The Focus Group Podcast – S6 Ep8: "New Jersey: The 'No Narc' State"

Host: Sarah Longwell
Guest: Jonathan V. Last (JVL)
Date: October 25, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Sarah Longwell and special guest Jonathan V. Last (JVL) dig into New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race: Democrat Mikie Sherrill vs. Republican Jack Cittarelli. The conversation unpacks why New Jersey is unexpectedly competitive despite its blue reputation, the unique culture of "the Garden State," and what real, undecided voters are saying in focus groups. The pair investigate affordability woes, frustrations with both candidates, and how national trends—from Trumpification to economic anxiety—are playing out locally. With a heavy dose of both snark and substance, they tease apart the realities behind voter complaints and campaign narratives.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The New Jersey Gubernatorial Race – Local Stakes, National Implications

• Context: New Jersey, usually a Democratic stronghold, only went for Kamala Harris by 6 points in 2024—one of the sharpest rightward swings in the country. Now, Mikie Sherrill (D) faces a tough challenge from Jack Cittarelli (R).
• Why it Matters: Off-year governor’s races send powerful electoral signals for 2026 and beyond. Both hosts agree pundits will over-interpret the results, regardless of who wins.
  • Sarah [01:56]: “These off years, governor's races are hugely important for national narratives. Pundits are going to be drawing all sorts of conclusions about what the results mean for 2026 and beyond.”

2. What Voters Think: Focus Group Takeaways

Are "Undecided" Voters Really Undecided?

• Both hosts are skeptical; significant partisan leanings showed through.
  • Sarah [04:30]: “The undecided voter typically has a partisan lean... Typically, wherever they are now, that mirrors pretty closely what they ultimately do.”
  • JVL [04:21]: “Some of them were [undecided]. I think most... were pretty well decided.”

Voter Mood – Gloomy on Economy and Living Costs

• Voters across party lines lament high costs of living, especially energy, property taxes, and housing.
  • Voter [06:33]: “Cost of living is like out of control... I'm thinking of maybe moving to a different state or leaving the country. The cost of living in New Jersey is astronomical, especially with utilities right now.”
  • JVL [08:52]: “New Jersey is a high cost of living state because it is desirable. That's why these people who want to leave... Don't let the door hit you on the way out... The big driver of cost of living in New Jersey is real estate. And then on top of that, local taxes.”

Electricity, Energy, and AI

• A recurring complaint across groups: spiking energy bills, attributed to AI-driven data center expansion.
  • JVL [10:39]: “The reason electricity costs are so high right now is because of AI... At some point the AI bubble is going to pop… and then everybody's electrical costs will go down... Do you think they'll be happy then?”

High Real Estate Costs – Feature or Bug?

• JVL pushes back on complaints, arguing that New Jersey’s desirability and local control mean high taxes but also top schools.
  • JVL [09:56]: “What you get then is more local control, which is a good thing... And what you get because of that is by all accounts the best schools in the nation, K to 12.”

3. The Culture of New Jersey: What Makes Politics Jersey-Specific?

• Stereotypes and Truths: JVL argues New Jerseyans are used to high costs and are fiercely pragmatic; little patience for ideological outliers or “narc” behavior.
• No Narc State: The episode’s title references a mini-scandal emerging from Sherrill’s Naval Academy days—the campaign hit her for not reporting classmates accused of cheating.
  • JVL [30:03]: “Accusing somebody of not having ratted out their classmates is the least effective attack you could possibly make in this state... Snitches get stitches in New Jersey. They should put omerta on the license plate.”

4. Candidate Contrasts: Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Cittarelli

Neither Candidate Inspires Strong Love or Hate

• Focus group voters find both underwhelming; most see them as generic representatives of their parties, not passionate advocates.
  • JVL [17:15]: “You have two very stereotypical types... There just aren't a lot of strong feelings about either candidate... the stakes feel reasonably low.”

Sherrill’s Challenges: Elite, Wealth, and The Relatability Gap

• Voters perceive Mikie Sherrill as highly accomplished, successful, and a bit distant. Several express cynicism over her wealth and investment disclosures.

  • Voter [28:27]: "Again, I'm a little bit cynical. I think a lot of people in politics all of a sudden make these magic investments that you and I don't have access to..."

• The infamous “Breakfast Club” interview, replayed in attack ads, hurt her image for many:

  • Ad quote [33:00]: “Well, did you make 7 million in stock trades at all?... I haven’t... I don’t believe I did...”
  • Sarah [37:08]: “This is why this is landing with people... If you are so rich that when you're asked about $7 million in trades and you're like, I don't really know, people are like, that is an insane thing for an average person.”

