Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview – How to Navigate the Shifting International Order
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (Editor, Foreign Affairs)
Guest: Alexander Stubb (President of Finland)
Date: February 5, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features an in-depth conversation between Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan and Finnish President Alexander Stubb on the future of the international order amid significant geopolitical upheavals. Topics include the evolution of U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, the risks of multipolarity versus multilateralism, the war in Ukraine, the role of China and the global South, and the personal dynamics of contemporary diplomacy. Stubb, drawing from his experience as the leader of a small but geopolitically savvy state and as an IR scholar, discusses pragmatic strategies to manage global uncertainty and advocates for reforms in multilateral institutions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The State of the International Order

• Rupture vs. Transition

  • Stubb distinguishes his view from Mark Carney's, describing the present as a "transition" rather than a rupture in world order. He emphasizes reform over disruption and maintains faith in international institutions (05:26, 07:11):

    “He talks about a rupture, I talk about transition. … I still have a strong belief in international institutions such as those that are portrayed in the European Union…” (05:26)

• Multipolarity vs. Multilateralism

  • Stubb warns of the risks of multipolarity (fragmented spheres of influence) as opposed to multilateralism (cooperation through international institutions):

    “Multipolarity… is about transaction, it's about deals, and quite often about spheres of interest... then there's another group... that believes in multilateralism, and that means international rules, norms, and institutions and cooperation.” (07:11)

• Reforming Multilateral Institutions

  • Advocates for reforming the UN Security Council to include countries from Latin America, Africa, and Asia, thus increasing global agency and legitimacy (07:11).

U.S. Foreign Policy Shifts

• Two Pillars: Ideology and Policy

  • Stubb assesses U.S. foreign policy as resting on two pillars: ideological (MAGA, anti-liberal order sentiment) and policy-driven (America First, with a geographical pecking order: Western Hemisphere, Indo-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa) (02:52):

    “Current American foreign policy is based on two pillars. One of them is ideological. That's the MAGA stuff. … And then the other one is the policy side of things, and that's America First.” (02:52)

• The Need for U.S. Engagement

  • Emphasizes that the international order cannot survive without active U.S. participation and that withdrawal creates dangerous vacuums (11:16):

    “We do need the United States. I think everyone understands that you don't have to have a PhD in international relations to draw that conclusion in the world in 2026.” (11:16)

Transatlantic Relationship & Finland’s Approach

• Finland’s Realism

  • Stubb emphasizes a pragmatic, calm, “Finnish” approach to crisis management: “When the shit hits the fan, … we go to the sauna, we take ice baths and we reflect on how we're going to deal with it. … I think we can always solve all kinds of problems. So you have to look at the silver line.” (24:48)
  • Warns against overreacting, instead using American demands (like increased NATO spending) as an opportunity for Europe to strengthen itself (24:48).

• Handling the Greenland Crisis

  • Describes European strategy toward U.S. threats over Greenland as “escalate to de-escalate” with economic leverage and military symbolism, ultimately achieving a de-escalated outcome but admitting damage was done (16:12):

    “There were three scenarios, good, bad, and ugly...I think we’re able to de-escalate scenario three and scenario two. This doesn’t mean they won’t come back...But these kinds of things happen among friends sometimes, I’m afraid.” (16:12)

  • European troop movement in Greenland was a miscommunication, intended as a reconnaissance operation allied with the U.S., not a provocation (19:51).

The Ukraine War: Perspectives and Outcomes

• Assessing Russia's Failure

  • Stubb lays out three points: Russia has failed strategically, militarily, and economically (27:22):

    “Putin has failed in all of his strategic aims in this war. ... Militarily...they are not winning the war...On the economic side, Russia is not doing well because of the sanctions and other things. Zero growth…interest rates 16%, inflation in double digits.” (27:22)

• Theory of Victory

  • Foresees a “compromise” peace and draws parallels to Finland’s own historical experience:

    “The only thing I would ask the Ukrainians probably to do is to…think through what will Ukraine get as a result of this peace? … it will become a member of the European Union. … it’s going to get probably the biggest reconstruction package in the history of at least modern warfare. … I think that we don’t need a theory of victory, because there is a theory of defeat, and that lies east of Ukraine in Russia.” (31:23)

China’s Role and Global Ambitions

• China as an Emerging Superpower
  • China is now “over 10 times bigger than Russia” economically and is asserting itself via patient, expansive strategies like Belt and Road (39:08).
  • Stubb describes China’s relationship with Russia as increasingly one-sided (“vassal type”) and expects China to tire of Russia’s failures (37:20).
  • Differences in governance: China is “not as centralized as we believe,” and values the collective over the individual (39:08).

