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Everything Electric Podcast
Don't Mention The War! BYD Kills Off Combustion? Trade Body Trauma?
00:44:16
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- [00:00]
Robert Llewellyn
Foreign. And welcome to another episode of Pulse. Now, I just want to reassure you, you know, you get a huge disappointment with the fact that instead of Imogen being here, it's me, some old bloke. So I want to reassure you that the conversation will be wonderful and fascinating and. And we've got some great topics to discuss today and imagine will be back shortly. So this is not a permanent rearrangement. She's. She's in Japan at the moment, which is lovely.
- [00:37]
Dan
Land of the charging hybrid.
- [00:39]
Robert Llewellyn
The land. Thank you, Dan, for getting that one in so quickly. The land of the self charging hybrid. It's possibly now the land of the setting self charging hybrid because they are now bringing out some new pure electric. Anyway, leave that there as it may be. Dan, how are you getting on?
- [00:59]
Dan
I'm good, yeah. Sorry, I couldn't resist that. You mentioned Japan and that was a Jap. A place I've never been to and a place I would absolutely love to.
- [01:07]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh, it's amazing. Yeah. Yeah.
- [01:09]
Dan
I would be looking at the cards, I think, and talking to people.
- [01:11]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [01:12]
Dan
And really annoying them. But no, I'm very well, thank you. I'm not in Japan. In the Home Counties, hard at work trying to understand what's going on in electric vehicle market.
- [01:24]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [01:24]
Dan
And it's just a slew of data, some of it misinterpreted, some of it concerning, some of it positive. But it's never dull, is it?
- [01:34]
Robert Llewellyn
It's never dull, no, no, it isn't, no, no, no, it's very exciting. Well, I mean, I say exciting, it's very challenging, I think is probably more appropriate because, you know, there's some quite desperate things happening around the world. This episode is brought to you by Hankook. The Hankook ion tyre is built exclusively for electric vehicles, engineered to deliver what EV drivers need most confident grip, quietness, energy efficiency and long mileage. As the official tyre partner of Formula E, HongKook proves its EV technology is at the highest level of performance and brings that same innovation to every ion tyre on the road. I mean, we may as well start with the massive, heavily armed elephant in the room, which is. I love that just a title on our notes was don't mention the war, which is going to be more, you know, recognizable to people of a certain age. So it was certainly. It was a line in faulty towers that I. That's where I remember it. But also my dad said it always before Fawlty Towers.
- [02:37]
Dan
Yes, it was that era. I do remember. Maybe I remember the repeats, but I do remember that. And I do remember dad's army as well. Well. And yeah, we lived in the shadow of sort of conflict for many years of World War II was a, something that dominated discussions and then later the Cold War. And it seems incredible to me now in the 2000s that we have entered an era of conflict again because I'm not just what's going on in the Middle East, I'm talking about what started in Ukraine. In Ukraine and has sort of spread around the world and you know, the old sort of rules based world order, as they say, is crumbling. It's under kind of gone, isn't it? Yeah. So that's pretty sad to, to see. But obviously this story, don't mention the war is more about what's happening in the Straits of Hormuz at the moment. Yeah. And what that will do to the prices of oil and gas and it's going to have a huge, huge impact on that market as we know. And the costs of those fossil fuels which are already volatile but are become less and less economic over time. And that does give an advantage to electrification in general and to battery EVs specifically. And what I've seen this week is as the world comes to terms with the enormity of this war that's sort of setting off, it's like a, you know, a series of explosions and attacks. It is of course devastating and it is of course tragic. But I've seen a lot of people say actually, well, we shouldn't mention this. If we support evs, actually, you know, EV are going to benefit. But I've seen lots of people saying, well, we shouldn't make capital on the crisis that's coming around. But yeah, honestly, you know, oil and gas is, they are conflicts, they are conflict materials. You know, they have been for ever
- [04:41]
Robert Llewellyn
since they were discovered, decades.
- [04:43]
Dan
And if you track back to the 1950s and the discovery of oil in the Middle east, it has bought them huge bounty, but it's bought them huge problems as well. It's an extremely volatile part of the world and now we're seeing that play out and I think you can't help but mention it. And, but no one's, you know, profiting from the tragedies that's unfolding. No, but it does mean the inevitable that electrification, electricity is going to become more and more economic. You could generate it through solar, through wind, etc. All of our audience know this, I'm sure.
- [05:16]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
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Dan
But I don't think we have anything to apologize by drawing attention to the fact that this is a changing market. Dynamic that he's unlikely to get any better in the favor of oil and gas and is only likely to get better in the favor of electricity and more efficient technologies. So it's, it's extraordinary moment when no one really knows, not even the, the Commander in chief of the, of the USA knows how it's going to, to play out. Yeah, yeah. Huge, huge disruption yet again in Western economies that are already struggling economically. So the reality is if you were looking to buy an electric vehicle, it's
- [06:02]
Robert Llewellyn
not a bad time to do it.
