The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode Title: Will the War in Gaza Really End?
Date: October 15, 2025
Host: Justin Vogt (stepping in for Daniel Kurtz-Phelan)
Guests:

• Shira Efron (RAND Corporation, Israel Policy Chair)
• Khaled Elgindi (Georgetown University, former Palestinian negotiator)
• Daniel Shapiro (Atlantic Council, Obama-era U.S. Ambassador to Israel, and recent Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense)

Overview

This episode examines the fragile ceasefire in Gaza following the implementation of phase one of Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan. With all surviving Israeli hostages home and many Palestinian prisoners released, both Israeli and Palestinian societies face a tentative peace, overshadowed by unresolved fundamental issues. The conversation explores why the ceasefire took hold, President Trump’s unique role, the unresolved question of Hamas disarmament, shifting U.S.-Israeli relations, American public opinion, and the long-term prospects for peace or renewed conflict.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

Opening Context: The Ceasefire and Its Limits

• Situation on the Ground: Ceasefire is tentatively holding, Israeli troops have pulled back within Gaza, and humanitarian aid has started flowing. However, "most of Gaza is in ruins, and many Palestinians fear that the ceasefire will only be a pause before a resumption of the conflict." (03:14)
• Unanswered Questions: Unclear who will govern Gaza, how security will be managed, and whether Hamas will actually disarm.

Predictions: Will War Resume Within a Year?

[05:00–06:12]

• All guests predict a less than 50% chance of renewed war between Hamas and Israel within the next year, but with notable hesitation and qualifications.
• Their reasoning centers overwhelmingly on the "Trump factor"—meaning President Trump’s direct, unconventional involvement and his leverage over both Israeli and Arab leaders.

Notable Quotes:

• Shira Efron: "I think it's less than 50% within the next year." (05:09)
• Khaled Elgindi: "It's less than 50%, but only slightly." (05:25)
• Dan Shapiro: "It's less than 50% of returning to a war. Anything like what we've seen for the last two years." (05:33)

Why the Ceasefire Is Likely to Hold—For Now

The Trump Factor
[06:12–09:41]

• Trump’s Directness: He forced the issue in ways previous presidents avoided, including issuing blunt public instructions to Israel.
• Israeli Public’s War Weariness: Israelis largely justified the fighting by the desire to release hostages. With that motive gone, public appetite for more war has dissipated.

Notable Quote:

• Efron: "The Israeli public... is against the war. There is no real justification for people to continue serving beyond 700 days of war and risking their lives for a goal that they see now is still rather elusive." (06:12)

Arab States’ Influence

• Trump’s pivot was partly motivated by pressure from Arab states, especially after the Israeli strike in Doha.
• Elgindi: "The ceasefire will hold for as long as Donald Trump wants it to. Right now, it serves his interests, but it may not do that indefinitely." (09:17)

How Did Trump Pressure Israel?

[12:44–17:48]

• Not through classic “sticks” but through public, campaign-like pressure and offering “carrots” (positive inducements and support).
• Netanyahu’s political identity is closely tied to Trump, who didn’t have to threaten—his wishes became implicit commands because of potential electoral consequences.

Notable Quotes:

• Shapiro: "It was enough to be concerned about public criticism about essentially an instruction... President Trump... has just issued an instruction to Israel to cease its fire. And Israel, of course, followed up." (13:24)
• Efron: "It's basically coercion through love, if you want." (17:17)
• Elgindi: "[Trump] was saying, look, I need you and you need me, but I think you need me more than I need you. And he simply bypassed [Netanyahu] by getting out ahead of him and saying, here's what it is, here's the plan." (17:48)

Can Hamas Disarm? What Will Happen to Their Forces?

[20:08–28:05]

• Hamas’s Future: Likely to take time to regroup and may become more pragmatic, but total disarmament is unlikely; Palestinians see disarmament without Israeli withdrawal as making them vulnerable.
• Comparisons to Irish Peace Process: Disarmament and reintegration in similar conflicts took decades.
• Everything Tied to Disarmament: No reconstruction funds, no international stabilization force, and no return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza—unless Hamas is reliably disarmed.

Notable Quotes:

• Elgindi: "It would be stupid for Palestinians to agree to completely disarm, but that doesn't mean that there isn't some middle ground somewhere... But... a population... helpless... in the face of a highly predatory occupier like Israel, I think that's a very tall order." (22:58)
• Efron: "The question of disarmament of Hamas is really key and the sequence by which this happens or doesn't happen... So this is a very, very, very complex question and I think it's going to be one of the thorniest going forward." (23:20)
• Shapiro: "None of those things will happen unless Hamas is reliably disarmed. As long as they hold the guns and hold the power in Gaza, I don't see most of that getting off the ground." (24:58)

The Israeli Political Lens: Netanyahu’s Strategic Defeat?

[29:49–32:44]

• Efron’s Thesis: The deal "represents a defeat of Netanyahu's government's messianic vision": no total victory, no destruction or expulsion of Hamas, and no mass removal of Palestinians from Gaza.
• Government must "spin this as a victory," but by the coalition’s previously stated objectives, it is not.

