Seasonality Isn’t a Problem, It’s a Profit Opportunity | Ep. 952

Summary

Podcast Episode Summary

Podcast: The Game with Alex Hormozi
Host: Alex Hormozi
Episode: Seasonality Isn’t a Problem, It’s a Profit Opportunity | Ep. 952
Date: March 12, 2026

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Main Theme

This episode tackles the “problem” of seasonality in business, reframing it as an opportunity for profitable, predictable growth. Alex Hormozi coaches a premium catering entrepreneur through his concerns about uneven seasonal revenue, ultimately urging focus on expanding proven marketing channels rather than creating new services or spreading resources too thin.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Understanding Seasonality as a Feature (00:30–01:19)

• Alex points out that some industries, like catering, inherently have seasonal demand, comparing it to sectors such as lawn care, snow plowing, and ice cream shops.
• Seasonality isn’t necessarily a “bug”; it’s an expected aspect of certain business models.

2. Examining the Business Context (01:19–02:32)

• Matthew’s company makes 65% of revenue in six months (September–February) with steady profits even in slower months.
• Despite a slower winter, the business remains strong with 40% net profit overall.

3. How Customers Are Acquired (02:32–03:09)

• Strong customer flow comes from a blend of:
  • 40% organic SEO
  • 40% Google Ads (PPC)
  • 20% referrals

4. The Lure (and Danger) of Diversification (03:09–03:51)

• Matthew considers launching a corporate catering arm to offset seasonality but worries about distraction.
• He references Hormozi’s advice, not wanting to “chase the woman in the red dress.”

5. Profitable Volatility vs. Actual Risk (03:51–05:43)

• Alex distinguishes between business volatility and risk:

  • Many top seasonal businesses (e.g., chocolate companies, insurance) make most profit in certain months but operate at a loss or break-even outside their main season.
  • The key is predictability: If you know when spikes and dips will occur, you can plan and manage accordingly.

  “You can have something that is volatile but not risky. … If we know it’s going to happen, then we can predict it. If we can predict it, we can plan for it.”
  — Alex Hormozi [04:15]

6. “Do More of What Works” (05:43–06:06)

• If current methods yield profit year-round and higher revenue in hot months, the answer is to scale what’s working rather than overcomplicating with new ventures.

  “If you’re profitable all the months of the year and then some months you just make more money … that just sounds like a business that has a predictable cycle.”
  — Alex Hormozi [05:23]

7. The Power of Focus (06:06–06:53)

• Hormozi emphasizes the Theory of Constraints—businesses should double down on what’s effective.

• Suggests doubling PPC spend and introducing Meta (Facebook) ads for additional growth instead of starting a separate corporate catering business.

  “If you can double the business doing one thing, why do four?”
  — Alex Hormozi [06:16]

• Focus on core competencies, grateful that competitors will likely waste resources chasing shiny objects.

  “I’m so grateful because all my competitors will be distracted by the shiny object. Like, let them worry about that while you just keep crushing it and them.”
  — Alex Hormozi [06:44]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Predictability vs. Uncertainty:
  “Think about the alternative. It could be unpredictable. That would suck.”
  — Alex Hormozi [05:44]

• On Business Discipline:
  “The biggest [resource] being your time, your effort, and your mental bandwidth. … I’m not looking at this anymore—this is just a feature of my business.”
  — Alex Hormozi [06:19]

• On Seeking Advice:
  “Maybe Alex would figure something out, but maybe it is just that, hey, it’s just a feature.”
  — Matthew [06:01]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:30 — Comparing seasonality across industries
• 01:19 — Why are certain months slower in catering?
• 02:32 — How customers are acquired and revenue sources
• 03:09 — Considering and rejecting diversification
• 03:51 — Examples of profitable but seasonal businesses
• 04:15 — Volatility vs. risk explained
• 05:23 — Recognizing seasonality as a positive feature
• 06:16 — The power of doing one thing well
• 06:44 — Why focus beats diversification

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Takeaways

• View seasonality as a predictable feature, not a flaw.
• Focus energy and resources on scaling what already drives profit—SEO, PPC, proven ad channels.
• Avoid distractions from “shiny object syndrome”—new business lines may erode focus and momentum.
• Predictability in cycles allows for better planning and is far preferable to unpredictability.
• Growth often comes from doing more of what works, not reinventing the business.

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This episode delivers a reality check for entrepreneurs wrestling with seasonality: often, the greatest profit opportunities lie in accepting your business’s cycles and maximizing efficiency, rather than chasing after constant, year-round revenue or broadening into unrelated ventures.

Transcript

[A]

All right, let's rock. Revenue business and problem.

[B]

My name is Matthew. I sell premium catering experiences to private clients looking to celebrate milestone events in Sydney. Great. We do about 2.8 million this year with 40% net profit. We'd like to be at 8 million in two years.

[A]

Let's go.

[B]

The main constraint seasonally. So we do about 65% of our annual revenue in six months. And if I don't solve this, I either say no to demand in summer or I am overstaffed in winter.

[A]

Yeah. So one thing right off the bat I will say is that this is a feature, not a bug of the industry that you're in. Right. Same thing as lawn care guys. Same thing as guys who do snow plowing. It's just a, it's a super common thing. Swimming pools sometimes obviously in the summer. So like there, there are industries that are just going to be more smoothies if you've summer versus Italian ice store. Like there's a lot. Right. That are seasonal now. Couple questions. So catering, what is your, what is your hot season again?

