The Gist: "Nick Foster on How We Really Think About the Future"

Host: Mike Pesca
Guest: Nick Foster (Designer, Writer, Author of "Could, Should, Might, Don't: How We Think About the Future")
Air Date: August 28, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Mike Pesca interviews renowned designer and futurist Nick Foster about his new book, "Could, Should, Might, Don't: How We Think About the Future." The episode explores how modern society conceptualizes, predicts, and misreads the future, examining the cultural influences (particularly science fiction), flawed frameworks, and the challenge of thinking rigorously about what lies ahead. Throughout, Foster offers a sharp critique of both popular futurism and the tech industry’s repetitive, fantasy-laden visions of tomorrow, encouraging listeners to adopt a more grounded and critical approach to futurist claims.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

How We Visualize and Discuss the Future

• Book's Intent and Misconceptions

  • Foster intentionally wanted to avoid writing a manifesto or how-to manual for futurism, aiming instead to examine the process of future-thinking itself.
  • "I wanted to take a step a bit further back and just talk about the process of thinking about the future. Like what goes on in our brains and why do we reach for certain things." (Nick Foster, 11:20)
  • Science fiction’s dominance over “future imagery” is critiqued for leading to clichés like blue and purple cityscapes and endless flying cars. The book cover intentionally defies these tropes.

• Futurist Archetypes: "Could, Should, Might, Don’t"

  • Foster introduces four archetypes for future-thinking:
    • Could: The realm of inventors and designers, possibility-driven.
    • Should: Philosophers and ethicists, focused on obligation and ideals.
    • Might: Actuaries and risk-assessors, probability-based.
    • Don’t: Skeptics and gatekeepers, cautionary or reactionary.
  • "They each have their own benefits and drawbacks...by pulling out those caricatures, we can perhaps understand the territory a bit more." (Nick Foster, 15:15)

The Influence of Science Fiction on Futurist Thinking

• Sci-Fi’s Double-Edged Sword

  • Science fiction shapes both utopian and dystopian visions ("could" and "don't" archetypes respectively).
  • At tech companies (e.g., Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Tesla), sci-fi references are embedded in culture, subtly pushing teams to think along established narrative lines:
    • "All of the meeting rooms [at Google X] were named after sci fi robots, like R2D2 and HAL 9000...They nudge a culture and say this is what we care about and think is important." (Nick Foster, 18:33)
  • Such references serve as substitutes for rigorous thinking about the future; when new ideas are required, teams reference films like "Minority Report" or "The Jetsons" instead of real social or historical considerations.

• Repetition and Fantasy

  • "The challenge with that kind of [‘could’] futurism is it's very heroic...But if you go to Google image search...it's a really sort of repetitive, homogenous purple and blue flying cars, you know, future cities, scenes from Blade Runner, glass towers." (Nick Foster, 18:28)
  • This tendency gives the illusion of creativity and progressiveness while recycling narrow concepts.

The Pitfalls of Prediction and Accretion

• Skepticism About Making Predictions

  • Foster sees prediction as unreliable: past oracles like Nostradamus were vague, and even tech’s “data-driven” strategies become little more than fiction when projecting too far ahead.
  • "When the solid line turns to a dotted line, it ceases to be data. It's a story at that point." (Nick Foster, 22:18)
  • Much predictive work, whether utopian or dystopian, is storytelling masquerading as forecast.

• Accretion: The Overlooked Reality

  • Most futurist visions forget that the future carries vast remnants of the past—physical, social, and cultural.
  • Pesca and Foster discuss how mundane realities (e.g., coat hangers, toilet paper) persist despite technological leaps.
  • "It's like sedimentary rock. It just sort of piles up and... a lot of the normal things haven't really changed...all around [the future] are a billion other things that it will interact with." (Nick Foster, 24:44)
  • Citing "Blade Runner" and "Black Mirror" as examples, Foster notes that thoughtful science fiction incorporates remnants of the past, lending realism and resonance.

The Democratic Deficit in Futurism

• Who Gets to Imagine—and Make—the Future?
  • Pesca raises a point seldom covered: those paid to think about the future (e.g., Silicon Valley elites) often have outsized influence, while everyday people are major, if uncredited, agents of change:
    • "Is it actually the case that the rich and the people who are paid to think about the future are the ones who define the future?...I think they [the public] have a greater say than they're given credit for." (Mike Pesca, 26:55)
  • Foster acknowledges his own privilege and stresses the need for more democratic futurism.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Futurism Business Model:

  • "I deliberately didn't want to do that [write a how-to book]...we need a reassessment actually, that none of us...is particularly good at thinking about the future."
    (Nick Foster, 12:57)

• On Silly Sci-Fi Tropes in Tech:

  • "If I ask my Google home outside like a question about HAL 9000, it'll give me a sci fi inflected answer back...this culture of science fiction is sort of a misreading of science fiction too, which doesn't actually aim to predict."
    (Nick Foster, 20:21)

• On Prediction as Fiction:

  • "The point that I struggle with this type of futurism is...when the solid line turns to a dotted line, it ceases to be data. It's a story at that point."
    (Nick Foster, 22:18)

• On “Accretion” Over Transformation:

  • "The future keeps takes with it the past."
    (Mike Pesca, 24:41)
  • "...we're living in a world now where I have a phone...but I also have coat hangers and keys to the front door and, you know, toilet roll and all of the normal things that sort of haven't really changed for 20, 30, 50 years."
    (Nick Foster, 24:44)

• On Democratic Need in Futurism:

  • "Typically long term thought about the future has been part of only the largest and most..."
    (Nick Foster, 27:21)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [09:24] – Foster on avoiding sci-fi clichés (book design and content)
• [11:58] – Why Nick Foster rejects how-to and manifesto style books
• [14:43] – Introduces the "Could, Should, Might, Don't" framework
• [16:26] – Sci-fi's impact on our collective vision of the future
• [18:33] – The pervasiveness of sci-fi references in Silicon Valley
• [22:18] – The line between prediction and storytelling
• [23:41] – Pesca introduces "accretion" and the importance of the historical carryover
• [26:55] – Discussion of who gets to shape the future: elites vs. the everyday public

Conclusion & Takeaways

Nick Foster prompts listeners to rethink what it means to "think about the future," to resist seductive but shallow imagery and narratives, and to reclaim a more diverse, critical, and realistic assessment of change and continuity. Rather than being led by sci-fi fantasies or overconfident forecasts, both individuals and society should question underlying assumptions, pay attention to history's enduring presence, and acknowledge the role all people have in shaping what comes next.

For those interested in a richer, less cliché vision of the future—and a toolkit for thinking more clearly about it—Foster’s work and this episode of The Gist are highly recommended.