The Fear and Weakness at the Heart of Trump’s Strategy

The Foreign Affairs Interview — December 11, 2025
Host: Justin Vogt (Foreign Affairs)
Guest: Corey Shockey, Senior Fellow and Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI

Overview

This episode examines the Trump administration’s recently released National Security Strategy (NSS), which sharply departs in tone and substance from both previous strategies – including Trump’s own first-term NSS – and historical U.S. policy traditions. Corey Shockey, prominent foreign policy expert and critic of Trump, dissects the document’s approach and implications, arguing it rests on faulty assumptions that could imperil U.S. strategic interests and its relationships with vital allies. The conversation explores both the ideological drivers behind the document and the practical fallout, including a rising civil-military crisis at home.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature and Weaknesses of Trump’s NSS (00:33–09:04)

• Core Premise:
  Trump’s strategy is “basically a declaration of war against our closest friends on the assumption that we are in closer alignment with our actual adversaries…the countries China, Russia, North Korea and Iran…It’s lunacy.”
  — Corey Shockey (00:05)

• Editing and Approach:
  NSS documents are typically “staid exercises in lofty rhetoric.” The current document is different: it rebukes traditional allies, spotlights Western Hemisphere security but largely ignores rivals like China and Russia (00:33).

• Who Wrote It:
  No one is rushing to take credit; suggests a lack of pride in authorship (06:24).
  Shockey suspects the strategy came from State Department policy planning staff rather than the National Security Council, reflecting both internal confusion and lack of transparency.

• “Strategy” Definition Flaw:
  Trump’s NSS defines a strategy as connecting ends and means, but “that’s not right. Where a strategy begins is with an accurate assessment of the environment…They skip a crucial step.”
  — Corey Shockey (07:43)

Notable Quote

“Most of them are just wish lists. But what makes that so richly ironic with this Trump administration NSS is that they rightly identify the weaknesses of prior national security strategies, and then they replicate those weaknesses.”
— Corey Shockey (04:43)

2. The Flawed Assumptions & International Fallout (09:04–14:20)

• Ends Envisioned:
  The strategy seeks to unshackle the U.S. from multilateral concerns, rejecting alliances and institutions that have long undergirded American power—a key historical error.

• Voluntary Assistance:
  “No other dominant power in history has had as much voluntary assistance in achieving its aims as the United States has had. And that’s a function of how we have exercised our power…” (09:04)

• Faulty Assumptions:
  The administration assumes:

  1. Others will not or cannot form alternatives to U.S. power
  2. U.S. can remain predominant without its allies

• Evidence of Failure:

  • Allies are hedging:
    • Japan and South Korea consider trade with China
    • Europe develops independent defense industry
    • Key intelligence partners restrict sharing with the U.S. due to trust issues

Notable Quote

“The untrustworthiness of the United States is making us blinder, and it’s making us less capable... The Trump administration strategy is basically a declaration of war against our closest friends... It’s lunacy.”
— Corey Shockey (11:51–13:25)

3. Culture War and Defining Enemies (14:20–17:47)

• Cultural Targeting:
  The NSS omits Russia and China as threats, but highlights Europe and close allies negatively, reframing the threat as coming from U.S. partners.

• Culture War, Not Strategy:
  “The only war that the Trump administration wants to fight is a culture war.” (14:20)

• Targeting Allies:
  “Reading this strategy, you would think that the United States was under siege from Europe… It considers the Netherlands or France as a major threat... That’s crazy. It’s so self defeating.” (15:27)

• Ends, Means, and Fantasy:
  Many goals listed (“glitter, unicorns, magic ending”) with no plan for achievement—history repeats wish lists with no strategy (17:47).

4. Why Does Trump’s Approach Appeal Domestically? (17:50–23:59)

• Failure of Political Leadership:
  American presidents haven’t explained or justified big foreign policy commitments, so “people haven’t come along on.”
  “What Trump is doing is lighting that international order on fire…It’s going to take a generation to repair.”
  — Corey Shockey (18:43)

• Not Merely Messaging:
  The absence of explanation is both political and ethical failure; leaders have shirked responsibility to build consensus on foreign policy (21:21).

