Podcast Summary: Everything Electric Podcast – "EV EU-TURN! UK Under Pressure? + Our Predictions of a 'Carpocalypse' in 2026?"

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Imogen Bogle & Dan Caesar (Fully Charged Show)
Theme: An in-depth look at Europe’s possible EV policy rollback, industry-wide challenges, predictions for 2026, and major changes afoot at the Fully Charged Show.

Episode Overview

In an energetic yet candid year-end episode of the Everything Electric Podcast, Imogen Bogle and Dan Caesar dissect breaking developments on European Commission policy around electric vehicles (EVs)—specifically, the potential pushback of the target date for banning new combustion engine vehicles. The duo analyzes the consequences for OEMs, market dynamics, and UK policy, before making bold predictions for what they term a potential “carpocalypse” and significant industry consolidation in 2026. Plus: a look ahead at what's coming up from Fully Charged's expanding universe of shows and events.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The European EV Policy 'U-Turn': What’s Happening & Why? (03:18–14:43)

• Commission's Move: The European Commission is poised to water down its previous commitment—a full ban on new combustion engine car sales by 2035—likely moving to a 2040 target and allowing significant space for plug-in hybrids and potentially E-fuels or biofuels (03:37).

• Why Now? The car market is struggling as a whole, not just EVs. Industry lobbies and economic pressures have built up against ambitious deadlines, especially from automotive giants reluctant or slow to adapt.

• Historical Context: The current debate is rooted in the aftermath of 2016’s Dieselgate scandal, which spurred calls for cleaner technology and stricter air pollution regulations.

  “If it weren’t for policy pushes, we wouldn’t be driving around the cars with seatbelts and catalytic converters. Industry does need a nudge in the right direction, but so do consumers... There’s just a torrent of misinformation.”
  —Dan Caesar (04:21)

• Potential Consequences:

  • Rolling back the deadline risks losing momentum just as EV technology has become more economically viable.
  • Could set a dangerous negative signal, emboldening naysayers and reducing pressure on slow-moving OEMs.

2. Searching for Positives & Systemic Flaws (08:01–09:01)

• Fleet Emissions Averages: The policy tweaks may incentivize OEMs to offer more small, affordable EVs—bringing back models like the VW Polo as ID Polo, and increasing support for fleets.

• Social Climate Fund: Expansion of financial support for lower-income households to buy EVs (successfully trialed in France and Sweden).

  “...this sort of EV push kind of through the back door… [but] that is a buzzy headline that sends a really negative signal to the world.”
  —Imogen Bogle (09:22)

• Consumer Demand: Despite negative rhetoric, consumer appetite and EV sales remain strong, up 21% year-on-year in 2025 (10:50).

3. Consequences for Europe's Auto Industry and the China Factor (11:14–15:54)

• Missed Opportunities: European OEMs initially launched successful small EV models but abandoned them for higher-margin SUVs—now they face harder competition.

  “If you took away that white noise and misinformation, people would be trying [EVs] much more quickly… almost no EV drivers go back again.”
  —Dan Caesar (13:32)

• China’s Rise: The slower Europe moves, the more market share Chinese manufacturers are poised to take—demonstrated by their ramped-up EV production and European market growth.

• Policy Implementation: Reflecting on what could have been done differently; more thoughtful communication, less focus on bans, greater emphasis on education and incentives.

4. Rethinking Incentives & Market Strategies (19:58–21:35)

• Efficiency Over Emissions: Imogen floats the idea of mandating efficiency targets rather than emissions, addressing both engineering challenges and reducing the fossil fuel lobby’s sway.

• Innovative Incentives: Re-thinking subsidies, such as offering free charging for years instead of one-off purchase rebates.

  “Incentives you receive as a one-off basis feel different to incentives that you may experience on an ongoing basis.”
  —Imogen Bogle (20:38)

5. The Three 'E's for a Successful Transition (21:35–22:40)

Education, Efficiency, and Effective Nudges:

• Test Drives & Education: Real-world EV exposure dramatically shifts perceptions.
• Affordable Options: Mainstream brands are introducing lower-cost models with familiar names (VW Polo, ID2, Cupra Reval) to lower the entry point for consumers.

6. Impact on the UK and Global Policy (25:53–29:07)

• Strategic Crossroads: UK faces a choice—follow the EU’s backtrack or hold firm and seize a competitive lead, potentially welcoming Chinese manufacturers (per Dr. Andy Palmer’s recommendations at 27:18).

• Long-Term Competitiveness: Slowing down doesn't change where the industry is heading; it just undermines domestic competitiveness and resilience.

