Holiday Suicides: Is That BS? with Sadie Dingfelder

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Gist – "Holiday Suicides: Is That BS?" with Sadie Dingfelder

Podcast: The Gist
Host: Mike Pesca (Peach Fish Productions)
Guest: Sadie Dingfelder (author, science writer)
Episode Date: December 10, 2025
Length: ~33 minutes
Topic: Debunking the myth that suicides spike during the holidays; data and misconceptions about mental health and the festive season

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Overview

This episode of The Gist tackles the enduring myth that suicides increase during the holiday season, with host Mike Pesca joined by science writer Sadie Dingfelder for the recurring “Is That Bullshit?” segment. Together, they analyze public beliefs, media coverage, and actual statistics surrounding holiday mental health–particularly the claim that December and Christmas are peak times for suicide. The discussion delves into why the myth persists, what the data actually show, and why some fallacies are so sticky, ending with a broader reflection on how narratives about happiness and sadness around the holidays are constructed and maintained.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Public Perception vs. Reality: The Suicide-in-December Myth

• Why do people believe suicides spike during the holidays?
  • Dingfelder cites a study by the Annenberg Public Policy Center: 80% of people believe December is the highest month for suicides.

    “The Annenberg Public Policy center did a survey and they found that 80% of people guessed that December was the month with the highest rate of suicides." (Sadie Dingfelder, 14:21)

  • Media has reinforced this belief for decades, leading people to internalize the claim as "obvious" or "intuitive."

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2. Media Responsibility and the Power of Narrative

• How did the myth become so embedded?
  • Both note how stories open with “It’s the most wonderful time of the year—except” framing, making the notion memorable.
  • Dingfelder explains that in 2023, 58% of articles on the topic still said suicides peaked during the holidays, down from 77% in 2000.

    “...something like in 2023, which was the most recent, 58% of articles on the topic said that suicides peaked during the holidays. And in 2000, it was 77%.” (Sadie Dingfelder, 15:41)

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3. The Data: Holiday Suicides Are Actually Lowest

• So, is the myth true?

  • Absolutely not. December and Christmas days are in fact the lowest for suicides.

    “It is not true... the opposite is true. December is the lowest month of first suicide attempts.” (Sadie Dingfelder, 16:06)

  • The specific period of December 24–26 is especially low, and winter months report lower suicides than spring or summer.

    “December 24 to 26 is especially low in the lowest month.” (Sadie Dingfelder, 16:36)

• Why might the rates drop?

  • Unclear, but the data across years and geographies uphold this pattern. Family gatherings, social contact, and other factors may play some role.

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4. What Actually Happens Around the Holidays?

• Are there negative health events that increase?
  • Heart attacks spike during the holidays, due at least partly to overburdened hospitals and increased stress or activity.

    “It's actually very bad for heart attacks.” (Sadie Dingfelder, 16:50)

  • Emergency room visits for injuries and accidents: falling decorations (including Christmas trees), food poisoning, cuts, lacerations, broken toes, and gastrointestinal distress all go up (18:12–18:25).
  • Increased car accidents, but fewer robberies between Christmas and New Year’s (19:01–19:07).

    “You're more likely to get into a car accident, but you're a lot less likely to get robbed.” (Sadie, 19:01)

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5. Actual Mental Health Trends: The Gallup Data

• Self-reported happiness peaks on holidays.
  • Gallup surveys (calling people randomly year-round) find Christmas and Thanksgiving routinely among the top five happiest days of the year.

    “Christmas and Thanksgiving are consistently in the top five happiest days of the year.” (Sadie, 20:15)

  • Other major holidays also rank as especially happy, likely due to time off work and family gatherings.

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6. Myths, Explanations, and Human Nature

• Mike and Sadie discuss why such a strong myth can exist and persist when data disproves it so thoroughly.

  “When the lie gets embedded, we’re so good at coming up for really rational reasons why the lie must be true.” (Mike Pesca, 20:44)

• Media narratives favor negativity because good news is less “story-worthy”:

  “People are happy at Christmas is not a story. People are miserable at Christmas is a story.” (Sadie, 21:21)

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7. Seasonal Affective Disorders and the "Winter Blahs"

• The real peak for depression is in the winter, but suicide rates actually rise in spring and summer—a paradox that puzzles psychologists.