- [06:02]
Dan
Well, it's getting better, the equation's getting better and better and more and more compelling. Right. They're already cheaper across the total cost of ownership. So it is really fascinating. So this story really comes about. We saw a friend of the channels, Colin Walker, he works for the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and he posted some quick analysis they'd done on what the unpredictability in the Middle east could mean for the cost of oil per barrel and then what ultimately would mean for petrol. You know, it could quite significantly increase the cost of fuel at the pumps. Surprise there. But the reality is if you want to inoculate yourself from that, then battery EVs charged at home overnight are a particularly good way to do so.
- [06:51]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, I mean, I think this is something I discussed yesterday with Dave borlace and Uran McTurk on a podcast. Was that the. Oh God, yeah. That reminded me of exactly what I'm now going to admit to the audience, that I did turn 70 this week and that maybe, maybe it's kicked in faster than I, than I thought. Well, it's good that there was a
- [07:17]
Dan
reason I can do the self charging joke again and you want to remember it.
- [07:22]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, I think it's totally original. I've never heard it before. We're all, we're, we're going to be, you know, it doesn't matter if you've only got electric cars and solar panels and batteries, you're still going to be affected by this because it affects everything. It affects the price of food, it affects all our industries at the moment. You know, we are very, very reliant on fossil fuel, apart from, you know, individually. Our transport needs may not be dependent on it, but it's going to affect the price of a bag of potatoes in the supermarket because they're moved by on a truck that's still using diesel, unless it's a Waitrose one that's electric. They do have some.
- [08:00]
Dan
I mean, you're right, the ramifications are colossal and you can Inoculate against some of those costs, but not all of them. But that increases the need to make sure that your own personal transportation is more economic. You're right. I mean I don't know about anyone else right now, but when I go to the local supermarket and pick up a few things, I, I, you know, I'm not, I'm not, I wouldn't care say I was a stingy individual, but I do sort of like tut and wheeze now at the, at the unmar unmanned exit, you know. Yeah. And when I'm buying things because it is, it is noticeable how expensive everything is and unfortunately the that is is set to continue. So yeah, yeah, the war is extremely unfortunate but the ramifications hadn't really been factored factored out yet. We just don't know other than it could be net bad and we have to see how that plays out. By the time this podcast gets released, it could be over or it could
- [09:00]
Robert Llewellyn
or could be a lot worse beginning.
- [09:02]
Dan
We don't know. So we will see. But yeah, I would say that if you haven't quite made the a leap away from liquid fuels yet, now's not a bad time to do it. A nice cheap used EV would go along a 2.
- [09:16]
Robert Llewellyn
There's some brilliant bargains I keep getting, I keep getting really miffed because of, you know, being a very early adopter. The amount of young people I'm meeting now who've bought a secondhand EV and I go, that's not fair. How come you got that for, you know, £8,000, really good car with 280 mile range in really good nick. You know, it looks new to me. It's just, you know, it's very unfair. God.
- [09:39]
Dan
Yeah. I mean that's the, that's the reality, isn't it? We've been part of that early cohort. We've been, yeah, through leasing, not through buying cars outright but through leasing have been kind of, you know, starting to turn the, the wheel on buying EVs. But yeah, for everyone now, for, for anyone who's educated on the subject and isn't being willfully misled by the media, you actually put the numbers together. You know, I could buy used Ev for £10,000 and then I could, you know, thousands of pounds on, on running costs. If you're fortunate enough to be able to charge at home on overnight tariff. I mean that is a complete no brainer. In fact, I go so far as to say, as anyone who has done the numbers and isn't switching to battery EV now Is. Yes. Is being a bit of a low wattage individual. I'll leave it there. I try and be euphemistic about it, but there are certain group of people, people who buy used cars and to driveway. That's a huge group of people, by the way. Huge.
- [10:33]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes.
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Dan
Not buying an EV now are literally throwing thousands of pounds away.
- [10:42]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, this is. It's helped me remember what I was going to say, which was, you know, that the argument, which is very valid and very important and needs, you know, it's a big challenge which is to, you know, how to facilitate charging for the. For 40 ish. It depends who you are. 38 to 40% of households in the UK that don't have anywhere off street to park. But the point is, and this was a Yan comment was it's about 7% of the 60% of people who can park their car off the street have electric cars now. It's quite, you know, it's, it's a noticeable number but it's still only 70%. Therefore there's a massive number. There's literally millions of people who would not only benefit themselves but they benefit this country because we'd have to import less fossil fuel because we wouldn't be burning it in cars, we'd be using it to make plastics and fertilizers and petrochemical, you know, all the other stuff. So, you know, it's not like we're never going to need it or certainly not for many, many years, but if we burnt, say, you know, a billion barrels a year less, that would make a difference to our economy because that money has to go somewhere, it's going to get used, it's going to start circulating within the economy, employing people here, blah, blah, blah. There are arguments, we know very well. But what is also interesting, which Dave Ball mentioned and we discussed a lot, was the number of inquiries that car companies and leasing companies and everybody in the car sector are getting now. You know, it's this massive increase in interest suddenly in electric cars. You know, that's. Which is, you know, it's. It was in the Times, I think today there was a sort of mention of it.
