← The Focus Group Podcast
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- [00:01]
Sarah Longwell
Hey, this is Sarah. Look, I'm standing out front of a.m. p.m. Right now and well, you're sweet and all, but I found something more fulfilling.
- [00:09]
Jeff Shapiro
Even kind of cheesy. But I like it.
- [00:11]
Sarah Longwell
Sure you met some of my dietary.
- [00:13]
Jeff Shapiro
Needs, but they've just got it all.
- [00:15]
Sarah Longwell
So farewell Oatmeal so long you strange soggy.
- [00:19]
Jeff Shapiro
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- [00:31]
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- [01:06]
Sarah Longwell
Hello everyone and welcome to the Focus Group Podcast. I'm Sarah Longwell, publisher of the Bulwark, and this week we're taking you across the Potomac river from my office to Virginia, which has a couple of the marquee elections of 2025. In the governor's race, one of my personal favorite Democrats, Abigail Spanberger, is on track to be the next governor because Republicans nominated a MAGA insane person in a state that doesn't vote for Republicans who are MAGA insane people. She could win by anywhere from 2 to 3 points to 13 points. Looking at the distribution of the polls, perhaps somewhere in the middle of that, I don't know, I'd probably go a little bit higher. But Republicans do have a chance to salvage one of the key races for Attorney General, where the Republican incumbent got a new lease on his political life because of some completely deranged behavior by his Democratic opponent. We're going to spend some time on that one today, too. My guest today is an institution in Virginia politics, Jeff Shapiro, scholar at the University of Virginia center for Politics, and for nearly 40 years covered Virginia politics for the Richmond Times Dispatch. Jeff, thanks for being here.
- [02:17]
Jeff Shapiro
Thanks for having me.
- [02:19]
Sarah Longwell
All right, Jeff, you're out with a piece in Sabato's Crystal Ball about the role this race plays in national political prognosticating. So tell us, how has Virginia evolved politically since you've been covering politics there?
- [02:32]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, just to note that there are two states choosing governors in this year immediately following a presidential election. New Jersey which tends to be more strongly Democratic and somewhat competitive. Virginia, depending on where we are in our cycle. This is a state that holds elections every year. Virginia was a state that sort of stood apart from the country. Maybe the best way to put it is taken aback by the tenor of national Democratic politics. Intended as a default conservative state to break Republican at the statewide level for president, and certainly in what we refer to as the competitive era from 1969 forward, electing some Republicans as governor, the state has become nationalized. The majority of people who live in Virginia are non natives. 42% of Virginians are black, Asian and Hispanic. The Asian and Hispanic populations basically emerged overnight, at least demographically speaking, since the 70s. And Virginia is a state in which the majority of people are, by a 2 to 1 margin, live in the cities and suburbs. And it's in the cities and suburbs where we're seeing this resurgent or certainly strengthened Democratic vote. It's fascinating because a lifetime ago, following the Second World War, first gubernatorial election following World War II in 1945, this was a time in which the suburbanization of Virginia was just beginning to emerge. All of this was tied, of course, to the war effort, but it was still a state in which two thirds of the people who lived here lived in the countryside. So we have a highly nationalized electorate. We also have, particularly in those cities and suburbs, a highly educated electorate and a well remunerated electorate. So there are a lot of ingredients in Virginia's voting population that are favorable to Democrats. And of course that Democratic strength really depends on how many people turn out. Because you'll recall four years ago, Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, really running the perfect race, won the governorship barely. But of course it also followed the 2020 presidential election in which Joe Biden was elected. And we have what we call the Virginia curse, that since 1976, the party that wins the presidency loses the governorship the following year. There's been one exception, 2013. That was when Terry McAuliffe, former DNC chair, was narrowly elected governor one year after Barack Obama was reelected to the presidency.
- [05:35]
Sarah Longwell
Got it. Now for this show, we are going to talk to people who are planning to split their ticket in the upcoming election. Everyone you're going to hear today is planning to vote for Abigail Spanberger for governor, who is the Democrat, and Jason Miaris, the Republican for Attorney General. So we're going to start by listening to people's high level thoughts on how they think things are going in in Virginia. And as a reminder, we asked this question at the top of every focus group, how do you think things are going in the country? And so for this group, we asked them, how do you think things are going in the country and how do you think things are going in the Commonwealth of Virginia? And here's what they said.
- [06:14]
Prince William County Resident
If you travel internationally, you do get asked how you feel about Donald Trump as our president. And most people in other countries are flabbergasted that this is what the state of the union that we're living in right now. As far as how I feel about the state of Virginia, based mostly on the part of Virginia that I live in, we're in a very interesting time, particularly in Prince William county, where I am. We're on track to be the largest data center builds in the world. I think that there's been a mistake in how much land has been reallocated to that type of development. So there, you know, there's always smart growth. I believe in development and I believe in growth, whether it's economic or personally, but I don't know that we planned very well for the resources that need to be allocated to support that type of infrastructure. I can tell you personally that my power bill has gone up significantly. My consumption has not. So that feels, I hate to use the word unfair, but If I use 100 units of something and a data center uses 100,000 units of something, my bills shouldn't go up because they're consuming more. So from a planning perspective, that seems not well thought out.