  “Technology does not slow down simply because politicians become anxious. China is already years ahead.”
  —Dr. Andy Palmer, quoted by Dan Caesar (27:39)

7. Everything Electric / Fully Charged Show 2026 Preview (31:33–36:07)

• More Podcasts:

  • Robert Llewellyn's “Fuse” (formerly Almost Breaking News).
  • Imogen’s new interview series “Spark,” featuring notable guests (e.g., CEO of Renault Group, CEO of Slate Auto).
  • “Tech in China” with Elliott Richards, focused on the broader tech scene in China including AI, drones, and robotics.

• Expanded Events:
  2026 will include international shows (Sydney, multiple UK cities), with an emphasis on new tech, test drives, and hands-on experiences.

  “Our live shows... surprise us every time because it's such a wonderful convening of people who are passionate about this stuff. We can talk about it in a way that's so deeply pragmatic, but shows the benefits of these technologies.”
  —Imogen Bogle (36:07)

8. Predictions for 2026: The “Carpocalypse”? (36:40–48:05)

• 2025 Recap: Their previous predictions were validated—Chinese EVs now hold 11.5% of the European market and more affordable EVs have arrived.

• 2026 Outlook: The “big squeeze” is coming—pressures will force consolidation among both Chinese "upstart" carmakers (Li Auto, Nio, Xpeng) and legacy OEMs (notably JLR, Nissan, Stellantis).

  “I call it the big squeeze. I think there's a huge consolidation of car companies coming down the pipe. I think it's unavoidable.”
  —Dan Caesar (39:32)

• AI’s Role: Dan’s “Gemini 3” AI bot also suggests risk for these brands.

• Supply Chain Localization: Imogen predicts strategic bifurcation—a split in OEM strategy by region, with localization rules and supply chains driving divergence (44:05–46:14).

• Endgame: Battery EVs and extended-range EVs will prevail; hedging on other technologies is unwise.

  “I would be putting my money on battery EVs and extended-range electric vehicles as the kind of the most likely path to future success.”
  —Dan Caesar (47:30)

9. The Unique Complexity of the Auto Industry (48:05–49:53)

• The industry’s sheer workforce, cultural cachet, global supply chains, policy dependencies, and consumer emotiveness make the transition to EVs especially fraught and fascinating.

  “...it's a consumer good that people buy rationally and irrationally—and desire—and rely on to get from A to B... all the emotions and fascinating.”
  —Imogen Bogle (48:36)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Policy Signal:
  “It is with a heavy heart that we think actually this could significantly change the dynamics... I actually think this is going to be a real self-defeating moment for the European automotive market.”
  —Dan Caesar (07:50–14:23)

• On Industry Missed Opportunities:
  “Anyone who's been in this industry for long enough will know that less than 10 years ago, VW had the E-Up... They have had great small EVs already. They just walked away from it.”
  —Dan Caesar (11:34)

• On Misleading “Bans”:
  “I've always felt words like ban are not representative of the reality... that's where we're lacking, because the policymakers often don't understand EVs themselves.”
  —Dan Caesar (15:54)

• On Supply Chain Sovereignty:
  “It's not necessarily this kind of anti-EV sentiment... It's much more about sovereignty. Even if we look at China, the motivation is sovereignty of industry.”
  —Imogen Bogle (45:38)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:18 — Context for the European Commission's policy backtrack
• 08:01 — Details on shifting targets and loopholes
• 11:14 — Impact on manufacturers and the legacy-modern divide
• 19:58 — Imogen’s “la la land” thinking: efficiency target proposal
• 21:35 — Dan’s “3 E's” for the EV transition
• 25:53 — UK’s strategic choices: lessons from Andy Palmer
• 31:33 — Everything Electric / Fully Charged 2026 plans (“Fuse,” “Spark,” “Tech in China” podcasts and new live shows)
• 36:40 — Industry predictions: consolidation, the “carpocalypse,” and the AI-powered risk list
• 44:05 — Supply chains & policy bifurcation, long-term global impacts
• 48:05 — The complexity and emotional resonance of the automotive sector

Conclusion

Imogen and Dan offer a nuanced, data-driven yet personal take on the turbulence in automaking and policy, juxtaposing serious stakeholder analysis with industry insider optimism. Their message: the road to electrification is inevitably forward, no matter current bumps. Next year will test not only manufacturers but also governments' ability to set brave policy—and 2026 could see both casualties and precedents that shape transport for a generation.

Stay tuned to the Fully Charged Show and Everything Electric in 2026 for more incisive coverage, major events, and deep-dive interviews with industry leaders.