I'm Facing A Billion Dollar Decision | Spotify Video Exclusive

Summary

Podcast Summary

The Game with Alex Hormozi

Episode: I'm Facing A Billion Dollar Decision
Date: January 5, 2024

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Episode Overview

In this candid episode, Alex Hormozi reflects on a pivotal moment in his entrepreneurial journey: choosing between two billion-dollar business paths. Sharing personal stories, decision frameworks, and engaging banter with his wife, Layla, Alex explores the nuances of making high-stakes decisions. The conversation also touches on mindset, opportunities, reputation, and the importance of being fully committed versus taking “half measures.” The episode is sprinkled with relatable anecdotes, lessons on influence, and lighter moments around travel and downtime.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Facing High-Stakes Decisions

• The Dilemma: Alex opens up about standing between two billion-dollar opportunities, each with contrasting risk profiles.
  • Quote: “One of the hardest decisions in entrepreneurship is deciding which path to follow, especially when you have two or multiple good paths.” — Alex [00:05]
• The Process: He details his intensive approach to decision-making—gathering data, seeking new perspectives, and taking steps to minimize distraction, often opting to think while in the air flying.
  • “My favorite place to think is actually on planes… I always make really good decisions when I'm in the air.” — Alex [00:18]
• Upside vs. Certainty: One path offers greater (but riskier) potential, the other is safer with more certain, but limited, upside.
  • “One has potentially more upside, but more risk. The other is more certain but has lower upside.” — Alex [02:00]

Risk, Reputation, and Irreversibility

• Reputation as an Asset: Alex underscores that some kinds of risk (especially reputational) are irreversible.
  • “Anything that damages your reputation is irreversible because you only get one reputation, and you literally can't bankrupt yourself out of a bad reputation.” — Alex [02:10]
  • He cites Sean “Survata’s” advice: “Never want to bet the empire for a pot of gold. You bet what you have a need for something you don't have and don't need. It's never a good bet.” [02:13]
• Opportunity Cost of Time: A recurring theme is the value of time, and Alex stresses the importance of making “trades” that maximize returns.
  • “The only base thing we have is time, and we make trades for stuff. The people who are better at trading it for more stuff get more stuff.” — Alex [03:08]

Learning From Mistakes—No Half Measures

• Commitment Over Caution: A vivid story from Alex’s days at Gym Launch highlights the danger of “half measures”—when a lackluster sales pitch bombed because he hedged his bets on the close.
  • “It was the biggest flop of a presentation I've ever given… Right now I had done a half measure. And so it's either sell or don't sell. Don't be in between.” — Alex [05:45]
• Going All In: Referencing concepts like “burning the boats,” Alex advocates for eliminating alternatives and fully committing when the time is right.
  • “A lot of people spend most of their lives being half in, half out, which to me is just not in at all… sometimes you have to make a bet and be willing to be wrong, knowing that if you make no bet, you're guaranteed to be wrong.” — Alex [06:15]

Influence and Mini-Skills in Sales

• Personal Encounters: Alex recounts how social skills and little “influence” tactics (like using someone’s name) create leverage and better outcomes in negotiations or casual exchanges.
  • “Your favorite word in the entire language is your own name. So you love hearing that word more than any other word.” [07:09]
• Practical Examples: From talking his way into a steakhouse without appropriate attire to charming an ice cream shop to stay open late, Alex demonstrates how mood, tone, and empathy shape outcomes.
  • “People do nice things when they're in nice moods. So it's like, get them in a good mood first, then ask for the nice thing.” — Alex [08:30]

Preparation, Performance, and Imposter Syndrome

• Speaking Engagements: Despite being invited to speak at large events, Alex reveals his doubts (“I don't talk to real estate agents. It's going to be useless for them.” [10:36]). He decides to deliver unique value by sharing his own frameworks instead of trying to outdo subject matter experts in their own field.
• Presentation Approach: His process involves last-minute updates, high slide counts, and leveraging adrenaline for performance.

