranche of sound and talk about the personal background. Because this is a mashup of how people talked about his tattoo, his Reddit posts, his extramarital sexting, and most damningly, the New York Times report alleging that he had been physically violent with an ex girlfriend. But before we play the sound, not everyone in our focus group had heard the New York Times story. Like they just not everybody had heard about it. But let's listen.

[Maine Voter 3]

The tattoo issue doesn't bother me at all. I remember being 22 years old and doing stupid stuff all the time and I do believe him that he didn't know what it was. 22 years old, you're in Germany, you've got money, you're gonna go get a tattoo that looks cool. I want that. I buy it. He's talked about all kinds of stuff in his history, and he does take blame for it. He does own up for it, and I respect that.

[Maine Voter 4]

No, we've all been in a place in our lives where we spewed stuff. I know the keyboard warrior thing that, you know, people do, they say things. Because that's the thing about the Internet. You know, you're not face to face with somebody. It's like an anonymous platform or it's supposed to be, right? But we found out it was his. But, like, you know, at the time, he didn't think this was gonna ever come out, you know, so anybody who doesn't think they're going to be monitored later in life is going to say some stuff sometimes on the Internet, he

[Maine Voter 6]

was just on a bunch of dating apps while he was engaged in dating multiple women and being a player kind of stuff. And there was the thing about if somebody broke into his house, what he would do to the person that broke into the house. That was pretty bad. But I guess he's not wrong. I don't know.

[Maine Voter 3]

He's been on the dating apps. He's, you know, seems like he's kind of, excuse my language, but shitty person on the dating apps.

[Maine Voter 4]

As somebody that grew up around a domestic violence situation, I am not very keen on women being abused in any

[Sarah Longwell]

way, shape or form.

[Maine Voter 4]

I read about one of the exes that said that he basically wouldn't let her leave the room and was like, literally, like, basically restraining her, like, a bit. But I saw the interview that was on the news, and they say, like, you know, you say to believe every woman, but why did you say not to that, you know, not to believe her? He's like, because it's not true. And I'm like thinking to myself, that's like the. The playbook by playbook of like, you know, somebody, you know, say, well, you know, I'm sorry she feels that way or something, but I don't know, it's just a tough subject. And for me, it kind of, yeah, hits me the wrong way.

[Maine Voter 5]

We would fight naggy with them and just be abusive to them. I think that was all during the time where he was an alcoholic as well. And I think he came out and said that, you know, like I said, he had. Everybody has skeletons in the closets. So I Think he did admit it as well. It's crazy to me how like. Like when somebody like this comes out and tries to do good in their life, and then all of a sudden, like, everything just comes ping. All the. Comes piling behind them, you know what I mean? It's like, you know, because they don't want them in office, so now they're just going to cram all this stuff in there and try to make them look like a bad guy. It's just crazy.

[Maine Voter 7]

He seems genuinely kind of like he could be a bad person. So even though, like, the things he talks about that he wants to change, I just don't know if he has the ability to do it if he's elected. I just think it's. I think it's just a huge risk with him because I don't think he's a good person. And I think, like, you know, everyone's gonna kind of see that, and I just don't know if he'll be able to do what's right for me.

[Maine Voter 3]

What we've been discussing for what the last 30 minutes has been, you know, personality traits of Graham Platner. Not a single issue has been brought up. Every attack ad is about his history. Nothing is being talked about, about his positions on things that are important to us. You know, we don't talk about Medicare for All. We don't talk about ending wars. We talk about, oh, he's got a tattoo. It's stupid.

[Maine Voter 2]

The things I've seen in the ads on Reddit are, you know, I wouldn't say disturbing, but they don't. You know, it's not a good feeling about them, but they were a while ago. But when you said the New York Times, one talked about, you know, physical abuse, even if that was a while ago, even if maybe it was because he was an alcoholic, that gave, you know, it's like I paused for a second thinking about that, and I hope it's not true. And if it is, I hope it was because he wasn't himself, he was on a substance or whatever. If he has anymore, he really should just come out with it. In my opinion. My last thing to say is I won't be surprised if more comes out.

[Sarah Longwell]

So this is what I was starting to say before, which is, look, nobody in this group was willing to vote for Collins. They were, they were. And most of them were like, I'm voting for Platner. But there was a fair amount of, let's wait and see, because I'm not sure this is a great guy. And I'm not sure. There might not be more that comes out, which is, I think, sort of what you are really hearing in this. What is the mood among national Democrats since Platner became the nominee is, is did they have the sense that another shoe might be dropping?