Notable Quote:

• Efron: "Netanyahu has to spin this and say, this is everything we wanted, but in fact, it's definitely not what his coalition vowed to achieve." (32:39)

• Elgindi’s Rebuttal: Politically and physically, Gaza may no longer be habitable due to extensive destruction; the “voluntary” migration the government talked up is a “euphemism.” (32:45)

U.S.–Israel Relations, Regional Geopolitics, and Diverging Interests

[33:52–36:55]

• Strategic Alignment: Still strong in terms of confronting common regional threats—Iran, Hezbollah, etc.—but political and strategic interests are diverging, especially over the Palestinian question.
• Need for U.S. Leverage: The U.S. can and should “use the leverage we have... to try to change Israeli policies that we think should change.” (36:41)

Shifting American Public Opinion

[36:55–44:33]

• Polls Show Change: American sympathy for Israel has eroded dramatically since 2023, aligning (for the first time) with sympathy for Palestinians.
• Politicization: Younger generations, and Democratic voters especially, are moving away from automatic pro-Israel sentiment.
• Implications: The U.S.–Israel relationship is at risk of becoming a partisan issue, which jeopardizes Israel’s long-standing diplomatic support.

Notable Quotes:

• Shapiro: "One of the things that's important to bear in mind... is what would be the impact on US Interests and US Influence in the region if we were to see that partnership really go through a major decline. And I think it would cost us very dearly..." (39:36)
• Efron: "For Netanyahu... he really views... the international community as stretching between 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and Washington D.C. to Capitol Hill. That's it. That's all they have. And so I think this is a very limiting factor." (42:25)
• Elgindi: "There will have to be accountability. We cannot simply pretend that the last two years didn't happen or that it was somehow normal to watch an entire society be completely erased, to watch starvation being used as a weapon consistently from day one. That's not normal, and that cannot be normalized." (47:00) [Also quoted in the intro and closing]

Accountability and Trauma: Lasting Consequences

[47:00–55:15]

• The Need for Accountability: Without justice, enduring trauma will create new cycles of violence. International mechanisms like the International Criminal Court are now in play: Israel’s leadership faces war crimes charges.
• Comparisons to Other Conflicts: Chechnya analogy is debated; Elgindi argues that the Israel–Palestine conflict’s depth and long memory make “ending” the problem through force impossible.
• Collective Trauma: Both societies are “cursed” to live side by side. Societal trauma from October 7 and the war will endure for generations; only acknowledgment and real reckoning can allow for healing and reconciliation.

Notable Quotes:

• Elgindi: "The trauma that has been created in Gaza and for Palestinians across the board will last for generations. Not years, but for generations." (47:54)
• Shapiro: "It started with the devastating October 7th attacks, terrorist attacks. It became a war that fought, followed, and I don't equate the two. But the suffering is enormous. The suffering is real, the trauma is real, and I agree with Khalid, it will have long lasting effects." (52:38)
• Efron: "...for both, if we don't turn this horrible, horrible, horrible tragedy into a diplomatic initiative that benefits both sides... this is going to be a huge, huge failure." (55:15)

Memorable Moments and Quotes

• “Coercion through love, if you want.” – Efron on Trump’s approach to Netanyahu (17:17)
• “There will have to be accountability. We cannot simply pretend that the last two years didn't happen… to watch starvation being used as a weapon consistently from day one. That's not normal, and that cannot be normalized.” – Elgindi (47:00)
• "It's basically coercion through love..." – Efron, on Trump-Netanyahu dynamic (17:17)
• "The ceasefire will hold for as long as Donald Trump wants it to." – Elgindi on U.S. influence (09:17)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:14 – State of the ceasefire and open questions about Gaza’s future
• 05:00–06:12 – Guests’ predictions on war resuming
• 06:12–09:41 – Why the ceasefire is holding: Trump and regional dynamics
• 12:44–17:48 – How Trump influenced/is influencing Netanyahu and policy
• 20:08–28:05 – Disarmament debate: logistics, politics, and precedent
• 29:49–32:44 – Israeli politics: Netanyahu’s coalition and defeat of its maximalist vision
• 33:52–36:55 – U.S.-Israel interests and regional context
• 36:55–44:33 – American public opinion and its impact
• 47:00–55:15 – The need for accountability, trauma, and future prospects
• 58:18 – Host closing reflection on optimism vs. pessimism

Conclusion: Fragile Optimism and Enduring Obstacles

While all three panelists see a slightly better-than-even chance that the ceasefire will last in the near-term—largely due to U.S. leverage and regional exhaustion—the conversation repeatedly circles back to the underlying and unresolved issues: Hamas's future, Israeli and Palestinian trauma, lack of accountability, Palestinian self-determination, and shifting geopolitical and public opinion trends. The skepticism of a true, lasting peace pervades, even as all acknowledge the immense suffering—and the possibility, however faint, of change.