The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode: The Missing Israeli Endgame

Date: November 20, 2023

Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan

Guest: Ami Ayalon, former head of Israel’s Navy and the Shin Bet

Episode Overview

In this episode, Foreign Affairs editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan speaks with Ami Ayalon, ex-admiral of Israel’s navy and former chief of the Shin Bet, about Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza—and, crucially, the lack of a clearly articulated political “endgame” for what should follow. The discussion covers Israel’s current theory (or lack) of victory, ongoing government divisions, the impact of civilian casualties, policy failures leading up to October 7th, Binyamin Netanyahu’s motives and leadership, the risks of regional escalation, and Ayalon’s vision for a future political horizon.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Missing Endgame and the Dangers of Undefined Political Goals

• No Clear Theory of Victory
  • Ayalon argues that it is irresponsible to send troops to war without a defined political goal or vision for “the day after” (00:05; 01:38; 04:20).
  • “The idea of decisive military victory in the battlefield has no meaning... So we have to do everything in order to try as soon as possible, to discuss the day after. The day after is a political good.” — Ami Ayalon (01:38)
  • The Israeli cabinet has formally decided not to discuss or articulate a postwar political vision, reflecting a lack of consensus that, if addressed, could topple the governing coalition (04:33).

2. Internal Divisions and Political Stalemate

• Government and Cabinet Split
  • The lack of debate isn’t due to an absence of ideas, but because “the moment they will start this debate, the coalition will fall apart.” (04:33)
  • Politically moderate ministers clash with far-right members, inhibiting any consensus about occupation, governance, or next steps for Gaza.

3. Civilian Casualties and Strategic Concerns

• Casualty Dilemma
  • Over 11,000 Palestinian deaths, including thousands of children, have heightened international criticism.
  • Ayalon maintains that while civilian deaths are tragic, he is unsure the IDF could accomplish its military goals via other means, given Hamas’ strategy of using civilians as human shields (06:23).
  • “Unfortunately, they [Hamas] are winning this war. … [W]e are doing all what we can… to avoid civilian casualties. But you have to understand the hospitals, armed military installations, and Gaza is probably the most populated, you know, city or area on the world. There is no other way to defeat the military wing…” — Ami Ayalon (06:23–09:55)

4. Long-Standing Policy Failures and Netanyahu’s Approach

• Policy of “Managing the Conflict” Collapses

  • The October 7 Hamas attack revealed the bankruptcy of “managing the conflict” and strategies that kept Palestinian factions divided (10:08).
  • Netanyahu’s policy empowered Hamas to divide Palestinians, weaken the Palestinian Authority, and maintain the status quo, which backfired (10:08–13:34).
  • “On the 7th of October... what collapsed is first of all the theory of dividing and trying to manage their conflict.” — Ami Ayalon (13:34)

• Personal Motivation and Erosion of Democracy

  • Ayalon asserts Netanyahu’s primary policy objective is self-preservation amid his ongoing corruption trial (13:51–16:34).
  • “[T]he cornerstone of his policy is to stay out of prison. And I’m not joking.” — Ami Ayalon (13:51)
  • Continuous conflict threatens Israeli democracy, as ongoing war chips away at civil liberties and the notion of a Jewish democracy (13:51).

5. Regional Escalation: Hezbollah and Beyond

• Hezbollah Threat and Netanyahu’s Caution
  • While the north (Hezbollah) remains a looming concern, Ayalon doubts Netanyahu is seeking war there, characterizing him as risk-averse (18:15–21:38).
  • Advocates for talks with Lebanon on borders, not war— noting that regional diplomacy is essential for future security.

6. Vision for the “Day After”: A Political Horizon

• Two-State Solution as the Only Viable Endgame

  • Only a two-state framework can offer long-term security for Israel and self-determination for Palestinians (22:16).
  • The Oslo process, while flawed, set the contours. Progress will require external leadership, especially from the United States (22:16–27:29).
  • “The only viable political horizon is the horizon of two states for two people.” — Ami Ayalon (22:16)
  • The US, especially Biden, must lead in assembling a regional and international coalition to support a political solution, with Arab participation in Gaza’s reconstruction.

• Geopolitical Stakes and the China Factor

  • The conflict is now regional and global. If the US doesn’t lead a process toward regional stability, China will fill the vacuum (28:06).
  • “If you will not create here this coalition… China in few years will control this region. If you want to lead the west, this is what you have to do.” — Ami Ayalon (28:06)

7. Public Sentiment and What’s Needed for Change

• Israeli Society’s Shaken Security Conceptions
  • Israelis have lost faith in technology, borders, and military strength after October 7; what’s missing is trusted political leadership and a vision of hope (30:03).
  • “All of it collapsed. All of it collapsed. So Israelis are afraid. So what we need is someone to trust that will lead us and will show us a better reality.” — Ami Ayalon (30:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On War Without Political Vision:
  “It is irresponsible for us to send our military, our people, to the battlefield without defining a political goal, which is a description of the day later.” — Ami Ayalon (00:05)
• On Civilian Casualties:
  “I don’t think that we understood until the 7th of October... Hamas is using its people, civilians... as a human shield. … Unfortunately, they are winning this war.” — Ami Ayalon (06:23)
• On Netanyahu’s Motives:
  “If you ask me what is the cornerstone of his policy is to stay out of prison. And I’m not joking.” — Ami Ayalon (13:51)
• On Enduring Conflict and Democracy:
  “Democracy cannot survive in ongoing war.” — Ami Ayalon (16:51)
• On America’s Role:
  “America is the only superpower who can lead this process. … He [Biden] has all the leverage to come to us and to tell us, look, I will support you... but your interest is to see Israel safe, Jewish and democratic. And you can achieve it only in a reality of two states.” — Ami Ayalon (22:16)
• On Israel’s Shaken Confidence:
  “Until now, you know, we felt relatively safe, but our security was based on fences, walls, technology and military power. All of it collapsed. All of it collapsed. So Israelis are afraid.” — Ami Ayalon (30:03)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Defining the Problem: No Clear Endgame — 01:38–04:20
• Internal Government Disagreement — 04:20–05:28
• Civilian Casualty Dilemma — 06:23–09:55
• Prior Policy Failures and Empowering Hamas — 10:08–13:34
• Netanyahu’s Personal Interests & Democratic Erosion — 13:51–16:34
• Risks of Escalation with Hezbollah — 17:50–21:38
• A Vision for the Day After: Two-State Solution — 22:16–27:29
• Geopolitics and U.S. Responsibility — 28:06–29:24
• What Israelis Need Now — 30:03–31:02

Tone and Language

Ami Ayalon speaks with sober clarity, drawing from deep security and political experience, and offers a candid, sometimes critical, and at times personal assessment of Israeli leadership, policy dead-ends, and the broader regional and global stakes. Kurtz-Phelan’s questions are probing but respectful, inviting Ayalon to elaborate and ground his insights in concrete recent events.

Conclusion

This episode provides a resolute critique of Israel’s current approach to the Gaza conflict, stressing the existential risks of military action without political vision, as well as the urgency for renewed international (especially U.S.) engagement on a viable two-state solution. For Israeli society, security and democracy are now in the balance, their futures resting on leadership capable of inspiring trust and hope beyond the impasse.