Podcast Summary: The Gist – Episode featuring Ben Ansell on FAFO, FADFO, and the Myth of Immediate Consequence

Podcast Information:

• Title: The Gist
• Host/Author: Peach Fish Productions
• Description: For thirty minutes each day, Pesca challenges himself and his audience in a responsibly provocative style, getting beyond rigidity and dogma. The Gist is surprising, reasonable, and willing to critique the left, the right, either party, or any idea.
• Episode Title: Ben Ansell on FAFO, FADFO, and the Myth of Immediate Consequence
• Release Date: May 30, 2025

Introduction: Setting the Stage

In this episode of The Gist, host Mike Pesca engages in a thought-provoking conversation with Ben Ansell, a political scientist and Professor of Comparative Democratic Institutions at the University of Oxford's Nuffield College. The discussion centers around the acronyms FAFO ("F*** around and find out") and FADFO ("F*** around and don't find out"), delving into their implications in contemporary politics and policy-making.

Notable Quote:

• Mike Pesca [00:22]: "It is about what's going on throughout the world today. Fucking around and yet not finding out."

Defining FAFO and FADFO

The conversation begins with an exploration of the origins and meanings of FAFO and FADFO. FAFO, popularized through memes and political rhetoric, suggests that reckless actions will inevitably lead to consequences. FADFO, on the other hand, implies that certain actions may not yield immediate or visible repercussions, leading to prolonged or hidden outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Ansell [13:42]: "I'm glad that we're allowed to use the F word out loud because I was wondering how we were going to make it through this conversation without that."
• Mike Pesca [14:14]: "Have you been seeing a rise in FAFO? Is this a recent phenomenon that people are saying FAFO, especially online?"

FAFO and FADFO in Political Contexts

Mike and Ben delve into how FAFO has been employed in political discourse, particularly in the context of Brexit. The UK’s decision to leave the European Union is examined as a prime example of FAFO, where promises of economic growth and global influence were touted, yet the actual outcomes have been underwhelming.

Key Points:

• Brexit’s Economic Impact: Mike highlights that the UK's economic growth over the past decade has been the poorest since the Napoleonic Wars, contradicting the optimistic forecasts made during the Brexit campaign.
• Policy Making and Consequences: The discussion touches on how policies like defunding the police in Minneapolis and Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) in the US exemplify FADFO, where the intended or unintended consequences are not immediately apparent or are masked by other factors.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Pesca [17:43]: "Brexit hasn't been a total disaster by any stretch of the imagination. Right. We're still here. We're definitely not in the European Union anymore."
• Ben Ansell [22:09]: "Most people... do not spend all their time thinking about how well a policy is going. So you can get through quite a lot of fucking around until all of those things turn south."

Media Influence and Public Perception

The role of media in shaping public perception of FAFO and FADFO is critically analyzed. Ben posits that in highly polarized media environments, the public may remain unaware of negative policy outcomes due to selective reporting and echo chambers. This media landscape allows policymakers to "f*** around and don't find out," avoiding accountability by controlling the narrative.

Key Points:

• Polarized Media: The fragmentation of media sources contributes to different segments of the population having varied understandings of policy successes and failures.
• Public Awareness: The general populace gauges policy effectiveness based on immediate, tangible impacts like job performance and consumer prices rather than nuanced policy analysis.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Ansell [25:42]: "People really hate inflation and that's why it was part of the misery index in the 70s."
• Mike Pesca [34:17]: "The out party almost always wins midterms."

Theoretical Insights: Political Science Perspectives

Ben Ansell brings academic rigor to the discussion, referencing political science literature to explain how public accountability functions in democracies. He argues that while extreme policy failures garner immediate backlash, more subtle or delayed consequences of policies like FADFO often go unnoticed, leading to prolonged issues without direct public response.

Key Points:

• Public Reaction Thresholds: The public tends to react strongly only when policies cause noticeable economic or social distress.
• Institutional Resilience: Systems like bond markets and public health infrastructures can absorb shocks, masking the longer-term impacts of certain policies.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Ansell [33:11]: "The public is pretty thermostatic. So they, when the temperature gets too hot, they want to cool down and when the temperature gets too cold, they want to heat it up."

Case Studies: US and UK Political Examples

The conversation further explores specific instances in US and UK politics where FAFO and FADFO dynamics are evident:

• US Tariffs and Trade Policies: Mike cites the fluctuating tariffs during the Trump administration as an example of FAFO/FADFO, where initial aggressive policies led to immediate market reactions, but long-term consequences were mitigated or obscured.

• UK’s Liz Truss and Economic Policies: Liz Truss’s brief tenure as UK Prime Minister, marked by radical tax cuts and economic instability, serves as a case where FAFO led to swift and severe repercussions, undermining policy objectives.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Pesca [23:20]: "We are like right on the cusp between FAFO and FADFO right now. Because as those things arrive, people are going to be like, oh, yes, we did vote for the tariffs."
• Ben Ansell [42:37]: "Nigel Farage's reform actually becoming the official opposition... that is pretty thankless."

Balancing Innovation and Stability

Towards the end of the episode, Mike and Ben discuss the necessity of balancing disruptive policies with systemic stability. While "fucking around" with new ideas can lead to progress and necessary reforms, excessive recklessness without accountability can destabilize economies and societies.

Key Points:

• Disruption vs. Stability: Historical examples like the Reagan era in the US and Thatcher’s Britain illustrate how necessary disruption can revitalize stagnant systems, yet risk creating new issues if not managed carefully.
• Moderation in Policy Making: Emphasizing a balanced approach ensures that innovation does not come at the expense of systemic integrity.

Notable Quotes:

• Ben Ansell [40:26]: "There's always a balance between getting stuck in this very stagnant system where we have too much stability and then just abandoning stability entirely."

Concluding Thoughts: The Future of FAFO and FADFO

In wrapping up, the discussion anticipates future trends in political behavior and policy-making, considering how FAFO and FADFO will continue to influence global dynamics. The importance of public awareness, media responsibility, and accountable governance are underscored as essential factors in mitigating the negative aspects of these phenomena.

Notable Quotes:

• Mike Pesca [41:36]: "What do you, as a political calculator, see as the next likely FADFO culprit?"
• Ben Ansell [44:02]: "Thank you so much for having me."

Key Takeaways

1. Understanding FAFO and FADFO: These acronyms encapsulate differing attitudes towards risk and accountability in policy-making, with significant implications for democratic governance.
2. Impact of Media: Polarized and selective media reporting can obscure the true consequences of policies, enabling FADFO scenarios where negative outcomes remain hidden.
3. Public Accountability: Democratic systems rely on public perception and immediate impacts to hold policymakers accountable, but this mechanism can be bypassed in subtle or long-term policy failures.
4. Balancing Act: Effective governance requires a balance between innovative, disruptive policies and the maintenance of systemic stability to prevent economic and social turmoil.

Closing Remarks: This episode of The Gist offers a nuanced examination of contemporary political strategies and their repercussions. Through the expertise of Ben Ansell, listeners gain valuable insights into the mechanisms of accountability, the role of media, and the delicate balance required in policy innovation.