
McKenzie Wilson of Blue Rose Research joins to dissect Democrats’ branding failures, from alienating language to ignoring cost-of-living pain. She explains why Gen Z may be drifting rightward, why “when we all vote we win” no longer holds, Plus:...
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Mike Pesca
GIST is looking for a social media manager. Do you want to get into the fast paced world of deciding if I look good on horizontal or vertical video? Well then this is the job for you. It's actually an excellent opportunity. It's a good staff to work with if you listen to the show. If you know someone who's good at social media, if you understand how YouTube can be leveraged to reach the youths, please get in touch with us. We are at the gist@mike pesca.com if you have any interest or know of someone with interest in this part time job Social media manager the gist@mike pesca.com It's Friday, August 22, 2025. From Peach Fish Productions, it's the Gist. I'm Mike Pesca. See you later alligator. And at breaking news tonight, a judge has ordered the so called alligator Alcatraz to be shut down in 60 days, barring any more new detainees from being transferred. Another carefully Trump initiative that didn't pass legal muster. Somehow shocking Alligator Alcatraz shut down over environmental concerns. You know this is exactly what Ezra Klein warned us about, the alligator abundance agenda. There it is in the flesh. So much red tape, not to mention steel bars. It is kind of weird right, that this is how they got alligator Alcatraz, this is how they nixed it. It's not weird that the inattention of the Trump administration was the er, cause, but the specific that the deprivation and horrible conditions for humans now wasn't what they were looking at, it was the potential harm done to the orchid. Right? We throw these humans in terrible, possibly unsanitary, certainly overcrowded conditions. The excuses but they're predators. Then we close it down to protect the Florida panther, an actual literal predator. And if you look at migratory patterns may have come across the border at some point. Hey look, if it was the case that this facility was giving rise to the cries and howls and sufferings of human beings. I could live with that. But disturbing the migratory pattern of the snowy egret shut it down. Judge Kathleen Williams of the federal District Court in Miami, an Obama appointee, which of course, Ron DeSantis pointed out partly granted a preliminary injunction requested by environmental groups in the Miccosukee tribe, whose members live nearby. It turns out that Alligator Alcatraz sits amid protected lands that are part of the fragile Everglades system. Just this language, the partial thing, the preliminary thing, I have to wonder, the shutdown of Alligator Alcatraz, will it last? Maybe if Trump officials can get their shit together, it will reopen. Okay, that won't happen. Maybe this will just get appealed to a higher court and they throw out the ruling because, meh, me, I mean, they'll have better justification for that. But a lot of times the higher courts go with essentially me. And if that happens, it will be much to the human rights activists and possibly the egrets regret. On the show today in the spiel, it is an Antoine Tig. No little cinnamon gum freshens breath longer than an Antoine Tig. But first, Mackenzie Wilson is director of external affairs and message strategy at Blue Rose Research. What does that all mean? Well, maybe my message strategy isn't up to snuff. She is a person who looks at how the Democrats should talk and maybe even what policies they should adopt in order to, I don't know, get up out of that 29% approval rating range. Blue Rose Research is the firm founded by David Shore, who's been on the show before. He champions a policy that is sometimes called David Shore ism, which just means do popular things and talk about them and you might win an election. We will now discover if Mackenzie Wilson is in favor of Mackenzie Wilsonism. The very Wilsonian Mackenzie Wilson. Up next.
Mackenzie Wilson
Foreign.
Mike Pesca
Let'S map out this week's amazing destinations and travel tips.
Mackenzie Wilson
Honestly, Will, I didn't plan any trips, but I did switch to T Mobile with their new Family Freedom offer.
Mike Pesca
That's not the itinerary we're following.
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, I'm departing from AT&T and embarking on a new journey with T Mobile. They paid off my family's four phones up to $3200 and gave us four new phones on house.
Mike Pesca
Bon voyage.
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Mike Pesca
So I don't know if you knew this, but the Democrats didn't do so well in the 2024 election. I have some stats. There are a bunch of services that try to tell you how bad the Democrats did. And there's Catalyst, there's Pew, there are the ap. So when people combine all the stats, we see a decline in the voting of certain demographics, such as women went from Democrat to Republican. Democrats lost 4.3% of women and they lost 6.3% of urban voters and they lost 8.7% of black women and they lost 14% of black people overall. And they lost 21% of black men and 19% of Hispanic men and 18 every demographic except they made little tiny gains with white women. This is not good here too. Well, if you're a Democrat, you know, or maybe if you're a Hispanic man who wants his fellow Hispanic men to vote the other way. Joining me now is Mackenzie Wilson. She is director of External affairs and Message Strategy at Blue Rose Research. Mackenzie, welcome to the gist. Thanks for coming on.
Mackenzie Wilson
Thanks for having me.
Mike Pesca
So this was a trend that you all noticed. You and your boss and founder of the firm David Shore went on Ezra Klein talking about your own research and there were some bold huge numbers like Democratic Support dropped by 46 points among Hispanic moderates. Is this a story of different groups all deciding to run away from the Democrats? Or is this a story of Democrats lacking appeal and it just showing up in slightly different ways with different groups?
Mackenzie Wilson
That's a great question. I mean, so I think first of all, to start, I think that people think that this is just like a four year trend, right? And what happened in November is really a much longer trend than just this past election cycle. You know, for example, you mentioned losses with Latinos. If you remember from post 2016, there were all these think pieces about how Democrats were hemorrhaging support from Latino voters and how we were never going to recover. The scale of losses that we saw in 2024 was equal to that scale of losses. So we did that erosion once again, right?
Mike Pesca
We eroded and then we re eroded. We re eroded. I'm saying we. I will take a step back, but you guys are Democrats who want Democrats to be elected, correct?