[B]

Pretty much September through February.

[A]

Okay. And so from now until September is when it's slow.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So what. Why are people not celebrating from now until September? Actually, I'm not even sure it's a festive season.

[B]

I think. Yeah, it's. It's not, it's not as much of a festive season. I think people don't spend as much money going through winter. I don't know if any of that has to do with.

[A]

But you still have like in general east. Don't worry about the economy. They get whatever. I would just remove economy from. From lexing hunt. There's nothing you can do about it. So. Okay, so people don't do Easter, you don't do corporate events.

[B]

We do do corporate. Yes. So we target corporate through winter more. So they have better lifetime value but they have lower spend per. Per event, which lowers gross profits. So we do market more or less exclusively to private.

[A]

Okay. I'm just like, it actually doesn't sound like you're actually in that seasonal of a business. People have like. I mean I started with that but like catering happens year round. I mean, shoot, I cater every single week.

[B]

Yeah. So we do large events. So typically kind of 60 to 100 people like birthday parties, engagements, weddings there all year round. A lot of the corporate rush that comes through in summer for end of year staff parties, things of that nature. That spot, it takes us like well beyond our capacity which gives us that busy season. And then through winter we Just we lose a lot of that.

[A]

You subsist in the, not in the off season. Correct. You like lose money or break even in the off season?

[B]

No, we're still profitable. We have a really good, we have strong gross profit and strong margins. So we're still good. I just like to make more money.

[A]

Okay, got it. Okay, so a couple things. So currently how are you getting customers?

[B]

We have really strong organic SEO and we also do a lot of Google Ads.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

That's the most data main channels. So we have probably 50% organic, probably 40% organic, 40% ads, 20% referral.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

But it's less tracked, it's more of a brand awareness.

[A]

Got it. So SEO and PPC kind of rule, rule of the day. Okay, so what stops you from spending more ppc? Are you maxed out? Like is it stop being profitable? Like what's, what's stopping you there?

[B]

Search volume and lead quarterly drops through winter. Okay, back to LTV, still strong. We're at a 12 to 1. So we can just spend more. I'm trying to find I guess my constraint or my question, my main question becomes I have considered popping up a corporate for the reef like a prepackaged like typical corporate catering setting through to be a kind of entity under catered by Matt, which would be a year round service because they have a very inverted seasonality to the event side like the corporate ordering more of that delivery. But it's, it's. I don't want to get distracted. Like I'll watch a lot of your content. I don't want to chase the woman in the red dress. Yeah, it's a whole new business.

[A]

Yeah. Well I guess the like the problem that we're trying to solve here, like you are profitable, you're running 40% even in the fact that there's on and off cyc. So to grow the business we could ignore the fact that it's lumpy. I'll give you two examples of this. So Harry and David's, it's a chocolate company here in the US does like 100% of their annual profit in the month of December and then the other 11 months of the year they have their mall location and they just lose money. That's number one. Others if you look at like insurance, right. Insurance makes money every year and then every eighth year there's a Hurricane Katrina and they lose a bunch of money. And so I think what we need to replace is the difference between volatility and risk. So you can have something that is volatile but not risky. So insurance is volatile, but not risky. Same as this chocolate thing. It's volatile in the fact that it changes a lot, month to month to month, but it's not risky because it's predictable. You know, that every season this is going to happen. And so if we know it's going to happen, then we can predict it. If we can predict it, we can plan for it. Right. So all that to say if we change nothing about the business, but you simply did twice as much. What stops you from doing that?

[B]

Nothing.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Everything's quite efficient, to be frank. We can just spend more, hire more.

[A]

Well, then I think you have that answer. I think what feels annoying is you just wish that if you're Harry and David's, you wish that the other 11 months of the year people celebrated chocolate as much. Right. But you're just going to have a slow season and a hot season, and that's fine, especially. Especially since you're not losing money in the off season. So I don't think you actually have a big problem to solve here. I think we just need to do more what's working. I wish I could pull some magic business model out of a hat, but if you're profitable all the months of the year and then some months you just make more money. That just sounds like a business that has a predictable cycle.

[B]

Right?

[A]

I mean, think about the alternative. It could be unpredictable. That would suck.

[B]

Yeah, no, it's almost predictable to the percent. To be honest, it's pretty consistent. I've been trying to contemplate how to get around this without actually starting a new business. And I've been thinking about it for a couple of years. I thought maybe Alex would figure something out, but maybe it is just that, hey, it's just a feature.

[A]

No, what I would like to do is just focus all of your time on not trying to solve that problem and solving the more important problem, which is like, how do we double PPC and probably get meta ads going? Like, if you did nothing else this year, doubled PPC and just cracked meta ads, you'd hit your goal. Yeah. So it's like, if you can double the business doing one thing, why do four, Right? Yeah, that's it, man. I mean, the whole point of theory of constraints is focus. And it's just being able to say all the things you say no to. Like, there's such limited resources in a small business, the biggest one being your time, your effort and your mental bandwidth. If you can just say like, I'm not looking at this anymore because this is just a feature. Of my business. And I'm so grateful because all my competitors will be distracted by the shiny object. Like, let them worry about that while you just keep crushing it and them.

[B]

Okay, cool. Yeah, cool. Thank you.

[A]

Appreciate you, man. Congratulations.

[B]

Thank you.

[A]

All right. Thanks, brother. Talk soon. Bye. Bye. Toodaloo Teary o as they sing Sam.