- [12:19]
Dan
Well, there's a kind of obvious. There's a huge percentage of the population, Robert, that just doesn't know that to. Yeah. You know, to use an overnight tariff and charge an electric vehicle is several, many, many times cheaper than filling up.
- [12:31]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [12:32]
Dan
At your local petrol station. They don't know that. And I will not rest, Robert, until everyone knows that. Whether it takes me 10 years or 15 years or 20 years. The reality is it's, it's a huge opportunity. So yes, we can expect Auto trader and car wow and other car trading websites to see more and more interest in, in back EVs and, and when people get in them, as we know, hardly anyone ever goes back because they are actually so good. You know, so when they say don't mention the war, we're in a bigger, wider ideological war. We could argue how much of all of this disruption is down to the fact that the old ways are dying and the new ways are being born. And actually energy is a central part of that and the world is becoming more unstable as a result of this transition, which of course is magic, but it's part of a process that will hopefully lead us to a better place as long as it doesn't empower the populists and the fascists anymore. The reality is that we're moving through a difficult time and people who tell the truth and say how cheap these things are are the people who need to be out there doing that on a regular, a regular basis. So it's impossible not to mention the war. We're part of a, an extraordinary period in history that people will look back on and read about if of course, are alive in 50 years, AI, etc. But you know, on the assumption that we are, this is an incredible, incredible moment in time. So, yes, we do have to mention the war, I'm afraid. And we do have to say, actually EVs are becoming even more compelling. But it doesn't mean we don't feel incredible sympathy for the people who are caught in the Costco.
- [14:11]
Robert Llewellyn
It's appalling. I mean, it's also, you know, it has to be, I think, I can't help mentioning it, the, the country with the biggest reserves of oil and gas, Venezuela. The country with the second biggest reserves of oil and gas, Iran. Oh, oh, that's, it's just coincidence that, that the USA have effectively, you know, started a war or invaded both of those places. They've got what they wanted. With Iran it took 10, with Venezuela took 10 minutes. It ain't going to take 10 minutes. With Iran, they're going to, they're going to be doing a lot of bad stuff. Because that's the trouble with this. When you're in, you know, when you're confronted with a conflict like this and you say what America is doing is insane. It's, you know, and then people go, well, oh, you support the Iranian regime? No, the Iranian regime is run by a load of bronz age. Tragic nutters. Vile, vicious, criminal, violent, horrible people. I don't support the Iranian regime at all. Never have, never will. You know. But that doesn't mean that. What it doesn't mean is if you bomb those people, it stops. They stop being like that. They'll be like that even more.
- [15:19]
Dan
No. And the Iranian people. There's over 90 billion Iranian people.
- [15:23]
Robert Llewellyn
Amazing. The nicest people I've ever met in the world.
- [15:26]
Dan
Innocence. Right. So. But it does feel like a pretext for war.
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Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
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Dan
That, you know, there might be nuclear capabilities and we have. If only there was some other example of a present past that we could point to. But anyway, maybe we should. We should reverse out of this argument into this.
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Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, I know. Yeah. Yes. Just. Let's just say WMD was a. Was a three letter acronym. We heard an enormous amount of times with Mr. Blair. Prime Minister Blair.
- [16:00]
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- [16:08]
Dan
We get it.
- [16:09]
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- [16:32]
Dan
Our second story is BYD Kills Combustion Quest.
- [16:36]
Robert Llewellyn
Sorry, that was just scrolling down to make sure I've got that there in front of me. You know, this is extraordinary. Well, I mean I think we should big ourselves up because our fabulous China correspondent Elliot Richards was there at the launch which is so exciting on our. On the wait because is he now is he everything electric Asia Pacific or is it still fully charged Asia?
- [16:58]
Dan
No, it is everything he's got. And there's another sort of bonus channel that he runs called Everything. Yeah, Asia Pacific. So you get other content on there. And he's regularly filming with us on everything Electric cars as well. It's six years since he started working on the. On the channel. The first video and podcasts were with xpeng.
- [17:18]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes.
- [17:19]
Dan
And yeah, you and I have been talking about China for way before that and the impact it would have.
