E (34:17)
And now the spiel. The Supreme Court's October session starts today. On the docket, some interesting cases. Colorado's ban on conversion therapy, transgender athlete cases out of Idaho and West Virginia, a Louisiana Voting Rights act case and a Rastafarian whose head was shaved in prison. No Rosta, no cry. But mostly I and I think most court watchers or authoritarian fretters are watching the shadow docket. This is the not at all nefarious sounding term for temporary rulings before courts can get to the real thing. Here's an L A Times headline. Trump's executive powers face test second sentence. Chief Justice John Roberts and his conservative colleagues have given no sign so far. They will check President Trump's one man governance by executive order. Well, you know, he is the president, so that's that's the only man or person who could try to attempt that governance. But also they have given some signs. For instance, he hasn't won on everything. For another, they don't always explain their rulings but in public. And sometimes they do. And the explanations which are sometimes also embedded in past rulings have, if not a logic then a through line to them. And the through line isn't necessarily we want to let Trump win, though others, including Katanja Brown Jackson says no, what you're doing is you want to let Trump win. The question I have, and I am among those who probably is on the non Freddie side of the authoritarianism is upon us continuum, but certainly open to the best arguments thereof. So the question I have is what to think about the shadow docket? Is the grand worry about it justified? And will the Trump wins usher in some version of authoritarianism in which there is no clawing back the society we once knew? Or will it be more the case that it's bad news for an FCC commissioner here, a former Department of Education worker there? I have some answers. So Trump did win 84% of the shadow docket cases. But keep in mind they drop the dogs. The drop the dog strategy means they take the cases to the Supreme Court that they think they could win. And so far that is 21 victories, 19 in a row by a lot of counts. They did have about 80 losses from lower courts that they didn't even attempt to get the Supreme Court to overturn. So 21 temporary victories today on the Gist list I linked to a very good Reuters article which I'm going to talk about and add to if you're interested in subscribing to the Just List free today. Text Mike to 33777 so very commercial. Anyway, what the Just List Reuters article does is it lists some of the reasons why the Supreme Court ruled the way it did. And before I even get to that, I did find another case where it was a Trump win at the Supreme Court. But it wasn't even the case that the dissenters were all the liberal justices or even only liberal justices. Justice Sotomayor in one of the cases, which was Trump v. American Federation of Government Employees, this was about the executive firing government employees. She said, I think pretty sound logically the plans, the firing plans themselves are not before the court at this stage and thus we have no occasion to consider whether they can and will be carried out consistent with the constraints the of of law. So that lower court ruling was overturned. I mean she's pointing to a sloppy judge ruling. That seems something even a liberal justice should do. The Reuters article said that the court identified specific errors by federal judges in four cases, all right, that twice issued opinions that lawsuits challenging a Trump policy were brought in the wrong lower court. They twice predicted Trump would eventually win. Wait a minute. You're allowed to do that? Yeah, that's a standard test for winning on the emergency or shadow docket is not the only test. But they can look ahead to the future and say, well, when this all plays out, we think the President's going to win. It's obvious that the person who asked for the stay is going to win. So we're going to put the stay in place now. Otherwise the eventual winner will be harmed because he won't have or we won't have, as the people who elected him, the benefits of his policy. And by the way, is the Supreme Court right to predict they're going to win? Yeah, probably. They are the sixth in the six. Three. Katanji Brown. Jackson even complains about this. In one dissent that I came across, she was making a Calvin Ball analogy, you know, that Calvin and Hobbes thing. And she said there seem to be only two rules and one is that there are no rules and the other is that the administration always wins. Wins. So what I'm saying, to go back to my original premise, when the Supreme Court issues a stay and says, yeah, we think the administration is going to win, they're probably right. But let's continue. Reuters found that there were a couple cases that involved Trump's firing of Democratic officials from federal agencies that it will potentially overturn. This is the Humphreys executor case. You know, any time I could talk Humphreys executor, I'm going to talk Humphreys executor. This is my pledge to you. So you add it all up. A bunch of these shadow docket cases seemed decently or reasonably reasoned. And I found that one, I mean, I found that it was quite publicly listed where Sotomayor and Jackson disagreed with each other. But there are a whole bunch of cases, including some of the ones I mentioned, that might represent giving the President too much authority. Even if this is in line with age old debates that have always been had between conservatives and liberals on the court and has nothing to do with Judge Roberts seeking to overturn our democracy or Justice Alito being corrupt or anyone being in the pocket of MAGA or the administration. When you have enough conservatives on the court, they're going to enact conservative jurisprudence. And the Trump administration might take advantage of such conservative jurisprudence. By the way, there were many things that Biden tried to do which was in line with, say, the expanded powers of the judiciary. Now, when everyone hears this, I don't know, I have people I talk to who tsk, tsk, and say that I'm Essentially under panicking. I'm a classic under panicker. Yeah, that's probably true. The fact that I've always been right and no one asked me if Osama bin Laden had plans to attack the United States before 9 11. So we can't review the game film and see if I would have gotten that one wrong. But the fact that we live in panicky times and not panicking is usually not just the best but the correct assessment. Also the fact that we always think we live in exceptional times and it's all going to seed or pot or hell based on this, the crossroads or the pivot point we're right at, I don't know, I tend to take a longer view. It might be an under panicky view. But let me leave you with a good quote I came across from Bob Bower. He was writing about the emergency docket. He's former White House counsel to Barack Obama. Also collaborates with a smart guy, smart lawyer, very smart lawyer named Jack Goldsmith, who very critical of Donald Trump, very worried about Donald Trump seizing too many powers, but also at the same time does look at the shadow docket and say, yeah, I don't know if this is the authoritarian keystone we've been looking at for. So here's the Bauer quote. Accusatory rhetoric raising questions about the political or personal motives of justices, whether in the majority or the dissent, connects only with two publics. The segment that intensely dislikes particular decisions and welcomes these kinds of attacks. And another that will be confirmed in its belief that the democracy debate is a sham warped by political agendas. Expert chatter about the conservative majority as partisans in robes who lie down for the president or the dismissal of the dissenters is motivated by an anti Trump agenda does not in these fraught times serve the wider public well. I am not a lawyer. I am not a legal expert. I am someone who interviews lawyers. But I speak for the wider public when I say the analysis of the shadow docket as a vector to rush to the pronouncement that the Supreme Court is illegitimate has great costs and those costs might be worth bearing. But right now, with the current question marks about what these rulings will be, I would say we're not there yet. And that's it for today's show. Corey Warr is the producer of the Gist. Ashley Khan does our coordination of production, which is one way to say it. Jeff Craig runs our socials. Kathleen Sykes helps me with the Gist list. Michelle Pesca helps more than helps, really orchestrates it all from above. Pulling the strings sort of a Svengali in robes. When she wears a robe, a bathrobe, sometimes it's white, it's not black. And thanks for listening.