Podcast Summary: The Foreign Affairs Interview

Episode Title: Xi Jinping’s World of Treachery and Sacrifice
Date: November 6, 2025
Host: Daniel Kurtz-Phelan
Guest: Orville Schell

Overview

In this episode, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan interviews Orville Schell—one of America’s preeminent China-watchers—about the evolution of big leader politics, the shifting dynamics between the US and China, and the complicated figure of Xi Jinping. Using both historical and personal insights, Schell explores foundational shifts in global power, how formative trauma shapes leaders, and why understanding the personalities at the heart of today’s rivalries is crucial for grasping what comes next.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Era of “Big Leader” Politics (00:05–01:00)

• Schell notes a global trend toward dominant, personality-driven leaders (Putin, Xi, Trump, Kim Jong Un, Modi).
• The central thesis: “We are in an era of big leader culture… We're in a different political world where these big leaders are what we need to understand better.” (B, 00:05)

2. The Trump-Xi Dynamic & US-China Paradigm Shift (02:18–05:42)

• Recent Trump-Xi summit brought a symbolic break in trade war but failed to resolve fundamental rivalry.
• China's shift: Once needing to offer concessions, now “almost everyone ends up genuflecting to Trump, except Xi Jinping.”
• China has achieved leverage it lacked since the Opium Wars, especially via critical minerals.
• Quote: “This is definitely something new where China has enough cards to really play the retaliatory game well.” (B, 04:23)

3. Critical Minerals & Mutual Dependence (06:01–08:49)

• China’s use of rare earths as leverage dates back to the 2010 dispute with Japan—but US response lagged.
• Both sides now recognize their vulnerabilities and leverage in supply chains and technology.
• Quote: “What's fair for the goose might be fair for the gander... China began cataloging the things it had... what choke points does China have and what choke points do we still have?” (B, 07:42)

4. Trump’s Foreign Policy Instincts: The Madman Theory (09:07–12:44)

• Trump’s unpredictability unsettles both allies and adversaries, reminiscent (in manner if not ideology) of Mao’s approach to power.
• Schell suggests Trump’s “madman theory” actually carries strategic value.
• Quote: “His unpredictable nature is reminiscent of Chairman Mao. You don’t quite know what he’s going to do. It's almost the madman theory of geopolitics.” (B, 10:34)
• Xi, by contrast, is highly disciplined, projecting consistency and caution.

5. Xi Jinping’s Worldview and Approach (12:44–16:32)

• Xi is not Maoist in style—he seeks order, not mass political upheaval.
• Schell: Xi believes “there is a fundamentally antagonistic relationship” between the Party and Western powers.
• Despite US retrenchment, China’s efforts to build alternative international networks (Belt and Road, SCO, BRICS) are methodical but face cultural and political limitations, especially with places like Southeast Asia and Europe.

6. China’s Commitment to Putin and Global Positioning (18:02–19:29)

• China and North Korea will not abandon Putin; European efforts to decouple from China are hampered by deep economic ties.
• Rare earths, energy, and technology remain crucial to this “age of decoupling.”
• Quote: “The Ukraine war is a big impediment now between Europe and China... but it's very hard for them to decouple.” (B, 18:29)

7. The Problem of Understanding Xi Jinping (19:29–23:42)

• Xi remains enigmatic: “Few leaders whose body language and facial expressions reveal so little about what's going on inside their heads…”
• Xi learned reticence and self-control during the Cultural Revolution (his father was purged and tortured)—resulting in his tightly controlled style.
• Memorable anecdote: When meeting Biden, Xi “was not buying any of that. He was just not going to go there.” (B, 23:51)

8. Leadership Formation and Authoritarian Discipline (25:53–29:33)

• Xi absorbed party loyalty and the “Maoist lexicon” from his father's suffering, leading to a worldview where Party interests override all.
• This undergirds Xi’s suspicion of the West and uncompromising attitude.
• Quote: “He's going to embrace the past... retain the presumptions of the past towards the outside world...” (B, 26:27)

9. Personal Trauma, Insecurity, and Political Calculus (29:33–32:30)

• Both Trump and Xi were marked in youth by rejection from their own elites.
• Schell posits that Xi’s insecurities shape his unwillingness to concede or appear weak, while also noting Xi can correct course in a crisis.
• Deep leader insecurities make for a volatile strategic mix.