- [17:24]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [17:25]
Dan
And for some clearly is for some reason certain policymakers, car companies, media commentators have, I was going to say have their heads in the sand, but I've had their head up their asses frankly on this subject. They've been completely blind to it. And now you can't open LinkedIn or open newspaper without seeing about BYD and companies from China. So it is now common property, that story. Every time it comes up, you can see it everywhere. BYD overtook Tesla. That was literally every LinkedIn post for about three weeks running. So it's suddenly become everyone's now an expert with their AI posts. They're all kind of typing in tell me all about byd and then they're copying and pasting that directly into the thing. But we've been talking about this for a very, very long time and you know, we pat ourselves on the back, but maybe the Chinese on the back a bit more because they've been working on this multiple year, multiple decade, five year policy. They've been investing capital patiently over that period of time. They've just announced their new five year plan which is less about electrification, more about integrating AI into every single Chinese economy, which will include factories, by the way, things like dark factories which we make. Yeah, soon on the channel. But Elliot's been an amazing narrator of what's going on in China. So what we saw from BYD was a little bit less of a surprise to us.
- [18:54]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [18:55]
Dan
But it's the logical consequence of years and years of really, really taking this stuff seriously. So for those who are under a rock and have missed it, they had a new sort of disruption day in early March where they announced Blade Battery 2.0 that can offer 621 miles on a single charge. That is WLTP, so that is high
- [19:21]
Robert Llewellyn
compared, you're looking at 550 real world. 550 in the rain on a windy day when it's not very nice weather. You know, well over 500 mile range,
- [19:30]
Dan
but over 600,000 mile lifespan.
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Robert Llewellyn
That's extraordinary.
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Dan
Five minute charge on the flash charges.
- [19:37]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [19:38]
Dan
And, and lower prices and yes, you know, using LFP, which has no cobalt, etc. Etc. So it is an extraordinary leap forward. And I was speaking to Elliot in one of our weekly calls this week. He said it was interesting actually as a launch goes, because there was
- [19:55]
Robert Llewellyn
more
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Dan
about the battery and the charging than about the cars. In fact, their work was there, but they were more like updates rather.
- [20:03]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, there was like a new, new car was there.
- [20:05]
Dan
He said actually the event was a bit more mooted and I always find it interesting because cars are by their very definition shiny and exciting. Interesting and you know, get a lot of, garner a lot of attention. But actually we shouldn't underestimate the underpinnings and the importance of that. And actually when it comes to battery tech and charging tech, I would say that this announcement is going to have far more Impact than any individual car model will have.
- [20:30]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh God, yeah.
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Dan
Far further reaching impact. But a huge moment and a website called the Fast Company, a US based website, obviously quite ahead of their time because they were effectively saying, you know us is messed up, we've missed this. Yeah, this is opportunity. And really sort of said, you know, this is the end of the combustion engine as we know it. And additionally other companies, not just BYD Zika which is part of the Geely Group and I believe Xpeng and a couple of others are creating similarly fast, long lasting cheap technology as well. So it's not just one company, it's a, it's a, it's an assault from a number of different countries around, around the world. There's a number of different companies around the world, many of which are based in Asia. Asia. But it's just an amazing moment that we'll look back upon that. That short pit stop recharge that you get from a petrol station still takes a few minutes, you know, not like it takes no, no time at all but that is going to be blown away by, by this. And obviously what most people don't know, they don't drive an eva. You actually do the bulk of your charging at home anyway.
- [21:48]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah. Or even with a destination charger, you know, while you're at work, while you're at the gym, while you're at the shops, you know you can do those, those chargers I think are very, can I just quickly. It's very quick anecdote because just I really was aware of it. So the xpeng G6 I was driving a couple of weeks ago which is great, I really love that car, it's very nice and that can charge at 400kW so nothing like the speeds that BYD but still by today's standards very fast. And I stopped because I needed to on my way home from, from filming up north and I was desperate gentleman who'd been sitting in a, on a motorway for I think they're 3 1/2 hours non stop driving and I needed to use the facilities so but I, but I saw these chargers and one was available so I drove in, plugged it in, bit my card, it started charging. I ran in, ran because I needed to into the gents and relieve myself. Got a coffee because I thought I'll have a coffee and then I'll, you know, I had about another 60 miles to drive and by the time I got back to that X bang it was at 98, no 96 and it was charging at 110 kilowatts. So it was full by the time I unplugged it. You know, I just went, no, I don't. I needed. I didn't need any. But that changes the whole thing because then you think you're driving a petrol car and you've been driving three hours, you're desperate for a wee. You stop, you probably have a wee first, then you get back in the car, drive it to the garage, stand there, stand there, holding the hose, filling the tank for, you know, what, two or three minutes, then you go into the shop, then you pay. That takes longer than it now takes longer. Charging an electric car is now faster than filling a tank. And anyone who disagrees with that is. Hasn't understood their lives.
