The Gist – "Steve Hayes & Damon Linker: The Hole Truth"

Date: October 28, 2025
Host: Mike Pesca
Guests: Steve Hayes (CEO and Editor, The Dispatch), Damon Linker (Senior Lecturer, UPenn; Author, Notes from the Middle Ground Substack)

Episode Overview

On this brisk and thoughtful episode of "The Gist," Mike Pesca convenes two sharp political commentators – Steve Hayes and Damon Linker – to delve into the mixed feelings and prioritization dilemmas that face critics of Trump-era governance. Rather than offering a classic left-vs-right showdown, the panel explores the challenge of distinguishing between “3 out of 10” and “11 out of 10” threats to democracy, with recent headlines about the White House East Wing demolition serving as a prime example. They examine how visuals, public opinion, and congressional responses interplay with democratic guardrails, ultimately raising existential questions for American institutions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Theme of the Day: Mixed Feelings & Prioritization of Outrage

Timestamp: 09:00

• Pesca sets up the tone as one of “mixed feelings,” noting that Hayes and Linker aren’t ideologically miles apart, and raising the challenge of issue-fatigue and triage in the current political climate.
  • “Today the theme of the show will be mixed feelings because… today’s political environment is not always or exactly a left-right fight in any way.” (09:00)

2. The East Wing ‘Hole’ – Visuals, Substance, and Authoritarian Warnings

Timestamp: 10:00–21:45

• Anne Applebaum’s critique of Trump’s unannounced demolition of the East Wing is used as a launching pad for debate.

• Linker argues anti-Trump commentators overstate the incident, treating every Trump move as near-authoritarian.

  • "I just wish my friends on the anti-Trump center left and center right would… pick their battles a little bit more reasonably, rather than sounding like all he has to do is breathe in order to, you know, provoke the fourth outraged response of the week.” (12:03, Linker)

• Hayes agrees, rating this as a “3 out of 10” issue – a clear procedural violation and lie, but not close to the most dangerous events.

  • “If it's the case that every time there’s a 3 out of 10... you treat it like it’s an 11 out of 10… that’s not what this is. It’s bad… but it is not… killing people without providing evidence that they’ve committed a crime. It's not… any of those things.” (15:10, Hayes)

• Pesca probes whether the focus on “the hole” is an attempt to finally find a visual outrage the public will react to, since so many non-visual scandals don’t register (13:36).

• Linker (echoed by Hayes) worries that campaign operatives mistake “visuals” for true persuasion and undermine substantive arguments, muddying the case against Trump.

  • “The case against Trump always tends to be… a sort of high-minded thing… that’s always been the way people have approached criticizing Trump. Now maybe that's not the way to go. But… you can’t combine that with then throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks.” (20:07, Linker)

3. Boy Who Cried Wolf & Media Coverage Dilemmas

Timestamp: 21:55–29:36

• Hayes notes a “boy who cried wolf” problem, using the example of “Nazi salute” hysteria at Trump’s inauguration, where focus on symbolic episodes distracts from more consequential actions.

  • “Treat the 3 as a 3 and treat the 10 as a 10.” (23:10, Hayes)

• They discuss incidents where Trump’s words were misrepresented or weaponized (“bloodbath”, “good people on both sides”, “Russia, if you’re listening”), with Linker and Hayes both cautioning against over-interpretation of Trump’s imprecise, joking style.

  • “He’s just being stupid and silly and trying to make a joke out of the thing that Democrats were extremely on edge about…” (26:18, Linker on the Russia joke)

4. Trump’s Relationship to Public Opinion & Manipulation

Timestamp: 31:02–40:48

• Hayes contends that Trump isn’t indifferent to public opinion; rather, he has “supreme confidence” in his ability to mold it, evidenced by sustained Republican belief in the “stolen election.”

  • “It is that he has supreme confidence that he can manipulate public opinion… Trump’s ability to take something that is not just a stretch, but totally preposterous, evidence free, and build a case around it…” (31:13, Hayes)

• Linker is skeptical of issue polling, arguing it doesn’t translate into actionable electoral pressure; Trump’s approval ratings remain remarkably stable in the 43–45% range despite constant controversies.

  • “He doesn't sink below 43% approval. Like, how does he do it? It's a bizarre, bizarre thing.” (39:31, Linker)

5. Is the “All Vibes” Era a Trump-Only Phenomenon?

Timestamp: 40:08–42:32

• Pesca asks if the “post-truth, all vibes” phenomenon is unique to Trump or extends to other politicians.
• Both guests suggest Trump’s combination of outrageousness and rhetorical slipperiness lets him “have it both ways” in a way few others could.

6. The Blurring of Seriousness and Satire – 2028 Run Speculation

Timestamp: 45:25–51:29

• They discuss Trump’s musings (and surrogates’ harping) about running for a third term in 2028 – is it a joke or a genuine threat?

• Hayes takes Trump seriously and sees “permission structures” being built by Republican loyalists (e.g., Lindsey Graham), who latch onto these floats to curry favor.

  • “Part of this is, you know, again, Trump being sort of musing aloud, being funny, knowing that resistance types will hear this… but I think he would like to remain as president.” (46:24, Hayes)

• Linker believes institutional checks (namely, the Supreme Court) would ultimately prevent a scofflaw third term, but recognizes Trump gets political mileage by trolling his critics with the notion.