- [07:29]
Concerned Voter 1
I'm frankly scared to lose our status as a purple state because he will attack us in the same way he's attacking other blue states. And I don't like that feeling that my president is going to come after me because my state votes the wrong way or puts the wrong governor in office. So I give thumbs down on the country and Virginia has a couple more positives for me. We seem to be holding up.
- [07:53]
Sterling Resident
I'm in Sterling, which is Loudoun county, so I can relate to the last comments about some of the data centers. There's a lot around us, the infrastructure. We've gotten some roads that are better, but houses are going up faster. So I do worry about just the quality of like, education, access for all the different things, water bills, everything's going up. So it's very unique. Right now in my neighborhood, it's like politics are off limits. Nobody says anything because it can be a trigger. Because there's some extremeness now where I think before with Trump, people kind of, they did it, but it was more quiet. Now it's like there's an emboldened to like want to argue about stuff. So it's not worth it.
- [08:33]
Sarah Longwell
This group, like many of the groups that we deal with, did not think things were going well in the country. But some of them that was trickling down to Virginia. But there's positions on Virginia were pretty hyper localized. Like what they were talking about were things that were very specific to Virginia. What are some of the biggest local issues you've seen popping up when you talk to voters or when you just in terms of living in the state, hear what's going on? So it's like what is defining it locally? And then how does the chaos at the federal level, how is that informing what people are thinking?
- [09:06]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, the chaos at the federal level is informing much in Virginia. It's perhaps most visible in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. but there are substantial concentrations of federal employees, civilian federal employees in the Richmond area where I am, and then also down on the Atlantic coast, Hampton Roads, as the region is known. There's an enormous port there. It is the gateway, Virginia's gateway to the globe. It's seeing traffic fall because of the Trump tariffs, but there are also a good number of defense bases around that area and supporting federal civilian employment. So the chaos, your word, in Washington is really sweeping across the state, principally along that urban suburban corridor that runs down Interstate 95 and then swings east at Richmond toward the seacoast on Interstate 64. And that's where the economic strength of Virginia is concentrated, where the intellectual strength of Virginia is concentrated, though the folks at UVA and Virginia Tech would probably argue otherwise. But it's also where the political strength is concentrated. And so pocketbook issues, personal security, personal economic security, these are big deals. The dubs which we listen to, there was someone from Loudoun county, someone from Prince William County. These are the outer Washington suburbs that 40 years ago were heavily rural and are now quite suburban and quite wealthy. They are also areas where the Democrats have done some surprisingly well, largely because of population growth and the diversity of that population. Prince William county is now the second largest county in Virginia, second largest jurisdiction just below Fairfax. But like Fairfax county, it's majority non white. So the levels of diversity as well as the growth of the population and in Virginia have generated enormous opportunities, particularly for the Democrats.
- [11:31]
Sarah Longwell
Let me ask you about the demographic change really quick because you said overnight, but I think you did mean in a many, many decades window.
- [11:38]
Jeff Shapiro
Yes, as I said, in the demographic sense. To clarify, you know, the Asian and Hispanic presence were pretty much negligible in the late 70s, you know, single percentage points, now both comfortably double digits. So now a state that historically sort of stood apart from the nation is now very much reflective of the nation.
- [12:01]
Sarah Longwell
So part of why I was talking about chaos, I didn't mean it in the way that somebody in the Midwest might look at what's happening in D.C. and it feels far away. And like everything they do there is stupid and we do things smarter here. What I meant by CASP was more like doge, where the sort of cutting of so many federal jobs in such a slash and burn kind of way, like, directly impacts a lot of people in Northern Virginia.
- [12:28]
Jeff Shapiro
Oh, and just to give you an idea, you know, historically, Virginia's conservative political elite were forever decrying the fiscal excesses of big federal government. And it was an article of faith that a Virginia politician was committed to fiscal sanity. Well, here we are, 20, 25, and depending on the arithmetic or how one does the arithmetic, roughly A third, about 30% of the economy of this state, the gross state product, can be attributed to federal largesse, direct and indirect. So in a place like Northern Virginia, it's not just the people who work for Uncle Sam. It's the people who work for those giant contractors hired by Uncle Sam and then the restaurateurs and the parking lot operators and the various services that support all of the above. I'll put it this way. National politics in Virginia can be local politics, right?
- [13:37]
Sarah Longwell
Going back to, though, the hyperlocal issues. So they were bringing up the data centers. But are there other things that you feel like are driving this election besides national politics? Like, what are some of the local issues people seem really focused on?