  “The depression peaks in winter, but suicide peaks in spring and summer.” (Sadie, 21:49)

• Theories: The shift from “inactive depression” to “energetic despair” as the weather turns may contribute (22:10).

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8. International and Regional Observations

• They discuss how these trends might look in regions with different weather patterns or in countries where Christmas is celebrated in summer (e.g., Australia), but Dingfelder says more data would be needed for clear conclusions (23:04).

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9. Why Doesn’t the Mental Health Community Push Back Harder?

• Despite the myth, awareness around mental health is important, since individual variation is vast—there are always people who struggle during the holidays regardless of the aggregate data.

  “Just because on average, everyone's happy, there's definitely some people who are attempting suicide and are extremely depressed during the holidays…” (Sadie, 23:47)

• Only 15% of Americans can name the national suicide hotline number (988), highlighting the value in continued public messaging.

  “Only 15% of Americans know that there is a national suicide hotline that is 988.” (Sadie, 24:20)

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10. The Verdict: “Is That Bullshit?”

• Mike’s summary:

  “So, do suicides go up around the holidays? December 25 is one of the most dangerous days of the year?... Is that all bullshit, Sadie?”

• Sadie’s final answer:

  “That is all bullshit.” (Sadie, 25:11)

• Mike wraps up:

  “It's all bullshit, but it's all also truly beginning to look a lot like Christmas with happy people… according to Annenberg Surveys.” (25:12)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the myth’s persistence:
  “I think that the media. I mean, there's just tons of stories that always start with, like, it's the most wonderful time of the year, except not because suicides spike…” – Sadie Dingfelder, 15:07

• On storytelling and belief:
  “When the lie gets embedded, we’re so good at coming up for really rational reasons why the lie must be true.” – Mike Pesca, 20:44

• On the paradox of happiness:
  “Christmas and Thanksgiving are consistently in the top five happiest days of the year.” – Sadie Dingfelder, 20:15

• On media motivations:
  “People are happy at Christmas is not a story. People are miserable at Christmas is a story.” – Sadie Dingfelder, 21:21

• Final debunk:
  “That is all bullshit.” – Sadie Dingfelder, 25:11

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Key Timestamps

• 11:17 — Segment start: “Is That Bullshit?” on holiday suicides
• 14:21 — 80% believe December is the peak suicide month
• 15:41 — Media statistics on perpetuating the myth
• 16:06 — Data reveal: December lowest for suicides
• 16:36 — December 24–26 especially low
• 16:50 — Rise in heart attacks during holidays
• 19:01 — More car accidents, fewer robberies (holiday stats)
• 20:15 — Gallup data on happiest days
• 21:49 — Depression peaks in winter, suicides in spring/summer
• 24:20 — Only 15% know the 988 hotline number
• 25:11 — Official “Is That Bullshit?” verdict

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Tone and Style

The conversation is fast-paced, witty, and slightly irreverent—typical of The Gist. Both Mike and Sadie combine skeptical curiosity with playful banter, using humor to drive home their analysis while remaining sensitive to the subject matter.

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Summary

Contrary to long-standing media narratives and popular belief, suicides do not increase during the December holidays; in fact, they decline, making Christmas and its surrounding days the lowest for suicides in the year. This myth is perpetuated by compelling but inaccurate storytelling, not data. The persistence of such urban legends reflects both media incentives and a human bias for compelling narratives. While the holidays do bring upticks in accidents and heart attacks, they are also among the happiest days according to self-reported data. Still, it's crucial to recognize that individuals experience the holidays differently, and that mental health awareness and support—such as promoting the 988 hotline—remain important.

Bottom line: The “holiday suicide spike” is definitively false. Spread the word—and maybe enjoy your Christmas dim sum.