  • “He loves that it drives people like Steve and me… and a lot of his resistance enemies absolutely around the bend…” (50:37, Linker)

7. Congress, Abdication, and Institutional Decay

Timestamp: 51:29–59:04

• The group scrutinizes House Speaker Mike Johnson, seen as willfully abdicating Congressional authority to Trump, and the risk it poses to long-term checks and balances.

• Hayes cites Johnson’s transformation from “intellectual conservative” to Trump’s enabler, prioritizing personal advancement over institutional responsibility.

  • “I don’t think he cares. I think he gets up every morning [wanting] to ingratiate himself with Trump and eliminate any problems that Trump will cause him.” (53:40, Hayes)

• Linker warns that historians may look back on this era as defined by legislative surrender and executive overreach, more so than judicial failure.

  • “If this episode… ends with the American system… more authoritarian… the big factor… will be the breakdown of the separation of powers in this period and the ceding of power to the executive branch by the legislative branch…” (56:27, Linker)

8. Goat Grinders (Pet Peeves/Closing Thoughts)

Timestamp: 59:04–68:19

• Hayes: The misuse of 'literally' to mean its opposite:

  • "Almost every single time someone says this, they misuse the word. And I was listening to a fantasy football podcast last night about your beloved Jets, and the person was talking about Woody Johnson... and this person says Woody Johnson literally threw Justin Fields under the bus. You think he actually did?" (60:40, Hayes)

• Pesca: The phrase ‘harm reduction community’ – a term he finds vague and unhelpful, obscuring practical efforts.

• Linker: The toleration of widespread homelessness in major liberal cities—he critiques local unwillingness to assert the common good over personal freedom:

  • "I just have to say I don't understand why liberal city dwellers tolerate living like this... I speak as a liberal who would like to reform my fellow liberal political culture that there is sometimes... a hesitancy to use political power to improve the quality of the common good…” (65:03, Linker)

Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------|-------| | 12:03 | Linker | "I just wish my friends on the anti-Trump center left and center right would… pick their battles a little bit more reasonably, rather than sounding like all he has to do is breathe in order to... provoke the fourth outraged response of the week." | | 15:10 | Hayes | “If it's the case that every time there’s a 3 out of 10... you treat it like it’s an 11 out of 10… that’s not what this is. It’s bad… but it is not… killing people without providing evidence that they’ve committed a crime. It's not… any of those things." | | 20:07 | Linker | "The case against Trump always tends to be... a sort of high-minded thing... you can’t combine that with then throw spaghetti at the wall and see what sticks." | | 23:10 | Hayes | "Treat the 3 as a 3 and treat the 10 as a 10." | | 31:13 | Hayes | "It is that he has supreme confidence that he can manipulate public opinion... Trump’s ability to take something... totally preposterous, evidence free, and build a case around it..." | | 39:31 | Linker | "He doesn't sink below 43% approval. Like, how does he do it? It's a bizarre, bizarre thing." | | 46:24 | Hayes | "Part of this is... Trump being sort of musing aloud, being funny, knowing that resistance types will hear this... but I think he would like to remain as president." | | 50:37 | Linker | "He loves that it drives people like Steve and me... and a lot of his resistance enemies absolutely around the bend..." | | 56:27 | Linker | "If this episode... ends with the American system... more authoritarian... the big factor... will be the breakdown of the separation of powers... and the ceding of power to the executive branch by the legislative branch..." | | 65:03 | Linker | "I just have to say I don't understand why liberal city dwellers tolerate living like this... I speak as a liberal who would like to reform my fellow liberal political culture that there is sometimes... a hesitancy to use political power to improve the quality of the common good…” |

Important Timestamps

• Mixed Feelings / No Left-Right Battle: 09:00
• Anne Applebaum East Wing Outrage: 10:00
• Where to Focus Outrage (3 vs 11 out of 10): 15:10–16:30
• Visuals, Substance, & Campaign Tactics: 18:00–21:45
• Media Coverage & Boy Who Cried Wolf: 21:55–23:10
• Misinterpretation of Trump Quotes: 23:12–29:36
• Trump & Public Opinion: 31:02–39:31
• All Vibes Era? Trump-Specific?: 40:08–42:32
• Contender for 2028: 45:25–51:29
• Congressional Abdication & Institutional Risk: 51:29–59:04
• Goat Grinders (Pet Peeves): 59:04–68:19

Tone & Takeaways

• The conversation is pragmatic, sharp, and frequently self-aware, with all three participants skeptical of performative outrage and eager to make nuanced distinctions among a deluge of scandals.
• Both Hayes and Linker urge vigilance against Trump’s more dangerous authoritarian threats, but caution against “crying wolf” for every breach of norm or protocol.
• The episode is permeated by a sense of informational overload and the difficulty of getting the public or institutions to respond proportionally.
• The dialogue closes on a more personal, slightly lighter note with each panelist’s "Goat Grinder," before returning to a sober acknowledgment of the remaining stakes and uncertainties.

Summary prepared for readers who have not listened to the episode—faithfully preserving the speakers’ tone, priorities, and central concerns.