The Foreign Affairs Interview: The Strength of Trump’s Foreign Policy Date: November 13, 2025
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (A), Editor of Foreign Affairs
Guest: Robert O’Brien (B), former National Security Adviser under President Trump

Episode Overview

In this in-depth episode, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan sits down with Robert O’Brien to analyze the direction, assumptions, and objectives of Donald Trump’s second-term foreign policy. O’Brien—one of Trump’s closest and most loyal advisers—offers an insider’s perspective on what has changed since the first term, Trump's approach to major global issues, ongoing strategy shifts, and his legacy’s broader impact. The conversation is candid, occasionally combative, and rich in policy substance, covering China, Ukraine, alliances, Iran, India, Venezuela, and the evolving approach to American global leadership.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. China Policy in Trump’s Second Term

• Shift from First Term: While Trump oversaw a dramatic hardening on China in the first term, the second term features, according to O’Brien, a more pragmatic detente combined with continued strategic competition, particularly as the U.S. faces multiple urgent crises elsewhere.
• Rare Earths & Supply Chains:
  • O’Brien criticizes the Biden administration for suspending U.S. development of rare earths processing and extraction, citing environmental concerns and ceding leverage to China. Trump is focused on “rectifying that situation” with deals in Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Australia, and diplomatic initiatives with Denmark over Greenland. (02:09–06:00)
  • Notably, addressing refining capacity is now a priority: “It’s not just extracting the rare earths. Once we extract them, if you can’t refine them and…the only country with capacity to do so is China, we’re in the same boat.” — O’Brien, [05:11]
• Approach to Conflict Avoidance:
  • Trump “wants to avoid a trade war or a cold war with China,” provided they “stay out of Taiwan” and regional aggression is checked by restored “strategic ambiguity.” (06:00–06:55)
  • “I think President Trump feels that he’s got a good enough relationship with President Xi and President Xi knows that Trump is mercurial enough that if he invades Taiwan, that there truly is strategic ambiguity now again restored.” — O’Brien, [05:42]
• Tariff & Trade Policy Lessons:
  • On tariffs, O’Brien admits the U.S. may have been too aggressive “before shoring up our own vulnerabilities on rare earths” but argues China may have overplayed its hand in weaponizing export controls, creating a backlash and movement toward “industrial policy” for rare earths in the U.S. and allies. (07:22–09:23)
• On the CCP’s Nature and Long-term Adversarial Posture:
  • O’Brien remains deeply hawkish: “The CCP has not changed its stripes…it’s still a Marxist, Leninist, totalitarian power.” — O’Brien, [10:04]
• Debating Export Controls & Legacy Chips:
  • O’Brien defends limiting only cutting-edge chips to China, favoring access to U.S. (vs. Chinese) chips for global tech infrastructure, with an eye to AI/quantum computing. He diverges somewhat from former deputy Matt Pottinger on how much to restrict “legacy” chips. (12:06–15:19)

2. Strategic Ambiguity & America’s Global Plate

• The administration is seen as “pausing” some hardline tactics with China to deal with other urgent issues: “We’ve got a very big foreign policy plate…all those things militate for a pause.”
• However, “the fundamentals of the relationship have not changed dramatically.” (10:04–11:36)

3. Venezuela, Drugs, and Regime Change

• O’Brien contends U.S. escalation against drug smuggling networks is about fighting the fentanyl and cocaine crisis, not explicitly about regime change. However, regime change in Venezuela may become a byproduct: “If that means Maduro has to go, it means he has to go. But I truly believe this is driven by the drug situation.” — O’Brien, [21:48]
• Suggests Maduro should “pull a Ghani” and flee with his money. (21:54–22:56)

4. Alliances, Burden-Sharing, and Trump’s NATO Doctrine

• O’Brien lauds Trump’s pressure on allies to increase defense spending as “revitalizing” for NATO, arguing prior presidents failed where Trump succeeded. Alliance reliability concerns are the “price” for restoring alliance reciprocity. (24:05–28:46)
• “It’s not fair that some school teacher in Tennessee is bearing the burden of that [German vacations]. That just fundamentally isn’t right.” — O’Brien, [28:20]

5. Rifts and Realignments: The India Conundrum

• Discusses a surprising downturn in U.S.-India relations, attributing it to India’s slow and tough trade negotiations and U.S. sanctions over India’s refining and resale of Russian oil—moves intended more for signaling to Russia than punishing India. (31:10–36:22)

6. Ukraine and Russia: Trump’s "Generous" but Rejected Offer

• O’Brien details a plan offered to Putin: recognition of Crimea, freezing Donbass lines, no NATO membership for Ukraine but robust peacekeeping, a security guarantee, and full sanctions relief—an offer he frames as “very generous,” but one Putin rejected due to other motivations. (36:40–40:50)
• “I misunderstimated Vladimir Putin and his, you know, commitment to the war.” — O’Brien, [36:41]
• Rejects ideas that Trump is “played” by Putin; says Trump's ability to maintain dialogue does not indicate “sympathy for their cause.” (41:17–44:50)