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Transcript

[Mike Pesca]

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[Mike Pesca]

We're running a couple of wonderful deals for the holidays and today I want to tell you about our sub stack behind the Paywall Price Discount. So it used to be that to get access to all our Just List offerings where I make great jokes, where I tell you about stories you might not have heard about, for instance, the roller skating elephant and his love affair with a woman, that there's a lot of lawsuits involved, there's a lot of chicanery and almost near death experiences. I found that story. I'm giving it to you. So it's not just the fines. It's how I break down, say, an Oval Office visit in a way you won't find on the Gist because I have too many things to get to. So this is all on substack. It is for paid subscribers to our substack. The Just List is now. Are you ready? $49 a year. It's going up to 5999 because of tariffs after January 4th. But from now to January 4th I want you to be able to get in for $49 a year. And the way to do it is to text 33777 and text the word Mike. I'm Mike. I'm giving you the Gist list because I care. And if you care about supporting weird stories about trapping bobcats in Indiana and a lot of other things, you will subscribe for only 49. Not the 55 it was until now. Not the 5,999 that these Trump tariffs are forcing us into, but for only $49. Text Mike 233777.

It's Wednesday, December 10, 2025 from Peach Fish Productions. It's the Gist. I'm Mike Pe.

Loves to talk tough when it comes to tariffs. He was in Pennsylvania yesterday and he was talking well Actually, I'm not going to say tough. He meant it to be tough. But listen to as his meandering speech doesn't get the applause he thought it would. On the go to subject of tariffs, he's barely done any rallies since being reelected. His go to tariff talk doesn't land. So listen to what he has to pivot to because the man needs some applause at some point.

[Donald Trump]

I mean, two years ago, now it's starting to fill up. The tar tariffs have filled it up because people are coming here. Other steel companies are coming to Pennsylvania now because they don't want to spend 100%, 50%, 25% of tariffs are all coming in. It's amazing. You know, they the word. Remember when I said tariff, my favorite word is tariff. True. But then I got a lot of heat from the fake news. Look at all of them back there.

I took a lot of he, I got up early on, I said, my favorite is turning out. You know, tariffs are bringing us hundreds of billions of dollars.

[Mike Pesca]

Okay, so what I want to do, yes, it was the media that took it on the chin, but the media won't make prices more affordable. Now here's the thing with tariffs. If you really look at the economics of it, tariffs, mostly the threat of tariffs so far haven't made prices that much higher or the 3% of inflation, maybe a half of the 3. You know, maybe it'd be a 2.5 instead of 3 if it weren't for tariffs. But here's where Trump's talk cuts the other way. He benefited from his, shall we say, quasi bullshit economics on tariffs. There's no real good economist who says tariffs are going to do what he says they will do or in any way lower prices, certainly in the short term. So his talk on tariffs benefit him. And now he's getting cut, cut down by that same talk as every interviewer that a Republican or administration official goes before does the thing where they list the price of different goods and then Scott Besant or whoever is the Republican or administration official has to counter with, okay, that's that good, but look at this. Good. And then they say, and this is a hard thing to argue from, well, what about the tariffs? Trump's taking some of them off in an effort to lower prices. Doesn't that prove that tariffs being on don't lower prices? And there's a less good answer to that. So my analysis is tariffs are bad. Trump liked the tariffs because I really think he thought they were good. He definitely liked the tariffs because other world leaders had to pay attention to him and negotiate with him as he threatened the tariffs. But the tariffs never really were put into effect. They don't really affect the prices of goods or affordability. But because he talked them up so much, he now is getting hoisted by his own petard, which now cost 25% more because almost all petards are manufactured in China. On the show today we will talk about Texas politics and the force, the hidden force of politics that is so powerful and so often under examined. Counter mobilization but first it is the holidays, a time for cheer, a time where FA la la la is often followed by blah. The idea of the Christmas or seasonal doldrums has taken hold. We have been told that even suicides skyrocket during the holidays. Yes, we've been told that. But is it the truth? We must ask, is that bullshit? And when we ask is that bullshit, we ask Sadie Dingfelder to come by with either coal or mistletoe in her stocking. Sadie Dingfelder, Holiday Depression Is that bullshit? Up next.

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[Sadie Dingfelder]

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[Mike Pesca]

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Hi and welcome to December. It's been December for a little bit now. You know what that means, the holidays. Or should I say, you know what that means, the holidays. It all depends on because as we've always heard, with the holidays come depression. And I'll Say it. An increase in suicide Or Is that Bullshit? And when we play Is that Bullshit? We are joined by our famous and favorite face Blind reporter and author of Do I Know you? A Face Blind Reporter's Journey into the Science of Sight, Memory and Imagination. Sadie Dingfelder. Welcome back to your segment on the gist.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Thank you for having me.