Commitment to Action

• Execution Over Planning: Alex advises the audience to turn their takeaways into specific actions; learning only counts if it leads to changed behavior.
  • “Measure your success by whether you completed the actions that would make it unreasonable that you will not fail, and then you succeed by default.” — Alex [11:00]

Advice for Major Decisions

• First-Timers Should Favor Certainty: For those at their first major fork, Alex suggests the safer, higher-chance-of-success path, warning of the countless untold stories of entrepreneurs who lost everything going “all in” on the long shot.
  • “If it's the first go round… take the lower risk path… there are stories of just unbelievable entrepreneurs, but what you don't hear is the tens of thousands who lose everything.” — Alex [13:09]
• But If You Swing Big, Mean It: If the choice is to swing big, eliminate all alternatives and fully commit—half measures guarantee failure.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “[On risk and reputation] Anything that damages your reputation is irreversible… you can’t bankrupt yourself out of a bad reputation.” — Alex [02:10]
• “If we want to make commitments in anything… eliminate the possibility of going back on it. A lot of people spend their lives being half in, half out, which is just not in at all.” — Alex [06:15]
• “You either give value or you sell shit. Don’t try and mix them.” — Alex [05:58]
• “People do nice things when they’re in nice moods. So get them in a good mood first, then ask for the nice thing.” — Alex [08:30]
• “[Advice to audience] Make that a list of things you will do. When you go back to your same home and market, change your behavior… that will show you learned and you took one step to becoming the person you want to be.” — Alex [11:02]
• “[On choosing between two paths] If it’s the first go round, take the lower risk path. If you’re going to go for the big swing… burn the boats, go all in, fully commit, eliminate alternatives, no half measures.” — Alex [13:15]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:00-00:20: Introduction to the billion-dollar decision, thinking on planes
• 02:00-03:30: Upside vs. certainty of opportunities, litmus test, Sean Survata quote
• 04:50-06:30: Story on half measures and biggest presentation flop
• 07:09-08:30: Importance of using names, influence tactics, mood setting
• 10:00-11:15: Prepping and presenting at a real estate conference, imposter syndrome
• 11:00-11:40: Encouragement to commit to actions, change behavior
• 13:09-13:35: Advice for major decisions: when to be safe and when to swing big

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Tone & Final Thoughts

The episode is classic Alex Hormozi—direct, humorous, self-deprecating, and practical. He mixes high-level business wisdom with actionable tactics and real-life vignettes, making even billion-dollar dilemmas relatable. Whether discussing business frameworks or the best way to get dessert late at night, the underlying lesson is clear: whether you play it safe or go all in, be intentional and avoid half measures.

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This summary captures major themes, quotes, and moments—bringing listeners up to speed on Alex Hormozi’s latest business crossroads and life philosophies, all delivered in his trademark style.

Transcript

[A]

And so right Now, I have $2 billion paths.

[B]

What's the worst case scenario?

[A]

If you do it, Anything that damages your reputation is irreversible because you only get one reputation, and you literally can't bankrupt yourself out. Fuck it. One of the hardest decisions in entrepreneurship is deciding which path to follow, especially when you have two or multiple good paths. I'm at a point in my career where I do have a very large decision that I need to commit to for multiple years. And I've been spending basically every waking hour trying to gather more data to make the right decision. What I'm. One of my favorite things to do when I do have big decisions is to change my environment. And I think it happens multiple times. My favorite place to think is actually on planes. I often have very few distractions when I'm on planes, and I quite literally get perspective. Like, I'm flying up and I'm looking down at the earth. I feel like I always make really good decisions when I'm in the air. And it's actually something that I, like, really look forward to. You know what I've been waiting for since I've been married? Going to Chili's.

[B]

We've gone to Chili's. I had, like, a seizure. Honestly, I would go because I don't mind. I don't care about the style of the restaurant, but I do not like their food.

[A]

I think they have amazing chips, great salsa, and the fajitas are strong.

[B]

I hate that you go hard on this in front of people, because then behind the closed doors, you're like, yeah, it's not that good.

[A]

If there's any time, like, in the fine establishments that I go to that we've gone to now, like, five times, like, we'll go. And she'll be like, it sucks, right? It sucks. Say it. Say it. It's not as good as the finest dining in the world. Just say it. And I'll be like, yes, it's not as good. She's like, see? See? And then that's it for the rest of my life.

[B]

You're chilly.

[A]

Shit.

[B]

And you get, like, a stomachache from it.

