The Foreign Affairs Interview: BONUS – In the Room With Xi Jinping

Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (Editor, Foreign Affairs)
Guest: Nicholas Burns (U.S. Ambassador to China, outgoing)
Date: January 9, 2025

Episode Overview

In this bonus episode, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan sits down with Ambassador Nicholas Burns as he prepares to leave his post in Beijing after nearly three years. The conversation delves into Burns’s unique perspective as the American who’s spent more direct time with Xi Jinping than any other, covering insights into Xi’s worldview, the centralization of power in China, the complex and competitive United States–China relationship, economic trends, youth sentiment in China, the strategic Taiwan and South China Sea dilemmas, the strengthened Russia–China bond, and thoughts on the future of U.S. policy under an incoming Trump administration.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Xi Jinping: The Person and the System

• Concentration of Power:
  Burns compares Xi’s power to Mao Zedong’s, highlighting the shift toward a singular, intensely centralized leadership style, with the Communist Party elevated even above the Chinese state apparatus.

  “Xi Jinping is a supremely powerful leader... You have to go back to Mao to find a Chinese leader with so much power in the system.” (02:00, Burns)

• Strategic Focus:
  China’s foreign policy demonstrates continuity and long-term planning—exemplified by annual foreign ministry visits to Africa for 35 consecutive years.
• Ideological Commitment:
  Where Deng Xiaoping once promoted collective leadership, Xi has steered China in a more ideological direction, mandating party schooling for officials and emphasizing Marxist-Leninist texts.

  “The rise of the party and the rise of a singular rule of a leader.” (05:42, Burns)

2. China’s View of the West—and Vice Versa

• Perceptions of Western Decline:
  Many in the Chinese leadership believe the “east is rising and the west is falling,” though Burns questions their conviction, citing renewed U.S. alliances and China’s recent economic troubles.

  “Some Chinese officials still say the east is rising and the west is falling. I don’t think there’s conviction there and it’s certainly not supported by the facts.” (09:45, Burns)

• Renewal of U.S. Alliances:
  Stronger Indo-Pacific alliances (Japan, Philippines, Australia, the Quad, AUKUS) and U.S. strengths in AI and technology are seen as shifting the balance back towards the U.S.

3. China’s Economy and Social Unrest

• Reluctance on Major Reform:
  Despite global expectations, China’s leadership shows little interest in dramatic stimulus or foreign investment reform. Instead, it doubles down on manufacturing and exports (electric vehicles, batteries, etc.), causing global reactions and tariffs.

  “[They’re] exporting the excess at artificially low prices...dumping it...a design to kill the manufacturing capacity of many of our countries.” (12:35, Burns)

• Youth Unemployment and Social Pessimism:
  High youth unemployment is masked by changed reporting methods. Many students postpone workforce entry by staying in school. Despite pessimism, Burns notes persistent Chinese pride and nationalism.

  “Every Chinese young person can look at their grandmother and grandfather and see that they...are living better...that’s absolutely true.” (16:25, Burns)

4. Diplomatic Approach: Public Criticism vs. Quiet Diplomacy

• The Double Mandate:
  Burns discusses being both a diplomat to the government and an ambassador to the Chinese people, balancing public criticism with behind-the-scenes negotiations.

  “You’ve got to do both as an ambassador. You’re ambassador to the people of China and also to the government of China, and they’re two very different things.” (18:34, Burns; echoing from 00:05)

• Importance of People-to-People Ties:
  Emphasizes student exchanges (277,000 Chinese students in the U.S.), warning of the dangers of a diminished American presence and linguistic bench in China.

5. U.S. Student Policy & National Security

• A Balanced Stance on Student Flows:
  Burns defends admitting Chinese students, with strict adherence to security screenings (per Trump-era orders) but advocates for the educational and strategic benefits.

  “We are very mindful of trying to separate out Chinese students who are going...for positive reasons...as long as they’re not a security threat.” (22:45, Burns)

• The “Soft Power” Argument:
  Exposure to U.S. democracy is valuable for returning Chinese students and for American competitiveness in tech.

6. Taiwan: The Flashpoint

• Unchanged Strategic Ambition:
  China’s drive to assimilate Taiwan remains clear and steadfast; U.S. adherence to the “One China Policy” and supply of defensive aid continues.

  “They intend to bring Taiwan...back into the People’s Republic of China. Of course, the Chinese government has not ruled...Taiwan since 1895.” (27:09, Burns)

• Consistent, Vigilant U.S. Stance:
  The U.S. urges peaceful resolutions and emphasizes alliance-backed deterrence.

