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Everything Electric Podcast
Tesla Drop Standards! EVs Prop Up EU car sales? American Irrelevance?
00:31:16
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- [00:00]
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Imogen Bogle
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- [01:07]
Imogen Bogle
Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Pulse Podcast. The podcast where we delve into the life and death decade of the automotive industry. You're joined, as always by myself, Imogen Bogle and Dan Caesar, CEO of Fully Charged Show. Hi Dan, how are you doing?
- [01:24]
Dan Caesar
I'm really well, thank you. It's not long since I've saw you. I saw you in Southampton last week. I'm sure we'll come on to onto that. But how have you been?
- [01:31]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah, not bad. Do you know what, before this podcast, I was like, when we've seen each other recently, when was it? But when you're out and about all the time, sort of all of the days kind of meld into each other. But yeah, I've been good. I went to Paris last week to see Fabrice Kambaliv to talk about their small car strategy. Europe's Kei Car. Why they're still looking at hybrids, which was fabulous. And then as you say, we met in a rather gloomy Southampton. It was a very, very gray day, but to see some exciting stuff. So that was good. How about you?
- [02:06]
Dan Caesar
Yes, I mean, I think I've been sort of getting my head down. Unfortunately, when it comes to Fully Charged show and everything we do, there is quite a lot of work to be done. I'm not saying that you do all the glamour bits, but I mean, certainly in the engine room. Oh no, I can't say that can I in the be electric heart of everything electric and fully charged. So there's a lot of work going on for our plans for this year, including our live shows, including all the episodes and podcasts and some other little projects as well that we're. We're working on. So it's a busy time and just keeping up to date with the news of what's going on the industry as well. So we can recount that here on the Pulse podcast because it must be difficult if you're in the market really to keep up. Every day there are new breaking stories.
- [02:55]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah. And you know what? I find that whenever I have a shoot day, which is approximately three days a week, and then I come back and I've obviously come back to my. To my inbox and I'm like, God, you know, it's been 24 hours and yet I feel so far behind. So let alone people who are trying to decipher this industry, we're literally paged to be on top of these things. But for anyone who's observing, it's. It's an overwhelming space to inhabit.
- [03:21]
Dan Caesar
Very, very fast changing, very uncertain. But I'm sure we'll come on to some of that.
- [03:26]
Imogen Bogle
Well, we have three stories for you today. We're talking Tesla controversially, we're talking EV sales, and we're talking about a really interesting newsletter from Michael Dunn. So all of that to come. But first, a very quick advert break.
- [03:41]
Dan Caesar
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- [04:08]
Imogen Bogle
Right, story number one, as ever, there is an actual headline. And then there is a Dan Caesar headline, which you are affectionately known in house as Captain Clickbait. And this one was good. I did have a little chuckle to myself. So you have written Tesla drop standards. Tell us more.
- [04:29]
Dan Caesar
Well, hopefully that got people intrigued. And you mentioned controversially, when it comes to Tesla, we're not going to talk about anything too controversial today. We might get dragged into that. I suppose we're actually going to talk about the cars because a lot of the noise over the last year or so has been about everything other than the cars, you know, a changing business model. And I still have huge affection for Tesla Model 3 in particular. Tesla Model Y obviously sells very well too. And I drove one of those recently, I've probably done over half of my 350,000 electric miles in a Tesla Model 3. So I'm pretty au fait with that car. If I was going to create a Frankenstein's monster of all the EVs driven, quite a lot of Tesla Model 3 elements would make it into that Frankenstein's monster. I mean, it really is, it's a great car and it does some things really, really exceptionally well. And if I was asked, has a car actually matched it yet one of the new evs, I'm not so sure. Definitely in elements like for example, last year had the BYD Seal, which I prefer the look of the BYD Seal, especially the exterior look. I've driven stuff like the Renault 5, the Ionic 5N from Hyundai. What a great car that is to drive driven, you know, a lot of different cars, but for the total package, the Model 3 is extremely compelling. But they have basically removed or dropped their standard range from the Tesla Model 3. So if you just a quick refresh on the the Tesla Model range, as most of us see it, it's obviously been started with Model S, then went to Model X and then Model 3, then Model Y. I'm not going to mentioned the Cybertruck in this particular podcast, but those were the four brand, the four models, the four, the lineup from Tesla and obviously S and X are pretty much finishing. So it's really about 3 and y and they are bestsellers in many markets around the world. So clearly they have been hugely successful. But where do they go from here? I think that is the key point and they've taken the decision so far not to create a more affordable EV in the sense that we might have expected, which is to go for maybe a smaller entry level model. But they've chosen to actually make the Model 3 and the Model Y more affordable to a wider swathe of people. And I can't help thinking that in the short term that's quite clever. In the medium to long term, I do wonder if they have to produce something a bit more compact, more affordable still. But in the meantime they have, as you know, because we were in Southampton, it went to the Tesla Center, a whole load of shipload of Teslas had arrived and were ready for collection. They've effectively now got a rear wheel drive Model three and I believe a Model Y, but it was the Model 3 we were there to see and talk about. And it is a little bit more basic than the existing Model 3, but it's barely noticeable. And yet the price point is considerably Lower. So a huge amount more people now can get in a Model three can experience that and enjoy it. So I think that is, it is quite shrewd in, in the short to medium term, but I still think questions to ask in the, in the longer term.