[Mike Pesca]

Do you have any holiday traditions? And perhaps that includes work at the suicide hotline?

[Donald Trump]

No.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

You know, for a long time I felt like my holiday tradition was like the classic Jewish, you know, Christmas. What is it? It's like a movie and Chinese food.

[Mike Pesca]

Chinese food, yes. Made famous by a SNL short. Christmas Time for the Jews. I don't know if you've ever seen that. If not, I'll send it to you. It's fantastic.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

I would love to see it. That sounds funny.

[Christmas Time for the Jews Singer]

Round the Christmas tree they stay at home and party with their Goetia family. They disappear one day each year and pass the eggnog round. But it's all right because that's the night the Jews control the town.

Well, it happens every year on Christmas Eve. All our happy Christian people take their leave. Yeah, the streets are deserted. And best week news. It's Christmas time for the Jews.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah.

[Christmas Time for the Jews Singer]

My Holland, that morning, 6:00pm Ain't nobody recreated left us. Hell yeah. The three wise man. That's.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah, so I felt. But then my brother, you know, he, he, he does the whole Christmas thing now with his kids and his wife and so I totally go. I make everyone sing Christmas carols and I'm basically Sadie the magic Jewish Christmas elf.

[Mike Pesca]

Is his wife a non Jew? Is she a Christmas celebrator?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

She is a Christmas celebrator.

[Mike Pesca]

Yeah. That's, that's how we get there. So when you heard they were going to be celebrating Christmas, were you a little afraid? I mean, you hadn't looked into this yet? Oh, no. I hear suicide Spike.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

You know it. I wasn't that worried, but I think I did, I did know that that was a thing that, that people believed. Yeah. And so, and it made sense to me. It made like intuitive sense that people might be despairing around Christmas because everyone expects you to be happy.

[Mike Pesca]

Yeah. That's interesting. So let's just start there. When you said you knew there was a thing people believed, are we sure that people believe it? We hear that people believe it. Do we have stats on that?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah. The Annenberg Public Policy center did a survey and they found that 80% of people guessed that December was the month with the highest rate of suicides and.

[Mike Pesca]

Is that you said it made sense to you, but do you think. I don't know if Annenberg asked about this. Is that intuitive or is that they've heard it so often that maybe there's the first shock. I remember when I first heard it, really. They're supposed to be joyous. The quote, most wonderful time of the year. And then you hear the fact that you just cited, oh, it's all because of expectations. And the people who don't have that get extra sad. And so then it becomes a fact in your head, or at least a perceived fact anyway. Do you have any insights about how that fact actually gets in people's heads?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah, like you said, I think that the media. I mean, there's just tons of stories that always start with, like, it's the most wonderful time of the year, except not because suicides spike and.

[Mike Pesca]

Right, right. And if those reporters are, like, really good, they'll have the music most wonderful time and then it'll go.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Or like the record scratch.

[Mike Pesca]

Depressed yells. But for some people, holiday cheer is holiday fear.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

But yeah. So the same.

Pin survey said that something like in 2023, which was the most recent, 58% of articles on the topic said that suicides peaked during the holidays. And in 2000, it was 77%.

[Mike Pesca]

Wow.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Wow.

[Mike Pesca]

Massive assertion that this is going on. Before we get to. Well, let's just get to it. Is it true? Is it true?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

No. As you might have guessed from the fact that there's a media study on it, it is not true.

[Mike Pesca]

Right.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

In fact, it's. It's the opposite is true. Suicide attempts are down. I mean, December is the lowest month of first suicide attempts.

[Mike Pesca]

So when you say the opposite is true, it's not just like, below average. There are 12 months. It's not number one. It's number 12 in terms of suicides.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah.

[Mike Pesca]

And it's a 31. It's also a 31 day month, so you would think there'd be more opportunity. Right?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah.

[Rubrik Announcer]

No.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

And. And then that specific time period, December 24 to 26, is especially low in the lowest month.

[Mike Pesca]

Wow. So December is a really, really safe month.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

It's a really safe month for suicide attempts. It's actually very bad for heart attacks.

[Mike Pesca]

Oh, tell me about that.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

I mean, it's related to the holidays, but no one really knows what's going on there. But let's see, you're much more likely to have a heart attack and then also to die from a heart attack because the emergency rooms are understaffed.

