Why Electrification Could Cut Global Energy Use in Half!

Summary

Everything Electric Podcast: "Why Electrification Could Cut Global Energy Use in Half!"

Host: Robert Llewellyn (Fully Charged Show)
Guest: Professor Jan Rosenau (Professor of Energy and Climate Policy, University of Oxford)
Release Date: April 20, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the transformative potential of electrification for global energy consumption, exploring why and how switching to clean electricity could reduce humanity’s total energy demand by half. Host Robert Llewellyn speaks to Professor Jan Rosenau, an expert in energy transitions and policy, about the realities, misconceptions, and surprising opportunities arising from electrification. Their lively discussion weaves together energy security, technological innovation, economic drivers, the global situation—including recent crises—youth perspectives, and key challenges for the years ahead.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Global Energy Fragility & The Push to Transition

• The episode opens with reflections on recent fuel crises, underscoring the “fragile fuel system on the planet” and the urgent need to transition away from fossil fuels.
• Recent energy shocks (2022 and current) are compared: previously focused on gas, now driven by oil disruptions ([04:18]).
  • Quote: "It can go wrong very, very quickly and very, very easily." — Robert ([03:46])
  • Jan: "Now it's oil probably a bit more than gas … So oil is 20% [of LNG] but that's global. So it's a much more significant impact on oil." ([04:29])

2. Geopolitics & Short-Term Vs. Long-Term Response

• France has announced a major, ambitious electrification strategy, setting itself apart from countries focused on short-term oil/gas solutions ([05:28]).
• Most governments prioritize securing more fossil fuels over long-term transition strategies, leading to a cycle of recurring crises ([06:05]).
  • Quote: “Helps in the short term. ... we're going to have the same discussion maybe in four years time when the next crisis [hits].” — Jan ([06:04])

3. The Scale of Electrification & The Energy Equation

• Only ~20% of current energy use is electricity; 80% is mobility (oil) and heat (mainly fossil fuels) ([08:47]).
• Core Insight: If electrification reaches 70–80% of the economy, global energy needs could be cut in half due to the higher efficiency of electric technologies ([10:28]).
  • Quote: “A heat pump is just the same [as EVs—far more efficient]. … If you did electrification to, let's say, 70—maybe even 80%—of the economy, that would roughly half the amount of energy we would need globally.” — Jan ([10:28])
• 2/3 of all primary energy is currently wasted, mostly as heat in combustion processes.

4. Electric Vehicle Efficiency & Public Perception

• Electric vehicles (EVs) offer dramatically higher energy efficiency—up to 3–4 times more efficient than ICE vehicles ([12:18]).
• Misinformation and delayed perceptions often challenge the adoption of clean technologies ([33:33]).
  • Quote: “Can't beat that without...unless you’re in a cigar on a track…” — Robert on electric vehicle efficiency ([12:19])

5. Impact of Geopolitics & Tech Adoption (with Focus on China)

• China: Simultaneously the world's largest coal burner and the world leader in renewable expansion; last year’s doubling of global solar capacity was almost entirely due to China ([14:15]).
• Chinese power sector emissions are starting to decline, signaling a potentially positive trajectory if current trends continue.

6. Youth Engagement & Mindset Shifts

• Students are pragmatic and focused on practical solutions and startups, not ideological debates ([15:30]).
  • Quote: “They actually, I think they get it and they're often much more pragmatic … not that interested in ideological debates. They might just be working on how to smart charge vehicles or a startup for solar.” — Jan ([15:30])
• The innovation pace and hands-on involvement by young professionals is highlighted as a driver for hope and progress ([17:07]).

7. Technology Advancements, Cost, & Market Dynamics

• Continuous innovation in EVs leads to faster, cheaper, higher-capacity batteries ([19:12]).
• High oil prices/international crises are driving public uptake in both EVs and electric heating ([19:39]).
• The economics behind renewables and storage are increasingly favorable, often independent of changing political climates ([39:19]).

8. Data Centers, AI & The Power Grid

• Data centers do strain electricity grids regionally but are often overhyped as a threat. They constitute only about 8% of projected global electricity demand increase to 2030 ([25:25]).
• Novel approaches, such as demand flexibility and heat reuse from data centers (e.g., Finland), illustrate the system-wide benefits possible ([24:19]).
  • Quote: “Data centers for flexibility... Your ChatGPT query could go to a data center where there’s more renewables and less congestion.” — Jan ([24:20])

9. The Realities of Materials, Mining & Recycling

• The availability of raw materials isn’t the main physical constraint; extraction impacts and circular economy strategies (recycling, re-use) are paramount ([28:39]).
• Companies like Redwood Materials are now achieving 95–97% recycling rates for key battery materials ([31:09]).
• Societal disconnect from material origins is a challenge for informed decision-making ([31:54]).
  • Quote: “Everything we use is either dug up or grown.” ([31:51])

10. Addressing Misinformation & Outdated Criticisms

• Negative narratives concerning cobalt, lithium, capacity, and grid threats are increasingly outdated as technology rapidly advances ([32:49]).
• Active misinformation campaigns, often linked to legacy industries, remain an obstacle to clean energy progress ([33:34]).
• Resistance is increasingly psychological, not technical.

11. Hype Technologies: Hydrogen, SMRs, Fusion, CCS

• Hydrogen for mainstream transportation, small modular reactors (SMRs), carbon capture and storage, and nuclear fusion are “not viable in the medium term” ([35:32]).
  • No commercial SMRs currently operate.
  • Fusion remains perpetually "30 years away."
  • Carbon capture may play a niche role (residual industrial emissions) but cannot underpin a global energy strategy ([36:52]).
  • Quote: “You can't construct an energy strategy around technology that's not yet available and proven.” — Jan ([36:52])

12. Economics as the Deciding Force

• The falling cost of renewables and storage (especially solar and batteries, e.g., in Australia and Pakistan) is now driving adoption more than policy ([39:19], [40:20]).
• Technology is becoming affordable enough (sometimes dramatically so) that mass market, grassroots adoption is feasible, even in less-developed regions.

13. The Special Case of Industrial Electrification & Heat Storage

• Upcoming frontiers include high-temperature industrial heat, with “heat batteries” for industrial applications (from food production to paper, up to 1500°C) ([48:45]).
  • Potential to use a diverse range of materials (sand, bricks, waste) in these batteries.
  • Industrial electrification is “the next big thing.”

14. The Population Paradox

• Discussion on shifting population trends: global birth rates plummeting, challenging earlier fears about “population bombs” ([47:07]).