The Global South as a Decisive Force

• Triangular Contest

  • Sees the future world order as shaped by the interplay between the West (U.S.-led), East (China and allies), and the South (rising middle powers); the Global South will be decisive in choosing between multipolarity and multilateralism (45:25):

    “The ones who are going to decide the direction in which we go is going to be the global South…a rules-based world order would be better.” (45:25)

• Values-Based Realism and Dignified Foreign Policy

  • Stubb calls for Western humility and cooperation with countries that “don’t look like you, don’t smell like you, don’t think like you, and don’t share your basic values” (45:25).

Diplomacy in the Modern Era

• Personal Diplomacy in a Digital Age
  • Stubb credits curiosity, direct engagement, and honest communication for his effective relationship with President Trump (50:09).
  • Describes diplomacy now as faster-paced and reliant on personal texting and direct communication — a new web of information-sharing that can build trust and flexibility, though it requires caution (54:28):

    “But the fact that I’m able to send a text message directly to President Trump or to his staff…is, of course, an asset… For me, coming from a small country, information is power. So if I’m able to relay information…then I make myself useful.” (54:28)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. Foreign Policy’s Shift (03:50):

  "Deal with the world as it is, don't deal with it as you would expect or want it to be." – Stubb

• On the Dangers of Multipolarity (07:11):

  "The international world order has never been perfect...but at least there has been engagement. So I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bathwater." – Stubb

• On Finland’s Strategic Temperament (24:48):

  “When the shit hits the fan… we go to the sauna, we take ice baths and we reflect…” – Stubb

• On Engaging with President Trump (50:09):

  “President Trump is actually quite curious. He asks a lot of questions and he engages. He’s very different one to one…” – Stubb

• On What Failure and Success Look Like (56:27):

  “Failure looks like multipolarity on steroids, where we see foreign policy as a zero sum game of deals, transactions and spheres of interest... The best case scenario is multilateralism and some kind of reformed United Nations...” – Stubb

• On Value of Golf in Diplomacy (53:15):

  “Trump gave me the clubs and they're really, really nice. So I really enjoy the game.” – Stubb

Important Timestamps

• [02:52] – Stubb outlines pillars of current U.S. foreign policy: MAGA (ideological) and America First (policy).
• [05:26] – Discusses own “transition” framework vs. Mark Carney’s “rupture”; emphasizes EU's resilience.
• [07:11] – Differentiates multipolarity from multilateralism, stressing need for reform of global institutions.
• [11:16] – Asserts necessity of active U.S. role in global order.
• [16:12] – Dissects European response to Greenland crisis; “escalate to de-escalate.”
• [24:48] – Finland’s cool approach to crises and lessons for Europe.
• [27:22] – Analytical breakdown: Russia’s failures in Ukraine.
• [31:23] – Theory of victory for Ukraine and parallels to Finland’s history.
• [39:08] – Big-picture view on China’s rise and global ambitions.
• [45:25] – The decisive role of the Global South in shaping the international order.
• [54:28] – Impact of direct leader-to-leader texting on global diplomacy.
• [56:27] – Vision of failure (“multipolarity on steroids”) vs. success (reformed multilateralism).

Conclusion

President Alexander Stubb’s thoughtful, pragmatic, and occasionally humorous perspective offers a calming yet realistic vision for how small and middle powers can shape and survive in a shifting global order. The episode highlights how Finland and Europe view current U.S. policy, the importance of reform over abandonment of existing institutions, and the critical role of both the global South and personal diplomacy in the future of international relations.