Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode: What Republican Foreign Policy Gets Wrong

Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Editor, Foreign Affairs
Guest: Kori Schake, Director, Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, AEI
Date: August 15, 2024

Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, features a candid and critical conversation with Kori Schake, a prominent conservative foreign policy expert and prolific writer. Their discussion centers on the evolution—and perceived decline—of traditional Republican internationalism, the substance and shortcomings of "America First" approaches, the legacy of recent US interventions, and the real-world risks and opportunities for US foreign policy under potential Trump and Biden (or Harris) administrations. With in-depth analyses of defense priorities, alliance politics, Ukraine, and broader global threats, the episode lays bare the stakes and challenges facing US foreign policy in 2024 and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Evolution of Republican Foreign Policy

• Consensus Lost: The Republican Party’s decades-old commitment—“promoting American security and economic power, while supporting the expansion of democracy”—is being rejected by the current party leadership.
• Core Critique: Critics of post-Cold War policy blame consensus for failed wars, economic decline, and adversary ascendancy.
  • Kori Schake: “Mistakes in foreign and security policy aren't unique to...the period of American dominance...these problems are legitimately difficult to get right.” (02:25)
• Free Trade Misunderstood:
  • The guest argues that letting China “play by different rules” was the real error—not free trade itself.
    • Quote: “The mistake about free trade...was allowing China to participate in the system of international trade without playing by the rules.” (02:57)
  • Solution: Don’t abandon trade, but “negotiate agreements that ensure the rules that constrain us also constrain others.” (03:27)

2. The Use of Military Force

• Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan:
  • Schake’s assessment: Hard to argue Iraq war wasn't “a tragic mistake.” Fear after 9/11 led to poor choices, and “that’s going to cast a long shadow in American national security policy. And it should.” (04:17)
  • Consequences for Credibility:
    • “It's almost impossible...to get American public support for a preventative strike on North Korea’s nuclear program, when in fact that's probably a good policy to have.” (05:04)
    • “Because we did it erroneously in Iraq...we can no longer run that play in North Korea when it might make more sense.” (05:45, Kurtz-Phelan; 05:57, Schake)
  • Gap Between Objectives and Resources:
    • Wars failed because “the gap between our political objectives and the resources we were willing to put to bear...was just enormous.” (05:57)
    • Public skepticism follows.
    • Modern example: “It continues in our objectives for the war in Ukraine versus the resources and risk we’re willing to put against it.” (06:54)

3. Making the Case for Internationalism to Voters

• “Voters do not need Republicans to pander to Trumpism...they do need Republicans to advance a theory for what is happening in the world and how the party intends to protect the country and secure Americans prosperity.” (07:21)
• Why support Ukraine?
  • Most aid benefits American defense industry.
  • Ukraine is “a canary in the coal mine” warning of U.S. defense shortfalls and adversary ambitions.
  • Supporting Ukraine precludes a wider and more expensive war later.
  • Quote: “Any alternative...may look cheap in the short run, but it is much more difficult to return an international order to positive circumstances once you have let it be overturned. And that's the World War II lesson.” (09:10)

4. Presidential Leadership: Explaining Policy

• Schake: “The single thing that has the biggest effect on American attitudes about...the world and...military force is the President's willingness to expend political capital to explain it to Americans again and again until it gets through.” (09:56)
• Biden is faulted for not personally making the case for Ukraine: “The American public responds much quicker and more powerfully if the President makes that case.” (10:35)

5. The “Adults in the Room” and Future Trump Policy

• Schake believes the restraining effect of seasoned military and establishment figures in Trump's first term will not return.
  • Quote: “What I think President Trump didn't understand...he thought military leaders were knife in the teeth killer torturers. And mostly what they are, are great teachers, great strategists and great logisticians.” (12:10)
  • Future Trump term likely to see no such internal checks—“we will all pay an enormous chaos premium.” (13:48)
  • Memorable Moment: “The bumper sticker I want for my car this election cycle is ‘boring competence’. I'm homesick for boring competence.” (13:56)

6. What Would a Systematic ‘America First’ Foreign Policy Look Like?

• Schake’s Predictions:
  • Alliances Weakened or Abandoned: “The bare knuckled financial disputes...[will] make much more unstable the international environment and will be an encouragement to our adversaries.” (14:41)
  • Trade Wars: “They're talking about a 60% tariff on all imports. So that’s a 60% plus up to the cost of everything Americans purchase.” (15:14)
  • Mean-Spirited Policy: Allies will find it harder to help the U.S.; loss of “the magnetism of American power [which] makes everything cheaper and easier.” (16:58)
  • Fiscal Contradictions: No evidence of fiscal discipline to match expensive defense priorities.
  • Quote: “The thing that Trump and Vance don't seem to realize is just how beneficial it is to the United States for people to want us to succeed.” (17:42)

7. Ukraine: What Would a Trump-Vance Administration Do?

• Trump’s claim to “end the war in a day” means Ukrainian capitulation:
  • “We can't force Russian capitulation. So that means they're going to have to force Ukrainian capitulation.” (18:41)
  • Research indicates it’s “a lot more expensive to ramp up the defense of the NATO territory than it is to help Ukraine succeed.” (19:03)

8. The "Harris Doctrine" (If Biden Isn’t the Democratic Nominee)

• Schake doubts there would be major shifts from Biden: “I don't think she has much of a profile on foreign policy...It's reasonable to assume it will largely be a continuation of Biden policy...” (19:42)
• Harris could be “as bad on trade policy” but not as extreme as a 60% tariff.
• Defense spending challenges expected; Congress will play a key role. (20:15)