Mackenzie Wilson
We are a Democratic research firm. And so, you know, I think that first of all, as we look across globally, incumbents across the globe, you know, have been seeing massive losses over the last couple of years. So it's not just a uniquely Democrats in the United States problem. However, you know, this is something we've been seeing over the last 10 to 15 years. The other thing you note was that young voters are moving away from Democrats at pretty alarming rates. You know, it used to be just kind of a, you took for granted that youth voters were gonna show up and vote for Democrats. Millennials were the most liberal generation in decades. And it looks like Gen Z is about to be the most Republican or most conservative generation in decades since the Great Depression. Yeah, it's not great for Democrats right now. Now I will say I think that all of this is not destiny. If you recall, during the Obama administration and during the Obama years, it used to be thought that great as the country was changing and becoming more racially diverse, Democrats wins for the next decades were just inevitable. There were a lot of Republicans freaking out about that at the time. And so it doesn't mean that all of this is destiny necessarily for 26 and 28, but there are some pretty clear alarm bells that we're seeing. The final thing I'll point out Mike, is that, you know, over the last election cycle, one of the things that we saw that was most interesting, you know, the two trends I just talked about are kind of, we've been seeing the thing that's really changed for Democrats is these low information voters. So you know, low propensity voters is what we call them on the data side.
Mike Pesca
Find a nice way to say that.
Mackenzie Wilson
It'S people that don't pay attention to politics and politely people that don't listen to this podcast. Right. Like it's people that simply don't care or think about this stuff.
Mike Pesca
Yeah, normal, hard working, non gist listeners.
Mackenzie Wilson
Dammit, normal people. Yes. And you know, it used to be if you could figure out a way to get them to the voting booth, these people who typically didn't vote, but if you got them into a voting booth, they were probably going to vote for Democrats and essentially that is just completely reversed. Those voters are now more Republican or more conservative. So if they are showing up, and as we've seen Trump is galvanizing a lot of those people to show up, they're voting for Republicans. And so what that means is that kind of, you know, this decade long truism for Democrats when we all vote, we win, is no Longer true. And so it means that Democrats are gonna have to really rethink their strategy over the next years, particularly as we head into the midterms next November.
Mike Pesca
Do you think that this will, that Republican mistakes might make up for Democratic deficiencies? Because I think that there's a lot of Democratic strategy which is to not engage with what you put out there for a number of reasons. One reason might be they don't want to endorse policies. They don't want to endorse because they think they're wrong policy policies. Another is the people who are decision makers got into positions of power because they're advancing, either through conviction or cynicism, they're advancing these policies that got them their power. It's very hard to shift course. But then they say, you know, Trump's going to go so overboard that do we really have to do soul searching and changing either on messaging or policies? We'll just let, to take one example, his Medicaid cuts turn people off and then we'll win elections that way. It's not the craziest idea in the world, is it?
Mackenzie Wilson
I think it's a fair question and I think you have to do both at once. Right? You know, I don't think definitely ideally, you know. So first of all, I think you raise a really good point where the administration right now, I think is, is making a lot of pretty strategic missteps. If I was a Republican strategist right now, you know, Trump's tariffs are incredibly unprecedent popular. We're starting only now to really see the effects. I think a lot of economists are talking about kind of the six months out that we'll start seeing. So then Christmas shopping will be really interesting in the next few months after that. But it is unsustainable for Democrats to not also be rethinking what issues we're prioritizing and what issues we make central to our campaigns. For example, you know, ahead of November, one of the things we kept seeing in survey after survey is just, you know, for the last few years, the only thing that voters across every demographic prioritize as their number one issue is the cost of living. And it's not just that. It's the cost of living is number one, the second most important issue is inflation. And the third most important issue is the economy. It's really the same the thing that.
Mike Pesca
Caused the cost of living, the rise and the meta construction that encapsulates the cost of living. Yeah, great.
Mackenzie Wilson
Correct. It's just cost of living three times. Right? And so this was, I think, a pretty red flashing light for Democrats and Republicans. And I think that, you know, quite frankly, regardless of ideology, regardless of partisanship, whatever party is able to adequately meet the moment right now and present policies and how they're going to take on the cost of living crisis that so many Americans are feeling right now is going to overperform next year in the next few years.
Mike Pesca
Yeah. So Democrats were against tariffs and there were the Trump tariffs and Democrats were against these Medicaid cuts and they were the Trump cuts. But in those instances, Democrats are on the right side of the issue, but it's not as if they have a positive agenda per se. Then you have Zoran Mamdani, sorry, sorry to be that guy from New York City who's trying to extrapolate this on a national. But he is talking more about a positive agenda for affordability and cost of living. I'll also say so is Jared Polis, but for some reason, mom Dharmi gets all the attention. Are there pitfalls? Are there traps? When you say my issue is going to be cost of living, but my solution is something that the electorate isn't ready for.
Mackenzie Wilson
That's an interesting question. And I mean, look, with, with Zoran Mandami, I think a rent freeze, for example, can potentially work in New York City where it is a plus 20 democratic liberal.
Mike Pesca
You mean be popular as opposed to work?
Mackenzie Wilson
Yes. Excuse me, I should be clear. Politically work I'm not going to wade into.
Mike Pesca
You don't have to. I would just say almost every economist in the world will say this is one of the most tried and true terrible ideas, but go ahead.
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, and it's well above my pay grade, I should say I'm not a policy person. But when it comes to, on the national side, I think looking at what we consistently see, and again, taking away how any of this is going to work, but raising the minimum wage, most people are just feeling like their paychecks are not going far enough. Taking on corporate price gouging, one of the interesting things and one of Vice President Harris's most popular ads ahead of November 2024 was really her just talking about taking on corporate, cracking down on corporate landlords and lowering the cost of groceries. Right. Sorry to interrupt.
Mike Pesca
I know you're not a policy person, but this is the one that the economists are the one or two. The economists all say these are terrible ideas. Price controls are just terrible ideas.
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, and look, I mean, I kind of think you could argue that was one of the problems from the Biden Administration. Right. It is very difficult to come up with policies that reasonably work on an actual practical level, you know, when you're experiencing inflation. The not comforting thing, having worked in an administration, is there aren't as many levers as you can pull, as you would expect or think of. I think it's a fair question, but one that right now, to your point, Democrats seem to be reorienting ourselves around thinking about these economic policies in much more depth than we, I think, have been over the last few years.
