The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode: Is the World Ready for the Population Bust?
Date: January 2, 2025
Host: Kanishk Tharoor (on behalf of Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan)
Guest: Nicholas Eberstadt, Political Economist

Episode Overview

This episode explores the seismic global shift from centuries of population growth to an impending era of depopulation, led by widespread declines in fertility rates. Political economist Nicholas Eberstadt, author of the Foreign Affairs essay “The Age of Surviving a World Gone Grey,” discusses the causes, implications, and potential responses to global demographic decline. The conversation covers why fertility is collapsing, why government policies have limited impact, and what shrinking, aging populations mean for societies, economies, and geopolitics.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Surprising Pace and Scope of Global Fertility Decline

[02:13–05:06]

• Fertility declines are both widespread and unexpectedly rapid:

  • Even former high-fertility regions (Mexico, Thailand, India, Mauritius) are now at or below replacement levels.
  • “In Mexico City, the current birth trends imply less than one baby per woman per lifetime, and that Mexico last year had a lower birth rate than the United States of America.” (Eberstadt, 02:32)
  • “It’s not possible that the world has already fallen on a planetary scale below the level of childbearing necessary for long term population stability … if this hasn’t happened already, it may happen much sooner than people expected.” (Eberstadt, 03:56)

• Sub-Saharan Africa is the exception, but change is underway:

  • Fertility remains high, but levels are dropping and an eventual convergence with global trends seems likely.

2. Historical Context: The 20th Century Population Explosion

[06:15–08:48]

• The 20th century’s population surge was historically anomalous, driven by massive increases in life expectancy and decreases in mortality—not increased childbearing.
  • “What was missed by many during the population explosion panic was that this surge in human numbers was generated entirely by improvements in health, by pervasive plummets in mortality…” (Eberstadt, 07:26)
• Gains in per capita income, literacy, and nutrition accompanied demographic expansion.

3. The Primacy of Personal Choice in Fertility Rates

[08:48–12:23; 13:56–15:03]

• Individual volition is key:

  • “Volition is why even in an increasingly healthy and prosperous world … the extinction of every family line could be only one generation away.” (Tharoor, 08:56, quoting Eberstadt’s essay)
  • Declines are not explained by economic hardship alone—examples like Myanmar show even the poorest, non-catastrophic societies can have low fertility.
  • Factors like religiosity and education correlate with fertility, but exceptions abound, emphasizing choice over external circumstance.
    • “Israel… well above replacement in [an] affluent, highly educated society.” (Eberstadt, 13:37)

• Empowering choice, not controlling it:

  • “I don’t think that there are outsiders or experts who know better than the parents in question how many children parents should be having. The alternative seems rather terrifying.” (Eberstadt, 14:34)

4. Limits of Pro-Natalist Policies

[15:03–17:06]

• Policy is largely ineffective at changing fertility rates:
  • “We can’t be bribed into having a different level of childbearing than we’d want. The record of pronatal policies around the world… is it’s very expensive to get really marginal or tiny fractional changes in long-term childbearing.” (Eberstadt, 15:53)
• The better approach is to adapt:
  • “There’s a lot that human beings and their governments… can do to adjust to shrinking and aging populations just the way we adjusted to a growing world when we had a population explosion.” (Eberstadt, 16:47)

5. The Consequences of Depopulation: Not Necessarily Catastrophe

[17:06–18:55]

• Depopulation is a “difficult new context,” not apocalypse:
  • “Depopulation is not a grave sentence. Rather, it is a difficult new context, one in which countries can still find ways to thrive.” (Tharoor, 17:24, quoting Eberstadt)
• Human adaptability and the institutional advances of the last century provide a foundation for adjusting to demographic challenges.

6. The Core Challenge: Aging Societies

[18:55–22:22]

• The inversion of the population pyramid threatens social programs:

  • The old “pay-as-you-go” model for pensions and health care is unsustainable when retirees outnumber workers.
    • “As soon as that population pyramid tilts, you’re in a doom loop. You just can’t do it.” (Eberstadt, 19:55)
  • Societies should plan for new systems ensuring intergenerational fairness and sustainability.

• Success depends on social trust and governmental foresight:

  • Societies that navigate depopulation best will be those that can coordinate complex, timely policy shifts.

