Podcast Summary:
The Gist – Ryan Evans on Drones, Ground War, and Ukraine’s Fight for Survival
Date: September 10, 2025
Host: Mike Pesca
Guest: Ryan Evans (CEO & Founder, War on the Rocks)
Overview
In this episode, Mike Pesca dives into the state of the war in Ukraine, focusing particularly on the evolution of drone warfare, the grinding land conflict, and the political and tactical realities facing both Ukraine and Russia. The featured interviewee is Ryan Evans, an expert on modern warfare and founder of the influential “War on the Rocks” platform. The discussion brings clarity to what is truly shaping the war beyond daily headlines, exploring whether battlefield events or deeper strategic factors will determine Ukraine's fate as the conflict drags on. The episode critically examines leadership decisions, Western involvement, and the limits of high-profile technological strikes.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Recent Cross-Border Escalation and U.S. Politics
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[01:09–04:43] Mike Pesca Opening:
- Russia recently sent 19 drones into Polish airspace, resulting in a tense NATO response.
- Pesca breaks down potential Trump reactions to Russian provocations, highlighting how different stances might embolden or deter Putin.
- American and Western responses are scrutinized for both their performative and practical strengths/weaknesses.
Quote:
"Every part of Trump's decision tree will have a Putin counter reaction."
— Mike Pesca [01:29] -
Media Sensationalism Versus Reality:
Pesca corrects media mischaracterizations of Polish officials’ statements, pointing out that actual European leaders often sound less inflammatory than U.S. news clips suggest.Quote:
"The way I heard it, that is not the thumb in the eye that ABC portrayed. That's essentially extending a hand, encouraging, not insulting."
— Mike Pesca [04:43]
2. Status of the Ukraine War: Drone Warfare and Ground Reality
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[12:01–14:29] War’s Current Phase:
- Evans asserts drone warfare has been a key aspect for some time; the real shift is political, not technological.
- The ground war has become attritional and stagnant, marked by very limited advances for Russia and ongoing Ukrainian resilience.
Quote:
"These attacks that Russia launches on Kyiv and other cities keep getting bigger, but they are fundamentally using the same systems."
— Ryan Evans [12:31] -
Ukrainian Manpower & Mobilization:
- Ukraine has not mobilized its youngest eligible citizens, leading to an older average age at the front and limiting their offensive potential.
- The fight is increasingly characterized as one “being fought largely by middle aged men.” [14:11]
-
Russian Tactics & Attrition:
- Russia’s advances are slow but steady; they exploit gaps using large numbers of drones, especially fiber-optic linked FPV drones immune to standard electronic countermeasures.
Memorable Image:
"Across fields in Ukraine it looks like giant spider webs have settled over fields and it's just the remnants of these old fiber optic cables from drones."
— Ryan Evans [14:05]
3. Strategy and Impact of High-Profile Attacks
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[15:17–16:32] Russian Drone Strikes:
- These are intended as terror operations targeting cities and civilians but are largely ineffective in breaking Ukrainian morale.
- Russia has shifted to targeting government officials, but without major strategic breakthroughs.
Quote:
"These are basically terror operations... but that's not working. The Ukrainians are actually very dedicated and resolved to staying in the fight."
— Ryan Evans [15:47]
4. Key Factors Shaping the War’s Outcome
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[17:35–18:15] What Matters?
- Fundamental variables are manpower, fortifications, and munitions, not drones per se.
- Russians appear willing to absorb far higher casualties than Ukrainians, as most Russian troops come from non-elite, non-core demographics.
Quote:
"Putin has been willing to accept very high casualties, which seems to indicate that he doesn't really care that much about the losses."
— Ryan Evans [18:15]
5. Tactical vs. Strategic Successes and Leadership Decisions
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[19:54–22:02] Tactical Innovation and Bakhmut:
- Russia centralizes and scales drone production better than Ukraine, which relies on a patchwork of independent efforts.
- The defense of Bakhmut was a strategic failure for Ukraine; President Zelensky’s insistence on holding it led to the loss of veteran units needed for later offensives.
Quote:
"It chewed up Ukraine's most experienced units that were left at that time... a huge error and it chewed up a lot of manpower."
— Ryan Evans [20:33]
6. Ukrainian Counterattacks & Political Effects
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[23:45–26:35] Operation Spiderweb & Large-Scale Ukrainian Attacks:
- Ukrainian ingenuity and patience led to successful strikes on Russia’s bomber fleet, but Evans cautions these don’t shift the war’s fundamentals unless repeated and broadened.
