Most leaders think they're good at making decisions. The data says almost none of us are — and we can't even explain how we do it. In this episode of The Free Lunch, Eddie Ross sits down with Ernesto Weissmann, founding partner and Managing Partner for Europe at Tandem, one of the world's few consulting firms built entirely around decision-making, decision analysis and decision intelligence.

A former decision theory professor at the University of Buenos Aires, Ernesto has spent his whole career on one deceptively simple question: if decision-making determines our results, our companies and even our happiness, why does no one teach us how to do it well? We get into why companies are really just "factories that make decisions," why you should judge the process and never the outcome, and how the smartest organizations are already handing parts of that process over to AI.

A masterclass for any founder or leader who wants to stop deciding on gut feel and start deciding on purpose.

Chapters
00:00 – Cold open: is AI a friend or a foe?
04:30 – Welcome back: meet Ernesto & Tandem
06:50 – From decision theory to quitting his job to build a firm
10:30 – Why so many people make poor decisions
11:40 – Quality vs. quantity: the case for decision agility
13:00 – Decision architecture: why most companies aren't built to decide well
17:17 – Designing organizations by capability
18:00 – Decisions are power: change, politics & the "better-than-average" bias
21:00 – Judge the process, not the outcome
22:33 – High-impact decisions (and what oil & gas taught Tandem)
28:25 – The hidden cost of the decisions you don't make
30:19 – Why behavior follows objectives and compensation
31:17 – The "everything's green" culture problem
32:51 – Quick, good, or cheap — and the trap of paralysis by analysis
39:59 – The one-page brief: a lesson from Saatchi & Saatchi
41:48 – The Decision Leaders series: how CEOs, musicians and athletes decide
44:58 – From gripping the wheel to letting the machine drive
46:32 – Automated, augmented & assisted decisions (Unilever & Waze)
50:11 – Will AI quietly erode the power of the boss?
53:10 – Game theory when every competitor uses AI
55:43 – The human element machines can't replicate
56:53 – 1,000 AI agents and the future of scenario planning
1:01:08 – Ernesto's advice for founders in the growth phase
1:03:06 – "If you're not using AI, you're leaving money on the table"
1:04:00 – Friend or foe? Ernesto's final verdict

About the guest
Ernesto Weissmann is a founding partner of Tandem, a strategic consulting firm specializing in decision management that has worked with leading companies across Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia. Argentine-born and now based in Madrid, he's a former professor of decision theory at the University of Buenos Aires.

About The Free Lunch
The Free Lunch is a podcast about leadership and the people who do it well — hosted by Eddie Ross. New conversations with founders, operators and experts who've learned how to lead.

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