9. Defense Spending: How Much is Enough?

• Current defense budget (~3.7% of GDP, $900B) “not a lot of money compared to the risks that are emergent.”
• Target should be about 6% of GDP—enough for two major wars, due to “the way China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and potentially other bad guy countries are behaving.” (22:14)
• Real challenge: Entitlement spending crowds out defense resources.
  • “It's dishonest to suggest that a country as prosperous as ours cannot afford to protect itself…” (21:47)
  • Fixing entitlements and debt is essential to preserve budget room for defense. (23:09)

10. “Two-War Standard” and Global Threats

• Schake: In the 1990s, single-war planning was fine; today’s world—far more dangerous—requires a stronger, more versatile military.
  • China, Russia, Iran, North Korea all pose more acute threats. (24:10)

11. Should America Force “Hard Choices” in Ukraine and Asia?

• “If we let Germany, France, Britain, Poland feel endangered without being willing to put our shoulder to the wheel beside them, I don't see how there's any credibility for the defense of Taiwan or anything else.” (26:10)
• Cutting off Ukraine support would undermine all US global commitments.

12. Criticism of Biden’s Ukraine Policy

• Main critique: Biden has been too risk-averse regarding escalation.
  • “Their [the administration's] intolerance of risk...has actually done an enormous amount to keep Russia fighting.” (26:40)
  • Suggests allowing Ukraine to use US weapons on Russian territory with clear red lines. (28:13)

13. The Middle East: Israel, Gaza, and Trump’s Potential Policy

• Accolades for Trump’s Abraham Accords, but sees Trump as unpredictable and motivated by “personal vendettas.”
• On Gaza: Sympathetic to Israel but worries about “sanctimoniousness and innocence about warfare” raising unattainable standards for Israel and others.
  • “Hamas is responsible...for making Palestinian civilians legitimate targets...by hiding amongst them, not wearing uniforms.” (29:50)
  • Concern that the U.S. sets operational standards for allies it may not meet itself in war.

14. The Defense Industrial Base: A Looming Vulnerability

• US industrial capacity has atrophied (“In 1990, there were 54 major defense companies...now there are five.” (32:51))
• Problem: Inconsistent funding, lack of political seriousness; even high-profile initiatives like AUKUS lack budgetary commitment.
  • Memorable Moment: “I'm almost to the point of thinking that just dump wheelbarrows of money off the roof of the Pentagon and see if it makes any difference...” (34:30)
  • The defense industrial base is “the biggest vulnerability of our country in defense policy.” (34:44)

15. Civil-Military Relations in the US

• Despite anxiety, the relationship is fundamentally strong. Real benchmarks:
  • The president can fire anyone.
  • The military executes policies it opposes.
  • Quote: “In almost no other free society is the military as influential and yet as comfortably subordinate to elected and appointed leadership as the American military.” (36:15)
  • The professionalism and restraint of the US military is exceptional.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The magnetism of American power makes everything cheaper and easier that we try and do in the world.” (17:49, Schake)
• “I'm homesick for boring competence.” (13:56, Schake)
• “It is dishonest to suggest that a country as prosperous as ours cannot afford to protect itself and protect its interests.” (21:56, Schake)
• “If we let Germany, France, Britain, Poland feel endangered without being willing to put our shoulder to the wheel beside them, I don't see how there's any credibility for the defense of Taiwan or anything else.” (26:10, Schake)
• “I'm almost to the point of thinking that just dump wheelbarrows of money off the roof of the Pentagon and see if it makes any difference, because we are in genuine dire straits in the defense industrial base.” (34:30, Schake)
• “In almost no other free society is the military as influential and yet as comfortably subordinate to elected and appointed leadership as the American military.” (36:15, Schake)

Timestamps for Major Topics

• 00:05 – Schake on what Trump/Vance get wrong about “the magnetism of American power”
• 02:25 – The right and wrong in post-Cold War Republican foreign policy critique
• 04:17 – Lessons from Iraq and Afghanistan, credibility gaps
• 07:21 – The rhetoric Republicans should use: making the case for “conservative internationalism”
• 11:55 – Trump’s first-term “adults in the room”: Did they constrain him? What comes next?
• 13:56 – “Homesick for boring competence”
• 14:33 – What would a systematic “America First” foreign policy look like?
• 18:34 – Ukraine war under Trump/Vance: What might happen?
• 19:42 – What to expect from Kamala Harris on foreign policy
• 21:47 – Defense spending: how much does the US really need?
• 23:51 – “Two war” standard—defense priorities in a changed world
• 26:07 – The Vance/Colby case: Prioritizing Asia over Ukraine?
• 26:40 – Critique of Biden’s risk-averse approach in Ukraine
• 29:02 – Middle East/Israel-Gaza: Would Trump’s policy change?
• 32:46 – Defense industrial base: “The biggest vulnerability of our country in defense policy”
• 35:18 – Civil-military relations: resilience and US exceptionalism

Tone & Approach

The tone throughout is forthright, learned, and urgent—a mix of policy critique and practical political advice, marked by clear concern for the future of US global leadership. Schake balances frank acknowledgment of US mistakes with robust defense of international engagement and the liberal order, while issuing repeated warnings about the dangers of both Trump-style isolationism and Democratic tendency to risk-aversion and underfunding.

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sobering, in-depth analysis of what’s at stake in contemporary US foreign policy debates. Through Schake’s perspective, listeners gain both an appreciation of conservative internationalism’s legacy and a sharp critique of both party extremes, with policy prescriptions ranging from defense budgeting to alliance diplomacy and renewal of US global purpose.