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Everything Electric Podcast
EV EU-TURN! UK Under Pressure? + Our Predictions of a 'Carpocalypse' in 2026?
00:48:31
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- [00:00]
Imogen Bogle
Guys, thanks for helping me carry my Christmas tree. Zoe, this thing weighs a ton. Drew Ski, live with your legs, man.
- [00:06]
Dan Caesar
Santa.
- [00:06]
Imogen Bogle
Santa, did you get my letter?
- [00:07]
Dan Caesar
He's talking to you britches.
- [00:09]
Imogen Bogle
I'm not. Of course he did. Right, Santa, you know my elf Drew Ski here.
- [00:14]
Dan Caesar
He handles the nice list. And elf, I'm six' three. What everyone wants is iPhone 17 and at T Mobile you can get it on them. That center stage front camera is amazing for group selfies. Right, Mrs. Claus?
- [00:25]
Imogen Bogle
I'm Mrs. Claus. Claus much younger sister. And AT T Mobile, there's no trade in needed when you switch. So you can keep your old phone.
- [00:32]
Dan Caesar
Or give it as a gift.
- [00:33]
Imogen Bogle
And the best part, you can make the switch to T Mobile from your phone in just 15 minutes. Nice.
- [00:37]
Dan Caesar
My side of the tree is slipping. Kimber, the holidays are better. AT T Mobile switch in just 15 minutes and get iPhone 17 on us with no trade in needed. And now T Mobile is available in U.S. cellular stores with sweeper. Monthly bill credits for well qualified customers plus tax and $35 vice connection charge credit sentinel balance due to payout earlier. Cancel Finance Agreement. 256 gates $830. Eligible Ford in a new line, $100 plus a month plan with auto fees required. Check out 15 minutes or less per line.
- [00:59]
Imogen Bogle
Visit t mobile.com wix it's where website creation meets AI and where your boldest ideas become real. It just takes one platform to build a site that looks great and does everything you need it to. And it just takes one person you to start taking care of business. Like a 10 person team with AI tools for creating an entire website from scratch or testing new ways to make money. WIX is there with you from day one. Try it out now@wix.com. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Pulse podcast. The podcast where we go into the life and death of the automotive industry over the next decade. Hosted by me, Imogen Bogle and CEO of Fully Charged show, Dan Caesar. How are you doing?
- [01:48]
Dan Caesar
I'm well, I'm reflecting on the year gone by and I'm looking forward to next year. But I would say it's an extraordinary time to be in the automotive industry. We'll get into some of that. There's noises emanating from the European Commission even as we record. So lots of news. There's never a dull day. Let's just be positive. There's never a dull day.
- [02:10]
Imogen Bogle
There is never a dull day. And we said the same thing last week that we thought, okay, is it going to get to a point where it's quite difficult to sort of always find stories to fill this podcast. No, there are too many stories and we have to filter out many, many, many of them. We are of course having this podcast. It's our last one of Pulse for this year, so this is going to take a slightly different format. We are going to talk a bit about the European Commission, what that means for 2035 targets. We're going to make some predictions for 2026 and we're going to share what's in store for fully charged show both everything electric cars, everything electric tech and our live shows in 2026. So all of that to come. But first, a very quick advert break.
- [02:51]
Dan Caesar
This episode is brought to you by Hankook. The Hankook ion tyre is built exclusively for electric vehicles, engineered to deliver what EV drivers need most confident grip, quietness, energy efficiency and long mileage. As the official tyre partner of Formula E, HongKook proves its EV technology is at the highest level of performance and brings that same innovation to every ion tyre on the road, we are cutting.
- [03:19]
Imogen Bogle
Straight to the chase here because we are not messing about. There is lots to get into when it comes to this 2035 discussion. You've shared a number of articles with me. I think the one that's the most detailed is from Automotive News. Can you explain what is going on and why we're talking about it today?