- [13:53]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, on the data centers. Virginia has more data centers than any state in the Union north of 400. Also, the amount of electricity gobbled by these data centers is considerable. It's now estimated to be roughly 25% of the juice generated within Virginia is being drawn down by these data centers. The data centers, while concentrated in Northern Virginia, are popping up elsewhere. These are not just consumer issues, but quality of life issues for Virginians, particularly in rural Virginia. Areas of the state that are strongly Republican and, one would assume, strongly supportive of business are pushing back on a lot of these data centers. So it's an issue that has application in the cities, the suburbs, and. And the countryside. There are a lot of issues in this gubernatorial campaign that are somewhat local in application, that are largely getting the short shrift in this discourse, if one cares to call it that, between Abigail Spanberger and Winsome Earl Sears, largely because of the overpowering national environment in which this campaign is being waged. So, for example, the big beautiful bill is going to mean a significant drain in terms of tax revenue in Virginia. We have an expanded Medicaid program that's already about $600 million in the red. That hole is going to get even bigger because of what we're looking at under the Trump reconciliation bill. The issues of higher education, in particular the governance of higher education, especially at the University of Virginia, one of the targeted universities by the Trump administration. This is an issue that's generating some chatter, but not a lot at the highest levels of our politics. And another big issue is this continuing learning loss largely attributed to Covid. That gap still has not been closed. And, and that was a huge issue for soon to be former governor Republican Glenn Youngkin when he was narrowly elected four years ago. So there's a lot going on that has not a lot to do with Donald Trump. That's not getting a lot of conversation, not generating a lot of conversation. And I might add, of course, housing is a huge problem in Virginia, particularly in urban and suburban Virginia. There are a number of jurisdictions, Alexandria, Richmond, where I am, that have adopted programs to promote expansion of housing stock. And it's generating a lot of pushback among residents who were worried that, you know, on their lots or their nearby lots will emerge three story buildings where, you know, ranchers once stood.
- [17:17]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [17:18]
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- [18:05]
Sarah Longwell
All right, Republicans, as you noted, they squeaked out the races for governor, lieutenant governor and Attorney general all by less than two points four years ago. That took winning over some people who are more democratic in their orientation but are persuadable. And I talked to a lot of those people at the time who sort of felt like, yeah, Glenn Youngkin's a normal guy. And they were really frustrated about prices and he sort of squarely focused on grocery prices and he wore a zip up vest and everyone was like, he seems all right. We got Biden right here. It was also right after sort of the Afghanistan pullout, we were still battling Covid. So some of this group had voted for youngin in 2021 and some were had gone into this keeping an open mind about Winsome Sears. Like they weren't just going to reflexively vote against the Republican, but she had pretty clearly disqualified herself to them. Let's listen.
- [19:01]
Marine Veteran Voter
I really tried to like Winsome. What I didn't share and I don't think they asked me is here. I did four years in Marines, like straight after high school. And I know when some was a once you're a Marine or always a Marine. So I kind of try to like connect there. But it just. She's a little much and just the stuff that she says, just a commercial that she's like launched and then I have to talk to my kids are 8 and 5. Like, what do you mean about this stuff? And so, yeah, it's just a little, well, too much for me. But I understand why you have to, I guess create some hysteria and some scare to get people to vote for you. But yeah, I just don't like the tactics being behind it and what's being said on Winsome's end. So there's a lot of optimism. If everything goes, I guess I think it's going to happen.
- [19:43]
Skeptical Voter
I have absolutely no idea who she is. So I had to go research and figure out, you know, what does she stand for if anything? Or is she just the anti Abigail Spanberger? I couldn't really find any way that she spent her time as lieutenant governor wisely. Did she do any sort of economic development? Did she do anything to really help the citizens of Virginia? And I couldn't really come to any conclusion other than she just sat in office.
- [20:09]
Sterling Resident
My husband's Jamaican, so when we found out first she was military and so that was a, okay, let's check her out. She's a woman. I was excited about that. She was Jamaican, so I thought, wow, this might be like someone we could get behind and support. But then when I peeled back and I kind of fell into this where I didn't find things that made me feel confident that she would be ideal for us. She was just a good running mate to diversify the ticket for Youngkin.
- [20:34]
Concerned Voter 1
It's a huge turnoff with Searles in that she's putting on the Donald Trump mask. They try to behave like him. Donald Trump is coated in, like, a magic fairy dust of being an authentic jerk. So he gets away with everything. But when people try to mimic him, it doesn't work. He's a once in our lifetime, hopefully character. So she reminds me of someone who is bringing that same attempt to be like him, but it doesn't work. It makes you look weird. Honestly, in my viewpoint, the way she.
- [21:06]
Parent Voter
Has, you know, I am speaking like, all that obnoxious stuff. You shouldn't have to carry yourself like that. You should carry your age. You should be respectful, have some grace, have some respect for yourself, because it's looking bad on the kids. The kids are seeing you up here acting crazy, and then you go to different colleges and you're fussing at people and you get booed at. Because I was there when she got booed at Norfolk State. So, like the historic black college, and they're booing at you, you know, and you're yelling at folks, talking about, you're gonna listen to me. Very nasty, and I ain't voting for it. I have friends that are transgender. You know, I even had this conversation with them earlier today, and they were saying that, you know, we're for her. You know, this, that third. But they're not four shears in the way they looking at it. Like, you know, one word, a comb. You know, she's. I'm just saying for sheer. But they're very with her. You know, they want more. I think it's the confusing part is with the children, you know, have that dialogue with my teenagers. I have teenage boys. And when they saw that commercial, they was like, huh, What? They're changing bathrooms. That's a conversation that me and my husband had to have as well.
- [22:29]
Prince William County Resident
I look at Earl Sears, and I think regardless of the party that she's representing, she would not garner support from the White House. I don't think Donald Trump believes women are capable of holding office. I don't believe he thinks a black woman is going to be capable of holding that office. And I would think in three to six months, he would have some incredibly negative, nasty thing to say about her. So I can't even say I could. I'm going to change my vote and vote for the Republican because I want that layer between us and Donald Trump. I don't think that's there. So I'm going to pivot to the Democrat.
