Summary of "What Does Trump See in Putin?"
The Foreign Affairs Interview
Hosted by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan
Released on March 13, 2025

In the episode titled "What Does Trump See in Putin?" The Foreign Affairs Interview delves deep into the intricate and often contentious relationship between former President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Hosted by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, the conversation with renowned Russia and Ukraine expert Fiona Hill provides a comprehensive analysis of the evolving dynamics shaping global geopolitics, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the broader implications for international relations.

1. Introduction: Setting the Stage (00:00 - 02:00)

Daniel Kurtz-Phelan opens the discussion by highlighting the critical juncture in US-Russia relations early in Trump's second term. Fiona Hill introduces herself, emphasizing her extensive background in studying Putin and her role in the National Security Council during Trump's first administration.

2. Trump’s Rapid Policy Shifts (02:00 - 06:38)

Speed of Trump's Actions:
Fiona Hill remarks on the unprecedented speed with which Trump has reshaped US policies toward Russia, expressing surprise at the rapid developments within just seven weeks into his second term.

"Speed. You just had seven weeks and I thought, gosh, has it only been seven weeks? Yes, it's definitely the speed of things." (02:09)

Trump-Zelensky Meeting:
Hill provides a critical analysis of Trump's interaction with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, drawing parallels to the 2019 impeachment episode. She asserts that Trump's antipathy towards Zelensky and Ukraine is evident, undermining previous US commitments and expectations.

"Trump was basically telling Zelenskyy that he had to make a personal agreement, in effect, a treaty of friendship with him." (04:30)

3. Dynamics in the Oval Office (06:38 - 12:49)

Comparison to Helsinki Meeting:
Hill references her 2021 essay, "The Kremlin's Strange Victory," to compare the current Trump-Putin interactions to the infamous 2018 Helsinki summit. She discusses Trump's fixation on personal rapport with Putin, often at the expense of strategic policy considerations.

"He sees Putin as an extraordinarily powerful individual. He's got name recognition, face recognition. You know, even Americans who can't tell..." (07:45)

Preparedness and Interpretation Issues:
Hill critiques Trump's lack of preparation for high-stakes meetings with Putin, highlighting the absence of effective interpreters and strategic envoys, which undermines meaningful dialogue.

"He doesn't want to clamp down on money in politics because it's extraordinarily useful for Trump." (10:20)

4. European Responses and Security Concerns (12:49 - 28:23)

Europe's Alarm and Actions:
Hill examines Europe's response to Trump's policies and Russia's maneuvers, noting a surge in defense spending and military readiness among European nations. She underscores the belated but necessary shift towards greater self-reliance in defense.

"The problem has been the speed of it. People have just been in a state of shock..." (28:36)

NATO and European Unity:
The discussion touches on the challenges facing NATO and the EU as Europe grapples with the dual threats of Russian aggression and diminishing US support. Hill emphasizes the importance of cohesive European defense strategies.

"European countries are trying to navigate the more conventional, so to speak, threat from Russia, are also trying to navigate what was a very unconventional threat now from the United States..." (28:36)

5. Putin’s Strategic Calculations and Potential Aggressions (28:23 - 35:52)

Triumphalism in Moscow:
Hill observes a mix of confidence and uncertainty within Russian leadership, noting that Putin believes he can manipulate the current geopolitical landscape to his advantage, despite setbacks in Ukraine.

"Putin still thinks that he can manipulate the situation." (12:49)

Potential for Further Aggression:
She warns of continued Russian tactics beyond direct military action, including cyber attacks, assassinations, and psychological operations aimed at destabilizing Europe and undermining US influence.

"Putin's already emboldened and there's going to be more of this." (35:52)

6. Implications for Global Order and Future Projections (37:45 - 46:43)

Convergence of Worldviews:
Hill discusses the troubling alignment between Trump's and Putin's perspectives on global governance, both favoring strongman leadership and spheres of influence, which threatens the existing international order.

"Trump is using and the people around him this idea of unitary executive to kind of recreate something that the US cast off 250 years ago." (37:45)

Multipolar World Challenges:
She underscores the complexity of today's global landscape, with rising powers like China, India, and others asserting their influence, making any simplistic tripartite model unfeasible.