- [03:38]
Dan Caesar
I mean, effectively you've got a new technology, it's not a new technology and that electric vehicles have been around for over a century. But for all intents and purposes, as new technology coming through, it needs a nudge along in the right direction. Because as humans we are fundamentally afraid of change. Not me personally, but I can see why people would be hesitant about new technology. Quite often people have bought new technology at the whims of a government, diesel technology being one that we can remember as from a few years back in the uk. And that technology has not panned out. It's been more expensive environmentally and from an economic perspective, and people are hesitant to believe politicians when it comes to which technology to opt for. But new technology does need a nudge in the right direction. It does need government to, you know, set all the traffic lights to green if you like, so we can seamlessly move to a future of these new technologies. But the road ahead is extremely bumpy. And also, I was talking to someone on LinkedIn just last night and they were saying, why do EVs need any policy support? Shouldn't they just survive or fail on their own Strengths and weaknesses. And the reality is that if it weren't for policy pushes, we wouldn't be driving around the cars with seat belts and catalytic converters. Industry does need a nudge in the right direction, but so do consumers. And I think even more so when it comes to EVs because actually there is just a torrent of misinformation. Everything has an equal and opposite reaction. But the reality is EVs are cheaper and better. But if you read the media, you spoke to the average politician, you would not believe that was the case. That's getting lost. And actually all that misinformation is costing us even more in subsidy, even more in incentive. And of course in Europe now that EV support is under attack, effectively the European Commission had ruled that no new cars would go on sale with a combustion engine from 2030. That has been lobbied very, very hard against for a long period of time. The reality is the car market in general is struggling. Not just electric cars, but the whole car market is struggling. And the move to EVs is being fought by some companies, some lobbyists and actually people are saying, you know, we need to pump the brakes, we need to slow down. And I think that's a mistake. We'll get into to that. But what we've long feared would happen is being discussed in the European Commission at the time of recording. And I think it' fait accompli, to use some French language, I think it will be weakened and as we understand it, it will actually be pushed back from 2035, the zero emission target, to 2040 plug in hybrids and extended range electric vehicles, E revs as they're known or reeves by some companies, provided their emissions can be offset, will be kind of eligible, possibly reinclusion of things like sustainable fuels like E fuels or biofuels. And I happen to this is a huge backward step. But if we go back a decade, and it is literally a decade to where this all began. It really was Dieselgate back in 2016, about 10 years ago now, that really kicked off this situation. Volkswagen were mired right in the middle of that. But they were not the only car manufacturer at all. They were the one that actually caught a lot of the blame for that. But the reality is that's triggered the whole thing around air pollution. And since that time electric vehicles have come on leaps and bounds and they are now cheaper and better. So we think this is a big mistake. And we know the European Commission is about to help the automotive industry in Europe as it sees it, slow down the progress. But I would ask, actually, does that change the realities just because the economics are difficult? As a lucid motors exec. So the other day, has the physics changed? The physics has not changed. Electric vehicles are still the better option. So it is with a heavy heart that we think actually this could significantly change the dynamics and potentially could knock on to the UK as well, which I'm sure we'll get into in a bit more detail.
- [08:02]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah, it's so tricky. So today it's being debated of does the 2035 target for essentially the banning of combustion engine vehicles, does it shift to 2040 and the 2035 target become 90%? Which ostensibly means that about every other car could likely be a PHEV. And as we know, lots of PHEVs actually use their electric range. Their emissions are kind of artificially, or not artificially inflated, they are inflated. So it's a negative outlook. And I think clearly the European Commission is in an impossible situation where it's being lobbied very much by the fossil fuel lobby. It is also having to support an automotive industry that perhaps didn't move quickly enough and it can't punish it for that previous decade of not moving fast enough. But then also, when you look at it like a little bit more between the lines, there are some positive things in there and I'm trying to find the positives because we're getting towards the end of the year and we can't go into Christmas feeling totally depressed.
- [08:59]
Dan Caesar
You do the positives and I'll do the others.
- [09:02]
Imogen Bogle
I will do my. Try my damned hardest. So some other things that have been, you know, been put forward is that actually we look at the average of fleet emissions, so the average of a, of an OEM's fleet emissions that they sell. And the advantage of that, of course, would mean that there perhaps can be smaller, lighter, compact electric cars, which to date they haven't really made sense for European OEMs to make in the same volumes because they're not typically as profitable vehicles. So definitely there's incentives to make smaller, lighter electric cars here in Europe. That is a positive. There's also some speculation around greater support for fleet vehicles to go electric. So things like company car schemes, which as we know though, are a huge way to incentivize companies, number one and number two, to feed that secondhand EV market. We've seen that very acutely here in the uk. And then the third thing that I'm again feeling optimistic and positive about is that actually there is this social climate fund that EU has, the Social Climate Fund. Germany is Very interested in this. And Sweden have just had a policy that's been approved. This is the Sweden, Sweden's EV incentive scheme, which essentially is support for lower income households to help them make that transition to electricity. We've seen that already be extremely successful in France. So it's almost like, and this is going to be my interpretation that this is a buzzy headline statement to the traditional OEMs to say, okay, we hear you, we'll push it back to 2040, but by the way, we're also going to provide a load of carrots elsewhere, which is this sort of EV push kind of through the back door. The trouble is, and the thing that makes me feel negative is that that is a buzzy headline that sends a really negative signal to the world when actually, you know, this year, I think between January 1st and 30th of November this year, there have been 18.5 million EVs sold. Granted, that does also include hybrids and that's a year on year increase of 21%. People want EVs, they are good products and they make sense. But the discussions today don't fill everyone with that amount of joy.