[A]

And then you're like, who are you talking about here? Yeah, who are we talking about? I think you're telling me your story here. So we just landed in San Diego, and we are going to reals event, which is a big publicly traded brokerage for real estate agent. Our really close friend Sharon Srivaza is the president of the company. He invited us out. We're probably gonna have dinner with him. We're gonna speak there tomorrow. I will be making a presentation to help real estate agents sell more houses, but it will not be about real estate. It'll either suck or be great or someone returns. How do I stop doing all these routines? I'm like, I can't even stop. I, like, tried to smoke cigarettes to get addicted to them, and I was like, I just. It was too hard. It was just too hard to stick with it. It's like every morning it's like, what if I forget? The hardest part about growth is that the better you get, the bigger you get, the bigger the opportunities are and the better they are. I think the easiest litmus test is to determine how big of an opportunity is worth your attention. So right now, 10x is kind of my litmus test. It's like, we're at 100. It's got to be a billion or more for it to be something that I want to dedicate to. And so right now, I have what I would consider to be $2 billion. Paths, they're very different, relatively irreversible. One has potentially more upside, but more risk. The other one is more certain but has lower upside. There's lots of things that can make a decision irreversible. There's if it's a certain percentage of your net worth or capital. I don't like making those kinds of bets. This is a quote from Sean Survata, buddy of mine. He said, never want to bet the empire for a pot of gold. You bet what you have a need for something you don't have and don't need. It's never a good bet. Anything that damages your reputation is irreversible because you only get one reputation. And you literally can't bankrupt yourself out of a bad reputation. You can't make take reputational risk where there's only downside. Now, if I were to say, like, I want to support this cause, I might piss off some people, but it'll move me towards a different group of people. So then in that case, that's a trade off more than it's a risk. And so that's different than what I'm talking about here. And then you just have time, you know, time that you can't get back. Every moment you spend always has the opportunity cost of what you could have done with that time to get a higher return. I think the number one presentation I have on YouTube is about that concept is the only base thing we have is time, and we make trades for stuff. And so the people who are better at Trading it for more stuff. Get more stuff. There's this story that Tony Robbins told that I really like, that just kind of illustrated this image is that, like, rich people make bets where they can't lose on either way. Like, so there's this guy who knows that nickels nowadays are made with nickel or whatever. The material they make nickel with is more valuable than the cost of a nickel. This billionaire, he knows has taken the nickel. He's putting it in storage as an investment, because the day that they change or remove that nickel from currency because it makes no sense, he'll melt it and get 40% on his money. But there are investments that are high return, low risk. You want to find those bets. How's it going? You're good, man. What's up? I'm a Treasury founder. We just find banks in the US that literally pay the highest rates on cash. Well, give me your card. I don't have a card. I got a LinkedIn here. Take a picture of me and message me. And then the guy who managed my LinkedIn will get it. There you go. Oh, we got to get a good lighting. There it is. Do it right now so I can tell them I'll do it right now. Yeah, if we can get more cat, more return on our cash. We're in a hot zone. A hot zone of recognition. It's all, like, entrepreneurial people. Looks like it's this gentleman. No half measures. That's right. He knows. I'll tell you that story, man. We're running gym launch, making a lot of money. I got asked to speak at this, like, personal trainer conference. And I was like, yeah, sure, I'll. I'll talk. Like, I wasn't being asked to speak. I wasn't making content like this. So, like, it wasn't like a normal. I was like, sure, I'll come talk. And I was like, so what do you want to do? He's like, well, I figure you just, like, give a lot of value, and then you can, you know, present your thing or whatever. And I was like, okay, cool. I made this really long presentation that was just like, very, very good. And then at the end, I had the full presentation webinar of how to. How to sell it. Like that. I used to sell it before. And I was like, you guys probably don't need to see all this stuff, right? Like, okay, you get it. Like, personal training, you know, it's important. You got to know how to sell. Gotta understand the systems. At the end, I was like, yeah, and here's the price and I dropped it and I was like, you know, I just, I just went as fast as I could through it and I didn't even. I said it like I'm saying it right now. I didn't like actually say it. And so then I revealed the price. And so I did what would have been a 90 minute presentation pitch in like 15 minutes after giving 3 hours plus of value. So I was like, this should make sense. I gave a shitload of value and then I'll just soft toss it, right? And I got so much resistance from the crowd. It was the biggest flop of a presentation I've ever given my entire life. I don't even think, I think I made two sales like it was nothing. Right now I had done a half measure. And so it's either sell or don't sell. Don't be in between. You either give value or you sell shit. Don't try and mix them. If we want to make commitments in anything or you're trying to go all in on a decision, one of the best ways to do that is to eliminate the possibility of going back on it. A lot of people spend most of their lives being half in, half out, which to me is just not in at all. It just gives them an excuse to feel like they're making progress when they really aren't. There's a lot of books that talk about going pro, going all in, burning the boats, and I think they all kind of go along the same point, which is that sometimes you have to make a bet and be willing to be wrong, knowing that if you make no bet, you're guaranteed to be wrong. But yeah, for tomorrow, everybody there knows more about selling houses than I do. And my proof point of that is that they have all sold more houses than I have. So what am I going to teach them about selling houses? Right. I think it would be silly for me to try and compete on that because there's other speakers who've both done it and been there more than me. So I feel like that'd be a terrible position to take. What I am going to do is say if I were to start, here's how I would win. But if selling houses means winning, it'll apply. Here's my girlfriend, Riley. How's it going? Michael. Michael, nice to meet you. Sorry, my hands are cold. I appreciate it. Dude, you're killing the game, man. I appreciate it. Nice to meet you. Nice meeting you too, Riley. Right? See you guys. When I was in high school, I read this book called how to make Friends and influence People. And I think the second chapter or something is call people by their name. It's their favorite word in the whole language. And I was like, oh, that's interesting. Your favorite word in the entire language is your own name. So you love hearing that word more than any other word. Well, I should say that a lot of times if somebody likes that word. Think about this from a leverage perspective. If you haven't seen somebody in year and then you show up at a conference and you're like, steve. And he doesn't remember your name, he loses all leverage. You're the good guy, and so you have so much more leverage in the conversation for a memory.