- Such attacks boost morale and Western support but are not a replacement for regaining territory.
Quote:
"If Ukraine is able to keep delivering strikes like this... that could start to hurt Russia a lot more. And I hope that's what we see."
— Ryan Evans [24:15]
7. Critique of Zelensky’s Leadership
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[26:35–28:35] Zelensky’s Strengths and Flaws:
- Praised for rallying Ukraine and earning global support (“Churchillian”), but recent political decisions—especially on mobilization and anti-corruption efforts—are criticized as major mistakes.
- Notably, Zelensky removed a popular and effective general, a decision Evans frames as politically and strategically regrettable.
Quote:
"What he did when the war started... was extremely admirable... Where he's been less Churchillian is... on the domestic front."
— Ryan Evans [26:45]
8. U.S. & Western Aid, Policy, and Impact
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[28:35–29:34] U.S. Aid & Weapons Restrictions:
- The West’s fluctuating support is disruptive, but ongoing restrictions on weapon use—especially rules against using Western arms for deep Russian strikes—matters more than funding cycles.
- Evans advocates lifting these as a key to future Ukrainian effectiveness.
Quote:
"The Trump administration should have removed the Biden-era restrictions on deep strikes into Russia using Western weapons."
— Ryan Evans [28:46]
9. Military Aid: F-16s, Cluster Munitions, and the Donbas
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[29:34–30:47]
- F-16s seen as symbolic/political more than tactically significant.
- Evans argues, “cluster munitions would have been more important [for Ukraine] than F-16s.”
Operations Outlook:
- Russian offensives against the Donbas will intensify before winter, but major changes in the front lines are not expected.
10. Prospects for Negotiation and the War’s Outcome
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[31:15–33:47] Diplomatic Stalemate:
- Russia not interested in negotiation; seeks Ukraine’s capitulation—not meaningful security guarantees.
- Summit agreements (like Alaska) serve as distractions, not solutions.
Quote:
"Russia is not interested in actually negotiating. Russia remains only interested in a capitulation."
— Ryan Evans [31:49] -
What Will Decide the War?
- Evans stresses that long-term endurance (financial, logistical, and societal) trumps simple territorial exchanges.
Quote:
"It's about Ukraine's ability to stay in the fight... That's what will decide this war, just as it decides almost all major interstate wars."
— Ryan Evans [33:47]
Notable Quotes
- "Every part of Trump's decision tree will have a Putin counter reaction." — Mike Pesca [01:29]
- "This is really a war being fought largely by middle aged men. And this is the result of a deliberate decision in Ukraine." — Ryan Evans [14:11]
- "I don't think this endangers his [Putin’s] regime in the foreseeable future." — Ryan Evans [18:15]
- "I think it was. I mean, the real damage of Bakhmut, this was an utter failure. And it's Zelensky’s responsibility." — Ryan Evans [20:33]
- "F-16s were much more of a political signal...cluster munitions would have Been...more important for the ground war." — Ryan Evans [29:37]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 01:09 — Pesca’s opening, Russia’s drone incursion into Poland, Trump’s potential responses
- 04:43 — Importance of distinguishing media spin from diplomatic statements
- 12:01 — Evans joins: The escalation and reality of drone warfare
- 13:25 — Ukrainian manpower, mobilization choice, and aging military
- 14:27 — Russian tactics, drone saturation, and ground realities
- 15:47 — Russian strikes on cities: Strategy vs. effect
- 17:35 — Manpower & munitions matter more than headlines
- 20:33 — Bakhmut: Ukrainian command errors and consequences
- 24:15 — Ukrainian strikes in Russia: Operation Spiderweb and its limited impact
- 26:45 — Zelensky: Leadership strengths and weaknesses
- 28:46 — U.S. aid, weapons restrictions, and strategic possibilities
- 29:37 — F-16s, cluster munitions, and battlefield impact
- 31:49 — Diplomacy: Alaska summit and Russia’s true negotiation stance
- 33:47 — Evans on “how this war will be decided”
Conclusion
This wide-ranging conversation with Ryan Evans cuts through headline noise to reveal a sobering picture: despite technological innovation and occasional spectacular strikes, the war in Ukraine remains mostly a contest of endurance, manpower, and material—where strategic and political decisions can be as decisive as military innovation. Leadership decisions, both Ukrainian and Western, remain under scrutiny for their long-term consequences, while Russia’s willingness to absorb losses sustains its grinding advances. Tactical headlines may offer morale boosts, but, as Evans notes, lasting resilience and logistical stamina will determine Ukraine’s survival.