- [11:15]
Dan Caesar
You've put the positive case brilliantly. I couldn't have done it better. I mean, I definitely like to see my battery as half full, you know that. But the reality is the signal that concerns me. But let's go a little bit more into the detail, you know, for, you know, European automotive execs to say, actually we need smaller cars. It really, really struggle with that statement. Because the reality is because of economics, when EVs came along, car companies started with quite high priced, premium, often SUV style cars because that's where they felt they could make more margin. So Volkswagen Group, for example, which we'll talk about in today's podcast, my first car that I bought outright was a VW Polo. That's coming back as an all electric ID Polo next year, which is fantastic news. But the reality is that anyone who's been in this industry for long enough will know that less than 10 years ago, VW had the E up, he had the Skoda City go. It had to say at me, they have had great small evs already. They just walked away from it. And they're not just picking again on VW. BMW had the i3, which is my first electric car. Look, I'm very, very pro German car making. I think what they have done is extraordinary and it is a real bind for the European Commission for the automotive industry at large. Really, really difficult decisions have to be made. And so from my standpoint, whenever I hear about some of this stuff I am thinking, well ultimately the signals were there had you moved earlier. And I guess it's that old analogy about turning a tanker. It's very, very slow to do so and some of them are in and out. You know, BMW were really early with the i3, perhaps too early in some, in some respects. Then they got cold fe. Now they're back with the neue class of vehicles which I think are going to be revolutionary in 2026. But it's little things like the reinclusion potentially of E fuels, you know, talks of technology neutrality, things like that, that really concern me because ultimately that brings out, I guess these big signals, bring out all of the kind of naysayers again to say I told you so. The market's not ready for electric vehicles, people don't want them. And the reality as we know is if it took away the misin, you took away that white noise and misinformation, people would be trying them much more quickly. And actually almost no EV drivers go back again. It is simply better and cheaper technology. So fundamentally you've got all that noise and this will just make that worse I'm afraid. So I am trying to be positive. I do absolutely believe the future is all electric. I just think unfortunately the people of lobbying will successfully have slowed down this transition and I don't think they've sold the underlying fundamental issues that companies, countries like Germany have with their economy. It's built around the engine. But if the engine is no more, which ultimately is the direction of travel, where does that leave the German economy in 5 to 10 years time if it's really not got to grips with the EVs? As I say, I think VW are making some, some good moves as are, as are BMW. But I actually think this is going to be a real self defeating moment for, for European automotive market. Even though in the short term it might feel like it's won some concessions.
- [14:43]
Imogen Bogle
Oh completely. And I think a lot of the rhetoric at the moment is that oh well, well done uk, you've succeeded in this lobbying but you are going to lose a tremendous amount of market share to Chinese OEMs who don't care about your legacy automotive industry and they do in as much as they're willing to take a bit of market share and to take previous German OEM execs over to China and get them into their Design Studios etc etc. But, and yeah, we're going to lose out, German OEMs are going to lose out a lot of market share to those Chinese EVs. But I think if we were. Because a lot of this upset comes from the fact that EVs were the sort of the thing that felt mandated. And lots of people would say that it should have been. The target should have been technology agnostic, and the target should have been reducing emissions, not sort of saying that combustion engines should be banned. So if we could rewind the clock for a moment, what would be some of the things that you would have implemented alongside this 2035 timeline? So let's go back to August 2023. What would you have done between August 23rd, when that announcement was made, and now to help avoid the situation that we're now in?
- [15:54]
Dan Caesar
That's a great question and one I'm completely unprepared for, but I'll give it a go. You know, the reality is that you've got to take people with you. So obviously if you tell people to do something, quite a lot of us are qu reliable and we'll listen to that. But there's probably a larger rump of people who will actually push back against that, say, look, I'm not going to be told what to do, what to buy, what to choose. And we hear that kind of language all the time. The reality is that Even with a 2035 day, actually, you didn't need to switch for another decade. You know, so language to tell people, actually you're not being made to do this now. You're made. You're being kind of asked to look at it for a future date. So I've always felt words like ban are not representative of the reality. You know, the immediacy that's portrayed in the media is totally unhelpful and hysterical, frankly. And ultimately there is quite a big window opportunity to educate. And that's the space, whether it's between 2023 and 2025 or even on ongoing basis. That's where we're lacking, because the policymakers often don't understand EVs themselves are not able to sell the proposition. And it's a very, very strong story. The same applies to the automotive market. If they're made to feel that actually this is going to cost them jobs, it's going economically, then maybe they won't get fully behind that. We've all heard of stories when people go into dealerships and say, I want an electric car and someone in the dealer will try and sell them something differently. Well, I was in the Ford dealership recently with some super astute sales Guys there who understood EVs and were selling the benefits and they worked out what the strong arguments were. That education piece is fundamentally missing. And that's where I think the policymakers, the media and also people in the automotive industry need education on how good these technologies are. I remember going to an ad agency a few years ago that represented one of the German manufacturers and they were saying, how do we communicate the benefits of evs? And I, I asked them how many have even tried one in that group? And no hands went up. I mean that's the reality of the situation. So we're very fortunate to have driven lots of EVs. We understand it to have lived with them, driven a long way to saved a fortune in doing so, knowing that they don't immolate at the side of the road, that actually charging is really easy. The whole procedure is actually much more straightforward than the media portrays. So that education piece is where we have a big opportunity. Because going back into a place where we talk about technology neutrality is a huge backward state, backward step. Ursula von der Leyen has promised to carve out space for E fuels as a request from Germany. But biofuels are hugely contentious and actually if you work out how much crop you have to use to create biofuels, for example, it is completely unsustainable both in terms of capacity and environmentally. I mean it is absolutely crazy. We need to move to electrification. And you might surprise you to say that I am actually quite open minded to these extended range electric vehicles. I think the danger with plug in hybrids actually is they're, they're not even a halfway house, particularly if you don't plug them in. But I actually, it might surprise people to understand that. I understand the impulse for extended range electric vehicles and where that's coming from in the market. And I think those are a better bet because they will maybe go 70, 80, 90, 100 miles plus on the, on the, on the battery before you have to kind of dip into the range extender. And it's, the motors are being driven by the electrical power rather than the other way around. So I can see a market for that. I can see some opportunities and I understand why that would be a good stick to say to industry actually. Maybe you're plug in hybrids should become E revs, maybe they should have a longer range because actually most people, if you, if you gave them an option to use a car and to drive it locally, 50 to 100 miles a day, that's going to cover most people's needs, right? So that to Me actually seems like a sensible, genuine halfway house and it's interesting to see some car companies promulgating and promoting that as an opportunity.