- [23:35]
Dan
Well, I think that, you know, for those who are kind of tuning in and think they listen to too old, you know, zealot go, well, maybe you're right, but I think we're a bit more pragmatic than that. But I think what's interesting is that most people inside or outside of the industry know that what Tesla did with the supercharger network. Yeah, absolutely transformative. And obviously with the vehicles as well. That's a given.
- [23:57]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
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Dan
And in this Fast Company article, there's a couple of bits I'd like to read out, I think.
- [24:01]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh, yeah? Yeah.
- [24:02]
Dan
First of all, for the benefit of those who are kind of confused about kilowatts and all those sorts of things, because we do have a habit in the industry of talking in jargonistic terms. Minutes, yeah, are better than, obviously, kilowatts, kilowatt hours, etc. But this I thought was quite, quite good. Quick explainer, which is, think of kilowatts as the width of a water pipe filling a swimming pool. A standard home charger trickles power overnight at roughly 7 kilowatts, like a garden hose. A Tesla supercharger, long considered the gold standard of public fast charging, maxes out at around 250 kilowatts. So 7 kilowatts at home, like a garden hose. Tesla supercharger maxed out at 250 kilowatts. Haven't seen that too often from Tesla superchargers, but they are very quick. Byd, however, is unleashing six times that amount of energy, effectively hooking the car up to a high pressure municipal water main. I liked that. That was a nice, yes, nice explain. And yes, you can drive electric cars in the rain just while I'm on
- [24:59]
Robert Llewellyn
that subject, because what I missed with that anecdote was that I wanted The Tesla supercharger to be like a fire hose from a fire engine, like high pressure loads of water going out, but it would still take a few hours to fill a swimming pool, whereas the other one.
- [25:13]
Dan
It's a good analogy, isn't it though?
- [25:14]
Robert Llewellyn
It's a good analogy, yeah.
- [25:15]
Dan
Nice analogy. And then if you imagine the supercharger network has been transformative for Tesla and obviously there are multiple open sites now where you can charge other brands of cars as well.
- [25:27]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
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Dan
But actually BYD are rolling out 15,000 of their megawatt charging stations across China by the end of the year.
- [25:36]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [25:37]
Dan
And they are going to deploy a 3000 charger network across Europe, I believe UK is including those figures by the end this year as well in K. Wow. That will be a tough assignment because of hooking them up to the grid, but nonetheless, I think we can safely say they're pretty ambitious.
- [25:57]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, yeah. Oh, gosh, yes. And I mean within, certainly within the next five years they will be. There will be a kind of common sight. It's not the one I. The one. The one which is just because it's somehow some of the stuff they do is just bonkers. But is that, you know, you've got. Everyone I think knows how you plug up wire in a big connector into one side of an electric car and that's how you charge it. But there are cars, I think Yangwangs have it, where they have charge ports on both sides of the car. And the way they've designed their overhead cabling thing, you can charge, you can plug in both sides of the car and add 2500kW at once.
- [26:37]
Dan
But if you. For the EV nerds though, actually what's interesting, and I'd read another article about this is what are the implications of these flash chargers and not just BYD from Zeeka and others, et cetera, on the power swap stations, the sort of things that NIO has pioneered because obviously that was their. That was their usp.
- [26:59]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [26:59]
Dan
Quick two minute, three minute change. Now, if there's marginal difference between actually hooking, charging and swapping, where does that sits, you know? Yeah, I. Quite a fan of battery swapping stations, I think.
- [27:14]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes.
- [27:14]
Dan
Looks cool. I can see some, some reason why we'd like it to succeed. But if the charging is more akin to what's going on with. With liquid fuels already.
- [27:24]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [27:24]
Dan
Is there really a need for that? So again, you know, it's gonna be interesting to see how that, that plays out. But yeah, byd they are, they're building their Own dreams, aren't they?
- [27:34]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, yeah, they definitely are.
- [27:37]
Dan
Literally anyway. But it is, it's staggering and there'll be more announcements soon as well and oh yes, hopefully you and I will be joining Elliot in, in Beijing.
- [27:47]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [27:47]
Dan
In April with our eyes wide open mouths ago as we kind of walk around that show and more progress is being made. But maybe we should go on to our third story. I switched around slightly last minute, so. Right on your game, Robert, if you, if you know what this one's about. I call this one Trade Body Trauma.
- [28:15]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, no, I did have a quick look at it and I mean that's my problem is when I come across a new concept like this, I don't know what I think.
- [28:24]
Dan
Well, allow me to make it up for you.
- [28:26]
Robert Llewellyn
Can you help me?
