The Foreign Affairs Interview: "America the Predatory Hegemon"
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan
Guest: Stephen Walt, Professor of International Relations at Harvard
Date: February 26, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation between Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan and distinguished international relations scholar Stephen Walt. They explore the concept of "predatory hegemony"—Walt’s characterization of Donald Trump’s foreign policy in his second term—and its implications for the future of American power. The discussion ranges from the failures of the post-Cold War liberal order through the evolution of U.S. strategy under Trump, Biden, and beyond. Walt offers an incisive critique of both current and past approaches, and weighs the risks of American decline and global instability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Defining Predatory Hegemony

• Walt’s Framework: Walt distinguishes normal great power behavior from “predatory hegemony.” Where great powers jockey with rivals, a predatory hegemon seeks advantage over everyone—allies included (00:06; 16:32).

  “A predatory hegemon acts that way towards everyone, towards its adversaries certainly, but also towards its allies.” — Stephen Walt (00:06)

• Difference from Realism & Bullying: Walt rebuts claims from the Trump camp that their approach is “realism,” arguing that genuine realists would not alienate allies, nor hollow out national research and industrial bases (13:48).

2. The Rise of Trumpism — Roots in the Post-Cold War Era

• Critique of Liberal International Order: Walt traces Trumpism to “excesses” of hyperglobalization and American overreach (02:24), noting failed efforts to remake the world, hypocrisy in the U.S. commitment to a rules-based order, and domestic economic insecurity.

• Establishment Failures: The U.S. pushed liberalization too widely and rose to believe in its own model as irresistible, ignoring resistance from powers such as Russia and China and neglecting domestic losers from globalization (04:56).

3. Trump’s Foreign Policy Evolution

• Trump I vs. Trump II: Walt observes that during Trump’s first term, “grownups in the room” contained his worst impulses, whereas in the second, loyalists and opportunists enable a foreign policy that directly mirrors Trump’s “predatory” instincts (02:24).

• Policy Shift: Unlike his predecessors or Biden, Trump II applies U.S. leverage—military, economic, and diplomatic—without deference even to long-standing allies.

4. Reflections on the Liberal Order & Allied Reactions

• Allies’ Acceptance & Resentment: Allies tolerated U.S. dominance because it was tempered with consultation, respect, restraint, and the pretense (if not reality) of multilateralism (08:45).

• Mark Carney’s (Canadian PM) Davos Speech: Walt highlights Carney’s regretful tone and sees it as representative of the wider sense of “genuine regret” among allied leaders regarding the U.S. shift towards predation (08:45).

5. Biden’s Approach: Restoration or Correction?

• Biden as a "Restorationist": Biden sought to restore respect for allies and cooperation but continued aspects of Trump’s protectionism, especially on trade and the green agenda (12:05).

  “[Biden] was in a sense mostly an attempt to sort of restore the old order... but it did adopt some elements of the critique that Trump had made in his 2016 campaign.” — Stephen Walt (12:05)

6. Alternative Labels for Trumpism

• Neo-Royalism & Spheres of Influence: Walt concurs these ideas are compatible and points out the rise of elite networks among global leaders mirrors the neo-royalist thesis (19:10).

  “So you could argue that Stacy and Abe and I are now in sort of a trademark war to see whose label gets the most traction.” — Stephen Walt (19:10)

• Spheres of Influence: He warns expanded definitions—trying to limit not just security ties but economic ones (e.g., barring Latin America from Chinese trade)—will backfire (20:38).

7. The Limits and Backlash Against Predatory Hegemony

• Allies’ Calculus: While the U.S. can leverage geography, military, and market size to extract concessions, predatory behavior ultimately pushes partners to hedge, de-risk, and establish new trade ties elsewhere (23:47).

• Diminishing Returns: Allies may initially accommodate but will eventually diversify or resist, especially given unpredictable and escalating U.S. demands (23:47).

  “If you’re a predator, you take the concession and then you start asking for more... flattering and accommodating and appeasing doesn't necessarily buy you very much.” — Stephen Walt (23:47)

• Leverage through Security Guarantees: Repeatedly threatening alliance withdrawal erodes leverage—either because it’s revealed as a bluff, or because once done, the leverage evaporates (28:48).

8. Case Study — U.S.-India Relations

• India’s Hedging: India maneuvers between the U.S., China, and Russia, seeking to avoid dependence and preserve freedom of action. Walt notes this approach is rational in a multipolar world (30:58).