Mike Pesca
Yeah. And I'll acknowledge, and I've said this, I think, three times in the last week, I guess I'm so in love with my construction. But great politicians correctly diagnose the problem, great leaders solve the problem. But those are two different things. So it is true. I'm going to be nitpicky and say those aren't good solutions, but really, and this is something that your firm has emphasized, if you want to change everything, anything, you got to win. And the way to win is, as I see it, just at least correctly diagnosing the problem in a way that resonates with Americans, which is what Trump has done and which, as all the polling shows, the Democrats haven't done. One of the ways. Oh, sorry, go ahead.
Mackenzie Wilson
No, I just, as you were saying that, I mean, I think this is the Trump, you know, phenomenon, Right. That Trump has really. I mean, one of the things that we see right now with the electorate overall is this deep resentment towards elites. Right. One of the most, when we ask voters why they think the cost of living crisis is happening, we continually see that. It's this sentiment of feeling like leaders are just out of touch with what's happening and that, you know, this idea that, like, major corporations are kind of pulling one over on regular consumers. And so again, I kind of think this gets into what you're talking about, that regardless of partisanship, regardless of policies, you know, Zororan Mandami and Donald Trump could not be more different in what they are proposing. But ultimately, both of them really do come back to the cost of living is too high. And I think a lot of liberals like myself have a hard time acknowledging that when it comes to Donald Trump. But what the Trump team did really brilliantly over the last year of the campaign was, you know, really bring every issue back to inflation. And it was a big problem that Democrats did, couldn't meet the moment when that was occurring.
Mike Pesca
So what did Democrats do with the concern, the real concern, the acute concern? And this is a concern I share, that Trump is a burgeoning autocrat and he represents threats to democracy just doesn't seem. Well, you tell me, you do the research. This doesn't seem to play well. This doesn't seem to actually influence voters who are open to be influenced. Maybe the low information voters who only care, primarily care about cost of living. What's the advice there? Just mention it to Democrats. Sit on your hand. When it comes to the general election. How should Democrats tweak their messaging when what they really want to shout about is this very dangerous thing that's happening?
Mackenzie Wilson
And I mean, believe me, as a liberal who lives in Washington, D.C. right now, I completely understand that.
Mike Pesca
Congratulations on the newfound safety.
Mackenzie Wilson
Thank you. Yes, it's, you know, such a thrill being here right now. But no, I think it's a great question. You know, again, going back to last year, one of the things that is again, uncomfortable as a liberal Democrat myself, to grapple with is an understanding that a majority of the electorate saw Donald Trump as the extremist or, excuse me, saw Kamala Harris as the extremist and Donald Trump closer to themselves. Right. I think that voters who are struggling right now who, you know, just Americans who can't afford to go to the grocery store. I recently did some polling, and it's something like 15% of Americans are regularly at the checkout line putting stuff back because they can't afford what's in their cart. That's a real acute pain and crisis for a lot of people. And I think where voters didn't think that we were going to be able to meet the moment, were willing to put aside a lot of personal concerns that they had over Donald Trump. And we have to understand that if we don't acknowledge that pain that voters are going through and offer solutions to your point, we can't win elections and we can't stop what is happening. I mean, one of the things that's, like, very difficult to acknowledge is that, you know, Democrats don't really have any levers of power right now at all. We have lost the House. We lost the Senate. We don't have the judiciary. We keep seeing Trump packing the courts. And so one of the other things I would point to, especially for your listeners, is that when we ask people this idea of protecting institutions and whatnot, what we're seeing is that an overwhelming majority of Americans are feeling distrust in the system itself, distrust in the economy. And so it is very hard, I think, to want to protect the democracy or protect institutions that you feel like are not delivering for you or you're not seeing Any mileage out of right.
Mike Pesca
The populist moment butts up against the idea of protecting and preserving institutions and what has made the structure of the country so upsetting to most people These are things. Yeah, we could all square it in our minds but to especially the hardworking slash low information voter. When you say we have to protect the Department of Justice, they say to themselves A, it's irrelevant or B, where's that gotten me? What about how to talk about these things? So third wage is circulating a memo that's probably near and dear to the blue rose heart, which is here's some terms that Democrats progressives should not be using Privilege violence is an environmental violence. Dialoguing, triggering, othering, microaggression, aggression, holding space. Ooh, the cast of Wicked will have to pull back from that one. Body shaming, subverting norms, norming, subversions. No, I just put that out there. Systems of oppression. It goes on and on. Overton Window. It was all about Overton Window. Cisgender. That's going to be a hard one. Patriarchy critical to much of the critique. How I'm sure you agree with most of those. I don't know. Add one or take issue with one, if you will. Mackenzie, how important is that the words, the triggering words to everything you're talking about?
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, I'll come back to adding or subtracting, but you know, I think sometimes pollsters will be like there's a magic way that you can say something to make a policy popular or something. And I really don't subscribe to that because I think you have to get the policies themselves right or understand the overall sentiment. That said, the list that you just read off, part of the problem is that fundamentally it is all postgraduate or PhD level, either idealism or just sort of messaging. And in general, we can't talk about being the party of working class voters when people don't even understand what half of those words mean. I mean, you joked about the Wicked saying, right? But when you watch that actual interview, they talked about it afterwards. Neither of them knew what holding space even meant.
Mike Pesca
Oh, I didn't know.
Mackenzie Wilson
That's why they had this awkward moment is because they both were like, they think it's supposed to be emotional, but they weren't sure.
Mike Pesca
And so, oh, I thought it's like when you show up and you're a party of four, but one of you isn't there and you can't be seated. I didn't know any of that.
Mackenzie Wilson
I mean, so it's, I think in general sometimes we're starting to talk to a smaller and smaller portion of ourselves and not recognizing that we have to talk to every American. And you know, going back to again, I really don't want to harp on this too much, but the cost of living. Right. Like the how much you pay for your home, whether it's rent or a mortgage, that affects everyone. Right. Everyone goes to the grocery store. We have to think about the hundred percent issues and not issues that are, you know, only matter to a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate.