15. The Role of Optimism in Change

• Despite slow global trends, massive progress—and a capacity for surprise—should fuel optimism.
  • Quote: “You have to be optimistic, otherwise you might as well just give up … We have all the ingredients we need.” — Jan ([42:24])
  • Quote: “Optimism is almost a tool … to effectuate change in the world.” — Jan ([42:24])

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Memorable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• The Core Premise:
  “If we did electrification to, let’s say, 70—maybe even 80%—of the entire economy, that would roughly half the amount of energy we would need globally.” — Jan ([10:28])

• On Waste:
  “It’s about two thirds of all the energy inputs we waste ... just waste heat goes back into the atmosphere.” — Jan ([11:13])

• On Repeating Energy Crises:
  “We’re going to have the same discussion maybe in four years’ time when the next crisis.” — Jan ([06:04])

• On Chinese Renewable Growth:
  “Last year the global total of solar panels installed doubled and it was all in China.” — Robert ([13:44])

• On Youth Engagement:
  “They actually … get it and they’re often much more pragmatic ... might just be working on writing the next code to work out how to smart charge vehicles.” — Jan ([15:30])

• On Economic Forces:
  “It’s cheaper, in Australia where coal is sort of free, it’s still cheaper to use solar and batteries.” — Robert ([39:52])

• On Battery Recycling:
  “They’re talking about 95 to 97% of all the materials.” — Jan ([31:09])

• On Challenges to Adoption:
  “It’s not so much technological, I think it’s psychological.” — Jan ([34:11])

• On Hype Technologies:
  “Fusion is always 30 years away.” — Jan ([35:44])

• On Optimism:
  “You have to believe in the possibility of change and that means you have to be optimistic.” — Jan ([42:24])

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Notable Segments & Timestamps

• [04:18] – Energy system fragility & oil/gas crisis
• [08:47] – What electrification could achieve; breaking down “electricity vs. energy”
• [10:28] – How 70-80% electrification could cut total energy needs in half
• [11:53] – Waste in current energy systems
• [13:44] – China’s solar revolution and global emissions impact
• [15:30] – Student/youth perspective on the transition & innovation
• [17:07] – New skills and tools: AI, coding, and changing mindsets in energy engineering
• [19:12] – Advancements and price drops in electric vehicles
• [24:19] – Data centers, grid impacts, and recycling heat for district heating (Finland)
• [28:39] – Battery materials, mining, environmental responsibility, and necessity of recycling
• [32:49] – Changing criticisms of EVs/renewables and persistent myths
• [35:32] – Deep dive: viability and timelines for hydrogen, SMR, fusion, and CCS
• [39:19] – Economics driving change: solar, storage, and grassroots adoption globally
• [48:45] – Heat batteries & industrial process electrification as the “next big thing”
• [52:25] – Domestic storage: is it worth getting a battery without solar?

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Conclusion

The episode offers an accessible yet deeply informed look at the coming energy transition, anchored by Professor Rosenau’s expertise and optimism and Robert Llewellyn’s candid curiosity. The main message: electrification—especially if extended to transport and heat—has the power to drastically cut waste and reduce society’s energy demands. The transition is as much about technology and economics as about mindsets, policy, and truthful information. While hurdles remain—resistance from legacy industries, myths, the need for smarter grids, and industrial electrification—the technological and financial pieces are falling into place faster than most realize.

Final Note:
“You have to believe in the possibility of change ... The question is how fast can we scale.” — Jan Rosenau ([42:24])

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Transcript

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[Podcast Host 1]

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Everything Electric podcast.

[Podcast Host 2]

Little bit different this week.

[Podcast Host 1]

This is definitely an audio podcast. You can put that lack of video feed down to the interviewer on this particular episode.

[Podcast Host 2]

I'm not going to name that interviewer. I don't want to shame them. They're already shamed enough as it is.

[Podcast Host 1]

But anyway, the important thing is that the audio is brilliant and the audio works and you can hear because that's

[Podcast Host 2]

really what you need to do.

[Podcast Host 1]

You need to be able to hear

[Podcast Host 2]

what we were talking about. Oh, that's just given it away that

[Podcast Host 1]

I am the interviewer who screwed up the video. Forgot to press record.

[Podcast Host 2]

Anyway, who I'm talking to this, this for this episode. It has been on the show before,

[Podcast Host 1]

but a while ago, about four or five years ago.

[Podcast Host 2]

Extraordinary man really. You know, if you want to find

[Podcast Host 1]

someone that genuinely has a deep, profound understanding of the energy transition, of the impact of burning 105 million barrels of

[Podcast Host 2]

oil a day, you know, all those

[Podcast Host 1]

basic things that are sort of in the background of the fully charged show

[Podcast Host 2]

and everything Electric and everything we've been doing for the last 16 years, he's

[Podcast Host 1]

like right at the front. So today we'll be talking to Professor

[Podcast Host 2]

Jan Rosenau and I just want to

[Podcast Host 1]

read out because I'm not going to

[Podcast Host 2]

remember this his who he is.

[Podcast Host 1]

So he, Jan, is the professor of Energy and Climate Policy at the Environmental Change Institute and the Jackson Senior Research Fellow at Oriel College Oxford, which is where we recorded it and it looked beautiful and some stupid idiot didn't press record.

[Podcast Host 2]

Anyway, moving on. He is also a Senior Associate at

[Podcast Host 1]

the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership at the University of Cambridge and an affiliate faculty at the University of Sussex. He's kind of quite well connected, so I'm not going to waffle on. I'm just going to ask you please do check out the show notes here,

[Podcast Host 2]

which will also include a link to our live events. One of them is coming up fairly

[Podcast Host 1]

soon in Harrogate in the central north area of the uk and the next one after that is in Cheltenham, which is in the central south west ish area. Before we appear at Twickenham much later

[Podcast Host 2]

in the year before we then go

[Podcast Host 1]

to Sydney, Sydney for the last show of this year's tranche of live events. Please do subscribe to Everything Electric show

[Podcast Host 2]

and do check out our other channel, Everything Electric Cars.

[Podcast Host 1]

In case you haven't seen that, you've stumbled across this. It's a much bigger channel and that's

[Podcast Host 2]

been the one that's been going for 16 years.

[Podcast Host 1]

And that's enough. No more waffle from this old fool. Press record, please. Welcome to the Everything Electric podcast, Professor Jan Rosnow. Our three free YouTube channels on EVs and clean energy tech are funded by our fun packed test drive tastic events in the north west and Greater London and our events down Under. Next up, Everything Electric heads to Harrogate and then Cheltenham. All events include a B2B EV day and commercial vehicles too.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yes. So this is something, I've actually written something about, but it is very pertinent to the current global situation. But how many reminders do we need that it might be a good idea to speed up the transition away from burning fossil fuel? Is the sort of. It's not really a question, it's just a statement. But you know, I think it does feel like there's been a. Everyone's had a reminder that we have a very fragile fuel system on the planet. It can go wrong very, very quickly and very, very easily. Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And. And it doesn't feel that long ago. Right. I mean, 2022, we had almost exactly the same discussions. I think the difference is that this time it's oil and gas.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And last time it was mainly gas. And yeah, now it's oil probably a bit more than gas because it's, it's about 20% of the LNG, the liquefied natural gas that's going through the Strait of Hormuz. But that's only a fraction of total gas demand. So oil is 20% and that's. But that's global. So it's. That's a much more significant impact on oil. Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And I mean it's certainly because I have a lot of contact with Australia, it has a. It's had a very big impact on that. I think they've now already kind of leveled it out. They've managed to get it. This is from petrol. Yeah, gasoline and diesel. And they had, they were closing garages in Australia because they had no fuel, not because of any regulation or prices. It was just like, we haven't got anything yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And people are starting and there's no real shortage, but no, it's massive. And the, the, the deja vu moment I think especially in Europe where we've been so affected by, by the crisis is, is, is huge. Be interesting to see, I mean what happens in the coming months.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I mean have you seen what France has just announced last week? So they have, I think are the only country that I've seen that set out a sort of long term strategy for how to transition away from oil and gas and have an electrification strategy. They want to spend billions in accelerating that transition. Very ambitious and forward looking. But most of the other discussions at least I've seen were all about can we maybe find some more oil and gas in the North Sea or can we find a new supplier, can we find a way of cutting taxes or subsidizing prices which may help in the short term.