"You're going to have much more interest by other powers becoming nuclear powers." (37:45)

7. Erosion of US Alliances and Increased Russian-Chinese Partnership (40:54 - 51:07)

Strengthening of Russian-Chinese Ties:
Hill explains how Russia's dependence on China has deepened amid sanctions and economic pressures, leading to a more robust strategic partnership that complicates US efforts to counterbalance.

"Russia has become more dependent over the course of this war in Ukraine on China in ways that the Russians themselves would have resisted." (41:17)

Challenges to US Influence:
She highlights the erosion of US alliances and the growing perception of the US as unreliable, further emboldening Russia and its allies to pursue aggressive policies.

"There's a genuine rupture in the relationship between the United States and its allies at this point." (41:17)

8. Trump's Personal Enchantment with Russia and Conclusion (51:07 - 57:00)

Enamored Relationship with Russia:
Hill delves into the psychological and personal factors driving Trump's affinity for Putin, suggesting that Trump's real estate and business dealings have mirrored imperialistic tendencies, fostering a misplaced admiration for strongman tactics.

"He was very much enamored of the Soviet Union at the time. He's very much in the 1980s realm." (46:43)

Potential for Further Destabilization:
She warns that Trump's focus on personal power and disunity within the US undermines global efforts to present a united front against authoritarianism, potentially leading to increased Russian provocations.

"President Trump is focused on disunity, on playing to his base, which is, you know, not as considerable as it kind of looks like from the outside." (56:51)

Final Warning:
Hill emphasizes the critical need for the US to restore social cohesion and strength to effectively counter Russia's manipulative strategies and prevent further erosion of democratic institutions.

"The only way to really get to pieces, to show that you are strong and resilient and to show that you are able to withstand all these kinds of provocations and to restore deterrence." (54:06)

Key Takeaways and Insights

• Personal Dynamics Over Policy: Trump's personal fascination and strategic interactions with Putin overshadow broader US-Russia policy considerations, potentially endangering global stability.

• European Security Imperative: Europe's delayed but increasing investment in defense underscores the necessity for continental self-reliance amidst diminishing US commitment.

• Russian Strategic Agility: Despite setbacks in Ukraine, Russia's multifaceted approach—including cyber warfare, assassinations, and psychological operations—continues to pose significant threats to global security.

• Global Order on the Brink: The erosion of Pax Americana, coupled with the rise of multipolar powers and strengthened Russian-Chinese ties, signals a profound transformation in the international system with unpredictable consequences.

• Call for US Resilience: Restoring internal unity and societal strength in the US is imperative to effectively counteract external authoritarian influences and preserve democratic institutions worldwide.

Notable Quotes

• Fiona Hill on Trump's Speed:
  "Speed. You just had seven weeks and I thought, gosh, has it only been seven weeks? Yes, it's definitely the speed of things." (02:09)

• On Trump’s Antipathy to Ukraine:
  "Trump was basically telling Zelenskyy that he had to make a personal agreement, in effect, a treaty of friendship with him." (04:30)

• Regarding Trump's Preparation for Meetings:
  "He doesn't want to clamp down on money in politics because it's extraordinarily useful for Trump." (10:20)

• Fiona Hill on Global Complexity:
  "We’re in a very different world. It’s not just a world of three powers." (37:45)

• On the Importance of US Unity:
  "The only way to really get to pieces, to show that you are strong and resilient and to show that you are able to withstand all these kinds of provocations and to restore deterrence." (54:06)

Conclusion

The episode "What Does Trump See in Putin?" offers a sobering analysis of the precarious state of US-Russia relations under Donald Trump's leadership. Fiona Hill articulates concerns about Trump's personal affinity for Putin undermining strategic policy objectives, the consequent destabilization of European security, and the broader implications for the global order. The discussion serves as a critical reminder of the intricate interplay between individual leadership styles and international relations, emphasizing the need for cohesive and resilient policies to navigate the complexities of modern geopolitics.