The Gist: Episode Summary – "Macedo and Frances Lee In Covid's Wake"

Release Date: April 22, 2025
Host: Mike Pesca
Guests: Steven Macedo and Francis Lee, Authors of "In Covid's Wake, How Our Politics Failed Us"

Introduction

In this compelling episode of The Gist, host Mike Pesca delves into the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, featuring an in-depth conversation with Princeton political science professors Steven Macedo and Francis Lee. Their book, "In Covid's Wake, How Our Politics Failed Us", serves as the centerpiece for exploring the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the pandemic and the broader political and societal ramifications.

Pre-Pandemic Expectations vs. Reality

Francis Lee begins by outlining the pre-pandemic assessments of NPIs such as lockdowns, mask mandates, and school closures. These measures were scrutinized in multiple pandemic planning documents, which consistently highlighted their "poor" evidence of efficacy and "considerable" associated costs (11:12).

Key Insight:

• Lack of Evidence: Before the pandemic, experts largely agreed that NPIs would have limited effectiveness against a respiratory virus and would entail significant economic and social costs.

Empirical Findings: NPIs Did Not Deliver Expected Outcomes

Francis Lee presents empirical data showing that states with stringent and prolonged lockdowns, primarily Democratic, did not achieve better COVID-19 outcomes compared to Republican states, which implemented fewer restrictions (12:57). This trend persisted until the advent of vaccines, after which Republican states saw higher mortality rates due to vaccine hesitancy.

Quote:

"There’s no evidence that it worked... we just don't see a payoff in terms of morbidity or deaths from COVID in those states that had the longer school closures, the longer lockdowns and the more stringent application of these measures."
— Francis Lee (12:57)

Susan Ettlinger adds that similar patterns were observed across Europe, where stringency of restrictions did not correlate with better COVID-19 outcomes, emphasizing that countries like Sweden, with minimal interventions, fared comparably to those with multiple lockdowns (16:25).

Risk-Benefit Analysis: Ignoring the Costs

The discussion shifts to the risk-benefit analysis conducted (or rather, neglected) during the pandemic. Mike Pesca points out that while the benefits of saving lives were touted as paramount, the risks and costs—ranging from economic downturns to social disruptions—were largely disregarded.

Quote:

"Whose fault was it that we just ignored the risk part of the risk-benefit analysis while we were going through it?"
— Mike Pesca (16:57)

Francis Lee responds by highlighting the political motivations behind enforcing strict NPIs. Leaders may have been driven by the desire to appear decisive and in control, sometimes at the expense of a balanced consideration of all societal impacts (18:19).

Cultural and Political Polarization: Suppressing Dissent

A significant portion of the conversation addresses how polarization and groupthink within public health and political institutions stifled dissenting voices. Francis Lee expresses astonishment at the uniformity of opinion among public health officials and experts, noting a lack of skepticism and an unwillingness to question the prevailing strategies (36:39).

Quote:

"We’re astonished, frankly, at the amount of groupthink... an unwillingness to question them in public."
— Francis Lee (36:39)

Susan Ettlinger concurs, noting the absence of major conferences or public debates that could have facilitated a more nuanced discussion about the pandemic response, thereby exacerbating the societal divisions (40:36).

Comparative Analysis: The U.S. vs. Other Democracies

The panel explores why the United States experienced higher COVID-19 death rates compared to other advanced democracies like Canada and several European nations, despite similar or even more stringent NPIs. Susan Ettlinger emphasizes that the divergence became pronounced in the second year of the pandemic with vaccine rollout differences rather than the initial NPI strategies (16:25).

Quote:

"When you go back to the war on terrorism... the real question is, are we even properly grappling with the question?"
— Mike Pesca (14:57)

Leadership and Communication: The Role of Political Rhetoric

The episode critically examines how political leaders communicated and implemented pandemic policies. Mike Pesca draws parallels between pandemic leadership and military command, suggesting that leaders treated the pandemic as a war, focusing solely on defeating the virus without weighing other societal costs.

Quote:

"The public health community saw themselves as in a war... but there was no reckoning with the trade-offs."
— Mike Pesca (23:51)

Francis Lee adds that wartime metaphors prevailed, fostering an environment where unity was prioritized over critical debate, effectively marginalizing dissenting opinions (27:16).

Suppression of Dissent and Groupthink

The conversation delves deeper into why dissenting voices were suppressed during the pandemic. Francis Lee points to the strong partisan divisions and the association of dissent with political opposition, which led to the discounting of critical perspectives regardless of their validity (34:12).

Quote:

"There were people calling for that to be closed down... but there was one conference at Stanford."
— Francis Lee (40:54)

Susan Ettlinger reflects on the lack of academic and public forums to debate the effectiveness of NPIs, suggesting a missed opportunity for a more balanced and comprehensive policy response (40:36).

Conclusion

The episode concludes by emphasizing the need for accountability and a reexamination of pandemic policies. Macedo and Lee's work serves as a critical lens through which to understand the failures of political and public health strategies during COVID-19, urging for more balanced, evidence-based approaches in future crises.

Final Thought:

"We're barely scratching the surface of a profound period in American politics and world politics."
— Susan Ettlinger (40:36)

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Francis Lee (12:57):
  "There’s no evidence that it worked... we just don't see a payoff in terms of morbidity or deaths from COVID in those states that had the longer school closures, the longer lockdowns and the more stringent application of these measures."

• Mike Pesca (16:57):
  "Whose fault was it that we just ignored the risk part of the risk-benefit analysis while we were going through it?"

• Francis Lee (36:39):
  "We’re astonished, frankly, at the amount of groupthink... an unwillingness to question them in public."

• Mike Pesca (23:51):
  "The public health community saw themselves as in a war... but there was no reckoning with the trade-offs."

• Susan Ettlinger (40:36):
  "We're barely scratching the surface of a profound period in American politics and world politics."

Closing Remarks

The episode of The Gist with Steven Macedo and Francis Lee offers a thought-provoking analysis of the political and societal failures during the COVID-19 pandemic. By challenging the efficacy of widely implemented NPIs and highlighting the suppression of critical discourse, the conversation underscores the importance of balanced policymaking and the dangers of groupthink in public health crises.

For those interested in a deeper exploration of these themes, "In Covid's Wake, How Our Politics Failed Us" by Macedo and Lee is a recommended read.