The View From Israel One Year After October 7 - The Foreign Affairs Interview

Podcast Summary: The View From Israel One Year After October 7

Podcast: The Foreign Affairs Interview
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Foreign Affairs Magazine
Guest: Ari Shavit, Israeli writer and commentator
Release Date: October 10, 2024

Episode Overview

One year after the Hamas October 7 assault on Israel, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan sits down with Ari Shavit to discuss the profound impact of the October 7 attacks on Israeli society, politics, and security. The conversation explores how the war has exposed vulnerabilities, reshaped narratives, and brought existential questions to the forefront—not only for Israel, but for the global order. Shavit calls for a new Israeli and international strategy to address a conflict whose roots and implications run far deeper than a mere Israel-Hamas struggle.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

The Trauma of October 7 and Its Aftermath

Impact on Israeli Psyche
- October 7 marked the end of fifty years of relative security, shattering the myth of Israel’s invulnerability.
  - “It ended a 50 year golden era of Israeli relative security…for nearly half a century, there was no real immediate existential threat to Israel…What October 7th did is to take us back in time.” (Ari Shavit, 01:47)
- Israelis felt abruptly pulled “back to our traumatic Jewish past,” with an event regarded as “the worst atrocity since the Holocaust.” (Ari Shavit, 01:47)
- The atrocities committed—rape, kidnapping, beheadings—were characterized as “medieval stuff…a thousand years back in time.” (Ari Shavit, 04:11)
- A pervasive sense of helplessness and insecurity now grips the nation:
  - “The feeling was that nothing is safe, that there is no safety whatsoever…For many years. This was a horrible shock. And to this day, I think that's a shock for all of us that we are still trying to deal with.” (Ari Shavit, 08:33)

Misconceptions and Blind Spots in Israeli Politics

Disengagement from the Palestinian Issue
- Prior to the attacks, Israelis felt they had “escaped the Middle East”—emulating Western lifestyles and largely ignoring the realities around them. (Ari Shavit, 05:55)
- Both political left and right were blind: conservatives ignored Palestinian suffering, while the left misunderstood the existential nature of the conflict.
  - “The Palestinian Israeli conflict is not about settlements…It's about the very existence of a Jewish democratic state in this land.” (Ari Shavit, 07:10)
- The October 7 attack shattered complacency about these issues.

The Year in Three Phases

Immediate Unity and Resilience, Followed by Dysfunction, Then Military Recovery
- First phase: Social solidarity and resilience in the face of trauma; the army and society united.
  - “Israeli society, young people, soldiers, the hostages, families…the people who became refugees…it was incredible. There was a shock, but there was amazing resilience and internal human strength.” (Ari Shavit, 09:34)
- Second phase: Return to “petty politics,” government dysfunction, and public despair.
- Most recently: Military success restored deterrence, especially regarding Hezbollah in the north.
  - “Deterrence was cracked in October 7th and we didn't manage to rebuild it. Now it’s back.” (Ari Shavit, 12:06)
- Despite military recovery, the political system remains dysfunctional, and Netanyahu’s hold on power persists—something Shavit finds shocking.
  - “If you had told me that 1200 people will be slaughtered in such a way, we'll have a year long war and still we will have the same government…that's a shocking surprise.” (Ari Shavit, 13:17)

Israel’s Strategic Failure: The Absence of a National Strategy

Local, Regional, and Global Dimensions
- Shavit insists the conflict is three-tiered: local (Israel-Hamas), regional (Iran), and global (Iran backed by Russia and China).
  - “What we have here is a three tier war…local level of Israel-Hamas, regional level of Iran, and the global level of the Chinese, Russian, North Korean, Iranian axis attacking world order.” (Ari Shavit, 14:39)
- Netanyahu’s government is criticized for focusing solely on Hamas, neglecting the Iranian and broader global dimensions.
  - “It was the greatest failure in my mind of my government that it failed to tell that story because it was so preoccupied with a military campaign against Hamas that it totally overlooked the Iranian dimension and the global dimension.” (Ari Shavit, 16:27)
- Shavit calls for reframing the conflict as one between the free world and a hostile axis.

International Perception of Civilian Suffering in Gaza

Defending Israel’s Conduct but Critiquing Policy
- Shavit acknowledges the brutality and tragic civilian harm, but defends Israel by comparing it to U.S. military actions against terrorism.
  - “War is not pretty. And war against terror…is a challenging war…So I find it disturbing when some people don’t accept the fact that when Israelis have to defend themselves, bad things happen.” (Ari Shavit, 20:28)
- Criticizes Netanyahu’s government for failing to offer a “horizon of peace”—a vision for Palestinian freedom, Gaza’s future, and how the war could lead to a better outcome for all.
  - “You have to promise that you are going to free the Palestinians themselves from the tyranny of Hamas…it as a part of a larger campaign for the good.” (Ari Shavit, 22:28)

Vision for Gaza's Future: Moderate Arab-Led Reconstruction

Role for UAE and Moderate Islam
- Advocates a post-Hamas Gaza, rebuilt and moderated under an Arab coalition led by the UAE, rather than imposed solely by Israel or a weak Palestinian Authority.
  - “I think that if we had a kind of Emirates led Arab coalition that will be responsible for the rebuilding of Gaza, that Israel can hand it over to them…” (Ari Shavit, 23:40)
- Emphasizes the importance of religious identity and moderate mosques to counter radicalism.
  - “I would begin the rebuilding of Gaza with building 500 shining moderate mosques. You need to address the identity and religious issues.” (Ari Shavit, 24:44)

