Podcast Summary: "How Will the World Navigate Trump’s Return?"

The Foreign Affairs Interview
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan
Guests: Malcolm Turnbull (Former Prime Minister of Australia), Bilahari Kausikan (Former Singaporean Diplomat)
Date: January 16, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode explores global expectations and potential strategies for navigating U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump's second presidency. Host Daniel Kurtz-Phelan speaks with Malcolm Turnbull, who shares hard-earned lessons from his time dealing directly with Trump as Australia's Prime Minister, and Bilahari Kausikan, who analyzes how Asia perceives and adapts to America First policies. The episode offers unfiltered assessments of Trump’s approach, its impact on allies, and the recalibration underway worldwide as the U.S. signals another period of disruption and transactionalism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Lessons from Engaging Trump: Malcolm Turnbull's Perspective

• (01:30–27:31)

Two Critical Misunderstandings

• Campaign vs. Governance: Global leaders mistakenly believed Trump would moderate after election. “The first was that he would be different in office than he was on the campaign trail… Well, of course it was. And in some respects it got even wilder.” — Malcolm Turnbull (01:35)
• Flattery vs. Respect: Another misconception was that fawning over Trump would secure favorable outcomes. “The only people he respects are people that stand up to him. You know, he is a classic sort of bullying, narcissistic personality.” (01:55)

A Personal Example: The Heated Refugee Deal Call

• Turnbull describes a contentious early call after Trump’s inauguration concerning a refugee resettlement agreement, where Trump erupted but ultimately agreed to honor the deal—demonstrating the value of holding firm.
  • “He was furious… He said it was the worst call he’d had all day. It was worse than talking to Putin. But the important thing was… by having this row and standing up to him, I won his respect. And we got on very well after that.” (05:38, 06:26)
  • “If you want to have a productive relationship with Trump, you need to win his respect. And you’re not going to win his respect by just being another sycophant… He’s surrounded by them.” (07:32)

The "Japan Model" Reconsidered

• Turnbull challenges the notion that Abe’s approach of flattery and gift-giving was successful, noting that Japan still suffered under Trump’s protectionist moves.
  • “Trump treated [Abe] pretty badly, disrespectfully, often... So, with great respect, I don’t think there’s any evidence that flattery… [is effective].” (08:43, 10:28)

Advice for Current Leaders

• Stand your ground, respond in kind, avoid passivity: “This is a guy who just breaks all norms of behavior. You’ve got to give back as good as you get.” — On Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum (11:46)
• Dangers of Overlooking Norms: Threats against Greenland, Panama, and Canada damage U.S. credibility and the rule-of-law argument against authoritarian powers. (12:26–15:36)

Trump’s Ideology – Not Just Rhetorical

• “We now know that he is not a conservative. This disruption, this view of the world is not a bug. It’s a feature of the MAGA approach…” (16:10)
• Cites the Melian Dialogue for Trump’s worldview: “The strong do as they will and the weak suffer as they must. Well, can you even argue that that is not Donald Trump’s view of the world?” (17:08)

China’s Likely Response

• China is better prepared, pragmatic, and deals transactionally; China’s global industrial position is much stronger than in Trump’s first term. (18:30–20:52)

Impact on U.S. Alliances and the Global Order

• Allies must hedge more, but instability in their domestic governments makes standing firm more difficult.
  • “Trump is de facto leading a global populist movement… a leader has to… protect themselves against their political rivals on the populist right… using any difference they have with Trump as a stick to beat them with at home.” (24:41)
• Foresees increased unpredictability, erosion of U.S. credibility, and risk of new spheres of influence. (25:59, 27:08)

2. The Asian View: Bilahari Kausikan’s Perspective

• (29:12–51:58)

Transactionalism Is Not New in Asia

• Asia is less perturbed by Trump’s rhetorical style or value divergence. “We have always dealt with the United States on the basis of common interests, not common values. And that’s perhaps a more stable and a calmer way.” (30:41)

Post-Cold War American Foreign Policy

• Trump embodies the U.S.’s reversion to inward focus after the Cold War’s exceptional period of international engagement.
  • “I see Mr. Trump, not as an aberration, but perhaps as a return to the norm... We’re now back to the norm and we better get used to it, all of us.” (32:25)

The US-China Relationship: Competition is Now the Default

• “From 1972 to…2012, the overall emphasis...was on engagement.... That is now flipped. It is on competition. And I think this is quite natural.” (33:19)
• Urges the U.S. not to demonize China, arguing no Asian countries, even staunch allies, would join a campaign cast in such terms. (34:58)

China's Regional Ambitions Are Limited by Reality

• “China has that ambition, that’s for sure...But it has already failed. It cannot succeed.” — On China’s vision of regional hegemony. (36:31)
• National identities throughout Asia—Japan, Korea, Vietnam, India—are defined in part by non-submission to China.