Mike Pesca
Yeah. So some of it is Democrats shouldn't be snobs. And if you're going to connect with people can't use words they don't understand. Right. But, but some of it is that some of these phrases are newfangled and don't strike the listener's ear as meaningful, but some of them are policies that progressives are deeply committed to take food insecurity, you could say hunger. But it's not really the case that people are starving or malnourished as we used to think of. But it is the case and people who are activists are very aware of this, that, you know, you might not know where your next meal is coming from and when. Times are tough as they were a few years ago, and maybe we'll get again food banks get more business because of, is it malnutrition and starvation? It actually is this concept of food insecurity. So if you throw that away, which is the best phrase, aren't you kind of giving up an issue and the other one is the LGBTQIA plus, I mean, all right, maybe you shave off the QIA plus, but you really, many, many Democratic activists want to talk about the LGB or at least the LG part of it. So there is my question. We all agree, don't be snobs, don't say things people don't understand. But should you also jettison certain policy positions that might not resonate with the public, but actually you are deeply convicted about. Is that advice for Democrats?
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, so first of all, I think even with both of those, I think sometimes we come up with catchy phrases. I mean, this is how you get into a defund the police. Right. Like we have to explain what we're even talking about. Right. And I think you even, you even described food insecurity as like you don't know where your next meal is going to come from. That's it. Right. That's. I think that resonates a lot more than food insecurity for people because a lot more people can identify with that second one. So. And with, you know, acronyms like LGBTQIA. First of all, I would say Congresswoman Sarah McBride did a really fantastic interview with Ezra Klein about, you know, queer issues in general and just how, you know, the queer movement needs to address this moment that we're in. But I think in general, again, we have to be coming back to these ideas or issues that matter for everyone because a trans person also has to afford their rent every month. Right. And if we're not creating an environment where every American can succeed, then we're really not doing our jobs as Democrats.
Mike Pesca
Here was another list put together by Rui Teixeira, who I know you know, and he cites your research a lot. And I don't know, you guys have probably done panel discussions together. And he talked about Democrats handling of culturally inflected issues, contrasting it with the famous sister soldier moment of Bill Clinton. And he runs down the list and he gives Democrats like a 1 out of 10. If the sister soldier moment was an 8 or 9 out of 10 trans issues, a few peeps quickly slapped down by the groups and party activists. Yes. And we had Seth Moulton on that happened to him Immigration. He says the message is everything Trump's doing is wrong will only cooperate with federal law enforcement when we feel feel like it. Crime not a problem. Everything's going great, especially in D.C. i'm not going to bore my listeners for with a fifth day of making this point. Race di is wonderful and will defend it to our dying death. Those who suppose the policies are racist and white supremacists. This is a variation of my last question, the importance of words. But do you think the importance of Democrats clearly separating themselves from some of these albatross issues is important? Do you think it's even possible? I mean, I know that Kamala Harris got upset and said I've said all these things, even though you could put the albatross of what she said during the 2020 race around her neck. And Joe Biden, or at least his advisers would just get so upset and say we don't believe in defund the police, but it still gets pegged to them. So do you think it's even possible to make to do this is the soldier moment in 2025?
Mackenzie Wilson
I mean, I first of all, I think it's possible I will say one of the things that we in a similar vein, I get a lot of questions about the they them ad that the Trump administration ran or the Trump team ran during the 2024 election. Right. Because I think it gets at sort of what you're asking. And what's interesting is that, to be clear, it's not that that ad didn't have an effect, because it did, but when you look proportionally, again, like what voters care about the most, it's even less on the Republican or independent side on those cultural issues than it is the really tangible policies. And so I think what has to happen first and foremost, rather than necessarily having these nitpicky internal fights about what social issues or exactly what social positions to be taking, we have to really rethink the DNA of the way we do our communications and constantly be bringing things back to, A, our best hits on Trump, which are, again, around tariffs, around these Medicaid cuts, but B, what we care about the most, which has to be cost of living. I think, again, Mondami has been doing a really good example of this where with just about every hit, he takes it back to his most important points. Or on the, you know, Trump, I think, is also a really great example of this communication. Every time, you know, the administration does a tariff announcement, it doesn't go well. There's a dip in his favorability. They do a massive ICE raid in a major city or bring it back to immigration, which is one of his best issues. Right. I always say this to Democrats, that it can feel boring sometimes as operatives or as candidates, to constantly be talking about your thesis, whatever it is, and in this case, I would argue, needs to be cost of living. But no one goes to see Elton John to go listen to the new stuff they want to hear Tiny Dancer. And, like, we have to start be creating our greatest hits so that people know and have familiarity with what we mean when we're talking about what Democrats really stand for.
Mike Pesca
Yeah. And if they sweep the country, I guess that's why they call it the blue states. I don't know. Is that somewhere in between greatest hits, maybe greatest hits, too. So what's the Democrats who don't hold power? What's their equivalent of the ICE raid or the sending in the federal troops?
Mackenzie Wilson
Yeah, I mean, I think Democrats have to constantly be bringing things back to health care. It is what we kind of think of at my firm as, like, it's not quite a trifecta issue because there aren't really three, but it's an issue where Democrats have a massive trust advantage on. And it's also incredibly important to voters. And we also have this really important media opportunity because, you know, Trump just made these massive Medicaid cuts. The other thing is people are Only thinking about this from tangible. People are going to lose their health care through Medicaid, but we're seeing rural hospitals closing, on the verge of closing. You could be doing events at just about every hospital in the country. You could be doing walkouts of nurses. You could be doing protests in the parking lots about these massive cuts that are going to have. I worked at the Department of Health and Human Services. Truly disturbing levels of impacts to our public health system. Let alone that the Republicans are also on track to let Affordable Care act tax cuts or tax credits expire at the end of the year, which means that a lot of Americans are about to see their monthly health insurance premiums go up every month next year, and they don't even know it's about to happen. And so there's a lot that we need to be doing, not just responding to what's happening in the news, but driving our own news cycles. And I think that's something Democrats really need to be thinking about and working on over the next few years.
Mike Pesca
Hey, on immigration, which you just said he's pretty, Trump is pretty popular on. And that's what the poll, that's what the empirical data says to me. But I see a lot of activists saying he's destroying his base and turning Americans away from him because of his excesses. On some of the stuff like Abrego Garcia or C. COD again, I'm not seeing that in the polls. But if we're talking about Hispanic moderates and we're talking about a shift from 62 to 16, might just, with that demographic, might we see some turnaround that could have an effect in midterms or 2028.