The Two-State Solution and Beyond

The Need for Creative New Approaches
- Shavit argues that the old two-state framework has failed and requires reimagining, but one-state solutions are even less viable.
  - “The international community has to acknowledge the fact that the attempt to bring about the old two state solution as it was framed in the 1990s didn’t work…I think it calls for creative thinking.” (Ari Shavit, 26:33)
- Lasting peace will require “profound political conversion” on both sides—Palestinians must renounce extremism and accept Israel’s legitimacy; Israelis must recognize their responsibilities.
  - “Palestinians will have to…acknowledge in a profound way the legitimacy of a Jewish democratic state in this land. And Israelis will have to…find a way to coexist.” (Ari Shavit, 28:18)

The Regional and Nuclear Dimension

Strength, Justice, and the Iranian Threat
- True peace and security, says Shavit, require both overwhelming strength and a commitment to justice and moral high ground—echoing Ben-Gurion’s legacy.
  - “We need strength, but we need justice…We have to be on the right side of history. We have to capture the moral high ground, but at the same time we have to be strong.” (Ari Shavit, 31:25)
- The greatest danger is Iranian nuclearization, which would destabilize the entire region and lead to proliferation of nuclear weapons across the Middle East and beyond.
  - “If Iran goes nuclear…you will have a multinuclear system, something we never tried before in the world's most unstable region…my prime minister…made it an Israeli issue. It's not an Israeli issue. This endangers all of us.” (Ari Shavit, 32:34)

Netanyahu’s “Theory of Victory” and Strategic Limitations

Saudi Normalization and Political Paralysis
- Netanyahu sought regional security and prosperity through normalization with Saudi Arabia, but is held hostage by Israeli political extremism.
  - “The problem is that the crazy Israeli politics…doesn’t allow him to pay in Palestinian currency which is so essential to have that deal.” (Ari Shavit, 34:33)
- Shavit believes real change will only come after Iranian radicalism is defeated and calls for a global alliance—including moderate Arabs and Iranians themselves—to counter it.
  - “We will have peace and stability…only after Iranian radicalism is defeated…If we will acknowledge the Iranian threat, it's not too late to stop it. If we will wait and Iran will get nuclear, the price of stopping it will be 10 times, 100 times higher.” (Ari Shavit, 36:13)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On National Trauma:

“October 7th was…a pogrom. It took us back to our traumatic Jewish past. It was the worst atrocity since the Holocaust.” (Ari Shavit, 01:47)
On Israeli Political Dysfunction:

“One of the striking features of Israel is that what I call real Israel is amazing…But political Israel is even worse than political America.” (Ari Shavit, 13:17)
On the Broader Stakes:

“This is not about Israel and Hamas…What we have here is a three tier war…local, regional, and global…It was an attack on the free world.” (Ari Shavit, 14:39)
On Gaza’s Future:

“Gaza will not become Denmark and it will not, it will not be San Francisco…The horizon for Gaza will be Dubai. I think that's the best we can hope for.” (Ari Shavit, 25:22)
On Israel’s Need for Strength and Justice:

“We need strength, but we need justice…We have to capture the moral high ground, but at the same time we have to be strong.” (Ari Shavit, 31:25)
On Iranian Nuclear Risk:

“If Iran goes nuclear…you will have a multinuclear system, something we never tried before in the world’s most unstable region. And that will spread…” (Ari Shavit, 32:44)
On the Path to Peace:

“The theory of victory and the theory of peace are the same. We need a new Iran, a non radical Iran that the moderate Arabs and moderate Israelis will be able to deal with the Israeli Palestinian conflict…after defeating this radical dragon that is endangering everybody.” (Ari Shavit, 36:55)

Timeline of Key Segments

[01:47]: Ari Shavit describes the trauma of October 7 and its psychological impact.
[05:55]: Discussion on Israeli illusions prior to October 7 and political blindness on the Palestinian issue.
[09:34]: Shavit outlines the three phases of Israeli society in the past year.
[14:22]: Critique of Israel’s lack of a national strategy and framing of the triple-tiered conflict.
[20:28]: Defense of Israeli military conduct, critique of lack of political horizon for Gaza.
[23:40]: Proposal for an Arab-led reconstruction and moderation of postwar Gaza.
[26:33]: Analysis of the two-state solution’s limitations and call for new approaches.
[32:34]: Warning about Iranian nuclearization and call for concerted global action.
[33:45]: Critique of Netanyahu’s strategic vision and the constraints of Israeli politics.
[36:55]: Concluding prescription: To defeat radicalism, enable regional peace, and focus on a transformed Iran.

Conclusion

This episode provides an in-depth, candid Israeli perspective on the seismic shock of October 7 and its aftermath. Shavit urges Israelis, their leaders, and international allies to recognize the scale and stakes of the conflict—arguing for a new national strategy, international coalition, and a reinvigoration of the vision for both Israeli security and Palestinian viability. His message is one of both warning and hope: that only by confronting regional threats, reforming Israeli politics, and deepening moral commitments can lasting security and peace be achieved.