  “It's not going to be comfortable with a relationship with the United States that's we're all take and no give.” — Stephen Walt (30:58)

9. China as Beneficiary & Rival

• China’s Response: China seizes the opportunity to present itself as stable and responsible, especially as the U.S. under Trump II abandons multilateral forums and diplomacy (38:08).

  “The Chinese responded pretty aggressively by linking access to rare earths... Trump has basically, I think, if not surrendered, backed off greatly.” — Stephen Walt (38:44)

• Decline of U.S. Influence: Evidence mounts in global opinion polls—China’s image rises as the U.S. falls (38:08–41:54).

• Trump’s View of Strongmen: Trump’s penchant for “personal diplomacy” with leaders like Xi and Putin is unlikely to yield results but ensures the global spotlight stays firmly on him (42:25).

10. Norm Erosion & Use of Force

• Decline in Restraint: U.S. (and others) move away from longstanding norms on war, territorial acquisition, and political assassination (47:26).

  “There had been a pretty powerful international norm against political assassination...that has been eroding, I think, fairly steadily.” — Stephen Walt (47:26)

• Risks of Precedent: Trump’s willingness to threaten or enact uses of force, even for dubious gains (e.g., proposing to buy Greenland), encourages others to ignore norms (47:26).

11. Foreign Policy Establishment’s Blind Spots

• Slow Decay vs. Sudden Collapse: Walt warns that “the slow degradation of American power, wealth and influence” is harder to perceive and resist, yet could lead to abrupt loss of status (50:15; 51:40).

  “I'm not predicting disaster. Rather, I'm predicting the slow degradation of American power, wealth and influence and security so that we end up in a few years in a much less favorable position...” — Stephen Walt (51:40)

• Accountability Problems: Lack of real consequences for policy failure or lawbreaking undermines democratic governance and trust in U.S. foreign commitments (53:16).

12. Looking Ahead: Restoring U.S. Foreign Policy

• What Should Be Rebuilt or Discarded? Walt would prioritize restoring multilateralism, credibility, and adherence to agreements. However, he warns that the U.S. reputational damage may be lasting, as “the pendulum could swing back again” (54:07).

  “It wasn't that Trump can be seen by the rest of the world as an isolated episode… The United States had done this crazy thing...They'd learned their lesson... Well, we then elected the guy again.” — Stephen Walt (54:07)

• Dangerous Incentives for Autocrats: If legal accountability for Trump officials becomes likely, it increases incentives for undemocratic entrenchment, creating risks seen in other faltering democracies (54:07).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Just because things are bad doesn't mean they can't get worse. And that's...what we're seeing now.” — Stephen Walt (02:24)

• “All great powers are predatory towards their rivals...But a predatory hegemon acts that way towards everyone.” — Stephen Walt (00:06; 16:32)

• “You know, if you’re a predator, you take the concession and then you start asking for more.” — Stephen Walt (23:47)

• “The more likely [legal accountability] appears to be... the greater incentive you give the Trump administration to never be voted out of power.” — Stephen Walt (54:07)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:06 — What is a predatory hegemon?
• 02:24 — Trumpism as reaction to post-Cold War excesses, domestic/global failures
• 04:56 — Failure of the liberal international order
• 08:45 — Mark Carney’s speech & allied responses
• 12:05 — Biden’s foreign policy: restoration or revision?
• 13:48 — Why Trump II is not “realism”
• 16:32 — Defining predatory hegemony & power levers
• 19:10 — Neo-royalism and spheres of influence as alternative frameworks
• 23:47 — Limits of predatory leverage; allies start hedging
• 30:58 — India as an emerging pole and test case
• 38:08 — China’s global strategy & U.S. diplomatic withdrawal
• 41:54 — Trump's shifting China stance and “personal diplomacy”
• 47:26 — Erosion of norms and the rise in global instability
• 50:15–51:40 — Foreign policy establishment’s slow-motion blindness
• 54:07 — What should be restored, discarded, or reimagined in U.S. foreign policy

Conclusion

Stephen Walt’s analysis in this conversation is both sweeping and granular. He paints a sobering portrait of a U.S. foreign policy transformed by predatory hegemony—marked by immediate tactical gains, but likely to result in long-term strategic losses as allies hedge, rivals benefit, global norms erode, and American credibility decays. The episode is a thought-provoking challenge for policymakers, scholars, and concerned citizens alike—offering cautionary lessons on the fragility of international leadership and the dangers of hubris and shortsightedness.