[Podcast Host 2]

Helps in the short term.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

It's just we're going to have the same Discussion maybe in 4 years time when the next crisis.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah, I mean it's a very small band aid on a very large wound basically, isn't it? It's not going to solve it.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

That's right. The.

[Podcast Host 2]

Hang on, log jam because it's something you said there was. Oh yes it is the, the, that argument to increase, you know, North Sea oil and gas. I mean there is some left but there's not, there's not that much as far as I understand it. It's not like a massive supply. Yeah, but it is that the lack of understanding that it's, it's going to be sold on the global market. Yeah, it's not going to be just, you know, that's our gas. Yeah, but it's actually probably going to Brazil or somewhere, you know, because that's who's going to pay for it.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I had exactly that discussion on a BBC Radio 5 discussion. There was someone from the industry that, representing the industry, oil and gas in the North Sea. And that question was, was put to me like will it actually bring down prices? And my response was well not, not significantly because the quantity will be minuscule compared to the global oil and gas market. So that's not going to bring down prices unless you make assumptions about companies selling at a significant UK discount or

[Podcast Host 2]

you know, nationalize them.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

But, but, but those scenarios are rather unlikely. So there's not going to be a big price difference. I think there is some sort of validity in saying well this will have energy security benefits because those real shortages, you know, where you really can't get Energy into the uk. Of course that will have an, you have an advantage there. Yeah, but, but it certainly has a price, price benefit that will be of any significance for the UK consumer.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah, and I mean surely though, you know, like today is a good example. Thank. Thankfully it's an ideal day. I just checked before I left. We were 56% wind, just wind. 56% of our electricity was coming from wind. But that is actually one of the things I wanted to talk about was that area of the kind of feasibility, the, the, the enormity of the project to say we're going to be using fossil fuels in 100 years, but we might not be burning it. That's what I'm hoping, you know, that we're using it for everything else. It's very useful material, but the, the colossal scale of what we need to do and how, I mean, I, I can't remember what, what it is. It's around about 105 million barrels a day that we, that the human race consume on the planet.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

You go, that's.

[Podcast Host 2]

Whatever you do with that. That's a lot of stuff that we're getting through. But I mean, I just. So it's the, I'm sort of hoping you can explain the, what, the plausibility of reducing that use by a huge amount and how long that's going to take.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I mean maybe I start by pointing out that electricity is only about 20. Exactly. And because it's, it's, it's often, but people often assume electricity is energy and that's kind of, that is basically everything that we talk about when it comes to energy. And it' only 20% and, and, and people in, in the energy space often like to focus on electricity because that's where a lot of things have happened. And we base our coal in the uk, we have a lot of renewables now in a lot of countries, batteries. And that's all great, but yeah, that's only 20% and, and the other 80%. That is basically two things. It's, it's mobility and, and that's primarily oil and, and it is heat in industry and buildings. Yeah, that's where that 80% is simplifying. There's of course sort of other cases, but that's where the majority of energy is being used and replacing that is going to be the challenge for the next couple of decades. I mean we've sort of used the last two decades to clean up electricity and done that pretty pretty well now. I think there's a pathway towards full decarbonization or near full decarbonization in many countries. But when it comes to the other 80%, we're just beginning. And, and to answer your question about, you know, what, what would that system look like? I mean, electrification is the number one lever that's in all of the scenarios, whether you look at the IPCC or the IEA or the UK government, you know, the Committee on Climate Change, the European Commission academic studies, they all suggest electrification is the main lever.

[Podcast Host 2]

Right.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Even a shell scenario. Right. Take the shell scenarios for decarbonization. They also identify electrification as the primary lever. So if we did electrification to, let's say, 70, maybe even 80% of the entire economy.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

That would roughly half the amount of energy we would need globally. So the effect that electrification has, why, I mean, you cover this many times on the show, Electric vehicles use a fraction of the energy, probably three or four times less in final energy terms than an internal combustion engine vehicle. A heat pump is just the same. So you have these big savings, whereas your fossil fuels, if you burn them, you can never get a more efficient device than if you go electric because you have this waste heat that you can't capture.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah. So that is. So what, what that if you could just transition. Today, the whole world, you know, we stopped using fossil. What's interesting is the actual amount of energy the human race would consume would be lower, much lower.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Half would be about half, which is incredible, isn't it? Yeah. We have a. We have a paper currently under review that hopefully comes out very soon where we have done that thought experiment. We sort of draw a map of the world's energy system today. We identify how much energy is actually wasted. That's. That's another interesting statistic that a lot of people have never heard of. It's about two thirds of all the energy inputs we waste because we can't really use it with the current technologies that we have. And it's just waste heat goes back into the atmosphere. And in the new system that we draw, then as a comparison, you know, that amount of waste is dramatically reduced. And overall we use about half of the energy that we currently use, which is a significant efficiency improvement.

[Podcast Host 2]

Because actually, that's a statistic that I've been trying to use. When I'm describing electric vehicles, you know, you go, oh, what's the range? Oh, it does 220 miles. No, what is the energy equivalent of if, if it could run on petrol? Yeah, this, this, you know, if you could use the petrol to hold electricity and feed it into, say, the car, I've just driven here today that the Nissan micro, it does 158 miles to the gallon. That's the equivalent energy use. So that gives a very good.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Can't beat that with a. Without.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean, no, not unless you're in a little cigar. Yeah. On a track. Yeah. One of those sort of experimental vehicles. But that, I mean, because I think that I'm, I'm feeling it and I certainly know a lot of people I know are feeling sort of a, a mild but increasing desperation that, that, you know, a war. It, it, it distracts from the Epstein files, for one thing, which is one of its aims, I'm sure, but it also distracts from everything else. You know, you think, oh, well, climb. I've forgotten about climate change because I'm worried about World War iii. I mean, I don't think climate change is saying, oh, I won't, I'll wait for a bit, yeah, while you have a war, and then I'll kick it.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

It's completely absent, isn't it, from the discussion, which is not in the. It's, it's not in the mix. It's fascinating where we have this conversation, almost as if climate change was never a problem, will ever be a problem, and just talk about, well, can we just replace one supplier with another, rather than thinking about, actually, is this an opportunity to speed up the transition? And in fact, that's, I think, I mean, you know, countries that I mentioned, France, but also China and other countries, are deliberately doing, because they see that there are these huge geopolitical risks of relying on energy imports, which is, Is not a good strategy in the long run.

