Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode: Can India Change Course?
Date: September 6, 2024
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (A), Foreign Affairs Magazine
Guest: Pratap Bhanu Mehta (B), Indian political theorist and commentator
Interviewer: Kanishk Tharoor (C)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the tumultuous outcome of India’s 2024 national elections, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term but his party—the BJP—lost its outright majority. The conversation, primarily with eminent political observer Pratap Bhanu Mehta, examines what this surprise result means for the trajectory of Indian democracy, the endurance of Hindu nationalism, institutional shifts, coalition governance, the opposition’s prospects, and India’s economic and foreign policy challenges.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The 2024 Election: A Turning Point for Indian Democracy

• Surprising Outcome: Despite predictions of a sweeping BJP victory, Indian democracy "triumphed against the odds" (01:04). Modi's party lost its majority, empowering both opposition and independent institutions.
• Democracy’s Breathing Room:

  "It has given Indian democracy breathing room...the opposition is empowered...the space for contestation certainly has expanded."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (02:06)

• Challenges Remain: Modi's authority is diminished, but democracy's future depends on the government's next moves and the opposition’s response (02:06).

Why Did the BJP Suffer Setbacks?

• Fatigue with Modi and BJP:
  • Voters displayed "10-year fatigue," especially in areas where Modi campaigned vigorously and used divisive rhetoric (03:20).
  • Erosion of the transformative economic image projected by Modi—India's economic progress did not match expectations.
• Successes Creating Exhaustion:
  • Key Hindu nationalist agenda items (Ram temple in Ayodhya and abrogation of Kashmir’s special status) were accomplished, leading to a sense of “what next?” and less urgency among voters (03:20–07:15).

The Endurance and Evolution of Hindu Nationalism

• Electoral vs. Cultural Project:

  "Hindu nationalism operates at two levels...as electoral consolidation, but also as a cultural project...rewriting Indian history [and] changing common sense amongst Hindus..."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (07:41)

  • Though electoral fatigue is evident, the cultural agenda—particularly anti-Muslim polarization—continues with “incredible vigor.”
• No Let-Up in Violence and Hate Speech:
  • Despite BJP’s political setback, "no let up in violence against Muslims...no let up in hate speech from senior functionaries of the BJP," especially in states facing upcoming elections (10:04–13:23).

Coalition Politics and Governance

• A Coalition Era Returns:
  • Modi is unaccustomed to ruling in coalition and has looked "out of touch" post-election. The government has had to reverse or stall initiatives, sometimes under pressure from allies (10:04–13:23).
  • Example: Controversial legislation affecting Muslim WAQF boards was slowed, and BJP appears open to proposals (like a caste census) it previously rejected.
• Nature of Coalitions:
  • Mehta argues that current party fragmentation stems from national parties' institutional weaknesses, not India’s diversity. Recent coalition partners are not strong opponents of Hindu nationalism, marking a rightward shift (14:01–17:06).

The Role and Challenges of the Opposition

• Emerging Assertiveness:

  "Just by mere virtue of the fact that we have an opposition, just that fact is actually helpful for Indian democracy."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (17:40)

  • The empowered opposition emboldens other institutions (judiciary, media) and increases scrutiny on the government (17:40–20:57).
• Difficulties for Opposition:
  • BJP’s existential tactics can undermine opposition parties. Unity may be tested when sharing power in states.
  • To challenge the BJP, opposition must show it is a credible governing alternative and not just a coalition of convenience.

Opposition Strategy: Ideology vs. Governance

• Red Lines Required:
  • The opposition cannot avoid “core moral values.” It must clearly oppose targeting minorities, while also addressing bread-and-butter issues for voters (21:17).
  • On issues like a uniform civil code, the opposition must craft principled, modern responses that balance gender equality and cultural diversity (21:17–25:15).