- [19:59]
Imogen Bogle
So I totally agree with everything that you've said there and I'm going to look at this through the lens of, of I'm not actually in the European Commission and I'm not held to account to any of the things that they have to do. So I can deploy a bit of la la land thinking and I think in my la la land thinking there's two things I'd implement. One is actually let's ignore emissions because that's where you know, the fossil fuel lobby can get very much involved. It's very, it is about combustion or non combustion, et cetera and actually provide an efficiency target because at that point it becomes so indisputable that A, it's an engineering challenge and B that there are certain powertrains in this instance electric that are much better equipped by like, you know, factors so of converting energy into energy out. But there we go. And the second thing is that I think there is something strange about people's psychology and I'd love to get Rory Sutherland back on the podcast to talk about this. And I think an incentive that you see you receive as a one off basis feels different to incentives that you may experience on an ongoing basis. So say for example there wasn't like there'd never been any incentives to purchase an ev, but actually you had free charging for I don't know, five years. How might that change people's experience of living with these technologies as well? And especially again when cost of living crisis is what it is and is people's number one concern and you know, people are still banging on about charging infrastructure. So anything in that regard?
- [21:36]
Dan Caesar
Well, yeah, I think you make a great, a great point there. I think, you know, for me I would, you know, just summarize it as I'm just making this up on the spot really is the three E's. It's not E fuels but it is education as I've touched on. It is efficiency, if you've touched on and it is those effective nudges. How can we kind of get people to try these things? We've run huge thousands upon thousands of test drives around the world as everything electric it's been hugely successful. How can we do more of that? How can you, you know, like you say, unlock charging capacity? Tesla very famously with Model S, Model X, you know, you could use the superchargers for free for quite, quite a while. So. And that was obviously tremendously successful. So there's huge opportunity there. I mean, I think for me, Volkswagen is the, you know, the, the gorilla in the room. It's, it's an. On this story, at least, we're talking about Europe today. As I said, I had a VW Polo. I'm a big fan of what they've done. They've obviously got other brands under the Volkswagen Group as well. I have had an Audi TT for my sins at one point. You know, I'm kind of all in with the, with the brands. I think from my perspective, they're actually making some pretty good EVs. I think they would acknowledge that software was a bit of an issue early on and I think that. A little bit of an issue. And I think they're in quite a good space now. But what's interesting, if you read their stories this week, is that I think they're sort of. Their sales boss, Martin Sander, said, you know, they've got lots of different launch activities going on. He has categorically said that range extenders will feature in their product portfolio for China. We're looking for opportunities for that technology in other parts of the world. They've also started to merge their naming system. So the VW ID2 as it was originally talked about, is now going to be called VW ID 2 Polo, which I think is emblematic that that's the way forward. That's a huge signal that actually this is the mainstream and therefore we're going to use our mainstream nomenclature to actually cover off these cars. I was super impressed with what they and other German automotive giants were doing at the Munich Auto show earlier this year. I think it is a negotiation of timing rather than do they want to go down this route. But I do wonder that the German market is kind of shooting itself in the foot. But on the Polo, Martin Sanders said, actually you want to simplify choices in a market where consumers often default to legacy nameplates, which makes complete sense to, to me. Ultimately though, that sort of traditional Polo is going to come in around 25, €000. So over 20, £000. I remember buying my first Polo. This would date me, but it was, it was 8, 000 pounds. You know, the, the world has changed. They've got far more safety systems, they're bigger cars, etc. But actually, Martin Sanders, Solo, compared to the combustion version, is going to offer higher performance, stunning acceleration. And actually it's a tacit admission, is it not, that actually these are better cars. And I think one of the things that we talked about initially was the Bev market is up. I mean, it is, it is up. Sales are up everywhere apart from North America. And we all know why there's, you know, that that's happened. If you look at every other market and I can share links to this under this description, it is significantly up. VW alone, their BEV sales in Europe up 60% after 10 months of this year. I mean, that is significant. So I really don't see these companies actually as saying, no, we're not interested in this at all. They're just trying to slow it down to give themselves an opportunity to fend off threat from elsewhere, especially China.
- [25:11]
Imogen Bogle
100%. And I think I've definitely mentioned this before, but I test drove the Cupra Reval a couple of weeks ago. Now, that is the same platform as the VW ID Polo. So, you know, basically they're going to feel pretty similar. It's fun. It's really fun. It is everything that you would want from an ID Polo and definitely embodies what the Polos have been in the past, which is that car that, you know, the cool sixth former would have had and turned up to school when they first started to learn to drive. And inevitably the sixth former who turned 18 first in the year would have the ID Polo. So, yeah, it would be fun. And that's exciting.