[Mike Pesca]

Yeah. That one Makes sense, the die makes sense, and maybe even the have. But then again, aren't I just telling myself a story that when I hear a fact, I fill in with the reasons why it may be true? Oh, there's stress, there's excitement. You're lifting things. You got in a fight. They're just. There is a lot more interaction and stress, good or bad, on Christmas day. But you know, if someone, if Annenberg came out and said, actually it's the least heart attack day, I'd have to invent a story.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

But you know what? I think they did ask for that study. They asked. Part of it was they asked people who had had heart attacks if anything had immediately preceded it. And arguments were on the list. I don't think they were number one, but family arguments.

[Mike Pesca]

Yeah, for me it was. I asked for an Atari and I got a Colecovision and I should have been happy, but I had a heart attack. What else? What else goes good? Or let's concentrate on the bad on Christmas day around the holidays. Not your holidays, not half of my holidays, but the holidays. Christmas.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Well, so what does land people in the emergency room? Are things like falling decorations, food poisoning, cuts and lacerations, broken toes, and gastrointestinal distress.

[Mike Pesca]

Do we really need a survey? Or could we just watch National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation, find most of those falling decorations that. That includes the tree or just freestanding decorations?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

I think that can include. That does include the tree. Uh huh.

[Mike Pesca]

And does that include falling from the top of the house, putting up the decorations?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

You know what, I looked into that and it didn't look like falls were spiking around Christmas. Just a casual observer.

[Mike Pesca]

So interesting. Anything else nonspecifically or maybe only tangentially, Christmas, the holidays related, that leads to an increase in accidents or deaths.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah, you're more likely to get into a car accident, but you're a lot less likely to get robbed.

[Mike Pesca]

Less likely to get robbed. Interesting. So that rebuts what I've learned from Home Alone. Once I was done watching Christmas Vacation, I watched Home Alone. That was a Christmas movie, right? Yes, of course. It goes to church. Yeah, they leave him at Christmas. All right, this is a pretty good picture in terms of suicide. A little bit of a bleak picture in terms of things that can get you down. Any other major findings about mental health and the holidays?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Well, so I was really excited to find out that Gallup calls people all throughout the year and asks them how they felt the previous day. Right.

[Mike Pesca]

That's good because like self reports on how you're doing can be skewed just for a few reasons. One is in America, we have a positivity bias. So if you compare us in the French, we're. We're supposedly happier, but if you call us every day, we're no more happy. So this is. What do they call these kind of point. Is it a point in time survey?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

I guess. Gosh. It's not longitudinal. I have no idea what they would call it. But I guess it's a very brief retrospective because you're thinking about yesterday.

Sometimes they call people on holidays just by random chance or the day after holidays. And Christmas and Thanksgiving are consistently in the top five happiest days of the year. And other holidays like Memorial Day, New Year's and Independence Day are also regularly in the top happiest days actually enjoy getting together with their family and celebrating the holidays.

[Mike Pesca]

Yeah. Also not working. People don't work those days.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Right? Yeah.

[Mike Pesca]

Not working probably makes you less suicidal, I would think. This is a gigantic lie and it's all a bunch of negativity. It's also an interesting social experiment. Is that when we told you this gigantic lie that this day that is among the happiest causes the most suicide and that this month that is the least suicidal leads to the most suicide. When the lie gets embedded, we're so good at coming up for really rational reasons why the lie must be true. This is. I think this goes deeper than just Christmas isn't suicidal type finding. This goes right to the core of human nature and the media, Sadie. The media.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

It does because, you know, people are happy at Christmas is not a story. People are miserable at Christmas is a story. Though maybe now that everyone believed the prior one. Now this is the story again. Yeah.

[Mike Pesca]

Well, what about. There's got to be. This is what. There has to be something to the winter blahs. I don't need a survey or anything to back that up. Right. Sunlight correlates to more happiness, less sunlight, just coldness in most parts of the US that's got to be true, right?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah. This is a paradox that has a lot of psychologists confused is the depression peaks in winter, but suicide peaks in spring and summer.

[Mike Pesca]

Okay, interesting. The any idea why? And again, I'm going to take the explanations with a huge grain of mistletoe because explanations have misled.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah. The going guess is that sort of an act of depression gives way to like energetic despair.

