The Gist — “Nicole Gelinas on Crime, Bail, and Mamdani's Vibesy Criminology”

Host: Mike Pesca
Guest: Nicole Gelinas, Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute
Date: November 17, 2025
Length: ~30 minutes (main content begins at 11:04)

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the contentious debate around crime trends in New York City, the causes behind the recent uptick in violent crimes, and the policy impact of bail reform. Host Mike Pesca interviews Nicole Gelinas of the Manhattan Institute to analyze the conflicting narratives between the new mayor, Zoran Mamdani, and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch—especially around whether the pandemic or bail reform drove higher crime rates. The conversation unpacks statistical realities, policy missteps, and the cultural gaps in how New Yorkers feel and talk about safety.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Split: Interpreting the Crime Surge

• Initial Setup:

  • Recent NY Times op-eds offer diverging views: one suggests policing isn’t the only answer (urbanists: crime is low, focus on other issues) while another champions traditional law enforcement (“more police, fewer murders”).
  • [11:13] Nicole Gelinas: Explains, “This is not just a New York Times issue, but it reflects a broad debate… where you have one side, the urbanists… and the other side, the people who say, yes, crime has gotten much worse over the past six years and this is having an impact on our quality of life.”

• Statistics:

  • From 2019–2021, murders in NYC jumped by 53%, the sharpest modern increase.
  • Past three decades saw consistent declines; pandemic changes marked a sudden, exceptional reversal.

2. Public Perception vs. Statistical Reality

• Everyday Risk:

  • Even if total incidents are statistically rare, the randomness of violence on subways (e.g., 10–12 murders per year) plants fear, especially compared to crime-scarce European transit systems.
  • [15:14] Nicole Gelinas: Illustrates: “Someone got shot at a Queens poker game at 2am… I’m not going to be there. Whereas… a woman gets pushed to her death on subway at 9:45 in the morning, like, well, that’s kind of something I have to put in my head.”

• Randomness is Frightening:

  • Pesca: “Almost every subway murder gets huge amounts of attention because… random killings very much frighten people.” [14:52]

3. Is Bail Reform to Blame?

• The Debate:

  • Commissioner Tisch argues bail reform drove the spike; Mamdani and some analysts attribute it to pandemic upheaval, suggesting the pattern was national.
  • Pesca frames the key question: “If you disagree on these fundamental things, especially if there’s really good evidence… we’re going to get some insight as to who might be right in trying to bring it down.” [19:10]

• Gelinas’s Analysis:

  • “It’s true” only a small percentage of those released went on to commit violent crimes, but bail reform made it much harder to detain repeat offenders or those violence-adjacent. [20:52]
  • Most US states let judges weigh a defendant’s risk; NY does not.
  • The CUNY John Jay study: Mandatory release increased recidivism among high-risk defendants, especially those with a history of violence.
  • [25:08] Nicole Gelinas: “Mandatory release provisions increased recidivism for people with substantial recent criminal histories… statistically significant increase in pretrial violent felony recidivism.”

4. The Role of the Pandemic

• “The pandemic caused a lot of dislocation and disruption… but bail reform and also the release of thousands from Rikers made it much, much harder to rein in that increase.”
• Factors: closed schools, inadequate mental health support, unsupervised youth, empty subways, and system inertia combined in a “perfect environment” for opportunistic and mental-health-driven crime. [27:24]

5. The Clash of Studies & “Vibesy Criminology”

• Brennan Center and others claim “bail reform does not increase crime,” but even their footnotes frequently acknowledge exceptions for high-risk, repeat violent offenders.

• [29:57] Gelinas: “Most of these studies… have a sentence or footnote… for the repeat violent offenders, bail reform made it worse... just throw another massively flawed piece of reform at it and expect everything to work itself out.”

• Many missed chances—whether due to judicial discretion, parole violations, or lack of mental health intervention—reflect systemic failures, not just policy flaws.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Nicole Gelinas, on the crime surge:
  “You can go back to when the statistics start to become reliable in the mid-1960s. You will never see that big of an increase in the murder level in such a short time span.” [12:10]

• On comparing NYC to other global cities:
  “Point me to another successful global transit system that regularly accepts 10 to 12 murders a year on the subway… There is absolutely none.” [15:38]

• The Bail Reform Catch-22:
  “If you’re walking down the street and you randomly punch a woman in the face versus… a bar argument… These are very different qualitatively. And this system does not allow to differentiate between these things.” [23:08]

• On study ping-pong:
  “Study after study. Ping pong, ping pong, ping pong… For the repeat violent offenders, bail reform made it worse because you reduced or eliminated the capacity to keep these people in jail.” [29:57]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction/Setup: 01:04–11:12
• Crime Trends/Statistics: 11:13–16:22
• Public Perception and Risk: 14:52–16:41
• Causes of Crime Surge – Pandemic vs. Bail Reform: 19:10–27:24
• Analysis of Studies/Data: 25:08–32:17
• Conclusion/Thank You: 32:17–32:23

Tone & Language

The conversation is sober yet accessible, blending empirical analysis with lived urban experience and moments of dry New York humor. Pesca’s approach is probing but casual, while Gelinas is measured, bringing data to an emotionally-charged debate.

Summary for the Uninitiated

This episode offers a nuanced, evidence-based discussion about NYC’s recent spike in violent crime—pitting pandemic effects against bail reform in the hunt for causes. Gelinas persuasively argues that while most released on bail are not a danger, the inability to detain obvious repeat violent offenders is at the root of increased disorder. The clash between public anxieties, policy ideals, and statistical outcomes is laid bare, making this episode essential listening for anyone interested in urban policy, criminal justice reform, and what makes a city feel safe.

[Advertisements, intros, and outros omitted.]