Mackenzie Wilson
It's, it's possible, I think. You know, again, you alluded to this, but when we look at Trump's favorability, one of the areas where he is strongest right now is on immigration. And I think, again, that is something that, as liberal Democrats, it is a tough pill to swallow. It is not something I particularly like, enjoy thinking about. But also, you know, as operatives, we have to understand the electorate as it is and the country as it is and not what we want it to be. And so, I don't know, I mean, I think that it's certainly possible, but even among a lot of Hispanic voters, you know, you also talked about moderate Hispanics. You know, we've also seen a lot of losses with conservative Hispanics as well. And so a lot of Trump's immigration policies, I'm not talking about maybe the most egregious stuff like sending 8 year olds to Mexico that are getting their cancer treatments. But a lot of it is popular. And so it's hard for me to say necessarily what demographics will, how certain demographics will necessarily respond to everything. But at least right now, that's not what we're seeing.
Mike Pesca
Okay, so last question. You probably going to want to consult with specific people, so you don't want to alienate anyone. But can you talk about someone who's possibly will run for president in 28 or maybe just is a good Senate candidate, say in 26, who is talking about things correctly? Maybe you don't even want to cite their overall agenda, but you saw a podcast appearance that you thought worked. You heard a sentence that you thought was brilliant and fits into this. Anything like that come to mind?
Mackenzie Wilson
That's a great question. Well, as you were talking, I think Andy Bershear has been doing a good job of kind of weaving Kentucky Governor. Kentucky Governor. Everyone keep tabs on him.
Mike Pesca
What's he do? What do you like about how he talks or what he says or what his policies are?
Mackenzie Wilson
Well, I think he constantly brings it back to he's unapologetic about being a Democrat, which I think is important. Some of this is like some of our values and ideals are baked in. But I also think that he understands where the Republican electorate sort of is. Again, red state Governor, he's talked about some of the ways that Democrats need to be rethinking the way that we talk about things. For example, he had a recent appearance where he was talking about we can't be saying justice involved individuals. We're talking about inmates. And that's okay, right? I think sometimes as Democrats or progressives, we want to be polite and also need to understand that when we, you know, alienate the people that we are trying to reach with the very language we are using, we are not just ineffective. We're, we're quite literally talking to a circle of ourselves.
Mike Pesca
Mackenzie Wilson is Director of External affairs and Message Strategy at Blue Rose Research. Thank you very much. Good messaging, excellent strategy, Mackenzie.
Mackenzie Wilson
Great. Thanks so much.
Mike Pesca
Let's map out this week's amazing destinations and travel tips.
Mackenzie Wilson
Honestly, Will, I didn't plan any trips, but I did switch to T Mobile with their new Family Freedom offer.
Mike Pesca
That's not the itinerary we're following.
Mackenzie Wilson
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Mike Pesca
Bon voyage.
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Mike Pesca
Hi, it's Ashpiel and it's an Antwin Tig, our name for recurring bad breath not due to illness. No that is of course simple chronic halitosis. The real Antoine Tig is a three week period. And that's why every three weeks like clockwork oh damn my clock stop working. We join you and talk about the things you wrote in about so recently I was saying one of the reasons why I'm not a huge believer in conspiracy theories is that no conspiracy theory that I'm aware of came true or paid off during my lifetime like the conspiracists would have had. And I asked you, my listeners, am I wrong about any things? And so am I wrong about any things? Just anything at all? And if you wrote in and you guys offered examples and a popular example, Drew Peterson was one who said this is perfect example Catholic Church child sex abuse conspiracy. The church conspired to hide from the public and move priests around different parishes. You know the details. Yes. So I have to make this clear. A conspiracy theory is different from a conspiracy. There was a conspiracy within the Catholic Church to hide their abuse just like there was a conspiracy within the Nixon White House to hide Watergate. But before Watergate was exposed to, no one was going around saying I think Richard Nixon is spying on the Democrats. I mean maybe someone was, but it wasn't a conspiracy theory that was out in the ether and the Catholic Church scandal. And listen, maybe I'm going overboard to try to prove my point and if you really agree or disagree also write in write into the gist@mike pesco.com but it is my more than recollection, I looked it up that there were instances of abuse of youngsters in the church here and there and often, though not very often, a priest would be either defrocked, moved out. Very few but some were prosecuted. But before the Boston Globe and the Spotlight series and others broke this wide open, I do not recall there being a conspiracy theory around Catholic Church abuse. I know that many were saying the Catholic Church is abusing or members of the Catholic Church are abusing our kids and something like they must know about it. I wonder how high it goes. But that's not exactly a conspiracy theory. A conspiracy theory would be some phenomenon either connected or unconnected to the church, is explained by all of these Catholic priests engaging in abuse and all of their superiors allowing it. But maybe I'm wrong, maybe it was a conspiracy theory. But a conspiracy is not the same as a conspiracy theory. And here are a couple others that were suggested by Sonia Saturday. The invasion of Iraq and subsequent Tampa toppling of Saddam Hussein under false pretenses was a conspiracy by senior members of the Bush administration. And there were plenty of people who said I don't believe this evidence. If it turns out that you shouldn't have believed the evidence, that's not a conspiracy theory. A conspiracy theory would have been something like the CIA purposefully planted false information against Saddam Hussein in order to, I don't know, some bank shot invasion of a rival country. It was a conspiracy, but it was not a conspiracy theory. Like the Enron scandal because the Enron executives were conspiring in the Wells Fargo scandal, which is people signing customers up with out their knowledge to credit cards for additional fees. These were all conspiracies, but they're not the conspiracy theory that explains other phenomenon, maybe unrelated phenomenon. Chemtrails is a conspiracy theory. Right? You see these things in the sky, oh, it's really poisonous gas or I don't even know what the conspiracy is. And I'm. You're going to thank me for not burdening you with it. A couple more people wrote in, it was rumored that Bonds, McGuire and Sosa were juicing that is taking steroids. It turns out they were again, not a conspiracy theory. Little bit of a conspiracy, but any time there was a wide rumor and the question was I think they're doing it, I think they're not. It's not a conspiracy theory. Someone else wrote in with Michael Jackson, long rumored to be a little weird, maybe a pedophile, not a conspiracy theory. Was he a pedophile? Well, during his lifetime he was acquitted of that. And