Summary of Podcast Episode: "Bonus: Is America on the Path to Authoritarianism?"
Released on February 21, 2025, “Bonus: Is America on the Path to Authoritarianism?” is a compelling episode of The Foreign Affairs Interview, hosted by Dan Kurtz-Phelan of Foreign Affairs Magazine. In this episode, senior editor Eve Fairbanks interviews distinguished scholars Stephen Levitsky and Lucan Way about their insightful essay, “The Path to American Authoritarianism.” The discussion delves into the alarming signs of democratic erosion in the United States, drawing parallels with global trends toward competitive authoritarianism.
1. Introduction to the Issue
Eve Fairbanks sets the stage by highlighting concerns that, a month into Donald Trump's second term, the U.S. is exhibiting early signs of democratic erosion. Levitsky and Way argue that these developments could lead to an irreversible transformation of the American political system, potentially undermining global democracy.
Key Quote:
Stephen Levitsky: “As long as Trump is the most popular Republican, as long as he is more popular within Republican ranks than anyone who opposes him, you're not going to see defection.” (00:05)
2. Understanding Competitive Authoritarianism
Definition and Characteristics
Stephen Levitsky defines competitive authoritarian regimes as systems where multiparty elections occur, and opposition parties are legal and competitive. However, these elections are skewed through the systematic weaponization of state machinery against rivals, making the competition unfair.
Key Points:
- Elections exist but are not genuinely competitive.
- State mechanisms are abused to favor incumbents.
- Examples include Poland in 2023.
Notable Quote:
Stephen Levitsky: “Competitive authoritarian regimes may look democratic, but they're not democratic, because systematic weaponization and abuse of the state... tilt the playing field against the opposition.” (02:27)
Historical Context: Lucan Way emphasizes that unlike past authoritarian regimes that outright banned opposition, modern competitive authoritarianism maintains a facade of democracy, making it harder to recognize.
Key Quote:
Lucan Way: “Now, close to 80% of autocracies or authoritarian regimes have some sort of multi-candidate elections for the executive.” (04:58)
3. Trump’s Consolidation of Power within the Republican Party
First vs. Second Term Dynamics
Dan Kurtz-Phelan contrasts Trump’s first term, where he lacked control over the Republican Party and his policy initiatives were often thwarted by establishment figures, with his second term, where he now wields substantial influence and loyalty from the party.
Key Points:
- In the first term, Trump had to rely on conservative technocrats and mainstream Republicans.
- In the second term, he has established near-complete control over the Republican Party.
- Example: The House of Representatives stepping aside, allowing Trump to govern with loyalists (07:02).
Notable Quotes:
Lucan Way: “He had no plan coming in... various efforts to prosecute people like John Kerry and Hillary Clinton sort of never really saw the light of day.” (05:40)
Stephen Levitsky: “He completely owns the Republican Party. There's no dissent.” (07:55)
4. Methods of Authoritarian Consolidation
Weaponization of the Bureaucracy
Lucan Way explains that modern democracies rely on an independent bureaucracy to prevent authoritarian misuse of state power. Authoritarian leaders purge these bureaucratic institutions to weaken opposition.
Key Points:
- Attack on independent civil servants is a primary step toward authoritarianism.
- Example: Hungary, Turkey, and India have seen populist leaders undermine their bureaucracies (08:48).
Defamation and Legal Pressure
Stephen Levitsky discusses how authoritarians use legal mechanisms like defamation lawsuits to intimidate and weaken the opposition, often settling cases to avoid empowering media scrutiny.
Key Quotes:
Stephen Levitsky: “These are settlements of defamation suits that the companies almost certainly would have won. But because their parent companies had other economic interests... they decided to settle.” (19:12)
5. Challenges for Opposition and Internal Defections
Lack of Internal Checks
Both scholars highlight the absence of dissent within the Republican Party, making it difficult for opposition to Trump to gain traction without facing severe career repercussions.
Key Points:
- The resignation of figures like Danielle Sassoon exemplifies the high personal cost of opposing Trump.
- The Republican Party’s allegiance to Trump stifles internal opposition (24:02).
Notable Quotes:
Lucan Way: “It's really hard to imagine that many would follow that path.” (25:01)
Stephen Levitsky: “As long as Trump is the most popular Republican, ... you're not going to see defection.” (26:02)
6. Potential Outcomes and Resilience of U.S. Democracy
Scenarios Post-2028 Election
Levitsky speculates on the future, considering whether Trump’s actions will significantly tilt the playing field or if institutional safeguards will hold.
Key Points:
- Possibility of grassroots voter intimidation and economic coercion.
- Uncertainty about the extent of regulatory and economic manipulation.
- Optimism hinges on the resilience and financial capacity of the private sector to support opposition (28:49).
Sources of Resilience:
- Strong capitalist economy with wealth distributed across society.
- Robust legal and institutional frameworks.
Notable Quotes:
Stephen Levitsky: “It's still impossible, at least for me, to anticipate just how far that level of intimidation and co optation is going to go.” (30:52)
Lucan Way: “The legal system is much stronger, the institutions are much stronger.” (31:49)
7. Sources of Optimism and Potential Resistance
Early Signs of Pushback
Despite the grim outlook, both scholars note emerging forms of resistance, such as legal challenges and public pushback against authoritarian measures.
Key Points:
- Legal battles initiated by figures like Danielle Sassoon.
- Potential for constitutional crises prompting judicial resistance.
- Corporate capitulation may reverse under economic strain (35:18).
Notable Quotes:
Lucan Way: “I think that his kind of fire hose of firing officials and stuff is almost certainly going to lead to a variety of catastrophic outcomes and decrease his popularity.” (35:47)
Stephen Levitsky: “US democracy, for all of its incredible weaknesses, dysfunction, and vulnerabilities, is going to be hard to kill outright.” (40:56)
Addressing Opposition Weariness
Levitsky acknowledges the emotional and practical exhaustion faced by those resisting authoritarian shifts, emphasizing the collective action problem where individual sacrifices may undermine broader democratic efforts.
Key Quote:
Stephen Levitsky: “It's hard to get up out of bed in the morning and continue to fight for democracy when... it can be debilitating.” (32:54)
8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts
The discussion concludes with a balanced view of the precarious state of American democracy. While the threat of authoritarianism is real and escalating, there are still avenues for resistance and resilience through legal challenges, public activism, and the inherent strengths of U.S. institutional frameworks.
Key Takeaways:
- The U.S. is at a critical juncture where the consolidation of power by Trump poses significant risks to democratic norms.
- Understanding competitive authoritarianism is crucial to recognizing and countering these threats.
- The resilience of American democracy rests on both institutional safeguards and active civic engagement.
Final Quote:
Stephen Levitsky: “There is a good chance that there'll be greater opposition once there's a little blood in the water.” (41:50)
This in-depth conversation underscores the urgency for American society to recognize and address the subtle shifts toward authoritarianism. By drawing lessons from global instances of democratic decline, Levitsky and Way provide a framework for understanding and potentially mitigating the erosion of democratic institutions in the United States.