- [23:12]
Sarah Longwell
So what did Glenn Youngkin do? Well, that Winsome has done poorly. It's kind of a softball there. But then what does a Republican need to do to win in 21st century Virginia? And how has that not been what she's done?
- [23:32]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, back in 2021, Glenn Youngkin was very careful about where he stood relative to Donald Trump. He kept him at arm's length. They never appeared together in public. There were a couple of staged phone conversations, but there was nothing that would provide that irrefutable link, if you will, between an aspiring governor and a controversial Republican president. At that point, of course, he was a former president, but Youngkin was clearly also thinking that he might be able to get additional traction out of a gubernatorial win. And we saw him conduct an all but official presidential exploratory campaign that first year because it wasn't clear that Trump then, mired in all of these legal problems, would even be available. What a position to run. And so I think that Youngkin was somewhat aloof, that he talked about some similarities, but he talked about some differences that, that was generally reassuring to voters in 2021. He has since gone full MAGA, and there are a few things that he's been doing during the shutdown, the federal government shutdown, that suggest he's aware that this episode could have fairly grave consequences. In Virginia. For example, he's trying to keep going with state dollars, the nutrition program, snap, if you will, that are federally subsidized. That got a lot of attention outside of Virginia, that, you know, somehow a MAGA type Republican was putting some distance between himself and, and the Republicans in Washington. Winsome Earl Sears has. Well, let's put it this way. Winsome's going to lose some because of some of the positions she's been taking. And there's been this great emphasis on the hot button stuff that is largely important to a Republican base, but not necessarily important to those blocks of disaffected Republicans, maybe Republican leaning independents, on whom Virginia elections ultimately rely. And I think it's important to point out that there's a lot about Sears candidacy that should commend it to voters, at least to pique their curiosity. A woman, a woman of color running as a Republican for, for governor. No black woman has achieved the governorship in the United States. An immigrant, Jamaica born, served in the Marine Corps. But I think it's clear that her candidate skills are somewhat limited. She comes across as very excitable in contrast with Abigail Spanberger, who is very cool, very calm. I'll note that these politicians, these opponents are very much in character all the time. You have Earl Sears with her Urab Marine shtick, and then you have Abigail Spanberger, the former CIA analyst who's always assessing threats, always wary. I joke that hanging around Abigail Spanberger is like being in the presence of a metal detector.
- [27:24]
Sarah Longwell
That's a good way to put it. Here's the thing about Earl Sears campaign that I can't get my head around. So Youngkin wins four years ago because he's running. He's talking about grocery prices, right? While people are feeling the pinch of inflation. And winsome Earl Sears has run a campaign that is almost entirely about trans bathroom stuff. Like, that's all she talks about. I see these ads. I don't even live in Virginia, but I'm still getting all of these ads, which are constant. So you have these people, what they're talking about in the clips is they're like, oh, man, my kids keep seeing these commercials and I sort of have to explain it to them. But instead of it working as something that's scaring them into having to vote for the Republican, it's more that they are annoyed that she keeps talking about this because now they have to have these sort of uncomfortable conversations. And she's not focusing on any economic issues. I mean, she's just not. To me, that is the big shift in this race. I mean, obviously, I don't think she's a particularly. She's great on paper, as you note. And then you hear them sort of saying this like, well, I. I knew she was a Marine, so I was interested. And then I got a look at her and thought, oh, my gosh, she seems crazy. Which she does come off as pretty.
- [28:38]
Jeff Shapiro
Nuts, by the way. I apologize for interrupting this issue of trans kids. This was an issue that Youngkin harnessed. In 2021. There were these episodes in suburban Northern Virginia that Fox News latched into. I think one of the media monitoring groups said there was something like 80 or 85 freestanding segments on Fox, like in the last month of the 21 campaign, that focused on this episode involving a suspected trans kid. So Youngkin is not entirely innocent on this, and some of the policies that he pushed once he was in office were largely in response to that episode. But in the areas of the state where the votes are most abundant, among them, Northern Virginia, the economy is a source of considerable uncertainty. And so that's really not anything that Winsomerle Sears can talk about now. The cash flow to the state, for the most part, has been relatively positive, though the projections are for significant declines. The next governor is going to have her hands full. And unemployment has been steadily increasing since Trump took office. There was a pause in late summer, but now we're seeing spikes attributed to Doge, the delayed retirements and now the mass firings. So it's tough for someone like winsome Earl Sears to talk about the industrial development gets that have landed on Youngkin's watch when people in the suburbs where the votes count most are, you know, a little jittery over what the future may bring. So the economy is is a tough issue for her candidacy.
- [30:49]
Sarah Longwell
Well, as best I can tell from doing focus groups all over the country with all different kinds of people, the economy is the first, second and third issue that they care about right now. Inflation, housing costs, grocery costs. And so for her to just not really have anything to say on the economy strikes me as one of the reasons among many. But even with all of her flaws, I think she would be doing better if she were focused on the economy. But I hear you that to do that is tough right now in this environment.
- [31:23]
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- [32:24]
Sarah Longwell
So I want to keep going here because we asked people to explain in one go from this group, which is tough sometimes with the voters, but we asked them why they were voting for Spanberger and Myaris for governor and attorney general, right? We were like, kind of, why are you going to split your ticket? And so here's what they said.