after his lifetime, a pretty good HBO documentary. I interviewed the documentarians came out saying, and I think convincingly so, that he did it. But anytime anyone is accused of something and that person's in the public eye and there are debates about whether he did it or didn't do it and if you could prove it, that's not a conspiracy theory. Doesn't fit the definition of a conspiracy theory and Kerry writes in saying, isn't Hunter Biden's laptop a conspiracy that turned out to be kind of true? No, it would have been. Well, I don't know which part of it you think is true, Kerry, but the truth is that he really did have a laptop and it really was his and it had embarrassing information that was exactly what Bannon and Giuliani said it was. The conspiracy would have been if the alternative explanation were true, which that all the intelligence officials were right saying it was a Russian conspiracy. I'm not sure it would have been a conspiracy theory because that was so out in the open and maybe it fits in more with people arguing about things. So tell me what you think. If you want to tell me if any of these things are or are conspiracy theories by the correct definition. And they would be the Catholic Church, sex abuse scandal, Michael Jackson, sex abuse, Hunter Button laptop, juicing in baseball, invasion of Iraq. Do so the gist@mikepaska.com Tell me if you think they count as conspiracy theories. Two more things. Last one's big, but in the meantime I'll stop by someone on Blue sky one of many Brunos writes in to say, mike, I've loved your brand of truth talking for at least 10 years. Well, I've been doing it 12, so I think it's the last two that you take issue with. I prefer your funny but accurate takes on things over these podcasts any day. Listen one of many Bruno's don't take issue. You could listen to whatever you want, why ever you want and however you want. And the point where you said I was funny, really, I really like that. But you misunderstand what it is I do and how I think of the show, or how I think of just my orientation through life. The idea of punching left or not punching left is as foreign to me as if you were to say you should do more commercials for Chris Murphy for Senator or you should air some more ads arguing for Joni Ernst to retain her Senate seat. This is very, very separate from what I do. I don't look at if I am punching left, I don't look at if I am punching right. I just look at the phenomenon that comes across my radar and I say, is this accurate or not? Do I have something interesting to say about it? Do I think perhaps many of my listeners or people out there might be under a false impression or would at least benefit from a reorientation based on what my opinion is or just the points I have to raise so I would never, ever stop myself from criticizing someone or something that I think is wrong or worthy of critique because it is left or because it is right. I think the day after this Blue Sky Blue skeeted me. I did a critique of Matt Taibbi because I was just listening to the Matt Taibi YouTube and saying, I can't believe this is going on. Is he left? Am I punching left? Is he right? I have no idea. I've never thought about those things. I mean, I'm aware when I critique someone who's affiliated with progressives, I know I'm not stupid. But thinking about, I got to stop punching left because there is a burgeoning autocrat in the White House. Just not what I do. Just not how I think. And this is how I think I retain credibility. Although I've been thinking a lot about credibility lately, I used to think it was extrinsic, that it was this thing with qualities, and that if you behaved in a credible way and comported yourself with credibility, you would have credibility in the eyes of a third person. But now I think credibility is much more closely aligned to the subjective. So really, what we seek out in media is things that align with our worldview. So that's the definition of credibility. It doesn't matter. What I do is always to say, hey, this thing I noticed or came across that's wrong. You might be seeing. You might be seeing this, too. Maybe I can help you. Or maybe you'll want to stop listening. I understand. All right, here's the last section, and it is the most frequent comment I get. And I do not engage with it so often because it becomes tedious. In fact, many a Reddit page had been ruined by this becoming just the only subject of debate. But I was going to read a long email, one of many from a listener, but I'll just give you the sentence, Mike, you take Israel's side too much. So, on my substack on Pesca profundities, I recorded a video that addresses this at length. Here I will address this at less length. And it is this or I will just tell you, give you a hint of what I say in the video. One is there's something called what about ism? It's a propaganda tool, but it's also very human and very legitimate to sometimes say, wait, I'm getting criticized on this score. Or there is flack to be taken about this. This one issue is definitely a third rail. And yet there are other issues that are so similar to it that don't seem to bother anyone that much. It's hard not to note that when that occurs. So there's what about ism? I know that there are two ways to look at it, probably more than two. And another is the very prominent, I don't think the best definition of antisemitism, which is when Israel or Jews are held to a different standard than whoever else or whatever else you're talking about. I'm not sure that that is going on. I don't love that definition as the only definition. To me, it is just a warning against double standards. And yeah, if you use a double standard against women, you're probably sexist. If you use a double standard against black people, you might be racist. And if you use a double standard against Jews, there might be anti Semitism going on. So in my video I talk all about the standards used against Israel against the standards used against the rest of the world. I also say over and over again that what Israel is doing in terms of the starvation in Gaza is horrible. The Netanyahu government is very much to blame. When I had Haviv Retigger on the show, I said, how can this be happening? How they've bungled this response? We talked about it at depth, even if many critics did not like Haviv Rigger's overall perception. I've had many critics of Israel on the show. I've had humanitarian workers on the show. I don't want to get defensive and tell you everything that I have done on the show, but I don't always take Israel's side. I think I've been extremely critical. I know I have. Personally, I don't know how much I've said it on the show. Whenever it comes up in a warranted context, I will always talk about the horrors, the civilian horrors, how the civilians of Gaza don't deserve this. And I'll also acknowledge that Israel has made many, many mistakes in the war. But what I do and why I brought up the point of not wanting to engage in what about ism? It is very hard for me on the show. I've done this show since 2014 and the following wars have taken place. Ukraine talked a lot about Ukraine. Let's cabin that off now. The war in Tigray took place entirely during the course of the gist and there were at least 160,000 killed in Tigray, including fighters, but including tens of thousands of civilians. That's three times and upper bounds or 10 times the death toll of Gaza. The war in Yemen has taken place entirely within the gist's lifespan. I've done many segments on that. I talk a lot about it in the video. I summarize the segments I've done with Senator Chris