Podcast Summary: The Gist

Episode Title: Julia Minson: You're Probably 50% Wrong
Host: Mike Pesca (Peach Fish Productions)
Guest: Julia Minson, Behavioral Scientist, Harvard Kennedy School
Date: March 27, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Mike Pesca explores the art and science of disagreement with Julia Minson, author of How to Disagree Better. Drawing on behavioral research, personal anecdotes, and current events, Pesca and Minson discuss why productive disagreement is hard, the cognitive biases that get in our way, and practical strategies for genuinely understanding divergent perspectives. They tackle polarized debates (COVID, politics, misinformation), the hazards of certainty, and the humility required to navigate complex discourse—underscoring the episode’s central theme: “You’re probably 50% wrong.”

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Nature of Disagreement and Naive Realism

• Naive Realism Defined:

  • We all walk around assuming our perceptions are objective reality and everyone else is, at best, misinformed. (15:31)
  • Quote:
    “Naive realism is sort of this mindset that we walk around the world with, that we kind of believe that we get it, that we see the world in this objective, reasonable, realistic way.”
    — Julia Minson [15:31]

• Objectivity Is Slippery:

  • While objectivity exists in some contexts, even when there’s a “right” answer, people’s judgments are often biased.
  • “Humans are not very objective.” —Julia Minson [16:32]

• Illustrative Analogy:

  • Julia’s experience as a ballroom dancer highlights how perspective shapes perceived reality—even when observing the same event.
  • “At the time you were looking at the mirror, he was looking away from the mirror and could not see. And therefore you each had different perceptions of the reality of what was occurring.” —Mike Pesca [17:30]

Tactics for Better Disagreement

• Boomer Asking:

  • Coined by Mike Yeomans, describes asking questions simply to pivot the conversation back to yourself.
  • It’s a bad strategy and tends to backfire.
  • “You ask a question simply with the goal of having it boomerang back to yourself… it backfires pretty consistently.”
    —Julia Minson [14:17]

• Avoid Performative Listening:

  • Nodding only in anticipation of jumping in with your own point isn’t genuine and is usually detected. [15:11]

• Clarify Your Goal in Disagreement:

  • Before entering a tough conversation (vaccine hesitancy, political divides), ask:
    • Is your goal persuasion, understanding, preserving the relationship, or something else?
  • “Many of us enter these conversations by default with the goal of persuading the other person...and of course, most of us who have attempted that feat have realized that it doesn’t get us very far.” —Julia Minson [18:46]

Humility and the ‘50% Wrong’ Principle

• Coddling the ‘Wrong’ and the Risks of Certainty:

  • We’re often urged to “coddle” views we see as wrong, but research and experience suggest humility because we’re likely not always right ourselves.
  • “We don’t know who is wrong and who is right. Right? We think we’re right. That’s why we’re saying the things we’re saying. But that is a hell of an assumption, right?”
    —Julia Minson [44:46]

• Quantitative Example: The M&M Jar

  • When people guess the number of M&Ms in a jar, averages are always closer to truth than individuals. Yet few want to “average” their opinions with others’.
  • "The chance that you're more wrong than the other guy is approximately 50%." —Julia Minson [46:31]

Navigating Misinformation and Pandemic Communication

• Why People Believe ‘Misinformation’:

  • People are often convinced by credible sources who turn out to be wrong (as in Julia’s example with her vaccine-hesitant brother-in-law and Dr. Robert Malone).
  • “The conversation convinced me that my brother in law is not crazy, which I think is important when you are in a family relationship.” —Julia Minson [25:03]

• Public Discourse & Censorship:

  • Julia is skeptical of efforts to censor “dangerous” ideas, emphasizing a robust marketplace of ideas.
  • "I'm a big fan of the marketplace of ideas and … recognizing that truly terrible ideas usually show themselves to be truly, truly terrible." —Julia Minson [28:34]

• COVID Messaging and Aaron Rodgers Example:

  • Overly confident or moralizing messaging can backfire, causing resistance and mistrust. Communication should balance clarity and humility—acknowledging uncertainty can build trust over time.
  • “If you make people feel heard, they no longer need to keep repeating themselves.” —Julia Minson [38:17]
  • “If you sound certain and then are proven to be wrong, then…trust has sort of eroded.” —Julia Minson [43:15]

Polarization, Perception, and False Polarization

• We Overestimate Extremes:

  • People are prone to exaggerate how radical the other side is.
  • “We actually overestimate how extreme people are on the other side…when they imagine the views of the opposing side, they imagine it to be, like, very monolithic and very homogenous.” —Julia Minson [35:26]

• Example Misperceptions:

  • Republicans overestimate the proportion of Democrats who are gay; Democrats overestimate how many Republicans are millionaires.
    —Mike Pesca [34:12]

• People Hold Nuanced Views—but Don’t Credit Others With Nuance:

  • New research shows people still diverge from the ‘party line’ in some beliefs, but imagine the other side as more homogeneous and extreme. [34:31]

The HERE Framework for Difficult Conversations

• H.E.R.E. Acronym Explained:
  • H: Hedging your claims
  • E: Emphasizing agreement
  • A: Acknowledging other perspectives
  • R: Reframing to the positive
  • The framework works better than moralizing or didactic approaches—relevant for public health officials, politicians, and everyday discourse. [35:26]

Memorable Quotes and Moments

• “We need to coddle the wrong.” —Mike Pesca [44:12]
• “You’re probably 50% wrong.” —Julia Minson (paraphrased throughout)
• “As soon as you start recognizing that persuasion is most likely to just get you into sort of an escalating argument that doesn’t go anywhere, you start thinking, okay, what could I be doing instead?” —Julia Minson [19:45]
• “I think having some humility about our rightness in the moment is one of the key arguments that I make in my book.” —Julia Minson [27:37]

Notable Timestamps

• 12:42 – Introduction of Julia Minson and her background
• 14:17 – Explanation of “boomer asking”
• 15:31 – Naive realism and why we’re convinced we’re right
• 18:46 – On trying (and failing) to persuade others
• 24:49 – Julia’s COVID vaccine family example
• 28:34 – On the dangers of excluding “dangerous” ideas from discourse
• 30:08 – Disagreement, rumination, and polarization stats from Minson’s book
• 34:12 to 35:26 – False polarization and examples of misperceived extremes
• 35:26 – Introduction and application of the H.E.R.E. framework
• 41:32 – The social system of public communication
• 44:12 – “Coddling the wrong” and humility in disagreement
• 46:31 – The 50% principle: average yourself with others

Conclusion

How to Disagree Better isn’t about passivity or “going along to get along.” Instead, Minson’s research and Pesca’s probing underline how humility, deep listening, and honest acknowledgment of our own fallibility allow for richer, more productive disagreement. The episode ultimately challenges listeners to assume they’re probably only 50% right—and to approach every discord with curiosity and good faith.

For more: Read Julia Minson’s How to Disagree Better and subscribe to The Gist for more conversations that interrogate dogma from all sides.