- [25:53]
Dan Caesar
I think I owned at least three Golfs in a row at one point and what a great, a great car as well. And ID3 has sold quite well and actually it's a good car. I just don't think it's quite as exciting maybe as a Golf was back in the day. So I'm sure, you know, that's where VW will get to as well. But I think from my perspective, I guess to close out the subject of what the European Commission are about, do, and probably by the time these podcasts come out, have, have done, is that this isn't going to fend off the threat from China or any other country. This does not change the fundamental realities. I've been working a bit more this year with Dr. Andy Palmer, the godfather of EVS. He's the chair of Electric Vehicles UK. He very recently did a sort of a thought piece in a newsletter called Trend is your friend. That's run by a friend of ours called Ben Kilby. And I just like read out a couple of bits because I think it's really, really key. I'm not lobbying for EU Commission to slow down because A, they won't listen to this podcast, B, you know, it's far more complicated than us. So I'm not, I'm not, I don't think we've got influence beyond our, our sphere, but I think this is really interesting. He says it'll be a strategic mistake for which Western manufacturers will pay heavily. Technology does not slow down simply because politicians become anxious. China is already years ahead. Changing a date on a regulatory document does nothing to reverse that. Real history teaches a simple lesson. When governments insulate their markets, they weaken their industries. Protection may feel safe, but in the industrial world shaped by Darwinian competition, ensures that your companies are no longer the fittest. Once that happens, recovery becomes extremely difficult. Where this does become problematic, Imogen, particularly as we're Brits and we happen to reside here and we happen to be closest to this market, is if the EU Commission starts to impact the Zeb mandate in the uk. So Andy went on to say this leaves the UK with a choice. Without a genuinely disruptive strategy, we will simply follow the European Union. The irony is hard to ignore, of course, referring to Brexit. And he proposes a bold alternative. Hold firm on EVA regulation, keep barriers to entry low, reach an agreement with Beijing that allows emerging Chinese brands to establish manufacturing and engineering and Britain use the UK as their base to prepare for entry into Europe and the United States. This may sound ambitious, but it's precisely what Britain once did with Japanese manufacturers in the 70s and 80s. And it mirrors the way China attracted European manufacturers through a long term industrial strategy that began in the early 1990s. I think Andy just sums it up superbly, but also it just makes everyone more competitive. It means better cars, cheaper cars, cleaner air, all those great things. And so, so from my standpoint, slowing things down won't make a big difference to the end picture, but it is actually a mistake and I seriously hope that Europe thrives. German manufacturers do well, but it seems to me to be an error. And I sincerely hope the UK doesn't follow Europe down their path and it uses the Zeb mandate to its advantage.
- [29:08]
Imogen Bogle
Well, it's so irritating how eloquent Dr. Andrew Palmer is, especially because he's a technical guy and technical people aren't always known known for being the best communicators. But he certainly, well, debunks that myth, shall we say. He also, lest we forget, has 50 years of automotive industry experience, which is inconceivable to me as someone who is under the age of 50, but 50 years, like it counts for something. He knows this industry inside out and from a global perspective as well.
- [29:42]
Dan Caesar
Well, that's right. I mean, I don't want to, you know, build up our part too much. I would just say to the UK government, make sure you're speaking to Andy Palmer on a regular, on a regular basis. He understands this. He's seen it before. These trends are nothing new. In fact, this is the way the world works. It changes. You know, I remember when Korean cars started to come into the uk. My uncle, in fact had a dealership for Kia very, very early on. Everyone thought he was crazy. And actually, if you look at what Kia has become, it's quite something. So, you know, the reality is that can we not use this to our advantage? Can we get, you know, more jobs here? It's great that Nissan are building the, the Leaf, the new Leaf in, in Sunderland. It's great that Stellantis are building electric vans in Ellesmere Port and so on and so forth. But, you know, if we really want to make sure we have an automotive industry in the future, we need to have some of that future stuff here. I think so. So it's interesting to see how it pans out. We're trying to be upbeat. It is a blow and it's a blow to the larger story, I think, to the narrative. It's that signal thing that brings out all the naysayers. But the reality is we know where we're headed and I hope the UK holds its nerve and I hope this doesn't hurt European automotive market too much over the next five to 10 years. Foreign. Deserves to be connected. That's why T Mobile and US Cellular are joining forces. Switch to T Mobile and save up to 20 versus Verizon by getting built in benefits they leave out. Check the math@t mobile.com switch and now T Mobile is in US cellular stores. Savings versus Comparable Verizon plans plus the cost of optional benefits plan features. Taxes and fees vary. Savings with three plus lines include third line free via monthly bill credits. Credit stop if you cancel any lines. Qualifying credit required.
- [31:34]
Imogen Bogle
All right, 2026, we're talking about this from two perspectives. One, what's happening for us here at fully charged show on both of our channels and the live shows. And also some thoughts and speculations about what's in store for the industry at large.