Murphy with experts on counting civilian casualties. It's very similar the war in Yemen and the war in Gaza. There you have two very rich US allies, Saudi Arabia and Israel, each finding it unacceptable to have an Iranian backed proxy right next door sharing a border causing havoc. And as a result these two rich, well resourced countries have inflicted a lot of harm, a lot of civilian deaths. And the third huge conflict that has taken place is in Sudan and we don't even talk about Sudan. But Sudan, which is ongoing also has a much higher death toll than Gaza. Yemen by the way as a 377,000 death toll according to the United Nations. And 80,000 Yemeni children starved although that's according to an organization we don't really credit that much. The death toll in Yemen, the death toll in Tigray, the death toll in Sudan at least three times as deadly as Gaza. And the only reason I mentioned them is not to say and maybe you thought where I was going with this was what about those three worst conflicts? But it is to say I have tried to do segments on them with Yemen, I've done a lot with Tigray, I've only done two. When I searched the archives, you know, New York Times, the Daily only did one and part a fundamental part of my doing these segments to say why is no one else paying attention or why isn't the world paying attention? Well in Israel it is paying attention but that's a somewhat curious thing no one has ever written in saying, Mike, you're taking it easy on Ethiopia. Mike, you're taking it easy on Saudi Arabia. Mike, you're not doing enough segments on all these other places which we have chronicled are far more deadly than Gaza. I mean integray, it's not even just the deadliness, it's the horrors of the war. Here I'll read you a headline. Mass Rape, Forced Pregnancy and Sexual Torture Integray Amount to crimes against Humanity report. So maybe you're saying I didn't even know about that. That was 2022 when that war ended. How did I miss that? Let me tell you. That report was from a couple of weeks ago. That headline was from The Guardian of July 31 research documents horrific and extreme attacks by Ethiopian and Eritrean forces and warn that impunity has meant such atrocities are expanding to new regions. We do not pay attention to any of these wars except for the war in Gaza and So maybe you could argue that it's a good thing we're paying attention to the war in Gaza. We should be paying attention to these horrors. But a consequence of us not having paid attention to these other much more deadly wars is what's happening in Gaza seems shocking new sui generis, and of a category outside of war. The horrors of war, the omnipresent, familiar but horrific costs of war. And even we as Americans, Afghanistan, who went to war did not really pay attention because, you know, when we withdrew from Afghanistan and we withdrew from Iraq, all of the argument was framed as what it cost us, the United States in blood and treasure. How many civilians died in Afghanistan? I have the number from Watson Institute of Brown University, 46,319. And as of this estimate, in Iraq, 186,000 to 210,000 civilian died, not including the US military, not including the Iraqi National Police, not including the 40,000 36,000 to 43,000 opposition fighters, 200,000 civilians. So three or four times the death toll of Gaza. Well, civilians. Five times the civilian death toll of Gaza. And we were in these wars. And the United States did not hold themselves nearly as accountable as some people who have overtaken my Reddit demand I become accountable with Israel. So that's if not an answer, fully an explanation. And I know that answers with statistics or even reasoning are not enough to rebut two types of thought. And one is the legitimate. This is so anguishing. No amount of statistics will allay the anguish and horror that I see when I pay attention. And that is true. And I can't do anything about that. And the other, no amount of explanation, maybe those who criticize from a less consistent and less humanely motivated place or not. It's not for me to talk about the motivations of my critics. Now, I also know that I'm not going to be able to answer them, but I could just put this out there and share my thoughts with you. That's why we do the Antoine take. And one other reason we do the Antoine Tig is to reward the best listener, the best person I interacted with, maybe on social media. And there is a clear winner. This Antoine Tig. And I met her in Seattle and she knitted a pouch for me. I need a pouch. Turns out I'm an aspiring marsupial. Her name is Jennifer Hutch. She wrote such a nice note. The pouch was part peach and part fish. And so you give me pouch, I give you Lop Star Jennifer Hutch, you are the lob star of the Antoine Tig and that's it for today's show. Cory Wara produces the Gist and Astrid Green is our social media manager, though we are looking for a new one. Cory Wara produces the Gist. I mentioned that already. Ashley Khan is our production coordinator. Leo Baum. He's doing a big research project for me. Kathleen Sykes helps me write the Gist list. More than helps, really. I don't want to get too much under the hood. Truly essential to the Gist list. To subscribe, go to Mike pesca.substack.com check it out. Just check it out. See if you like it. We're talking about the mucus of the Native Americans today. You won't get that anywhere but us and the scientific community. Michelle Pasca is there, seeing all things, holding it together, much like the mucus of an indigenous American do. Peru and thanks for listening.
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Mike Pesca
You seek it out and download it.
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Host: Mike Pesca
Guest: Mackenzie Wilson, Director of External Affairs and Message Strategy at Blue Rose Research
This episode of The Gist explores the Democratic party’s ongoing struggle to appeal to the working class and low-information voters, particularly in light of their disappointing 2024 election results. Host Mike Pesca and guest Mackenzie Wilson dive into why Democrats are losing ground among key demographics, the pitfalls of post-graduate jargon, and what practical messaging and policy strategies might reverse these trends. Additional segments delve into the topic of conspiracy versus conspiracy theory, perceived media biases, and listener feedback around the Israel-Gaza conflict.
[05:52]–[10:14]
Democrats’ 2024 Election Performance:
Pesca opens with a stark breakdown: "Democrats lost 4.3% of women and... 21% of black men and 19% of Hispanic men... Every demographic except they made little tiny gains with white women. This is not good here too." (05:52)
Longer-Term Trends, Not Just 2024:
Wilson underscores that these declines reflect a “much longer trend than just this past election cycle” and that, compared to 2016, "the scale of losses that we saw in 2024 was equal to that scale of losses. So we did that erosion once again.” (07:30)
Younger Voters Turning Right:
“Millennials were the most liberal generation in decades. And it looks like Gen Z is about to be the most Republican or most conservative generation in decades since the Great Depression. Yeah, it's not great for Democrats right now.” (08:07)
Low Propensity/Low Information Voters:
Wilson notes a dramatic reversal: “It used to be if you could figure out a way to get them to the voting booth... they were probably going to vote for Democrats... now more Republican or more conservative.” (10:02)
Quote [10:14], Wilson: “It used to be if we could just get everyone to turn out to vote, we’d win. That is no longer true.”