[Patrick Zvitek]

I think there continues to be anxiety among national Democrats that another shoe could drop, if only because there were, there were additional, additional shoes dropping in literally the week before his primary. I mean, it has been a continual drip, drip of damaging information. And so I think that that is just fueling a continued anxiety that there could be more to come. And even just a couple hours before we recorded this podcast, Chuck Schumer was asked about the Maine Senate race and if he was supporting Graham Platner. And he didn't even say Graham Platner's name. He just said, we're going to beat Susan Collins and take back the Senate majority. He has said Platner's name before, but I still haven't heard heard the top Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer, actually explicitly say, I am all in for Graham Platner and want him, specifically him to flip this seat in November. And so I think there is still some hedging. If you follow comments from people like Chuck Schumer, it has to be because of this anxiety that there's still more out there that could come out about him.

[Sarah Longwell]

How do you assess? I think about this a lot, but how do you assess who's the bigger hypocrite? Like, is it Democrats who have talked about Trump's unfitness, his lack of character? And for a long time we're really trying to do take the, they go low, we go high. You know, they got rid of Al Franken for like, what is now like a, a very baby me too scandal relative to so many other things we've seen. Like, they're really angry that, that they were kind of holding their side to standards that were just so far from what Republicans were doing. But is it Democrats sort of accepting Platner or is it Republicans condemning Platner on character grounds?

[Patrick Zvitek]

That's a great question. I mean, obviously Democrats, at least in this modern political era, have set higher moral and ethical standards for their candidates and have been less willing to accept questionable ethical and moral behavior. And so I guess if you judge Democrats by the standards that they have seen set for candidates as recently as, for example, like you said, when Al Franken was serving or came to the end of his service in the Senate, then, yeah, they are probably higher on the hypocrisy scale. But the broader picture here is that Republicans have just long ago gotten more comfortable with accepting these flawed candidates. And you talk about the parallels between Maine and Texas, and you look specifically at the allegations in each race of not being faithful to one's wife. And it's, I think the, you know, I don't know if irony is the right word, but in Maine, you have a candidate who's, who obviously had some trouble in his marriage, but his wife is standing beside him, you know, and has defended him and pushed back on the reporting around this. And even then, Maine Democrats are like, like, I don't know. Whereas in Texas, you have a candidate who's accused of being unfaithful to his wife, of having an extramarital affair where she divorced him, citing it, you know, and Texas Republicans are like, you know, now that we're in the general election, I think we're going to take this. And so it's just fascinating to see, you know, just even on that, you know, narrow scandal category of being unfaithful to one's wife, how the different partisans in these two states think about the circumstances.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. And one could argue that in the case of Paxton, who claims to be a devout Christian, who talks about, about, you know, why we shouldn't accept trans people or, you know, whatever, versus Graham Platner, who's basically like, yeah, guys, I was a bad guy. I did bad things. I have observed now for a very long time the way Republicans lock in and get onside, no matter the hypocrisy, no matter the behavior of the candidate. And I just, I really have to separate my own feelings about Platner, who I very much think is probably not a good guy, versus, like, how I feel about Maine voters, say, assessing him and saying, you know what? I don't think he's a good guy. But also, you know, we need to put a check on Trump and, like, look at what Republicans have been accepting. I don't begrudge them that. I can't begrudge them that.

[Texas Voter 1]

Yeah.

[Patrick Zvitek]

I mean, Republicans have certainly in the, you know, in the past several years put on a tutorial for Democrats on how to swallow reservations about candidates and unify for the sake of the general election. And clearly Democrats are trying to catch up to that now, I think.

[Sarah Longwell]

Yeah. Although, you know, to their credit, they're still struggling with it a little bit. Patrick's VTech thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the focus group podcast. This was a really fun one. I was excited to get into the Texas and Maine Senate race. You're a great guest to talk these through with. Hope you guys found this as illuminating as I did. If you want more, go subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts and become a Bulwark plus member at the bulwark.com because there is a lot more coverage coming down the pike before Election Day. We'll see you guys soon.

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[Texas Voter 5]

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[Safeway/Albertsons Advertiser]

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