- [28:28]
Dan
I mean it is an interesting topic but fundamentally what we've seen, and I do put it down to a complete vibe shift in North America that then spread to Canada, spread to Europe, etc. We see some regressive policy pullback in America from the current administration there. Kind of made the Canadians go, well, why should we keep our rebates alive? In fact, they're bringing them back in Canada and actually they're letting Chinese cars in as well. So yeah, yeah, every reaction has an equal, an opposite reaction and we're seeing that always Canada. But by the time I got to the Munich Motor show in September, all the talk was that the sort of zero emission ambitions in the Europe, in Europe, in the EU were going to be watered down. We fully expect the same to happen in the UK with the Zeb mandate. We entirely expect that to be watered down again at the cost of billions, by the way, to the emergent battery EV industry. It's a tragedy really, as you just see this political flip flopping, this pendulum swing, you know, I feel very sorry for companies like Ford who are in America and having to deal with policy that's all over the place. Biden saying go back to ev, go battery EV and then Trump you know, pulling the rug out from underneath them. I do have a lot of sympathy, to be fair.
- [29:44]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh gosh, yeah.
- [29:45]
Dan
But to see governments being taken in and gulled by arguments that battery EVs are not the way forward or there isn't real demand for them is, is really, really sad. And obviously there's this huge tectonic plate shifting with particularly around the threat from China, which has meant that the EU is now looking at things like local content requirements.
- [30:09]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [30:10]
Dan
Or batteries and things like that. But actually that sets off an extraordinary Chain of events in its own right. So to give, give an example, many of the European made cars have Chinese componentry and batteries.
- [30:23]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes.
- [30:25]
Dan
So what I've heard is the rumors are that Renault supports these new local content rules.
- [30:31]
Robert Llewellyn
Right.
- [30:31]
Dan
The German automakers who are a bit more tied up with the, the Chinese supply chain, oppose them. Meanwhile, the trade body here in the uk, the smmt, which is the, the equivalent body that represents the kind of, the slightly more laggardly car makers in the UK are saying, well, hang on a second, if you have these local content rules, that's going to seriously impact the cars that are made in Britain because we are now post Brexit outside of any agreements. So it is amazing the impact, you see the chain reaction of different things that happen. I understand why the European car market would try and put up some barriers. I do understand. Yeah, I think we all understand it.
- [31:18]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah. Well, particularly Germany because it's such a huge industry in Germany. I mean they make a lot of cars.
- [31:23]
Dan
We might even have some sympathy for it. But the reality is it's a bit like bolting the stable door after the horse has fucked off about years ago. I mean it is so, excuse my French, it's so late to be realizing this has all been in plain sight. Chinese strategic plans have been published publicly every five years on the dot. And it was the fact that it was only really taken seriously from post Covid Shanghai motor show from 2023. And now there's this rear guard action. Rear guard actions, if you know your warfare don't typically end that well, you know, put a finger in the dam. I'm really mixing my metaphors today. I'm aware of that, you know, trying to stop this progress. But the progress is here. So it's very difficult, policymakers, very difficult for car companies. But I think you have to really think through all the different consequences of this. As I say, a lot of the German car companies, not only do they rely on componentry and batteries from China, they sell a lot of cars or
- [32:29]
Robert Llewellyn
they did, they sell a lot of cars.
- [32:31]
Dan
Yeah, this is a, this is not an easy decision. This is not, these are not easy solutions. And actually you might think that you're slowing progress down, but actually you're going to be hard pressed to do so. You really need to think about this. So this kind of local content story is kind of bubbling, bubbling away. But yeah, if you work at a car factory in Germany or, or anywhere else and your car come, the car maker you work for is struggling. I do sympathize it must be a really terrifying timing. It's also kind of purity and that's. That's going away.
- [33:10]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah. I mean, it's also, I mean, it is interesting that, you know, Jack is just raving about the, the Newer Class A BMWs and I mean, clearly they are as good in some cases, if not better than a lot of Chinese offerings. You know, they are really, they've really. They've got to have spent a few euros developing that whole range of cars. And Volkswagen, I mean, I'm going to see this whole new array of new Volkswagen electric cars soon, which is extraordinary. But they have laid off also like 10,000 people from various factories, you know, so it's a, it's a really difficult time.
- [33:47]
Dan
Well, I'd like to, I'd like to close this topic out by talking about echo chambers, really. We, we all live in them. Right? Yeah. It may be no surprise to know that I know lots of other people who like battery EVs. I met a family member the other day who works in the motor trade. He's dead against them. It's quite interesting. We didn't have a. Have an argument because of the setting where we were yesterday, but the reality is that he's in an echo chamber. I'm in an echo chamber.
- [34:17]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [34:18]
Dan
So you have to refer, I think, to the facts on the ground and facts can be warped and spun and misinterpreted. You have to look at the fact that battery EV uptake is increasing, maybe slower than people would have liked. And I think misinformation's got a lot to do with that, by the way.