- [32:45]
Concerned Voter 1
I'm mad that Jay Jones is pushing me to vote for a Republican because I generally don't vote Republican. I'm so mad about it that that's all I can think about is that I'm going to punish the Democrats by voting for Mayoris and hopefully that'll ease maybe any blowback we get from Trump, maybe appease him. But as far as Spanberger, also a protest vote, I'm just anti Trump at this point. I tried to give him a chance and I want someone, I want the numbers to show that we're tired of his shtick. And this is just one way I feel I can do it.
- [33:18]
Parent Voter
Abigail has humbled herself. I really, I'm really proud of her being very classy about the opponent and her intelligence about certain things and certain aspects. I do respect her as a mother, you know, saying, and her career and how she strived for greatness. But I think for her, she can lead the way. I can debate. I was very surprised on how she carried herself. Humbly. When I say humbly. She did not rebuttal. She did not. You know, sometimes when you go to a debate, you'll see somebody like cut somebody off. I saw the opponent cutting her off tremendously as she was doing her 30 second explanation. I thought it was very, very ladylike and classy of her.
- [34:10]
Sterling Resident
I'm gonna copy her hairs the same thing. Did a good job. No issue with him. He knows. He understands safety and law and order. Nothing there for Spamberger. She hits a lot of things. I care about the economy, investing in our education for our kids and our school system. She supports the environment. I know it was brought up earlier, women's rights for healthcare, that's a big deal. And she served in. I think it was the CIA. So law and order. I think she understands the importance of that.
- [34:37]
Skeptical Voter
So I'm voting for Miyares. I'll start there because he's already Attorney General and based on what I can see of his record, he's doing a fine job. There's nothing for me to complain about. So there's that. And then there's also the J. Jones text scandal, which I really don't approve of for any official trying to seek any sort of office. So I by default went to Miaris. As far as why I'm voting for Spanberger, Earl Sears does not act in a professional way. She doesn't speak in a way that a government official should speak. There's little respect. There's little poise class. I can't vote for that woman regardless of what comes out of her mouth in terms of policies.
- [35:21]
Marine Veteran Voter
I like being safe where I live. I feel like I'll just continue that with him getting elected and then spamber. Hopefully it's like a stepping stone in getting back to where we should be as A country. But yeah, no, I mean that the concerns about having Spamberger in there, I just didn't never thought about it. But yeah, now I was like, shoot, are we gonna pay the price down the road? Something concerned but I mean it's still not gonna change my vote. So the leash will stand up to him hopefully in a respectful manner so we don't get the state doesn't get screwed.
- [35:53]
Parent Voter
I don't know how to say his last name, but it started with him. I think he's a very good guy. He's doing amazing with safety with the children. I agree with everybody's saying here, but do you think she should be in there? No, no. Not even near a door, not even by the door gate or anything. I believe that Sandberger, she does good. I believe that she can really get back to where her things can go smoothly. But I do feel like everybody else that no offense, but Trump is very scared of women. He's going to be threatened by her because one, she's a former CIA. Okay. Two, she's strong minded so she's not going to back down.
- [36:36]
Sarah Longwell
What do you make of how often it came up in the groups that people were slightly worried about how Trump might come after their state if they didn't elect a Republican? Like that's kind of all over this group a little bit. It's this like fear of Trump and almost they want to appease him in that regard. Like they like the idea of there maybe being a Republican in there too because maybe he can like keep Trump from coming after them.
- [37:02]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, you know, in politics if someone thinks he or she can push you around, you know, he usually will. And this is not a state in which Donald Trump has ever been popular. Three times he's been on the general election ballot. So there's much to be gained if you are, you know, if you will, an indigenous Virginia politician, if I can put it that way, you know, pushing back to a Democrat that is pushing back against Donald Trump. The larger issue of this split ballot, you know, it's been 20 years since Virginians installed a divided ticket in high office. 05 Tim Kaine, now the junior senator from Virginia was elected governor. Republicans Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell were elected lieutenant governor and attorney general respectively. These text messages clearly. How shall I describe J. Jones? A man of letters, if you will. You know, this is just absolutely abhorrent, irresponsible behavior and to his disadvantage when you consider all the noise and static and competition for people's attention. All of this news about the text Messages broke through and he's been fully trivialized by this. Now, ordinarily, and I'm really getting in the weeds here, there's drop off from the top of the ballot to the bottom of the ballot. Jason Mieros knows that very well. He was narrowly elected on Glenn Youngkin's coattails in 2021. But what Jones is looking at is a drop off in the Democratic vote and a. An independent leaning vote on which he was banking to win. Now, he was always going to need Spanberger's coattails, you know, momentum from the top of the ticket, but now that's about really all he's got. So if there's a profound drop off in the Democratic vote and Jason Mieris runs up big votes in some of these, vote rich urban suburban locality, say Virginia beach, his hometown next door, Chesapeake in the Richmond area, Chesterfield county, he may very well pull this thing off. And a divided result might look like a headache for both parties going forward, but maybe it will send a signal within Virginia and nationally that there's gotta be some attempt by the parties to work together.