[Podcast Host 2]

And I mean, that was a thing that I think we, you know, I certainly became aware of when I was in China, but that sort of argument about China, oh, well, they're burning loads of coal to make your fancy electric car or whatever, you know, or the batteries or whatever.

[Podcast Host 1]

And they are.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean, there's no question they do have a lot. They're the biggest coal burners we have.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

But my goodness, they're ramping that down because they don't want to burn, they don't want to pay for the coal. And they're, they're. I mean, that was, I think it was. I'm right in saying last year the global total of solar panels installed doubled and it was all in China. Yeah. They just literally put as much as we'd ever put anywhere in one year. I mean, it's just mind blowing. When you do see. I did see one solar farm that was just over it was just, I don't know what it even was. It looked like a solar mountain.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, just. And emissions have now started to come down and especially in the power sector in China. And yes, there's still more coal plants being built, but the utilization rate, how many hours in the year they actually run is reducing. And I think there is a trajectory now where you can see how in 5 years, 10 years time there will be significantly fewer emissions in China from electricity. And yeah, still a long way to go, there's no doubt. But I think we reached a point now where you can conceive of China being able to manage decarbonization and given how fast they've been able to scale production of these technologies and adoption, I think it'll be. We'd be surprised, I think probably rather than disappointed because that's the thing.

[Podcast Host 2]

I'm not only thought since I arrived here is my contact with young people is now fairly minimal. Most of my mates are sort of doddery old fools like me. But I'm, you know, you're, you're in contact and discussing these things with students.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And I mean, is there, what is their attitude? I mean, do you. I just intrigued to know if there are young people that are studying here that go, oh, it's all nonsense, it's all a con job and there's no such thing as climate change and, and President Trump is right. Is that an uncommon.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I haven't come across someone like that yet. But, but I'm, of course I can't claim that. I, you know, I've talked put it. No, no, but the people I've, I've spoken to, yeah, they, they actually, I think they get it and they're often much more pragmatic and they're sort of almost not, not that interested in having long ideological debates, but they might just be working on, you know, doing, writing the next code to work out how to smart charge electric vehicles or, you know, be involved in a startup, you know, around solar and batteries or solve the heat pump adoption problem we have in the UK and what have you. And, and no, that, that's, I think that's, that's what, what I'm seeing is much engaged and, and trying to really find a, find a niche in this, in this market, in this sector.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean that's, I think the thing that kind of keeps me going is that, you know, I grew up with a, you know, sort of passionate fascination with internal combustion engines and the loud cars and motor racing and all that stuff. I kind of liked it and then I, then I went through a phase of going something wrong with it. But I'm talking about many, many years ago. But what I find so exciting now is the fact that, you know, 25 years ago, people were using very crude lithium ion batteries and they put them in a box together and then they run a wire to an electric motor.

[Podcast Host 1]

I mean, it's so crude.

[Podcast Host 2]

The very early electric vehicles I saw and the sophistication that's gone on and the battery chemistry and all those things are. There is so much innovation and so much to do in the sense of engineers and scientists. There's a massive job waiting for them.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, I mean, the tools we now have. Yes, so much more powerful. I mean, a lot of the students, they, they use AI technology, of course, to just speed up coding and analysis of data and it's, it's, yeah, it's fascinating. I think they're going to bring a lot of new skills to the market. So people like you and, you and I, who've sort of done this for a long time, I think there's better in a number of ways in doing what we've done for a long time because they, they come to it with a new set of tools and in a different mindset per. As well. But no, I'm, I'm, I'm keep being impressed and surprised by just how brilliant the students are, how passionate, how passionate, you know, and now they just, you want to get stuff done. Whereas I still see all these people on, on social media who usually says retired engineer in the title on LinkedIn. And. Yeah, yeah, they always tell you why something doesn't work and it's always glass, glass half empty or completely empty, and it's all terrible. It's never going to work. And then you see this young people who are like, I want to, I want to solve things. I have an idea and I'm going to, you know, apply myself to. And that's how change happens. Yeah, I believe not. Not by you know, telling other people that it's all pointless, you know, best and.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah, no, absolutely right. And that one of the things I've just experienced very recently, I'm not going to mention the make of the vehicle, but I've just seen a new version of a, of a car, of an electric car. Well, one of the things I am aware of because, partly because of my brother worked in that industry, but, you know, there would be a relaunch of a brand and of a model of a car and it would be. And it would have a new Front bit and those doors, they open in a different way. And did it involve a dance? Yeah, yeah, it might involve it but this one was pretty much. It looked 99 the same. I wasn't interested in that. The battery had, was about 25 higher capacity. It was the same weight and the vehicle cost £700 less than the vehicle. It was than the old than the previous. So it was faster and it charged much faster. The charging infrastructure was unbelievable.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Lighter, faster and cheaper and cheaper.

[Podcast Host 2]

And then you go that is not something that the automotive industry has experienced or people, you know. And it's not a super cheap car anyway. So it's not like, you know, it's a middle range car but it's not a flash sports car. This is a sensible family car with room for luggage and dogs and all that stuff. And you just think that is extraordinary. That story is really interesting that that is the case. Yeah. How that's kind of affecting all the technologies connected with it 100%.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And I think now with the, to come back to the current crisis and the high oil prices. I mean we had like oil more than $100 at some point. It was $120 per barrel. And that's really driving interest in EVs. I mean we have only anecdotal evidence so far because it always takes a few weeks until you see the registration data because people will probably make the order now then it takes what, six weeks until they get the car and they need to register it. But there has been a real spike in inquiries in websites for second hand cars but also for new cars and, and real interest in, in actually switching over from internal combustion engine to electric vehicles. So, so I think that is the one good thing maybe that will come out of this is that that there will be more people now looking at the alternatives and singles for heating. I mean I see so many people who are not energy geeks who are not. Yes. Obsessing about the, the, the scope, the efficiency of the heat pump and loading load, uploading it on, on a public website like heat pumpmonitor.org you can get us a ranking. But, but just normal people who don't want to burn fossil fuels in their home anymore and, and want to switch to something that is cleaner and safer and better for the environment and potentially cheaper if they have a really good install. So there's, there's just so much going on in that space that even if the politics are difficult and horrible and toxic, I think there's, there's something has changed. Oh I, and I think there's this tipping point where technology is now so good and become increasingly affordable that it's going to, it's going to scale. It may take longer or it might be quicker depending on how supportive our politicians are of it. But I believe even, even in the event of having a government that wants to prevent this. Look at the US Right. The last year was still the year with the record investment in renewables.