- [08:02]
Imogen Bogle
Well, I think just to put some numbers on it, we're talking in terms of cost. Let's see, I think, I want to say £37,000 rear wheel drive. Yeah, £37,990. Which, you know, let's be clear, that's not a cheap car, but it does certainly make the Tesla Model 3 that much more accessible to that many more people. And of course we need to remember that so many people are accessing these on lease schemes or via salary sacrifice and then things get super, super compelling. We're talking under £300 per month. And you know, it's amazing because we used to have a Tesla Model 3, we then had a Model Y. But I've been out of a Tesla for maybe two and a half years and I haven't really driven in one. I don't know if that's been deliberate or not, but going back getting into that car, I thought it's just a Tesla, you really wouldn't know that. It's a super basic spec. It feels like an incredibly normal part of the experience, which I do think is smart. And I think as a society we've got so used to a world in which we expect new stuff and new models and yet actually from a business perspective it is far more savvy to do what they are doing.
- [09:16]
Dan Caesar
Yeah, I, I, I definitely was part of that clique that was saying, you know, want a more affordable ev, want a more affordable Tesla. You know, I think that unlocks the mainstream. I think that's obviously where nature bores a vacuum and China is in particular is, is sort of moving into that space. But then again, having said that, Volkswagen Group are going to release the ID Polo and, and the ID one in, in due course. So there's more sort of smaller affordable cars coming. The market's moved a little bit because a lot of people prefer bigger cars. Now the SUV ification, the obesity, obesity epidemic of evs and cars in general has been going on for a long period of time. So I think what they've done is very clever and I think it would make people who thought a Tesla is unaffordable for them suddenly realize that actually it's a good option. I think at the lowest possible rate, which I believe is business contract hire, you can get into one for about £225 per. Now I think that's a 12 months down payment, 36 month term, 8,000 miles. But £225 for a Tesla. And then of course, you know, you're, you're accessing that sort of cheaper, you know, the ability to run a car much more cheaply because you're charging it at home potentially is pretty incredible. If you did the cost of driving electric sort of statistics on what that could save, it's pretty extraordinary. And then allied to the, you know, the excellent supercharger network, it's really, you know, it's really a powerful position. So as I say, I did come away from that thinking this car's hardly any different to one or three as I've driven before. I was expecting when the kind of, the press were labeling it as being more basic, that it would be much more basic, but that really wasn't noticeable because it's still built around, still the same, same car, effectively it's still built around the same software system. So that was really good. And we, you know, for, for those of you listening, Imogen and I drove around her old stomping ground of, of Southampton with her pointing out memorable landmarks and we were chatting about the, the car, but the car was kind of just unobtrusive part of that conversation. It just did exactly what it was supposed to do. It performed really well. It had all the kind of features I would, I would expect. So I thought that was, that was interesting. I think it's really hard nowadays to, to talk about Tesla without sort of polarizing opinion. But if, if, if you haven't got a strong opinion about, you know, its CEO or, or, or some of the other aspects of the business, I would say the cars are still phenomenal. And, and that's the, that's the reality of where we are. I'd also say that there's tons of misinformation about the EV transition in general and Tesla probably suffers from that quite badly. And so people are looking very eagle eyed at the sales statistics of EVs in general, but Tesla specifically and how they are doing. And they have gone from, you know, having huge ambitions of selling something like 10, 10 million EVs a year to a more sort of steady, steady state of sort of best part of 2 million cars per annum. But every time there's a drop in their numbers, people are kind of shouting and hollering about it. So for example, in January, the numbers were reported by a number of tabloids as being really, really low. But Tesla actually Does their deliveries very differently. They actually have a big number of vehicles come into country at the end of each quarter and so logically, January figures are always quite low compared and actually that's not the way to measure them. So the reality is that they're actually holding up quite well sales of Tesla Threes and wise in the UK and elsewhere. And additionally, it's boom time if you want to get a used, approved Tesla. It's incredibly compelling. So I think from our perspective, it's important to point out that these are still great cars and they're a great option amongst a plethora now of different EV options. But yeah, I mean, what is there to say? The car was just like a normal Tesla Model 3, but cheaper.