[Mike Pesca]

Oh, okay. Let's do something about it. Right, right, Right. I don't know if suicides are higher in Scandinavian countries. They probably just have like a baseline of in active depression, it being so, so bleak and dreary, but Christmasy all the time as well. I also wonder, and it's okay if you don't have the stats in front of you, but so much of the stuff of what we say about Christmas correlates to, you know, being cold and.

Less daylight. So even in parts of the U.S. you know, Arizona, where it's not going to be cold, or especially Christmas is December 25th around the world. Christmas is in summer in Australia. I really wonder if they have these same stats and also the same myth around Christmas. That'd be an interesting question to follow.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Yeah, I actually think I did see that data, but I can't say for sure what it was.

[Mike Pesca]

I think not saying for sure would have been the best advice I would have given to people who have been reporting it thus far. Do you have any idea, any supposition, why the mental health community hasn't really pushed back on this? Is there something useful about people thinking, you know, watch out for suicide, watch out for depression, oppressed family members around the holiday? It would seem. Because what I'm saying is it would seem that if you have this big 180 degree type myth, it doesn't serve anyone, even people who really have given their life over for mental health awareness and suicide prevention to have the myth continue.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

That's true. But I do think, you know, there's so much individual variation, like, just because on average, everyone's happy. There's definitely some people who are attempting suicide and are extremely depressed during the holidays, and you don't want to leave them out of your story, I think. And yeah, and so I think that it is kind of important to say that. And on that topic, I found out that only 15% of Americans know that there is a national suicide hotline that is 988. It's like 911, but with AIDS.

[Mike Pesca]

Oh. Although I hear that the Trump administration had tried to defund it.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Maybe did.

[Mike Pesca]

We'll have to report on that.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Did you know there was one? I didn't know there was one.

[Mike Pesca]

I only knew there was one for defunding. Well, I think they defunded some LGBT suicide hotlines, but if you don't know the number, there's no real point anyway, unless, you know, you put it on a sticker somewhere. All right, so this is going to be one of the less fascinating or interesting or climactic versions of Is that bullshit? Because it's such bullshit, we couldn't help but talking about how bullshit it was, but we have to have the official pronouncement su go up around the holidays. December 25 is one of the most dangerous days of the year. If you want to preserve your mental health, just avoid or be extremely aware during the 12 days of Christmas. Is that all bullshit? Sadie?

[Sadie Dingfelder]

That is all bullshit.

[Mike Pesca]

It's all bullshit, but it's all also truly beginning to look a lot like Christmas with happy people. And not just elves, but all of us according to Annenberg Surveys in the air. I want to thank you. Sadie Dingfelder is the author of Do I Know you? A Face Blind Reporter's Journey into the Science of Sight, Memory, and Imagination. Thanks so much Sadie.

[Sadie Dingfelder]

Thank you.

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[Mike Pesca]

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[Mike Pesca]