[Podcast Host 2]

And that was so bizarre because I, I must admit I was, you know, oh God, you know, I kind of wasn't surprised when the current administration appeared, but I just thought it's just going to flatten everything and all the, you know, because that's where I first saw things like solar panels. Wind tub was in California, was in America. That's where an. Electric cars. I mean the whole thing came out of the United States bizarrely. And at the moment it's just, But I mean there was the story about the offshore wind in, in the north, north, southeast of the United States is so funny because he just, he stopped it all happening and then the judges went, no, you can't do that.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

So they're now carrying on such a very good bit of news.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah. Was it three or five cases, something like that where it wasn't just one, it was several cases.

[Podcast Host 2]

Oh, I think there are five different. Yeah. And they're big. I didn't, I didn't realize quite the scale of them. They're large scale offshore wind insulation. Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And especially at a time when you have rising electricity prices, you have increased demand because of data centers application. And now the war happens and prices rise even higher. Stopping projects that are shovel ready or even in the middle of construction, you know, not being able to connect to the good. I mean, it is an interesting policy. Yeah. Yes. Yes.

[Podcast Host 2]

I think you're flattering it by calling it a policy, but the. Because that is one thing. So I've been, I must admit I had a bee in my bonnet, chip in my, on my shoulder. Whatever it is about the. And it wasn't so much about, you know, about. You mentioned data centers. But it's one topic I wanted to cover because it's having such a huge impact in the, on the. And on the electricity market, certainly, and water. But the. My argument isn't that we should be doing it or it's wrong or that, you know, it's, it's that I had so many people for so long and I'm sure you've heard this, oh, electric cars, they'll melt the grid. There's not enough capacity to charge cars and you go, my God, we could charge 100 million cars in one garage in the equivalent of a data center. Because a data center is like in one place, it's on all the time, it's a massive draw of power. And that is a big challenge for the human race. I think, just generally speaking.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, I mean data centers are interesting. They're certainly regionally causing huge problems for the grid. But then I think there's now increasingly incentives or requirements for data centers to produce their own electricity on site, maybe to have storage, certainly pay for the grid connection. And that already helps to address part of the problem. And then of course there's also an awful lot of waste heat that these data centers generate. And I mean Finland has made sort of headlines because they have now started to integrate waste heat from data centers into the district heating system. So you're just using electricity that's been put into a data center, electricity mainly from renewables, and then use the waste heat and put it into district heating and replace coal or gas. And that of course has tremendous benefits. So there are some upsides. Yes.

[Podcast Host 2]

Oh true.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I mean the other, there's an interesting company in the US that uses data centers for flexibility. So they have a portfolio of data centers they have contracts with and if you put something into ChatGPT and your query will then go to the data center where there's more renewables in the grid, there is less congestion and it's better for the electricity system rather than sending it to a data center where you have maybe coal producing electricity right now. And it's a lot of congestion in the grid. So there are now companies that help with that. I think there's a lot of things that can be done to mitigate, but yeah, it's still a significant problem. Although I think the public discussion about data centers, especially AI and electricity demand is, is, is overhyped. I mean there are data from the, the IAEA looked at this. So by 2030 we're going to have X amount of increase in electricity demand. Data centers make up 8% of that increase in AI within the data center chunk. I think is, is not even half. I think it's closer to 20 or 30%. The rest is cloud computing and just applications we use all the time in our Google.

[Podcast Host 2]

What we're doing now will be, will be housed in the data center.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Exactly. So I mean it is a problem, I think, think in particular regions, but I think it's somewhat been overhyped as well. It's not the only challenge that we face. And I think the interesting question is how will we integrate lots of new electric vehicles and heat pumps and electrify industry? Clearly we got to do that smart way and generate more, but also do it in a smart way that is in the end cheaper for the people who own these assets as well.

[Podcast Host 1]

This episode is brought to you by Hankook. The Hankook ion tire is built exclusively for electric vehicles, engineered to deliver what EV drivers need most confident grip, quietness, energy efficiency and long mileage. As the official tire partner of Formula E HongKook proves its EV technology is at the highest level of performance and brings that same innovation to every ion tyre on the road.

[Podcast Host 2]

Is that. I mean, all those things I think are really interesting how the, the impact of. I mean, let me just simplify it to the impact of renewables. So the impact of wind in this country, you know, there are days when we just don't need. We're burning like 5% of the electricity we're generating is from gas, the rest is from nuclear and wind. And you go, my God, that is an incredible change, really, in a very short period of time. I mean, I don't know when wind powered electricity passed 1%, but it's in my lifetime.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Oh, yeah. It's not that long ago.

[Podcast Host 2]

No, it's not that.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Not at all.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah. And now it's often today 55. The other day it was 72%. You know, if it's a.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And you will have, of course you will have people who will say, oh, but what about the last 10%? And. And the last 10% will be the most difficult 10%, there's no doubt. But even getting to 80%.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Which some countries have done now, Denmark, I think, are now around 90%. Of course they have, they have interconnections and they can have hydro from the Scandinavian countries nearby and so on. But still we've seen such tremendous progress at just how far you can push renewables, which was unthinkable 20 years ago, completely unthinkable. And in global statistics, you wouldn't be able to see solar and wind. So it was tiny. And now you see that they actually

[Podcast Host 2]

generated a significant chunk of. You know, when. If you sort of just think about it from a layperson's point of view, where you don't really know the granular detail, but you can sort of understand, like at my house, I've got solar panels, I've got batteries, the solar charges, the batteries. When that happens, I don't buy any electricity from the grid. That's not hard to understand, but then to do it on a scale, on a kind of national scale, you just go, well, that's a very, very big battery and that's a lot of solar panels. But I mean, the most crude question I've got about this is, you know, do we have enough raw materials to make what would have to be, you know, on a global sense, like petawatt hours of electricity storage? I mean, is that, is that feasible or am I thinking about it in the wrong way? You know?

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, I think so. There's different camps out there, as with everything, but in one camp would say that there is enough raw materials by a very wide margin and it's not a problem. And I think in physical terms, how much material there is, they're right. The question is how much of that can be extracted without destroying everything else. Exactly which time scales? And I'm just reading a book called Extraction, which is kind of all about lithium mining in Chile and kind of the Edge of Greek Capitalism I think is a subtitle. And it's very interesting because of course there is an impact for anything we do on this planet. There's an impact, there's a social environment limbic of some kind and that's important. I think equally it's important to compare it against the current system and not just be purist about it and say, oh, you can't have any environmental impact because if it does, then we shouldn't be doing it. And often it's actually people who have never had a problem with the impact of the fossil fuel industry, which is much, much larger, and then point out that there are some issues with lithium mining or copper mining and that I think is disingenuous. So I think recycling would be, it would be an interesting. And that's a really, I think, important topic that is not talked about enough. How can we create a circular economy in a clean energy system? It's only now, I think, becoming really relevant because the first batteries from electric cars that came to market at the Nissan leaf, was it 2010. 2010, and then Tesla Model S was 2012 and only, you know, that was tiny. I mean the numbers of cars sold globally was, was tiny. And now we have millions. So the next few years we're going to have more cars. They come to the end of their life and then we have more opportunity for large scale battery recycling. Can we actually set up a battery recycling industry? And on what timescale will that work? I think that's really important because once you have enough materials in circulation and you just Keep, in theory, you just keep reusing it and there will be some loss. But my understanding is that most of it can be reused with existing technology and can be recycled. So we've got to pay more attention to how we, how we do that.