[C]

Thank you for calling reservation center.

[A]

Gotta see if I can get in there with a tank top and water sandals.

[C]

Thank you for calling Steakhouse.

[A]

Amy speaking.

[C]

How can we help you, Amy?

[A]

How are you today? Hello, Amy. I'm doing okay.

[C]

How are you?

[A]

I'm good. Quick question for you. I have reservation at 7:30. What's the dress code?

[C]

We don't turn anyone away unless you're wearing the following board shorts, swimsuits, and tank tops for dress code.

[A]

Well, if you've never turned anyone away before, then I might just have to risk it because I can't go back to my hotel on time.

[C]

Oh, no. Okay.

[A]

I'm gonna say Amy said it was okay.

[C]

Yeah, no problem. I'll get that sent over though, and let them know you should be okay.

[A]

Thank you so much, Amy. You're a lifesaver.

[B]

You're like that with the ice cream.

[A]

So we're on our way to an ice cream shop, and it's clos, like, at the time we're about to get there, Layla, she was like, we should call to make sure that, like, we can get in. And I was like, hey, how's it going? My wife needs ice cream or I'm gonna be in the dog house. I was like, what are the chances? One in a million that you guys can stay up and five minutes later so I can get some ice cream? I was like, I'll be in and out. I'll be the fastest ice cream man you've ever seen. And they were like, okay, but you just can't tell anyone else. I will take you to the grave except for this content that I'm making right now. And she let us in, and we got the Sundays. I've done a lot of phone sales and I've done a lot of in person sales. And there's a lot of mini skills that you learn in sales that are useful in Every other environment where you need to get people to do something that you want them to do, the ideal way of doing is getting them to want to do the thing that you want them to do, rather than having them feel like they are doing you a favor. The way that you ask, the tone that you ask, the laugh that you make, the jokes that you make, all of those micro things. I do those things so that the person on the other end feels like if they see me in person, it will be a positive experience, and they want to have that reward. And so they are willing to push or bend the rules a little bit so that I can do whatever it is that I'm trying to do, or get into a restaurant or dessert or whatever it is. People do nice things when they're in nice moods. So it's like, get them in a good mood first, then ask for the nice thing. Said you made half the presentation last night. Yeah, I kind of had this, like, process that sort of works. I'll, like, outline what I'm going to say, like, far in advance, and then the day before, I'll change half of it. Oh, we get the. We get the VIP entrance.

[C]

Okay.

[A]