And now the spiel Jasmine Crockett has announced that she will be running for Senate in her home state of Texas. I will read now. The Texas Tribune is not an outsider casting a gimlet eye on the Crockett candidacy. This is the Texas Tribune. Crockett, a second term congresswoman, has skyrocketed to fame through viral spectrum chats with Republicans and has a frequent presence in the Democratic media ecosystem. The 44 year old's fiery clashes with Republicans have earned her legions of social media followers and donors, turning her into one of the party's most prolific fundraisers. Of all those phrases, only the last one possibly augurs well for her chances of winning in Texas. Now, first of all, if John Cornyn defeats Ken Paxson, also the fiery viral spatty challenger, then no Democrat is going to win. And it's actually very, very likely that in Texas, no Democrat is going to win. Why do I say this? Well, they've been saying no Democrat is going to win for a long time. This was raised as early as 2012 when Juan Castro was saying, you know, no Democrat has won Texas for eight years. 18 years. 20 years. Will now in 2026 be up to 30 years. 32 years. Bob Bullock was elected Texas lieutenant governor in 1994. That's 32 years ago. The next time they vote, people who cannot be considered young were not alive the last time Texas elected a Democrat. And by the way, by the time he was done, he was endorsing George W. Bush. So this isn't even like Florida, a state which is gone Republican and been almost entirely Republican, with little exceptions here and there. I once on this show did a tally of every race that a Democrat lost on a statewide level. And this includes, if you count, and you should, the railroad commissioner and the governor and the lieutenant governor. But there are statewide judge races. Hundreds of Democrats in a row have lost to Republicans. Why would Crockett be the exception? I don't know that you will. That is me saying, I don't know that you will. Colin Allred, who was maybe a better choice for that state, he left the race. The remaining candidate, the remaining, you know, legit small candidate is James Talarico, a state rep who is known as a strong communicator and for his progressive brand of Christianity. Crockett tried to push Talarico out of the race. Not nothing nefarious is what politicians do, from what I understand and what the reporting is. She and the other two talked about divvying up the statewide attorney general and governor and Senate race, but Crockett wanted Senate. So there she is running for Senate. I will say this all is not lost. If you want Democrats to possibly win in Texas, they don't have to win statewide. They can win reelection or election to the House of Representatives. And even though the redistricting plan that the Republic Republicans put forward and that the United States Supreme Court has just allowed after an interregnum of two out of three judges on a panel in between those decisions saying no, even though that has happened and this redistricting is supposed to favor Republicans, I want to remind you of the greatest phrase in politics, the most overlooked phrase, and that is counter mobilization. You thought I was going to say wide stance, counter mobilization. Because all the headlines go to this or that nefarious stratagem where Republicans, usually in the media, I read Republicans are trying to suppress the vote of Democrats. But then there is a counter mobilization and Democrats or potential Democrats say, hey, I don't want my vote suppressed. Hey, I heard you're trying to make the lines longer to vote or eliminate polling places or make me show id. This is now in the news. I am going to make sure my elderly aunt comes out, or I am the elderly aunt, possibly thinking of myself as just the aunt, but these young kids, they've sure gotten younger. But the aunt who comes out because politics are in the news or this notion that, hey, they don't want me to vote, I'm going to vote. This is counter mobilization. It's why so many voter suppression tactics in the United States, which still more or less allows for. If someone is motivated to vote, they get to vote and we count their votes. It's a really important part of the system. Counter mobilization rears its head. And for instance, the Supreme Court throwing out the portions of election law which said you can't gerrymander based on certainly partisanship and even racial gerrymanders, when those are passed or when portions of the Voter Rights act aren't enforced, this makes the news. And people, black people in southern states, especially in this example, go out, they counter mobilize and they vote. And so now counter mobilization could very well take effect. And so all of the Republicans best drawn plans might come to naught. They drew those maps when politics, the lay of the land and the maps. They literally drew the maps when the map said, oh, this is a for instance Trump +12 voting district. Well, that was when they drew the maps. And I'll quote as the New York Times does, Michelle Lowe Solis, the chair of the Bayar County Democratic Party, San Antonio. The assumption that Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2024 would continue to vote Republican is potentially a bad assumption. We have a good shot at this, says that Democrat. Indeed they do. Another data point. Henry Cuellar, who Trump pardoned and maybe thought he'd flip Republican, is still a Democrat, is still running for office and has decided not to become a Republican. And Trump's mad at him. But this tells me something. Henry Cuellar is good at politics. He's in fact so good that he could get Donald Trump to pardon him pre pardon him from an indictment. He's decided that Democrat is the best brand to be associated with in his county. Added all up. I do not think that Texas is lost for individual Democrats, but statewide, I don't know that we'll be seeing a Senator Crockett anytime soon.

And that's it for today's show. Cory War is the producer of the Gist. Kathleen Sykes helps him with the Gist list. Leah Yan is our production coordinator. Jeff Craig does our socials. Michelle Pesca is COO of Peach Fish Productions. Improve and thanks for listening.

[Chris Gethard]

Hi, I'm Chris Gethard and I'm very excited to tell you about Beautiful Anonymous, a podcast where I talk to random people on the phone. I tweet out a phone number. Thousands of people try to call. Talk to one of them. They stay anonymous. I can't hang up. That's all the rules. I never know what's gonna happen. We get serious ones. I've talked with meth dealers on their way to prison. I've talked to people who survived mass shootings. Crazy, funny ones. I talked to a guy with a goose slap. Somebody who dresses up as a pirate on the weekends. I never know what's gonna happen. It's a great show. Subscribe today. Beautiful.

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[Sadie Dingfelder]

Welcome welcome to the newsworthy.

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