[Podcast Host 2]

The company that I first heard about that we're doing on it on scale were redwood materials in the United States, which is one of the founders of Tesla started it. Like I'm trying to remember his name and it's gone anyway, him, he's very clever. And there it's colossal. I mean it's a massive industrial scale plant they have in the desert where they're recycling just thousands of tons. But there. And they're talking about 95 to 97

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

of all the materials.

[Podcast Host 2]

Again, you just go, yeah, that's, Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I think there is a similar factory in, in Switzerland. It might even be Glencore that is operating that well.

[Podcast Host 2]

It's going to be a new form of mining in a sense. You're extracting those materials.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I think that's fine. Belgium as well.

[Podcast Host 2]

Is that right? I do want to go and there's a few things I still want to, I want to see before. Yeah, you know, I want to see them go. But one of the, you know, on that topic, it's just a matter of personal shame. When the first person said to me, well, everything we use is either dug up or grown, I immediately thought, no, what about. And then I was trying to think of things that we don't dig up or grow.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Well, this is Ed Conway's book, Material World.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yes.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And it's absolutely fascinating because we really have no idea where the stuff we use every day comes from. Unless you go to the lengths that he's gone through and you investigate and you trace things back in the supply chain and you find out that in the supply chain there might be one very critical factory that is making a particular component. And without that the whole thing would fall. Fall apart. And. But it's, it's. I think we have as a society completely lost.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yes.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Connection to, you know, the resources we use, where they come from and, and how they've, they've been provided.

[Podcast Host 2]

That.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

That is an important conversation and no doubt.

[Podcast Host 2]

Absolutely. And it is those things like the, the kind of. It's much less. I mean, I'm sure you've sensed this, but it is one thing that I've noticed is that the criticisms that I would regularly witness about electric vehicles or renewable energy, they've changed considerably. They've reduced enormously.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

But there's still some Points, you know, where people will have heard something in the last 10 years. And oh, what about all the cobalt that's in your. Dug up by children? Well, it's about 1% of all cobalt was dug up by human beings in. But you know all those excuses.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

But also the last four electric cars that I've test driven don't have any cobalt or nickel in them. They're all LFP batteries and.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And cobalt is used by the oil industry to remove sulfur.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

Which is, and that kind of information. I mean I bang on about it all the time. But it isn't in the general understanding.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

It's not. And I think we had. There's always a delay where the evidence has already moved on, technology has moved on, but perception is based on information that is dated 10, 50 years out of date.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And people still believe it and it's being repeated all the time. I mean you can spend all day long just, just addressing the same myths in our technologies and, and they keep coming. I mean it's, it's, it's incredible. I mean the same is, goes for heat pumps, right? Yeah. And, and clearly some of that is, is just people are misinformed. I think there is also. And you know that because it's been exposed by investigative journalists, there's a deliberate misinformation campaign going on. I mean, you know this very well and I know you've sort of tried to counter that with actual information and. But this is one of the key obstacles actually. It's not so much technological. I think it's so this.

[Podcast Host 2]

Well, I think it's psychological, isn't it? It's the same with, I think with electric cars. You know the problems with that anybody might have. It's absolutely not technological. It's like it's what you feel. And I couldn't charge it. I wouldn't know how to do it. I don't know how it would work.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And you go, well just have a go. Yeah. You'll find out. And very, very. It's very mundane in many ways, isn't it? And what about then? Because that's the other one. The, the sort of few things that come up every now and then. So I think finally hydrogen as a fuel source for transportation has gently been moved into the, into the long term care home. But small modular nuclear reactors, carbon capture and storage. There's another one, there's three that I couldn't.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Fusion.

[Podcast Host 2]

Fusion.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Thank you.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yes. Those all seem to come up every now and then. And I mean none of them are bad Ideas. It's not like, it's not like, let's drill for more gas. No, that I don't agree with. But small modular nuclear reactors, if they work, make, make loads of them. Brilliant. I haven't yet seen one. And then carbon capture storage. Well, it's not going to destroy the world if you capture a load of carbon. Please carry on. How much electricity does it use? Oh my God. It's, I mean, are they, are any of those in your mind viable technologies?

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Certainly not in the medium term. Right. Because I mean, there's not a single SMR small modular reactor connected commercially in the. Operating in the whole world. I'm not aware of it. I don't think there is.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And scaling that supply chain will take a lot of time. It's not going to happen overnight. Yeah. It won't happen in two or three years. So the time from commercialization to mass deployment, that's too long to make a significant difference in the medium term. Maybe in the long term, sure, that may happen. But by 2035, that's what I think is medium term, it won't play a significant role. It's just hard to see how even if it became commercially available tomorrow, it's not going to scale that rapidly. And when it comes to fusion, there's a saying in the energy sector that fusion is always 30 years away. And yes, ever. You read the papers all the time that there's been some, some sort of success and something has happened. But again, it's, it's, it's, it's quite a long way from commercialization if it ever happens. And yeah, I'm not saying we shouldn't be doing the research by any means. And if it, if it worked, it could be, it could be wonderful and amazing.

[Podcast Host 2]

Well, if it could use the nuclear waste stuff we've got in Sellafield, just use that well. And didn't produce more waste. Go on.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

It's, it's just difficult to see how you could construct an energy strategy that's viable around technology that is not yet available and proven. I mean, it's, there's a bit of a wishful thinking, I'd say. If you did that and then what was the other one? Carbon capture and storage. We're going to need some of it to remove carbon from the atmosphere. If you want to bend down the curve of emissions in the atmosphere. And also there will be some residual emissions from livestock agriculture, some processes in industry where it's impossible to electrify. It's very difficult to see how you can Eliminate the emissions fully and carbon capture for that. Sure. I mean we may need it. The question is again to how much, how much do you rely on it for your long term strategy? And I just don't see it playing a major role in. We're going to have blue hydrogen and replace all the gas in the pipes and carbon capture will be offering us that opportunity to make blue hydrogen at scale. I just don't see how that would work. There's simply no evidence for it taking off in the way that we have been promised many times by the industry. But it hasn't happened yet.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah. So I mean I filmed at Drax B power station in Yorkshire in the UK in 20, over 20 years ago and there was a big PR push then. Yeah, we've got a lot of emissions now but we're going to use carbon capture. And I was, I didn't know so I was going oh that's brilliant, amazing, well done. 20 years later they haven't done it. They burn wood there now, they don't burn coal.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

That's, that's right. I mean until recently there was I think one single power station in the world in, in Canada that had fitted but it used, first of all it didn't capture all of the carbon, only captured a small amount and also it used the carbon emissions to then get more oil off the near pumped into, to get more oil out of the pure oil field. And yeah, and that was the, it wasn't particularly cost effective either. So now I think there's a few in China I believe where Southeast Asia, but it's only a handful and certainly hasn't the dream of clean coal has not materialized. I mean let's face it. And in the meantime of course you may now have a situation where often solar and batteries, wind are cheaper than then coal generation or gas generation. Therefore how could you then out compete these technologies? If you add another technology like another cost to it, it's hard to see how you would be able to do that.