- [34:35]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [34:36]
Dan
Oh, gosh, yes, a lot to do with that. But they're still growing and actually they're the bright spot in a lot of sales figures. It's battery EVs and to an extent plug in hybrids as well are the kind of bright spots as petrol and diesel sales decline. But we inhabit these echo chambers. And now, if you're a German car manufacturer, for example, you have an incredible heritage, an incredible record of making extraordinary cars. My First EV was BMW i3. I love it, really like the look of the iX3. BMW have done an extraordinary job and that will sell very, very well. But a lot of the car companies think that it's all about driving performance, it's all about how stylish the car is, all the rest of it. The bulk of car buyers just want a vehicle to be able to get from A to B in.
- [35:29]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes. Yeah.
- [35:30]
Dan
And as the car industry kind of, there is obviously room for A really good looking car, you know, expensive car, you know, car with all the trimmings. But fundamentally the smaller car, the more affordable car, even the cheaper suv, whatever that that has been underserved market and others are now providing into that market. Let's not be fooled to think everyone likes the roar of an engine or everyone wants to, you know, take their car around Nurburgring 11 of their life. That's a very, very small amount. People, most people just go to supermarkets and it's as simple as that. So that's why ultimately the economics are stacked against all of these companies. But yeah, BMW have done a fantastic job. But I can also see now whether you know, the SMMT or other trade bodies, they are going through something of a trauma because they represent the most conservative and the most laggedly people from aspects of the supply chain who under threat and they will be shouting at their trade body saying represent us. EVS aren't the way forward. EVS aren't the way forward because they inhabit a certain echo chamber. But meanwhile in real life EV sales and the economics of EVs just get better and better. Better. So really tough to be working in those organizations right now. Yeah, they'll be lobbying for governments to slow things down.
- [36:52]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [36:53]
Dan
But there is just an inevitability about what is to to come. So you're seeing huge amounts of cognitive dissonance across the car industry at the moment, lashings of denial. But the reality is just keep looking at the sales figures. And it's not just Chinese car companies. The Koreans have got some great EVs. Yeah. But there is room for some of these companies. And what does that mean in the, in the longer term? I think BMW will be fine by the way. I think they are really. Yeah, really come good at the right time. It kind of the, the teens. When I bought my first i3 it was kind of not that relevant. It was kind of early adopter stage. But now as they're meeting the market with great EVs they're perfectly positioned. I think VW might have got there slightly early in a weird way, but are now have quite a good range of cars and a refined fine tune in their approach. But for every BMW and vw there's another company that is miles behind and is going to miss the wave and are still trying to talk everyone else out of it and have inadvertently talk themselves out of it at the same time. So anyway, that conversation's become quite circular and self charging in its own right. So I think, you know, I'm talking about but I knew I could charging
- [38:07]
Robert Llewellyn
episode
- [38:09]
Dan
but the reality is this kind of local content thing really, really interesting to, to, to watch it play out and even watch the European countries disagree with each other. Because actually if you're Hungary for example, I don't know if hungry's in the eu. I really apologize for that. But if you do, if you're hungry you're thinking I've got jobs here. Factories. I think C8BYD are both an Hungry. If you're Germany you might be thinking actually I've got a lot of tie ups with the Chinese. I can't really afford for that to go. If you're in France you might thinking you know, local content. Local content. So it's going to be a huge strain on the EU and the policymakers and the car makers within the marketplace.
- [38:43]
Robert Llewellyn
I mean I don't know of any European car maker that actually manufactures their own cells, their own battery cells. I don't think any do any. I don't think any of them because I'm just thinking oh Renault. Because I went around the black factory, the dark factory, whatever it's called that makes their battery packs but the actual cells, this was a few years ago, the cells are all Chinese.
- [39:04]
Dan
There's not much. There is some because I know that when the electric car grant started in the UK, two of the different Renault 5 variants, I think one of them was eligible for the local, more local content because the electric car grant has something which meant you have to be building in a more sustainable fashion and obviously building the batteries in Asia or the batteries were coming from Asia then that would invalidate and disqualify you. So I think there was a curiosities that I think it was five that had two different battery types. One battery was coming from European supply and the other.
- [39:40]
Robert Llewellyn
Right, okay.
- [39:41]
Dan
And therefore one of the models was eligible for the higher rate and one wasn't eligible at all.
- [39:46]
Robert Llewellyn
Right.
- [39:46]
Dan
So someone will correct me on that in the notes I'm sure. But I think yes, that's, that's the reality. So yeah, the bulk of the batteries are being made in China. I mean but Korea is, is doing very, very well. Has also, if you read into it closely, has also been a little bit outmaneuvered by the speed of change with China and LFP batteries in particular. Anyway, that's, we've waffled on a lot. Maybe we should appoint our winners and losers of the week.
- [40:12]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh gosh. Well, yes, you go for, you go for yours. Because I'm trying to think of. Well, I Mean, there's only one loser I want to mention, but he's got unrealistic skin.
- [40:22]
Dan
Scratch that itch. Who's the loser of it? Who could it possibly be?