7. Policies for the New Age: Growth, Health, and Education

[22:22–23:40]

• Speeding up economic growth and improving population quality are crucial:
  • “Policies that encourage countries to get rich as fast as they can sustainably can’t hurt… efforts to improve health, …skills, …knowledge production.” (Eberstadt, 22:36)
• Personal responsibility will rise in importance:
  • People will need to save more and work longer; good health habits more critical than ever.
    • “I expect we’re going to see a world in which longer living peoples also are longer working peoples.” (Eberstadt, 23:31)

8. Migration and Technological Adaptation

[23:46–26:24]

• Migration as an economic and demographic buffer:

  • “Migration is going to be a great benefit for those states and countries that can… attract talent from abroad and… absorb and assimilate that talent into loyal and productive newcomers.” (Eberstadt, 24:14)
  • Not every country is equipped to absorb migrants as the US, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have.

• Automation and AI as productivity multipliers:

  • “Robotics… artificial intelligence… all sorts of technological innovations offer a sort of productivity multiplier for aging shrinking societies.” (Eberstadt, 25:18)
  • If education keeps pace, automation is less likely to cause harmful displacement.

9. The U.S. Outlook Versus Geopolitical Rivals

[26:24–29:37]

• U.S. demographic “exceptionalism” is now diminished but persists:

  • US fertility has dropped below replacement level, but remains high for a wealthy country; ongoing immigration bolsters numbers and talent pool.
    • “As an arithmetic proposition [the US is] on a trajectory to continue to increase in total headcount… its population composition to go grey, but more modestly.” (Eberstadt, 27:27)
  • Numerous internal headwinds (health inequalities, education, polarization) threaten these advantages.
    • “In the unforgiving world of power politics… you compare yourself to whatever else is in the field.” (Eberstadt, 28:50)

• China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea face greater demographic headwinds:

  • “China is aging very, very, very rapidly. Russia has a long cough that it can’t shake… Iran is a below replacement society which is going to begin shrinking before people appreciate this.” (Eberstadt, 29:39)
  • Demography is not destiny: Even depopulating states may be disruptive actors in global politics.

10. The Politics of Demography

[31:20–33:36]

• Demographic anxieties play a role similar to climate change—an existential framing in political rhetoric.
• Eberstadt criticizes tribalistic and alarmist population discourse:
  • “There’s often a temptation when people talk about population to frame it… in tribalistic terms.” (Eberstadt, 31:55)
• Attitudinal trends may matter more than numbers:
  • “What concerns me the most in the United States about low fertility is not the birth numbers per se, but the array of attitudes that are often associated with these: demoralized, worried about the future, the anxiety, the lack of confidence, the lack of patriotism.” (Eberstadt, 33:12)
  • The U.S. may be less resilient than in the past due to eroding confidence and social cohesion.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On policy limitations:
  • “We can’t be bribed into having a different level of childbearing than we’d want.” (Eberstadt, 15:54)
• On adaptability:
  • “Human beings are very good at coping. We’re very good at adapting.” (Eberstadt, 18:05)
• On pensions and social contracts in aging societies:
  • “When you live in a world where there are five or six current earners for every retiree, that’s great… As soon as that population pyramid tilts, you’re in a doom loop.” (Eberstadt, 19:49)
• On demography and attitudes:
  • “What concerns me the most in the United States about low fertility is not the birth numbers per se, but the array of attitudes… demoralized, worried about the future… anxiety, the lack of confidence…” (Eberstadt, 33:12)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Global Fertility Decline: 02:13–05:06
• 20th Century Population Explosion: 06:15–08:48
• Primacy of Volition in Fertility: 08:48–12:23
• Policy Inefficacy: 15:03–17:06
• The Challenges of Aging Societies: 18:55–22:22
• Migration and Assimilation: 23:46–24:59
• Automation and Education: 25:16–26:24
• U.S. Demographic Position: 26:56–29:37
• Demography and Politics: 31:20–33:36

Conclusion

This episode provides a sober, nuanced, and at times optimistic examination of the demographic revolution facing the planet. Eberstadt stresses that while seismic, this transition is not inherently catastrophic: with foresight, adaptability, and institutional reform, societies can thrive even as populations shrink and age. The conversation rebuts alarmism, celebrates human agency and adaptability, and foregrounds the importance of social trust and effective governance in a changing demographic era.