Podcast Summary: The Return of Political Violence

The Foreign Affairs Interview
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (Editor, Foreign Affairs Magazine)
Guest: Robert Pape (Political Scientist, University of Chicago)
Date: November 7, 2024

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the resurgence of political violence in the United States and abroad, focusing on what Robert Pape calls "an era of violent populism." Drawing on recent essays for Foreign Affairs and a deep well of research, Pape and Kurtz-Phelan explore how violence is being used to influence political outcomes, analyze the underlying social and demographic dynamics, and apply these lessons to current international crises, notably in Gaza and Ukraine.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Era of Violent Populism in the United States

• Definition and Historical Context

  • Violent populism is defined as the use of force to support a political candidate, movement, or ideology.
  • The United States is experiencing levels of political violence unseen since the 1960s and 70s, with incidents occurring on both the left and right.

    "That's the name I give to this period. And you're seeing violence mostly on the right, but also violence on the left... you would have to go back to the 1960s and 70s before you find another high period of what I would call our era of violent populism." (B, 02:24)

• Support for Political Violence

  • The University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, led by Pape, has run 14 gold-standard national surveys since June 2021, finding persistently high support for political violence.
  • This support doesn't mean these individuals will act violently—but it provides social license for those already inclined toward violence.

    "When there's support for political violence among the public, this can nudge volatile actors... to take the actual violent action in the belief that it is popular." (B, 02:24)

• Striking Data

  • 15% of Americans agree that the use of force is justified to ensure government officials "do the right thing" (A, 07:26).
    • Breakdown: 12% Democrats, 15% independents, 19% Republicans.
  • Domestic terrorism incidents increased 357% from 2013 to 2021.

• Analogy: Wildfires

  • Social media acts as a channel for normalizing violence, creating "dry, combustible material" that, with the right trigger, can ignite large-scale events.

    "Political violence is like studying wildfires... we can scientifically measure the size of the combustible material... but what we can't do... is predict the timing of a lightning strike or a cigar butt being thrown." (B, 05:29)

2. The Demographic and Social Roots of Violence

• America’s Demographic Transition

  • The US is undergoing a historic shift from a white-majority democracy to a multiracial one.

    "We are now going through the heart of the transition from a white majority democracy to a white minority multiracial democracy... starting about 10 years ago... and that corresponds to the rise of Donald Trump..." (B, 08:22)

• Security Dilemma Among Groups

  • Both "sides" feel existential insecurity, fearing political subordination or loss of equality, fueling hardening attitudes and, at the extremes, openness to political violence.

• International Perspective

  • The US is a "leading indicator," but these dynamics are playing out, or will, in other Western societies.

3. Crisis of Legitimacy and Its Consequences

• No Safe Harbor After Elections

  • Regardless of the outcome, the US faces a crisis of legitimacy around its government, likely fueling further instability.

    "Whoever wins, we are going to see likely a deep crisis of legitimacy in terms of whether we believe the new government is deserving of our allegiance." (B, 15:19)

• Loss of Faith in Institutions

  • Survey data shows eroding faith in democratic norms and institutions across partisan lines, compounding the risk.

• Potential for Political Violence

  • The immediate post-election period is described as a "tinderbox"; though Pape remains hopeful for a "medium-soft landing," he stresses the need for serious engagement with these challenges.

4. Political Violence Internationally: Gaza and Ukraine

A. Gaza: Historical Lessons and the Limits of Military Power

• Historical Parallels

  • Pape provides overviews of Israel’s earlier interventions in Lebanon and the evolution of Hezbollah (1982 onwards), drawing direct parallels to actions in Gaza and the rise of Hamas.

    "Israel created the birth of Hezbollah by its invasion... and Israel is still living with that Frankenstein monster." (B, 18:24)

• Backlash Dynamics

  • Forceful policies—be it occupation or airstrikes—unify terrorist groups and local populations, fostering backlash rather than suppression:

    "The very fact of Israel’s invasion made Hezbollah more and more popular... a recruiting bonanza.” (B, 18:24)

• Misplaced Faith in Air Power

  • Both Israel and prior US campaigns (Iraq, Afghanistan) reflect "excessive faith in the coercive magic of air power," a strategy repeatedly shown to be counter-productive.

    “Air power strategists... became inordinately persuaded that air power could win wars by damaging the morale... that has no actual empirical support." (B, 24:16) "All you do is unify that population around [the terror group] even more." (B, 24:16)

• Policy Advice

  • Advocates freezing Israeli settlements until 2030 as a way to offer credible, legitimate alternatives to Hamas and reduce the cycle of violence.

    "I think a good way... would be to freeze the Jewish settlements until the year 2030, just literally freeze them and to see if that can encourage some alternatives to Hamas..." (B, 28:08)

B. Ukraine: The Futility of Punishing Civilian Populations

• Russian Air Campaigns
  • Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure have only “stiffened the backbone” of the Ukrainian public.

    "All that’s happened by Putin’s strategy of punishing civilians is he stiffened the backbone of the Ukrainians and he’s made his hole deeper." (B, 29:46)

Memorable Quotes

• "Political violence is like studying wildfires... we can scientifically measure the size of the combustible material... but what we can't do... is predict the timing of a lightning strike or a cigar butt being thrown." (Robert Pape, 05:29)
• "We are now going through the heart of the transition from a white majority democracy to a white minority multiracial democracy... starting about 10 years ago... and that corresponds to the rise of Donald Trump." (Robert Pape, 08:22)
• "Whoever wins, we are going to see likely a deep crisis of legitimacy in terms of whether we believe the new government is deserving of our allegiance." (Robert Pape, 15:19)
• "The very fact of Israel’s invasion made Hezbollah more and more popular... a recruiting bonanza." (Robert Pape, 18:24)
• "Air power strategists... became inordinately persuaded that air power could win wars by damaging the morale... that has no actual empirical support." (Robert Pape, 24:16)
• "All that’s happened by Putin’s strategy of punishing civilians is he stiffened the backbone of the Ukrainians and he’s made his hole deeper." (Robert Pape, 29:46)

Important Timestamps

• 00:06 – Definition of violent populism and the historical context
• 02:24 – Data on public support for political violence and survey methodology
• 07:26 – Statistics on Americans’ support for the use of force and the rise in domestic terrorism
• 08:22 – Discussion of America’s demographic transition as the root of current social strife
• 13:52 – International parallels to US trends and social change
• 15:19 – Anticipated post-election legitimacy crisis
• 18:24 – Lessons from Israel’s interventions in Lebanon and Gaza
• 24:16 – The futility and dangers of overreliance on air power
• 28:08 – Policy recommendations for Israel’s future approach in Gaza
• 29:46 – The Russian air campaign in Ukraine and its backfiring impact

Conclusion

Robert Pape’s analysis ties together rising violence in the US and abroad as part of broader demographic and social transitions, warning that neither electoral nor military solutions alone can address the grievances or the legitimacy crises at hand. His central recommendation: societies and states must engage with the underlying causes of violence—be they demographic anxieties, eroding legitimacy, or misguided reliance on force—otherwise, instability is set only to deepen.