• Trading Order Misunderstood:
  “I don’t think we have a global failure of the trading order. I think what we have is we permitted China into the global trading order without requiring it to follow the rules. That’s what collapses the global trading order.” (22:06)

5. When Was U.S. Foreign Policy “Good”? (22:41–24:23)

• Shockey’s View:
  U.S. foreign policy mostly functioned well from 1945 onward, across multiple administrations. The system’s success let Americans take it for granted—“like the operating system on our computers” (24:23).

6. The Civil-Military Crisis & Use of Force (25:58–32:59)

• Strains under Trump Administration:

  • Purges of senior military officers
  • Using military for law enforcement in U.S. cities
  • Strikes in the Caribbean targeting alleged drug trafficking boats without clear authorization

• Core Problem:
  “We are telescoping down to judging the decision making of the military. And there are three higher levels of accountability that we ought to be demanding… Has Congress…approved? Is there a formal process as the Constitution requires?”
  — Corey Shockey (27:51)

• Caution:
  The real destabilizing behavior is from civilian leadership, not the military. Politicians pulling the military into partisan conflicts undermines military professionalism and risks public confidence (29:26–30:16).

Notable Quote

“The military cannot save us from the politicians we elect. Only the politicians we elect can do that.”
— Corey Shockey (35:09)

7. The MacArthur Precedent & Civilian Control (30:16–40:30)

• Recap of MacArthur Case:
  Only modern instance of insubordination, fired for violating civilian policy and process.

• Congressional Oversight:
  Established channels exist: officers can go to Congress if they object to the President’s policies.
  Critique of Samuel Huntington’s view that this option weakens professionalism—Shockey calls it fundamentally anti-democratic (36:21).

• Historical Precedent:
  Thomas Jefferson was the first president to purge military leadership based on politics (38:23).

• Military Professionalism:
  Civ-mil system works when civilian leadership makes strategy and resourcing decisions; military’s role is to execute.

8. The Resilience and Risks for U.S. Civil-Military Relations (40:30–42:43)

• Current Strengths:
  “Civil military relations are actually holding up amazingly well.” Military professionalism has so far resisted extraordinary politicization, reminiscent only of 1866–67.

• Warning:
  If Trump’s administration starts appointing overtly political officers to top roles, norms could erode quickly: “It could change very fast.” (42:04–42:43)

Notable Quotes

• On the essence of strategy:
  “Where a strategy begins is with an accurate assessment of the environment.”
  — Corey Shockey (07:43)

• On American leadership:
  “What is unique about the moment of American dominance is, no other dominant power in history has had as much voluntary assistance in achieving its aims as the U.S. has had... That’s a function of how we have exercised our power.”
  — Corey Shockey (09:04)

• On civil-military boundaries:
  “The military cannot save us from the politicians we elect. Only the politicians we elect can do that.”
  — Corey Shockey (35:09)

• On present challenges:
  “We are telescoping down to judging the decision making of the military…and I think the arrow should be pointing the other direction because…the civilians, not the behavior of the military.”
  — Corey Shockey (27:51)

Key Timestamps

• Trump NSS as a departure and overview: 00:05–02:27
• Why the NSS fails as a strategy: 04:09–07:54
• Allies hedging and trust issues: 11:51–14:20
• Turning on allies, culture war critique: 14:20–17:47
• Domestic appeal and messaging failures: 17:47–23:59
• Civil-military strain and precedent: 25:58–42:43

Memorable Moments

• Shockey’s condemnation: Trump strategy “is basically a declaration of war against our closest friends…it’s lunacy.” (00:05, 13:25)
• Explanation of how and why the MacArthur firing set norms for U.S. civilian control (30:37–32:59).
• Shockey’s warning: If political appointments increase in uniformed leadership, military culture could erode rapidly.

Summary Note:
This episode delivers a sharp, evidence-based critique of the Trump administration’s approach to national security and civil-military affairs, blending concerns for U.S. global standing with warnings about institutional resilience at home. Shockey stresses that America’s power and security stem not from brute force or unilateralism, but from alliances, legitimacy, and disciplined political leadership—values she finds missing in the current strategy. Despite intense pressure, she expresses cautious optimism in the military’s professionalism, but cautions that enduring damage is possible if present trends continue.