- [31:49]
Dan Caesar
Well, I mean, I'd start with what we're doing. I think I'll keep it brief. I don't want to kind of bombard people, but you know, we're an exciting time. There's never been stories to tell, so we continue to do that. But actually the Stories are coming so quickly, so thick and so fast. We're actually adding more podcasts to our output as well. So Pulse is one part of our output. In the new year, Robert Llewellyn's almost breaking news is going to be rebranded as Fuse. So people are going to see him, you know, bust a fuse every, every, every month when he talks about the not quite so current news news. We're also your podcast that you've been working on with Robert and you've had some amazing guests this year is going to be branded as Spark. And maybe you can tell us in a minute of some of the people you, you might be hoping to get on the that podcast in the new year. And we're going to add one more podcast. Why not? We're going to add one called Tech in China, which we're quite excited about. So those familiar with the fully charged show and Everything Electric might know we have a lovely gentleman called Elliot Richards who is an Englishman who lives in Shanghai and he, he shows us incre world of what's going on in China. And this is going to go a little bit broader than cars and home tech. We're actually going to talk about things like humanoid robots and AI and autonomous driving and drones and all those sorts of things as well. So I think that's going to be a fascinating thing. All the podcasts will be in one place at some point, but I think the safest place to find them for the moment is probably a podcast platform like Spotify. And then also we're going to keep pumping out amazing content on our Everything Electric Cars channel, on our Everything Electric Tech channel. And I will tell you about the events, but I think there's some interesting podcasts brewing for next year with industry leaders. Is that right?
- [33:35]
Imogen Bogle
Yes, I've had some amazing pre production calls recently, so we're expecting the CEO of Renault Group that will be at some point in February or March. We're hopefully speaking to the CEO of Slate Auto. So they're doing these super modular, lightweight, low cost electric trucks. Who else we've got we're speaking to live and there's a number of other people who are up our sleeves as well. I've kind of, I'm looking over here because here's the, the production schedule and there's quite a few that are kind of 90% confirmed. So we'll, we'll keep them under wrapped. But yeah, we, we've already got, you know, all of our content kind of lined up between January and March and it's going to Be a busy but super exciting year.
- [34:17]
Dan Caesar
Yes. So absolutely, obviously subscribe to all of our different channels, but lots of good podcast content coming, running. And then fundamentally, I guess Robert would say we sort of stumbled into it by accident. We started running events back in 2018. We've now run 22 around the world. By the next year, we're up to 27 or so. We're refining that process and they've been the most extraordinary thing for us as a business. You know, they've helped us commercially to keep the lights on, but also for us to just spend time with our audience face to face has been. Been incredible. You know, there have been ups and downs. It's a roller coaster, this industry. You know, one minute you're, you know, you're laughing, things are going really, really well. Next minute you're worried about the future because, you know, companies, you know, have closed down or maybe sales are down, misinformation, etc. Etc. And so it's been incredible to engage with our audience. And next year we're going to Sydney in March. We're also going to be doing three shows in the UK in Harrogate in May, in Cheltenham in June and Twickenham in September, and then got at least one more, if not more, to come. We're also looking to license the events out as well. But I guess if I had to sum out what they're, sum up what they're about, I guess they're kind of lots of tech, entertaining talks, tons of test drives and test rides, everything from micro mobility up to commercial vehicles and loads and loads of cars, all the latest cars you can test drive and then loads of home energy tech and other technologies too. And in parallel with our Tech in China podcast that we're also. So we've got some new features next year at our shows, including our future tech hub, where we're going to be showing off things like humanoid robots and all those things in front of a live audience. What could possibly go wrong, Imogen?
- [35:57]
Imogen Bogle
Just hopefully it won't be like the one that they revealed in Russia, where it had a little stumble on the stage in a very comical manner.
- [36:02]
Dan Caesar
Too much folder, I think. Is that too stereotypical? Apologies to anyone from Russia who's listening.
- [36:07]
Imogen Bogle
Well, it's just our live shows are just, just they surprise us every time because it's just such a wonderful convening of people who are passionate about this stuff. And we can talk about it in a way that's so deeply pragmatic, but shows the benefits of these technologies and how the economics can also stack up and we can sit and debate the things that would make our lives a little bit easier as well to accelerate that transition. So lots to be excited about in 2026 from a fully charge show camp perspective. What about your big bets for the industry at large?
- [36:40]
Dan Caesar
Well, we reflected, didn't we, yesterday? I think about the things we've said in years gone by and I think we said that this year would be. Did we say this year would be the year of affordable EVs or Chinese EVs? I can't remember. But.
- [36:56]
Imogen Bogle
Yes, I think we said Chinese EVs would start coming in 2024, but when we look at 2025, Chinese EVs represent 11.5% of the European market. So I think were spot on with that prediction. And also the influx of more affordable sub 25k EVS, I think we were correct in calling that for this year.