[Podcast Host 2]

Well, it does feel to me and I'd love you to correct me if I'm wrong, but it does seem to me that it's the economics that are making as big a shift as anything else. You know you can have government policy and you can have the right attitudes because we want to protect the, the environment but economics is a very powerful driving force. And if it's cheaper. Yeah, I mean I've just been, you know, I was in Australia earlier this year. The solar farms I went to see there on a monstrous scale with sheep yeah, very good combination. Agrivoltaics, agricultural takes are very popular. But the, you know, it's just, it's cheaper, it's cheaper in Australia where coal is, is sort of free.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Right.

[Podcast Host 2]

You know, it's still cheaper to, to use solar and batteries and they're putting in massive batteries the size of large housing estates. You know, there's no, it seems to be no limit. They just get bigger and bigger.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah. Or Pakistan is a really interesting case study where I've sort of followed the solar adoption there for quite closely and I think it was something like only 1% a few years back and we're now at more than 20% of the entire electricity generation in Pakistan is. And most of that is actually rooftop solar.

[Podcast Host 2]

Right.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Because people have realized it's cheaper to have rooftop solar than buying electricity from the grid and it's more reliable. You know, the grid is actually not that reliable in Pakistan. So you have this real. So from the ground up, grassroots adoption of technology suddenly, because it's become more economic and affordable. And that wasn't the case 10 years ago, it's really changed because that's, I

[Podcast Host 2]

mean, I'm sort of going back to, you know, when I first heard about these things when I was in Germany and I spoke to a government minister in Berlin about. And I can't say it. You'll be able to say it, that I'm going to say in a Gaia vendor. But that's not. Thank you. I wasn't a million miles away but, you know, and it sounded so, you know, such an amazing aim to do this. And it was expensive and because the solar was expecting everything was like, it didn't feel like for the common person it's not going to affect their lives. And now, you know, certainly in Africa, I know that's. Solar has had an enormous impact on people who have never had electricity. In a sense, a bit like cell phones, you miss the copper wire bit and just have a cell phone.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

We had someone here at Oriel College to give a talk actually who worked for a company in, I think it was Nigeria. And they offer people off the grid a package of a battery of a solar panel and a flat screen tv. And often it's the TV that sells the tag. But then once you have the solar and the battery and the tv, then the next thing might be, well, maybe you. Instead of cooking with biomass, you might try induction cooking or you can do other things on top of that. And that's a complete game changer. If you suddenly have electricity, you can Charge your phone. You have a tv, you can watch the news and then sport and it's incredible.

[Podcast Host 2]

Charge your phone.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean, do you think then generally speaking, because it sounds like you are relatively optimistic, you know, realistically grounded, but you're generally optimistic that the human race can, you know, move on really, from, from the fossil, really from burning stuff. I mean, that's what we've been doing. I think you have years, you know,

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I think you have to be optimistic and, and, and because otherwise you may as well just give up. So I think actually optimism is, it's often you often, I'm often told, oh, it's, you're naive. You know, how can you be optimistic? Look at, look at the numbers. And yes, fossil fuel consumption, it's not going down fast enough. In fact, it's been rising in a lot of countries. Adoption of technology is not happening fast enough. Carbon emissions rising. So we're failing, aren't we? So yeah, just give up. And sometimes I'm told by people who actually they are environmentalists, they want to stop the problem. But I think if you have that mindset, you're never gonna change anything. You have to be, you have to believe in the possibility of change and that that means you have to be optimistic and believe that change is possible. So I think it's, it's, it's, it's almost a tool. Yeah. That you have to use in order to, to effectuate change in the world. And, but I'm also optimistic just looking at how much, I mean I've worked in energy for 22 years now. I started in 2004 as a student research assistant. And, and, and you have seen the, just over that two decade period, the industry changed, phenomenal change, unbelievable change. And that is against a lot of obstacles with difficult economics. And we're now in a situation where the question is how fast can we scale rather than other technologies viable. We have not all of them, but we have most of the technologies already and they will keep getting better and they will keep getting cheaper. So we have all the ingredients we need. The question is whether the politics and our cultural and social political experiments.

[Podcast Host 2]

I don't want to do a conspiracy theory, but the pressure, completely understandable. I've always said this from the fossil fuel industry. That's how they earn a living. And they want to keep selling the stuff.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Of course. I mean if you are a lobbyist for a fossil fuel company, you will be looking at it. You will be motivated to promote solutions that benefit your business. Just as of course if you were lobbyist for a renewable energy firm, you would do the same. So we shouldn't be surprised. I think the difference is that 80% is still largely fossil fuels. The amount of resources available to these industries is different.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah, I've looked up yesterday. So we have 47 years according to someone in one of the IEAs or the 47 years of fossil fuel left at current consumption rates of known reserves. So we have trillions of barrels aboard. It's like not, not. We're not running out. Yeah, no, but we could, you know, I mean, and I don't think we'd ever run out but it would just become incredibly expensive to get what remains. It becomes harder and harder. That sort of. So that. So I said, but I thought that was, I've never seen that before. I was thinking about talking to you today and I went, I didn't know that someone had worked 47 years.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I think that's, I mean that's, I haven't looked at this recently but I think the story has been historically that whenever people have predicted we're going to run out of certain resources, they find some more. And I remember when, I think it was Paul Alec who was a. I think he was an evolutionary biologist maybe at Stanford, and he made a bet with an economist I think called Simon and they were betting on we have resources running out. And they basically used the price, I think as an indicator of scarcity and they had I think 10 different resources. And Paul Alec said look, all of these would be much more expensive in 10 years time. And Julian Simon, I think was his name bet against it. And they both put a check down and said look, if you win in 10 years you're going to get that from me. And in 10 years later I think almost all of the resources had gone down in price and Boleli lost the bet and it was, yeah, that was kind of the most most prominent case perhaps. And of course a club of Rome at the time published their report about running out of resources. Limits to growth and the limits to growth. And I think the problem is, is not so much the, the availability of resources but if we burn through them all. Yeah, yeah, we're going to baby damages. We're going to be in a, in a. Not on the planet will just be very difficult to live on for us as a human race. So.