How Asia Navigates U.S. Transactionalism

• U.S. is indispensable for balance of power, but Asian states engage pragmatically, keeping their interests foremost. “Asia has always been… transactional in its dealing with America. We need America… and we don’t expect you to do this as a favor to us.” (38:34)

Risks in Trump’s Second Term

• Escalating US-China Competition: The worst scenarios are a US-China condominium (unlikely but removes agency from smaller states) or direct war (deterrence will likely hold, but Taiwan is the main flash point). (40:26–42:16)
• Trade and Global Economy: Major risks are further disruption from tariffs and a trade war. “The big drivers of the world economy, China is not in good shape. Europe is not in good shape. The only big economy that is in good shape is the US actually.” (44:11)
  • Malaysia and Thailand vulnerable to middle-income trap, with broader regional instability a possibility. (43:15)

The Ukraine War: Western Myopia and Asian Reactions

• The war in Ukraine teaches China caution and desire for sanction-proofing, not strategic opportunity. (46:24)
  • “The first lesson is the West is not as effete as I thought. A corollary… is that Russia is not as great as I thought either.” (46:32)
• Sees Western focus on Ukraine as a Euro-centric view; wars have been ongoing in the Global South without similar attention. (48:20)

The Middle East: Enduring Instability and U.S. Centrality

• Despite local criticism (especially from Malaysia, less so Indonesia), U.S. remains the only consequential external actor in the region. (49:28)
• Southeast Asian criticism often plays to domestic audiences, but rarely shifts fundamental strategic alignment. (50:19)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Dealing With Trump:
  • “If you want to have a productive relationship with Trump, you need to win his respect, and you’re not going to win his respect by just being another sycophant.” — Malcolm Turnbull (00:05)
  • “He, you know, he says the quiet bits out loud. I mean, he’s basically saying that might is right.” — Malcolm Turnbull (27:08)
• On America's Shift:
  • “Mr. Trump is probably the first truly post-Cold War American president.” — Bilahari Kausikan (30:56)
  • “We have always dealt with the United States on the basis of common interests, not common values.” — Bilahari Kausikan (30:41)
• On Asian Pragmatism:
  • “Asia has always been shall we say transactional in its dealing with America. We need America. America is a vital part of any balance of power in Asia...and we don’t expect you to do this as a favor to us.” — Bilahari Kausikan (38:34)
• On Ukraine:
  • “What is so unique about the Ukraine war except that it’s happening in Europe? Is it less horrific than the war in Sudan or the war in Congo or the wars in the Middle East? I don’t think so.” — Bilahari Kausikan (48:20)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Turnbull: Early Lessons & Refugee Deal with Trump
  • 01:30–07:32
• On Abe, Flattery, and Respect
  • 08:21–10:28
• Response to Trump's Greenland, Panama Threats
  • 11:59–15:36
• China's Posture and Potential Shifts in Asia
  • 18:07–21:18
• Global Populism and Populist Leverage
  • 24:41–25:46
• Greatest Global Risks of Trump 2.0
  • 25:59–27:08
• Kausikan: US-Asia Relations and the End of an Era
  • 29:23–32:54
• Asian Countries’ Approach to Washington's Shift
  • 33:19–34:58
• Limits on China’s Regional Supremacy
  • 36:11–37:53
• Navigating US Transactionalism in Asia
  • 38:34–39:59
• US-China Escalation Scenarios & Taiwan
  • 40:26–42:16
• Risks in Trade and Regional Economics
  • 42:51–45:21
• Ukraine: Lessons for China; Western Myopia
  • 46:24–48:20
• Middle East Policy and Asian Domestic Calculations
  • 49:28–51:40

Conclusion

This episode provides a candid, strategic, and at times sobering examination of how world leaders—especially in US-allied, Asian, and middle-power countries—are recalibrating their foreign policy as Trump returns to the White House. The guests agree that the world cannot afford illusions about the current American approach; pragmatic, interest-based, and self-assured engagement remains essential. Trump's style and worldview, focused on transaction and strength, will test the mettle and adaptability of both friends and rivals, and could redefine international norms for years to come.