Podcast Summary: "Will the Cease-Fire With Iran Hold?"

The Foreign Affairs Interview – April 8, 2026
Host: Justin Vogt (Foreign Affairs Magazine, substituting for Daniel Kurtz-Phelan)
Guest: Suzanne Maloney (Vice President, Brookings Institution; Director, Foreign Policy Program)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the precarious cease-fire recently announced between the United States (under President Donald Trump), Israel, and Iran after a dramatic escalation over control of the Strait of Hormuz. With many uncertainties around the cease-fire’s details and durability, Justin Vogt talks with Middle East policy expert Suzanne Maloney to assess the underlying dynamics of strength, survival, and regional realignment in the aftermath of six weeks of intensive conflict.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Relative Strengths Revealed by the War

• Misjudgment by the Trump Administration:
  Maloney points out a critical miscalculation about the resilience and institutionalization of Iran’s Islamic Republic.

  • Quote: “The president presumed that the regime could be easily decapitated and that with its decapitation, the system itself would collapse... That was fundamentally untrue.” (Suzanne Maloney, 02:40)
  • Despite leadership losses and public discontent, the regime's endurance—militarily and institutionally—prevailed.

• Iran’s Endurance and Strategic Leverage:

  • Iran weathered sustained attacks by the U.S. and Israel, maintaining the ability to threaten and control the Strait of Hormuz.
  • The burden shifted to the U.S. to find an "off-ramp," particularly as Iran’s chokehold on the strait impacted the global economy.
    • Quote: “Their ability to withstand the pummeling from two technologically and militarily superior adversaries... and still have the capacity to return fire... that endurance is not just in the form of their military... but [in] their ability to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz.” (Maloney, 04:08)

The Strait of Hormuz as Deterrent

• Initially considered a rhetorical threat, Iran’s move to close the Strait—successfully disrupting global commodities beyond oil—provided leverage surpassing its lack of a nuclear deterrent.
  • Quote: “They didn’t need a nuclear deterrent. They had this kind of conventional choke point deterrent the whole time.” (Vogt, 06:00)
  • Attempting to find alternative shipping routes failed to offset the economic disruption. (Maloney, 06:46)

Tehran’s Leadership and Command Structure

• Despite leadership decapitations (notably the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei), Iran’s system continued with highly experienced Revolutionary Guard members in charge.
  • Quote: “It just speaks to how well-oiled a machine the Islamic Republic has become. This is not a regime that was going to be quickly taken down by the elimination of its top leadership.” (Maloney, 09:54)
• The main negotiator highlighted is Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, with the status of Khamenei’s successor, Mujtaba Khamenei, unclear. (Maloney, 08:25)

Terms and Leverage of the Cease-Fire

• Iran agreed to re-open the Strait for two weeks but on its own terms.
  • Quote: “Iran has agreed to reopen the strait, but only on its own terms, which is, fundamentally stunning. That is an outcome that the regime might have hoped for.” (Maloney, 11:38)
• Fundamental questions about Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and control over proxies remain unsettled, bolstering Iran’s negotiating stance.

What Iran Lost in the Conflict

• Leadership casualties will have long-term effects; the death of Ali Khamenei is both a symbolic and practical blow.
  • Quote: “There’s the symbolic loss of Ali Khamenei… is a humiliation for the regime itself.” (Maloney, 12:51)
• Military and economic infrastructure is battered, and Iran faces the challenge of rebuilding an isolated, fragile economy.

Prospects for a Lasting Agreement

• Major unresolved issues (nuclear enrichment, sanctions, regional militias, U.S. bases) make a comprehensive deal unlikely in the two-week timeline of the cease-fire.
  • Quote: “There’s almost no hope of negotiating anything that looks like the [JCPOA]… I think that, you know, the goal would be to try to establish some principles that all sides can agree to. I think even that will be a very high bar.” (Maloney, 15:17)
• Economic self-interest for all parties—especially avoiding global recession—may incentivize maintaining at least a “cold peace.”