- [13:35]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah, exactly that. And Craig, David, if you're listening, which I know you probably are, we drove past Spring Hill Primary School, pointed that out, where him and I are both alumni of. So, Mrs. Norman, if you're also listening, hello. But yeah, I think one thing I would say is that I'm sure you get asked the same questions from various friends and family members of oh, I'm thinking about an ev, what should I buy? And is Tesla any good? And I think Tesla's are good. I think they are good cars. You know what you're getting, you know they're going to be reliable, you know that they're going to work. And if people don't particularly care about cars, it's a great option. But for me, they will always lack a little bit of je ne sais quoi, a little bit of character. And obviously, you know, this is why cars also come down to like being a totally emotional and irrational person purchase. Because, you know, for me, Teslas don't have that character. But I will still say fantastic cars and especially at that price point as well.
- [14:37]
Dan Caesar
I think that whole debate is, you know, do electric vehicles have as much character as combustion engine vehicles is quite an interesting one. I think it's, you know, rooted in our culture and our psychology, you know, in billions and billions of pounds worth of advertising to evoke certain feelings in us, which often revolve around the noise of the car, the smell. And I think what Renault's done with its kind of, you know, retro futuristic look at the Renault 5 is, is very clever because it opens up quite a broad audience, potentially of petrol heads to electro heads and, and everything in between. I think what Tesla's done is it's created a market and a market which, you know, there's lots of other cars now that look quite like Teslas I, I personally I quite like the look of most new evs and so I, I, I do, I do like Tesla. But I take your point. I mean there is now so much choice. When we first started doing fully charged live as it was back in the day, now everything electric shows around the world, there was only literally 10 cars to, to choose from. Now you're so spoiled for, for choice. But yeah, I'd certainly say I'm still waiting for a car to, to sort of make me the, the, the, the Model 3. But there are plenty of cars that are right up against it now. It's fascinating to, to, to see that market change. So yes, it's a, it's a one of the cars I'd recommend. But I have the brilliant luxury now of when people say which car should I get? What are you after? What shape, you know, what, what's your, what your needs? And I can recommend often four or five different cars for each different person's requirement. And that's what I do now. And, and I often say come and test drive them at everything electric shows as and contrast. But no, the market is transformed and Tesla and now China have played a huge, huge role in that.
- [16:36]
Imogen Bogle
Oh, 100%. And I would say any car brands that are listening, if you'd like to gift me a Volvo EX60, I would gladly take it off your hands. That's what I will say on my current personal preference of EVs. Shall we move to our second story?
- [16:55]
Dan Caesar
Lets.
- [17:03]
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- [17:11]
Dan Caesar
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- [17:34]
Dan Caesar
well, we're going to talk about sales of cars, all powertrains in Europe and how sales of EVs are actually doing quite well. So obviously the EU has been under pressure to kind of slightly dilute its zero emission vehicle ambitions. We even heard from one car exec in Europe who said that there's no natural demand for EVs. We've seen all sorts of headlines saying that the EV era is over. And every time I see something like that I pull what remaining hair I have from my head. Because actually there are mountains and mountains and mountains of data that show actually that battery EVs are doing pretty well. Plug in hybrid vehicles are doing pretty well. It's actually the rest of the market that is in decline. And so January sales figures from across Europe, which includes, by the way, Britain, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland for the purpose of these figures, show that car sales are down 3.5% but actually battery EV sales are up 14. So my question is actually our battery EVs the bright spot in a difficult marketplace? I, I think they are. And you know, just because one American president doesn't like electrification, for example, we shouldn't all be swayed by that. That is the direction of travel. And you can see it again in these, in these sales figures. What's interesting is that petrol sales are down quite significantly. So I'm talking here about pure petrol cars as opposed to, to mild hybrids, but actually more and more people are getting into a hybrid or actual electric vehicle of some sort. But actually pure petrol sales were down, I think 49 in France, 30 in Germany. As people move towards these electrified models. Now, I'm not having the electrified term, I, I really only believe that battery EVs are the only true electric vehicle. But I am quite happy to concede that cars with a plug are at least going in the right direction. They're getting people more comfortable with that mindset. But back onto the subject of who, what cars would you recommend? I only ever recommend a battery EV to anyone who asked me and I do huge mileage, so let's not let that be be an excuse. So I think it's really, really interesting to see going on in the marketplace. BYD sales up by 165% year on year, January to January. So they are making huge inroads and Toyota one of the biggest fallers. I'll leave that there.