[Podcast Host 2]

But I mean I think the other one that's in a similar way my entire childhood and early years was, was a. All about the population explosion, the population bomb. There were books, you know, that's Paul. Yeah. No, he loved a bit of Popular. And then, you know, then the most recent book I've read about it is what are we going to do? Because the population is literally falling off a cliff everywhere in every country in the world except Afghanistan at the moment. I think it's the only one. The birth rate is dropped precipitously, even in countries which we as Westerners would assume like Bangladesh. Yeah, it's below when.

[Podcast Host 1]

When I was born.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Born.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah. It's 2.5 children. You know, when I was born. Bangladesh is below that. You think, my God, that's changed.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

And it's.

[Podcast Host 2]

If women are educated, if there's basic health services, people have less babies because more of them live.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, it's quite old. Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

But that I think was not, you know. But Paul, Eric did not predict, he predicted with just. And so the actual, you know, it's conceivable that in 100 years there'll actually be a lot less human beings on the planet. Not a result of war or famine, you know, like a few less of us.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean, when I read that book, I went through my address book and saw all my. Because I've had two children, I've looked at all these and I went, oh, no kids. No kids. Yeah. Oh, three. She had three. Disgusting. None. None. One. One. One. One. You know, it was none or one was very common and I was, that was. I'd never even thought about it. But, you know, the fact that we, we didn't even. Because you need more than two to do replacement. The mathematics is beyond me.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I have, I, I haven't studied. No. Relational.

[Podcast Host 2]

It's a different topic.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I'm sure it's very interesting.

[Podcast Host 2]

What last thing. Just, just because I, you know, I'm fascinated when I see new technology. I saw this extraordinary company in Australia that, that, you know, I'd heard of this notion before, but of, of using weight to store energy so that you drop a weight down a mine shaft.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And that. And I can understand it. And as it drops it, it spins a generator and then you use electric, cheap electricity to pull it back up. They've gone one step further. It's a very clever system of non stop constant, Right. Charging and discharging and it's, you know, it's in the megawatt capacity, so that, you know, those little ideas are fascinating, but I wonder if there's a technology that you've seen that is in its formative stages.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I would say heat batteries are definitely one to watch. And by heat Batteries, I mean, large batteries that can be used for industrial processes. There's now about 40 companies, at least I counted, that can offer heat batteries, very large range of temperatures from just the low hundreds degrees centigrade. So maybe in a brewery, in a food and drinks industry, boil water. Yeah, maybe textiles. You know, it's quite low temperatures of parbon paper all the way to quite high temperatures up to 1500 degrees centigrade. And the beauty, I think with heat batteries is that you can use an abundance of different materials. It could be sand, there's a company using sand. You can use old bricks, you can use manufactured materials from waste materials. There's a wide range of materials you can use for that and they're modulizable. You can sort of make a little one little by little one similar to really electric batteries. And they don't need that much space, physical space, and they can be running flexibly, harvesting cheap electricity and providing heat 24, 7. So I think that's an interesting space to watch because it's fairly new, very novel, and industry is the next. That's kind of the next big thing. I think that needs to happen. We have, I mean, we've done really well on transport, I'd say on certainly on road transport. Now when it comes to innovation buildings, I mean, heat pumps are really the technology I think that will dominate that space. But industry is still in its infancy. I mean, yeah, industrial heat pumps will do some of it, but for the higher temperatures they struggle. So I think heat batteries definitely one of the technologies in which I'd say,

[Podcast Host 2]

yeah, I mean, just because it's come back recently, but I mean, I spent a couple of visits to Orkney where they do. They have got tidal turbines lines there, which have been very clever ideas, but I think even they would acknowledge salt water and metal and electronics. It's a. It's a complicated, challenging mixture. But apparently there is a very large 1.1, 1.2 megawatt turbine operating in Japan that is proving itself to be very. I mean, if you. Because I sort of scratched it off the list. I think that's never going to happen.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

I mean, maybe, you know, it's probably more unlikely, but then sometimes there's a breakthrough and suddenly there is a technology that wasn't on people's radar and it does really have a massive impact. I mean, lithium ion batteries were invented at least partly in Oxford, not far from here, and that was in the 70s. Without that breakthrough, we wouldn't be having the ability to drive EVs around because this was such a difference in weight, heat, and ability to store electricity. So these things happen once, once in a while. But there's a lot of competing technologies in the mix that, you know, I'm. I'm always skeptical until you see that there's actually demand picking up this professionalization of the industry. And it's not just a pilot project

[Podcast Host 2]

because those things that always sound wonderful until you only need one person to explain to you. But, you know, the idea of a tidal barrier across the River 7 in this country. Country. And you see the tides. I mean, you know, I know that river quite well.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 1]

It's phenomenal difference.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

And you go. Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

You just build all that.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah. Where does the stuff that you build the wall come from? It's basically Devon. You know, you dig up Devon and you spread it. You know, it's such an enormous project that you just go, okay, I understand why that might not happen.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah, yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

Those things. Yeah. And it's been such fun. I mean, I want to. I'll just check the time. Oh, yeah, we're done. Oh. Because. But I think, I think we've covered lots of things.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Lots of crap.

[Podcast Host 1]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

I mean, it's been, it's been. It's been wonderful. Oh, I'm going to do one last one. This is definitely the last one. So you've got a house and it's well insulated and you. But the roof is unsuitable for solar panels. But you can get a variable tariff.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

On your electricity. Is it worth. Is it worth going for a battery rather than solar? This is very domestic question. Oh, gosh. But, you know, that's a hard question.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

Because I think, I feel it's. It. I. I'm encouraging. People are going, don't worry about solar. Get a battery first. If you know, because that. Anyone can put a battery in their house and solar is often more challenging and depending on the house and all that stuff. But it, you know, I'm can sense that I've benefited from having batteries.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah.

[Podcast Host 2]

But in the winter, I charge for less money.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Right.

[Podcast Host 2]

In the nighttime and I use that electricity in the day. It seems to, you know, fairly.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Yeah. I mean, I think you have to look at it on a case by case basis, like, what's the cost of. Cost of the battery? What tariff would you have? I clearly, for some people it makes sense.

[Podcast Host 2]

Yeah.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

But I wouldn't go as far as saying it always makes sense. You should always have a battery. And, you know, it depends on your usage and how you operate the battery, what tariff you're on and the cost

[Podcast Host 2]

and how you use electric.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

So there's all these factors. And. But, yeah, I think we're getting now into a position where it makes sense for more and more people.

[Podcast Host 2]

It's making more and more sense. I mean, what. I love that. I think that's a perfect illustration of, of my. Yeah, just get the battery and shut up.

[Podcast Host 1]

And you're.

[Podcast Host 2]

Let's think about this a little bit more carefully. Which is, which is why you're a professor in Oxford University and I'm not. But that is. Jan, thank you so much. It's been a real joy to talk to you.

[Professor Jan Rosenau]

Pleasure. Pleasure. Thank you.

[Podcast Host 2]

Really hope you enjoyed that. But that's all. Do join us again next week for another sizzling episode of the Everything Electric podcast.