Cittarelli’s MAGA Problem and Moderate Reputation

• Cittarelli ran as “ultra-MAGA” in the primary, but since then distances himself from Trump in the general—almost to Youngkin levels.
  • JVL [44:19]: “In the primary, Cittarelli branded himself as, like, the most dark ultra MAGA ever... And then the minute the primary was over, he's like, Trump? I’m sorry, I don’t know a Trump... It is weird the degree to which he has run away from Trump.”

Voters’ Candidate Calculus

• Most Harris voters default to Sherrill; most Trump voters lean Cittarelli, with a couple swing-y exceptions.
• Many directly reference voting “the lesser of two evils,” citing issues like abortion, education, and taxes. Nearly all voice at least minor skepticism about both.

5. Nationalization vs. Local Concerns

• Can Governors Matter on Cost of Living?
  JVL is deeply cynical about campaign promises to meaningfully lower New Jersey’s fundamental expenses.
  • JVL [21:06]: “Neither of these candidates is going to be able to lower the cost of living appreciably in New Jersey because ... it’s the densest population in the country.”
• Sarah’s Counter: Affirms that policy tools can mitigate some affordability pressures, especially long-term (e.g., more housing construction).

6. Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

On the “No Narc” Attack

• JVL [30:03]: “Accusing somebody of not having ratted out their classmates is the least effective attack you could possibly make in this state... They should put omerta on the license plate.”

On Voter Cynicism and Contradiction

• JVL [55:08]: “There were some voters in these groups who had pretty sophisticated views... But most of these voters on both sides... I don't think any of them sounded as though they believed that either of these candidates could lower the cost of living. Did you get that sense?”
• Sarah [61:45]: "Their feelings don't always care about your facts, which is why you have to fight... when Trump practices narrative dominance, that does allow him to do better with voters who are not going to do a ton of research..."

On the Broader National Stakes

• Sarah [49:47]: “It is going to be possible that the blue wall states won't be enough for Democrats after the 2030 census... you need a state like New Jersey to kind of stay firmly in the D camp.”

Notable Quotes by Timestamp

• [01:56] Sarah: "These off years, governor's races are hugely important for national narratives... the issues deciding this race are mostly pretty local."
• [08:52] JVL: "New Jersey is a high cost of living state because it is desirable... Don't let the door hit you on the way out."
• [30:23] JVL: "It's a no narc state... Snitches get stitches in New Jersey."
• [33:00] Attack Ad, Cittarelli: “Well, did you make 7 million in stock trades at all? I... I haven't. I don't believe I did. But I'd have to go see what... what that was alluding to again.”
• [37:08] Sarah: “This is why this is landing with people... If you are so rich that when you're asked about $7 million in trades and you're like, I don't really know, people are like, that is an insane thing for an average person.”
• [44:19] JVL: “In the primary, Cittarelli branded himself as... the most ultra MAGA ever... And then the minute the primary was over, he's like, trump? I'm sorry, I don't know a Trump...”
• [49:47] Sarah: “It is going to be possible that the blue wall states won't be enough for Democrats after the 2030 census... you need a state like New Jersey to kind of stay firmly in the D camp.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [06:33–08:12]: Trump voter focus group – Cost of living laments
• [13:51–15:51]: Harris voter focus group – Mixed sense of security in blue New Jersey, cost complaints
• [24:43–29:28]: Harris voters discuss candidate impressions, the “no narc” and investment controversies
• [30:03–31:01]: JVL and Sarah on the ineffectiveness of the “no narc” attack in New Jersey culture
• [32:49–33:20]: Cittarelli’s attack ad and the $7 million trades gaffe
• [36:33–37:45]: JVL and Sarah debate relatability, wealth, and why the attacks on Sherrill stick
• [40:00–42:20]: Trump voters discuss abortion rights and education
• [49:47–56:55]: Discussion on the broader national significance and demographic trends the race may reveal
• [55:08–61:50]: Meta-discussion of voter cynicism, accuracy, and the messy reality of American politics

Tone & Style Notes

Sarah and JVL maintain their signature mix of sharp analysis, Jersey-insider banter, and dry, sometimes exasperated, humor. JVL rants against economic illiteracy in his best “cranky uncle at Thanksgiving” voice, while Sarah plays the straight man—a tolerant and ever-curious focus group wrangler. Their mutual respect and quick back-and-forth make the listen engaging, even as they happily call out voters’ contradictions and the limits of “undecided” status.

Conclusion

This episode offers a fresh, authentic look at why New Jersey’s governor’s race is far closer than it “should” be, how relentless economic anxiety shapes even the bluest states, and how—whether voters are spinning tales of taxes or cheating scandals—the reality is always more Jersey than meets the eye. If you want to know what’s really going on behind campaign polling numbers, the “No Narc State” has answers—delivered with side helpings of gabagool, Jersey pride, and just enough existential dread.