- [20:23]
Imogen Bogle
So I'm just going to turn my head for one second to look at my bookshelf. I think it's up there somewhere. But there's a really good book which I'd highly recommend to everyone in this audience called Good Data, Bad Data. It's written by a data scientist and her whole sort of thing is that data is only valuable if you can understand its context and what it's being compared to and how it was measured. I think we've seen so many headlines that allude to there's no demand for EVs. Demand is declining, but it's never given in the context of the overall car market, irrespective of powertrain. I just feel that journalists should be held to a higher account of if you're going to give a stat, give its context and give the counter, or at least something to that effect, because it's just annoying, especially in this world of so much misinformation, that if you have a stat in there on its own, you believe that it's a trustworthy source and this is where you actually understand the nuance.
- [21:25]
Dan Caesar
Yeah, I'm guilty here. In picking up a story which is about January, you know, we often see stories that you know are about one month and a negative, and we say that's too short a window to make any judgment. You're just using one month's figures to support your argument, whether that's right or wrong. So I'm guilty of that here, I suppose. But I am very much all over the trend lines in all of the major and some of the minor markets in the world. And generally the the trend line is battery evs are on the up and up. Maybe not at the pace that some would have predicted or would have liked, but they are up. They are the bright spot within the market. But credit to Reuters because it didn't really use the word electrification when it said why the car market is struggling. And I don't think it is the main reason. I think it's one of many, many factors. And it actually cited trade tariffs.
- [22:23]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah.
- [22:24]
Dan Caesar
And increased competition as the two main drivers. And let's be honest, when we say increased competition, that is code for more Chinese entrance. That is what is happening around the world. But the Chinese, if you look at the numbers, they're not just selling battery evs. And if European policymakers thought there was a way of keeping the Chinese out by hamstringing the pure electric vehicle market, they have been very, very wrong on that count because the Chinese are working across multiple powertrains as they try and build up brand loyalty in Europe, UK and all around the world. So it isn't just about electrification, it's about a shift that's taken place in geopolitics, really. That's the way the trade tariffs and the increased competition, it's all about that America versus China dynamic. And, and you know, that's what's going on here. And yes, we are moving towards more electric cars, but that is just part of the story. That is not the story, much to the chagrin of various headline writers. I think,
- [23:32]
Imogen Bogle
unless we forget, there are, what is it, 160 OEMs in China like they are. There is fierce competition within those OEMs because not all of them are going to survive. So.
- [23:47]
Dan Caesar
So we've got our own Chinese car expert, Elliot Richards. There's a, there's a guy who I know, I feel like I know him, I don't really know him. Mark Rainford, who's also an automotive expert. He'd say that number 160 brands is, is quite inflated. Actually it's quite a lot lower than that. But to your point, there, there are, there are a lot and it is, it is very competitive. And yes, we do consolidate, sea consolidation, but we can see other car companies are struggling as well. It's just not just the new ones, it's a lot of the legacy companies to reinvent themselves, to consolidate, shrink. You know, even some are now starting to move into the defense industry to fill capacity, manufacturing capacity. I'm going to say nothing more about that, my feelings about that. But you know, the reality is it's a fast changing market and you can moan and complain or you can just get on, read the reality and get on with, with changing as well. Because if you, if you waste time complaining and moaning, you, you're going to find yourself in potentially quite a lot of trouble.
- [24:49]
Imogen Bogle
Well, talking of complaining and moaning, I think that's a perfect segue for our third story.
- [25:01]
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- [26:02]
Dan Caesar
yes. So we're going to talk a bit about American irrelevance. I think we're not going to talk about this for too long. I know we have quite a lot of our audiences from America and I feel absolutely compelled to say I know the majority of Americans are probably tearing their hair out at what's going on in a number of different areas. And there are plenty of people who are very pro battery EV in America. So I just don't want our American audience to feel like it's being picked upon. But the reality is that there was a fantastic. I think it's a substack, isn't it? I think it's a blog by a gentleman called Michael Dunn and we're hoping we can get on to the Everything Electric podcast at some point. He really is fantastic commentator on what's going on in the market. And his latest article said, the car world is going electric without America. And I think that's, it's such a powerful piece and it's a crying shame, but unfortunately the likes of Ford and General Motors are having to pivot back towards combustion engine because of the vibe shift in, in the US but actually there's a coming misalignment with Canada, for example, which is going to now let some Chinese brands in, is going to start, you know, upping the ante on EV rebates and the rest of it. So it feels like America is kind of building a wall around itself and it doesn't feel like that will end well. But did you read the article? What did you think?