- [39:58]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, you know, like I said at the top, I'm a fan of Abigail Spamberger, but it's been interesting to me, and she's run a very sort of safe campaign. And with this Jay Jones thing, I wonder, and I'll ask you, should she have denounced him or told people not to vote for him? This was like a tough moment for her in the debate with Winsomer All Steel, who for the most part in that debate acted crazy and just like kept interrupting and, you know, really seemed a little bit unhinged. But she got a couple of good moments. And it was basically the moments where Abigail Spamberger kind of clearly didn't want to say something. And one of them was when she was asked, you know, do you still endorse Jay Jones? And she kind of did a very political answer of, well, it's up to the people now, but wouldn't denounce him, wouldn't endorse him. What do you make of the campaign that she's run in light of that? Do you think she handled it appropriately for what voters want, or do you think that she should have handled it differently?
- [41:00]
Jeff Shapiro
I think there are two things here. One, Spanberger has been elected three times in swing congressional districts. The anchors of her district were always the suburbs where she could run up a big vote. But she was always trying to sort of blur the distinctions, you know, calm voters in the red or more Republican, often rural areas of those districts. So I think it's sort of, you know, in her nature to comport herself as non threatening. I think this is also. There's a corollary here between her political style and, you know, that she's always sort of in threat assessment mode as the, you know, the ex CIA operative. But that she has handled the Jones episode as she has, I think, speaks to one of the question marks hanging over her campaign. And that is the level of enthusiasm among an important slice of the Democratic coalition, if not the foundation of the Democratic coalition, that is the black vote. And Jay Jones is a young black lawyer, former legislator, from a dynastic family of civil rights pioneers and former elective officials. I think he's largely seen as a conduit of sorts to that important vote. And so Spanberger has been very careful about how she handles this issue, what she has said, and I think this is important in a way, it suggests that it's now, you know, every candidate for themselves. She said at that debate, we are all running our own races.
- [42:58]
Sarah Longwell
And so you view that as her cutting him not loose. Right. She's not throwing him under the bus, but she is untethering herself.
- [43:07]
Jeff Shapiro
She's definitely watching the debate on television and then also watching Mieris and Jones debate largely in response to what was said. There's clearly light between Abigail Spanberger and Jay Jones, by the way, what stuns me, you know, there's this other event that has made small Jay Jones, and that is he was stopped for speeding doing 116 miles an hour along a stretch of rural interstate. And then, you know, apparently, you know, didn't as much as get his, you know, the back of his hand wrapped. I'm sort of stunned that his primary opponent, Shannon Taylor, who I think on paper was a far stronger candidate for Attorney general, didn't dig that up in her opposition research. I could understand the text messages. That's not something you dig up on a public record. But a speeding charge in the county adjacent to the suburban Richmond county, in which Shannon Taylor, Jones's opponent, has been the elected prosecutor for almost 16 years. What happened there?
- [44:19]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's an interesting point. Do people care about speeding? I mean, I know that's fast. That's very fast.
- [44:25]
Jeff Shapiro
I don't know that it's as much the speeding as how it was handled. And Mieris has made this point that there were about a half a dozen cases on the docket in this largely rural county roughly the same time, similar offenses, reckless driving. And all of these people except Jay Jones ended Up either losing their license or dealing with harsher penalties. Jay Jones was allowed to do community service while working for his political action committee.
- [44:59]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, that's true. You could make that stick, you know, guys, do your opposition research in your primaries.
- [45:06]
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- [45:20]
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- [45:53]
Sarah Longwell
Okay, the reason we're even talking about the attorney General race is because Jay Jones, okay, as we've discussed, the Democratic nominee, he sent a series of texts in 2022 saying that he wanted his political opponents to. To be murdered and separately that he wanted this opponent's kids to die too, because that would change his mind on policy. They were really, really bad texts. And I'll just say, just to throw this out there for myself, I would toss Jay Jones under the bus. Like, if I was Abigail Spamberger, I would say, look, you should vote. And if you vote for the Democrats, you know, vote for me. If you vote for J, just fine. But you, if he gets elected, I am replacing him. And you could pick somebody to replace him with. And I would go directly to Jay Jones and be like, thanks a lot, buddy. This is insane. I'm tossing you the second we're in here. Now, what do I know? You know, I'm not trying to run, run a local race and she's going to win by a lot of points. And so maybe she's doing everything right. Those kinds of things to me are just like completely disqualifying. And it also happens to bubble up at this moment when political violence is very much top of mind for people. So J. Jones apologized for those comments, but these voters still found him a bridge too far. Let's listen to how they interpreted his.
- [47:09]
Skeptical Voter
Apology doesn't really even enter my thought process. The fact that it came off of his fingers as a text message doesn't really matter to me whether he's apologizing for saying it or not. It's the fact that it came out of his brain and entered his fingers.
- [47:25]
Prince William County Resident
It's a exposure of character. Right. I mean, was he having a few cocktails and that loose lips kind of thing happened?
- [47:33]
Concerned Voter 1
I don't know.
- [47:33]
Prince William County Resident
Maybe. But it's, to me, an exposure of true character. So you can apologize over and over again. But you had that thought and you were foolish enough to put it on what we'll call virtual paper.
- [47:47]
Marine Veteran Voter
Yeah, it's just in a version of. Of character who he is. I mean, he's apologized, but I don't know if there'll be future things that could pop up. Just reminds me of Secretary of Defense. He had all those situations with the text, and he just. It seemed like he never stopped. Right. And so. Yeah, no, just. Just make me think if he'll continue using lack of judgment.
- [48:08]
Parent Voter
I understand everybody say his character. He apologized, but let's be honest, that's BS because if you was drinking, that's one thing you.