And then we noticed that your presentation is on 300 plus slides. Yeah, I finished it like, 20 minutes ago. Yeah, it looks good. It looks good. Yeah. And if it doesn't, I'll surprise. Okay. Usually I get more of my adrenaline now, and by the time I get on stage, it's like I'm done with it kind of thing. It's always directly proportional to the prep. Yeah. This will be the first time I've talked about any of the stuff that I'm talking about in a keynote. So I love this tall boy. Dude, this is great. Get a little bit of sugar, a little bit of caffeine, a little bit of delicious and a little bit of it. How many people? 350. I had 100 slides. He has 200 of the 20. I have 300. Oh, my God. 300 slides. I'm looking forward to it. Oh, thank you. You ever done a real estate audience? No, I don't think so. I'm not. I don't talk to real estate agents. It's going to be useless for them. They'll be like, what a waste of an hour talking. From my friend Alex Horoscop. A lot of you guys already know how to win because you know how to lose. So flip it. You guys know how to win better than I could ever tell you. You measure your success by whether you completed the actions that would make it unreasonable that you will not fail and then you succeed by default. And everyone here has things that they've written down for many of the talks of things that you want to do or want to think about or whatever. I would encourage you to make that a list of things that you will do. And then when you go back to the same condition, your same home, your same house, your same market, your same whatever, you change your behavior. And then that will show that you learned and you took one step to becoming the person that you ultimately want to be. This stuff is all top of mind in terms of making actions that would make it unreasonable that I fail with a billion dollar decision just because that's actually a decision I'm making right now. I'm at a point in my career where I have enough what I would consider singles, doubles, triples that I have decided to take a bigger swing. I'll either win or I'll learn same as you. So from the bottom of our heart, Alex, you impacted our life. Thank you man. We appreciate you. Thank you guys. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you all.

[B]

I want to do 0001 of you.

[A]

That's all my. You can be. You can be 100 xu.

[C]

Stop it.

[A]

Thank you. Alex. You're good. Chris. Very nice to meet you. Appreciate you, Katie. Appreciate you with you and Katie. Yeah, sure. And Steel Trap. Bro. I followed you since you had about 50,000 subscribers. Nice to be back here to see you. I'm gonna earn that hat. I bought one. I'll go wear it someday. I love seeing Mosi Nation in the wild. I love the hustle. I love everyone coming up and sharing their stories like that always makes my day. I would say though, do it in a place where you won't, you know, get put in handcuffs for sneaking in. Come up when you see me in public if you can. I'm happy to say hi, take pictures, whatever. Don't go into areas where you're not supposed to go in order to try hang out because it usually just doesn't end well. Very nice to meet you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. So that was. That was great. I did my keynote earlier in the day. I think people liked it. They may not have. I think they sat through it regardless. And I think we're probably gonna have the afternoon. Probably a couple hours. Probably walk around and then we'll head back to Las Vegas. Content. Yep. Back in the day when I had one on ones there was a one guy who I was like, so, like what have you done for personal improvement? Like what Are you, you know, have you done. He's like, yeah, you know, it was so crazy. Like, I realized if I, if I don't watch Netflix as much while I'm working, I get like so much more done. I was like, there's so many things wrong with that statement. You were telling me. Probably just like just level one of idiocy. Level two of idiocy is that like you mentioned that you're doing that you were watching Netflix in general while you were working. Point three is that you didn't actually say you were going to stop. You just said that you cut back on how much Netflix you were watching while you were working. And I was just like, there's so many stupidities interwoven into so few words. I was flabbergasted. So you're more productive when you, you don't watch Netflix movies? Not as much. Yeah. As much as many shows in a row while you're being paid at your job. Yeah, it's been great. That's pretty. That is pretty. Oh, damn. So if you're at the crossroads between one decision that you're trying to choose between two different paths, if it's the first go round, I would encourage you to take the lower risk path that has a higher chance of success. If it's a business, there are stories of just unbelievable entrepreneurs, but what you don't hear is the tens of thousands of entrepreneurs who make that massive bet and then lose everything and lose five, eight years of their lives. If you are going to make the big swing and kudos to you, it's an absolute personal decision. Burn the votes, go all in, fully commit, eliminate alternatives, no half measures. Because what I can guarantee you is that if you are going after the big swing, the way to guarantee that it does not work is to go half in. So if you're going to win, make it unreasonable that anything that was in your control was not controlled for and then only lose for things that were not under your control. What do you think? Top five for me, I go Matrix all time. I'd be willing to put Dark Knight as number two. It's just like he's such a good villain. It's just like he was just the perfect villain. The intro scene is just like one of the all time best scenes ever. I really like an oldie, but I do like Gladiator, Russell Crowe. You have one that's not like action heavy. Probably my favorite comedy. Fuck no, it's too hard. 40 year old virgin, wedding crashers, super bad and surprise bridesmaids. I cried during Bridesmaids. It's like I couldn't breathe. I was dying. Yeah. I mean, I went because a buddy of mine had the job that I was at, was like, let's go see it. And I was like, bye. So I, like, had a couple drinks and went to the movie theater, and I was hyperventilating because I couldn't fucking stop laughing.