Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview – "Can Israel Save Itself?"
Date: September 4, 2025
Host: Dan Kurtz-Phelan (Foreign Affairs Magazine)
Guests: Ami Ayalon (former Commander of the Israeli Navy and Head of Shin Bet) interviewed by Eve Fairbanks (Senior Editor)

Overview

This episode examines Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza nearly two years after Hamas’s October 7 attacks, focusing on the lack of an endgame or “day after” strategy from Israeli leaders. Ami Ayalon, with a deep background in military and security, argues that Israel is fighting a war it cannot truly win by military means and must pivot toward a political solution, namely the creation of a Palestinian state. The conversation explores the interplay between military action, political paralysis, regional dynamics, and the critical role the international community must play to secure a peaceful future.

Key Discussion Points

1. The "Unwinnable" War and Misconceptions of Victory

• Ayalon differentiates between conventional wars between states and today’s state-vs-organization conflicts, where classic military victories are unattainable.
• Quote: "A terror organization will never rise a white flag. A terror organization will never surrender. And this is something that we cannot understand and we cannot accept." (Ami Ayalon, 03:05)
• He emphasizes the futility of pursuing solely military solutions, describing current Israeli strategy as counterproductive—leading not to peace but to endless cycles of violence and deep humanitarian crisis.

Timestamps:

• Types of war and Israeli misconceptions (02:28–05:51)
• The government’s lack of political vision (06:29–09:10)

2. Political Paralysis and Avoidance of “The Day After”

• Ayalon underscores the absence of a political objective in the current Israeli government, arguing the ruling coalition represents "the most extreme wing of Jewish radicalism" and suppresses majority Israeli opinion.
• He sees the refusal to define a postwar vision as a strategy in itself, rooted in societal fear of internal conflict over Israel’s future.
• Quote: "The government which is led by the most extreme wing of Jewish radicalism and Jewish racism or superiority, well, they are leading us against the will of the most Israeli citizens." (Ami Ayalon, 08:26)

Timestamps:

• The missing political goal (06:29–09:10)
• Fear of confronting Israel’s own division (09:10–09:40)

3. The Missed Diplomatic Opportunity and Lessons from History

• Ayalon frames Israel’s real victory not in recent military successes, but in the 2002 Arab League summit, where Arab states accepted Israel’s permanence and the two-state solution.
• He contends the Abraham Accords ignored the Palestinians, fueling Hamas’s resolution to act violently to reassert Palestinian presence in the regional narrative.
• Quote: "We refuse to recognize our victory. Why? Because we stop to believe in diplomacy. Because we believe that all the world is against us. It is something very, very deep in the Jewish history." (Ami Ayalon, 12:00)
• Quote: "Abraham Accord was based on Palestinians do not exist. And it was a huge mistake... So Hamas understood that if this vision will be created, Palestinians as a people will disappear from history." (Ami Ayalon, 13:15)

Timestamps:

• Israel’s historical “victory” and its missed acknowledgement (09:40–14:03)
• Abraham Accords, Biden’s Middle East vision, and their fallout (13:00–14:00)

4. Regional Dynamics and the Role of Iran

• The Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains a unifying cause in the Arab and Muslim worlds, regardless of the shifting strategic landscape (e.g., Iran’s threat, normalization with some Arab states).
• Ayalon highlights that failure to address Palestinian aspirations creates openings for Iran and other regional actors to exploit regional grievances.
• Quote: "Whoever will rise the flag of 'I am fighting for Palestine' will lead the Arab world. And this was what Iran did... It is not a minor conflict between Israelis and Palestinians anymore. It is a major regional conflict." (Ami Ayalon, 16:23)

Timestamps:

• Iran’s and the region’s stake in the conflict (15:12–18:34)

5. The Urgent Need for a Political Horizon

• Ayalon insists Israel faces a stark choice: perpetuate endless military operations with increasing humanitarian costs, or commit to a two-state solution.
• He characterizes the international community’s role as indispensable, advocating for a world-led diplomatic approach that necessitates reciprocal recognition and state-to-state negotiation.
• Quote: "I expect the international community to lead... We should not change the goal. We should change the structure, the architecture of the process.” (Ami Ayalon, 22:13)
• He further states that only a genuine political horizon for Palestinians—even if gradual—can undercut the ideology sustaining groups like Hamas.