The Role of Other Powers

• China, Russia, and India played a moderating role, increasingly pressuring Iran as the economic fallout of the strait closure worsened.
  • Quote: “Beijing has invested all over the world. They don’t want to see a global recession any more than the Trump administration wants to see a global recession.” (Maloney, 18:48)

The Evolution of Iran’s Regime ("Third Islamic Republic")

• First Islamic Republic (1979-1989): State-building under Khomeini, diverse revolutionary coalition, war with Iraq.
• Second Islamic Republic (1989-2026): Institutionalization under Ali Khamenei, dominance of the Revolutionary Guard, entrenchment in economy and politics.
• Third Islamic Republic (present): Military poised to take primacy, clerical influence sidelined but symbiotic, political elite retains consolidated control.
  • Quote: “What we’re seeing now, I think, in this third Islamic Republic is going to be one in which Khamenei’s project is brought to fruition, in which the military takes the upper hand. The clerics are in some respects shoved to the side, but there is a symbiotic relationship between them.” (Maloney, 24:20)

U.S.-Israeli Divergence & Lebanon

• Israeli goals remain distinct from U.S. priorities—Israel’s focus is lasting deterrence against surprise attacks, even at regional cost.
• Israel has escalated operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon even as the U.S. seeks to wind down involvement.
  • Quote: “There’s always been some misalignment between what President Trump wanted… and what Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted... For the Israelis, this was part of a larger effort to ensure… never again [another] traumatic surprise attack.” (Maloney, 25:40)

Public Reaction & Regime Legitimacy

• For Iranians, the regime retains control by force; despite suffering, no significant “rally around the flag” effect observed.
• The war and regime repression have further battered the prospects for internal reform.
  • Quote: “If one has to point to the side that has lost the most as a result of this conflict, I think it is the Iranian people, the cause of democracy in Iran, and it is why the decision to undertake this war was so deeply misguided by the Trump administration.” (Maloney, 31:00)

Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• “[Iran’s] ability to prevail and to continue to control the straits even after the end of the conflict would be a complete strategic rebalancing for the region and, frankly, for the United States.”
  — Suzanne Maloney (00:05, 11:38)
• “Wars usually begin when two nations disagree about their relative strength, and wars usually cease when the fighting nations agree on their relative strength.”
  — Justin Vogt quoting Geoffrey Blainey (02:05)
• “Their ability to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz… really shifted the burden to the United States to try to find an off ramp.”
  — Suzanne Maloney (04:24)
• “There’s almost no hope of negotiating anything that looks like the JCPOA… I think even [agreeing to principles] will be a very high bar.”
  — Suzanne Maloney (15:17)
• “What we’re seeing now… is going to be one in which Khamenei’s project is brought to fruition, in which the military takes the upper hand.”
  — Suzanne Maloney (24:20)
• “If one has to point to the side that has lost the most as a result of this conflict, I think it is the Iranian people, the cause of democracy in Iran, and it is why the decision to undertake this war was so deeply misguided by the Trump administration.”
  — Suzanne Maloney (31:00)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:02] – Opening discussion on war, strength, and miscalculation
• [06:00] – Deterrence value of the Strait of Hormuz versus nuclear program
• [08:01] – Who’s ruling Iran now? Challenges of command amid leadership losses
• [11:16] – Does the cease-fire favor Iran? Strategic gains and implications
• [12:51] – How the war leaves Iran weakened, despite apparent leverage
• [15:17] – Realistic prospects (or lack thereof) for a lasting diplomatic agreement
• [18:01] – Global response: China, Russia, and India’s shifting patience
• [21:23] – Explaining the “Third Islamic Republic” and regime evolution
• [25:06] – Israel’s distinct objectives, U.S.–Israeli divergence, Lebanon issue
• [29:18] – Effects on the Iranian public, regime legitimacy after conflict

Conclusion

The episode provides a rich, nuanced assessment of the new and uneasy status quo resulting from the U.S.–Iran cease-fire. Suzanne Maloney underscores Iran’s surprising institutional resilience and new-found leverage, the limits of U.S. (and Israeli) objectives, and the heavy cost borne by the Iranian citizenry. Despite temporary calm, unresolved core issues and disparate regional interests suggest that peace remains fragile—with both strategic and humanitarian consequences at stake.