- [48:17]
Marine Veteran Voter
You.
- [48:17]
Parent Voter
You know, but he is a grown man, and he had the audacity to send that to somebody and it's on his phone. That can jeopardize you. And for you to continue to keep apologizing, that's just like Keith Sweat begging. You know, I just feel like time out for that.
- [48:36]
Sterling Resident
I also just feel like we all said something stupid we regret, and to say, I would only eliminate him for that. No, I'm just balancing the ticket is what I'm doing on mine. Because what he texts I don't like. But I think we all have made mistakes.
- [48:53]
Sarah Longwell
He texted that to one of his Republican colleagues, Correct?
- [48:58]
Jeff Shapiro
Correct. Apparently accidentally, but nonetheless to a Republican who in her reply advised Jones to stop.
- [49:09]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah, you know, it's funny, we were talking about opposition research that didn't come out because the Republicans clearly held it to use. This woman had them in her possession and had clearly shown them to other people. And it was this big piece of oppo. But what happened when it dropped there in Virginia? Like, how did it land? How did Democrats especially elected Democrats? How did it hit them?
- [49:32]
Jeff Shapiro
Well, first of all, it was leaked to the National Review. So the initial report was in a Republican friendly, conservative oriented publication. It got everyone's attention in a hurry. And it was October 2nd. I recall that would have been roughly two weeks into early voting. Virginia has 45 days of early voting this year. It began on September 19th. So I remember thinking, oh, I wonder how many votes Jones has Banked ahead of time, votes that can't be changed. That the Republicans were sitting on this and waited until early October to pop it tells me a couple of things. One, they could, you know, beat their chest and raise their voices and demand, you know, that he'd be removed as a candidate, but his name still would have appeared on the ballot. And the best the Democrats could have done to that point would be to install through a vote of the governing body of the party, a substitute nominee. How you would one would go about, you know, voting for this person through write ins. It was just a mess. One of the scenarios that one one hears, however, is that were Jones to win, and I suspect if he were to win, he would win narrowly, you have a lot of Republicans in the legislature who don't want to deal with him, and there are probably a good number of, there are a lot more Democrats that I think will let on who wouldn't like to deal with him. So would there be pressure on him to resign? I suspect Jay Jones would represent victory as vindication. But the timing is important here because if he were to resign immediately, taking office while the legislature was in session, the legislature with a Democratic majority would install the new attorney general. So let's say Ghazala Hashmi, the, the state senator, first Muslim woman elected to the Virginia legislature, she's elected lieutenant governor, presumably interested in running for governor in 2029. She would probably insist on someone installed as AG who wouldn't be a threat to her candidacy four years on. So it has many, many gears turning and lots of speculation as well. But I mean, I could only imagine the trouble that Republican legislators would heap on an attorney general, Jay Jones. And I'd make this point as well. Jay Jones, young man, practiced law. You talked to some of the people with whom he practiced law, and he's been through a number of firms where one gets the definite impression that rather than practice law, all he's been doing is practicing politics. And if he was pumping out texts, including those that have seemed to have torpedoed his candidacy, I don't know that he's practiced politics particularly well either.
- [52:58]
Sarah Longwell
Well, going back to Spanberger, what do you anticipate is about to happen? Like, is she going to win by Biden margins of 10, is she going to blow it out at 14 or does J. Jones drag her down at all? What does it feel like in Virginia? Is there like this massive desire to correct against Trump? And you know, Spanberger is somebody, like you said, who has won in a lot of swingy places. I Mean, she has the ability, I think, to also, in a place like Virginia, capture just a lot of right leaning independents who look at Sears and go, oh no, I mean, both by the vantage point of Abigail being good, Sears being uniquely bad. If the J. Jones thing hadn't happened at all, I think Abigail Spamberger wins this thing by 14, 15 points. But does he bring her down? What do you think?
- [53:51]
Jeff Shapiro
Again, I mean, I tend to regard the polls as curiosities. You know, sure, there has been. If there's any consistent message from these curiosities, at least in the legitimate independent polling, it's that Spanberger's always been ahead. And if she is, you know, running up majority, you know, better than, and I tend to be fairly conservative about this, better than 7 or 8%. If she was pushing double digits, that could very well save someone like Jay Jones. The issue here is certainly for national audiences, if the Virginia curse holds, does this serve as some sort of a bellwether, an indication of the nation's direction in congressional midterms in 2026? And there's a lot going on in Virginia concurrent with this campaign that we haven't discussed. I mean, for example, the Republicans nominated an openly gay man for Lieutenant governor, John Reid, who in the polls, again, curiosities, has been quite competitive. Never mind Glenn Youngkin tried to force him out of the race after he was duly installed as the nominee of the party. We have as well another measure of the nationalization of Virginia's politics. The legislature was in session this week. To begin, pick your metaphor, a Texas like or a California like, or a Missouri like or an Indiana like or. Or North Carolina like redistricting. What kind of message will that send to Republican voters? Will that really invigorate them? That Democrats are trying to play fast and loose because of national conditions? So there's much that's made this fairly interesting and curious campaign and more national than I think a lot of us would have liked. There are so many things going on in Virginia that are largely unique to the state. They may be emblematic of things that are going on elsewhere in the country, but they're not getting the attention of the candidates. And when I say the candidates, even the legislative candidates at the bottom of the ballot, there are 100 seats in the House of Delegates that are going to be decided. And if there's profound drop off over J. Jones in that third position, what is it going to mean for some of these Democratic legislative candidates in swing districts, of which, depending on how one does the arithmetic, they're anywhere from 8 to 12. Because the Democrats are hoping to fatten their majority in the House of Delegates next week as well. So there's just a mind numbing array of crosswinds shaping this gubernatorial election. Every now and then I rinse it out and I need tummy rinse tonight and I need it more. My kid wears a bed and the smell never leaves. I don't know what to do.
