Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode: "Where Does Ukraine Go From Here?"

Date: February 27, 2025
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan (Editor, Foreign Affairs Magazine)
Guest: Natalia Gumenyuk (Ukrainian journalist, essayist for Foreign Affairs)
Interviewed by: Hugh Akin (Senior Editor, Foreign Affairs)

Brief Overview

This episode delves into Ukraine’s predicament amid shifting U.S. policy, mounting geopolitical pressure to reach a peace deal with Russia, and the internal resilience shaping Ukrainian society after three years of full-scale war. Drawing on her on-the-ground reporting, Natalia Gumenyuk outlines why Ukrainians resist "bad peace," the lived realities under Russian occupation, and why surrendering territory remains unacceptable for most Ukrainians. The conversation also reevaluates Western narratives surrounding the war, discussing the broader implications of Russia’s occupation strategy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Changing U.S. Policy and Ukrainian Reactions

• Shifts in U.S. Stance: The Trump administration’s direct engagement with Putin, derogatory rhetoric toward Zelenskyy, and its reluctance to support traditional European allies marks a dramatic shift. There’s mounting pressure on Ukraine to accept a settlement, possibly trading critical resources for tenuous security.
  • Quote:

    "You really don't want fully to lose the US support... But at the same time, there is a lot of determination, unexpectedly for me, unity... the immediate reaction is like, let's fight on our own. We'll make it whatsoever." — Natalia Gumenyuk (02:37)

• Not Entirely Unexpected: Ukrainian leadership has long anticipated decreased U.S. support and has been pragmatically preparing for this possibility.
  • Public Sentiment: General anger about resource deals with the U.S., and frustration over the tone and substance of negotiations.
  • Quote:

    "Quite a lot of people were furious about the deal with the US to have like half of the Ukrainian natural resources... People didn't like the tone. Emotionally, Ukrainians are more angry than generally the political leadership..." — Natalia Gumenyuk (07:55)

2. Military Situation & Resilience

• Frontline Developments: Despite continued loss of territory, recent weeks have seen a slowdown in the Russian advance. Ukrainian forces have made small gains, aided by improvements in drone defense, and local weapons production has increased markedly.
  • Quote:

    "It looks like it's better than half a year ago... for the last two weeks, the situation in Pokrovsk is definitely improving." — Natalia Gumenyuk (10:18)

• Dependency on Western Aid: Without continued Western—especially U.S.—aid, Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself is under threat. Ukrainian-produced arms now account for about 40% of what's used at the frontline.
  • Sustaining Western support, or finding alternatives, remains a central concern.

3. Civilian Life and “Abnormal Normalcy” Under War

• Daily Reality in Ukraine: Outside the frontlines and occupied regions, life continues with surprising normalcy: no blackout this winter, the economy operates, healthcare, banks, and education function, despite frequent air raids and nightly missile attacks.
  • Quote:

    "It's something very unusual, this abnormal normalcy... Life is kind of normal in most of the country... modern technology and generally the functioning state allows Ukrainians kind of live as if the war is not there, especially for those who are further from the frontline or in the big cities." — Natalia Gumenyuk (13:48)

• Occupation Is Worse: The prospect of trading current suffering for life under Russian rule is a “clear choice” — survival, however tenuous, is preferable to occupation.

4. Occupation as Strategy, Not Excess

• Reconceptualizing Occupation: Russian control is not temporary brutality—it is a systematic effort to corrode Ukrainian sovereignty. Human rights violations, forced Russification, population transfers, and administrative control are cornerstones of this strategy.
  • Quote:

    "Human rights abuses, political repression, and war crimes are in fact, a central part of Russia's war strategy... Russian control over any part of Ukraine subverts and corrodes Ukrainian sovereignty everywhere." — quoted by Hugh Akin from Gumenyuk's essay (17:43)

• The “Crimean Toolkit” and Expansion: The methods tested in Crimea after 2014 (mass repressions, population transfers) have become the blueprint for wider occupation since 2022.
  • Quote:

    "Eight years of the occupation of Crimea and the eastern Ukraine was a preparation by Russia to launch the bigger war, to use that territories as a launchpad for the war, militarize peninsulas, accumulate the troops there..." — Natalia Gumenyuk (19:44)

5. Life Under Russian Occupation

• Widespread Repressions: Arbitrary detention, torture, forced conscription, and deprivation of basic services are routine. Forced passportization and brainwashing of children through education are tools of erasure.
  • Quote:

    "All people from the occupied territories, almost all of them were at some moment detained, beaten, tortured, and dozens of them electrocuted. So it's really, the magnitude of the violence... is drastic." — Natalia Gumenyuk (24:55)

• Population Engineering: The systematic importation of Russians—800,000 in Crimea alone since 2014—aims to change demographics and erase Ukrainian identity in occupied zones.
  • Quote:

    "It's more or less erasing anything Ukrainian in the territories and creating long lasting problem." — Natalia Gumenyuk (28:38)

6. Negotiations, Guarantees, and Security Dilemmas

• Ukraine’s Stance: Any settlement without robust, enforceable security guarantees is unacceptable. NATO membership (or equivalent guarantees) is seen as the only viable deterrent.
  • Quote:

    "No deal is better than a bad deal." — Paraphrased by Hugh Akin (12:40)

  • Quote:

    "For Ukraine the most important is being even stronger protected than it is now. So Russia… would be this level of deterrence that the Russians won’t attack again." — Natalia Gumenyuk (37:03)

• Ceasefire as a Trap: A “freeze” along current frontlines is seen as only giving Russia time to remilitarize, reinforce, and erode Ukrainian society under occupation.
  • Quote:

    "The time in this regard is not on our side...[if] we agree for the freezing situation as it is, within a couple of years, children won't go to the schools where would be any sign of the Ukrainian language... huge propaganda brainwashing campaign." — Natalia Gumenyuk (28:38)

7. Russia’s Shifting (But Repetitive) Strategy

• Nothing New About Russian Demands: Current offers in negotiations echo the “Minsk” deals pre-2022, which involved “political settlement” on Russia’s terms, control via puppet administrations, and long-term destabilization.
  • Quote:

    "What Russia is offering today to the new American administration is more or less something which was there... for the last eight years." — Natalia Gumenyuk (22:43)

  • "Occupation is just another way of war. We cannot call the occupation... the peace, especially if it's used for further attacks." — Natalia Gumenyuk (41:45)

8. Ukrainian Resilience and The Road Ahead

• Sustainability of Resistance: Ukrainians are prepared for a long, harder fight, even at the cost of worsening living standards and potential demographic decline. Russia’s campaign to sow division and despair is ongoing, but the mood in Ukraine has become newly united and defiant following recent diplomatic setbacks.
  • Quote:

    "I haven't seen Ukrainians that determined and united for quite some time, for probably the last year. There is a moment, the feeling very similar, like Ukrainians had in February 2022, when the whole world was saying Kyiv would fall within three days. And Ukrainians were like, no, we will fight." — Natalia Gumenyuk (44:30)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the core Ukrainian war aim:

  “Ukrainian task is not really to destroy Russia...but make everything possible, that their mission in Ukraine will fail, and their mission is failing. It's already failed and it's failing.”
  — Natalia Gumenyuk (42:07)

• On why occupation is intolerable:

  “There is zero chance to survive in the Russian occupation if we stay there. For us, there is no chance.”
  — Natalia Gumenyuk (31:44)

• On the illusion of quick peace:

  “The settlement isn't the end... the occupation is not the peace. Occupation is just another way of war.”
  — Natalia Gumenyuk (41:45)

Suggested Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:37] — Natalia on Ukrainian reaction to U.S. policy changes, and unity despite dismay.
• [07:55] — The public anger over U.S.-Ukrainian resource deals.
• [13:48] — Life under “abnormal normalcy” and why Ukrainians fear occupation more than war.
• [17:43] — The occupation as Russian war strategy, not just brutality.
• [24:55] — How occupation operates: repression, population transfers, erasure.
• [28:38] — The demographic and identity consequences of engineered migration.
• [37:03] — Why only real security guarantees matter in negotiations.
• [41:45] — Occupation as continuation of war, not peace.
• [44:30] — The state of Ukrainian resilience and mood after diplomatic blows.

Conclusion

Natalia Gumenyuk’s account underscores the enormous gap between Western policy debates and the everyday realities and choices facing Ukrainian society. For most Ukrainians, the horror of occupation vastly outweighs the privations of war, and “bad peace” is synonymous with future disaster. The episode provides a stark, nuanced portrait of Ukrainian resilience, the intricacies of Russia’s occupation strategy, and the limits of international diplomacy—reminding listeners that, for Ukraine, survival and sovereignty must trump the allure of a quick, unstable settlement.