Timestamps:

• External leadership: regional and global roles (19:59–23:29)

6. The Psychology of Israeli Society

• State of mind: Fear and confusion dominate Israeli public opinion, generating contradictory attitudes—support for negotiating a Palestinian state coexists with suspicion of all Gazans and Palestinians.
• Quote: "I don't know. There is no way to define the Israeli but to say we are in a state of fear and confusion. In a state of fear, you need an anchor of hope." (Ami Ayalon, 26:46)
• Touching historical moments (Sadat’s 1977 visit to Jerusalem) demonstrate to Ayalon how transformative gestures and hope can reshape deeply held perceptions.

Timestamps:

• Contradictions and social confusion (26:08–28:54)

7. America’s Crucial Role and Missed Moments

• Eve Fairbanks asks if the Biden administration missed opportunities. Ayalon responds sympathetically, noting the constraints of electoral politics but emphasizes that U.S. military deterrence saved Israel from a broader regional war.
• Quote: “I think that Israelis do not understand how important was Biden to save Israel. I’m not exaggerating—to save Israel.” (Ami Ayalon, 29:19)

Timestamps:

• Biden’s impact and the limits of U.S. influence (28:54–30:59)

8. The Price—and Necessity—of Speaking Out

• Fairbanks probes why so few Israeli leaders echo Ayalon’s analysis publicly, even as many agree privately.
• Ayalon sees himself as always self-consciously outside the mainstream, but argues that even those who agree are reluctant to challenge societal taboos.
• Quote: “I have nothing to lose. I’m 80 years old... It took 50 years from the first Zionist Congress until... UN resolution to states. I know that it will not be in my lifetime, but my parents gave me a childhood with hope and this is what I hope to my grandchildren.” (Ami Ayalon, 31:46)

Timestamps:

• Why dissent is rare (31:33–32:46)

Memorable Quotes

• Ami Ayalon (03:05):
  "A terror organization will never rise a white flag. A terror organization will never surrender. And this is something that we cannot understand and we cannot accept."
• Ami Ayalon (08:26):
  "The government which is led by the most extreme wing of Jewish radicalism and Jewish racism or superiority, well, they are leading us against the will of the most Israeli citizens."
• Ami Ayalon (13:15):
  "Abraham Accord was based on Palestinians do not exist. And it was a huge mistake because this was the reason why Hamas came to believe...that Palestinians as a people will disappear from history."
• Ami Ayalon (22:13):
  "I expect the international community to lead. We should not change the goal. We should change the structure, the architecture of the process."
• Ami Ayalon (26:46):
  "There is no way to define the Israeli but to say we are in a state of fear and confusion. In a state of fear, you need an anchor of hope."
• Ami Ayalon (33:10):
  "We have the duty to dream."

Conclusion

Ami Ayalon delivers a deeply critical and reflective account of Israel’s past and present strategy, calling for courage, vision, and a return to diplomacy. He links the failures of current leadership to a broader climate of fear and insists that Israel’s true security—and regional stability—depend on a just settlement with the Palestinians, something that can only be catalyzed by determined international engagement.

Further Reading:

• Ami Ayalon’s piece: “Israel’s Fighting a War That It Cannot Win. Only a Path to a Palestinian State Can Stop Calamity in Gaza. And the World Must Lead the Way.”
  (Available at ForeignAffairs.com)

Credits:
Production team: Kanish Tharoor, Molly McEnany, Ben Metzner, Caroline Wilcox, Ashley Wood.
Theme music by Robin Hilton.
Audio by Todd Yeager.