- [57:12]
Parent Voter
I'm always in the dark dark.
- [57:14]
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- [57:18]
Jeff Shapiro
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- [57:32]
Sarah Longwell
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- [57:35]
Jeff Shapiro
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- [57:42]
Sarah Longwell
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- [57:45]
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- [57:58]
Sarah Longwell
Are you following the the early votes? I bet you are, but I'm trying to. And as best I can tell right now from the reporting on the early voting, what it looks like is pretty high turnout. I mean I always worry about the early voting stuff because you just don't know until election day what the in person vote share is going to be. But right now, just from a tracking standpoint, it is tracking to be a pretty high turnout election. Is that right?
- [58:28]
Jeff Shapiro
Yeah. And we're closing in on a million early votes cast and Republicans are much friendlier to the idea of early voting. Glenn Youngkin tried to imbue in them kind of a sense that this is an okay way, a cool way to support your vote, particularly four years ago during the pandemic. But it's always tricky guessing where these votes are going because it means going into a locality, looking at its voting history and deriving from that, the direction of the early vote, which I think can really be tricky.
- [59:08]
Sarah Longwell
I think it can be tricky too. But you talk about the national spotlight on these races. Part of this is just we don't have anything else to chew on and everybody's sort of desperate to look at them as bellwethers and I wonder, you opened up by talking about New Jersey. But if the Democrats do win both of those governors races and again if they're high margin or Low margin. People are going to read a lot into that about the future. Do you think they should?
- [59:39]
Jeff Shapiro
Oh, let's put it this way. I have every confidence that if winsome Earl Sears is defeated on Tuesday, there's going to be a question put to Donald Trump. What do you make of the Virginia result or the Virginia and New Jersey results? And I bet you my gold glove that he trashes Winsome Earl Sears.
- [60:01]
Sarah Longwell
Well, he hasn't endorsed her. I mean, we didn't even talk about that.
- [60:04]
Jeff Shapiro
He kind of sorta. But he didn't as much endorse Earl Sears as he did belittle Abigail Spanberger.
- [60:14]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah.
- [60:15]
Jeff Shapiro
And remember, you, you know, Earl Sears was one of those first Republicans to say after the midterms in 2022, when the Republicans didn't do nearly as well as they'd expected given the Biden presidency and the patterns of midterm elections, that it was time to move on, that Republicans needed to find a better, stronger, different candidate for the presidency come 2024. Oh, and you know, the Trump people just went into orbit over that. And there's been something that I guess passes for contrition on the part of Winsomerle Sears, recognizing that she needs those Trump voters. But based on the president's reaction, he doesn't seem particularly convinced.
- [61:04]
Sarah Longwell
Yeah. Well, just as a very last question before we get out of here, because I'm going to call it for Abigail, Abigail by double digits. She's going to make a great governor. But what do you make of our boy Youngkin? What's his future?
- [61:20]
Jeff Shapiro
You know, sometimes I think rather than a heart rattling around in my chest, I have a civics book.
- [61:25]
Sarah Longwell
Sure.
- [61:26]
Jeff Shapiro
And I think that for the most part, Glenn Youngkin, despite his personal conservatism, a lot of it rooted in his faith hostility on gay marriage, cool at best on LGBTQ issues, that as a creature of Wall street, he's fundamentally innately a Main street economic conservative. And that had he run, won and governed as sort of a center right Republican, say, in the mold of Larry Hogan over in Maryland in a truly blue state, or the example of Linwood Holton, the first Republican governor of Virginia in the modern era, elected in 1969, I think Glenn Youngkin would have had the Democrats eating out of his hands. Let the legislative Democrats eating out of his hand on tax issues and spending on all sorts of things, and the narrative out of Virginia would have been, it's truly a purple state and Glenn Youngkin is a model of bipartisanship. This could be the future. He's shed all that for this sort of, you know, MAGA Republicanism sheathed in better manners. So my guess is that he's going to be using his pack to spend a lot of time in the next year or two visiting significant presidential states, campaigning for gubernatorial candidates, campaigning for U.S. senatorial candidates. He's already visited a number of these states, South Carolina, Iowa. So we will be seeing him again, I'm sure.
- [63:11]
Sarah Longwell
I'm sure. Jeff Shapiro, thank you so much for joining us. And thanks to all of you for listening to another episode of the Focus Group podcast. We will be back next week after the second selection is over, but in the meantime, remember to rate and review us on Apple Podcasts, subscribe to The Bulwark on YouTube and become a Bulwark plus member at thebullwerk.com See you guys next week.
- [63:42]
Jeff Shapiro
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- [65:02]
Sarah Longwell
Oh, you smell amazing, James.
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Jeff Shapiro
Oh thanks mom.
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Sarah Longwell
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Jeff Shapiro
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