- [37:18]
Dan Caesar
Yeah, those are quite broad bets, aren't they? So we got them right. So we shouldn't pat ourselves back because they're quite broad. In fact, Autocar have recently run a story to say that, you know, Chinese car sales in the UK are now more than the Japanese car sales. I mean, that, that feels quite significant as well. But if you. If you were asking me to make a prediction about next year, I feel the need to be a bit more specific. I mean, I think it's. I think if you think the market's been tough, I. I think it's going to get tougher still. We've had the good fortune of doing shows in Sydney this year. Our own show, which was hugely successful under our Everything Electric brand. We found loads of people coming to that show that never heard of Robert Llewellyn, never heard of Fully Charged. We've really broken into the mainstream. So that was vindicated, our decision to kind of rebrand. 18 months ago. I went to the Shanghai show with Robert and Elliot and walked around that with my mouth open the whole time. It was extraordinary to see what's going on there. Almost entirely battery ev. Even better than that, I went to the Munich Auto show where actually it was very Bev heavy as well. Amazing EVs, not just from the Chinese, but from the Germans, from the Koreans, from all over the place. So that was really, really heartening. And then we had a great Farnborough show as well. Well, but probably those were the events that I think were the big ones this year for us, the ones that were really successful. But actually the one that I regret or that frustrates me is that we did do an event in North America back in September and it was, it was much, much harder, as we might have anticipated. I went to Vancouver where we hold our kind of everything Electric Canada event in the summer of 2024 and asked people, you know, if Trump gets in, you know, will that have an effect on the Canadian market and on the British Columbia market more specifically? And they said, well, if you can do a show anywhere, it's, it's safest here. But the Trump effect has been absolutely huge and not in a good way because, you know, effectively walking away from EV rebates really, you know, talking down that market has unfortunately spread into Canada to the extent that by the time we got there to the Vancouver show, EV sales were down 40 year on year. And of course that had an impact on our show. So that was, that was really, really tough to see. So it has to be said that Trump effect is sort of coming across the Atlantic now to, to Europe. Let's hope it doesn't infect the UK as well. But I do feel that next year could be the toughest of them all. I mean, we were sort of talking what, what is going to be the big factor for next year. And I call it, call it the big squeeze. I think there's a huge consolidation of car companies coming down the pipe. I think it's unavoidable. It's well known that China has set a huge amount of horses running just to maybe have, you know, some of them left at the end of the race. And I think we're going to see some consolidation in that market and I think we're going to see some consolidation with the legacy car companies as too. I don't think it's just the move to evs, far from it. The automotive market itself is under stress. Cars are relatively expensive. Cost of living is an issue. There's some big sort of macroeconomic challenges. And I do feel that we are due a correction in the, in the financial markets. I think AI is going to be at the, the heart of that and I think that is going to make 2026 very difficult. So to be more specific, I did double check in with AI here, Imogen. I like to do that to see if it was thinking the same sort of.
- [40:48]
Imogen Bogle
Who's your chat bot of choice?
- [40:50]
Dan Caesar
It's Gemini 3 at the moment. Moment kind of do sort of shop around. But it seems to me that Google sort of leapfrogged OpenAI. I think Google have got so much more data to, to pull from that gives them a huge advantage. So using Gemini 3 I sort of said, you know, if there were going to be three Chinese car companies and you know, three legacy car companies that we should watch out for, what would its sort of six picks be? And I did find myself nodding when it kind of sent back the, the list of companies that it thinks might strike Juggle.
- [41:21]
Imogen Bogle
What was the next.
- [41:22]
Dan Caesar
I'm going to just caveat let's say I don't want any companies to fail, I don't want anyone to lose their jobs. But it seems to me that this consequential game of musical chairs is maybe going to come to something of an abrupt end in 2026. So of the Chinese brands named Li Auto, Neo and Xpeng Lioto did that amazing. Lee Mega, you think you've seen that, that people carrier that we've covered it on everything electric amazing bit of tech but their sales are quite diminished this year. Neo and Xpeng sales are both up and actually I've driven Xpeng cars amazing. Their tech is fantastic. The last thing we want to do is see them struggle but it does seem to me they're a bit more isolated in a big group like a BYD or, or a gle. And the same goes for nio. We're hoping that Firefly will come to the uk, come to Australia next year year. Big fans of that really want them to succeed but they do seem to be the ones that are under the most pressure I think. And then in terms of the legacy manufacturers it is hard not to draw a conclusion that that JLR are going to have an interesting challenge ahead. They still haven't quite brought out their electric Range Rover. It's hard to avoid the fact that Nissan are still, are still, still. Well, they're at risk I think. I mean the reality is, if you remember this time last year there was talks of Nissan and Honda sort of merging that fell apart. Thankfully now I've got the, the Leaf and the Micro to come out but I think those products must succeed if I'm honest. And then also Stellantis was the other name that the, that Gemini picked out and I think as an automotive super group that makes a lot of sense in a number of different ways but. But has it got the right degree of focus on each brand? I mean again some great cars coming out from that, that, that automotive giant but the reality is they, they have seen sales go down, particularly in North America and the reality is if you sat here in the UK and Europe looking at the world and we're sat right in the middle of It. But if you're losing share in China because the Chinese are buying more and more Chinese brands and you're losing shares simultaneously in America because of what's gone on with Trump and, and tariffs, not just EV rebates, but tariffs as well, you're between a rock and hard place. And I think from my perspective, 2026 is a year when there's going to be some, you know, realities are met. And what does that look like? It doesn't mean the company is necessarily going to go pop, but it means, you know, serious consolidation, serious shrinking redundancies and all those sorts of things. As I said, I really hope that doesn't come to pass. But when Gemini fed me those names, I was like, there's a ring of truth in some of those. They are the ones that I'm worried about for. And you.