[11:02]–[18:25]
Relying on GOP Mistakes?
Pesca asks if Democrats hope “Republican mistakes might make up for Democratic deficiencies.” He wonders if relying on opposition blunders allows Dems to avoid introspection and needed policy shifts. (11:02)
The Economic Issue Trifecta:
Wilson: “For the last few years, the only thing that voters across every demographic prioritize as their number one issue is the cost of living... Number two is inflation. Number three is the economy. It's really the same thing.” (13:16)
Popular vs. Effective Solutions:
The hosts debate the popularity—but also the limits—of ideas like rent freezes and price controls, which sound good to some voters but are problematic in practice:
Pesca [14:58]: "...almost every economist in the world will say this is one of the most tried and true terrible ideas."
Winning vs. Solving:
Pesca: “Great politicians correctly diagnose the problem, great leaders solve the problem. But those are two different things.” (16:31)
The ‘Trump Advantage’ on Diagnosing Sentiment:
Wilson explains that Trump’s campaign managed to connect everything to inflation and elite disconnect, striking a populist chord that crossed ideology. (17:11)
[18:25]–[21:19]
Autocracy Concerns Don’t Motivate Swing Voters:
Pesca asks why “threats to democracy” messaging doesn’t seem to resonate with the median or low-information voter. Wilson acknowledges the disconnect:
Wilson [19:11]: “A majority of the electorate saw Kamala Harris as the extremist and Donald Trump closer to themselves... If we don't acknowledge that pain that voters are going through and offer solutions... we can't win elections and we can't stop what is happening.”
Distrust in Institutions:
“An overwhelming majority of Americans are feeling distrust in the system itself, distrust in the economy. And so it is very hard... to want to protect the democracy or protect institutions that you feel like are not delivering for you.” (20:48)
[21:19]–[24:24]
List of Buzzwords to Avoid:
Pesca notes a memo with terms for Democrats to ditch: “Privilege, violence is an environmental violence. Dialoguing, triggering, othering, microaggression, holding space...” and more. (21:19)
Disconnect from Working-Class Voters:
Wilson is blunt: “Fundamentally it is all postgraduate or PhD level, either idealism or just sort of messaging. And in general, we can't talk about being the party of working class voters when people don't even understand what half of those words mean.” (22:41)
Not Even Activists Know the Lingo:
The host references a viral ‘holding space’ moment from the Wicked cast—neither actor knew what it meant, perfectly illustrating the alienation.
Need for “100% Issues”:
“We have to think about the hundred percent issues and not issues that are, you know, only matter to a smaller and smaller portion of the electorate.” (23:49)
[24:24]–[27:02]
Clarity in Messaging:
Wilson: “Sometimes we come up with catchy phrases. I mean, this is how you get into a defund the police. Right. Like we have to explain what we're even talking about.” (25:55)
Don’t Shy from Core Values But Stay Grounded:
“Some of our values and ideals are baked in. But... when we, you know, alienate the people that we are trying to reach with the very language we are using, we are not just ineffective. We're, we're quite literally talking to a circle of ourselves.” (34:53)
[27:02]–[32:20]
Is a ‘Sister Souljah’ Moment Possible Today?
Pesca wonders if Democrats can “clearly separate themselves from some of these albatross issues.” Wilson is pragmatic: “I think it's possible... but when you look proportionally... what voters care about the most, it's even less on the Republican or independent side on those cultural issues than it is the really tangible policies.” (28:35)
Stay on Message—Play Your “Greatest Hits”:
“No one goes to see Elton John to go listen to the new stuff, they want to hear Tiny Dancer... We have to start be creating our greatest hits so that people know and have familiarity with what we mean when we're talking about what Democrats really stand for.” (29:53)
[30:57]–[32:54]
Health Care as a Winning Issue:
“Democrats have to constantly be bringing things back to health care. It is what we kind of think of at my firm as, like... an issue where Democrats have a massive trust advantage... It's also incredibly important to voters.” (30:57)
Events & Grassroots Action:
Wilson suggests actionable tactics: hospital events, nurse walkouts, protests against Medicaid cuts and looming ACA premium increases.
Immigration Realism:
Even among Hispanic moderates, “a lot of Trump's immigration policies... are popular. And so it's hard for me to say... how certain demographics will necessarily respond to everything. But at least right now, that's not what we're seeing.” (32:54)
[34:09]–[35:52]
Andy Beshear (KY Governor):
Wilson singles out Gov. Beshear for “constantly bring[ing] it back to... being unapologetic about being a Democrat” while using language the electorate actually understands:
Wilson [34:53]: “He had a recent appearance where he was talking about we can't be saying justice involved individuals. We're talking about inmates. And that's okay, right?”
“Cost of living three times. Right? ...This was, I think, a pretty red flashing light for Democrats and Republicans.”
— Mackenzie Wilson (13:23)
“The way to win is, as I see it, just at least correctly diagnosing the problem in a way that resonates with Americans, which is what Trump has done and which, as all the polling shows, the Democrats haven't done.”
— Mike Pesca (16:31)
“A majority of the electorate saw... Kamala Harris as the extremist and Donald Trump closer to themselves.”
— Mackenzie Wilson (19:11)
“We can't talk about being the party of working class voters when people don't even understand what half of those words mean.”
— Mackenzie Wilson (22:41)
“No one goes to see Elton John to go listen to the new stuff. They want to hear Tiny Dancer. ...We have to start be creating our greatest hits.”
— Mackenzie Wilson (29:53)
“When we... alienate the people that we are trying to reach with the very language we are using, we are not just ineffective. We're, we're quite literally talking to a circle of ourselves.”
— Mackenzie Wilson (34:53)
[37:10]–[56:32]
Quote [54:41], Pesca: “I will never, ever stop myself from criticizing someone or something that I think is wrong or worthy of critique because it is left or because it is right. ...I got to stop punching left because there is a burgeoning autocrat in the White House. Just not what I do.”
For listeners looking to understand the strategic, linguistic, and policy crossroads for the Democratic Party in a post-2024 landscape, this episode is a candid—and at times, bracing—conversation about what it takes to reconnect with the American electorate.