In this episode of The Freight Debate, host Phil Hennessy is joined once again by Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, to explore the latest developments reshaping global supply chains. The focus is squarely on the impact of tariffs on freight rates and the implications of the Ships for America Act.

The impact of tariffs on freight rates is not only disrupting carrier behavior but also forcing shippers into new, creative logistics strategies in an increasingly complex regulatory landscape. Phil and Emily dive into the “suspiciously quiet” state of spot rates despite a significant drop in Chinese export volumes—why aren’t freight rates falling faster?

The answer, it turns out, lies in strategic blank sailings, capacity management, and learned lessons from the early days of the pandemic. Listeners will learn how shipping alliances like Ocean Alliance and Gemini Corporation are deploying different strategies to maintain freight stability and avoid rate crashes.

The discussion moves into U.S. tariffs and their unpredictable effects. From anecdotal reports of 30% volume drops out of China to real-world examples of shippers losing $250,000 in tariffs due to delayed containers, the impact of tariffs on freight rates is vividly illustrated. Emily and Phil explain how some shippers are rerouting freight through Vancouver or using bonded warehouses in the U.S. to delay customs clearance in anticipation of potential tariff changes.

The second half of the episode turns toward the controversial Ships for America Act, which imposes new port fees and mandates percentages of imports from China be carried on U.S.-flagged ships. This regulatory burden could compound the complexity already faced by shippers managing tariffs, freight costs, and delivery timelines. Emily breaks down the practical realities of sourcing U.S.-built ships, the rising cost implications, and the administrative chaos it might unleash.

If you're a supply chain manager, freight analyst, or shipper trying to make sense of tariffs, blank sailings, and policy shifts, this episode is essential listening. Phil and Emily blend real-time data with sharp insights, helping you stay ahead of a volatile market. Whether you're navigating the next freight contract or simply trying to understand how policy impacts port operations, The Freight Debate brings clarity to chaos.

Don’t miss this in-depth conversation with two of the sharpest minds in logistics.

00:00 Intro & Overview
00:45 Tariffs' Surprising Impact on Freight Rates
02:00 Blank Sailings Strategy Explained
03:30 Historical Context: Pandemic Playbook Returns
05:00 U.S.-China Stimulus Divergence
06:00 Carrier Alliances' Role in Capacity Management
08:00 Schedule Reliability vs. Real Delivery
09:00 Real Shipper Example: $250k Tariff Loss
10:00 Idle Fleet & Ship Redeployment
12:00 Speculation on Tariff Reductions
13:00 Foreign Trade Zones & Customs Strategy
15:00 Shippers Betting on Policy Reversal
16:30 Christmas Goods & Political Pressure
18:00 Impact of 10% Tariffs Often Overlooked
20:00 Spot Rate Forecast: More Drops Ahead?
21:30 Topic Shift: The Ships for America Act
22:00 US-Built Vessel Mandates
24:00 Carrier Strategies for Compliance
26:00 Port Fee Additions: Order Book Implications
28:00 Foreign Yards of Concern Definition
29:30 CMA’s Dilemma: Paying Both Fees
30:45 Cynical Take on Repackaged Regulations
32:00 Shipper Advice: Start Planning Now
33:30 Complexity of Multi-Layered Surcharges
35:00 Wrap-Up & Teaser: Will There Be Good News Next Time?