- [44:05]
Imogen Bogle
Well, it's interesting because you've mentioned the word there, consolidation and squeezing. And I'd say I've got an opinion that's sort of same same, but perhaps ever so slightly different in that, you know, what's the recipe for success with something like the automotive industry? I think it's, and especially with electric vehicles, is that the tech is good enough. Well, it is. That's. That's a tick. You know, we're getting vehicles of sufficient range and sufficient sort of experience that they are better. The economics need to stack up. Well, they do. I think 2026 will be the year where we really do understand that cost parity with internal combustion engine vehicles. And the third is policies. And that's the thing that's wavering. And I think if we look at what's happening across the globe, it's not necessarily this kind of anti EV sentiment, although that is an outcome. It's much more about sovereignty. And even if we look at China, yes, there was some motivation to improve air quality, but it is fundamentally about sovereignty of industry. That is why they have a monopoly on the battery industry. And so perhaps there will be some consolidation and there will be some automakers that won't make it. But I think the thing that will sort of come first is this huge bifurcation of strategies. And actually, does that decrease automakers overall sales? Because they'll end up being much more specific or much more kind of localized for specific markets. And many OEMs will be impacted by localization rules as well. So in the US they're going to have the foreign entity of concern bit come in, which means that their supply chain is going to be much more local. Part of the European Commission discussions today are around localizing supply chains and China has a lot of control over the battery supply chain. So that as an upstream challenge, will also shape what automakers are able to do and how they're supported to do it. That's a very long winded way of saying I agree, but I think the stumbling block that we'll see before that is this bifurcation of strategy and this sort of pursuit from some automakers to stay really firm on the internal combustion engine. And I think overall volumes for some automakers as a result will really shrink is my two cents.
- [46:15]
Dan Caesar
And who knows for absolutely certain? I mean that's the reality, as certain as we can sound, you know, and I do fundamentally believe there's only one, one end point here. But how and when you know, all those things are still up for debate. I'm a big fan of battery evs. Everyone who listened to this will probably be aware of that. I've been driving one for a long time. I understand the benefits of that. Getting more people into that is all well and good, but I have to say if I was a car maker right now, I would be hedging to a degree, but I wouldn't be hedging on hydrogen, I wouldn't be hedging on biofuels, I wouldn't be hedging on diesel, I probably wouldn't even be hedging on petrols and plug in hybrids. EVs, I'd be hedging on Es and BEVs. That's where I think the best chance you've got to come out of it. I've noticed Ford have made some big changes recently. I think they've sort of discontinued the Ford F150 Lightning as it is, is coming back as a, as an E. They're going to create some Bev, smaller pickups etc and they're using platforms like VW and Renault in, in Europe to provide smaller cars more applicable for a European and UK market as well. You know, regrettably that does seem to make some sense. How can you have the same strategy in America as you do in China, as you do in Europe, including the uk? And so my heart goes out to people in the automotive industry because I think it is a really, really difficult time. And it's not just about ev, of course, it's about all those other things. Cars are very expensive things in a world in which things are getting more expensive. And the reality is that we are seeing, seeing peak car sales I think have come and gone and how you reimagine your future is a really, really difficult thing. But yeah, I would be putting my money on battery EVs and extended range electric vehicles as the kind of the most likely path to future success.
- [48:06]
Imogen Bogle
Oh, 100%. And I think just to sort of add some final navel gazing to this discussion, there are very few industries that have the same qualities of the automotive industry in as much as it is an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of people, if not millions across the globe. So it has a very material impact on people's livelihoods and their identities, how they ascribe value to what they do day to day. It is also very much impacted by geopolitics, both in terms of its supply chain and also the policies that support or don't support specific technologies. And at the end of the day, it's a consumer good that people buy rationally and irrationally and desire and and lastly also rely on to get from A to B. So it is this weird, emotional and weirdly influential product that we enjoy in our lives. And I think that's what make the kind of dynamics of this whole thing so strange and sensitive and you know, all the emotions and fascinating. And fascinating, that being the most important adjective there, I think. Well, this has been been quite a foray into the European Commission. We will be having words with Ursula about our particular feelings or maybe send her a link to this particular podcast as well as some projection into 2026. Please do let us know in the comments if you totally disagree or agree. We love to see your thoughts and we do read all of them, of course, but any final thoughts before we wrap this up?
- [49:37]
Dan Caesar
No, I think it's time to recharge the batteries, have a bit of a break and we'll be back on the Pulse podcast with lots of other fully charged and everything electric content and events in 2026. But yeah, I think, I think it's going to be the most interesting year yet.
- [49:54]
Imogen Bogle
Well, we have two last bits of content that'll be going out before the end of the year. Following this podcast, we'll have our Monday podcast going out on Monday. We have one final episode that Elliot filmed with us that'll be going out on Tuesday. Do look out for those, but certainly from us. Thank you so much for supporting the show this year. Thank you so much for sharing all of your thoughts and commenting and subscribing and sharing with friends and all that's left to say is Merry Christmas. And if you have been, thank you for listening and watching.