Mike Pesca (26:33)
And now the spiel Jasmine Crockett has announced that she will be running for Senate in her home state of Texas. I will read now. The Texas Tribune is not an outsider casting a gimlet eye on the Crockett candidacy. This is the Texas Tribune. Crockett, a second term congresswoman, has skyrocketed to fame through viral spectrum chats with Republicans and has a frequent presence in the Democratic media ecosystem. The 44 year old's fiery clashes with Republicans have earned her legions of social media followers and donors, turning her into one of the party's most prolific fundraisers. Of all those phrases, only the last one possibly augurs well for her chances of winning in Texas. Now, first of all, if John Cornyn defeats Ken Paxson, also the fiery viral spatty challenger, then no Democrat is going to win. And it's actually very, very likely that in Texas, no Democrat is going to win. Why do I say this? Well, they've been saying no Democrat is going to win for a long time. This was raised as early as 2012 when Juan Castro was saying, you know, no Democrat has won Texas for eight years. 18 years. 20 years. Will now in 2026 be up to 30 years. 32 years. Bob Bullock was elected Texas lieutenant governor in 1994. That's 32 years ago. The next time they vote, people who cannot be considered young were not alive the last time Texas elected a Democrat. And by the way, by the time he was done, he was endorsing George W. Bush. So this isn't even like Florida, a state which is gone Republican and been almost entirely Republican, with little exceptions here and there. I once on this show did a tally of every race that a Democrat lost on a statewide level. And this includes, if you count, and you should, the railroad commissioner and the governor and the lieutenant governor. But there are statewide judge races. Hundreds of Democrats in a row have lost to Republicans. Why would Crockett be the exception? I don't know that you will. That is me saying, I don't know that you will. Colin Allred, who was maybe a better choice for that state, he left the race. The remaining candidate, the remaining, you know, legit small candidate is James Talarico, a state rep who is known as a strong communicator and for his progressive brand of Christianity. Crockett tried to push Talarico out of the race. Not nothing nefarious is what politicians do, from what I understand and what the reporting is. She and the other two talked about divvying up the statewide attorney general and governor and Senate race, but Crockett wanted Senate. So there she is running for Senate. I will say this all is not lost. If you want Democrats to possibly win in Texas, they don't have to win statewide. They can win reelection or election to the House of Representatives. And even though the redistricting plan that the Republic Republicans put forward and that the United States Supreme Court has just allowed after an interregnum of two out of three judges on a panel in between those decisions saying no, even though that has happened and this redistricting is supposed to favor Republicans, I want to remind you of the greatest phrase in politics, the most overlooked phrase, and that is counter mobilization. You thought I was going to say wide stance, counter mobilization. Because all the headlines go to this or that nefarious stratagem where Republicans, usually in the media, I read Republicans are trying to suppress the vote of Democrats. But then there is a counter mobilization and Democrats or potential Democrats say, hey, I don't want my vote suppressed. Hey, I heard you're trying to make the lines longer to vote or eliminate polling places or make me show id. This is now in the news. I am going to make sure my elderly aunt comes out, or I am the elderly aunt, possibly thinking of myself as just the aunt, but these young kids, they've sure gotten younger. But the aunt who comes out because politics are in the news or this notion that, hey, they don't want me to vote, I'm going to vote. This is counter mobilization. It's why so many voter suppression tactics in the United States, which still more or less allows for. If someone is motivated to vote, they get to vote and we count their votes. It's a really important part of the system. Counter mobilization rears its head. And for instance, the Supreme Court throwing out the portions of election law which said you can't gerrymander based on certainly partisanship and even racial gerrymanders, when those are passed or when portions of the Voter Rights act aren't enforced, this makes the news. And people, black people in southern states, especially in this example, go out, they counter mobilize and they vote. And so now counter mobilization could very well take effect. And so all of the Republicans best drawn plans might come to naught. They drew those maps when politics, the lay of the land and the maps. They literally drew the maps when the map said, oh, this is a for instance Trump +12 voting district. Well, that was when they drew the maps. And I'll quote as the New York Times does, Michelle Lowe Solis, the chair of the Bayar County Democratic Party, San Antonio. The assumption that Latino voters who voted for Trump in 2024 would continue to vote Republican is potentially a bad assumption. We have a good shot at this, says that Democrat. Indeed they do. Another data point. Henry Cuellar, who Trump pardoned and maybe thought he'd flip Republican, is still a Democrat, is still running for office and has decided not to become a Republican. And Trump's mad at him. But this tells me something. Henry Cuellar is good at politics. He's in fact so good that he could get Donald Trump to pardon him pre pardon him from an indictment. He's decided that Democrat is the best brand to be associated with in his county. Added all up. I do not think that Texas is lost for individual Democrats, but statewide, I don't know that we'll be seeing a Senator Crockett anytime soon.