10. The Puzzle of Taiwan and Chinese Ambition (35:26–38:33)

• Xi regards unification with Taiwan as essential to his legacy—a matter of face and historic mission.
• Despite historical willingness to “kick the can,” Xi’s pride may make a measured approach less likely.
• Anticipation of “gray zone” tactics rather than outright invasion.

11. The “Face” Problem and China's National Narrative (40:20–42:05)

• The legacy of humiliation endures, perpetuating a powerful victim culture: “They still haven’t been able to drop the narrative of failure and humiliation... This plays into whatever this category of face is all about.”
• Western policymakers often underestimate the depth of feeling in this dynamic.

12. The Rise, Promise, and Limits of Engagement (42:05–45:47)

• Schell reflects on decades of engagement, which he believes was correct and productive—if ultimately limited by China’s Leninist system.
• The Tiananmen massacre (1989) marked a turning point; engagement returned fitfully but with less promise.
• Quote: “Engagement was the right thing to try... If there's any way for that state to morph into something less antagonistic... that would be a great victory.” (B, 42:56)

13. China’s Democratic Tradition & Internal Diversity (46:00–49:50)

• Despite the Party’s tight control, Chinese civil life has deep wells of debate and democratic thought, though these are less visible now.
• The legacy of Republican and cosmopolitan China persists—seen vividly in Taiwan.
• Suppression does not erase these tendencies; they persist under the surface.

14. Worrying Parallels and Lessons from History (52:17–54:42)

• Less American interaction with Chinese society risks repeating 20th-century errors of misunderstanding.
• Leadership matters: decisions are shaped as much by personal quirks and traumas as by systemic forces.

15. The Possibility—and Limits—of Change (54:42–56:24)

• Xi could, in theory, be remembered as a non-tragic leader who transcended insecurity and antagonism—but it would require a monumental change in approach.
• Quote: “He would be the greatest leader on earth... the non-tragic leader who overcame his tragic flaws and positioned China to be a leader in the world with whom everybody could feel comfortable.” (B, 55:10)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Big Leader Culture:
  (B, 00:05) “We are in an era of big leader culture... so is the personalities, the nature of each of these leaders.”

• On Trump’s unpredictability:
  (B, 10:34) “His unpredictable nature is reminiscent of Chairman Mao… It’s almost the madman theory of geopolitics.”

• On Xi’s formative trauma:
  (B, 26:27) “No matter what the party has done... you don't believe it. And his father, even though he was literally crucified for 16 years… he didn’t leave the party. And I think Xi Jinping has absorbed that kind of discipline, devotion, and loyalty to the party.”

• On the persistence of Chinese pluralism:
  (B, 46:47) “History exists and exerts a kind of field of gravity even after it passes... China does... have a deep and abiding fund of... democratic tradition that it can draw on.”

• On China’s face and national humiliation:
  (B, 40:39) “They still have not been able to drop the narrative of failure and humiliation. It’s a kind of a paradoxical thing...”

• On the risk of conflict:
  (B, 45:54) “It's hard to imagine how a real crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea would play out with the current set of leaders... we might end up in a terrible conflagration, or [Trump] might just give it away.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Big Leader Culture: 00:05–01:00
• Trump-Xi Summit and Shift in Dynamics: 02:18–05:42
• Critical Minerals as Leverage: 06:01–08:49
• Trump’s Madman Theory, Xi’s Predictability: 09:07–16:32
• China’s Global Position, Putin, and Allies: 18:02–19:29
• Understanding Xi Jinping: 19:29–23:42
• Personal Histories, Trauma, and Insecurity: 25:53–32:30
• The Taiwan Question: 35:26–38:33
• Narrative of Humiliation and Face: 40:20–42:05
• Retrospective on Engagement Policy: 42:05–45:47
• China’s Democratic Legacy: 46:00–49:50
• The Risk of Renewed Misunderstanding: 52:17–54:42
• Hopes for Future Change: 54:42–56:24

Tone and Language

The conversation is reflective, incisive, and often personal—with Schell interweaving historical perspective, lived anecdote, and literary allusion. He urges listeners to see the interplay of personality, historical trauma, and systemic constraints in understanding leaders like Xi Jinping.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode offers a nuanced exploration of big-power rivalry, focusing on how the personal histories and psychological makeup of leaders like Trump and Xi affect global affairs. Schell argues that to grasp where US–China relations are headed, we need to look beyond policy to formative trauma, questions of humiliation and pride, and the enduring but submerged tendencies within both countries that can drive surprise and, perhaps, reconciliation.