- [27:44]
Imogen Bogle
I did. And first of all, he is such a brilliant writer, so succinct, so to the point. And I really admire anyone who has that ability to distill these very complex, ultimately very geopolitically motivated themes into something that's, you know, you can read in two minutes. So I doff my cap to Michael Dunn, but what he's sort of saying is that yes, there has been this vibe shift in the us but what's the undertone driving that vibe shift? And of course, when we're talking about electric vehicles, what we're also talking about is energy security within a country and how electricity is being generated within that country. We're also talking about the raw materials that power not just those electric vehicles, but indeed anything that's required for energy security, for example, solar panels, wind turbines, but also other very important things like defense, like satellites. So the EV supply chain, as we know, is very much dominated in China. But that means that also the supply chain for those other very important things of life is also very dominated in China. And so there is this total disconnect between actually, if the US Goes hell for leather to encourage electric vehicles, it's also encouraging that supply chain in China to mature even further. So the US Also do need to create time to build their own sort of defenses for. Want a better word? So it's kind of like, I always think it's interesting of, yes, there is this shift, but what is the undertone driving that shift? And when you understand it, you're like, it's totally unsurprising that there's this huge anti EV narrative and they've become highly politicized, leveraging that kind of divisive politics that exists in the US in order to drive the market in a certain direction. And Michael Dan summarizes that much better than I have done.
- [29:36]
Dan Caesar
Well, you know, it's whether you believe you can turn back time or not, you know, the future is coming, new technology is coming. You know, you, you can't put your finger in a dam necessarily. So Biden, remember him?
- [29:49]
Imogen Bogle
Yeah.
- [29:50]
Dan Caesar
You know, he, he put a lot of stimulus in to send the market in a certain direction, as did Obama actually, before Trump's first term. And Trump has undone it now twice. And I feel for the car execs in America more than anywhere else, really, because they don't know whether they're coming or going and they're having to reverse to, to deal with some of this kind of political fallout. And it has become so political. I mean, I think the reality is, as you say, Michael Dunn is a great writer. So I think if we leave the final words with him, I'm going to read our brief excerpt. How did we get here? The easy answer that American consumers simply never wanted electric vehicles is a lazy one. The harder truth is that Detroit's retreat from EVs is the result of a spectacular cascade of failures by automakers who never took the transition seriously, dealers who actively undermined it, and a political environment that turned the simple act of buying an electric car into a toxic political statement. That's the sort of thing you can read in Michael Dunn's substack. He's super articulate, but fundamentally the rest of the world is going electric and America will have to confront that at some point.
- [31:07]
Imogen Bogle
So I would just leave. Well, this is going to sound like a major tangent, but I met an engineering company yesterday and they are working on actually most of London's famous buildings, especially historic ones, and decarbonizing them and ensuring that these historic buildings that have stood for 400 years, in some instances, maybe even longer, are being brought up to speed to survive in this new world and to survive in a really effective, efficient way. And I'm like, mate, these 400 year old buildings are electrifying. Do you think, do you think that's showing the direction of travel. I think it might be.
- [31:49]
Dan Caesar
Yeah, I think we, we say it often on this, on this podcast. And, and the reality is that things are changing. You know, you can put your head in the sand and be an ostrich about it, but things are still going to change. And, and if you don't, if you don't address that, then it is problematic. So with very, with great sadness, it's really sad to see America kind of seeding even more ground in this area where it needed to be doing more battery, supply chain, all those other things in America. As hard as that is, managing decline seems to be the thing that's been chosen by the American administration at the moment. And I hope that doesn't too profoundly impact the American people.
- [32:30]
Imogen Bogle
Well, I'm looking at my other screen because I want to confirm the exact date. Here we go. So on the 20th of April, we will be releasing a podcast with a man called Mike Murphy. For those who are long term listeners, you remember that I interviewed him maybe two years ago now and he has an organization called EV Politics. He is a Republican, although anti Trump, and he sort of positions EVs as these, like, huge enablers to furthering economies and they should represent something that Republicans absolutely should be behind. So I'm going to be putting my questions to him and I have no doubt that that's going to be an absolutely fascinating conversation. And if you have any specific questions, then please write them in the comments and I'll make sure to put them to Mike. Well, you need to get to London. I need to write a script, so we should definitely leave it there. As ever, thank you so much for joining us for this podcast. Before you go, if you could do us the honour of liking subscribing, sharing with a friend or all of the above. We genuinely really appreciate it and it does have a really meaningful impact on the way that we grow as a channel. So we would be very grateful, but that's all that we've got time for. Thank you so much for listening and watching.