7. Escalation & Deterrence: Economic and Military Tools

• Sees escalated “economic pressure” as Trump’s likely lever against Russia, though warns about risks of military escalation, citing the gravity of nuclear risks for a President. Suggests more robust sanctions—including removing Russia from SWIFT and other global systems—can pressure Russia effectively. (45:00–46:38)

8. Middle East: Strikes, Diplomacy, and the Two-State Solution

• On Iran: Predicts the regime is unlikely to negotiate away nuclear weapons due to their belief in nuclear capability as regime survival, though Trump remains open to negotiation if real. (47:09–49:08)
• On Gaza and Israel-Palestine: Though Trump is seen as supportive of a two-state solution with robust security guarantees, recent events (Oct 7 massacre) have hardened Israeli positions and make peace contingent on deep Palestinian societal change. (49:35–53:28)
• “[A two-state solution] is probably the ultimately the only way to get to some end point. So I think Trump would be amenable to that.” — O’Brien, [52:07]
• “You can’t ask Israelis to forget what happened [on October 7th]. There has to be a new Palestinian attitude.” — O’Brien, [53:28]

9. Nuclear Testing and the Arms Race

• Trump’s call for a return to nuclear testing is described as 100% Trump’s idea, responding to Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons developments and cheating on treaties. O’Brien is confident in U.S. technologic superiority if forced into a renewed arms race. (54:03–59:03)

10. The National Security Policy Process: What’s Changed?

• Trump’s Second-Term Bureaucracy Management:
  • O’Brien credits Trump with mastery of “the levers of power,” citing a hardened, less forgiving approach to bureaucratic resistance. (“The outright resistance just isn’t going to be tolerated now.” — O’Brien, [63:35])
• He praises Marco Rubio’s dual-hatted leadership as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, comparing him to Kissinger. The “process is working better than people thought it would,” despite outside skepticism. (59:03–64:57)

11. Order, Sovereignty, and Trump’s Vision for the International System

• Trump is described as believing in “democracy and sovereignty,” skeptical of global governance, and dismissive of the “rules-based international order” as a guiding concept, emphasizing classic non-interference and national interest above supranational ideals. (64:57–66:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On China’s Leverage:
  “If the auto industry doesn’t have access to those rare earth elements… the American automobile industry shuts down.” — O’Brien, [02:54]
• On Changing Reality with China:
  “It’s not just extracting the rare earths… if the only country with capacity to do so is China, we’re in the same boat.” — O’Brien, [05:11]
• On Allies and Burden Sharing:
  “It’s not fair that some school teacher in Tennessee is bearing the burden… that just fundamentally isn’t right.” — O’Brien, [28:20]
• On Ukraine Offer:
  “It was a very generous package for the Russians… and yet [Putin] did [not accept], and he continues the war.” — O’Brien, [38:25]
• On Policy-Making Process:
  “President Trump is very, very aware of where all his levers are. He had a well formulated policy that he was going to implement.” — O’Brien, [59:34]
• On U.S. Vision for World Order:
  “He doesn’t believe nations should be invading each other… that’s the foundation of the west, it’s the foundation of the UN.” — O’Brien, [65:17]
• On Canada:
  “We’re not going to invade Canada… If Alberta wants to come on board, that’s great.” — O’Brien, [66:58]

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|-------------------------------------| | 02:09–06:00| U.S.-China rare earths and supply chain strategy | | 06:00–09:23| Detente with China, tariffs, and supply vulnerabilities | | 11:36–15:19| Export controls, chips, divergence with Matt Pottinger | | 17:31–22:56| Venezuela: drugs, strikes, and regime change contingency | | 24:05–28:46| NATO, burden-sharing, alliance policy | | 31:10–36:22| India relationship: trade and sanctions | | 36:40–44:50| Ukraine strategy, the Putin dilemma, and peace offers | | 45:00–46:38| Escalation, military, and economic tools in Russia | | 47:09–53:28| Iran strikes and Gaza—two-state solution discussion | | 54:03–59:03| Nuclear testing and deterrence strategy | | 59:03–64:57| Trump’s learning curve, process changes, bureaucracy | | 64:57–66:55| The liberal international order and Trump’s world vision |

Tone and Language

Throughout the episode, the tone is candid, assertive, occasionally defensive, and thoroughly pragmatic. O’Brien frames Trump’s approach as realist, transactional, and focused on restoring U.S. leverage—whether dealing with adversaries like China and Russia or allies in Europe and Asia. He defends both the administration’s policy record and process, pushing back on criticisms of both intent and competence.

Summary for New Listeners

This episode gives an authoritative, inside look at the evolution and logic of Trump’s second-term foreign policy. Robert O’Brien’s reflections cover both the substance and style of Trump’s international stance—a blend of tough realism, operational learning (and “learning the levers of power”), and continued unpredictability. Key themes: reshaping the U.S. approach to China, recalibrating alliances for greater reciprocity, managing acute crises in Ukraine and Iran, and reasserting classical sovereignty as the bedrock of American international engagement. For anyone wanting to understand where U.S. foreign policy may be headed—and why—it’s a must-listen discussion offering clarity, nuance, and occasional surprise.