- [40:25]
Robert Llewellyn
Well, I potentially, you know, the man who started the Epstein Wars.
- [40:30]
Dan
The Epstein horse. Brilliant. Yeah. Okay. You so need to say. Say no more. Well, I think, I think from my point of view, yeah, I think BYD are, are a winner.
- [40:43]
Robert Llewellyn
But yes, it's hard for them.
- [40:44]
Dan
I think, I think I would say on a noses week, BMW, that car that they brought to mind.
- [40:49]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, yeah.
- [40:51]
Dan
And the next one, which I'm even more excited about.
- [40:53]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes, that's the one I'm more interested. Not an suv.
- [40:56]
Dan
Real men drive saloons, not suv. We should start that, I think. But I think BMW are doing a great, a great job as well. And it just goes to show, right, we've mentioned Renault, we mentioned BMW, we've mentioned byd, we've mentioned some of the Korean supremacy. It's not just China. There are some brilliant, brilliant battery EVs out there because of the increased competition.
- [41:22]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [41:22]
Dan
And that ultimately, when all said and done, means better and better and more affordable cars for consumers, for average people. I know you hate that word for people.
- [41:31]
Robert Llewellyn
No, I love it.
- [41:31]
Dan
People.
- [41:32]
Robert Llewellyn
I want to be an average person.
- [41:33]
Dan
People and losers. Losers. Yeah. Well, I mean, I think clearly every week I do this podcast. It's hard not to mention because we've been doing this podcast for about three months that America just his mate.
- [41:46]
Robert Llewellyn
So hard not to. Because. Yeah, because I mean it's again, it's that thing I've been criticized or you know, occasionally, you know, why are you so anti American? And I'm not. I'm definitely not. If anything, I'm exactly the opposite. I need to check my obsession with America like we all do because we, we've grown up with that culture being so dominant. But it's not the people or the country, it's the current administration, which is just, you know, you can't. And I'm so glad. Now I'm hearing more and more politicians going, yeah, we should always maintain our relationships. But there comes a point where that just becomes impossible, you know, when you've got a complete narcissistic loon at the helm with a load of the most pathetic sycophants. I mean, they should be so ashamed. All the people who suck up to that guy and the CEOs and the, you know, the corporate CEOs that do. I mean, it's just, it's shameful really, more than anything else. It's got nothing to do with policy. He doesn't have any policy.
- [42:40]
Dan
Well, I. I would agree with you. You know, ultimately, I love America. I love Americans. To see this happening is so sad. But I was thinking about the other day about doing a little post about all the tech I might buy that's not American, because I. Yeah. I've. I drive an American car. Yeah. I'm talking to you now on an Apple.
- [43:06]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes.
- [43:07]
Dan
Product.
- [43:08]
Robert Llewellyn
The freakish thing is they're all made in China.
- [43:12]
Dan
The irony.
- [43:13]
Robert Llewellyn
So you are. You know, if you're anti Chinese and anti American, you're really stuffed. You've got to get two cans. We. We got a bit of string. We.
- [43:20]
Dan
We published this on American platforms.
- [43:22]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [43:22]
Dan
You know, so I'm. Yeah, I'm looking into all of the different options that are not American. I think that you'll see more of that to.
- [43:30]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah, I'll go without question. There's a big movement in that.
- [43:32]
Dan
Honest. Because, yeah, as you say, a lot of the CEOs of the tech firms are looking after their own interests. Again, you understand it. That's how powerful that is. Right. But, yeah, yeah, he is. He's not taking us all the world. Any. Any place good. But fundamentally, I believe whatever he does, the economics of renewables. The economics of.
- [43:51]
Robert Llewellyn
Yes. It doesn't affect.
- [43:52]
Dan
That will only improve and perhaps he might even exacerbate the situation in favor of those technologies.
- [43:58]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [43:59]
Dan
But, yeah, so BMW for the win.
- [44:02]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah. BMW and byd. Basically, if you're a car company that begins with B. Yeah. You're sorted.
- [44:08]
Dan
Yeah. When I think of another one now.
- [44:10]
Robert Llewellyn
Yeah.
- [44:10]
Dan
I can't.
- [44:11]
Robert Llewellyn
Oh, Bentley.
- [44:11]
Dan
Oh, not so much. I'm on that bombshell.
- [44:15]
Robert Llewellyn
On that bombshell. So I should wrap this up and tell you to subscribe, but that's it, as always. Oh, well, we'll see you next time here. But because I don't know whether. Will Imogen be back for the next one? I'm not sure.
- [44:30]
Dan
Oh, I hope so. I mean. Yeah, I think. No, I think so. She's having a lot of time. We try not to disturb her. She's been working.
- [44:38]
Robert Llewellyn
No, we're not. We're not disturbing her. No, she's not having a break. But anyway, that's it. So until next time, as always, if you have been. Thank you for watching.