  “We have to be prepared every day and we can’t think about timelines five years from now or 10 or 15 years from now.” (30:09, referencing Adm. Sam Paparo)

7. South China Sea & U.S. Alliances

• Assertive Chinese Claims, U.S. Response:
  Chinese maritime claims and PLA Navy actions challenge international law; the U.S. underscores its treaty obligations to the Philippines.
• Alliances as a Force Multiplier:
  Burns repeatedly frames U.S. alliances as the bedrock of American global power.

  “Don’t forsake your allies, keep them close, honor them and support them.” (33:55, Burns)

8. PLA Turbulence and Xi’s Longevity

• Ongoing Purges:
  Xi’s anti-corruption campaign continues to sweep up military officers, creating instability and raising questions about PLA unity and readiness.

9. Competition, “Containment,” and Engagement

• Bipartisan U.S. Approach:
  Even as Biden continued Trump’s competitive posture, Burns says “containment” is not the term, but “pushback” to China’s global assertiveness is deliberate and broad (military, tech, trade, human rights).

  “80% of what I have done here...is on the competitive side. But that 20% in the engagement side is very important.” (40:44, Burns)

• Engagement Areas:
  Despite fierce rivalry, the U.S. pursues cooperation on climate, fentanyl, military deconfliction, and specific diplomatic hostage needs.

10. The Russia–China Partnership

• Strengthened Relationship:
  The Sino-Russian bond is at Cold War-era highs, driven by personal ties (Xi-Putin), and evident in China’s material support for Russia on Ukraine.
• Consequences and Limits:
  Burns questions the partnership’s long-term durability, notes European distrust toward China, and points to China’s limited role in other global crises.

  “China is not acting like a great power...it rarely rolls up its sleeves and spends political capital the way that a normal great power would do.” (44:35, Burns)

11. Anticipating Trump’s Return

• Chinese Debates on Trump 2.0:
  The Chinese establishment is split on whether a second Trump administration could be advantageous or damaging for China.
• Call for Continuity:
  Burns stresses the importance of bipartisan consistency and expresses commitment to supporting his proposed successor, Senator Perdue.

12. Parting Reflections and Diplomatic Lessons

• Blending Competition with Engagement:
  Final advice is to compete vigorously—especially on tech and alliances—but always keep diplomatic lines open to avoid dangerous escalation.
• Historical Parallels:
  Draws lessons from the Cold War: engagement with adversaries didn’t signal weakness, and the U.S.-Soviet dialogues were crucial for global stability.

  “We’re going to compete with China. But again, we have to live with China in peace. And so that’s where diplomacy comes in...it’s an 80, 20 balance.” (50:34, Burns)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Xi’s style and the Party-State:

  “What’s really been pronounced here...is the rise of the party and the rise of a singular rule of a leader.” (05:42, Burns)

• On U.S.–China relations:

  “We have enormous differences between us. And I think that’s at the heart of all of our interactions with the Chinese.” (03:27, Burns)

• On Chinese economic policy:

  “They’re exporting the excess at artificially low prices...and there will be consequences. And now the Chinese are feeling the consequences.” (12:10, Burns)

• On societal connections:

  “It’s not a nice thing to do to keep our societies connected in a very difficult relationship. It’s a necessary thing to do so that we can be effective...” (21:18, Burns)

• On U.S. alliances:

  “Don’t forsake your allies, keep them close, honor them and support them.” (33:55, Burns)

• On balancing competition and engagement:

  “We’re going to compete with China. But again, we have to live with China in peace. And so that’s where diplomacy comes in...it’s an 80, 20 balance.” (50:34, Burns)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Xi Jinping’s Worldview & Leadership Style: 02:00–06:21
• Chinese Views on U.S. Decline: 06:21–10:15
• China’s Economy & Youth Discontent: 10:41–16:25
• Public Criticism vs. Diplomacy – Role of Ambassador: 18:06–22:25
• Chinese Students in America & Tech Competition: 22:25–24:47
• Taiwan Policy and Tensions: 26:26–30:09
• South China Sea & Alliance Structure: 31:09–34:50
• PLA Instability under Xi: 34:50–36:03
• Containment or Competition? Bipartisan U.S. Views: 36:03–41:58
• Sino-Russian Relationship & its Limits: 41:58–46:32
• Preparing for the Next U.S. Administration: 46:32–48:23
• Final Lessons: Competition, Engagement, and Diplomacy: 48:23–51:39

Tone and Final Thoughts

The episode’s tone is deeply analytical, candid, and pragmatic—reflecting both the gravity of the U.S.–China rivalry and the complexity requiring deft, nuanced diplomacy. Burns repeatedly insists on the necessity of both vigorous competition and careful, consistent engagement, evoking Cold War lessons for this new era of great power politics. He leaves listeners with an urgent reminder: while competition is inevitable, “We have to live with China in peace.”