Indian Institutions: Judiciary and Press

• Democratic Backsliding and Uncertainty:
  • India ranked poorly on civil liberties, press freedom, judicial independence, and state-sanctioned vigilante violence, even as elections remained competitive (26:09).
  • Recent weeks saw some increased judicial independence, but applications are inconsistent: "One step forward, three step sideways and one step backwards" is the view among Delhi lawyers (26:09–29:16).
  • Television media remains generally loyal to the regime; prosecutions of critics like Arundhati Roy are ongoing (29:16–29:49).

Economic Struggles and Missed Transformations

• Inequality and Stagnation:
  • "Inequality in the Indian economy has grown"; while the poorest are cushioned by welfare, the middle class struggles and private investment is stagnant (30:13).
  • The economy is being propped up by government infrastructure investment, not private sector growth. Human capital and education shortfalls undermine broader development (30:13–32:46).

Foreign Policy: Image vs Reality

• Great Power Aspirations:
  • Modi’s assertion of India as a global power resonates domestically, but in practice, India faces “more precarious” security, notably with China (33:09).
  • India’s core non-aligned/multi-aligned policy endures; relationships with both the U.S. and Russia/Iran continue (33:09–35:56).
• Civilizational State Rhetoric:
  • “Civilization state” is used as coded ethnic nationalism, but India distinguishes itself from Russia/China by lacking militarism or expansionist attitudes—India remains “sovereignist,” obsessed with borders rather than civilizational expansion (36:13–39:06).

Reflections on Core Illiberalism

• Against Essentialism:

  "All democracies have a strand of ethno nationalist supremacism within...it’s an inevitable consequence of nation state creation."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (39:38)

  • Mehta rejects the notion that Modi revealed a hidden majoritarian essence in India; the contest between pluralism and majoritarianism is not new.
  • Resistance to Hindu nationalism often originates from rural and poorer constituencies, not elites.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Modi’s Diminished Aura:

  "He seems to be quite out of touch and out of sorts... it's really the first time... you actually just feel he's out of touch."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (10:04)

• On Hindu Nationalism’s Shift:

  "There was a sense that, okay, you've accomplished many of the things you set out to accomplish under the guard of Hindu nationalism. But...the cultural project...still proceeds actually with incredible vigor."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (07:41)

• On Coalition Governance:

  "None of the coalition partners have actually come out and taken strong exception...the default has actually switched slightly more rightwards than perhaps we were used to in previous rounds."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (14:01–17:06)

• On Economic Disappointment:

  "India has actually become a much harder place to do business. What that also means is that you’re not investing in a couple of other critical areas, particularly education."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (30:13)

• On Illiberal Core Arguments:

  "These arguments are too ahistorical and too essentialist...It's an inevitable consequence of modern nationalism...Resistance is often from the poor and rural India rather than elites."
  – Pratap Bhanu Mehta (39:38)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:02] — Framing of the election result and Indian democracy’s resilience
• [03:20] — Reasons behind BJP’s losses: Modi fatigue, economic disillusionment, exhaustion of Hindutva agenda
• [07:41] — Limitations of electoral pushback against Hindu nationalism; continued anti-Muslim violence
• [10:04] — Modi’s political disarray post-election; government’s administrative confusion
• [14:01] — Coalition governance: why it arises and its inherent limitations
• [17:40] — The opposition’s renewed relevance and institutional impact
• [21:17] — The opposition’s strategic dilemmas: ideology vs. bread-and-butter issues, civil code debates
• [26:09] — State of judiciary, civil liberties, and media after the election
• [30:13] — Analysis of India’s economic underperformance
• [33:09] — Foreign policy: perceptions vs reality; India’s strategic continuity
• [36:13] — The “civilizational state” concept and its limits
• [39:38] — Critique of essentialist views of Indian illiberalism and majoritarianism

Conclusion

This episode presents a nuanced diagnosis of Indian politics post-2024 election. While Modi remains in power, his authority and the BJP’s dominance are notably eroded, possibly reinvigorating India’s democratic checks and contestation. However, enduring Hindutva cultural politics, institutional weakness, and uncertain economic prospects leave the future open. Mehta cautions against seeing India's recent history as a simple expression of a hidden authoritarian core, emphasizing the ongoing, dynamic struggle over India’s democratic identity.