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GIST is looking for a Social media Manager. Do you want to get into the fast paced world of deciding if I look good on horizontal or vertical video? Well then this is the job for you. It's actually an excellent opportunity. It's a good staff to work with if you listen to the show. If you know someone who's good at social media, if you understand how YouTube can be leveraged to reach the youths, please get in touch with us. We are at the gist@mike pesca.com if you have any interest or know of someone with interest in this part time job Social media manager the gist@mike pesca.com It's Tuesday, August 19, 2025 from Peach Fish Productions. It's the Gist. I'm Mike Pesca. You know what I'm worried about as concerns Donald Trump? Well, you know, besides the venality, the lawlessness, the total disregard for the Constitution, really not even understanding it or knowing it exists, it's it's this many of his plans have a timeframe for implementation far beyond the three more years, three and a half years, three and a quarter years that he's going to be in office. And I worry about this given the nature of Donald Trump. The sui generis nature, not generous, but sui generis guys, one of a kind. Not in a good way when it comes to this analysis. I mean tariffs insofar as he understands them, his theory of the case and even the best case scenario on tariffs, which is to say a contradiction. What all of the economists say is that the pain is immediate. The pain in 2567 when he's president will be felt higher consumer prices, retaliation from Canada and China. His whole theory of tariffs with decent enough trading partners like Canada, like the European Union is un I'm going to impose them and they will hurt us both. But I can outlast you on this and then we'll be bringing manufacturing to America. This isn't going to take place. I could stop the sentence there, but this isn't going to take place in one or two or even three years. We're not really going to see the relief. The deals will still be in dispute. The short term growth will be negative. Now, I know he will try to spin all that, but it is also true and I do think he understands that. I think even if Trump's theory is right, it's going to take eight to 11 years for Trump and his tariff, his signature issue that caused short term pain to be felt in any sort of positive way. And he knows that he could finagle and lie, but he does know that this is true. He's not stupid. I know many haters of Donald Trump say he's stupid. He's a lot of things and he's impulsive and he's illogical and, and he's a bullshit artist, but he's really not stupid. There are two other policies that are very much like this. The whole civil service purge. It's not going to be. I mean, he and his people will find it satisfying, but it's not going to yield any sort of good things for society or the economy in the near term. It's disruptive if there is a good benefit, not just the savings, but the flourishing of the economy under diminishing of regulations that will occur in the medium to long term. And so does Naito's realignment. You're not going to a whole new world for the better in the near term if Naito is realigned. So I do really worry about the payoff horizon going past 2029. And so you got to worry that Donald Trump, who is not the sort of person a to say my successor will carry my mantle. And that will be fine with me because I care about my legacy and other people getting credit. Not that kind of guy. And the other kind of guy that he is not is to say, and if my enemies, if they win and if my rivals get their way, well, that is the process and that is democracy. He's not that kind of guy also. So I think that there is a decent chance, given how much effort he's put into programs that will not pay off until after his term of office ends, that one of three things will happen. One, the Republicans win fair and square or somewhat fair and square is trying to do away with say, mail in ballots. He can't do it. Congress does it. But I understand that he's trying to touch the levers of the electoral process in ways that are within the electoral process, if unprecedented. And that is to try to get a successor who carries out his agenda in office, that's one, that's the best case scenario. Some other Republican does the same things and he gets some reflected glory and, you know, probably has invested in some of these industries. The other one is a Democrat wins and he does not accept the election results. We've been there. We'll see what he does. And the third thing is sort of a two way he runs again. So I don't think these things are likely to happen. They're hard to execute. And so out of keeping with everything that came before, though not out of keeping, I think, with what Donald Trump would try, but I think there's some chance, 35, 40% chance. And so this is why when I just look at, not his bluster, not his disregard for norms or civic institutions or the Constitution, when I look at his policies and where he's putting his chips and how long the payoff is, I think we're right to be worried. All along I've said there are really two thresholds. Will we have fair and honest midterms? Will we have a fair and honest presidential election in 2028? I don't mean completely fair and honest as defined by Stacey Abrams. I mean within the bounds of trying to gain an advantage. January six being a bit outside those bounds, but even going further would bother me. So if we have those fair elections, everything else Donald Trump would have accomplished within his, and I put accomplish in quotes within his tenure, I think can be countenanced and gotten over. But if we don't have those actual elections in a year and a third and then ultimately in 2028, it's a disaster, we need to take that extremely seriously. I am not sanguine about the possibilities as I look more and more as to tariffs and the other economic and other programs he's fighting for. Just want you to know, wanted to let you in on my thinking about that on the show today. Well, that was nationally thinking a lot locally. Mom Donnie, this Mom Donnie guy, he's up in the polls. He'll probably win. He's got some rivals. Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, Curtis Sliwa, a rogues gallery, if you will. But now joining me is the roguish and delightful Harry Siegel. He is an editor of the City. It's kind of true. But the City's also the name of a publication. He hosts one of the panelists on the best New York City podcasts out there. FAQ nyc. He's with us for the whole show. Sit back and delight in the wisdom, the very Gotham esque wisdom of Harry Siege. For all of the parents out there with teenagers, we know you're already trying to keep a million different things under control. Cash App is here to help make sure your team's money and their spending isn't adding to that craziness. The idea is to meet 13 through 17 year olds where they are to educate them to work with their knowledge of apps already. It comes in different colors and patterns to fit their style. They'll like it. I like getting money. Apparently teens like colors and styles. It's cooler than regular apps. The platform has a lot of tools that help teens develop real world financial habits. It's inviting. Teens are app natives. Maybe you're not. Cash App bridges the divide and you know it's not there to take advantage of anyone. It really is a learning tool. It's functional. There are no surprises. They don't hit you with monthly fees or minimum balances or hidden charges. I got to tell you, I just got a call from my child at college saying can you send me cash? And he literally meant cash in the mail. And I said no, we need an app for that. We need a Cash App. It will now be a large part of our life. Skip the stress and give your teen a way to learn financial responsibility with no hidden fees. Download Cash App and get started today. For a limited time only new Cash App customers can use our exclusive code to earn some additional cash. For real. Just download Cash App Use our exclusive referral code Family10 in your profile. Send $5 to a friend within 14 days and you'll get $10 right into your account. Terms apply. That's money. That's Cash App. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's bank Partners. Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton bank member FDIC direct deposit roundups, overdraft coverage and discounts provided by Cash App, a Block ink brand. Visit Cash App Legal Podcast for full disclosures. As summer winds down and fall is right around that corner, just peeking out the tendrils of your hair, feeling its lovely breeze throughout. Quince is there for you, refreshing your wardrobe with staple pieces for the season ahead. I in summer used linen shorts. Linen shorts. Timeless, classic, artisan and oh so luxurious. They stack up against similar luxury options quite well in terms of design, craftsmanship and especially value. You know, Quince also has a line of bedding, towels and cookware. Your closet will thank you how about on your next trip? Want some quints Luggage Quince bags to check in to carry on carry on Quince within a quince quince is there for you. Elevate your fall wardrobe essentials with quince. Go to quince.com/the gist for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. That's quince.com the the gist to get free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com/the gist Harry Siegel is here. Thank goodness. Because we need to analyze New York City politics. Harry is, I'm not going to call him the Dean. He's just the best. He's the host of the FAQ NYC podcast and he's also an editor at an outfit called the City, which guess what it covers. Yeah, it's the City. We're going to talk about a guy named Zo Run Mom Donnie, a whole bunch of other stuff. Harry, welcome to the Gist.
